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In all likelihood, Bud Selig won’t be hosting your fantasy baseball draft this year—but that doesn’t mean it’s not a big deal. You probably wouldn’t be reading this article if you weren’t in it to win it, and while it’s tough to win a league if your top picks don’t deliver, the best way to truly separate yourself from your fantasy league opponents is by nabbing some late-round value picks. 

The key to uncovering late-round draft day steals is to get a sense of what types of players tend to be undervalued in the fantasy marketplace. 

As I’ve detailed elsewhere, in reasonably shallow leagues sometimes it is the injury-prone player who can dramatically outproduce his draft slot while healthy.  Sometimes it is the former superstar many managers wrongly assume is now washed up.  Sometimes it is the famed “post-hype sleeper,” a relatively young player who did not initially live up to the hype but still possesses the talent that made them a touted prospect in the first place.  Sometimes it’s a player whose consistent production year after year is routinely under-appreciated, perhaps because the player isn’t “flashy” enough. 

For our purposes, “late-round” steals will only include players who are going in the 15th round or later (pick 169 onward) in 12-team standard leagues, according to either Mock Draft Central or Yahoo average draft position data.

On to the list we go.

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Everybody loves Brian Wilson because of that crazy beard. Mariano Rivera is…the…best…closer…ever. However, the closer position, perhaps more than any other position, provides more value picks. Average Draft Positions are from Mock Draft Central.

Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers: Broxton had just 22 saves last year, and even lost his gig to Hong-Chih Kuo, but was one of the top closers in 2009 when he saved 36 games and struck out 114 batters in 76 innings. He has the closer gig back, and if he can hold onto it, a return to 30 saves with 90 strikeouts is a strong likelihood. His ADP is 164, making him the 15th-ranked closer, though he has top-five potential.

Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies: Lidge bounced back last year to save 27 games and post a 2.96 ERA. With the Phillies four aces, he should get plenty of save opportunities. With an ADP of 192 he’s a terrific value.

Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds: Cordero has averaged 39.3 saves over the past four seasons. His WHIP is usually a little more robust than you want from your closer, which can explain his 196 ADP, but if you’re looking for steady saves, Cordero is a great option.

Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox: Thornton has been one of the best setup men in baseball the past few years and finally gets his crack at the closer position. Chris Sale is there if he falters, but he should be a solid value with his 203 ADP.

Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals: Franklin had 27 saves last year and 38 in 2009. His ERA jumped from 1.92 to 3.46, but his WHIP fell dramatically from 1.20 to 1.03. His ADP is 204.

Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins: Judging by Nathan’s 209 ADP, he’s at a discount because of concerns surrounding his return from Tommy John surgery. He was a top-five closer before being injured, so he’s worth the risk.

David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners: Aardsma comes at a discount (217 ADP) because he will miss the start of the season as he recovers from a hip injury. He had 69 saves the past two years so he should be a nice value pick when he returns.

The Rest

Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves (226) gets his first crack at closing.

Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (227) is wild, but will accumulate saves as long as he can lock down the gig.

Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates (230) has waiting in the wings if he struggles.

Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles (236) will get first crack at closing in Baltimore, but they have options if he isn’t up to the task.

Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays (248) faces a similar situation in Toronto.

Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros (249) is a decent option.

Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins (317) has anything but a firm grip on the Marlins’ closer gig.

Also check out:

2011 Fantasy Baseball Value Picks
2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Catcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Catcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings
2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Closer Rankings
2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Closer Rankings

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First of all, the Dodgers finished fourth in the NL West last season, so let’s not kid ourselves…this isn’t about Dodgers versus Giants. But what can the Dodgers do to win the division?

On paper, the team is good. But how can they separate themselves from the Giants and Rockies? All three have a legitimate ace. All three have offensive holes. So what’s the difference? 

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After a very successful first four and a half years to start his major league career, Los Angeles Dodgers’ closer Jonathan Broxton had a miserable second half in 2010.

Broxton was an All-Star in 2010, putting up great first half numbers with an ERA of 2.11, as well as 19 saves in 21 chances.  

However, after the All-Star break Broxton proceeded to post an ERA of 7.13 with just three saves in eight opportunities, and Broxton had more walks than strikeouts.

By mid-August, the Dodgers were falling out of contention and essentially went with a closer by committee over the last month and a half of the season, with Broxton, Hong-Chi Kuo and Kenley Jansen splitting the closer duty,

Broxton’s struggles came as quite a shock, considering he had done so well prior to the second half of 2010.

