Tag: Jose Bautista

Will Jose Bautista Be Worth a $150 Million-Plus Megadeal in Next FA Class?

Jose Bautista won’t come cheap. Just ask him.

Joey Bats, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported, is seeking at least five years and more than $150 million as he prepares to hit free agency next winter. And that’s not negotiable. 

“There’s no negotiation,” Bautista said of his current club, the Toronto Blue Jays, per Sportsnet.ca’s Arden Zwelling. “I told them what I wanted. They either meet it or it is what it is.”

That’s about as unequivocal as it gets, and the Jays should actually thank their slugger for it. At least they know where they stand.

The obvious question now: Is Bautista worth it, for Toronto or anyone else? He’s 35, after all. He’ll be 36 in October. Any team that meets his demands will be paying him beyond his age-40 season. That’s a risk wrapped in a gamble with a side of cross-your-fingers.

On the other hand, Bautista is a rare commodity in today’s power-starved MLB. He’s finished in the top 10 in American League MVP voting in four of the last six seasons and made the All-Star team in all six. During that stretch, he’s clubbed 227 home runs and amassed 33.8 WAR, per Baseball-Reference.com.

He is, without hyperbole, one of the baddest bat-flipping bashers in either league. And he’d be a game-changer for any lineup.

Again, though, does he make sense at the years and dollars he’s demanding? Let’s first parse that question for the Blue Jays, then expand our lens.

For Toronto, the answer is a fairly unambiguous “no.”

The Jays boasted baseball’s best offense in 2015, pacing the pack in runs, home runs, OPS and a host of other categories. They kept their core intact for 2016, and that’s why they’re in the mix in a crowded AL East despite losing ace David Price to the division-rival Boston Red Sox.

Looking further down the line, however, the Jays will have to make some hard choices. They just signed a two-year, $29 million deal with reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson, avoiding a potentially messy arbitration hearing. 

But, as yours truly recently argued, that should be a mere preamble to a long-term megadeal between Toronto and its franchise player, who turned 30 in December. 

Additionally, the Blue Jays need to decide whether to re-up 33-year-old Edwin Encarnacion, who can become a free agent next winter but has indicated he’d rather work out an extension this spring, per MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm

Even if they expand payroll, the Jays simply don’t have deep enough pockets to keep all these hitters in perpetuity. Someone’s got to go. And as the oldest and, seemingly, least financially flexible of the bunch, that someone looks like Bautista.

So let’s say Bautista finishes his final campaign north of the border with a stat line similar to last season’s 40 home runs, 114 RBI and .913 OPS. Is there a club out there that’ll hand him the gaudy contract he’s set his heart (and wallet) on?

It’s far from impossible. In 2012, the Los Angeles Angels gave a then-32-year-old Albert Pujols a 10-year, $240 million commitment, which runs through his age-41 season. Yes, Pujols was in his own stratosphere at the time, and that pact has turned into a cautionary tale more than a road map.

But Bautista is asking for fewer dollars, especially adjusting for inflation. And he’ll be a rare gem in a dreary 2016-17 free-agent class. Any club that offers him five years would surely understand they were eating cash later for production now, a common trade-off when it comes to top-shelf talent.

It’s obligatory to mention the New York Yankees whenever the subject of expensive veterans is broached. But the Yanks seem to be trying to move away from massive contracts, at least until some of their current albatrosses come off the books.

Instead—and this is purely speculation—Boston could be a logical landing spot.

The Red Sox and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski have shown a willingness to throw their financial weight around, tossing $217 million at Price among other high-profile moves.

And David Ortiz, who Bautista has credited as a mentor, is retiring after this season, leaving a Papi-sized hole in the middle of the Sox lineup.

Boston fans still stinging from the overpays lobbed at Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez may resist another splashy, risky payout. But they’d be lying if they said the thought of Joey Bats in Beantown didn’t hold appeal.

That’s true for most clubs, of course. And while the safe bet is on Bautista netting a shorter contract in the three- to four-year range next winter, it’s entirely possible someone will meet his demands.

That person might regret it. The list of players who stumbled off a cliff after age 35 is much longer than the list of players who kept raking. 

Regardless, Bautista won’t come cheap. That much he’s made clear. And next winter, someone with cash to burn and expensive tastes may well dig in.

 

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Jose Bautista Contract: Latest News and Rumors on Negotiations with Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays superstar Jose Bautista is entering the final season of the five-year, $65 million contract he signed in 2011 and is looking to cash in after establishing himself as one of baseball’s most feared hitters.

