Kuzul

The Red Sox may have finally found the formula for letting John Lackey settle in on Friday evening: Put up a 10-spot in the first inning.

All kidding aside, though, Lackey has struggled to assimilate to the Red Sox pitching staff, be it because of nerves, traditional slow starts, or whatever.

But the fact of the matter is, he hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype— or contract—thus far, and has been no better than the third best pitcher on the staff behind Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, neither of whom are in Lackey’s salary neighborhood.

But one has to imagine that Lackey will find the touch before too long. He has a more than respectable pedigree and has proven so formidable in big-game situations that the Angels tossed him out there to start Game Seven of the World Series when Lackey was just a rookie.

But Lackey’s struggles are part of what makes this such a bizarre season so far. The Red Sox have escaped a brutal start and crawled back into playoff contention all without receiving anything close to a major contribution from two of the three pitchers slated for the top of the rotation.

Josh Beckett battled wildness for more than a month before being shelved with an injury that threatens to keep him out for another flip of the calendar. And Lackey is toting an uncharacteristic 4.54 ERA through 13 starts.

If someone told me we’d be in mid-June with little or nothing of consequence from those two guys, I’d have been thinking, “When does hockey start?”

And that’s the encouraging thing. For all the troubles the Red Sox went through in April and early May—and the list is frustratingly long—things are hardly dire. Consider that Boston has climbed to nine games over .500 and only four behind the Rays essentially without the services of Jacoby Ellsbury or Josh Beckett and with sub-par performances from Lackey and, for at least a month-and-a-half, David Ortiz.

Of course, such is life in Major League Baseball. Rarely if ever do all 25 guys fire on all cylinders at the same time, and it’s the nature of good teams to have role players step up while the others find their way. In that sense, the Red Sox are not re-inventing the wheel.

But they have to feel confident knowing that after the All-Star Break, they’ll presumably have a healthy Ellsbury and Beckett. And Lackey will no doubt have found his way by then.

The rest alone could be key for Beckett, who has historically benefited from extra days off en route to the postseason, where he’s done his most memorable damage.

So while Lackey continues to struggle to live up to his contract and off-season hype, the time for official panic has not yet arrived.

In fact, given where the Sox are and what they’ve dealt with, perhaps the outlook is rosier than we all think.

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Alright, I’m finally ready to talk some baseball.

Not that I haven’t been paying attention, quite the opposite actually. Because of my line of work, I find myself watching more baseball than ever before—on Mondays and Thursdays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays, not to mention the nationally televised games on Saturday and Sunday.

I see more of Buster Olney and John Kruk then I do of my own family. I even hear Tim McCarver and Joe Morgan’s voices in my dreams, which as you might guess, very quickly become nightmares.

But the real reason I haven’t talked much baseball is that I haven’t had a really good feel for my team, the Boston Red Sox.

Okay, I take that back, I do have a good feel for the Red Sox. And to quote the infamous words of former Arizona Cardinals football coach Denny Grenn, “They are who we thought they were.” To me, that was never a playoff team.

(This is just PART of Aaron’s take on the Boston Red Sox. To read this article in its ENTIRETY, please visit him at www.aarontorres-sports.com)

In my season opening podcast with my buddy Tom Finn , I made the case that I thought the Yankees would win the AL East and Tampa Bay, the wild card. When it came to the Red Sox, “pitching and defense,” was a cute mantra, with many Boston fans claiming it to be the “Moneyball,” of 2010.

Except as I contended, that’s all well and good, except, umm, you still need to score runs to win in the regular season. You need to score when Jon Lester or John Lackey has a bad outing, or when the bullpen ruins a starters good one. You can’t expect to win every game 3-1 or 2-0 or 2-1, that just isn’t reality over a 162-game season.

And although the Red Sox are scoring a reasonable amount of runs (5.21 per game), there never seems to be a rhyme or reason, or any consistency to when they’ll come. The Sox might get nine today, but then score four runs total the next three nights.

They’ll follow it up with 12 against some hopeless schmuck from Baltimore, and then go cold the following night. Watching the Red Sox, their offense really is a case of there being, “lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

It was with that semi-pessimistic (but ultimately realistic) outlook, that I headed to Fenway Park on Sunday night for the Sox-Yankees tilt. Truthfully, I was expecting the worst. And when I say the worst, I’m not just talking about the play on the field, but everything off of it too.

I live an hour and change from Boston, but in this technological world we live, get as much information as anyone actually living on Yawkey Way. The early returns weren’t so good.

From what my friends were telling me, things weren’t pretty in Boston when it came to the Red Sox.

I heard that fans and the media were had turned on certain under-performing players (cough…David Ortiz…cough), and were relentless in their hounding of manager Terry Francona; that some people were already giving up; that tickets to Sox games—arguably the toughest non-NFL ticket in professional sports—were flooding the market, the way you might find a bunch of available copies of Catcher in the Rye at a used book store.

It was with this trepidation that I headed up to Boston Sunday night. For the first time in recent memory, I wasn’t sure to expect.

