Kuzul

The MLB winter meetings are just two weeks away, and the competitive landscape of free agency will likely make its biggest plays this offseason.

Executives of all 30 teams will convene in Nashville, where the hot stove will reach its peak.

The offseason has already featured a bevy of trades and signings; however, many of the blue-chip free agents—notably the slew of starting pitchers—are still on the market.

Here is the latest buzz on a few key pitchers rumored to possibly suit up in a different uniform than the year prior.

Rival Giants Reported Favorites to Sign Zack Greinke

Since the Los Angeles Dodgers were eliminated from the playoffs, Zack Greinke has opted out of a $71 million guaranteed deal and finished runner-up for the National League Cy Young Award despite hurling the lowest ERA (1.66) in two decades.

But it appears Greinke’s fortunes may turn around soon. At 32, he’s expected to successfully command an even richer deal than the $23.6 million salary he was earning with the Dodgers—and perhaps with the biggest rivals to the boys in blue.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports the San Francisco Giants may have stolen momentum from the incumbent Dodgers as favorites to land Greinke.

The Giants are in the market for a starting pitcher this offseason, perhaps two, and have the wallet to pursue an asset as expensive as Greinke. And falling short last winter in the Jon Lester sweepstakes showed, as their rotation didn’t have much to lean on past superstar Madison Bumgarner.

Signing Greinke—and perhaps another above-par starter—would not only give the Giants the best rotation in the NL West, but also steal that moniker away from the reigning three-time division champion Dodgers.

John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle discussed the immediate impact Greinke could make in shifting the competitive balance of the entire division:

One move. It’s all the Giants need to make. It virtually could assure a division title so long as other players have their normal years. It would solidify the roster. It would shift the balance of power in the National League West.

It would be signing Zack Greinke.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy named Greinke the NL starter at last year’s All-Star Game, and Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area quipped the pair’s relationship should steer in San Francisco’s favor:

The Dodgers expected to be in this position, as the veteran righty had long been expected to opt out of his deal. Those speculations were all but guaranteed when Greinke was in the midst of a Cy Young-worthy campaign last summer.

The Dodgers will still make a hard run at Greinke, who said after the season he’d like to remain in L.A. But their rivals up the Pacific Coast Highway may soar the price tag.

Dodgers Making Jordan Zimmermann Top Priority

Bracing for Greinke’s possible departure, the Dodgers are also looking at another hard-hurling righty, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

If Greinke and David Price are the A-listers of this class, Jordan Zimmermann is a B to B-plus candidate.

He saw some falloff in 2015—his ERA, WHIP and FIP were all worse than the year prior—but he eclipsed 200 innings for the second time in three years (with a 199.2 inning year sandwiched in between), leaving his 2009 Tommy John surgery in the distant rearview.

Zimmermann turns 30 next season, so he’s a tad younger than the other high-profile pitchers on the market. But if the Dodgers sign him they’ll lose their highest draft pick because he turned down a qualifying offer from the Nationals.

The Dodgers may be willing to take that chance—particularly if Greinke jets—as they are very much in win-now mode, as World Series favorites at some point in each of the last three offseasons.

They’ll be making their 2016 run with Dave Roberts as the new manager, according to the Los Angeles Times’ Dylan Hernandez, Bill Plaschke and Bill Shaikin, so a clubhouse favorite such as Zimmermann certainly boosts their winning culture.

The Chicago Cubs, a fellow NL pennant-chaser, have also emerged in the Zimmermann sweepstakes, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported the Cubs are the believed favorites to land Price, who is expected $200 million or more, but are actively shopping elsewhere—reaching out to former Cub Jeff Samardzija, per Phil Rogers of MLB.com, among others—should their Price pursuit fall short.

As Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago noted, Zimmermann would cost about half of Price’s tag and leave the Cubs more financial stability to shop for other pieces.

Zimmermann might not have finished as a top-of-the-rotation fixture as he did a year ago, but his market appears far more fluid than that of a Johnny Cueto, who seems to be drawing crickets.

Zimmermann is probably also reassured that his suitors were playoff teams a year ago after being immersed in a Nationals collapse despite being unanimous preseason World Series favorites.

Will Mark Buehrle Retire or Return?

Much has been speculated that 16-year veteran Mark Buehrle will retire this winter. He’ll be 37 before Opening Day and his contract is up with the Toronto Blue Jays after a nice few runs that culminated with an AL East title last year.

A reunion with the Chicago White Sox, where Buehrle spent his first 12 seasons, seems highly unlikely.

As Scott Merkin of MLB.com wrote, the South Siders already have a slew of lefties in their current rotation: “A healthy Buehrle certainly would help any team in regard to the innings and consistent quality starts he’s been able to log for the past 15 seasons, but I don’t envision the White Sox going with five southpaws in their rotation.”

The Blue Jays, who re-signed Marco Estrada to a two-year, $26 million deal earlier this month, aren’t expected to bring back Buehrle, who was 1.1 frames shy of eclipsing the 200 innings mark for the 15th straight season.

He could help a contender on a one-year deal and make one final hoorah. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, 10 teams are interested in the seemingly ageless lefty, who is a five-time All-Star with a no-hitter and perfect game.

Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reported, however, that only one team will pique Buehrle’s interest: his hometown St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals are coming off a 100-win season and third straight NL Central title amid the year-round attrition dealt to their beleaguered rotation.

The Redbirds have reliable pieces in Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia, but ace Adam Wainwright will be coming off an Achilles injury and John Lackey may sign elsewhere after denying a $15.8 million qualifying offer.

