Kuzul

If the Boston Red Sox are still looking to make a big splash and add star power to their roster, there is one player still left on the free-agent market who fits that description.

Josh Hamilton has been an All-Star level commodity in every season he has played for the Texas Rangers.

Hamilton is seemingly waiting for one team to make him a big, multi-year offer. His numbers speak for themselves. His 2012 slash line of .285/.354/.577 would fit very nicely into the middle of the Sox order for the next three or four seasons, as would the 43 home runs that he hit last season.

With the news from Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that the Seattle Mariners are making a strongest push for free-agent outfielder Hamilton, the question is where are the Boston Red Sox when it comes to signing Hamilton.

That tweet from Rosenthal is extremely interesting for a couple of reasons.

One, if Seattle turns out to be the main competition for the Red Sox in signing Hamilton, the difference in markets and home stadiums should give the Sox a clear advantage.

The other part of that tweet that is very interesting is that Seattle is talking to Hamilton about a contract in the three-year range with an average annual value of $20 to $25 million.

If that is the contract being discussed with Hamilton, the Sox need to be all over that.

The Red Sox are interested in Hamilton, as this tweet from WBZ’s Dan Roche mentions a meeting between Ben Cherington, John Farrell and Hamilton at the winter meetings.

Hamilton would be viewed as a risky signing at $25 million per year, given his history of injuries and drug abuse. But, given that the Sox have just committed $26 million per season combined between Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino over the next three years, that seems like a pretty fair deal in comparison.

The simple question: Would you rather have Josh Hamilton over the next three seasons or Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino? I think the answer to that is pretty easy given Hamilton’s potential impact on the Sox.

The contracts for Napoli and especially Victorino will look really bad if it causes the Sox to be unable to opportunity to sign Hamilton. The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported Napoli‘s deal in this tweet and WEEI’s Alex Speier was the first to tweet about Victorino‘s deal.

If it has become a soft market for the 31-year-old slugging outfielder, the Red Sox need to take advantage of the situation and use some of their newfound payroll flexibility that they gained from the blockbuster trade with the Dodgers last summer.

The Rangers might have become distracted with the Zack Greinke and Justin Upton discussions and are holding up the market according to this tweet from Bob Nightengale at USA Today.

The Sox need to pounce before other teams start to get involved, like the Yankees, who have started looking into Hamilton according to another tweet from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

Cherington and Sox need to do something to excite the fan base again. If it means signing a star player to a potential short-term deal that could pay huge dividends, even better.

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According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, no team has been more aggressive in pursuing free-agent outfielder Josh Hamilton than the Texas Rangers. 

After bearing the loss of slugger Mike Napoli (per John Heyman of CBS Sports), who recently signed with the Boston Red Sox, re-signing baseball’s hottest free-agent commodity absolutely must be the Rangers’ top priority this winter. 

Fortunately, that looks to be the case. 

Of course, it’s not going to be easy. Hamilton is reportedly searching for big money (what a shocker). USA Today’s John Perrotto reported in early November that he’s looking for something like seven years and $175 million.

For a 31-year-old with durability concerns and a checkered past, any contract in the ballpark of what Hamilton is looking for seems highly unlikely. Texas would be silly to offer him that type of money.

But here’s the thing: It’s highly unlikely anyone else will, either. 

Hamilton is this year’s big free-agent fish (as far as position players are concerned), and he knows there will be plenty of bait cast his way. There are a handful of teams expressing interest, and he even met with the Seattle Mariners (per Rosenthal and John Paul Morosi) at the MLB winter meetings. 

In 2012, he hit 43 long balls while knocking in 128 runs and scoring 103. He should be coveted. 

Even though seven years at $25 million a year seems outrageous (because it is), the Rangers would be wise to try and find a suitable alternative to make sure Hamilton stays put. 

Not only because Ron Washington simply cannot afford to fill out a lineup card in 2013 that doesn’t include Hamilton’s name, but letting him slip away to a potential AL Pennant contender would be a double whammy. 

Will the Mariners instantly become a threat to win the AL West if they bring Hamilton aboard? Doubtful. But with Oakland proving it can hang by winning the division in 2012, and the Angels remaining dangerous, the last thing Texas needs is Seattle breathing down its neck. 

Of course, there is no telling whether or not he would play in Seattle anyway, but the Rangers clearly don’t care to find out. 

Watching him head to Boston or New York (Yankees) would be just as painful. We have to believe both the Red Sox and Yanks are legitimate contenders—they always are. 

It is possible that Texas would prefer to save its money to send Zack Grienke’s way. The 29-year-old heads the list of free-agent starting pitchers and is certainly a very intriguing option. He’s a former CY Young winner with a career ERA of 3.77. 

But he’s younger than Hamilton and comes without baggage. Which means Greinke is the more likely of the two to rake in the big bucks. 

And that means the Rangers should be right there waiting if (and most likely when) Hamilton is forced to lower his unreasonable asking price.  

Does Texas need a solid addition to its pitching staff? Absolutely. But if Nolan Ryan is going to dole out $25 million a year (or anything close to it) to any one player, it should be Hamilton. 

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported in early November that the Rangers won’t offer Hamilton a contract for anything longer than three years, which will likely result in the two parting ways. 

As the winter meetings carry on, Texas may be reconsidering. 

I don’t believe an team will give Hamilton seven years, but four or five? Probably so. 

