Kuzul

Injuries continue to dominate the news, but today it is far from all bad.  We have multiple pieces of good news concerning injuries tonight as well as some bad as one of the top pitchers in baseball suffers a tough injury. There is also news of the AL Rookie of the Year and what his role will be this season, along with news and notes from today’s games from Arizona and Florida on some players that you surely have questions about heading into your drafts. As always you can email me at ryan@fantasyalarm.com for all of your predraft questions along with advice throughout the year.

Zack Greinke suffered a hairline fracture of a rib playing basketball and it doesn’t appear that he will be ready to start the season.  The preliminary timeline is for him to miss four to six weeks, which could stretch out another week or two as he prepares for the season.  That being said I don’t see this being a huge injury in which you should really downgrade Greinke in your rankings.  Say he misses six weeks, with three weeks left before the season starts, that means he might miss three or four starts. In a normal season a starting pitcher gets 30-35 starts. If he misses three or four is that worth downgrading him down your rankings? Personally I don’t think so and feel you should still be taking Greinke in the first 14-17 pitchers.

Twins’ first baseman Justin Morneau finally got back on the field today and he made the most of his opportunity.  Morneau didn’t play the whole game, but he did get two at bats, and in the second one he hit a bases clearing double. It is great to see him on the field with three weeks before the season starts, but I am still concerned about Morneau.  He has had two concussions in his career, and I am worried that he is one collision at home plate or with a teammate away from missing a month again or potentially more.  Don’t forget his concussion last season was suffered in the beginning of July, and today was his first game back.  I still love Morneau, but am very concerned about him this season.

The Rangers are going to have Neftali Feliz finish out the next game he pitches by throwing in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings, and right now all signs are pointing to him being the Texas closer again in 2011.  The team has not made it official yet, but it is just a matter of time.  Other starters such as Matt Harrison, Tommy Hunter, and Derek Holland are all looking like they are ready for a rotation spot, as well as the Rangers hoping for the return of Brandon Wood.  This all makes it easier for them to put Feliz back in the bullpen and you should draft him accordingly. He will again be one of the best closers in baseball and should be drafted as such.

Carlos Beltran will miss the next week or so of spring with tendonitis in his knee. The good news is that it is not his surgically repaired knee, but the bad news is that now both of his knees are tender. The team is trying to downplay the situation, but you can’t help but be concerned with the fact that this guy has missed most of the last two seasons and he doesn’t even make it to the regular season without a setback. I am not going to touch Beltran in drafts this year as he is so injury prone, and even if he is able to stay healthy you can best believe that he will be taking days off all season long in an attempt to keep him on the field.  That kind of player isn’t worth it to me.

Orioles’ first baseman Derrek Lee is going to have an MRI on his wrist, as he is experiencing some lingering soreness that is not going away. Lee had offseason surgery on his thumb so this is slightly different, but there is still concern about Lee who has been dealing with injuries more and more as he gets older. I think Lee can have a fine season for Baltimore if he is ready for Opening Day and right now it still seems like he will be just that. Unless the news on the MRI is bad, I would continue to draft Lee as a corner infielder or utility player, but he is no longer a good starting first baseman in fantasy baseball.

Brian Roberts is dealing with back spasms, and the injury concerns continue to mount with Roberts.  He missed a lot of last season with back and neck issues and the fact that he is having more issues is a concern.  He is 33 years old, but likely has the body of a 45 year old with all of the wear and tear he has suffered in his career.  Right now with the plethora of good second baseman out there I am staying totally away from Roberts.  There are just too many issues with him and the season hasn’t even started yet.

Josh Beckett took the mound in a game for the first time since his concussion and was pretty good.  He allowed one earned run over 3.2 innings and struck out four while only walking one.  I don’t see this concussion as being an issue that affects Beckett during the season and you can feel free to draft him as if that baseball never cracked him in the dome. Whether he can rebound from last season’s disaster is a different discussion, but the injury concern should be behind him.

