Kuzul

I’ve said it over and over : Justin Morneau is more valuable to the Twins than Joe Mauer. Before recognition this year, Morneau was always shafted in terms of attention due to the depth of first basemen in the American League.

Morneau has consistently been a top-tier first baseman, but overshadowed by the likes of Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, and Carlos Pena.

If that wasn’t bad enough, he didn’t even get the most attention on his own team, despite being the Twins’ best player. Joe Mauer, after his marvelous 2009 season, continues to be one of the most popular players in America, even when he isn’t performing.

Mauer signed the fourth largest contract in MLB history in the offseason, netting a whopping $184 million over eight years. So in 2012 and 2013, Mauer will be netting $16 million more than Morneau.

Now Mauer isn’t having a bad season by any means, and is still the best catcher in the American League. But his numbers have dipped from last year. Here’s a comparison for what he’s on pace for this year and his last year numbers.

Mauer’s numbers are all projected to be down, despite him missing a month of baseball in 2009. I am not saying Mauer isn’t a great player. However, after signing that huge contract, it is clear he is underperforming.

While Morneau is on the disabled list with a concussion, he is second in the AL in OPS (1.055) and third in batting average (.345). He’s got 18 home runs and 56 RBI in only 81 games played this season.

Now why is Morneau valuable than Mauer? It’s clear by Morneau’s absence. In games without Morneau this year against teams with a .500+ record, the Twins are 4-7. In games with Morneau against teams with a .500+ record, the Twins are 30-22. The Twins win tough games with Morneau and lose them without him.

In contrast, in games with Mauer against teams with a .500+ record, the Twins are 28-25. In games without Mauer against teams with a .500+ record, the Twins are 5-0. The Twins can win without Mauer. They cannot win without Morneau.

Before you say the Twins have been on a hot streak as of late with Mauer and without Morneau, we need to recognize that their opponents were against three of the worst teams in baseball in Seattle, Kansas City, and Baltimore.

So whenever Justin Morneau’s next contract extension talk comes up, his deal should be just bigger than Mauer’s. But it won’t be.

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The non-waiver trading deadline has passed.

The Texas Rangers made arguably the biggest move in the AL with the acquisition of ace Cliff Lee.

They also added some depth with shortstop Cristian Guzman, infielder Jorge Cantu, and catcher Bengie Molina.

In typical New York fashion, the Yankees have put themselves in a position to repeat as World Series champions with the additions of first baseman Lance Berkman, outfielder Austin Kearns, and pitcher Kerry Wood.

Berkman was rumored to be a target for both the Tigers and White Sox, and some reports are he vetoed a deal that would have sent him to Chicago.

So here’s a look at how the three teams contending for the AL Central fared in attempts to make improvements before the trade deadline at 3:00 pm CDT on Saturday.

Chicago White Sox

Key additions: Edwin Jackson—Right-hand pitcher, 6-10, 5.16 ERA.

Key subtractions: Pitcher Jake Peavy—out for the season with right shoulder surgery.

Going 25-5 before the All-Star break, the White Sox went from nine and a half games back and in third place to leading the division by half a game.

With the loss of Jake Peavy for the season, Jackson will help to add some depth to their rotation. With a slightly higher ERA and lower strikeout to walk ratio will have to pitch better in Chicago than he did in Arizona. 

This was the only deal General Manager Ken Williams was able to pull off before the deadline. Will it be enough to keep the Sox out front?

Having gone 9-7 since the All-Star break, their lead remains a half game, but Minnesota has taken over second place from the struggling Tigers. 

The White Sox will still need to add some depth in order to win the division. The task just became a lot more difficult. Any player will have to clear waivers before the deal is completed.

Detroit Tigers

Key Addition: Third baseman Jhonny Peralta—.251 batting average, nine HR, 46 RBI, .315 OBP.

Key Subtractions: Brandon Inge—Out four to six weeks with a broken hand.

The Tigers picked up Peralta from Cleveland for a 19-year-old class-A pitcher Giovanni Soto.

The Tigers were in desperate need of a replacement for Inge and Peralta will fit the bill.

He brings a little more power than what Inge was demonstrating this year, with a slight drop in average and on-base percentage.

The Tigers have been struggling since the break going 4-13, falling to 52-51 and six games behind the White Sox.

Without adding some pitching depth to the lineup is President and General Manager Dave Dombrowski throwing in the towel?

Minnesota Twins

Key Addition: Closer Matt Capps—27 saves, 2.68 ERA

Key Subtractions: Justin Morneau—Currently on the 15-day DL for a concussion.

The Twins needed to add another quality starter to the rotation, and should have been looking for some insurance to back-up Morneau at first.

Michael Cuddyer has been doing a good job filling in, but the addition of either Berkman or Adam Dunn would have gone a long way to plug any potential long-term absence of Morneau.