Can Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz supply the power to drive in enough runs without Hamilton in the picture? Cruz is 32 and before this year hadn’t played more than 128 games in any one year. Beltre has proven to be a wonderful addition but is heading into his 16th MLB season. 

Remember, when Josh Hamilton is locked in, he’s the best hitter in baseball. Nobody can match his production when he’s feeling it at the plate. 

Hamilton has gone completely cold at times, too, which is probably the only reason he isn’t touted as the best in the game. But the guy finished behind only reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera in HR and RBI in 2012—in either league. He’s hit more than 30 HR and 100 RBI in three of his past five seasons. 

The hot streaks more than compensate for the cold ones. 

If the Rangers intend on making a third World Series appearance in four years, they must find a way to re-sign Josh Hamilton. 

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The teams interested in signing free-agent outfielder Josh Hamilton are establishing themselves as the offseason hot stove begins warming up. 

Hamilton could return to the Texas Rangers. But if not, the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are all names having been linked to the best available hitter on the open market.

But there are a few other clubs that could also join the bidding for Hamilton, especially if the market pushes down his reported desire for a seven-year, $175 million contract. These are teams that are either presumed to consider Hamilton unaffordable or would become even better with him in their lineup. 

Here are five teams that are dark horses in the race to sign the 31-year-old outfielder for next season. And for whichever team gets Hamilton, the competitive balance in either the American League or National League could tip in their favor. 

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Josh Hamilton has drawn widespread interest from across Major League Baseball, and he will have his pick of which talented lineup he will bolster next season.

The 31-year-old slugger has had some major bumps on his road to stardom, but he has been an All-Star in the last five seasons and won the AL MVP in 2010. Individual awards litter his résumé, but he has fallen just short of a World Series championship twice in his career. 

With so many options in free agency, Hamilton has the opportunity to find a franchise that will pay him handsomely, give him an excellent chance to continue his individual success and, most importantly, allow him to play for a team that will compete for a title.

CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that the Seattle Marines, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have all shown interest in Hamilton, while WEEI’s Rob Bradford added the Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox to that list.

Here are the teams that would be the best fits for Hamilton.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies relinquished their standing as a National League powerhouse this season and ended up trading Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence at the deadline, but there is still a significant amount of talent on the team.

With Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels leading the rotation, the team’s pitching is still a serious force.

At the plate, Philadelphia needs help after ranking 19th in runs scored this past season. Putting Hamilton in the order next to Ryan Howard would certainly give the team an offensive boost. 

It was an off year for the Phillies, but this team is capable of bouncing back and returning to championship form. Hamilton just may be the spark they need to do so.

2. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles were one of this season’s biggest surprises as they finished 93-69 and made the playoffs for the first time since 1997.

Buck Showalter has this team on the rise, and Hamilton has the ability to help continue that trend.

While Hamilton would likely have to move away from his traditional position in center field due to Adam Jones’ firm hold on the starting spot there, Baltimore certainly has room for him in the outfield. 

The offensive production from Jones and Hamilton would push this team to the next level, and the Orioles would be a legitimate contender with the superstar free-agent slugger.

1. Atlanta Braves

While the Phillies and the Orioles do provide decent fits for Hamilton, the Braves should be his top option. 

After winning the NL East in 11 consecutive seasons starting in 1995, Atlanta has not captured a division title since 2005. The franchise is looking to once again return to dominance and win its first World Series since 1995.

Hamilton would add a significant amount of offense to a mediocre lineup, giving the Braves quality hitting to complement their excellent pitching. The team finished fifth in team ERA in 2012 while checking in at 17th in runs scored. 

There is no better fit for Hamilton than Atlanta, as they are the suitor that will give him the best chance to win a title. 

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As one of the top names on the free-agent market this offseason, Josh Hamilton is garnering attention from plenty of suitors looking to insert his powerful bat into their lineup.

One organization that looks to have the tools necessary to pull of such a move is the Boston Red Sox, and according to Jon Heyman of CBSsports.com, they do appear to be players in the Hamilton sweepstakes.

While such a move would make sense in many ways, the Red Sox have been quick to point out that the whirlwind of speculation about the connection might be a bit overblown and that nothing is in any way imminent (h/t Rob Bradford, WEEI.com).

Should Hamilton find his way, he’ll be set up for big things as he moves into the next phase of his career, and Fenway would provide the perfect atmosphere for him to further his chances of creating a lasting legacy.

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You get the feeling that the Boston Red Sox aren’t dying to sign slugging outfielder Josh Hamilton to a massive free-agent contract.

Nonetheless, reports that have been trickling out ever since the offseason began would have everyone believe otherwise. The Red Sox may look quiet on the outside, but they might be worshiping an idol of Hamilton on the inside.

On Thursday, for example, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com cautioned to “keep an eye on the Red Sox” in the chase for Hamilton.

“Boston wants to do something big and it wouldn’t shock me if they became players for Josh Hamilton,” said a rival GM.

Coincidentally, Sox GM Ben Cherington did an interview on Thursday with the Dennis and Callahan Show on WEEI, and he acknowledged that they have met with Hamilton’s agent. However, he classified the situation as the Sox just doing their “due diligence,” and he didn’t have much to say in regard to how Hamilton would fit into the club’s plans.

