Tag: Justin Upton

MLB Awards for MIPs: The Most Important Players by Team

While players like Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Josh Hamilton are accustomed to winning MVP awards, but it doesn’t mean they are the most important players for their team to win.

We all know about team’s most valuable players, but who really is the most important player for each team to have a successful season?

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Arizona Diamondbacks: 2011 MLB Season Preview

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Last Year: 65-97, 5th in NL West 

Manager: Kirk Gibson

 

PROJECTED LINEUP

C- Miguel Montero (L)

1B- Juan Miranda (L)

2B- Kelly Johnson (L) 

3B- Melvin Mora (R)

SS- Stephen Drew (L)

LF- Xavier Nady (R)

CF- Chris Young (R)

RF- Justin Upton (R)

 

Preview

The D’backs lineup has a good amount of power, but the lineup struck out more than any other in 2010. Both numbers should decrease with the trade of Mark Reynolds, but there are other questions in this group.

Justin Upton has the most talent of anyone in the lineup, but he took a step back last season. He struck out 30 percent of the time in 2010, but his isolated power dropped.

I’m not alarmed by 2010, and he should bounce back to hit 25 home runs, steal 15-20 bases, and produce a line of .280/.365/.500.

Chris Young should put up similar power numbers as Upton. He doesn’t strikeout as much, but he doesn’t hit for as high an average. Look out for 25 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a line of .250/.330/.450.

Xavier Nady should bat sixth in the lineup, but he might get some playing time taken away by Brandon Allen. Nady struggled last season with the Cubs, and if he puts up similar numbers, Allen will start to take away at bats. 

Miguel Montero is a good bat at the catcher position. He has some power (expect 12-15 home runs), and should hit for a .270 average and produce a .340 OBP.

Juan Miranda will surprise some Arizona fans, and I detail his season later in the preview.

Kelly Johnson had one of the most surprising seasons in the majors after hitting 26 home runs and batting .284. He won’t match that season, but I believe he nets 20 home runs, 9-13 stolen bases, and a line of .275/.350/.455.

Stephen Drew is still one of the league’s better offensive shortstops. He produces 15-20 home runs and a line around .275/.340/.450.

Melvin Mora is the weak link in the lineup with his diminished bat speed. He is just a stop gap for the young third basemen they have coming up through the system. 

The Diamondbacks were the top ranked defense in UZR last season.

The defense made some errors, but they had the best range of any team in baseball. The infield defense is stellar.

Drew has become one of the better fielding shortstops in basbeball, and his double play partner, Johnson, had a phenomenal season at 2B with a 7.7 UZR rating.

Miranda is solid at first base, but the team will miss Reynolds at third base.

Mora had a negative 10.4 UZR rating last season.

Montero is below average behind the plate because of his poor blocking ability. Montero has a decent arm, but he allows too many passed balls.

Both Justin Upton and Chris Young are very good defenders at their positions, but  Nady is a below average outfielder in left field.

 

BENCH

IF/OF- Ryan Roberts (R) or IF- Tony Abreu (S) 

1B- Russell Branyan (L)

OF- Gerardo Parra (L) 

C- Henry Blanco (R)

IF/OF- Willie Bloomquist (R)

IF- Geoff Blum (S) (Will start season on DL)

 

STARTING ROTATION 

RHP- Ian Kennedy 

RHP- Daniel Hudson

LHP- Joe Saunders

RHP- Barry Enright

RHP- Aaron Heilman or RHP-Armando Galarraga

LHP- Zach Duke (Out until May)

Ian Kennedy will take the ball on Opening Day after being the D’Backs’ most consistent starter last season.

Kennedy uses an array of curveballs and changeups to compliment his 88-91 MPH he uses on the corners. He will show a below average slider, but his changeup and curveball are very good. He will strikeout close to eight per nine innings, while walking three per nine that should produce an ERA similar to his 2010 3.80.

Daniel Hudson’s performance after coming over from the White Sox was one of the more surprising stories during the second half of the season. Hudson averages 92.5 MPH on his fastball and he generates a lot of swing and misses on his slider and filthy changeup.

