Kuzul

The 2010 season for the Boston Red Sox was riddled with injuries and inconsistency. The club struggled to an 89-73 record and a third place finish in the competitive American League East. 

The Sox front office looked to revamp their rosters, and create a buzz around Boston, with an offseason spending spree. With the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford the Red Sox will enter 2011 with the highest payroll in all of Major League Baseball.

It is only natural that a payroll of that magnitude comes with serious expectations. By many peoples count the Sox are the pre-season favorite to with the American League pennant. But pennants aren’t won on paper and they certainly arent won in the off-season.

If the Red Sox expect to make a run at a World Series in 2011 then they will need a lot of production and even more luck. However, if they are able to mesh everything together then they could stand to be the most dangerous team in the entire league.

This list is not to say these players are the best players on the Red Sox. Rather it is a realization that if the Sox are to win the World Series then these players are going to have to play a prominent role.

Without further delay here are the ten most important Boston Red Sox for the 2011 World Championship run.

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It’s hard not to be giddy with anticipation right now if you’re a Boston Red Sox fan. 

Coming off a frustrating season in which the team finished 7 games back in the AL East and had to watch the playoffs on their flat-screen TVs just like the rest of us, the Red Sox went out and acquired Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, two of the most coveted players in the game, both in the early part of their prime. 

Red Sox Nation has not seen such a major retooling of the lineup since the early 2000’s, when the team added Manny Ramirez (’01) and David Ortiz (’03), and in the process established themselves as a perennial 90-plus win team and championship contender.  And this time it happened in just a matter of days instead of several years.

Sure, the Red Sox still face some minor offensive questions heading into spring training.  Will Crawford bat leadoff or third?  Where will Jacoby Ellsbury hit in the lineup?  Will Boston have some struggles against left-handed pitching, given that Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are their only dangerous right-handed bats?

But these concerns truly are minor.  The Red Sox are going to score runs, and they’re going to score runs consistently.  They were second in all of baseball in runs scored last season, and the combination of Gonzalez, Crawford, a healthy Ellsbury, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia should at least rival the production the team received from departed free agents Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, along with the array of outfielders that frequently found their way into the lineup last year (Bill Hall, Darnell McDonald, Ryan Kalish, Jeremy Hermida, Mike Cameron, and Daniel Nava). 

The real reason the Gonzalez and Crawford additions should be celebrated is because they set the Red Sox lineup up well for the long run. 

Both players are under 30 years old, while Martinez and Beltre are on the wrong side of 30.  Crawford brings across the board production and skills, while Martinez becomes more and more one-dimensional as he gets older and is able to catch fewer and fewer games.  Gonzalez’s production in San Diego was held back by the worst ballpark for hitters in the majors, whereas Beltre, much like in 2004, is coming off a career year as he went in search of a new contract. (Beltre surpassed 100 RBIs and a .320 batting average in both his 2004 and 2010 contract years, but has not driven in 100 runs or hit above .276 in any other season since 2001.) 

But while GM Theo Epstein did very well to acquire two major assets who should serve the team well for years, the Red Sox 2011 season will all come down to the performance of the pitching staff, and the starting rotation in particular. 

The Red Sox finished 22nd in baseball in ERA in 2010. Few saw it coming, the Sporting News’ 2010 Red Sox preview, for one. The Sporting News wondered if the Red Sox “have enough offense” and their main concern with the pitching staff was “Who will be left out of the rotation,” since Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, and Clay Buchholz all seemed like strong options.  The Sporting News preview gave the Red Sox pitching staff an A grade–an evaluation which was the norm among baseball experts at the time.

Lester certainly held up his end of the bargain, and Buchholz developed into a dominating ace-caliber starter faster than even the most optimistic fan could have predicted.  Wakefield and Matsuzaka’s struggles should not come as too great a surprise.

The real problem was that Lackey struggled mightily in his move from the AL West to AL East, and no one anticipated that the bottom would fall out completely for Beckett.

The Red Sox also ranked near the bottom of the league (23rd) in bullpen ERA, which came as a major surprise after they finished in the top 10 in 2009.   While Daniel Bard established himself as the team’s closer of the future, Jonathan Papelbon had a sub par year, and no other reliever registered an ERA under 4.  Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez, who each played key roles in the bullpen in 2009, fell off considerably. 

Papelbon should rebound heading into a contract year.  And the Sox beefed up the bullpen with their offseason acquisitions of Dan Wheeler and Bobby Jenks.  Wheeler makes for a very solid addition.  He knows what it takes to succeed in the AL East, and has done quite well in each of the last three seasons in Tampa Bay.  While Jenks’ name recognition probably rates higher than his actual value at this point, it would not be surprising for him to register a strong year pitching in middle relief rather than the pressure cooker of the ninth inning. 