A little later on, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported that he had heard from a source that Boston’s supposed interest in Hamilton is being “overblown.” 

So yeah, Thursday was a busy day in the Hamilton-to-Boston theater of the offseason. Despite the mixed messages, it would seem that the link between the two sides is stronger now than ever before.

It may not be strong enough for anyone to start believing that Hamilton and the Sox are destined for one another, mind you, but it’s certainly strong enough for the idea to be taken seriously.

Thus, the big question: What if? What would life be like if Hamilton and the Red Sox actually hook up?

It wouldn’t be very good. The union would bring back memories of Carl Crawford‘s union with the Red Sox back in December 2010. His contract, of course, ended up becoming a gigantic liability. If the Sox were to sign Hamilton, all signs would point toward his contract becoming an even bigger liability.

Here’s why.

Now’s Not the Time to Strike

These days, Carl Crawford is viewed as a broken-down player who may never recapture his old form as one of baseball’s best players.

But at the time the Red Sox signed him in December 2010, you’ll recall that there was not a single shred of doubt that Crawford indeed was one of baseball’s best players. 

Crawford’s 2010 season, in particular, was one for the books. He went into free agency fresh off a year that saw him hit .307 with a career-high .851 OPS and a career-high 19 home runs. He also stole 47 bases, scored 110 runs and racked up 90 RBI. He was also as good as ever in left field and was finally rewarded with a Gold Glove.

Per FanGraphs, only two players posted higher WARs than Crawford in 2010: Eventual AL MVP Josh Hamilton and Evan Longoria.

It’s not like Crawford was heading into free agency as a one-year wonder. Between 2006 and 2010, he hit .303 with an .812 OPS and averaged 48 steals and 14 home runs per season. He hit a peak in 2010, but he was consistently productive in the years leading up to 2010.

Somebody was going to give Crawford a massive contract. It happened to be the Red Sox, and the reaction was largely positive. Then-GM Theo Epstein looked like the smartest man in the room at the winter meetings.

“[Bleeping] Theo,” said one GM, via Sports Illustrated. “What a brilliant move.”

The reviews wouldn’t be so great if the Red Sox were to sign Hamilton, and for good reason. Whereas it was very clear in 2010 that Crawford was great and getting better, it’s very clear now that Hamilton is a flawed player who may be getting worse.

Hamilton looked like he was going to have a monster season in 2012 when he got off to a torrid start in April and early May, but it didn’t pan out. He had his OPS as high as 1.336 on May 11, but he finished the year by hitting .252 with an .822 OPS over his final 118 games.

Hamilton wants to be paid like an elite slugger, but for the bulk of the 2012 season, he was really no better than Alex Gordon (.822 OPS) or Garrett Jones (.832 OPS). 

It’s not like we’re talking about a case of serious bad luck, either. Hamilton did well enough when he put the ball in play over his final 118 games in 2012, compiling a decent enough BABIP of .299, but his problem all season long was actually putting the ball in play.

Hamilton’s plate discipline was atrocious in 2012. He saw only 3.69 pitches per plate appearance, and he set a new career high with a 25.5 strikeout percentage. According to FanGraphs, he had a new career-high swinging-strike percentage of 20 percent, and he chased 45.4 percent of the pitches he saw outside of the strike zone.

Both of those figures, by the way, were highs among all qualified hitters. In terms of discipline, Hamilton was right there with Delmon Young, and that’s not a place any hitter should want to be.

If somebody is going to pay Hamilton what he wants, it will be because of his monstrous 2010 season and his excellent showing in the first half of the 2012 season. The justification will be that when he’s right, he’s unstoppable.

Maybe so, but committing a huge pile of cash to Hamilton based on flashes is not a good idea. A team should only want to pay him based on his body of work, which is nowhere near as strong as his various flashes.

Elite sluggers—i.e., guys like Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun—should be capable of posting OPS’ close to 1.000 on an annual basis. Hamilton has had one year in which he posted an OPS over 1.000, but beyond that one year, his OPS has gone as low as .741 and only as high as .930.

And the more you look at it, the clearer it is that Hamilton’s 2010 season is a pretty huge outlier. He posted a career-low 16.6 strikeout percentage and finished with an absurdly high .390 BABIP. His K rate has stuck much closer to 20 every other year, and his BABIP has been right around .320 in three of the last four years.

When it comes to long-term contracts, the most important thing is predictability. In the case of Hamilton, the question is basically how many more monstrous 2010 seasons he may have in him, as that’s the kind of production it would take to justify the $25 million-per-year contract he’s going to command.

And the answer is zero. Hamilton was very, very good for one year, but every other year, his flaws have effectively held his potential down. 

When the Red Sox signed Crawford, there was little warning that he would fall so far so fast, much less come down with serious injuries.

If they were to sign Hamilton, the situation would be decidedly different. The Sox would be signing a very good slugger, but they’d also be signing a slugger with a ton of red flags on the field who would have virtually no chance of living up to his annual salary.

And this is to say nothing of the other red flags that come with Hamilton.

The Health Concerns Are Clear and Present

When the Red Sox signed Crawford in 2010, they were signing a player who was both talented and durable. Between 2003 and 2010, he had played in at least 150 games six times. In the other two years, he played in 143 games and 109 games.

The low point was his 2008 season, in which Crawford was limited, primarily due to a freak finger injury that he suffered on a checked swing. He bounced right back from that and played in 156 games in 2009 and 154 games in 2010.