Continue for updates.


Latest on Bautista’s Reported Contract Demands

Wednesday, Feb. 24

According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, reports of Bautista wanting five years and $150 million are “not exactly accurate.” He added that the demands include more years and money. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports confirmed Heyman’s report but added that the average annual value was “below” $30 million.

Rick Westhead of TSN reported Tuesday that Bautista wants a five-year extension worth more than $30 million per year.  


Bautista Comments on Reported Contract Demands

Tuesday, Feb. 23

“False,” Bautista said, when asked about his reported $150 million extension demands, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

“There’s no negotiation,” Bautista told Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet Magazine on Monday. “I told them what I wanted. They either meet it or it is what it is.”

The team has yet to contact him since he made his demands.


Bautista Comments on Potential Hometown Discount

Monday, Feb. 22

When asked by Zwelling about giving the Blue Jays a hometown discount, Bautista said, “Doesn’t exist. Not in my world. In my eyes, I’ve given this organization a five-year hometown discount already.” 

He then offered more thoughts on the business side of baseball:


Bautista Provides Elite, Middle-of-the-Lineup Power

Bautista, 35, hit .250 with 40 home runs and 114 RBI in 153 games for the Blue Jays in 2015, helping lead the team to a playoff berth. It was his sixth straight season with at least 27 home runs and his fourth season in the last six years with 100 or more RBI.

The six-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger has shown little sign of slowing down well into his 30s, though his comments suggest that he wants the team to pay him for what he has done, not what he will do for the duration of his next contract. Bautista can certainly make a strong argument that he outplayed his previous contract by a significant margin. 

One issue for the Blue Jays will be making an enormous financial commitment to a player who will be 36 to start the 2017 season. The general rule of thumb for a club when signing players is to pay them for what they are expected to produce going forward, not what they’ve produced in the past.

The other issue will be that the younger Edwin Encarnacion will also become a free agent after this season, and the Blue Jays almost assuredly won’t be able to sign both players to extensions.

In other words, there are multiple obstacles between Bautista and the Blue Jays in contract-extension talks. Based on Bautista’s comments and the Blue Jays’ reluctance to respond to his demands at this point, it seems the sides are far apart on reuniting. 

 

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.

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Jose Bautista Contract: Latest News and Rumors on Negotiations with Blue Jays

Jose Bautista is among the many impending Toronto Blue Jays free agents first-year general manager Ross Atkins must address by this time next year, and contract discussions with the 12-year veteran slugger are reportedly set to begin in mid-January.

Continue for updates.


Atkins to Meet with Bautista Next Week

Sunday, Jan. 10

Atkins said on MLB Network Radio that he will meet with Bautista next week to discuss his future:

The Blue Jays exercised Bautista’s option for $14 million in November after Toronto’s exit from the American League Championship Series.

Atkins’ predicament is that Bautista will become a free agent in the same offseason as fellow slugger Edwin Encarnacion—both of whom will command hefty figures.

But the dilemma isn’t only in terms of dollars.

Bautista is 35 years old, and Encarnacion is 33, meaning the Jays must decide whether locking up two aging players for a pretty penny is worth it.

Atkins acknowledged it will be challenging to come to an agreement while also keeping the team’s long-term plans intact, per MLB Network Radio:

It’s the kind of thing where it’s a huge decision either way, either angle. It’s going to take a lot of work on our end and I think what we’ve been focused on to date is, how do we make this team better without sacrificing our future? We’ll continue to do that as we factor in the decision to extend them or hopefully come to terms with something that makes them happy. Would we like to have them here long term? Absolutely. 

The challenge is, can we see eye to eye on what that value is going to be? That will be the challenging part.

Here is the full interview:

Should the Blue Jays lose out on either in free agency, they’d receive a compensatory draft pick. But that’s not necessarily going to replace two massive voids in the lineup—and certainly not immediately. 

Atkins is taking over for Alex Anthopoulos, the reigning MLB Executive of the Year, per Sporting News, who built the Blue Jays into World Series favorites last season with aggressive trades that brought in superstars Troy Tulowitzki and David Price.

The Bautista and Encarnacion sagas come with the territory, and though he’s fresh on the job, how Atkins deals with each will be a major factor in how his tenure in Toronto plays out.

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Blue Jays vs. Royals: Keys for Each Team to Win ALCS Game 1

With a sighing exhale of relief, the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals have survived.