In the end, despite all of Epstein’s impressive moves this winter, the Red Sox 2011 season will be largely determined by two players that were already on the team last year: Lackey and Beckett.  There are real questions about whether each is breaking down physically and can return to their former level of performance. 

If Lackey and Beckett each continue to falter, Sox fans will have to hope for many 11-9 victories this summer. But if at least one of them can turn things around, the Red Sox have to be considered a World Series favorite. 

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After defeating the Yankees in 2003 as a member of the Florida Marlins, Josh Beckett officially became an ace. While his ’03 season was impressive in its own right (3.04 ERA, 142 IP), his dominant post-season performance gave him the stage he needed to show the world how great he could be.

Two more solid seasons with the Marlins only reinforced this, and then the Red Sox came calling. Boston agreed to part with its best prospect, Hanley Ramirez (probably the best prospect since Nomar Garciaparra), to make Beckett their number one starter…a Yankee killer.

Five up-and-down seasons later, Beckett hasn’t live up to that potential. Only one of those five seasons could truly be called ace-worthy (2007), and he’s actually had an ERA over 5.00 in two of them (2006, 2010). All of this begs the question, “Is Beckett really that good?”

I’m not going to sit here and pretend to tell you how awesome Beckett is and how I think he’ll rebound in 2011 to become the front line starter we peg him as every season (much like Zack Greinke). At this point in his career he has shown us he can be great or he can be terrible. The trick is finding where in the draft it’s worth taking the risk. I wouldn’t want Beckett to be my team’s number one starter any more than I’d want Michael Vick to be my dog walker.

Now in his 10th season, Beckett has developed some definite strengths and weaknesses, so what should we know before getting involved with this perennial heartbreaker?

Strengths

Beckett finished with WHIPs of 1.14, 1.19 and 1.19 in the three years prior to 2010, respectively, due in part to underrated control (again, prior to 2010) and a better-than-league-average opponents’ average (.249 career). He’s a good strikeout pitcher, averaging 188 Ks from 2007-2009, and he’s maintained low fly ball rates and a career GB:FB ratio of 1.25. His first-pitch strike rate was up each year from 2007-2009.

Weaknesses

Beckett only started 30-plus games in three of nine full seasons, he’s allowed 45 home runs in last two seasons combined and 36 in 2006 alone, and his career 4.59 ERA at Fenway Park is way too high (career 3.68 everywhere else).

What we notice from this quick exercise is that Beckett was actually fairly reliable in the three years prior to last season’s injury-induced meltdown. He’s hardly durable, and Fenway hasn’t been his friend, but Beckett has solid peripherals that indicate he still has what it takes to be a successful starter. Unlike Florida’s newest acquisition, Javier Vazquez, Beckett’s velocity didn’t drop suddenly, so we have little reason to expect a serious injury is lurking out of sight.

From a fantasy perspective, I currently have Beckett ranked as the 27th best starter just behind Dan Haren, Roy Oswalt, Shaun Marcum and Matt Garza and just ahead of Tim Hudson, Ryan Dempster, Jonathan Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco. Given his talent, win potential, and Boston’s improved bullpen, I think Beckett is a good risk to take for 2010.

Fearless Forecast

16-8 | 3.55 ERA | 1.17 WHIP | 186 K | 8.60 K/9 |195 IP

And check out Baseball Professor for more Fearless Forecasts and fantasy baseball rankings.

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This season you saw some new names with the Boston Red Sox. So what names will be heard again when Opening Day comes? This is who to expect in Boston for the 2011 MLB season. This also looks at the Derek Jeter rumor around the middle, and what you should expect of the Yankee captain. The Red Sox struggled due to injury in 2010, but expect many players to return to form, and see some players attempt to kick start their career once again. Expect Boston to make a few key moves to cover their needs, which range from relief pitching, to outfield, and of course the corners of the infield are a hot topic.

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It’s official: free agent catcher Victor Martinez has signed a 4 year, $50 million deal with the Detroit Tigers, leaving a noticeable void behind the plate for the Boston Red Sox.

Let it be known that Martinez did not want to leave. He wanted to know where he would likely play out the remainder of his career, and where he would likely retire. He wanted to know where his son, Victor Jose, would be going to school. He wanted to know where he and his family would be calling home for the foreseeable future. The Red Sox provided no certain answers to any of these questions, so V-Mart had to leave.

Some people have blamed the Red Sox for letting one of the most important pieces leave. Others have applauded it, saying that most catchers decline rapidly once they hit their 30s, so Martinez won’t be worth the money.

I don’t think letting Victor leave was a good idea, and here’s why; without further ado, I present “10 Reasons Red Sox Will Regret Losing Him.”