Durability, meanwhile, is not something that Hamilton is known for. 

Hamilton has played in 647 games over the last five seasons, which amounts to an average of 129 games per season. He’s played in over 150 games in a season exactly once in his career, and he’s coming off a year in which he was limited to 148 games despite not suffering any serious injuries.

It was more a season of nagging injuries for Hamilton. Subscribers can look up his 2012 injury history on Baseball Prospectus and see a list of ailments reminiscent of that one kid in elementary school who was always going to the nurse’s office. A contusion one day, tightness the next, a migraine the day after that and four incidents listed as simply “General Medical” ailments.

To be fair, some of this stuff was on the more serious end of the spectrum, such as the time Hamilton had to be hospitalized in June with an intestinal problem. Other stuff was just plain weird, such as the vision problems he experienced in September that were supposedly caused by too many energy drinks.

I’m not going to call Hamilton out for lacking toughness. Baseball is a grind, and if you can’t play, you can’t play. In his case, health problems come with the territory.

But while these things shouldn’t necessarily outrage anybody, they would definitely concern me if I’m John Henry. The constant state of duress Hamilton’s body was under in 2012 and in years past tells Henry that he’s only going to be good for so many games per season, and that’s only going to make it harder for him to provide good value for his contract.

Plus, there’s always the fear of a more serious injury occurring at a moment’s notice. Such was the case in 2010 when a rib-cage injury cost him the final month of the season. In 2011, a broken arm cost him 35 games. In 2009, he lost a significant amount of time to a sports hernia and a back injury.

Bear in mind that Hamilton’s body wasn’t exactly a temple for a few years when he was going through serious problems with drug and alcohol addiction. I bring it up not to be mean-spirited, but to point out an unfortunate reality of his situation. When his body should have been in its prime, it was being weakened.

Also bear in mind that he’s not getting any younger. Hamilton is the same age as Crawford now, and he’ll turn 32 in early May. That’s right about at that age when some hitters start to lose it both physically and in terms of their general skills.

When Crawford came aboard, there was little to suggest that his performance would be so awful. There was also little to suggest that he was bound to get hurt and miss 32 games in his first season.

Once again, the story would be completely different if the Sox were to sign Hamilton. The signs would be there not to expect an elite performance, and the signs would also be there not to expect durability. They’d be walking right into an ultimate “I told you so” situation.

There’s a chance things would get just as bad off the field.

Would the Pressure of Playing in Boston Get to Him?

Crawford certainly had the skills the Sox were looking for when they signed him in 2010, and he came with the right kind of character for the city of Boston as well.

We know this because the Sox came to that conclusion after doing exhaustive research on Crawford. 

Last February, Crawford found out that the Red Sox had monitored him quite extensively off the field for months before they decided to sign him. Epstein hinted that they basically privately investigated him, which prompted Crawford to say he was “creeped out a little bit.”

Despite that, all signs pointed toward Crawford having the psychological fortitude to handle playing in a market as intense as Boston after nearly a decade in one of the calmest markets in baseball.

We now know otherwise. 

Crawford kept quiet in 2011, but he eventually opened up and ripped departed Sox manager Terry Francona for the way he handled him. Just a couple weeks ago, Crawford told ESPNLosAngeles.com that the pressure to perform in Boston led him to try and play through injuries he really shouldn’t have been trying to play through.

Getting out of Boston, he said, was a relief:

It’s no secret it was a tough year in Boston. It’s one of those things I wouldn’t want any player to go through, so for me to be able to get out of that situation is definitely a relief. I won’t have to go through all the stress and stuff every day that they were putting us through.

Crawford’s narrative is more proof that the long-held notion that some guys just aren’t cut out for Boston is true. It’s a tough place to play, and it’s eaten many good players (and just plain good guys) alive over the years.

And let’s face it: It’s abundantly clear that Boston isn’t the best fit for Hamilton’s personality. He appears to be exactly the kind of guy who would be eaten alive in Boston.

By all accounts, Hamilton is a great guy most days. But Rangers reliever Mike Adams hinted pretty strongly that Hamilton’s temperament is not consistent from one day to the next.

Here’s what Adams said on “Inside Pitch” on Sirius XM’s MLB Network Radio, via ESPNDallas.com:

Josh is a special talent and sometimes you have to let Josh figure it out himself. He’s a different guy sometimes. Every day you hope that Josh comes to the ballpark, shows up and plays like Josh Hamilton.

Sometimes he shows up and you don’t know which Josh is going to show up at the ballpark. It’s nothing to be negative about toward Josh; that’s just the way it is. That’s what you get with Josh.

There’s certainly a bit of gray area here, as it could be that Adams was merely implying that Hamilton isn’t always the same guy on the field. If so, he just said something everyone already knew.

But the notion that Hamilton isn’t always the same guy off the field has some legs. For example, there was that time he threw third-base coach Dave Anderson under the bus for sending him home on a shallow pop fly in 2011, which ultimately resulted in the broken arm that cost Hamilton so much time.

“It was just a stupid play,” Hamilton said, via The Dallas Morning News. “I definitely shouldn’t have done it. They had a good angle to cut me off where I was going. It was a little too aggressive. The whole time I was watching the play and I was listening. I was like, ‘Dude, I don’t want to go. Something is going to happen.’ But I listened to my coach and I went.”