Buehrle’s upstanding presence would blend swimmingly in the Cardinals’ all-business clubhouse, and he could fill the veteran void should Lackey leave.

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There was a time, about a year ago, when Jordan Zimmermann was to be the prince of this winter’s dynamite class of free-agent starting pitchers. 

The right-hander was coming off a career year last offseason, putting up the best marks of his career in terms of ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, WHIP, FIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished fifth in National League Cy Young Award voting for the Washington Nationals and earned a second consecutive All-Star selection.

With one more season to produce before entering free agency, it seemed Zimmermann just had to stay healthy in 2015 to become the head of the class. Another season like the one he had in 2014, and he would become the first Tommy John survivor to put a nine-figure salary next to his name.

Well, Zimmermann stayed healthy enough. He just did not produce anywhere near the ace-like numbers expected of him this past season, and he became a fairly mediocre pitcher with a 3.66 ERA, a pedestrian 110 ERA+ and his strikeout rate dropped significantly from 22.8 percent in 2014, a career high, to 19.7 percent, good for 48th among qualified major league starters in 2015.

“Feel like I took the ball every time they asked, did what I could,” Zimmermann told reporters in late September, glossing over his career with the Nationals. “Some days I didn’t have it, some days I was good.”

Zimmermann needed to be better than good to land top-tier money this offseason, the kind that allows an ace to fill out some team’s blank check. With a deep pool of starting pitchers on the market this offseason, his numbers in a contract year do not stand out—his 3.66 ERA was easily a career worst for any of his full seasons—and leave him bunched in with the likes of Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and maybe Yovani Gallardo, if not just a tick above that trio.

Whoever might reside in Zimmermann’s echelon, one thing is certain: He pitched himself out of the group containing David Price, Zack Greinke and maybe even Johnny Cueto, depending on how the market views Cueto’s late-season/postseason struggles and injury concerns. Price and Greinke, who is expected to opt out of his current contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers within the next week, will command the majority of the money on the market.

Price, the ace of the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays this past season, has a 2.90 ERA and 133 ERA+ over his last four seasons while averaging more than 200 strikeouts a year in that time. He turned 30 in late August, but he has been durable throughout his career, is left-handed and remains one of the game’s true aces. That resume, despite his 5.46 ERA over his last nine postseason outings, could command a deal in the $180-200 million range.

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors thinks Price’s goal could be to exceed the $215 million extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers, and that is certainly a possibility considering Max Scherzer got $210 million from Washington as a 30-year-old last winter.

Greinke, who will be leaving three years and $71 million on the table when he opts out, could look to raise his average annual value with a four- or five-year deal, or he could try to get as much as six years and more than the $155 million, similar to what the Chicago Cubs gave Jon Lester last offseason.

Greinke is 32, but he has relatively no injury issues, could win a Cy Young Award for his work this past season—19 wins, 1.66 ERA, 225 ERA+, 0.844 WHIP—and is not the kind of ace that relies on a power fastball, so a sixth year might not scare away every suitor.

Postseasons matter, though. That could work against Price and Cueto, who struggled down the stretch of the regular season and was wildly inconsistent in the playoffs for the Kansas City Royals until his complete-game gem in Game 2 of the World Series.

Cueto also missed time this summer with elbow stiffness and discomfort, but seems to have ended the World Series in ace form. However, everything considered, his price could be affected unless Price signs early and for a ton of money, which would drive up numbers for other guys. 

With Price and Cueto struggling during this postseason, Zimmermann’s stock could see a boost without throwning a pitch in October. Even though his summer was not as great as expected, he could pick up the money lost, if any, by those two.

Seems like two big free-agent winners from postseason are: A) Zack Greinke, and B) Jordan Zimmermann, who hasn’t thrown a pitch.

— Phil Rogers (@philgrogers) October 29, 2015

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal believes the San Francisco Giants will stick their toes in Zimmermann’s pool, but he also thinks the Wisconsin native would like to stay in the Midwest. That puts the Cubs and possibly the Tigers into play. 

The Dodgers, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are going to have interest, obviously, as might teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels. Zimmermann will be a thick market. 

He is no longer among the best the market has to offer, and his ace title has been stripped from his negotiating leverage. Still, whatever deal Zimmermann signs will go well beyond $100 million, and while hitting the $150 million mark is iffy, if he regains something close to the form he showed in 2014, Zimmermann will end up being one of the steals of this offseason.

Advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Pitcher Jordan Zimmermann has spent his entire career as a member of the Washington Nationals. That may not be the case after this season.

Continue for updates.

Zimmermann Comments on Contract Status

Friday, March 27

Zimmermann commented on contract negotiations (or the lack of contract negotiations) with the Nationals Friday, via Mark Zuckerman of NatsInsider.com: “I’m just not going to talk during the season. If something gets done before then — which is probably pretty rare right now — then it gets done. But it’s not looking good.”

Zuckerman noted that Zimmermann made it clear when he arrived at spring training that he wouldn’t negotiate his contract during the regular season. Opening Day is approaching quickly, and it doesn’t appear likely that the pitcher, who is eligible for free agency after the 2015 campaign, will be signed to a long-term deal before it arrives.

Zuckerman also reported that “the January signing of free agent Max Scherzer to a club-record $210 million contract was viewed by most as evidence the Nats had conceded any hope of re-signing Zimmermann.”

Zimmermann may not be as big of a name as Max Scherzer or even fellow Washington pitcher Stephen Strasburg, but he turned in a spectacular 2014 season with a 14-5 record, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 182 strikeouts. He was nearly as effective the season before with a 19-9 record and 3.25 ERA.