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In his young career, Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants has accomplished some pretty special things on a pitching mound. Already owning two Cy Young awards, he has now added a World Series title, in which he out-pitched Cliff Lee in the clinching game to earn the Giants their first title since moving out west from New York.

Lincecum and his merry band of outsiders, otherwise known as the 2010 San Francisco Giants, out-pitched, outhit, and outclassed the Texas Rangers in every facet of the game, earning themselves baseball’s most coveted prize, the title of World Series Champions.

Facing an offensive powerhouse, led by leading American League MVP candidate, Josh Hamilton, as well a pitching staff headed by modern postseason legend, Cliff Lee, the San Francisco Giants weren’t expected to have much of a chance against the Texas Rangers. Relishing the underdog nature of their title challenge, the Giants went to work, with several dominant pitching performances and a rotating cast of characters providing heroics each night.

The resulting five game World Series victory is the Giants’ first championship since 1954, and the lone title they have won since relocating to San Francisco prior to the 1958 season.

Led by their own pitching phenom, Tim Lincecum, the Giants proved that strong pitching is the key to baseball postseason success. Lincecum’s stellar effort, coming five days after an uneven Game 1 start, would be enough to stifle the powerful Rangers and claim the championship.

San Francisco’s unorthodox right-hander already authored a classic postseason start in his personal playoff debut during the NLDS, but his World Series clinching Game 5 performance will stand as one of the greatest clinching performances baseball has seen.

Let’s see where Lincecum’s gem ranks among the greatest World Series clinching, starting pitching performances of all time.

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Josh Beckett suffered through one of the worst seasons of his career.  All you have to do is look at the numbers to understand just how bad it was:

6 Wins
127.2 Innings
5.78 ERA
1.54 WHIP
116 Strikeouts (8.2 K/9)
45 Walks (3.2 BB/9)
.349 BABIP

Before we get into specifics, Beckett has coincidentally alternated good and bad years dating back to 2005.  It’s odd, for sure, but it actually is a fact.  Just look at his ERAs:

• 2005 – 3.37
• 2006 – 5.01
• 2007 – 3.27
• 2008 – 4.03
• 2009 – 3.86

And then last year’s disaster, which is the worst of them all.  It was the first time since 2003 that he had a WHIP above 1.29.  The first time since 2006 that he had a WHIP above 1.19.

The BABIP played a major role in his struggles.  He clearly suffered from subpar luck, both there and in his strand rate (65.3%).  A pitcher of his stature is not supposed to go through years like this.  He has the stuff to excel and that is supposed to trump bad luck.

Unfortunately, that’s just not the way baseball works.  There are year’s where the luck just doesn’t even out and skill is irrelevant.  That’s one of the major reasons that Beckett’s numbers were as poor as they were.

He also suffered from back problems, which likely helped his control suffer.  His BB/9 the previous three seasons had been 1.8, 1.8 and 2.3.  While his 3.2 is still very good, it’s not in the same class that he has shown capable.

A lot of those problems were in the first half of the season, when he posted a 3.8 BB/9.  After the All-Star Break, when his health appeared to be better (he made six starts in August and five starts in September), his BB/9 was at 2.9.  That’s significantly more palatable, and more in line with what he has proven capable in the past.

None of that even mentions how home run prone he suddenly became.  Over the past three seasons he had posted HR/9 of 0.8, 0.9 and 1.1.  In 2010, his mark was at 1.4.

There’s nothing significant in the numbers that scream regression, though his HR/FB was his highest since 2006, posting a 14.2% mark.  It’s very easy to see this number falling back in line as well.

The Red Sox had significant problems throughout the year with injuries and inability.  It was just one thing after another, with seemingly all of their key players missing time at one point or another.

That being said, it’s impossible to take Beckett’s struggles too seriously.  He’s proven just how good he good be in the past and while he had his problems, a lot of them were due to bad luck more than anything else.

He showed that he still had his control in the second half.  At 30-years old, it’s easy to believe that he’s going to turn things around, just like he always seems capable of doing.  He’s proven time and time again that he’s worth owning in all formats, and 2011 should be seen as nothing different.

It’s too early to tell where he is going to go on draft day, but if other owners are scared off, you are likely to get quite the bargain if you are willing to take the risk.

What are your thoughts on Beckett?  Do you think he’s going to rebound in 2011?  Do you think he is going to struggle once again?

Make sure to check out our review of other players who struggled in 2010 and their prospects for a rebound:

• Hill, Aaron
• Lind, Adam

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Mike Lowell will be honored tonight by the Boston Red Sox with “Thanks, Mike Night”, as we say goodbye to the consummate professional after 13 remarkable seasons. Lowell has announced that he will retire at the end of this season.

It’s been a tumultuous year for the once slick-fielding third baseman. Lowell has been on the verge of being granted his outright release multiple times throughout the season, and has had to endure being relegated to the bench for the first time in his career.