There was also the exit interview that Hamilton did when the Rangers’ season ended this year. According to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com, he criticized the fans for booing him as he went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and a GIDP in the Rangers’ loss to the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Wild Card Game, and he also chose to plead the fifth when he was asked about whether his eyes were still bothering him.

Incidents like these became headline news simply because they involved Josh Hamilton. If these things were to happen in Boston, they’d be headline news for days, maybe even weeks. They’d be blown way out of proportion, as many baseball storylines in Boston invariably are.

That’s just how it is in Boston. The writers can be mean, and there are a lot more beat writers following the Red Sox around than there are with most teams.

Worse, they occasionally cater to a fanbase that isn’t known for being forgiving. It’s just another thing that makes the pressure of playing in Boston so much greater than that of most other cities not named New York.

Crawford couldn’t hack the pressure of playing in Boston, and this was after the Red Sox did enough creepy investigating to come to a sound conclusion that he could deal with it. It’s impossible to imagine how a similar investigation of Hamilton would yield the same conclusion, so this is yet another area in which the Red Sox would be rushing headlong into a potentially disastrous situation.

And unlike with Crawford, the Red Sox would not be able to wash their hands of said disastrous situation.

There’d Be No Moving Him

The Red Sox should thank their lucky stars for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

If it weren’t for them, the Sox would currently be looking at paying Crawford $102.5 million over the next five seasons. That’s a lot of money to pay for a guy who had a WAR of 0.6 in the two seasons he played in Boston, according to FanGraphs.

If the Dodgers hadn’t come along, the Red Sox would have been stuck with Crawford, not to mention Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez. If the status quo held, he would have given them very little production while taking up roughly 10 percent of their total payroll.

If the Red Sox were to sign Hamilton to a contract worth $25 million annually, he’d be taking up far more than that. And if they were to one day come to a conclusion that he needed to go, they’d be out of luck.

There are two reasons why the Red Sox were able to unload Crawford. The first reason is the most obvious one, and it’s that the Dodgers just don’t give a you-know-what. They have money and want to make it rain, so taking on what was left of Crawford’s contract came with few concerns for them.

The other reason the Sox were able to move Crawford is because of where he is at this point in his career. He has two lost years in his rear-view mirror, but he’s still young enough to have a few prime years left. And since he was a never a good fit in Boston, it was worth gambling on him being a fit in Los Angeles.

It was a good gamble by the Dodgers, as they have a spot at the top of their lineup for Crawford and a ballpark that suits his game much better than Fenway Park. The NL West in general is loaded with ballparks that Crawford should find to his liking.

Once again, it would be a totally different story with Hamilton. If the Sox were to try to get rid of him two years down the line, they’d be doing so because Hamilton is injured, underperforming or both.

And he won’t be 31, as Crawford was when the Red Sox traded him. Hamilton would be 33 or 34.

That’s not a good age for a slugger, and the Red Sox certainly wouldn’t be able to distract teams from looking at Hamilton’s track record both before and after going to Boston. In its entirety, Hamilton’s narrative would send teams a very clear message: “Stay away.”

That’s a message that the Red Sox can heed right here and now. Signing Hamilton is undoubtedly an intriguing idea, but it’s not a good idea.

All they need to do is think back to Carl Crawford’s contract and how it panned out…and then imagine a situation 10 times worse.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Salary figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Josh Hamilton needs a reality check. While it’s fun to dream, he’s got his head way up in the clouds if he truly thinks that this is going to happen:

Report: Josh Hamilton wants 7 years, $175 million on.si.com/YElLDV

— SI MLB (@si_mlb) November 4, 2012

Upon that news (according to Sports Illustrated), there was a collective gasp heard from front offices around baseball, followed by one of two reactions.

Either the Dr. Evil:

Or the Nelson Muntz:

That’s not to say that Hamilton isn’t going to get paid this winter, because he is—and handsomely.

Josh Hamilton declines $13.3 million qualifying offer; #Rangers will receive compensation-round Draft pick should he sign with another team.

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) November 9, 2012

The fact that he declined the qualifying offer comes as no surprise, and it was the right move for Hamilton. He’s going to land a contract that pays him between $20 and $25 million per season, perhaps even from the Rangers.

But it’s not going to be for seven years. Or five years. Hamilton, 31, simply has too many questions surrounding him for a team to make a long-term commitment to him.

Creating problems aside from the fact that he has missed time with injuries over the past few years is his substance-abuse history. While worrying about a potential relapse is always going to be a concern, that’s not the primary reason teams are hesitant to commit to him for five, six or seven years.

It’s because nobody knows exactly how much damage he did to his body when he was abusing alcohol and drugs. Nobody knows how long he can continue to perform at a high level until the years of abuse catch up to him and he becomes a shell of the player he is today.

Sooner or later, it’s going to happen. You don’t walk away from years of abuse without any long-term issues.

ESPN’s Andrew Brandt puts it best:

Rangers only willing to offer Josh Hamilton 3 yrs. Other teams have to wonder “Ok, they know him best and don’t want him long-term.”

— Andrew Brandt (@adbrandt) November 9, 2012

If the team who knows him best—the team who has the support system already in place—isn’t willing to give him a long-term deal, why would anyone else?