Both teams’ American League Division Series were pushed to fifth and deciding games. At times in each series, the Blue Jays and Royals both looked left for dead before their incredible resurrections shoved them into this American League Championship Series, ripe with the league’s two best regular-season records.

The Blue Jays were the team that surged in the second half, spurred by key trades for David Price, Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins along with a boiling-hot offense and a revived R.A. Dickey. They eventually also got the services of Marcus Stroman, who ended up with a couple of quality starts in the ALDS against the Texas Rangers.

The Royals were the club that almost went wire-to-wire and ended with the best record in the Junior Circuit. They did it with the same core of budding stars they won the pennant with last season, helped this time around by Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto, trade-deadline acquisitions who, at times, were significant contributors to their run to and through the ALDS against the Houston Astros.

Now, with improbable series wins behind them, the Blue Jays and Royals face off in the ALCS with Game 1 kicking it off Friday in Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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Jose Bautista Injury: Updates on Blue Jays Star’s Hamstring and Return

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista will be back in the lineup for Game 2 of the ALDS, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. He was removed from Game 1 after suffering a hamstring injury.

Bautista remains one of the most dangerous power hitters in baseball while also being one of the most patient. The six-time All-Star finished the 2015 season with more walks (110) than strikeouts (106) while bashing 40 home runs with a .536 slugging percentage.

The Blue Jays have the league’s best offense, finishing the regular season with 891 runs scored.

Bautista was susceptible to injuries for a two-year stretch, missing 114 games between 2012 and 2013, but he played 155 games last year and was on the field for 153 games this season. Toronto’s World Series hopes likely rest on him staying in the lineup.

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Can MLB’s Best Rotations Stop Donaldson-Bautista-Encarnacion Power Trio?

They, in all their they-y wisdom, say that great pitching always beats great hitting. It’s a notion that at least sounds logical, so it must be true.

We can say one thing, though: With Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion leading the charge, the Toronto Blue Jays‘ offense is pretty well-equipped to disprove that notion this October.

In case you’ve just returned to earth following an extended stay on Mars (welcome back, Mark Watney!), you should know that the AL East champions’ offense really is scary. Like, scary enough to lead all of Major League Baseball in runs, home runs and OPS. As Tom Verducci put it in Sports Illustrated, Toronto’s offense is “a throwback offense to the days when there was no PED testing in baseball.”

Yeah, that scary. And though the Blue Jays enjoyed significant contributions from up and down their lineup, the fearsome threesome of Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion did the heavy lifting. Behold:

Even without context, these are numbers that are liable to make you say “Yowza” out loud. But a bit of context is liable to make you put it in all caps and shout it.

For example, Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion all finished in the top 10 in MLB in OPS+, which adjusts OPS to league average. They’re also the first trio of teammates to finish with OPS+’s of at least 149 since Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen on the 2004 St. Louis Cardinals.

But meh. Why paint Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion as the best offensive trio in recent memory when they can be painted as maybe the best offensive trio ever

That’s what Joe Posnanski did at NBC Sports, noting that the Donaldson-Bautista-Encarnacion trio is the first in baseball history to each top 35 homers and 100 RBI with an OBP of at least .370 and an OPS+ of at least 140.

As Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada told the Associated Pres (via FoxSports.com): “I’m extremely happy that I don’t have to face them because I get to watch them hit every day and it’s a scary lineup.”

Such is the challenge facing the Blue Jays’ list of opponents this postseason, which begins with the Texas Rangers in the American League Division Series on Thursday. All they have to do is go up against the league’s most explosive offense, led by an all-time great offensive trio, and find a way to put up zeroes.

One wants to say, “No pressure, man.” But one can’t. All of the pressure, man.

But can it be done? 

Honestly, the best anyone can say is maybe.

When one is dealing with a threat as enormous as the heart of the Blue Jays offense, it behooves one to search for a specific weakness. The Death Star had its two-meter exhaust port. Surely the Donaldson-Bautista-Encarnacion has one of its own.

It’s not immediately apparent, though.

One thing Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion all have in common is that they swing from the right side of the plate, but they’re not vulnerable to the platoon advantage. All three posted OPS’s of over .900 against right-handed pitching in 2015, making them three of the top 10 right-on-right hitters in MLB. 

So, scratch that. And no, they didn’t have reverse splits either. Donaldson crushed left-handers the most with a 1.024 OPS, but neither Bautista nor Encarnacion did worse than .830. Scratch that, too.

Moving on, one thing that tends to be plentiful in October is power pitching. But before one can even ponder the notion that perhaps Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion can simply be blown away, one notices that all three finished 2015 with strikeout percentages under the MLB average of 20.4.