The only deal GM Bill Smith was able to pull off was the addition of Washington closer Matt Capps. In return, the Twins gave up Double-A left-handed pitcher Joe Testa, and Triple-A catcher Wilson Ramos.

The addition of Capps bolsters the Twins bullpen, allowing interim closer Jon Rauch to move back into the set-up role. This helps fill the gap made with the promotion of Brian Duensing to the starting rotation.

Having gone 12-4 since the All-Star break, the Twins have moved past the Tigers for second place, only a half game behind the White Sox.

Based more on the lack of moves made by the White Sox or Tigers than the move made by the Twins, they can claim victory in deadline deals for the AL Central division. 

At this point the division appears to be the a two-team race between the White Sox and Twins.

The winner will earn the probable right to face either the Rangers or Yankees in the divisional round—and an early exit in the playoffs.     

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During a year in which pitchers are being sold for remarkably low prices, the Minnesota Twins announced last night that they had traded Wilson Ramos to the Washington Nationals for closer Matt Capps. On the face of things, it seems a very high price to pay for a closer.

Ramos, 22, was one of the most-blocked prospects in baseball. Being a catcher in Minnesota’s organization doesn’t exactly qualify you for much playing time, and Ramos was a virtual lock to be traded eventually.

That he was only able to bring Matt Capps as a return, though, is disappointing. Many thought Ramos was worth much more than an expensive relief pitcher, but a lot of that can probably be attributed to a fan base overvaluing a prospect’s worth.

The fact is, Ramos hasn’t helped the Twins out much this year. By hitting a paltry .241/.280/.345 in Triple-A Rochester this season, Ramos’ value has either dropped significantly, or Minnesota’s front office panicked and sold Ramos for less than he was worth.

Capps is owed around $1.3 million for the rest of this season, and is set for another raise for the 2011 campaign. With Joe Nathan expected to attempt a comeback next year, though, Capps may not even be tendered a contract. If Nathan can make a full recovery, Capps would be a very expensive set-up man, to say the least.

While it would be nice to have a Capps-Nathan combo in the 2011 bullpen, the duo would combine to make entirely too much money for the impact they could make on the team as a whole. But while it wouldn’t be cost-effective to keep both a functional Nathan and Capps next year, the 26-year old reliever from Washington will be available should Nathan not recover from Tommy John surgery.

Expensive though he is, Capps makes the Twins a better team than they were yesterday. Being inserted directly into the ninth inning role, Capps will force the entire bullpen chain down a notch, which should help other Minnesota relievers improve, or, in some cases, take high-leverage innings away from relievers who have no business pitching in them.

Capps has induced quite a few ground balls this year, and has seen a healthy drop in his fly ball rate. The transition from Nationals Park to Target Field will be negligible, so the Twins are hoping Capps can keep batted balls on the ground. Minnesota’s infield is much more prepared to handle an increased work-load than the outfield.*

* Minnesota’s currently outfield deserves a post of its own. The primary culprit for Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn’s poor seasons this year, the outfield could use an infusion of range. As Beth Sickella opined last night on Twitter, the Twins should consider giving Cuddyer a few games at third (once Morneau is healthy again, of course) during starts from Slowey and Baker. This will hurt the infield defense, but allow both Repko and Span to play in the outfield. An interesting idea, to say the least.

By bringing in Capps, the Twins will increase their final win total of the regular season by a fraction of a win, at best. Still, in the very tight American League Central, a division that has required a couple Game 163’s, even a fraction of a win could make a huge difference.

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With inconsistency taking a death-grip over Minnesota’s starting rotation this year, the Twins are rumored to have been interested in just about every pitcher on the market. Unquestionably, Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt are the two most coveted trade targets this season, and the Twins would no doubt love to bring in some pitching help.

Rumors are one thing; feasibility is a whole different animal.

Adding a player like Oswalt or Haren would almost certainly tack a few extra wins onto Minnesota’s record, which would significantly increase the Twins’ playoff chances. But could Minnesota commit to a large contract without crippling the team for the next five years?

Maybe.

Pardon the ambiguity, but there is a way to take on an expensive contract without going bankrupt. But first, here are a few points that need to be understood:

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First base is one of, if not the, deepest positions for fantasy owners.  Still, with Justin Morneau hitting the DL, let’s take a look at some potential replacements for those in deeper formats:

Ike Davis—New York Mets
Owned: ESPN – 22%; CBS – 54%; Yahoo – 19%
Davis has had a solid start to his career hitting .254 and showing more power then many expected, with 11 HR in 279 AB.  He hits in the middle of the Mets lineup (moving to fifth with the return of Carlos Beltran), giving him an opportunity for both RBIs and runs scored.  If he can continue to settle in to the major league game and limit the strikeouts (25.8%), he should increase the average (his BABIP is .305) and continue to produce in the second half.