He still has a career ERA of 3.11 and a great strikeout to walk ratio of 3.2, but with Broxton expected to be the primarily closer in 2011, the Dodgers have to be ready to take action in case he struggles.

Here are 10 potential alternative plans the Dodgers can make if Broxton is ineffective in 2011.

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As fantasy baseball drafts quickly approach, I thought it would be helpful to provide a quick reference cheat sheet for closers. Remember, don’t take a closer too early as there is value to be had late in drafts.

NL East

The Atlanta Braves have yet to officially announce a replacement for the recently retired Billy Wagner, however we believe that Fredi Gonzalez will give Craig Kimbrel the reigns as the team’s new closer. 

The only other NL East team with a possible closer carousel is Washington, where second year player Drew Storen will likely start the season as the team’s closer. Tyler Clippard or Sean Burnet would likely replace Storen if the youngster runs into trouble.

NL West

The two safest and most valuable closers to own from the NL West are Brian Wilson and Heath Bell. Both players are coming off excellent campaigns in 2010 in which they each represented their respective team in the All-Star Game.

Newly acquired J.J. Putz will likely begin 2011 as the Diamondbacks closer, while Jonathan Broxton will continue in his role as the closer for the Dodgers. Broxton was temporarily replaced by Hong-Chih Kuo last season after some sub-par performances, which is something that Broxton owners should be aware of this spring.

NL Central

The top closer to own from the NL Central is Carlos Marmol, as he is a near-lock for 30-plus saves and has an impressive career K/9 ratio of 11.9. 

The Pirates have yet to announce their closer for 2011, however the smart money is on Joel Hanrahan. 

Keep an eye on both Aroldis Chapman and Kyle McClellan this season, as both players are young fireballers and the heir apparent to the starting closer.

Ryan Franklin was less than spectacular in 2010, posting a pedestrian 3.46 ERA with only 29 saves. Despite posting 40 saves last year, Cordero had a near 4.00 ERA and may lose the starting job to the fan-favorite Chapman.

This article was originally published on www.kramericasports.com, the home of free fantasy news, rankings and advice.

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Jonathan Broxton is really good. A year ago, few would have disagreed with the statement that Broxton was the best closer in baseball, and it seemed inconceivable that the Los Angeles Dodgers would let him go anywhere. Broxton struggled down the stretch however, and even lost the closing job for a while.

With Hong-Chih Kuo’s emergence as an elite reliever, the Dodgers’ ownership issues, and Broxton’s soon-to-be expiring contract Jonathan Broxton could be on the move. Despite a few blown saves in 2010, he’s still seen as an elite closer in Major League Baseball, and his age makes a long term contract feasible.

Where might Jonathan Broxton be headed? And will he be moved now? This summer? Maybe not at all? Let’s take a look. 

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The Dodgers know how they’re going to start the games, having assembled their starting rotation before December started, but how they’re going to end their games is another issue.

They enter the season with some big questions surrounding their closer, Jonathan Broxton.

Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com reports that Dodger officials will only be giving Broxton about a month’s worth of rope before they pull him from the closer’s role should he struggle, and it could be even less if Broxton doesn’t throw well in spring training.

Spring training might not be the best place to evaluate how a pitcher will perform during the regular season, especially not for a relief pitcher. However, if new manager Don Mattingly doesn’t like what he sees, there’s no reason to think he’ll give Broxton as much of a chance as Joe Torre did.

Broxton struggled for most of the season, finishing with just 22 saves and a 4.04 ERA.

Broxton’s up-and-down season finally came to an ugly end in late July. On Jul. 18, Broxton gave up two runs in the ninth against the St. Louis Cardinals, blowing a 4-3 Dodger lead and completing a four-game Cardinals sweep.

Less than two weeks later, against the San Francisco Giants, Broxton gave up an eighth inning, go-ahead two-run home run to Pat Burrell, sending the Dodgers to a 2-1 loss.

Manager Joe Torre finally removed Broxton from the closer’s role on Aug. 18. He would make just five more appearances the rest of the season, blowing two more saves in three chances. Broxton finished the 2010 season with seven blown saves overall, his fourth straight season with six or more.

Entering the 2011 season, Broxton is the Dodgers closer. Even if he doesn’t show much in spring training, he’ll likely still start the season in the ninth inning, but he’ll have to have a great April to stay there.

Making matters worse, Broxton’s name was thrown around in a rumored trade, which would have brought Prince Fielder to Chavez Ravine. That deal never really had any legs, but just the fact that Broxton might have been included illustrates how weak his position is within the organization.

For now though, Broxton is still in Dodger blue, but should he struggle again, the Dodgers have a few in-house replacements.