On that note, Baseball-Reference.com says all three handled “power” pitchers better than the average major leaguer (.656 OPS). Same goes for “finesse” pitchers, as all three annihilated the average OPS (.760) against them.

Ah, but with them being power-oriented hitters and everything, perhaps they can be easily silenced by pitchers who specialize in ground balls!

…Nope. Not that either. The average MLB hitter had a .714 OPS against ground-ball pitchers. Neither Donaldson nor Bautista nor Encarnacion did worse than a .950 OPS against said pitchers.

These are easy go-to areas for potential weaknesses, and Toronto’s trio has them all covered. It’s almost as if they’re really good hitters! Whaddya know.

However…

Yeah, you knew it was coming. Nobody’s perfect. Least of all hitters, as even the best of them are vanquished in the majority of their plate appearances. Lo and behold, not even Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion are perfect.

They’re definitely dangerous, and what makes them dangerous is their power. Especially, as one can tell from looking at their zone profiles at Brooks Baseball, against pitches on the inner two-thirds of the strike zone.

That’s where Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion preferred to swing their bats in 2015, and Baseball Savant can crunch the numbers and tell us they did considerable damage in those regions:

  • Donaldson: .375 AVG, .755 SLUG
  • Bautista: .300 AVG, .771 SLUG
  • Encarnacion: .317 AVG, .714 SLUG

Simply from looking at this, we can make a Sherlockian deduction that it’s a good idea for opposing pitchers to not tempt fate in the inner two-thirds of the zone against Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion.

But if you go back and look at where they’ve hit for power, you’ll notice there’s one region where they’re actually quite vulnerable: low and away.

Which makes sense. These are three guys who aren’t exactly going up to the plate looking to knock singles to right field. They’re looking to get all Hulk-like and do some smashing. It’s no wonder they were largely held in check on pitches on and off the outside corner in 2015:

  • Donaldson: .149 AVG, .223 SLUG
  • Bautista: .201 AVG, .254 SLUG
  • Encarnacion: .232 AVG, .366 SLUG

Admittedly, this is the very definition of a cherry-picked weakness. But as far as Toronto’s postseason competition should be concerned, that it’s not totally random and also potentially exploitable makes it better than nothing.

Which leads us to just one question: Which playoff team is best equipped to pound Toronto’s vaunted trio low and away?

If we use Baseball Savant to find which playoff teams threw the highest percentage of low-and-away pitches against right-handed batters, we get this:

According to this data, the Rangers may not present much of a challenge. Though Colby Lewis and Yovani Gallardo did fine at 19.7 and 21.0 percent, respectively, Texas ace Cole Hamels threw only 15.9 percent of his pitches low and away to right-handed batters. Then there’s Derek Holland, who did so with fewer than 10 percent of his pitches.

The Kansas City Royals look like even less of a threat, and that’s no mirage. Of their top three starting pitchersYordano Ventura, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez—none even so much as topped 16 percent low-and-away pitches to right-handed batters.

On the other hand, there are the Houston Astros. It’s not surprising to see them atop the list, as Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh noted back in May that pounding hitters low and away is a house specialty in Houston. Dallas Keuchel led the way by throwing a whopping 32.1 percent of his pitches low and away to righties, and Scott Kazmir (20.6) and Collin McHugh (19.4) did well in their own right.

Should the Blue Jays meet the Astros in the ALCS, an upset could be in the works. If not, the Blue Jays wouldn’t necessarily be out of the woods if they happened to be matched up against the Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates in the World Series. That’s where they would run into low-and-away masters Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel.

Mind you, one assumes Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion aren’t quaking in their boots at the thought of all this. Baseball players don’t even wear boots, for one. For two, there is the reality that well-laid plans don’t always become well-executed plans. Even if teams decide they’re going to do nothing but pound Toronto’s trio low and away, it’ll be a plan with a relatively small margin for error.

Put another way, the notion that the Donaldson-Bautista-Encarnacion trio does indeed have its own two-meter exhaust port doesn’t make the three of them any less dangerous. That weakness was there all season, after all, and yet they still put up numbers and helped put the Blue Jays on what looks like a direct and smooth path back to the World Series.

Yes, the Blue Jays’ vaunted trio can be stopped. But do not assume even for one second that they will be stopped.

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Jose Bautista Injury: Updates on Blue Jays Star’s Shoulder and Return

Toronto Blue Jays star Jose Bautista has returned to the lineup after sitting out following a cortisone shot in his shoulder.