Arizona’s Daniel Hudson won his first spring game as he allowed just one earned run over three innings and struck out four against the Indians. He now has a 2.57 ERA in the spring, as he attempts to continue his great rookie season.  This was against the Indians and early in spring training, but Hudson looks like he will be a great fourth starter on your fantasy team, but don’t stretch too far for him following his 2010 breakout.

Apparently Alcides Escobar’s infected bug bite isn’t that big of a deal as he returned to the field on Tuesday, went 2-2 and even stole a base.  Even though he had a very disappointing rookie season, I really like Escobar in Kansas City and as a late round option at shortstop if you don’t get one of the better guys at the position. He is sure to run more with the Royals and he has to improve on his stats. Don’t let this slight blip on the radar prevent you from taking a chance on him.

More good news for the Red Sox on injured players is Jacoby Ellsbury was 3-4 on Tuesday and not only drove in his first spring run, but also stole a base. Ellsbury had a nightmare 2010 after an outfield collision with Mike Cameron, but he appears to be fully healthy and should be able to return to his pre-injury form and should be a great source of steals for your fantasy team.

Andy LaRoche continues to tear up Spring Training as he had two more hits, including his third homer already and drove in his fifth run in March. LaRoche was always a high ranking prospect for the Dodgers, but he has bounced around and has been a total flop to this point in his career.  Andy actually projected to be much better than his older brother Adam, but so far he has been unable to even hold a starting job. I am still not even thinking about drafting the younger LaRoche at this point because of his struggles so far in his career and there also doesn’t appear to be a place for him to play in Oakland.  However, I am going to continue to monitor him this spring as he does have incredible talent and has potential to be a good player.

For the latest in breaking fantasy news, please check us out at www.FantasyAlarm.com!

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On Monday, Josh Beckett was struck in the head with a ball during batting practice at the Red Sox spring training camp. Thankfully, he is okay and should not miss any regular season time.

These kinds of freak accidents happen every single year in spring training. We wanted to find the strangest of the strange and present them to you in a nice tiny ball, or slideshow in this case.

These can range from someone getting hit in the head with a ball during batting practice, like Beckett just did, to someone blowing a bird to pieces with a fastball, like Randy Johnson.

Here are the strangest spring training mishaps ever.

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The 2011 MLB season is right around the corner.

Spring training is upon us and players are looking to standout and build up momentum heading into the upcoming season. 

While many of these players are rookies and young talents trying to land a roster spot in the big leagues, some are veterans and proven players who are trying to rebuild their reputation.

Whether they’ve been traded from the AL to the NL, are finally healthy, or were unable to perform in 2010, these players are looking to prove their worth to the baseball community.

The success of these players could make or break their teams success in the coming year, while the second half of their careers could hang in the balance.

We take a look at those once “prime-time” players who are looking to rebound in 2011 after a disappointing 2010.

The top 10 rebound candidates are…

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It’s no secret that in 2010 Josh Beckett probably had one of his worst years, if not the worst year of his Major League Baseball career, depending on who you talk to. He finished 6-6 with only 127 innings pitched and an ERA of 5.78.

Aside from all the team injuries, Beckett’s lost season was a HUGE reason why the Red Sox finished out of playoff contention in 2010.

The Red Sox were still able to win 89 games and finished seven games out of first place in the American League East.

At the close of the 2010 regular season, Terry Francona stated, “not everything has gone right. But you can bet Beckett is going to go home and work. He needs a clean slate, that will be good for him.”

Theo and the Red Sox brass went out this offseason and made the necessary acquisitions by adding Crawford and Gonzalez, making them one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

However, we all know that good pitching beats good hitting. Francona stated, “If you pitch, you give yourself a chance”. With the same usual suspects in the Red Sox starting rotation going into 2011, someone needs to step it up aside from Lester and Buchholtz. 

In 2010, Lester was 19-9 with a 3.25 ERA and striking out 225 batters while Buchholtz won 17 and lost seven while only allowing nine home runs in 173 2/3 innings and an ERA of 2.33. 