After all that anxiousness, I’ve got to be honest. I was surprised by what I found. In a good way…

(To read the REMAINDER of Aaron’s article, including his take on Sunday’s big victory over the Yankees, please click here , or visit him at www.aarontorres-sports.com .

Also, for his thoughts on all things sports, make sure to follow him on Twitter @Aaron_Torres )

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As the old saying goes: “You can’t win the World Series in April, but you sure can lose it.”

Sadly, this looks to be the case for the struggling Red Sox—possessors of one of the MLB’s highest payrolls. Their struggles are due in large part to a fragile relationship between a developmentally-minded front office and a rabid fan base desperate for big-name players and marquee deals.

When done correctly, a developmentally-oriented system can lead to great results—enter the Red Sox of 2007, whose mixture of young talent and big-name stars led to World Series glory.

Unfortunately for the Sox, World Series glory will have to wait another year.

The long term deals given to Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, and Josh Beckett have left the BoSox with four players for whom the only thing higher than their profile is their salary. All four of these marquee athletes look like shadows of their former selves and are a burden on the balance sheet, as well as the field.

The fact is that Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein dreams of running an organization similar to the Rays or Athletics of the Moneyball Era. Epstein stresses prospect development and often shies away from large free agent signings.

On the other hand, the fan base in Boston pressures the team to sign big-name players in order to justify skyrocketing ticket prices.

Believe it or not, Red Sox fans want the organization to spend like the Yankees while maintaining an identity of development like the Rays.

A brief look at recent history lends itself to the revelations that A-Rod almost signed with Boston, that the Yankees investment in C.C. Sabathia could have been matched by the Red Sox offer to Roy Halladay if a trade had been worked out, and that the Red Sox were angered not by the size of Mark Teixeira’s contract, but by the fact that they were never given the opportunity to match it.

The Red Sox’ and Yankees’ payrolls are so similar because the organizations are similar. Boston is not the Mecca of homegrown talent, as some fans would have you believe, but is as much of a haven for overpriced free agents as New York (see: John Lackey and Victor Martinez).

The problem is that while the Yankees will shamelessly spend a quarter of a billion dollars in one offseason to provide the tangible benefit that is a World Series—the Red Sox simply will not. They will still hang on to their developmental mentality and thus avoid the big money, but sure-thing free agent opportunities.

When was the last time the Red Sox signed a “sure-thing” free agent?

For the Yankees, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A-Rod immediately come to mind. The Red Sox, on the other hand, leave us pondering the day when Matsuzaka and Drew live up to the hype.

Ironically enough, Boston has made recent major acquisitions through blockbuster deadline deals (see: Bay and Martinez) which have shipped out some of Epstein’s most beloved prospects.

As past seasons have shown, this formula is no longer working. Maybe the pre-Epstein era duo of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez made the young executive’s team overachieve its way to two World Series titles.

However, even the Josh Beckett deal—which many people credit for the 2007 World Series victory—involved losing Hanley Ramirez, one of baseball’s emerging superstars.

Again, big-name players at the price of a diminishing farm system.

Meanwhile, the real measure of success in Boston has changed from playoff appearances to World Series victories.

While the outlook may be bleak in baseball’s most top-heavy division, the Red Sox have an undeniably talented nucleus of young players.

Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez are here to stay—and with the impressive play of the Rays and Yanks, the BoSox will need all the help they can buy…or develop that is.

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It’s no secret that fans across the nation cringe at the sight of a poor performance from their team on a given night.

Often times, fans will use the excuse that it is still early in the year and these players and teams will turn it around.

The 2010 MLB season has offered up its fair share of great moments and performances from some of the league’s best; but as we head into mid-May, there is still some doubt amongst even the most faithful of fans that the following players will turn it around.

Some players aren’t living up to their massive contracts, others may have finally hit rock bottom, and some are playing under the guise that the season hasn’t even started yet.

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Red Sox ace Josh Beckett got rocked—again—Friday night, allowing nine earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Yankees, marking the third time he’s given up seven earned runs or more in a start this season.

Through seven starts (41 innings) in 2010, Beckett is 1-1 with a despicable 7.46 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.

Two of his three quality starts have come against Kansas City and Baltimore, both of which are in the bottom four in runs scored among A.L. teams. Beckett’s beat downs have come against the Rangers, Blue Jays and Yankees (twice), which on the surface might explain some of his troubles. Still, the former World Series MVP shouldn’t be this bad.

So what should Beckett owners do?

This Insider says hold him—for now.

Here’s why

Beckett’s unusually high .365 BABIP explains his .311 BAA and sky-high WHIP. His current strand rate (56.9 percent) is a ridiculously low number, one that is sure to approach Beckett’s career mark of 71.5 percent by season’s end.

His 4.47 FIP is three full runs lower than his current ERA, which also points to tough luck.

The factors Beckett can control, however, aren’t necessarily encouraging. His strikeout rate (7.46) is down from his career mark of 8.51. Likewise, his usually stellar walk rate (2.76 career) currently sits at 3.51.