Don’t expect Hudson to replicate his 2.40 ERA, but his flyball rate is worry some in Arizona. He should maintain a 7.5 K/9 rate but his ERA should finish in the 3.90 range.

Joe Saunders is a solid number four starter on a contending team, and he seems out of place on a rebuilding club. Saunders does have below average strikeout numbers (4.89 K/9 in 2010), and his home rate is sure to increase in a full season in Arizona. He is a safe bet to walk 2.80 per nine innings, and pitch close to a 4.60 ERA.

Barry Enright, who will slot behind Saunders, pitched to a solid 3.91 ERA last season. He averages 89.3 MPH on his two and four seam fastballs and the rest of his repertoire includes a good slider, average curveball, and changeup. 

Enright had a very fortunate season by having an extremely high left on base percentage at 84, and a low BABIP at .248. The 20 home runs he allowed in 99 innings is a troubling number, so a 4.60 ERA, 6.00 K/9, and 2.50 BB/9 rates are what to expect from the number four starter.

Aaron Heilman will probably get the nod over Galarraga for the last spot in the rotation. 

Zach Duke broke his pitching hand, which should keep him on the DL until May. 

Heilman hasn’t started since 2005 and it will be interesting to see whether or not he can maintain his fastball for 100 pitches early in the season. His fastball will be probably average 90 MPH in the rotation, and he needs to throw his slider more to keep hitters off his changeup. 

 

BULLPEN

RHP- JJ Putz (Closer) 

RHP- Juan Gutierrez

RHP- David Hernandez

LHP- Joe Patterson 

RHP- Esmerling Vazquez

RHP- Aaron Heilman or RHP- Armando Galarraga 

RHP- Sam Demel or LHP- Mike Hampton 

The Diamondbacks had one of the worst bullpens in history last season and new GM, Kevin Towers, added two pieces this offseason to upgrade the staff. 

JJ Putz hasn’t closed since 2008, but Putz had a great 2010 season for the White Sox as a setup man. 

Putz throws averages 94 MPH on his fastball and mixes in a good slider and dominant splitter. He should strike out more than a hitter per inning, walking more than three per nine, and a 2.90 ERA.

David Hernandez, acquired from the Orioles in the Mark Reynolds deal, pitched showed better stuff after moving from the rotation to the bullpen.

He should strikeout close to 8.5 per nine, but his four walks per nine and poor home run rate should leave him with an era in the mid 4.00’s. 

The rest of the bullpen looks like it will face some of the same troubles this season.

Juan Gutierrez struggled giving up the long ball last season (13 Home Runs in 55 innings). He still has a lively fastball and good enough slider to cut that number in half, and pitch to a low 4.00 ERA.

Joe Patterson was taken in the Rule V draft, and will be the primary left-handed specialist. He posted great numbers against lefties in the Giants‘ farm system, including striking out more than eight per nine in AAA last season.

Esmeriling Vazquez has good strikeout numbers, but his terrible command will keep him out of high leverage situations. 

Armando Gallagraga looks to be the long man after struggling in the competition for the last spot in the rotation. I think Gibson and Towers would like a second southpaw in the pen, and Mike Hampton seems like the best bet. 

 

NOTABLE NON ROSTER INVITEES 

LHP- Mike Hampton 

RHP- Micah Owings 

RHP- Brian Sweeney 

LHP- Clay Zavada 

1B- Russell Branyan (L)

IF- Cody Ransom (R)

OF- Willy Mo Pena (R)

 

BREAKOUT PLAYER- Juan Miranda 

I’ve always liked Miranda’s power, but he never was given an opportunity to showcase it with the Yankees.

GM Kevin Towers, who was a special assistant in the Yankees organization last season, liked what he saw in Miranda. He will strikeout more than 20 percent of the time, but he does get on base and he provides solid defense at first base.

I see Miranda hitting 20-25 home runs with a .275/.350/.490 line. 

 

PROSPECT TO WATCH- RHP Jarrod Parker 

Parker, a former D’Backs number first round pick in 2007, missed the entire 2010 season with Tommy John surgery.

Parker is considered a prospect who can become a number one type starter. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a sharp slider, changeup, and curveball.

I think Parker might get a shot at down the line for the D’Backs in September. 