Lackey and Matsuzaka are what they are, if Lackey and Matsuzaka can give you a combined 22-25 wins and 370-400 innings pitched, Red Sox nation should take it and run.  

If Wakefield gets to start in 2011, they’ll probably be spot starts here and there; whatever innings he can eat up provided there’s not too much damage, will help the pitching staff. 

So what does this all mean? It means that Josh Beckett needs to step up and at least be three quarters of what he’s been in the past.

If Beckett can win 15 games and pitch anything close to 170-200 innings, he puts the Red Sox in serious contention to win the 2011 world series.

With Beckett’s focus, attitude and Clemens like demeanor on the mound, I see no reason for him not to have a bounce-back year. 

After a shaky 2002 season in Florida where he finished 6-7 with a .462 winning percentage and a 4.10 era, Beckett bounced back the following year by leading his team to the World Series against the New York Yankees and winning the World Series MVP award.  

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It is preposterous to think we know what is going to happen as the season progresses. There will be injuries. There will be trades. There will be unexpected distractions that impede a team’s progress.

That being said, this is how one person thinks the 2011 MLB Postseason might go, if the teams stay as they are, and no key players get hurt, and players don’t crash into unlucky, year-long, Adam Lind-status slumps. 

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Spring training is a great opportunity to get a sense of how a player’s offseason went, and what to expect in terms of improvement or regression. How a player performs during spring training often helps scouts see how players are recovering from injury or whether or not to expect a player who disappointed the previous season to bounce back.

An example of a player’s spring training being indicative of a player’s regular season performance is Chris Johnson. In 2010, his spring training stat line was: .323/8/22 in just 63 at-bats. While he did not continue this 65-75 home run pace, he did have a strong season. The same idea goes for Jose Bautista, who had a phenomenal spring training.

Spring training is not always accurate, however, it is the best way to get an idea of a player before the season starts. So, in this article, I will examine the 15 most important players to watch this spring training in the American League East.

This list includes prospects, bounce back candidates, new acquisitions and more. The rank is based on a combination of how important the player’s return is to his respective team and how controversial the player’s 2011 projections are. 

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Pitchers in hitter-friendly ballparks or tough divisions may benefit from being traded. The same applies to struggling pitchers in search of redemption.

The Seattle Mariners would be a good destination for such pitchers. The home of the Mariners, Safeco Field, is the most pitching-friendly venue in the American League and the AL West division isn’t too frightening.

The following ten pitchers would benefit from moving to Seattle. Interested to find out who they are? Read on.

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Given the monstrous improvements the Boston Red Sox have made this winter, it’s funny to look back and consider that the “prize” of the last Hot Stove season in Beantown was none other than John Lackey.

It was something of a puzzling move when it was made, even more so when considering the generally “crap-tastic” season Lackey turned in last summer.

The other big news last winter came when the Sox inked Josh Beckett to a four-year, $68 million extension, an extension – look away if you have a weak stomach – that he’s just beginning now.

This after what can only be characterized as a disastrous season on the mound.

It’s easy to overlook the pair of hurlers given the Cy Young candidacy of Jon Lester and the emerging dominance of Clay Buchholz, but Sox fans would be wise not to lose sight of Beckett and Lackey.

For if the Red Sox are going to take a major step forward this year, one or both of them will have to find a way to resemble their old selves. Or at least dependable, big-league pitchers.

Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are tremendous acquisitions, and the lineup is now an unquestionable strength of the team. The bullpen, too, appears to have been solidified with the additions of Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler, among others.

But take an effective Beckett and Lackey away from the starting rotation and suddenly you have two reliable starters and a bunch of question marks.

That’s what’s known in baseball circles as a big-time problem.

Beckett has had a disturbing habit of alternating between very good and very bad years, and by that math he is due for a standout campaign.

He also battled injuries last season and never rounded into form. There’s certainly evidence that proves how impressive he can be when he’s right, but the Sox are going to need at least a few glimpses of that Josh Beckett in the early going.