There’s probably a GM out there who is on the hot seat and figures that he has nothing to lose by giving Hamilton a five-year deal. After all, Hamilton can change a team’s fortunes by himself.

But if you were an owner, would you give Josh Hamilton a huge contract for four years or more?

It’s far too risky an investment.

The bottom line is this: Josh Hamilton is going to play baseball in 2013 and beyond, and it very well might be for the Rangers. He’s a prolific hitter, a mediocre defender, has an injury history and comes with significant baggage.

If he holds out for such a lucrative deal, Hamilton could be passed over for other outfielders. Nick Swisher and B.J. Upton aren’t as talented as Hamilton, but they will cost a lot less.

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It’s been coming for a while, but the Texas Rangers appear to be getting used to life without Josh Hamilton, as they’ve turned their attention to the other superstar available on the 2013 free-agent market.

That would be former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, who is easily the most highly regarded pitcher available this winter. But whether Texas has a realistic shot at landing the soon-to-be former Angels ace remains to be seen.

Despite reports (via ESPN.com) claiming the Rangers had offered Hamilton a three-year max-deal, it now appears that that contract proposal was never tabled. 

That’s because Jon Heyman, CBS Sports’ Baseball Insider, says that the Rangers have focused their efforts on reeling in Greinke, regardless of whether that costs the team the All-Star outfielder:

The Rangers have joined the fray for Zack Greinke in another sign that superstar outfielder Josh Hamilton’s days in Texas are numbered.

The incumbent Angels are seen as the favorite for Greinke, but as one GM said here, they are going to get geographic (Dodgers) and divisional (Rangers) competition. The Nationals are one of many others who may make a play for Greinke, and as Angels GM Jerry Dipoto said, ‘I assume all 29 teams have some level of interest.’

Texas has made no offer to Hamilton (no, the Rangers didn’t make a three-year offer, as rumored), and while they’ve held open the possibility of bringing him back, they are concentrating their efforts on Greinke while allowing Hamilton to look elsewhere.

The Rangers’ chances to keep Hamilton may now depend on them 1) losing out on Greinke, and 2) Hamilton finding nothing great elsewhere.

At this point, it seems extremely unlikely that Hamilton will return to Texas, especially given his former team’s apparent indifference, or at least absence of urgency, in getting his signature on a long-term deal.

Hamilton will receive more lucrative offers than what the Rangers appear willing to give him, and unless something drastic happens soon, he’ll be entertaining contract proposals from a variety of suitors.

In addition, with Texas actively pursuing Greinke, Hamilton must realize that he’s no longer the Rangers’ top priority. But it seemed that he’d read the writing on the wall by the end of the 2012 season.

He’s going to get a six-figure contract offer from someone, but it won’t be Texas, and unless they’re low-balling Greinke as well, the Rangers are almost certainly tabling relatively more desirable offers to the All-Star starting pitcher.

Regardless of whether the Rangers do ultimately acquire Greinke, the fact that the team’s management is more concerned with signing him than Hamilton will be the final nail in the coffin for the former AL MVP.

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With every day that passes, more and more free-agent rumors start to swirl about.

Josh Hamilton is far from exempt from these rumors. After having made his demands last week of a seven-year $175 million contract, several teams have either had their interest peaked or have shied away completely.

Hamilton is a fascinating case. He is a prolific baseball talent whom has been haunted by his personal demons in the past. He is in what many consider to be in the latter portion of his prime while seeking a long-term big-money contract.

Sure enough, someone will pay the man.

Here’s the latest on some teams that have been tied to Hamilton recently.

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The San Francisco Giants probably wouldn’t change a thing this winter if they had their druthers.

Shoot, after winning their second World Series championship in three years in convincing fashion over the Detroit Tigers, why would they?

The Giants certainly will make quite a few changes this offseason, though. They have several free agents that they are unlikely to retain, chief among them being Melky Cabrera, and Brian Sabean isn’t going to pass up opportunities to make improvements.

The possibility exists that Sabean will look to make a major improvement by signing a top free agent.

The rumor is a little dated by now, but ESPN’s Buster Olney said back in September that the Giants could be the team to scoop up Josh Hamilton this winter:

Asked some execs this week where they think Josh Hamilton will land in 2013 (and beyond) and one NL official put in a strong vote for SFG.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) September 19, 2012

For what it’s worth, Las Vegas also likes the Giants to sign Hamilton this winter. According to Bovada.lv, via CBSSports.com, the Giants were 3-1 favorites to sign the former AL MVP as of October 11.

As far as I can tell, Giants fans are lukewarm on the idea of their favorite team inking Hamilton to a big contract. The last couple big contracts the team has handed out to free agents—see Zito, Barry and Rowand, Aaron—didn’t work out so well. Sabean‘s best moves in the last few years have been for cheaper, more unheralded players like Angel Pagan and Ryan Vogelsong.

There are, however, some pretty good reasons why the Giants should be considered in play for Hamilton. They may be no more than a dark horse contender in the Hamilton sweepstakes, but he’s a guy they can afford and who could have a significant impact on the club for years to come.

Let’s break it down.

First of All, Here’s Why This Makes Sense

Brian Sabean is going to be a busy man this offseason. The club has several players set to hit the open market, including some names that played key roles in the team’s championship run in 2012 in Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro and Jeremy Affeldt.