The Nationals hope to contend for a National League East title and perhaps more in 2015 behind a deep pitching staff. It just looks like Zimmermann may not be a part of it next year.

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The signing of free agent Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210 million contract improved the Washington Nationals’ starting rotation from arguably the best to undoubtedly the best in baseball.

The Nats will enter the 2015 season with three No. 1 starters in Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, with Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister and Tanner Roark “filling out” the staff. However, the Scherzer signing also led to speculation that the Nats now might be more inclined to trade from their pitching depth.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted that Washington would be willing to deal either Zimmermann or Strasburg if they landed Scherzer, which makes sense, as Zimmermann is set to become a free agent after the 2015 season and likely to command a monster free-agent contract, while Strasburg is set to follow in his footsteps the following year.

But there’s one other major reason the Nationals seemingly are willing to consider dealing young talents such as Zimmermann and Strasburg: They have baseball’s top pitching prospect in 20-year-old right-hander Lucas Giolito.

Giolito was viewed as a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2012 draft after the right-hander lit up radar guns with his fastball and dropped jaws with his curveball early in the spring for Harvard-Westlake High School (California).

Unfortunately, Giolito suffered a strained ligament in his right elbow roughly two months into the season and was shut down indefinitely. He avoided surgery, but the injury ultimately cost Giolito the remainder of his high school campaign and the chance to be the first prep right-hander drafted No. 1 overall.

Yet even though Giolito missed most of the spring, the Washington Nationals still selected the right-hander with the No. 16 overall selection in the 2012 draft and offered him a $2.925 million signing bonus.

Making his first professional start later that summer, Giolito made it just two innings in the game before his elbow flared up once again. This time, however, there would be no rest and rehab, as he was forced to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.

After 10 months on the shelf, Giolito returned to the mound late in the 2013 season to post a 1.96 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 36.2 innings between the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues.

Suffice it to say, expectations were high for Giolito headed into 2014. Amazingly, the 20-year-old did not disappoint.

In his first full season back from surgery, not to mention his first full season as a professional, Giolito led the Low-A South Atlantic League (among pitchers with 90 innings) in ERA (2.20), strikeout percentage (28.5 percent) and opponents’ batting average (.196), per FanGraphs. The Nationals shut down the right-hander after 98 innings due to the organization’s protocol with young pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, according to Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post.

“Getting that first year out of the way, it was kind of a special situation for me,” Giolito said via Byron Kerr of MASNSports.com. “Because it was my first full year of pro ball and it was my first year back from Tommy John. Now I’m fully healthy and the surgery is well behind me. And I’m a little bit more experienced. I have been a pro for about three years now. I have a full year under my belt. I feel prepared for what’s next to come.”

When I saw Giolito make his second start of the 2014 season for Low-A Hagerstown, the 20-year-old fired five shutout innings against Low-A Lakewood, allowing one hit and one walk with six strikeouts.

He never threw more than 17 pitches in an inning and needed only 61 to complete the outing. The lone hit he surrendered was a two-out double to Samuel Hiciano in the third inning. Besides that, it was mostly strikeouts and weak contact (six groundouts, one flyout).

Giolito throws both a two- and four-seam fastball, with the latter consistently registering in the 94 to 96 mph range and the two-seamer at 91 to 93. Based on velocity alone, the pitch grades as a 65 or 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale), but everything about Giolito—his size, mechanics, arm action, prior workload—suggests that more velocity will come with development. It doesn’t take much to envision him sitting in the upper 90s by the time he reaches the major leagues.

In terms of usage, Giolito throws more four-seamers to left-handed batters, and he does a nice job changing hitters’ eye levels vertically so as to set up both secondary offerings. He’ll overthrow a few of them over the course of a game, ripping open with his glove side and falling off toward first base, but he’s cognizant of his mechanics and therefore is quick to make adjustments during subsequent pitches.

Giolito’s curveball is possibly the best I’ve personally scouted in the last four years—a future 75 offering. Working from the same over-the-top arm angle as his fastball, he throws the pitch in the 76 to 83 mph range with legitimate 12-to-6 break and sharp, downer bite.

He shows the ability to add and subtract with the pitch depending on the batter and count, consistently throwing it 78 to 81 mph for a called strike and then throwing a harder-biting version at 82 to 83 mph when vying for a whiff.

Meanwhile, the consistency and effectiveness of Giolito’s changeup was a pleasant surprise last season. The right-hander threw the pitch only three times when I saw him in April, but each time, he delivered it with a deceptive arm action and good speed differential in the low 80s. Giolito’s changeup grades as at least a future grade-60 offering, giving him three pitches which project as above average or better at maturity.

Giolito spoke in depth with Kerr about the pitch:

The changeup, when I was throwing it in high school, it wasn’t really a pitch I went to. I didn’t really have a good feel for it. After surgery, it kind of just came to me. I came back from my throwing program and my changeup was already in the workings of being there. I could throw it consistently for a strike.

Since then, I have been hammering it out. I really feel that it’s one of my stronger pitches. It’s a go to pitch in any count. I threw it 3-1 and 2-0 a lot last year. I feel that when you throw (it) in those kind of situations, you have a lot of success.

A lot can happen to any 20-year-old pitcher between A-ball and the time he reaches the major leagues. In Giolito’s case, the right-hander should have the chance to be a legitimate No. 1 starter at maturity so long as he stays healthy and continues down his current developmental path.

Both Giolito and the Nationals say that the right-hander is 100 percent healthy heading into 2015. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll be rushed up the ladder to the major leagues—not even if the team ultimately decides to trade Zimmermann or Strasburg.

