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The 2014 Chicago Cubs broke camp in Mesa, Ariz. this week with several unanswered questions in regard to their final 25-man roster. There are several position battles which will involve players who are on the cusp of making the major league squad. 

Which players currently on the roster bubble are going to have a tough time making the team?

Let’s take a few moments to examine the players that project to be locks to make the team. 

Starting Pitchers: (Spots 1-4)

The first four roster spots will be allocated to the rotation. Samardzija, Wood and Jackson are no-brainers. Hammel should land one of the last two spots. He signed an one-year, $6 million plus-incentives deal late in January. 

Relievers: (Spots 5-9)

One of the bright spots in an overall dismal year for the 2013 Cubs was the bullpen. Both Strop and Parker showed a tremendous amount of promise and will play significant roles this season. The newly acquired Wright will team with Russell to tackle lefties. The closer duties will be handled at the onset of the season by the eight-year veteran Veras.

Position Players (Spots 10-14)

Three-fourths of the Cubs infield will be set on Opening Day with Rizzo, Barney and Castro. The backstop will be manned once again by Castillo, who had a breakout year in 2013. Schierholtz is the only outfielder who seems to have a secure spot, as the outfield situation is not as clear in center and left.

Remaining Spots: (15-25)

There are 11 roster spots left to be determined. 

Pitchers (4): Fifth Starter, Middle Relief 1, Middle Relief 2, Long Reliever

Position Players (7): Starting third base, starting center fielder, starting left fielder, backup corner-infielder, backup middle-infielder, fourth outfielder, fifth outfielder

Another position player slot could be added if Cubs manager Rick Renteria decides to go with one less reliever. 

With that said, here are a couple of potential roster spot battles to watch as the spring progresses. These players may have a tough time making the 25-man roster cut.

Starting Third Base: The Cubs seem to be willing to go with a platoon at third base involving incumbents Luis Valbuena and Donnie Murphy.

Bubble Player to Watch: Mike Olt 

One of the big questions heading into spring training is whether or not Olt is ready to make an impact on the major league level. Acquired part of the Garza trade from the Rangers last season, Olt hit .201/15/42 in Double-A and Triple-A in 2013. 

Olt shared his thoughts on the upcoming season with Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago. 

“I don’t really have anything I feel like I have to prove,” Olt said. “I know that I put in a lot of hard work and I think last year was good for me in dealing with a lot of adversity. It’s going to make me a better player and I’m going to (learn) from it.”

What are the odds of Olt making the cut?

It really depends on whether or not his vision problems have fully recovered from the concussion he suffered last offseason in the Dominican Republic winter league. Even if he has fully recovered from the concussion, he will face an uphill battle to make the squad. It seems the Cubs are set on deploying a Valbuena/Murphy third base platoon. Olt will have to have a very strong camp in order to make the team.

Fifth Starter: The fifth starter slot before camp seemed to belong to Jason Hammel. However, with the shoulder setback recently suffered by Jake Arrieta, it seems Hammel is now projected to be the fourth starter. This now opens the doors for several pitchers if Arrieta is not able to make it back by Opening Day. 

Bubble Player to Watch: Carlos Villanueva 

If Arrieta is unable to make it back by Opening Day, expect Chris Rusin and the newly acquired James McDonald to battle for the fifth and long reliever spots on the roster. This leaves Villanueva on the bubble for making the final cut. The eight-year veteran has been exceedingly average, 40-43 record, throughout his career. He started 15 games for the Cubs in 2013, going 7-8 with a 4.06 ERA.

What are the odds of Villanueva making the cut?

It’s going to be tough for Villanueva for make the team with both Rusin and McDonald ahead of him on the depth chart.

If Arrieta does come back sooner as expected and returns before Opening Day, it will be even more difficult for him to make the squad. The odds are against Villanueva unless he has a stellar spring.

Fourth and Fifth Outfielders: The only player who seems to have a spot secured in the outfield is right fielder Nate Schierholtz. The front runners for the other two starting spots are Justin Ruggiano and Junior Lake. Ruggiano, who was acquired via a trade with the Miami Marlins this past offseason, projects to play center field. Lake had a strong second half of the season with the Cubs .284/6/16 and is expected to get an opportunity to start in left.

Bubble Players to Watch: Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson

There could be only two backup outfield spots available. One of those roles going to backup center fielder Ryan Sweeney. The last outfield spot could very well come down to a group of outfielders which include Vitters and Brett Jackson.

What are the odds of Vitters and Jackson making the team?

The odds are not that good. Vitters and Jackson have had their chances in the past and have been unable to capitalize. Jackson and Vitters were both brought up to the majors in August 2012 and failed to impress. Both players struggled with big league pitching and have showed a lack of plate discipline on both minor and major league levels. Unless they can show the ability to hit consistently on the major league level, they will not get another chance at Wrigley.

Stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com

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The Cubs are 9.5 games out of first place in the National League Central as of Tuesday morning. That’s good for fourth place in the division behind the Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers.

One of the more concerning things about that picture is that the Brewers, who are considered by many to be out of contention altogether at this point, have inched their way past the Cubs. Yes, the difference between the two teams is only one game, but it’s simply one more sign that this season needs to turn around fast if the Cubs are going to have a shot at making the playoffs.

I’m not waving the white flag on this team right now, but it’s probably time to start focusing more on the organization’s long-term future than it’s playoff aspirations.

That’s not to say that moves can’t be made to help the Cubs’ 2010 iteration, but anything done needs to be at least as helpful, if not more, for the next few seasons as it is for the here and now.