Hong-Chih Kuo took over as closer after Broxton was removed from the job. Kuo, who saved nine games in as many chances in Broxton’s place, was a 2010 All-Star and finished the season with a 1.20 ERA in 56 appearances and a 4.06 K/BB rate.

He is in the best position to take over for Broxton again if needed, but given his history of arm problems, may not be able to handle the job for as much of the season. His 56 appearances in 2010 were the most of Kuo’s career. Over the last five seasons, Broxton averaged almost 72 appearances.

Can Kuo handle being the Dodgers closer for most of the season and the workload that comes with it?

If not, the Dodgers will need a plan C, or even a plan D.

Plan C could start with Vicente Padilla, who made 16 starts for the Dodgers last season, going 6-5 with a 4.07 ERA. The Dodgers’ biggest strength right now is their starting rotation, and Padilla simply adds additional depth. The Dodgers can feel comfortable knowing they can expect at least 200 IP from each of their starters, meaning Padilla can stay fresh in the bullpen.

Should Broxton struggle early in the season, and if manager Don Mattingly is unwilling to push Kuo very far, Padilla could be a well-rested option.

Mattingly may have to employ a closer-by-committee if Broxton can’t get the job done, putting in whichever reliever has the hottest hand.

Broxton is the Dodgers closer, for now. The question is, how long will it last?

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With spring training quickly approaching, several questions continue to linger in terms of how the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 25-man roster will shape up once the players arrive at Camelback Ranch to prepare themselves for the long journey ahead.

Although general manager Ned Colletti has been very active this winter with numerous new additions to the club, there are still players on the free agent market available who may have the skills or abilities to complete a roster with a few holes.

Right now, the buzz around Dodgertown suggests that the team’s biggest needs are an outfielder with power, a number-two hitter in the lineup, and a left-handed arm in the bullpen. While Colletti may indeed explore free agent possibilities or entertain trade options, the organization is rich with talent and there are plenty of components to assemble a formidable 25-man roster.

Several roster spots may be determined by individual performances during Cactus League play, most specifically the fifth outfielding spot and the sixth arm in the bullpen. While there will be tight competition to finalize these several spots, the new coaching staff will also look to establish chemistry and generate positive momentum heading into Opening Day.

Assuming that the roster stays relatively the same as the season approaches, the following slides project all 25 players who may find themselves on the 25-man roster, show a handful of players who will be in heated battles to earn a place on the big league squad, as well as recommend a starting lineup for Opening Day on April 1.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers appeared to be in good shape up until last season.  In each of the previous two seasons, they had reached the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies. Then in 2010, the wheels came off and the Dodgers fell apart.  This caused them to trade Manny Ramirez away, eating a large sum of his money.

The Dodgers are still a team with a good source of options.  With the NL West being a wide-open field, the Dodgers can still make some noise in the future.  Their turnaround has to come now, though.  Another poor season won’t serve anyone in the Dodger organization well.  

James Loney could be the most trade-worthy Dodger of them all.  He’s the perfect trade chip at this point.  For both Loney and the Dodgers, this would be a positive move.  Loney could get a fresh start and the Dodgers could continue to rebuild—without Loney.  

The Dodgers haven’t gotten the power production that was expected from Loney yet. While Loney has hit for average in convincing numbers, his power hasn’t been on display in Los Angeles.  Also, his average his declined in each of the past four seasons.  

Though Loney is a solid hitter and fielder, the Dodgers could look at other options.  With an increasing annual salary, Loney may not be worth what he’s set to make in the future. That being said, 2011 will truly be a huge year for the young first baseman.

If he can show Dodger brass that he can play up to expectations, they will likely pay to keep him around.  Otherwise, they will venture out to other possibilities and take a different route at first. 

Loney isn’t set to become a free agent until 2013.  Before this, he’s arbitration eligible in 2011 and likely will make somewhere around $3.5 million.  In 2012, that salary will hike to somewhere around $5 million.  By this time he will have made a nice chunk of money that will only continue to increase.  The question then becomes: Do the Dodgers continue to pay him?

With hefty first baseman Prince Fielder wanting a new home, a trade could be possible. Talks of a three-player deal involving Loney, Fielder and fire-thrower Jonathan Broxton have entertained both Milwaukee and LA.  

Though this rumor was immediately shot down, it sort of makes sense.  All three of these players would benefit from a change in scenery.  Fielder has been on the trade block for quite some time now in Milwaukee, for the better part of two seasons.  Loney’s name has suddenly surfaced and Broxton has struggled in LA.  You definitely can’t rely on Broxton against the Philadelphia Phillies.  