 

PROJECTED FINISH- Fifth in NL West

The D’Backs lineup isn’t as strong as last year’s, and the bullpen looks like it will continue to struggle.

The rotation has talent, but it is hard to imagine Hudson and Enright as well as they did in 2010.

I think the offense will produce just as much power, but they should cut down on the strikeouts without Reynolds. I expect the club to improve a bit on its record, but a last place finish seems the most likely result for the club.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Preview 2011: Looking at Justin Upton and the Arizona Diamondbacks

Before the start of last season, the Diamondbacks were a trendy pick to make some noise in the NL West.  Then Brandon Webb’s shoulder suffered a set-back and the season went down the toilet.

The bullpen was atrocious, the third worst in Major League history.  The organization decided to part with strikeout king Mark Reynolds to acquire bullpen help from Baltimore.

Kirk Gibson got the managerial job after a successful stint as the interim manager last year.  Arizona posted a winning record in August.  We’ll see if that success can translate into this season.

ALSO CHECK OUT

Pitcher Rankings

Positional Rankings

2011 Atlanta Braves Preview

2011 Florida Marlins Preview

2011 New York Mets Preview

2011 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

2011 Washington Nationals Preview

2011 Chicago Cubs Preview

2011 Cincinnati Reds Preview

2011 Houston Astros Preview

2011 Milwaukee Brewers Preview 

2011 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

2011 St. Louis Cardinals Preview 

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Fantasy Baseball: 50 Fearless Fantasy Projections for 2011

With fantasy baseball drafts in full swing, here are 50 fearless fantasy predictions to consider for the 2011 season.   

50. Derek Jeter is your number three fantasy shortstop after Hanley and Tulo —Look for a bounce back year aimed at proving he’s still earning his money.

49. Ubaldo Jiminez will undoubtedly be overvalued in your league—Remember his 2nd half?

48. Mike Stanton will finish in the top five in the NL in home runs—He’s also not going to win any batting titles.

47. Aroldis Chapman is this year’s Neftali Feliz—There’s no questioning the ability, it’s all about control and opportunity.

46. Billy Butler is really Mike Sweeney—The power just isn’t coming.

45. Roy Oswalt finishes with the best numbers of any Phillies starter—Call it a hunch.

44. Alex Rodriguez continues to regress—We aren’t going to see .300 with 35+ home runs from him again.

43. Matt Kemp finishes with better numbers than CarGo—We’ve seen the worst of the former and the best of the latter.

42. Cameron Maybin steals more than 30 bases and is fantasy relevant—He’s got the tools and he’s still just 24 years old.

41. Josh Johnson is not worth the risk-Back AND shoulder problems, no thanks.

40. Wandy Rodriguez will be overvalued during your draft—He is what he is.

39. Max Scherzer will be undervalued during your draft—Look at his second half stats.

38. Aaron Hill has a bounce back year—If I’m wrong, so is everyone else.

37. Delmon Young’s home run total rises again this year—Look at last season’s doubles.  Despite four full major league seasons, he’s still only 25.

36. Jonathan Papelbon doesn’t finish the season the season as Boston’s closer—For the record, I also don’t think its Bobby Jenks.

35. Someone in your draft will reach for B.J. Upton—You don’t want to be that owner.

34. John Lackey will be significantly better than last season—He’s being undervalued by everyone.

33. Drew Stubbs will not be significantly different than Chris Young—It’s all about eating the batting average.

32. There won’t be much difference between Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro—You’ll pay a lot less for Castro.

31. Someone will take a chance on Brian Roberts and his back—It shouldn’t be you.

30. Rafael Soriano saves double digit games—Hard to believe Mariano Rivera continues to be superhuman.

29. Francisco Liriano improves again this year—If he’s 85 percent of his 2006 self three years removed from Tommy John surgery he’s a steal on draft day.

28. Howie Kendrick becomes the player we’ve all projected he would be—Only because we’ve mostly all given up at this point.

27. Shortstop is so shallow that if Rafael Furcal gets 500 at bats he could challenge for top five at the position—That’s also a pretty big “if”.

26. Tsuyoshi Nishioka could hit .300, steal 25-30 bases and score 100 runs—He’ll be a cheaper source of steals than Chone Figgins.