Matt LaPorta—Cleveland Indians
Owned: ESPN – 18%; CBS – 54%; Yahoo – 17%
We all know how bad he was early on, but since Russell Branyan was sent packing, LaPorta is finally producing as hoped.  In July he’s hit .379 (11-29) with two HR, nine RBI and five R.  Don’t forget  he was the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia trade a few years back, so there is no questioning the potential and the talent.  He’s certainly the hot hand and should continue to get ample opportunities to perform in the middle of the lineup.

Justin Smoak—Seattle Mariners
Owned: ESPN – 8%; CBS – 39%; Yahoo – 9%
He hasn’t quite produced as hoped, but now gets fresh start after being sent to Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade.  The potential is still there, however, and he has found a much better opportunity to play everyday as he no longer is looking over his shoulder as he struggled in a pennant race.  The Mariners are already 16.0 games back, so they have time to allow him to take his lumps and learn on the job.  While he’s hitting .202, he’s had no luck (BABIP is .236).  When things start to fall better in his favor (and with a 23.1% line drive rate, 13th best in the league, you know it will), the numbers will improve across the board.  He’s certainly worth the flyer if he’s available.

What are your thoughts?  Which of these three would you prefer?  Where have you gone to replace Morneau?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Justin Morneau has been placed on the 15-day disabled list “as he continues to recover from a concussion that he suffered on July 7,” according to the Minnesota Twins’ official website.

Morneau was attempting to break up a potential double play at second base, when he was accidentally kneed in the head.

This is Morneau’s second trip to the disabled list with concussion symptoms in his career. In 2005, he was hit in the head by a Ron Villone pitch that subsequently landed him on the DL.

Justin will be eligible to come off the disabled list on July 23. 

Despite fantasy baseball owners only missing their starting first baseman for a week, it comes at a crucial time in the season.

With week 15 shortened due to the All-Star break, head-to-head owners were hoping Morneau’s stellar first half numbers carried over into the shortened week, to cash in on a quick head-to-head victory.

Morneau currently leads the majors in on-base percentage (.437), is second to Miguel Cabrera (.346) with a .345 batting average, has blasted 18 homers, and has driven in 56 runs.

For those managers who don’t have a player to fill the void left by Morneau over the course of the next week, check out these potentially available first basemen in mixed leagues of 10 teams or more..

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Another series of rumors took the Internet by storm last night. According to a Detroit radio station’s Twitter account, the Twins and Mariners agreed to a deal that would send Cliff Lee to the Minnesota in exchange for Wilson Ramos and Aaron Hicks.

Eventually, various beat writers and reporters shot down the rumors but did confirm that the two teams were in serious discussions. At this point, I think it’s time we draw some conclusions, in order of confidence:

1. The Twins are interested in trading for Lee.

2. The Twins will not be able to re-sign Lee after the 2010 season.

3. Ramos will be included in any package coming from Minnesota.

4. An outfield prospect will be included in any package coming from Minnesota.

5. The Twins will not include both Ramos and Hicks in a deal for Lee.

I certainly wish I could move that fourth bullet point higher on the list. Giving up both Ramos and Hicks would be a costly mistake, even though it would bring two (hopefully three) months of Lee’s pitching to Minnesota’s rotation.

According to ERA, the Twins have a slightly below-average starting rotation. According to the stat xFIP, Minnesota’s combination of starting pitchers are the third best group in MLB. The Twins have a high BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which should help decrease the team’s ERA over the second half of the season.

Despite the great sabermetric reviews, the Twins remain without an ace. In a short series, few teams would want to face Lee, Francisco Liriano, and Carl Pavano on consecutive days. I don’t blame them.

Before Minnesota can even get to the postseason though, they will have to win the AL Central, which remains as competitive as ever. The Twins are in the thick of the race and should be willing to pay top dollar for every extra win they can log. Minnesota will pay a lot more for Lee than, for example the Houston Astros, simply because every added win greatly contributes to their postseason chances.

While the Twins would be willing to pay more for Lee than most teams—is a Ramos/Hicks package too much?

As much as I would love to see Mauer, Morneau, and Ramos combine to form one of the best C/1B/DH trios in the league. It’s clear that Ramos is expendable. In fact, Ramos is perhaps the most blocked and tradable prospects in baseball. As for Hicks, he is the most talented of the several athletic outfield prospects the Twins have in their farm system. There will be a log jam of outfielders in the future if the Twins don’t deal some away, though Hicks is the 9th-best prospect in the minor leagues, according to ESPN’s Keith Law.

I’d be more than willing to deal Ramos and Hicks together in a deal for Roy Oswalt or Dan Haren, both of whom are under contract for more than just a few months. But for a rental, I’d have to think Ramos and Hicks would be too much.