“We understand the development process for someone coming off his surgery,” said Mark Scialabba, the Nationals’ director of player development, via Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post.

“We have to understand there are still goals to reach. We are going to proceed like with our previous players who have gone through this surgery, but also understand that he’s a special, unique talent.”

The Nationals’ pitching depth, even if the team makes a trade, will allow them to develop Giolito cautiously and thoroughly. Therefore, he likely will begin 2015 at High-A Potomac in the Carolina League, and if all goes as planned with his development, the right-hander should log some time at Double-A Harrisburg, too.

The organization might play it by ear after that, but all signs point to Giolito reaching the major leagues sometime during the 2016 season.

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For any team looking for a summer rental, there are two clear properties that stand out above all other options.

Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann are aces being made available for trade because their teams have one year of control before they can hit the open market as free agents. The Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, respectively, do not believe they can sign their pitchers for market value, so they are attempting to get more than a compensatory draft pick for them before they can bolt, although both teams have engaged the pitchers on extension talks this month.

The market for both aces seems to have been tentatively set by Jon Lester, who signed a six-year, $155 million deal with the Chicago Cubs earlier this month, and it might go higher depending on what Max Scherzer gets later this offseason. While Cueto and Zimmermann have expressed a desire to stay with the teams that drafted them, they will do so only “if the numbers are right,” as Cueto’s agent, Bryce Dixon, told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Both players have informed their teams they will not negotiate extensions once the regular season starts. 

“If it’s a fair value, like I have said all along, I would gladly sign,” Zimmermann said about a contract extension with the Nationals, via Chase Hughes of NatsInsider.com. “But at the end of the day, it’s gotta be something that’s fair and if it’s not, then I’ll be moving on.”

Assuming the Detroit Tigers will opt to keep David Price and that Cueto and Zimmermann are more desirable in trade than the Nationals’ Doug Fister, the question becomes which No. 1 starter is worth the price and risk of the one-year rental.

The first and biggest concerns are the prices. And, man, are they high.

The Reds have some hope to contend in 2015 despite a loaded National League Central to wade through, and they have already traded pitchers Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon. That means they are likely to hang on to Cueto and try to get him to re-up in Cincinnati, although they have open ears. 

Sources: Clubs keep asking about Cueto. #Reds steer talk to Latos, Leake, Simon. Listening on Cueto, though. Would bring biggest return.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2014

It also means that if the Reds do agree to trade their ace, they will have to get the kind of package in return that makes them the unanimous winner in the deal. Or, as Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com put it last month, the Reds would have to be “absolutely overwhelmed” to trade Cueto.

The price for Zimmermann is no cheaper. There are two key clues to support that. First, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo told The Washington Post‘s James Wagner, “We’re planning on having all three of them [at spring training].” He was referring to soon-to-be free agents Zimmermann, right-hander Fister and shortstop Ian Desmond.

Second, Rizzo appears intent on getting back high-profile, major league-ready prospects in return for Zimmermann, as he has targeted the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners as possible trade partners, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported. Both organizations have deep pools of young and controllable talent.

Rosenthal’s report also claimed Rizzo offered Zimmermann and Desmond to Seattle for hot prospects Taijuan Walker and Brad Miller but was rebuffed for obvious reasons—cost of the veterans ($27.5 million) and Seattle didn’t want to lose cheap control of Walker and Miller for rentals.

Assuming a team is willing to dig deep enough into their farm system to acquire Cueto or Zimmerman, each ace’s monetary cost is another issue. Zimmermann will make $16.5 million in 2015, more than twice the $7.5 million he made last season. Cueto will earn $10 million next year, clearly making him the more attractive target, especially since both will essentially pitch as 29-year-olds next season—Cueto turns 29 in February, Zimmermann in May.

Durability is a bit of a concern, since Cueto missed significant time in 2011 and 2013. He was limited to 11 starts in 2013 because of a lat muscle injury, but in his full years of 2012 and 2014, he ended up leading the National League in starts, pitched more than 200 innings, and finished in the top four of Cy Young Award voting both years.

For comparison’s sake, Zimmermann has made 32 starts in each of the last three seasons, although he topped 200 innings only once.

There is also the fact that Cueto has done the majority of his work in the launching pad that is Great American Ball Park, a stadium that surrenders home runs at the fourth-highest rate in the majors. Washington’s Nationals Park gives them up at the second-lowest rate, making Cueto’s home run numbers a bit more attractive. However, the Reds had a much better defense than the Nationals in 2014, which makes Zimmermann’s line last season more impressive.

The fact is both players will likely cost a fortune to acquire and will more than likely explore free agency rather than re-signing with a new team. Those risks are built in. Considering that plus the 2015 cost of each, Cueto may be the less risky acquisition simply based on what it would take to land him. Plus he has been better for longer and was arguably better than Zimmerman in the 2014 vacuum.

It does not seem likely either ace will be traded before they report to spring training unless their respective clubs significantly lower their asking prices. But if it happens, either pitcher could turn into the most impactful trade acquisition of the offseason.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The Washington Nationals are almost three months into the offseason and general manager Mike Rizzo’s finger is still resting on the trigger of nearly all of the team’s biggest potential maneuvers. 

Washington had a fairly short to-do list entering its idle months after being bounced from the postseason in the divisional series by the San Francisco Giants. As disappointing as it was for the team with the National League‘s best record to fall short in the first round, there were only two glaring issues to address in the aftermath. 

But, as of late December, both of those questions remain unanswered.