Continue for updates.


Bautista Returns to Lineup

Tuesday, May 26 

MLB Lineups reported Bautista was in the lineup as a DH against the White Sox after sitting out the team’s last two games.

Mark Zwolinksi of The Toronto Star reported Bautista thinks he can play in right field on Monday. Zwolinski also reported Bautista threw approximately 30 times at around 90 feet today, and that the plan is to increase his throws gradually. Bautista said he felt encouraged after throwing from that distance for the first time since he was injured, per Zwolinski.

Zwolinski reported on Sunday had received a cortisone shot in his right shoulder. The report stated Bautista had been battling a sore shoulder for nearly a month.

Bautista said that he was experiencing inflammation around the joint but no structural damage, via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Bautista went on to say that other options to fix the shoulder would be exploratory surgery or rest, but he opted for the cortisone shot, via Davidi.

He has been one of the game’s best sluggers in recent years but has struggled thus far this season, batting only .215 with seven home runs.

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Toronto Blue Jays: With Donaldson Addition, Jays Can Win AL East

The Toronto Blue Jays made big news late last week, executing a blockbuster trade with the Oakland A’s, receiving Josh Donaldson in exchange for Brett Lawrie and three prospects.

This comes after the Jays shelled out $82 million for free agent catcher Russell Martin on November 20. 

Continuing the philosophy that general manager Alex Anthopoulos and the rest of the front office have implemented recently, the Blue Jays want to win now.  The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays all struggled last year, but Toronto wasn’t able to capitalize, finishing 83-79 and third in the AL East.

However, they were without one of their best hitters for most of 2014.  Edwin Encarnacion played in only 128 games because of a quad injury he suffered in Baltimore in July, and Brett Lawrie missed over half the season.  Those two injuries caused the Jays to have to shuffle a variety of mediocre players at the corner infield positions.

But with Donaldson, who is one of the most consistent players in the game over the past two seasons, the Blue Jays offense has the potential to be among the most productive in the league.

Shortstop Jose Reyes starts it off at the top of the order, giving them a steady leadoff hitter when healthy.  Even though he has lost a step at age 31, he still stole 30 of 32 attempts in 2014 and got on base at a solid .328 clip.  If he can find a way to stay on the field for 140 to 150 games, he has the skills to be one of the best leadoff hitters in the MLB.

If Reyes can get on base on a regular basis, he will have no trouble scoring an abundance of runs.  Jose Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson comprise one of the scariest 3-4-5 hearts of the order in the game.  Manager John Gibbons has not yet announced where he plans to place Donaldson in the lineup, but I assume it will be either third, in front of Bautista and Encarnacion, or fifth, behind the two power studs.

And, if the Jays choose to re-sign Melky Cabrera, CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman tweeted that they were interested, he would occupy the second spot, and Toronto would have arguably the best top of the order in all of baseball.  

Bautista and Encarnacion are monsters.  Bautista has averaged better than 37 home runs and 93 RBI in the past five years, and Encarnacion has averaged the same number of homers and 104 RBI.  Even when Encarnacion missed more than 30 games last year, he still managed to record 34 dingers.

Donaldson thinks along the same lines.  He was very optimistic about his new opportunity in Toronto.

“You start looking at the capability of this lineup and the potential that it brings,” Donaldson told the Associated Press via ESPN.com.  “I’m going to venture to say there’s probably not going to be another lineup as potent as this in major league baseball.”

Not only will the team be more potent with the addition of the All-Star third baseman, but Donaldson’s power numbers should rise significantly playing in his new home park. 

In a recent article in the New York Daily News, Bill Madden quoted a veteran scout saying this about Josh Donaldson:

Donaldson, with his righthanded power, could be a monster in the AL East.  Just think about it — he’s trading home games in Oakland for home games in Toronto, as well as 19 games in Seattle for 19 games in Boston and Baltimore, each.  It’s a great pickup for them and you’ve got to love their lineup now.

Madden is talking about the reputation of the AL East ballparks being more hitter-friendly than AL West ballparks.  Toronto, Boston and Baltimore are known for dramatically raising power numbers, while Seattle and Oakland are where power hitters go to die.

The Blue Jays are a team on the rise, a talented roster that has not yet been able to put anything together.  They have not played in a postseason game in 21 years, the longest active streak in the MLB.

So it is pretty safe to assume that the Toronto offense is going to be very good, but they could use some help in the pitching department.  They have a decent starting rotation consisting of R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchinson, but they need to add an arm or two to the back end of the bullpen.