To play devil’s advocate, here’s a tweet from @chrisandersonis :

“Don’t understand why people would be up in arms about Hicks & Ramos for Lee. #Twins have farmed players for 19 years w/ 0 titles.”

This is true. At some point, giving up young talent in order to win now is the best course of action. But the line between going for broke and reckless spending is often times a tricky one to maneuver.

What do you think? Should the Twins deal Ramos and Hicks for Lee, or hold out for a better deal?

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Happy Canada Day to all!

For most Americans, Canada is the wilderness to our north, a place of moose and mounties. But in more recent times, Canada has also been a hotbed of baseball talent, giving us a Hall of Famer pitcher in Ferguson Jenkins and some great sluggers, like Larry Walker.

Today, Canadian ballplayers are some of the headliners on MVP ballots, Cy Young races, and could one day see Hall of Fame consideration. Who is the most talented Canadian major leaguer today? Here are the top 10.

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Voting for the 2010 MLB All-Star Game ends tonight at 11:59 p.m. That means this is our last chance to make a stand against the popular yet inferior big-name players who infiltrate the Midsummer Classic every year.

It’s too late for some of these races. Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto have no chance of catching Albert Pujols, for example, and there’s no way Shin-Soo Choo and Alex Rios will gain enough ground on Ichiro Suzuki by end of business today.

But there’s still time for some close races to be won for those who truly deserve them.

Two of the three players listed here were in second place at their respective positions at the last update. The third is already winning his race, but is facing a potential challenge from a clearly inferior rival.

Just remember as you flip through this slideshow that, if you support undeserving players, you’re going to be stuck watching them.

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Jim Thome is on the brink of a historic milestone. With his next home run, the 573rd of his career, he will tie Harmon Killebrew for 10th place all-time on the major league home run list.

The Twins have had a knack of signing veteran players just in time to make history.

On September 16, 1993 Dave Winfield became the 19th member of the 3,000 Hit Club with a single against the Oakland A’s. It was Winfield’s 20th season and first of two he played for the Minnesota Twins.

Three years later to the date, Paul Molitor became the 21st player to hit 3,000 hits with a triple against Kansas City. It was Molitor’s first of three seasons with Minnesota.

Now in the 20th season of his career, and first with the Twins, Thome is poised to complete a Hall of Fame career.  

It seems only fitting that Thome should surpass Killebrew’s home-run total wearing a Minnesota Twins’ uniform—a team Killebrew played 21 of his 22 major league seasons for.

The Twins are Thome’s fifth team in his 20th season in the majors. He broke into the majors in 1991 with the Cleveland Indians, a team he would play with for 12 years.

Thome has been a great player and teammate everywhere he’s played.

In a 2003 Cleveland Plain Dealer fan poll, Thome was named the most popular athlete in Cleveland sports history. (2003 was LeBron James’ first year with the Cavaliers—if he re-signs with the Cavs, without a doubt, if he is not already, James will be the most popular Cleveland athlete ever!)

After the 2002 season Thome signed as a free agent with the Philadelphia.

In his first season with the Phillies, Thome led the Senior Circuit in home runs with 47. At the time this was one shy of Mike Schmidt’s team record of 48. (Ryan Howard now holds the Philly season record with 58 home runs in 2006.)

After playing three years for the Phillies from 2003-2005, Thome’s popularity with the Philadelphia fans was still evident on June 19th of this year.

Thome received a standing ovation at Citizens Bank Park after hitting a two-run, pinch-hit, home run in the ninth inning.

After three seasons in Philadelphia, the emergence of Howard made Thome expendable and he was traded to the Chicago White Sox in November 2005. 

In April 2005, as the White Sox designated hitter, he set a team record for the most home runs in a month with 10.   

When he signed with the Twins for the 2010 season he knew his playing time would be limited, and he accepted this role with no complaints. 

As a future Hall-of-Famer, there’s no doubt that his presence has had a positive influence in the Twins’ clubhouse.

He has made the most of his opportunity, appearing in 53 of the Twins’ 78 games, and accumulating 117 at bats thus far.

Coming off of a nine-game, interleague road trip, where Thome had the one home run with only five at bats, he hit a home run in the first two games as the DH against the Detroit Tigers, back home at Target Field. 

Thome is currently third on the Twins with eight home runs, averaging a home run every 14.6 AB. This ratio is better than that of Justin Morneau who is leading the club with 16 home runs, and averages a HR every 17 at-bats.

If this is Thome’s last season it will mirror Killebrew’s in a couple of ways:

They will have hit their 573rd home run at the age of 39.

Their careers will have ended with another team within the division where their career started.

And both will be remembered at great players and good men.

Good Luck Jim Thome—here’s hoping your 573rd home run is hit at Target Field.  

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