25. Craig Kimbrel is this year’s Carlos Marmol—You can’t help but love the Ks.

24. Enough owners are hesitating on Miguel Cabrera that he’s falling in drafts—Until he takes to twitter and starts using the hashtag #winning, I’m not willing to be one of those owners.

23. Over three seasons in Texas, Josh Hamilton has averaged 126 games—I’ll take the under.

22. Josh Hamilton will still play more games for the Rangers than Nelson Cruz-Cruz is a highly productive player, but dealing with his day-to-day status and DL stints is just too frustrating.

21. Shin-Soo Choo may be as predictably safe a five category outfielder as there is—He lacks upside, but barring injury, .300-85-20-85-20 seems virtually guaranteed.

20. Hunter Pence may be the second most predictable outfielder—Three straight seasons of exactly 25 home runs, seriously?  He’s also never driven in 100 runs.

19. Carlos Lee’s numbers will continue to trend downward—He’s not a player you should be willing to own anymore.

18. Josh Beckett rebounds to win 15 or better this season—He’ll give up runs, but the WHIP remains strong and he can still strike hitters out; plus, the Sox revamped offense will keep him in more games.

17. I expect Angel Pagan to be at least as valuable as last season-Beyond David Wright is there anyone in the Mets lineup to fear?  They will need to manufacture runs.

16. Andre Ethier rebounds to finish around his 2009 numbers—You can probably apply that same logic to most of the Dodgers hitters.  Last season was just odd.

15. Justin Upton stays healthy and gets to 30-30 without being a batting average liability—The same can’t be said for his brother.

14. Check out the even number year/odd number year split for Prince Fielder’s career—There’s no logic to it, but it is 2011.  I’m just saying.

13. Vladimir Guerrero is the best late round chance out there for 30 home runs and 100 RBIs—He’ll hit ten of those home runs on balls no one else would even swing at.

12. Despite the Daniel Hudson hype, I think Madison Bumgarner is a much better value—We’ve even seen him do it in the post-season.

11. I don’t think we see 100 games out of Justin Morneau this season—I would love to see him come back and return to prior form but all the failed return attempts from last year give me pause.

10. Jimmy Rollins is no longer a top ten shortstop—The average has declined each of the last three years and the wear and tear is starting to show.  Health will be a concern again.

9. Alex Rios is in for a big year—Expect the steals to fall off some, but the average and power will improve as he likely sees better pitches hitting third in front of Konerko and Dunn.

8. Kevin Youkilis has more value than is being projected—Remember he’ll be playing third base with Adrian Gonzalez now in Boston, and that’s a fairly shallow position.

7. Brandon Morrow is the most underrated starter in the American League going into the season—Pitching in the AL East is brutal, but he handled it well last year and has 200+ K ability.

6. Tommy Hanson disappoints anyone calling him a fantasy ace—This is purely another gut call.

5. In the battle of the “outfielders Ja(y)son”, Werth easily bests Heyward—This is purely a 2011 prediction.

4. Colby Rasmus disappoints the fantasy baseball world—It won’t be his fault and owners are going to curse Tony LaRussa when he winds up in a platoon situation.

3. Adam Dunn will hit 45 or more home runs—It’s been a long time since he’s seen the kind of lineup protection he’ll enjoy in Chicago.

2. Francisco Rodriguez doesn’t save 30 games—Not the pitcher he once was, and with the off-the-field issues and a club that could finish last in NL East, I just can’t see him keeping it together all season. 

1. Andrew McCutchen is the young hitter most worth reaching for—He’s truly a five tool player and a .300 season with 20 home runs and 40 stolen bases is a definite possibility.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Arizona Diamondbacks MLB 2011 Predictions: 10 Things That Could Make Them Champs

Justin Upton and the Arizona Diamondbacks had a rough go in 2010. Plagued by a historic case of strikeout fever—the batters whiffed 144 times more than any other club in the National League and the pitchers struck out the third-fewest opponents on the senior circuit—and a poor defense, the team lost 97 games.

Manager A.J. Hinch and GM Josh Byrnes got the axe, and have been replaced by Kirk Gibson (in the dugout) and Kevin Towers (in the front office).