Even though they let Casey Janssen, their closer the past three seasons, walk in free agency, they are back in contention for his services, according to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star

They hope top prospect Daniel Norris can contribute at the big league level in 2015, but it’s nearly impossible to project how he would perform out of the bullpen.

As they are now, the Blue Jays have added enough hitting help to improve their record by at least a handful of victories.  But if they can add a pitcher via trade or free agency or find a hidden gem in their farm system, the Jays have what it takes to end their playoff drought. 

And who knows, maybe they can be 2015’s version of the Kansas City Royals.

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Blue Jays’ Jose Bautista Looking to Homer in Franchise-Record 6th Straight Game

After hitting a home run in each of the last five games, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista enters Tuesday’s contest against the Tampa Bay Rays looking to match Jose Cruz Jr.’s franchise record of six consecutive games with a home run, per Complete Baseball Encyclopedia (via GammonsDaily.com).

Already just the second player in Jays history with a streak of five games or more, Bautista only has one non-homer hit—a single from last Tuesday’s game against the Boston Red Sox—during his historic run. Having gone hitless in his four games prior to the streak, the slugging outfielder’s hit total over the last nine contests consists of five home runs and just the one single.

Cruz Jr.’s streak came toward the end of the 2001 campaign when he homered in six consecutive games from Sep. 29 to Oct. 5. Unlike Bautista, Cruz Jr. added plenty of other hits during his streak, recording three doubles and three singles during the six-game stretch.

A talented player who never quite lived up to his top-prospect billing, Cruz Jr. set personal bests in home runs (34), RBI (88), runs (92), stolen bases (32), batting average (.272) and OPS (.856) that year.

Should Bautista extend his streak Tuesday night to match Cruz’s, he’ll sit just two games away from the all-time MLB record of eight straight games with a homer, set by Dale Long (1956), Don Mattingly (1987) and Ken Griffey Jr. (1993), per Baseball-Almanac.com.

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Scott Miller’s Starting 9: Stretch Run Will Tell Tale of Yankees Present, Future

1. Yankees vs. Schedule-Makers

Not that the Yankees are holding open auditions these days, but 52 times this season, Joe Girardi has handed the ball to a rookie starter and steered him toward the mound.

No other team in the majors has started rookie hurlers as often this summer, and only three times since rookie rules were established in 1958 have the Yankees entrusted a larger number of their games to those classified as such: 1991 (54 times), 1986 (54) and 2007 (52).

Click Ahead to Other Topics

• Numbers not adding up for the Orioles
• Finally, the Dodgers find some late-inning magic
• Joey Bats shows his not-so-glamorous side
• The numbers crunch is growing in the Bronx
• Mariners make dizzying history in Boston
• Stephen Strasburg keeps the Nationals guessing
• Is Billy Butler’s glove key to Royals’ renaissance?
• It’s time to start planning for next year for a few teams

Yet each time this seeming pinstriped version of Christians-Lions threatens to become gory (especially with Masahiro Tanaka, who has started 18 times, out)…it doesn’t. The Yankees steal a few wins, the Orioles get swept by a bad Cubs team in Wrigley Field, and, presto, the Yankees’ pulse quickens.

That the Yankees started this week in second place in the AL East, only six games behind Baltimore, is either a testament to their steely resolve and fortitude, or an enormous indictment of the Blue Jays, Rays and Red Sox.

Debate that as you may (correct answer: A lot of both), but now comes the next round of heavy lifting for the Yankees: A key stretch of schedule in which 21 of their next 30 games, taking them through Sept. 25, is against clubs with winning records.

Starting Tuesday, nine of their next 12 are against winning clubs: the Royals, Tigers and Blue Jays. Throw in Tanaka‘s scheduled simulated game Thursday in Detroit, and this is the latest week that could make or break the 2014 Yankees.

What we’re watching is Girardi‘s best job of managing yet and a Yankees club that should leave even the most ardent optimists scratching the stadium giveaway caps sitting atop their heads.

A “future” with Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran really is more of a past. CC Sabathia did what he was supposed to, helping to bring another World Series title to the Bronx (2009), but he’s not going to be leading a staff in his twilight years. And just think, only six more months remain before Alex Rodriguez pops his head out in Tampa like Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania.

What general manager Brian Cashman has been unable to do in the years since the latest dynasty ended in 2000 is establish a pipeline of prospects that replenishes the major league club.