Washington has three members of its nucleus that it must either sign to an extension, trade away or risk losing in free agency in 2015. That’s the situation for the trio of shortstop Ian Desmond and starting pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister.

The other pressing matter is at second base. Whether the Nationals use an in-house promotion to fill the position or bring in a fresh face, there will be a different everyday second baseman than last year in D.C.

Those began as, and continue to be, priorities 1A and 1B for the team. And the moves Washington makes to answer those questions could serve as the fireworks that ring in the new year at Nats Park. 

Will Desmond, Zimmermann and/or Fister be leaving the Nationals this winter?

You never want to let an asset go in free agency and get virtually nothing in return when you could trade the player and address other needs. 

We saw the Boston Red Sox avoid that scenario last summer when they traded Jon Lester to the Oakland A’s. Lester was set to enter free agency following the season, just like the three Nats in question will do after the 2015 campaign.

That is, if Washington can’t sign them to extensions. 

But to suggest the Nationals can just pay all three players would move beyond optimistic into unrealistic territory now that they’ve gone this far with little progress. 

At the start of last season, principal owner Mark Lerner suggested Washington’s payroll was already stretched too thin, according to a report from The Washington Post‘s Adam Kilgore.

“We’re not going to do something where we’re losing tens of millions of dollars a year,” Lerner said back in April. “Anybody can understand that. We’re going to be smart.”

This offseason, smart has equaled patience for the Nationals while they take a wait-and-see approach to the rest of the league’s dealings. As marquee free agents like Lester and shortstop Hanley Ramirez come off the board, the trade value of Washington’s pieces at the same position goes up.

As The Post‘s Thomas Boswell suggests, this patience will continue to serve Washington well in the long run.

So the question now isn’t whether or not news will come this winter regarding the Desmond-Zimmermann-Fister triad, but rather the nature of the story. 

News could break tomorrow, or the next day, or the day after that any one of the three has been traded or signed to a lucrative extension. 

But according to The Post‘s James Wagner, Zimmermann is the only one to reopen negotiations regarding a contract extension so far. While they are both still under team control for another year, Desmond and Fister are still in a sort of limbo. 

“I wouldn’t respect Mike (Rizzo) the way I do, like I said, if he just sat on his hands and did nothing,” Desmond told The Post‘s Chelsea Janes. “That’s not how this organization got here, and it’s not how it’s going to continue to move forward. Hopefully I’m a part of it, but if not, I’m still going to be rooting for them.”

Who will play second base for the Nationals in 2015?

For the second half of last season, Asdrubal Cabrera was an above-average everyday second baseman for Washington.

But with a number of other players to pay with priority over Cabrera, the Nationals seem less and less inclined to bring the free-agent second baseman back this year. 

With the free-agent and trade market drying up, Washington could find itself plugging that hole on a temporary basis in 2015.

Danny Espinosa is the likeliest name on the current roster to take over at second base. The 27-year-old has spent his entire major league career with the Nats and hit a respectable .219 mostly off the bench last year. 

Utility man Kevin Frandsen is another option, albeit a self-proclaimed one. Frandsen showed some initiative at the team’s annual fan fest in early December when he suggested Washington should consider him for the vacancy at second base. 

But according to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson’s report on the subject, the idea was met with skepticism by manager Matt Williams.

“He is having fun today, isn’t he,” Williams said. “I’m sure at some point during the season, Franny will play second base.”

It’s also worth noting that Frandsen saw his greatest struggles at the plate when he was listed as a second baseman last year. According to his position splits on ESPN.com from 2014, Frandsen hit .279, .288 and .348 as a left fielder, third baseman and first baseman, respectively. 

He hit just .162 coming from second base. 

During this offseason Washington could end up signing a free-agent middle infielder to bolster the position—Stephen Drew is still floating around looking for a team. Or, if the Nats do trade away one of their starting pitchers, they’ll almost certainly want a major league-ready infielder in return. 

But assuming the team sticks with an in-house second baseman for this season, Washington does have some options down the line.

Dominican shortstop/second baseman Wilmer Difo looks like a bona fide stud. The 22-year-old is the Nationals’ seventh-ranked prospect according to Baseball America’s Aaron Fitt, and he could be close to a breakthrough into the bigs. 

“He’s a very talented, exciting, athletic middle infielder that can hit for power and steal bases,” Rizzo said in Wagner’s latest update on the prospect. “He has an extremely high ceiling, and he’s going to help the Nationals in the near future.”

Washington also recently signed former Marlins and Braves second baseman Dan Uggla to a minor league deal. The 34-year-old will get an invite to Nats spring training, and fans of a true comeback story will invite him into their hearts. 

From 2007-2011, Uggla hit at least 30 home runs each year. So if that guy shows up with the change of scenery, and not the Uggla who hit .162 in 48 games with Atlanta last year, he could get a shot with Washington’s big league club. 

After sneaking into the headlines with a number of recent trades and free-agent pickups, we can no longer say the Nationals have been totally silent this offseason.

But all of the minor wheeling and dealing still leaves the major questions regarding Washington’s notable soon-to-be free agents and its need at second base unanswered.

And when it comes to decisions like these that could set the long-term course of the franchise, we’ll have to wait until Rizzo is good and ready before we have any more clarity.

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The Washington Nationals are taking a noticeably patient approach this offseason, but last week the team put a clock on it with the announcement of spring training dates. 

Pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Viera, Florida, Feb. 19 with position players arriving five days later on Feb. 24. To put it in more dramatic terms, the preseason is less than two months away.