The team did little this winter to suggest they feel like contenders in 2011. Their pitching staff was young but got even younger, and their lineup now features more contact hitters but far less upside risk. Still, this team has some pieces that have enigmatically struggled in recent years, and if they put it all together, who knows? The snakes could bite some unsuspecting National League foes.

Here are 10 things that have to happen first.

This is the first in a series of pieces listing 10 things that would have to go right for each MLB team to win a pennant this season. To find out when your favorite team’s article comes out, follow me on the twitter @MattTrueblood, or sign up for your team’s Bleacher Report newsletter.

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MLB 2011 Preview: Who Will Pull a Dennis Rodman and Rebound from 2010?

The 2011 MLB season is right around the corner.

Spring training is upon us and players are looking to standout and build up momentum heading into the upcoming season. 

While many of these players are rookies and young talents trying to land a roster spot in the big leagues, some are veterans and proven players who are trying to rebuild their reputation.

Whether they’ve been traded from the AL to the NL, are finally healthy, or were unable to perform in 2010, these players are looking to prove their worth to the baseball community.

The success of these players could make or break their teams success in the coming year, while the second half of their careers could hang in the balance.

We take a look at those once “prime-time” players who are looking to rebound in 2011 after a disappointing 2010.

The top 10 rebound candidates are…

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Is Justin Upton the Next Barry Bonds? Also, What He Might Produce in 2011

This past November when new Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers admitted that he would be willing to move star outfielder and former No. 1 draft choice Justin Upton, many people were slightly confused.  Not only was Justin Upton only 23 years old, but he was also clearly Arizona’s top player and had just inked a long-term deal (with the Diamondbacks former GM) to stay in Arizona with a relatively team-friendly price tag of only $50 million over the next five seasons. 

However, Upton was coming off what some people were calling a down year.  In 2009, Upton hit 26 home runs and .OPS’d a MVP-esque .898.  However in 2010, Upton only clubbed 17 home runs and saw his .OPS drop to a more modest .798.  In the following days after Towers admitted he had floated Upton to other teams, a flurry of rumors flew around about teams calling for the Diamondbacks star youngster. 

Fast forward to spring training, and the rumors have died down; it has become quite clear that Kevin Towers will not find a new home for his (now) 24-year-old right fielder.  One executive said the asking price for Upton was, “ridiculous.”  The price was, then believed to be at least four or five talented MLB ready players.  The kind of guys who only get moved for the best of the best or not even traded at all.

Sound ridiculous?  Consider this: Justin Upton may very well be the next Barry Bonds.  Not the Bonds who while using steroids in 2001 hit 73 home runs…and only 49 (!!) singles.  But more along the lines of the Bonds who was a perennial MVP candidate from about 1989-1998. 

In Upton’s first 1,700 plate appearances, he has shown just that, in fact, his numbers are surprisingly similar to Bonds’ first 1,700 PAs.  Upton’s .OPS was .828, Bonds’ was a slightly lower .814.  Upton belted 60 home runs (one every 25 at bats), and Bonds drilled 65 (one every 23 at bats).  Bonds only collected 165 RBI while Upton plated 208 runners. 

Their slash lines were remarkably similar: Upton hit .272/.352/.471, while Bonds hit .258/.343/.471 over the same stretch of their careers.  The only significant difference between the two comes to us from WAR (wins above replacement), and this can be attributed to Upton’s average defense versus Bonds allegedly elite D.  Upton was worth 7.7 WAR while Bonds was worth almost twice that at 14.4 WAR. 

However, we can certainly question the reliability of all ways for accounting for defense into WAR for players who did not play in our current sabermetrics era.  Today, WAR uses the defensive metric UZR which has only been around since 2002; UZR comes from batted ball data.  For all calculations of past players’ WAR, defense is measured with a much-less reliable formula which takes fielding percentage, assists and putouts into play. 

So, how can we determine what to expect from the younger Upton brother over the next few seasons?  I believe that we can simply look to Bonds as a good indicator of how Justin will fare next season.  (His projections may be of particular interest to anyone out there who plays fantasy baseball.) 