Fortunately, the Cubs may have a bright future lurking. They just need to figure out how to get from where they are now to where they could be.

First Things First

The Cubs organization has four first basemen with major league experience: Derrek Lee, Xavier Nady, Micah Hoffpauir, and Bryan LaHair.

Lee’s lower-than-usual production has been well-covered; Nady has had a few good stretches, but hasn’t been setting the world on fire; Hoffpauir has been drawing his walks and hitting for some power in Triple-A Iowa, but is dragging a bit with a .239 batting average; and LaHair has maintained some power with a decent walk rate and batting average as Hoffpauir’s teammate.

LaHair is the youngest of the bunch at 27, Hoffpauir is 30, Nady is 31, and Lee is 34. Lee and Nady have expiring contracts, Hoffpauir will be out of options, and LaHair will most likely have a minor league contract if he returns.

Although someone currently playing another position may end up at first a few years down the road, there are no sure-fire major leaguers developing in the minor leagues.

Free agents might be an option with guys like Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, Lyle Overbay, and Mike Lowell potentially hitting the market. Guys like Michael Cuddyer and Brad Hawpe might even be able to switch over full-time.

Derrek’s Future

Whatever the case, if Derrek Lee isn’t going to be coming back next season, it might very well be in the club’s best interest to trade the aging first baseman.

He has secured Type B status for the upcoming offseason and may be on the verge of reaching Type A status, both of which would land the Cubs compensation in next year’s draft if he were to be offered and refuse arbitration, but there is absolutely no guarantee that he wouldn’t accept it.

If he did, the Cubs would be stuck with Lee and whichever one-year contract (the Cubs’ offer or Lee’s) an arbitrator deemed acceptable.

If the risk that lies in offering him arbitration outweighs the potential reward, then it would be better for the organization to get something via a trade before the deadline than to get nothing by letting him walk into free agency without any strings.

Fallout

That would immediately make Nady the starting first baseman this year and open up a roster spot for either Brad Snyder, who is boasting a .293/.374/.527 slash line in Triple-A Iowa this season, or Sam Fuld, who’s getting on base at a decent rate despite not hitting for much in the way of average or power, in the outfield.

Although either player would likely see minimal playing time on the big league squad, they are old enough (both are 28) that development is less of a concern than their potential impact right now.

And both players could have a positive impact on this team: Snyder as a bat off the bench and decent defender or Fuld as a defensive replacement and speed threat.

Since Nady probably won’t demand too much money as a free agent this offseason, he might be an option to keep around as the starting first baseman for the next few years.

Assuming that his arm is back to normal by next year, if LaHair or Hoffpauir emerge as a legitimate starter at first base, Nady could still move back to the outfield.

Another Option

On the other hand, Aramis Ramirez isn’t the same defensive third baseman he used to be and he will almost certainly exercise his 2011 option. He could move over to first base, allowing Mike Fontenot and/or Jeff Baker to get more playing time over at third.

If that path seems likely and the Cubs are securely out of contention before the trading deadline, then the they could afford to also part ways with Nady and let either LaHair or Hoffpauir finish out the season.

Josh Vitters, who has been at Double-A Tennessee since May 7, would then be able to step in when he’s ready (whether that be late 2011, 2012, or beyond) with Ramirez’s transition already taken care of and a starting spot readily available.

Otherwise, should Vitters be ready in late 2011, he would most likely be hung up in Triple-A or be forcing a veteran to the bench—an unenviable position for a young player, to say the least.

Barring a breakout season from Vitters next year, that scenario is unlikely to happen. After all, the Cubs’ third-best prospect this year according to Baseball America will only be 21 years old.

But in the event that it does happen, it would be better to not be handcuffed.

Of course, shoring up two positions doesn’t create a winning ballclub.

Fortunately, the Cubs farm system has been replenished with talent in recent years and, despite the criticisms of many, this roster will have the flexibility to make things happen before too long.

It might take some creativity due to unforeseen circumstances and complications that have popped up since the signing of some of the organization’s cornerstones, but it is completely possible.

Keep an eye out for the next part of this series, coming soon, that will delve deeper into what the future may hold for the North Siders.

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Coming out of Cypress High School (Anaheim, CA), Josh Vitters was considered one of the most polished high school hitters in the 2007 draft.

His arm strength was excellent and considered his best defensive tool, but defense was his weakness. He had no range, was a below average fielder, and had no running speed.

Still, the Cubs selected him as their No. 1 pick in 2007, and Baseball America currently lists him as the No. 3 prospect in their organization.

That decision appears to be starting to pay off. Last summer Vitters hit for both average (.316) and power (15 home runs) in 70 games with Peoria. He advanced to High-A ball and played 50 games with Daytona but did not perform as well. He hit .238 and only had three round-trippers.

This season Vitters started out strong with Daytona (.291, three HRs, 13 RBI) and after 28 games was promoted to Tennessee (AA). In 42 games with Tennessee he has struggled, hitting .233 with four home runs and 17 RBI.

There has been some concern with his patience at the plate. He walked only 12 times in 458 at-bats between Peoria and Daytona last season but has improved this season, walking 14 times in 258 at-bats between Daytona and Tennessee.

On a positive note, he appears to be a good contact hitter, striking out once every 7.05 at-bats last season and 5.40 this season.

Vitters continues to show that he will be a good major league hitter but needs to work on his defense. He is still a few years away but is someone the Cubs will be looking to when Aramis Ramirez’s contract expires (2012).

GO CUBS GO!

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