Even if Sabean finds a way to maintain the three of them, he’ll still have much work to do. Most notably, he’ll have to do something to patch up the hole in left field that has existed ever since Melky Cabrera’s testosterone suspension.

[Yes, Gregor Blanco did a fine job of filling in for Cabrera down the stretch and in the playoffs, but he’s a player who would be better suited for fourth outfielder duty. It would be better for him to be an asset off the bench than a below-average everyday left fielder.]

In Texas, Hamilton got used to splitting his time between left and center field. Per FanGraphs, Hamilton is a significantly better left fielder than he is a center fielder as far as the sabermetric stats are concerned, and he’d be better off sticking there long-term for the sake of keeping his body intact.

The Giants could use Hamilton in left field, and they could use his bat in their lineup as well. The Giants were an above-average offensive team in 2012, but power was a problem. They finished dead-last in the majors in home runs.

In theory, Hamilton and the Giants are a good fit. The bigger hurdle, obviously, is the money.

Back in September, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com took a wild guess and said that Hamilton is going to get a five-year contract worth $150 million this winter. That’s a $30 million average per year, which would be a new record.

However, this was before Hamilton fell totally flat in the last couple weeks of the season. He even capped things off by going 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and a GIDP in the Rangers‘ loss to the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Wild Card Game.

Hamilton’s struggles down the stretch could leave him with one less leg to stand on in negotiations. So could the terrible slump he went through from the middle of May through the end of July. 

Factor in the reality that there are only going to be so many teams bidding for Hamilton this winter, and my best guess is that he’ll have to settle for a five-year deal worth a max of $125 million.

In a day and age when superstar sluggers like Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols are getting deals worth more than $200 million spread out over nine or 10 years, a five-year deal worth $125 million doesn’t sound all that unreasonable.

Especially not for a team like the Giants. They drew over three million fans to AT&T Park for a third consecutive year in 2012, and they’ll begin the 2013 season with the impressive sellout streak intact. Local interest in the team could not be higher, and it helps that the Giants have the best ballpark in the majors.

The Giants also have plenty of TV money to throw around. Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle has noted that the Giants get somewhere around 30 percent of the revenue generated by their deal with Comcast Sports Net, and they also have national TV money coming their way.

With MLB inking new separate deals with ESPN and with FOX and Turner Sports in the last few months, the amount of national TV money coming the Giants’ way is only going to increase in the near and not-so-near future.

Considering the amount of dough the Giants are rolling in at this point in the club’s history, a $125 million deal over five years sounds even more reasonable. If that ends up being Hamilton’s price, he could be wearing Giants colors before you know it.

What Hamilton Would Bring to the Table

My apologies for all the nickles-and-dimes chatter, but it had to be done in this case. MLB’s financial landscape is changing a lot more than people realize, and you almost need a college degree to master Hamilton’s prospects in free agency.

Hamilton’s case is strange like that, but it’s just a matter of time before somebody pays him. At the end of the day, there just aren’t many players who can do what he can do out on the field.

For all his struggles, Hamilton was one of the best offensive players in the American League in 2012. He finished second in the league in homers with 43, and he placed in the top five in RBI, runs scored, slugging and OPS.

And let’s face it. The fact that Hamilton finished with such strong numbers in the end is pretty impressive seeing as how he hit .224/.302/.430 for over a third of the season. Had he not gone into a slump, he could have hit as many as 60 home runs and racked up as many as 150 RBI.

The team that signs Hamilton will be hoping for the kind of production he managed in the first six weeks of the 2012 season, not to mention the first half of the 2008 season and all of the 2010 season. When he’s right, he may be the most dominant hitter in baseball. In the end, that’s what his new team will be hoping to get. 

The Giants are a little different, though. They already have a very good offensive team with at least one elite hitter in Buster Posey. Pablo Sandoval is among the game’s best when he’s healthy, and the Giants also have a promising young first baseman in Brandon Belt and a solid right fielder in Hunter Pence lined up for 2013.

The Giants don’t really need an elite hitter. They just need an elite power hitter.

In Hamilton, they’d get just that. If he were to stay healthy for around 145 games on an annual basis, the Giants could count on him for somewhere around 40 home runs per year. They haven’t had a guy like that since Barry Bonds.

It’s true that AT&T Park would be an issue for Hamilton, as it’s pretty well entrenched as one of the worst home run havens in the majors (It was the worst home run park in the majors in 2012, according to ESPN.com.)

Bonds, however, never had a problem taming AT&T Park’s walls, and Hamilton may have just as much or even more power in his bat than Bonds did even when he was at the peak of his…well, you know.

Rest assured, the home runs would come. And if you put Hamilton in the middle of the Giants’ lineup, it becomes a very scary unit.

Observe…

How He Would Impact the Lineup

About the only thing we know for sure right now is that Buster Posey will be batting cleanup for the Giants in 2013. The rest of the Giants’ lineup is nebulous until further notice.

But if they re-sign Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, they can be penciled in at leadoff and second, respectively. Then it would just be a matter of the Giants figuring out who would bat in front of and behind Posey.

Hamilton is a guy who could fill either role.

Hamilton is used to being a No. 3 hitter in Texas’ lineup, and it’s a role he’s generally handled well throughout his career. In a total of 2,304 plate appearances, Hamilton has an .882 OPS in his career as a No. 3 hitter.