Over Bonds’ next 1,900 plate appearances, he hit .279/.388/.496, and in addition, he averaged 26 home runs and 96 RBI.  His .OPS was a solid .886 and his WAR was an astronomical eight-plus a year.   The home run and RBI totals match Upton’s career high, so we know he is capable of producing at those levels in 2011, probably with just a little bit of a drop off in the HR department. 

The .388 on base percentage is probably a bit out of Upton’s reach due to Bonds over his next 1,900 PAs had a BB% well over 12 percent which is ridiculously high.  He even peaked at 15 percent in 1990.  That BB% is so high that only six players in 2010 had a BB% of over 14; they were: Daric Barton, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista and Jason Heyward.  So while Upton’s career base on ball percentage is better than 10.5 percent, he will probably not reach the same status as Bonds.  But how much of a difference will the BB% difference of probably about 2 percent make on .OBP?

I looked to the stats to find out.  In 2010, three players made 675 plate appearances: Matt Holliday, Austin Jackson and Michael Cuddyer.  Holliday’s BB% was 10.2 percent, Jackson’s was 7 percent and Cuddyer’s was 8.6 percent.  When I subtracted the players’ .OBP from their batting averages (.AVG), I came down to a stat that I imagine is similar to .ISO (isolated slugging percentage) which for brevities sake, I will call “.ISOBB”. 

Holliday’s BB% was 1.6 percent greater than Cuddyer’s, and when I subtracted their .ISOBB from one another’s, I came to find that the 1.6 percent BB% rate was good for .013 points in .OBP.  To check this, I compared Austin Jackson and Michael Cuddyer, whom also have 1.6 percent difference in their BB% and came to find that the difference in .ISOBB was also .013.

Player PAs BB% .OBP .OBP – .AVG= .ISOBB
Matt Holliday 675 10.2% .390 .390 – .312= .078
Austin Jackson 675 7.0% .345 .345 – .293= .052
Michael Cuddyer 675 8.6% .336 .336 – .271= .065

The next step to determining Upton’s .OBP for 2011 is to determine his .ISOBB; Bonds’ was .109 which is pretty astronomical, and we have already established the fact that Upton’s will be around .013 to .020 different based on his lower BB%.  Upton’s .ISOBB should end up around .093.

The .279 average that Bond’s posted was lowered significantly by a .248 average one year.  In fact, over the course of both players’ earlier careers, Upton has shown that he possesses a far better batting average.  He hit over .300 in his second full season, a feat Bond’s didn’t accomplish until his fourth season.  So Upton, we can assume (safely), will probably hit higher than .279 in 2011; let’s say .284.  Which when adding in his .ISOBB, puts his .OPB at .377. 

The last thing to consider is slugging percentage, and Bonds probably edges out Justin Upton in this category like in BB%.  How much? Well, during their first 1,700 PAs, Bonds’ .ISO was .014 better at .213, compared to Upton’s .199.  Over the next three seasons, Bond’s didn’t improve much, rising to about .219.  If Upton follows the same improvement, he should float in around .205 which would put him at a .489 slugging percentage.

All in all, Upton’s 2011 season should look something like this: .284/.377/.489 with about 25 home runs and 95 RBI.  I’ll be curious to see exactly what he does end up doing.  As for the predictions by the mathematicians/computers that are paid/designed to do predictions, when the average of fangraph.com’s “Marcel” and “Bill James” predictions are taken, it results in a .285/.367/.489 line…pretty similar to what I came up with actually. 

So is Justin Upton the next Barry Bonds? We’ll have to see, but I would say yes.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Fantasy Debate: Justin Upton vs. Alex Rios?

While there’s some question as to who’s better between Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez or between Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday, there’s little doubt that those are the top four outfielders. The outfielders after them are a different story.

Enter Justin Upton and Alex Rios.

Upton is one of baseball’s top young players. It’s no surprise then that when Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers put his name on the trading block a few months back, almost every team made an offer. Towers wisely pulled him off the block after he realized he couldn’t risk trading away someone as talented as Upton.

Rios had a career year in his first full season with the White Sox. He’ll look to continue to prove that his disastrous season in 2009, in which the Blue Jays placed him on waivers and didn’t even demand a player in return, was an anomaly.