Lackey remains an even bigger question. Will he be the pitcher the Sox thought they were getting or will he remain Daisuke’s brother from another mother, an inconsistent hurler who is wildly frustrating to watch on the hill?

The truth of the matter is the Sox are probably deep enough to survive a sub-par season from one of the two.

But they can’t both disappear again like they did last summer. At least one of these guys is going to have to man up and pitch like the kind of guy worth the insane lumps of cash the Sox are shelling out.

Because for all the talk about how much better the Red Sox are, things will implode faster than the Metrodome roof if the team can’t go any deeper than two reliable starters.

And I’m not ready to lean on Daisuke or Tim Wakefield if Beckett and Lackey continue to struggle.

Are you?

Josh Beckett and John Lackey have a proven track record as solid starting pitchers. Beckett has been an ace and filed one of the great postseasons in recent pitching history. The bottom line is that the talent is there.

But the Red Sox will need to see it on the field this summer, or what has been hyped as a fairy tale story could wind up with a depressing ending.

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Josh Beckett was a train wreck last year. He’s been alternating between great and decent years since 2004.

2004:  9-9, 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
2005:  15-8, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2006:  16-11, 5.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2007:  20-7, 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
2008:  12-10, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
2009:  17-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Following that trend, he was due for a down year, and did he ever.

Beckett went 6-6 in 21 starts with a ridiculous 5.78 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He entered the year with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. After last year’s debacle, those numbers are up to 3.96 and 1.24, which is crazy considering he’s pitched 1,528 2/3 innings.

Beckett turned 30 last year (he’ll be 31 in May), and wouldn’t be the first star pitcher to flame out early. Dwight Gooden went downhill when he turned 29. Fernando Valenzuela at 27. Barry Zito at 29. Carlos Zambrano hasn’t been the same since he was 27.

I’m not quite ready to write him off, but there definitely is cause for concern. He finished off 2009 going 5-2, but he posted a 4.60 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. That gives him an ERA of 5.34 in his past 204 innings.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Beckett though. He has a track record of bouncing back after down years. Plus, just because he’ll turn 31 in May doesn’t mean he’s used goods. After all, he’s not a running back.

He also isn’t as big of a risk in 2011 for the simple fact that he’ll be going much later in fantasy drafts than usual. Having your number one or two fantasy starter struggle is hard to overcome. If it’s your third or fourth though, it’s not nearly as devastating.

Health will obviously be an issue with Beckett, but with the improvements the Red Sox made on offense, he could easily win 15 games, even if his peripherals aren’t what you came to expect from Beckett prior to last year.

Do you think Beckett is done or do you think last year was just a fluke?

Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings

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The Red Sox have one of the most solid rotations in baseball, both in terms of on-field quality and stability.  They have six major league-ready starters and, barring injury, not many of their prospects will see a start. 

Jon Lester is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball.  I’ve loved him since 2008, when I stupidly refused to trade Shawn Marcum for him, and made sure I drafted him in 2009 and 2010.  

I mean, what’s not to like? 

He’s improved every year, he strikes out a ton of hitters (more than a strikeout per inning in both 2009 and 2010), he wins (16, 15 and 19 wins over the past three years, he doesn’t get hurt (33, 32 and 32 starts the past three years) and he keeps his ERA and WHIP manageable and his BAA even better.  

He’s one of the first pitchers I’m taking this year—right in the same class as Halladay, Lee, Sabathia, etc.

John Lackey used to be one of my favorite pitchers in baseball.  I owned him for what felt like 10 straight years, including last year.  

But I can’t help but wonder if his best days are behind him.  

Yes, he pitching for the Red Sox probably means five extra wins per year, but considering he only won 14 last year, those wins are not enough to offset the fact that his ERA, WHIP, BAA and K/IP have all worsened since 2008.  

For a guy with a history of arm troubles and an age on the wrong side of 30 by a couple years, I say buyer beware.

Josh Beckett…

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