As Derek Jeter enters the final month of his career, the roaring question is: When will the next Jeter emerge from the Yankees’ system? That “Core Four”—Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera…all were drafted or signed and developed in the Yankees’ system.

As for the present, the Yankees have used a franchise-record 31 pitchers so far this season. Only the Texas Rangers (36), hit by a Noah’s Ark-sized flood of injuries, have employed more.

Still, including old warhorses Brandon McCarthy and Chris Capuano, Yankees starters were 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA over their past 18 games heading into Michael Pineda’s start in Kansas City on Monday.

That’s a far better reality for this group than the Yankees had any right to expect. Now strength of schedule comes into play with the force of a USC linebacker.

Of course, the Orioles have helped New York remain alive. No sooner had the Birds opened a commanding nine-game lead in the AL East before they ran smack into the Javier Baez Wrigley Field Wrecking Co.

The result was a 4-5 road trip. Chris Davis is now down to a .190 batting average, the lowest mark of any major leaguer with at least 400 at-bats. And Manny Machado is lost for the season to knee surgery.

So can the Yankees erase the rest of the Orioles’ lead? Or even wipe out a 2.5-game deficit in the wild-card standings, where they trail both the Seattle Mariners and Tigers (emphasizing the magnitude of this week’s series)?

A lot may hinge on the one game this week that doesn’t count, a simulated game scheduled for Thursday that will see Tanaka test his injured elbow, which has had him on the DL since July.

 

2. The Orioles By the Numbers

Just when the Orioles appeared to be running away from the pack in the AL East, they were whacked by the Cubs and sideswiped by news that Manny Machado will be lost for the year due to surgery on his right knee. Last summer, his season ended early with the same procedure on his left knee.

It’s the end of a bizarre season for Machado, who lost it during a series against the A’s in June, was suspended and now says he has abnormal knees, which left them vulnerable to injuries. By having this surgery now, he says, he hopes his knee issues will become a thing of the past

You can’t help but wonder whether Machado’s knees now will compromise his future. He arrived in the majors as such a supreme talent at 19 in 2012. With him and catcher Matt Wieters both out for the season, the Orioles have taken a huge hit.

Meantime, Nelson Cruz leads the majors with 34 homers after Chris Davis’ 53 topped the majors last summer. If Cruz maintains his lead, the Orioles will become only the fourth team since 1920 to have two different players win homer titles in back-to-back seasons, according to STATS, LLC.

The others: The 1936-37 Yankees (Lou Gehrig 49, Joe DiMaggio 46), the 1987-88 Athletics (Mark McGwire 49, Jose Canseco 42) and the 1993-94 Giants (Barry Bonds 46, Matt Williams 43).

 

3. Dodging the Late-Inning Heroics

That the Dodgers beat the Padres 2-1 last Thursday in Dodger Stadium on its own wasn’t a big deal.

That they did it when Justin Turner bashed a two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning? That made it kind of a big deal.

Until then, the Dodgers were 0-46 in games in which they trailed after seven innings this season. They were the only team in the majors without a victory in that situation.

Big deal? Well, to hear radio talkers in Los Angeles, it at times showed a lack of heart, courage, fortitude and guts.

The truth of the matter is the zero wins was the weird part. You’d think that the Dodgers would have snatched one or two by late August. But it’s not like successful clubs always thrive in those situations. The Nationals, leading the NL East, were 6-44 at the time when trailing after seven. The Brewers, leading the NL Central, were 5-41.

Closest to the Dodgers in the NL was the Cardinals, who were 1-43 in those situations (they’re 2-45 now).

 

4. This Week With the Blue Jays

Toronto was supposed to be contending for a playoff slot right about now. Instead, the Blue Jays this month have made spectacles of themselves.

They’re contesting a new logo introduced by the Creighton University Bluejays because, get this, it looks like a Blue Jay.

And as if losing nine of their past 12 isn’t enough to put a damper on any October hopes, Jose Bautista is showing the opposite of leadership skills. After Bautista was ejected by plate ump Bill Welke in the sixth inning of Sunday’s 2-1, 10-inning loss to Tampa Bay, manager John Gibbons let him have it.

“Bottom line is, we needed him in the game,” Gibbons told reporters. “Say your piece and get the hell out of there. We’re trying to get in the playoffs, we need you on the field. He’s a marked man in this game. Bill Welke? I thought he had a pretty good zone today. It was steady, he was calling strikes. He was looking to call strikes. But we need you in the game.”