Today we’ll decide which outfielder should be drafted first.

Each player is assigned a grade for each of the five standard offensive categories plus a few extra I felt were important to factor. Grades are based on my expectations for the season and take into account both the player’s expected performance relative to the entire player pool and relative to the position he plays at. Grades were averaged using the standard 4.0 GPA scale to provide a cumulative “Professor’s Grade.”

 

Category Justin Upton Alex Rios Edge?
Professor’s Grade 3.34 (B+) 3.24 (B) Upton
Runs B+ B+ Draw
Batting Average B+ B+ Draw
Home Runs A- B Upton
Runs Batted In A- B Upton
Stolen Bases B B+ Rios
Health B- A- Rios
Potential Ceiling A B Upton
Pick Security B B+ Rios

 

The Case for Upton 

After batting .300 with 26 HR and 20 SB in 2009, Upton was destined for stardom in 2010. Unfortunately, he failed to reach 20 HR or 20 SB and saw his batting average dip to .273 before a shoulder injury forced him to miss most of September.

It’s easy to forget that Upton is still just 23 years old. The former No. 1 overall pick has all the tools you look for in an elite fantasy player. Not counting the freakishly strong Mike Stanton, Upton has the most power of any major leaguer under the age of 24. He’s also athletic enough to steal 20-plus bases, a feat he has already accomplished in his young career. As if that’s not tantalizing enough, he’ll be batting out of the three-hole in a hitter’s ballpark.

Despite Upton’s disappointing stats last year, there were signs of encouragement. His walk rate was 11.2 percent, up from 9.4 percent in his breakout 2009 season. It’s rare for a player as young as Upton to show such a knack for drawing walks and it will only help increase his R and SB potential. Upton also improved his line drive rate and GB/FB ratio, which bodes well for an increase in power and batting average.

The sky is the limit for Upton and he certainly has the potential to produce first-round numbers.

 

The Case for Rios

Rios truly is a five category producer. He was one of three players to reach 20 HR and 30 SB, with Hanley Ramirez and Drew Stubbs being the others. It was the second time Rios reached both of those marks and the first time he did so in the same season.

Rios is also one of the few power speed players that won’t hurt your batting average. If you take out his 2009 season, Rios hasn’t batted less than .284 since 2005.

Furthermore, Rios plays in a hitter friendly lineup. He’s surrounded by talented players such as Adam DunnPaul KonerkoCarlos QuentinGordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez. While he doesn’t have the same potential as Upton, he has shown more consistency and durability.

 

Who Should I Draft?

Upton and Rios are close in value, but I believe Upton is the better pick. From the chart above you can see that they each have the advantage in three categories, but Upton has the better overall grade.

You can also see that Upton has a distinct power advantage, a skill set that is becoming harder to find. The only real categorical advantage that Rios has is speed, but Upton will still contribute there for you. While Rios is definitely a safe pick due to his consistency, Upton’s potential is far too great to ignore.

He’s already one of the best young players in the game and has much room to grow. It’s for that reason that I’m taking Upton over Rios.

Check out our other head-to-head matchups, found only at Baseball Professor, as well as our other preseason coverage.

Miguel Cabrera vs. Joey Votto

Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Clayton Kershaw

Ryan Zimmerman vs. Alex Rodriguez

Kevin Youkilis vs. Kendry Morales

Carl Crawford vs. Carlos Gonzalez

Cole Hamels vs. Brett Anderson

Rickie Weeks vs. Ian Kinsler

David Price vs. Justin Verlander

2011 Fantasy Sleepers

2011 Draft Coverage

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball Debate: Is Justin Upton A 4th Round Pick In Yearly Formats?

Justin Upton is one of the brightest young stars in baseball—at least, that’s what we are supposed to believe. 

We all know he has the talent, as we’ve seen it at times, but given what he’s shown recently, should we be rolling the dice on him in the late third or early fourth round of fantasy drafts (since his current ADP, according to Mock Draft Central. is 40.27)?

Obviously, if you are in a keeper league, this discussion is completely void. In a league where you are looking not just at 2011, but beyond, there are few players that you would probably rather have than Upton. 