Unless they were to acquire another first basemen in return, it would be hard for LA to part with Loney.  There’s no other first baseman in the organization that’s MLB-ready, at least no one that can play every day.

The jury is still out on James Loney for now.  The possibilities are endless as this youngster certainly could make for a good trade chip.  At the time, the Dodgers appear ready to stand pat on Loney.  But that could all change in a flash.  For the time being, we will continue watching this situation unfold.     

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My buddy Vinnie over at Talking Giants Baseball contacted me and told me he would like me to do a guest blog entry about the Dodgers. He wants me to throw a preview at him. Well…he’s not going to like what I’m about to write, because the Dodgers are coming back full force next year for a 100 win season and that NL West title.

Last season the Dodgers ended with an 80-82 record, far below the 95 wins they had in 2009. A few different things contributed to their drastic fall in performance. In no order:

1. Matt Kemp – Since 2007, when Kemp played 92 games and had nearly 300 at bats, he’s never had a season in which he batted below.290. Last season he hit only .249, and while his power continued to develop, his tremendous decrease in contact made him a less dangerous RBI guy, and robbed him of several possible home run opportunities.

I don’t know if its his newly formed relationship with Rihanna or just an off year, but Kemp’s defense also took a terrible tumble. He was coming off a gold glove season in center field with every night having a possible web gem, but last season he continuously misplayed balls and looked foolish. Kemp will need to regain his earlier, more promising form if the Dodgers are going to have a chance to win the NL West.

2. Jonathan Broxton – What the hell happened to Broxton? He was terrible last season. All of a sudden he looked scared and confused, like he had no idea what he was doing on a pitcher’s mound.

In previous years, when the Dodgers would send Broxton and his 100MPH fastball out for the final three outs, there was very little doubt that he would get the job done. Maybe his two previous collapses in the NLCS against the Phillies finally caught up to him, but last season his ERA ballooned to 4.04.

In his previous four seasons, Broxton’s ERA had only been above 2.85 once (3.13, 2008). Unless Broxton is dealt this season, he will need to come back down to Earth and start knocking people down again.

3. The Divorce – The McCourts’ looming divorce didn’t allow the Dodgers to go out and add the pieces they needed in order to compete. They needed to fill out the rotation better and the people who we did add were all old journeyman. It was almost as though they made some moves to make it look like they were still trying to compete.

This offseason however, when many people thought that the trend would continue, we’ve been one of the most active teams (besides Boston, or New York). We’ve gone out and bolstered our starting five, with the re-signing of Kiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly along with the addition of Jon Garland.

Based on last year’s statistics, this group is the best rotation in the MLB. If they can continue to work deep into ballgames, and keep our team in position to win games, we just have to hope our pen can handle the rest.

4. Manny Ramirez – Well…Manny wasn’t really Manny anymore. Maybe this is the new Manny we have to look forward to, but luckily, as a team, we don’t have to worry about it anymore. Personally, I’ve always been a big Ramirez fan, but after he was suspended for his “PED’s” he was never the same. Coincidence? I don’t really care; either way, he was not the same middle of the lineup threat that he used to be.

In 66 games with the Dodgers he did manage to hit .311, but only hit 8 homeruns. In 2010 his AB/HR ratio was 24.5/1, a far cry from the end of 2008 when he came to the Dodgers and propelled them into the playoffs when it was 11/1. Manny has to be having fun to play good baseball, and after he was suspended fifty games he didn’t seem to handle the pressure of the LA fans very well. Good luck Manny.

With these reasons looking to change, the Dodgers should be at least 10 wins better than they were a year ago. That puts them at minimum 90-72. Not the 100 wins that I boldly (and semi-jokingly) predicted at the beginning of this preview. The biggest weaknesses for the Dodgers last season were driving in runs, and late-game bullpen issues.

Those are two very pivotal issues when it comes to baseball, but I think with Matt Kemp returning to form, the additions of Vicente Padilla to the bullpen and Tony Gwynn to the outfield, the Dodgers have already improved. With the rumors swirling that they are after Prince Fielder (for Broxton and Loney), the Dodgers aren’t done changing this team.

At the current state the Dodgers are in, I think think they are a lock for nothing lower than No. 2 in the NL West. With the addition of a big bat in left field and one more arm in the bullpen, I think we can realistically contend for a 100-win season, and the NL West title.

Check out the N.L. West Sneak Peak No. 1: S.F. Giants

This article is also featured on The L.A. Sports Minute.

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