If the Giants were to bat Hamilton in front of Posey, Pablo Sandoval could protect Posey in the No. 5 spot. That’s a role he excelled at in 2012, as he posted an OPS of .850 when he hit fifth, his highest in any particular spot in the lineup.

However, my issue with Hamilton as a No. 3 hitter is that he’s too strikeout-prone, as he struck out more than 25 percent of the time he came to the plate in 2012. This has much to do with the fact that he swung at pitches outside the strike zone more often than any hitter in the league, according to FanGraphs.

Sandoval also swung at a ton of pitches outside the zone, but he has an uncanny track record of only striking out about 13 percent of the time he comes to the plate in a given season. He’s a free-swinger, but it’s a craft that he has pretty well mastered.

So if it were me, I’d keep Sandoval in the No. 3 hole and bat Hamilton fifth behind Posey. His strikeouts would do less damage in the No. 5 hole, yet his power would scare pitchers into giving Posey more stuff to hit.

Remember, this was an issue in the postseason while Hunter Pence was hitting behind Posey. Pitchers weren’t afraid of him, so they had little incentive to challenge Posey with hittable pitches.

The last thing the Giants want is for that to become a trend in the regular season, and that could very well happen if they don’t find a fearsome hitter to back up Posey.

San Francisco’s lineup could look drastically different in 2014 and 2015, but if the Giants sign Hamilton, they could be looking at a very good long-term trio in Hamilton, Posey and Sandoval.

And at this point, it’s in their interest to have a good core of hitters for the long haul.

How He Would Impact the Giants’ Standing in the NL West

When the 2013 season begins, the Giants are going to be the favorites to win the NL West pretty much by default.

It won’t be that easy, though. The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be a very legitimate threat to the Giants next season. They’ll have a strong starting rotation, a strong bullpen, a pretty good defense and a very, very good lineup.

Regardless of what order Don Mattingly puts them in, we know that the Dodgers are going to have quite a few stars in their lineup. Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will make for a very strong outfield, and the Dodgers will have Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez patrolling their infield.

If everyone stays healthy, the Dodgers’ lineup should be one of the league’s best. It wouldn’t even be much of a shock if they led the majors in runs scored.

This is who the Giants are up against, both right now and for the foreseeable future. And for the time being, they don’t hold a candle to the Dodgers in terms of pure firepower. More is needed.

If the Giants add Hamilton, the playing field will be just about level. The Giants will have the elite home run hitter that they didn’t have in 2012, and he’ll be surrounded by quality hitters up and down the lineup.

The last thing the Dodgers want is for the Giants to sign Hamilton. They’d be getting a big bat, for one, but they’d also be showing the Dodgers that two can play at the high-stakes game that Los Angeles is trying to use to gain control of the NL West.

Mind you, this doesn’t mean that the Giants would suddenly up their payroll to $200 million to take their place alongside the Dodgers among MLB’s fattest cats. In fact, signing Hamilton wouldn’t necessarily stop the Giants from being characteristically measured in their spending.

How His Contract Would Impact Payroll and Future Spending

If the Giants do sign Hamilton this winter, their payroll would surely take a hike to an all-time high. They’d likely open the 2013 season with a payroll over $150 million for the first time in the club’s history.

It could, however, come right back down again in 2014.

Part of the reason the Giants’ payroll is so bloated to begin with at the moment is because they have three players in Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum set to make at least $20 million in 2013. If they add Hamilton, they’ll have four players making at least $20 million.

But after the 2013 season is over, it’s likely that both Lincecum and Zito will come off the books. Lincecum will be a free agent, and it seems doubtful right now that the Giants will have much interest in retaining him (just a hunch). Zito, meanwhile, has an $18 million team option for the 2014 season that the Giants likely won’t pick up. Instead, they could pay Zito $7 million and make him go away forever.

If the Giants do let the two of them go, they’ll be saving somewhere around $40 million in salary commitments. Not too shabby.

Now, they probably won’t be able to take that money and throw it in a room somewhere. They’d surely look to spend it on two guys who will be in line for contract extensions.

Pablo Sandoval is one, as his deal with the Giants is up after 2014. He likely won’t be re-signed for cheap, but it’s hard to see the Giants having to pay him the same kind of money they’re paying Lincecum and Zito right now. At most, I can see Sandoval commanding an annual salary of $14 or $15 million per year.

Buster Posey is also going to need an extension pretty soon. The quicker the Giants move on that front, the better. It would be better for them to lock up Posey for a reasonable annual salary now than it would be for them to have to pay an open-market price for him. At this rate, Posey is going to be at least a $20 million per year player when he hits free agency.

Even if the Giants are spending big bucks on Hamilton, Posey and Sandoval a couple years from now, I’d anticipate the club’s payroll going no higher than the $150 million threshold. That may sound high now, but bear in mind that the club’s payroll has been on the rise for several years and that the Giants’ recent success has generated the kind of revenue to continue signing marquee players. 

Plus, let’s not forget that they’re due an uptick in national TV money in the near future.

Now, even with all of this being said, should anyone think that the Giants are the favorite to sign Hamilton this winter?

In all honesty, no. I actually think the Milwaukee Brewers are going to be the most interested party, and you can never rule out the so-called  “mystery team.” Both Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder ended up on mystery teams last winter, and Hamilton could too.

But the Giants are definitely a realistic final destination for Hamilton.

At the very least, they’re surely an intriguing option.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Salary figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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