Keep that in mind as you read on.

First, let’s take a look at Upton’s 2010 production:

495 At Bats
.273 Batting Average (135 Hits)
17 Home Runs
69 RBI
73 Runs
18 Stolen Bases
.356 On Base Percentage
.442 Slugging Percentage
.354 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Those numbers paled in comparison to his 2009 campaign when he hit .300 with 26 HR and 20 SB. He was supposed to turn the corner in 2010 and take the next step in his development; instead, he regressed significantly.

Yet, owners are still valuing him like he lived up to expectations.

One of the major concerns is his strikeout rate, which took a significant step backwards:

  • 2008 – 34.0% (356 AB)
  • 2009 – 26.0% (526 AB)
  • 2010 – 30.7% (495 AB)

Yes, you could argue that he turned the corner in that regard as the season progressed (25.8% in July, 24.8% in August) but the threat is still there. The idea that he could post such a high strikeout rate makes it hard to expect him to hit .300. Obviously, if he could maintain his mid-season success (as he did in 2009), it is possible. 

The upside is there, but is it something that is a guarantee?

He has power potential, but what exactly has he shown to make us think that he’s going to suddenly become a 30+ HR threat in 2011? His HR/FB fell significantly in ’10, going from 18.8% to 12.4%. 

So, which is it? It’s likely that he is somewhere in the middle, but at this point does anyone really know for sure?

Who is to say that he is more likely to return to his ’09 power as opposed to repeat his ’10 struggles? Yes, we all know the potential, but he is still just 23 years old. There just is not guarantee.

The speed is solid, but he’s not a 30 SB threat. That is something that he has proven, with 38 total stolen bases over the past two years. Yes, it is a solid number, but how much better is it than other options?

Just look at Hunter Pence’s 2010 numbers, who has a current ADP of 84.53:

.282, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 93 R, 18 SB

He outperformed Upton basically across the board, yet Upton’s hype and potential cause him to be drafted nearly 50 spots higher? 

Honestly, it doesn’t make any sense.

Pence has proven to be a consistent performer year in and year out. He is going to be a 25 HR hitter.  He is going to hit around .280. He is going to steal between 15 and 20 bases. Plus, now that he is likely the full-time No. 3 hitter for the Astros, there is a good chance that he goes 90/90 once again.

Could Upton outperform those numbers? Absolutely. He has that “potential.” However, he showed in 2010 that he also still has a long way to go and has not yet fully realized what he can and cannot achieve on the diamond.

Of course, you also have the concerns regarding his shoulder injury that plagued him in 2010. It cost him time in September and maybe did contribute to his overall struggles. 

Are you willing to bet on it, though?

Potential is tremendous, but when you are drafting for one season is it really something you want to gamble on that early? It certainly isn’t for me, especially when I can get similar, if not better, production four rounds later.

What about you? Is Upton someone you would in the fourth round of yearly leagues?  Why or why not?

 

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2011 MLB Predictions: Arizona Diamondbacks Opening Day Lineup

The Arizona Diamondbacks 2011 Major League Baseball Season couldn’t be any worse than their 2010 season, could it?

The 2010 MLB Season marked the second consecutive year the Arizona Diamondbacks finished with a losing record (65-97) and in last place in the National League (NL) West.

The team’s slow start resulted in manager AJ Hinch and general manager Josh Byrnes losing their jobs midway through the season on July 1st.

Hinch was replaced by the legendary Kirk Gibson while Jerry Dipoto filled in for Byrnes on an interim basis before Kevin Towers was hired in the offseason.

To make matters worse, the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks set the all-time MLB Team Record for strikeouts by a hitters with 1,529 with Adam LaRoche (172) and Mark Reynolds (211) both leading the charge.

LaRoche was not resigned and Reynolds was traded to the Baltimore Orioles during the offseason.  The Diamondbacks also made various moves for the 2011 MLB Season to improve their bullpen’s league worst 5.47 ERA, including the signing of veteran closer JJ Putz.

After trading tenured veterans and fan favorites, Chad Qualls, Dan Haren and Reynolds, along with hiring Gibson and Towers, the 2011 MLB Season is certainly a new beginning for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

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