After a silent first two months this offseason, Washington is starting to pick up steam. Most notably, the Nationals have executed trades that sent reliever Ross Detwiler to the Texas Rangers and outfielder Steven Souza Jr. to the Tampa Bay Rays.

But Washington still has yet to answer its biggest offseason questions.

Will any or all of the Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, Doug Fister trio be signed to extensions before becoming free agents after 2015? Who will be the everyday second baseman this season? 

The Nationals don’t technically have to make any more moves this winter, but general manager Mike Rizzo is smart enough to know that they should. 

With two short months before the team reconvenes, here are some changes Washington should lock in before the rubber meets the road on the way to spring training. 

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The Washington Nationals have been decidedly quiet so far this offseason. But with more than two months down and just one trade in the books, it feels like the dominoes are about to begin tumbling down in D.C.

The Nats have a relatively short to-do list this winter—add some depth in the bullpen and the infield and decide the future of some soon-to-be free agents. But now that the winter meetings are over and some of the biggest free agents are off the market, it could be Washington’s turn to have a go at the hot stove. 

“Different moves beget other moves,” general manager Mike Rizzo said at the winter meetings. “It’s a very fluid situation. When one move is made, there’s usually a reciprocal move that falls into place.”

The only deal the Nationals have made thus far is the trade that sent left-handed pitcher Ross Detwiler to the Texas Rangers. But that move could be the catalyst that helps bring some clarity to Washington’s bullpen.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported earlier this month the Nationals were “likely” to trade late-inning stalwart Tyler Clippard. With the departure of Detwiler and some of this offseason’s biggest free-agent relievers now off the board—David Robertson latched on with the Chicago White Sox and Luke Gregerson signed with the Houston Astros—Clippard could now be poised to remain in Washington.

Righty Drew Storen is set to begin this upcoming season as the Nats closer, a role that he earned after putting up 10 saves in Washington’s last 11 games of 2014. But Storen‘s production suffered a severe drop-off in Washington’s one postseason series. The 27-year-old registered a 6.75 ERA and one blown save in two appearances against the San Francisco Giants. 

Clippard will be a necessary safety net in the event Storen struggles, and MASNsports.com’s Brian Eller reports Clippard could even compete for the closer role before the onset of the 2015 season.

“It can’t just be one guy in the ninth that’s going to make a good team or a good bullpen. So, I have perspective on that,” Clippard told reporters Saturday at the team’s annual fan fest. “Some of the innings that I pitched in the sixth and the seventh have been more important than some of those innings I was throwing in the ninth when I was a closer.”

Washington could make another move to add depth in the bullpen, but the unit should remain largely intact.

Now, the biggest mystery surrounding the Nationals this offseason remains their starting pitching. The contracts of both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister are set to expire following the 2015 season, and it’s highly unlikely Washington lets that happen. 

In the case of both starting pitchers, the Nationals will either extend their contracts or, if a deal can’t be agreed upon, ship them off in a trade.

According to a report from The Washington Post‘s James Wagner, Rizzo reopened discussions with Zimmermann‘s agent during the winter meetings, but no such talks have started in Fister‘s case. 

“It was a re-acquaintance, if you will, to talk about philosophies and parameters and that type of thing,” Rizzo said. 

With Zimmermann in extension talks, the interest around him hasn’t cooled off at all. After MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reported last week that the Rangers inquired about the Nats starter, Rosenthal is now reporting the Boston Red Sox and “other clubs” have entered the mix.

Each passing day without a new contract for Zimmermann or Fister increases the chances that one or both leaves Washington in a trade. In that event, the Nationals will most likely use them as trade bait to shore up the middle of their infield.

In terms of immediate need, Washington’s most obvious weakness is at second base.

Looking ahead, shortstop Ian Desmond’s contract also expires in 2015. Without an extension for him, a versatile, young infielder that could moonlight at second and short becomes increasingly valuable for Washington. 

The Nationals came relatively close to a move that addressed that need, among others, when they engaged in talks with the Seattle Mariners recently. 

In the same report from Rosenthal, he said Washington proposed a trade that included “Zimmermann and Desmond for right-hander Taijuan Walker and shortstop Brad Miller.”

That’s how close the Nationals came to dealing two of their stars. But somewhere near the top of the rules of the baseball business is a warning to never let a valuable player’s contract expire without getting something in return.   

“I think you have to have a strategy and a plan to look long-term,” Rizzo told The Washington Post‘s Chelsea Janes. “We’re always about trying to win now in 2015 but we also have to have a global view towards the future. We don’t want to be just good for 2015 but good on a consistent basis.”

According to Rizzo and the general consensus, Washington is poised to make a run at the National League East title this season if the roster remains as is on Opening Day.

But with sustainable success in mind, it would be naive to think the Nationals will be quiet for the rest of the offseason. 

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For the Washington Nationals and the rest of Major League Baseball, winter is coming. 

Starting in less than a week, general managers from around the league will gather in San Diego for the annual winter meetings. And no roster is safe from a blockbuster trade or a marquee free agent signing—not even a team like Washington that could sit on its hands all offseason and still contend for a title in 2015.

Even though the Nationals don’t have a desperate need to fill any particular hole in their lineup, general manager Mike Rizzo still has a to-do list that will mostly focus on the future beyond this upcoming season. 

The clock is ticking on all-star caliber starters Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister. Their contracts are set to expire in a year, and this winter is the time to ink either one or both of them to extensions—or use them as trade bait.

There’s also the matter of second base, the most obvious position at which Washington could use an upgrade if the deal is right.

The Nationals could also find themselves kicking the tires on bullpen help. With Drew Storen stepping into the closer role, a free-agent reliever could serve as a setup man or a contingency plan (should Storen’s postseason struggles carry over into this year). 