But good things come to those who wait, as Lowell will finish his major league career this weekend against the New York Yankees as the Red Sox starting third baseman. Adrian Beltre, Boston’s regular third baseman and Lowell’s replacement in 2010, has left the team to witness the birth of his third child.

So with Lowell at the plate and bat at the ready, let’s take a look back at the career of one of the most humble athletes to every play the game.

Mike Lowell, we honor you.

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As fantasy owners, we’ve all been burned.  We know what it feels like, and the stages of remorse that comes with it.

First, there’s denial. Denial that the player you coveted on draft day could really be this terrible, and that all your research and preparation was, well, dead wrong.

Then comes anger. Angst at said player for his exceeding levels of sucktitude.  You drafted him early enough where he still gets free passes after a slow start/poor outing, but there’s only so much a self respecting owner can take.

Finally, acceptance.

Ah, who am I kidding? The third stage is only more anger.  Followed by kicking that player to the free agent curb the same way Uncle Phil used to hoist DJ Jazzy Jeff onto his lawn in “Fresh Prince of Bel Aire.”

For those in roto leagues, these pitchers have not only burned a hole in your ERA, but one deep inside the carpals of your heart as well with their astounding rebound performances in the second half.  They’ve been dropped, forgotten about, left for dead, and left you with the open wounds of a team ERA that still hasn’t dipped blow 4.00.

It’s like going through a messy divorce with your wife, losing half your belongings and property in the process, only to find out just months later she’s met a charming Wall Street CEO with a mansion and fountain that spits Courvoisier.

And she’s pregnant.

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There are several managers in Major League Baseball who have put together a solid case for Manager of the Year. I have selected my top three front runners for the award.

Many baseball fans view managers like cloths on a stripper, they are useless excuses for keeping you from what you really want to see.

To win the honors for Manager of the Year they need to achieve at least one of the following accomplishments.

1. Exceed preseason expectations

2. Manage the team through great adversity

3. Take the team to the post-season

Dusty Baker / Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are currently in the lead of the NL Central by 3.5 games over the preseason heavy favorite, St. Louis Cardinals.

Before the season started I predicted they would be in the mix for the wildcard, but would fall short to the Atlanta Braves, currently leading the NL East by 3 games.

The Reds have a legitimate shot at making the post-season and large part of that is do to the amazing surprise play of Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and the entire pitching staff.

However, Baker has to get a lot of credit for managing a team that many thought was a year or two away from being this competitive. The one down fall I would credit Baker with is the over use of closer Francisco Cordero—this is something that will come back to haunt him in September and October.

Bud Black / San Diego Padres

Currently the Padres have the best record in the National League. To say that Black has done a good job this season, would be like saying Jennifer Aniston looks okay naked.

I was way off on my preseason prediction of the Padres, and only recently was willing to admit that I think this team is for real.

Until the recent trade deadline acquisitions of Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick this offense looked less intimidating than most little league teams —with the exception of Adrian Gonzalez.

Black had his players over achieving all season long by stealing and calling timely hit-and-run plays.

They lost arguably one of their best pitchers in the first week of the season in Chris Young and still lead the league in team ERA.

The NL West is the second toughest division in baseball and Black has his team at the top, cruising to the playoffs.

Terry Francona / Boston Red Sox

The Sox play in the best division in baseball. They make up half of one of the greatest rivalries in sports. I’m not a Sox fan, in fact I’m kind of a closet fan of their greatest enemies.

However, I can’t ignore the incomprehensible job Francona has done managing a team that has suffered so many key injuries.

On top of this fact they still have a chance at the post-season, sitting 6.5 games back of the New York Yankees and 5.5 games back of the wildcard leading Tampa Bay Rays.

I personally don’t think they have a chance at making the playoffs this year—I’m not just saying that to rile up Boston fans, I predicted it before the season as well.

Dustin Pedroia has spent significant time on the DL, Jacoby Ellsbury has been out for most of the season and will likely miss the remainder, and my personal favorite Red Sox player Kevin Youkilis is out for the year.

Many other key contributors have spent time on the DL including supposed ace pitcher Josh Beckett. Francona hasn’t even been able to count on Beckett for a big start all season.

To me Beckett is overrated and suffers from injuries every season. I’ll give you the fact that he is dominant in the post-season, but needs to stay healthy and pitch better in the regular season before I believe he is among the best.

Earlier in the season he lit a fire under the overrated, overweight, lovable David Ortiz and got more production from him than many people thought he had left.

Francona is on of the best managers the game has seen in years. Francona always says and does the right things in my opinion, and the way he has kept his team in the race and juggled the lineup on a seemingly night-to-night basis makes him the leader for Manager of the Year.

Check out my weekly “Sluggers and Slugs” column for other honorable mentions

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