Beckett’s average fastball velocity is down to 93.5 MPH this year from 94.7, 94.6, 94.3 and 94.1 MPH in season’s past. This gradual decline isn’t as concerning. In fact, it’s to be expected.

What’s most discouraging is Beckett’s curveball use (or lack there of) so far this season.

Since joining the Red Sox in 2006, Beckett’s yacker has accounted for nearly one-fourth of the pitches he’s thrown. In 2010, however, he’s tossing his curveball just 18.7 percent of the time.

This is worth keeping an eye on.

Beckett’s struggles thus far have relegated him to spot-start status in fantasy leagues, as he can’t be trusted with starts against the Blue Jays, Yankees and Phillies on the horizon.

Despite this, keep in mind fantasy baseball is all about value. Dumping a pitcher of Beckett’s caliber at this point would not be wise. In fact, Beckett, who owns a career 2.96 ERA during the month of September (a.k.a the fantasy playoffs) is a decent buy-low option for the audacious fantasy manager.

Beckett, who turns 30 on Saturday, should become more valuable as his luck begins to even out, though his upcoming matchups will make this an especially tough task. If you can afford to stash him away until he turns the corner, do so. Just don’t rely on him anytime soon.

FBI Forecast: 190 IP, 13 W, 170 K (8.05 K/9) 4.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

ORIGNIAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Since the conclusion of the 2009 season, I’ve frequently been seen plastering the Bleacher Report’s proverbial walls with my 2010 MLB predictions, some reasonable and some outlandish.

Well, most are outlandish.

Here’s a review of my predictions, an update on the reality set against my fantasy, and a grade of my performance.

Please feel free to tell me I’m full of it when you see an outrageous prediction with early success, but don’t forget to pick me up when you see me suffering an early reality check.

All in all, I judge myself to be 7-5-4. Hey, that’s a winning record.

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Now THIS was embarrassing!

The Red Sox may have been humbled by their four-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays two weeks ago, but they were downright humiliated by their performance in Baltimore this weekend.

It was the first time the Orioles swept the Red Sox in a three-game series at home since September, 1974. Heck, it was the first time since 1998 that the Orioles swept a series of three games or more against anyone (and THAT was a four-game sweep against the Red Sox)!

For the Baltimore Orioles, these are the best of times. They have managed to compile a three-game winning streak after going 2-16 to start the year. Afterwards, O’s Manager Dave Trembley said: “It’s just great for the team, individuals who have gone through a lot of pain and mimicry for 30 days. I believe we’ve gotten through the worst and the good days are ahead.”

For the Boston Red Sox, these are the worst of times. The Orioles now have seven wins this season, and four of them have come against the Red Sox (in just 6 games). The team seems to be what the NY Yankees were for many years — a collection of highly-talented players unable to play as a team. In the media room after the ballgame, Terry Francona said: “We’re going to have to regroup in a hurry and figure it out.”

The master of under-statement!

Both starting pitchers were highly effective in today’s contest — a good sign for the Red Sox and Josh Beckett (who has been brutal recently). He allowed two runs on six hits over seven innings, walking no one and striking out six. Orioles righty Kevin Millwood remained winless in his first season with Baltimore despite giving up just two runs on five hits in eight innings… he has a 3.15 ERA over six starts but has repeatedly been hurt by poor run support.

The Orioles scored two runs in the fourth inning. They loaded the bases with no one out. Beckett then struck out DH Luke Scott before LF Nolan Reimold drove in the first run with fielder’s choice. 1B Rhyne Hughes delivered a two-out RBI double to give the home team a 2-zip lead.

C Jason Varitek homered in the fifth to get the Red Sox on the scoreboard, and J.D. Drew led off the seventh with his third home run of the series to get things knotted at two-apiece.

Things remained even until 2B Ty Wigginton doubled home the game-winning run in the 10th following a throwing error by Jonathan Papelbon on an attempted pick-off play. RF Nick Markakis led off with a walk and went to second on the errant throw. He later then scored without a throw when Wigginton doubled to left-center field.

Matt Albers (2-3) pitched a scoreless 10th inning for his second win in the series.

For the second time this season, a decision by third base coach Tim Bogar may well have cost the Red Sox a game—this one will be referred to as Bogar’s Boner, Part II. The Red Sox had baserunners at first and second base with two outs in the eighth inning when Dustin Pedroia ripped a line-drive single into left field. Bogar sent the slow-footed Varitek home in spite of the fact he had barely touched third base when the ball was fielded in relatively short left field by Reimold. “Tek was thrown out easily.

NESN broadcasters Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy then insulted the intelligence of their viewers when they declared Bogar “had to send” Varitek home under the circumstances. Talk about pandering to the club! The mere suggestion that Bogar ‘had to’ send Varitek home under the circumstances—with Reimold in short left field was preposterous! I expected more from The Rem-Dawg, a LOT more!

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Kevin Youkilis was a late scratch with a strained left groin. Mike Lowell started at 1B in his place.

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Seven of Jason Varitek’s 11 hits this season have been for extra bases.

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