At the start of the 2014 season, The Washington Post’s Adam Kilgore reported that the team’s payroll was “beyond tapped out,” according to principal owner Mark Lerner. But last month, The Post’s James Wagner reported that, despite having a the fourth-largest projected payroll in baseball, Rizzo won’t hold back this winter. 

“There’s nothing off the table,” Rizzo said. “There [are] no restrictions. We’re going to make good, prudent baseball moves regardless of payroll.”

What to do About the Pitchers

Washington’s first, second a third priorities should be extending the contracts of both Zimmermann and Fister. 

The Nationals have arguably the strongest rotation of starters in the bigs, and these two were vital to that success in 2014. Only three teams had multiple pitchers finish in the top 10 for ERA in the National League. Zimmermann and Fister put Washington on that list.

The last thing Washington needs is change on the starting-pitcher front, but everything has a price. 

USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale recently reported that Washington is, in fact, open to hearing trade offers for the duo. 

For Rizzo to deal either Zimmermann or Fister, the price would be decidedly steep. So if one of the two is to leave D.C., the incoming replacements (in theory) wouldn’t be a downgrade. MASN’s Pete Kerzel suggests Rizzo would demand “at least one major league-ready player and a couple of decent prospects” out of the deal. 

According to two separate reports from Wagner, the Nationals haven’t made any progress in talks with either Zimmermann or Fister this offseason. But for the former, at least, there’s no rush to leave Washington any time soon.

“I like D.C.,” Zimmermann said. “I like the ownership. I like the manager, the coaches. I like everything about D.C. It’s just a waiting game right now to see what happens.”

The two pitchers should be high on Rizzo’s list of priorities during the winter meetings—whether it’s locking them down for the future or forcing another team to empty the cupboard in a trade. But do expect the winter-meeting news on the Nationals front to center around this duo.

Second-base Scenarios

The free-agent market this offseason is decidedly scarce compared to other years, so the winter meetings would be a perfect time for Washington to address its need at second base via a trade. 

One place Rizzo could look is the north side of Chicago, where the Cubs have more middle infielders than they know what to do with.

Entering the offseason, they already had the likes of Addison Russell, Starlin Castro and Javier Baez on the payroll. Now Tommy La Stella joins the mix after the Atlanta Braves shipped him off the Chicago in a trade last month.

However, despite their surplus of potential second basemen, the Cubs could have a higher asking price than Washington is willing to pay. If the Nationals get to a point where trading Zimmermann is a forgone conclusion, this kind of deal becomes more of an option. But until then, it would be irresponsible for Washington to give him up to fill a position that current National Danny Espinosa could capably step into. 

Wagner reported early in the offseason that, before settling on a trade with the Cleveland Indians for Asdrubal Cabrera at the deadline this summer, Washington also tested the market elsewhere.

After the Nationals inquired about Daniel Murphy of the New York Mets and Didi Gregorius of the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, the two can be viewed as potential trade targets during these winter meetings.

But if Rizzo is to gauge the value of any of these options at second base, it would be more out of doing his due diligence than a burning desire to bring any of them in.

Bolstering the Bullpen

As goes the rest of Washington’s roster, the Nationals don’t have a desperate need for help in the bullpen. But that is one area of the roster that Rizzo could conceivably look to tweak during the winter meetings. 

Don’t expect Washington to pursue any relievers in a trade, but there are a number of free agents who could draw interest from the Nats. 

Washington’s relievers combined to earn the fourth-best ERA in baseball last season, but that was thanks in part to former closer Rafael Soriano (who is now gone after the Nationals declined to pick up the option on his contract). 

Drew Storen will serve as Washington’s closer for the upcoming season, but USA Today‘s Gabe Lacques did list D.C. as a potential landing spot for David Robertson in a preview of free agent relief pitchers. 

Robertson is considered by some to be the class of available bullpen help, so it hurts the Nationals’ chances of signing the New York Yankee if he isn’t promised the closer role. 

Francisco Rodriguez, Casey Janssen and Sergio Romo are also conversations that Rizzo is likely to have during the winter meetings, but any signing would be used as a setup man for Storen.

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Coming into the MLB offseason, you could look at the Washington Nationals and conclude within, oh, three seconds that the last thing they needed to tinker with was their starting rotation.

But now it sounds like general manager Mike Rizzo might do that anyway. And if he does, he could do so in a big way.

First, one word around the campfire has the Nationals linked to free-agent right-hander Max Scherzer, otherwise known as the guy who won the 2013 American League Cy Young. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports had a conversation with a “prominent agent” about Scherzer’s market, and that conversation led him to put the Nationals at the top of a list of teams that could be interested in the 30-year-old.

Where Rosenthal was only speculating, Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish has heard from sources that the Nationals may indeed be positioning themselves for a run at Scherzer.

…But also that there would have to be at least one corresponding move. If Scherzer comes to Washington, Jordan Zimmermann and/or Doug Fister may have to leave.

That helps explain these tweets from Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

If the Nationals are really a player for Scherzer, this makes sense. As much as they would probably prefer to simply add him to a collection of starters—Zimmermann, Fister, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez—who posted an MLB-best 3.04 ERA in 2014, that’s a tall task.

It’s going to take a lot of money to sign Scherzer. Nobody knows how much just yet, but Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of $185 million over seven years sounds about right.

That would be an average of over $26 million per year, which would make Scherzer the highest-paid player on the Nationals by about $5 million over Jayson Werth. For a team already projected for close to $150 million in expenditures in 2015, we’re talking about arguably too big of an addition.