 

5. The Yankees By the Numbers

It was nice to see the final residue of hard feelings between Joe Torre and the Yankees melt away Saturday as they retired his No. 6. His was the 18th number the Yankees have retired, and at this rate, maybe they could use a few bitter breakups with legends in the near future (like the way the Red Sox always seem to roll!).

They’re going to run out of numbers eventually, and assuming it is a slam dunk that Derek Jeter’s No. 2 eventually will be retired, they’re already out of single-digit numbers in the Bronx:

  1. Billy Martin
  2. Derek Jeter (will be retired eventually)
  3. Babe Ruth
  4. Lou Gehrig
  5. Joe DiMaggio
  6. Joe Torre
  7. Mickey Mantle
  8. Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey
  9. Roger Maris

By the way, for those who don’t know, way back when numbers were first placed onto uniforms, they signified the slot in the batting order that player occupied. Thus, Ruth wore No. 3 and Gehrig No. 4.

 

6. Dizzying Heights for Mariners

Not to make light of Robinson Cano leaving Sunday’s game in Boston because of dizziness—he later said he thought it might be a touch of the flu—but has anyone considered that Cano’s condition might have been results-induced?

 

7. Nationals Alert

Winners of 12 of 14 and hotter than anybody this side of the Kansas City Royals, the Nationals are playing well enough that manager Matt Williams probably is going to have the luxury of arranging his playoff rotation sooner rather than later.

And his Game 1 starter at this point has to be…Jordan Zimmermann? Doug Fister?

There was a time the quick answer would have been Stephen Strasburg. But Strasburg‘s mysterious inconsistency this summer peaked Sunday during the Nationals’ 14-6 laugher over the Giants.

The game became a laugher only after Washington was able to erase the 5-0 deficit Strasburg dug them in the first three innings. Strasburg, who has struggled with fastball location off and on all summer, inexplicably grooved pitches to Travis Ishikawa and Gregor Blanco, both of which turned into home runs.

Already this season, Strasburg has surrendered a career-high 21 homers, five more than he served up all of last year in only 7.2 fewer innings (175.1, as compared to 183 in 2013).

On the flip side, Strasburg leads the NL with 202 strikeouts.

He is an exceptionally hard worker. He cares. And the strikeouts tell you his stuff is still there.

Simply put, he is an ongoing example that this game is nearly impossible to tame, even by the uber-talented. Strasburg still has not lived up to the overwhelming hype that trumpeted his arrival back in 2010. But at 26, there is still time.

Heck, there’s still time for him to tune things up enough this year to start Game 1.

 

8. To DH or Not to DH?

We all know the glory days of the designated hitter—way back when thumpers like Don Baylor, Chili Davis, Edgar Martinez and Brian Downing roamed the earth—have long since passed.

But check out the profile of a guy this summer whom you would think would be the perfect DH, Billy Butler.

As pointed out by stats guru Bill Chuck, in 93 games as a DH this year, Butler is hitting .261/.310/.336 with three homers and 35 RBI.

In 29 games as a first baseman, Butler is at .308/.351/.523 with five homers and 16 RBI.

Oh, and most important: Before July 20, Butler essentially was a full-time DH. Since he’s moved to first base, the Royals had compiled baseball’s best record at 24-8.

 

9. Cool Standings? You Bet

With September drawing near, a check at what used to be coolstandings.com and now is on the FanGraphs.com website:

The current division leader with the greatest probability of winning its division is the Nationals (at 98.9 percent), followed by the Dodgers (92.5), Orioles (89.5), A’s (56.8) and Royals (46.5).

The NL Central? That’s the most fascinating division, according to the probabilities: The Brewers currently lead the Cardinals by 1.5 games…yet the Cardinals (48 percent) have a higher probability of winning the division than the Brewers (47.2).

According to FanGraphs‘ Cool Standings, nine teams can begin looking to next summer, with a zero percent chance at this year’s wild-card slots: The Red Sox, White Sox, Twins, Astros, Rangers, Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Rockies.

 

9a. Rock ‘n’ Roll Lyric of the Week

A prayer for Ferguson, Missouri, and for the greater good to be done throughout our land….

“Mother, mother

“There’s too many of you crying

“Brother, brother, brother

“There’s far too many of you dying

“You know we’ve got to find a way

“To bring some lovin‘ here today, ya

“Father, father

“We don’t need to escalate

“You see, war is not the answer

“For only love can conquer hate

“You know we’ve got to find a way

“To bring some lovin‘ here today”

— Marvin Gaye, “What’s Going On”

 

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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