And that’s where dealing Zimmermann and/or Fister would come in.

Dealing Zimmermann would clear $16.5 million in payroll room for 2015. Going off Dierkes’ arbitration projections, dealing Fister would clear $11.4 million. As such, the Nationals may not be able to bring Scherzer aboard unless they deal both of them.

Whether Scherzer is worth so much trouble is a question that addresses several scenarios, but it starts with a big one: Just how good is he relative to Zimmermann and Fister?

Let’s keep this simple by looking at what these three guys did in 2014. And while there are dozens of stats we could look at to evaluate who’s better than who, let’s keep the simple motif by looking at the usual suspects plus a couple of ERA estimators in FIP and xFIP and Wins Above Replacement.

Courtesy of FanGraphs, we get:

By ERA, Fister was the best, Zimmermann was second best and Scherzer was the worst. But according to the ERA estimators, Scherzer and Zimmermann were essentially the same pitcher, and Fister drastically overachieved.

There is something to that assessment of Fister. It’s not too alarming that his strikeout rate suffered a drop-off in 2014, but you don’t want to see ground-ball pitchers suddenly stop getting ground balls at their usual rates. That’s something that could come back to bite him in 2015.

Based on that, the absolute best thing the Nationals can do is sign Scherzer and trade Fister. They’d basically be swapping out a faux ace for a real ace and could look forward to an otherworldly Scherzer-Zimmermann-Strasburg trio with which to chase a championship in 2015.

As for signing Scherzer and trading Zimmermann, that’s where things get really interesting. 

That the two were essentially equals in the eyes of the advanced metrics in 2014 isn’t misleading. It’s not worth nothing that Scherzer did his thing with more strikeouts and in the American League, but Zimmermann did his own thing to transform into a legit ace.

Zimmermann’s strikeouts experiencing a spike was overdue and not an accident. Brooks Baseball can show how he took to pitching up in the zone with his fastball more often, and how that bought him the whiffs he’d long deserved with his mid-90s velocity.

Take that adjustment and combine it with Zimmermann’s superb command, and he’s just as capable of overwhelming hitters using his stuff and pitching smarts as Scherzer does with his almost unfair collection of nasty stuff.

And that essentially means signing Scherzer and trading Zimmermann would result in the Nationals having basically the same pitcher for an extra $10 million or so per year. On the surface, that doesn’t seem overly logical.

But you have to factor in what the Nationals would be getting back if they were to trade Zimmermann. And in the opinion of Drew Fairservice of FanGraphs, he “surely carries more trade value than any other walk-year National, given his dominant 2014 season.”

Indeed. And knowing that the Atlanta Braves just turned one year of Jason Heyward into four years of Shelby Miller, it’s not hard to imagine the Nationals getting a similar controllable young talent for Zimmermann. Perhaps the second baseman they need to round out their infield, for example.

As for the long-term aspect of signing Scherzer and trading Zimmermann, that would obviously be punting on the idea of signing Zimmermann to an extension. That’s actually not the worst idea in light of what he told James Wagner of The Washington Post.

“If the deal is right, I’ll definitely sign a multiyear deal,” Zimmermann said. “I never once said I didn’t want to stay in D.C. But at the end of the day, the deal has to be right and the deal has to be fair and that’s all I’m asking for. Just pay me what I’m worth and I’ll be happy to stay. If we can’t come to common ground, I guess free agency is the next step.”

In other words: The Nationals need to give him market value. Knowing that Zimmermann is only 28 with a strong track record and one year to go until free agency, “market value” for him may mean something more like Cole Hamels’ $144 million extension than Homer Bailey’s $105 million extension.

As such, a choice between Scherzer or Zimmermann likely boils down to spending a whole lot of money on Scherzer and taking advantage of Zimmermann’s considerable trade value or spending a whole lot of money on Zimmermann and taking advantage of Fister’s lesser trade value.

It’s a tough call, but yours truly thinks the needle tips slightly in favor of the sign-Scherzer, trade-Zimmermann idea.

That leaves just one last scenario: signing Scherzer and then trading Zimmermann and Fister. And compared to the other two, this idea isn’t as easy to get behind.

What the Nationals would be doing is turning a very deep and very good rotation into a not as deep and not as good rotation. By far the club’s biggest strength from 2014 would be gone, and conventional wisdom suggests they’d sorely miss their loaded rotation in the postseason.

However, we just saw conventional wisdom get turned on its head. The Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers all got bounced from October despite having elite starting pitching. The overarching message sent by their defeats was that a deep rotation is no longer a guarantee of success in October.

The Kansas City Royals stamped that home when they made it to Game 7 of the World Series without great starting pitching, riding a top-level bullpen and inspired overall team play instead. The San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, showed that merely having one excellent starting pitcher can be enough to win it all.

By signing Scherzer and dealing Zimmermann and Fister, the Nationals could conceivably follow either blueprint. The Zimmermann and Fister deals would presumably make them a deeper team around their rotation, and said rotation would still have at least two titans in Scherzer and Strasburg who could lead the way both in the regular season and in October.

So sign Scherzer and trade Fister? You can win.

Sign Scherzer and trade Zimmermann? You can win.

Sign Scherzer and trade Fister and Zimmermann? That’s arguably the best way the Nationals can win.

If signing Scherzer and dealing Zimmermann and/or Fister is truly Rizzo’s master plan, he has a lot of phone calls to make. But knowing what those calls could do for the Nationals, they’re worth making.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked. Salary and payroll information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts unless otherwise noted/linked.

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