Kuzul

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve announced the top 40 players on our 2011 big board. To help keep these rankings easy to find, we’re recapping the 31-40 group in one short post. Click on each player’s name for a more in-depth analysis, including 2011 projections!

Check out our 2011 big board (1-10) here.

Check out our 2011 big board (11-20) here.

Check out our 2011 big board (21-30) here.

31. Joe Mauer (C – Min)– Doesn’t need 25 HRs to be the top catcher; his three-year batting average (.340) is 42 points higher than any player at his position.

32. Victor Martinez (C – Det) – Only catcher to post 100-RBI season since 2004, and he’s done it three times. Leads backstops in HRs over the last seven seasons (129), and now bats in the same lineup as Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez.

33. Cliff Lee (SP – Phi) – Since 2007 minor-league stint, he has averaged 222 innings, 16 wins, 7.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9, 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP per season with four different MLB teams. And now he’s a No. 2 starter on a team with plenty of run support.

34. Nelson Cruz (OF – Tex) –  Has played in only 267 out of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons, yet he’s averaged 21 HRs, 13 steals and a .292 batting average per year. A change in his running style will hopefully pave the way for his first full season and a possible 30/20/.300 campaign.

35. Jason Heyward (OF – Atl) – Injuries have been a concern with him as well, but there’s no denying his talent. Sixth best walk rate in the majors (14.6 percent) last season as a 20-year-old, and appears primed to approach an eye-popping 100/25/100/15/.300 line in 2011.

36. Justin Upton (OF – Ari) – His 30/30 potential didn’t suddenly disappear. 23-year-old still has plenty of room to grow, and has reportedly taken on a “rigorous strengthening program” this offseason to solidify his health.

37. Josh Johnson (SP – Fla)– Since 2005, only five starters have an ERA lower than Johnson’s mark of 3.10 (min. 600 innings). Top-five among qualified starters last season in ERA, FIP, xFIP, HR/9, contact rate and swinging strike rate.

38. Ian Kinsler (2B – Tex)– Three-year averages (92 runs, 19 HRs, 67 RBI, 24 SB, .285 BA) are mind-boggling considering he’s missed a total of 118 games since 2008. Top-10 potential given a full season atop the Rangers’ lineup.

39. Andrew McCutchen (OF – Pit)– Improved plate discipline and recognition of breaking pitches last season are very encouraging. Poor man’s Carl Crawford should approach 100 runs, 20 HRs, 35 SB and a .300 BA in 2011.

40. Jon Lester (SP – Bos)– Has the ninth-best ERA (3.29) among starters who’ve logged 600 innings since 2008. Of the eight pitchers with a lower ERA during that time, only Lincecum has a better strikeout rate (10.25) than Lester (8.72).

The top 50 on our 2011 Big Board will be announced in the coming days as we continue our journey to rank the top 100 players!

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

As I noted last season, Baseball America once claimed “The term ‘five-tool prospect’ somehow doesn’t seem strong enough for (Justin) Upton.” Coming off a 26/20/.300 age-22 season in 2009, it appeared as though the junior Upton was prepared for fantasy stardom.

Upton’s 2010 campaign failed to impress, however, as the former No. 1 overall pick posted a 17/18/.273 line in just 133 games. Perhaps most discouraging was Upton’s alarmingly high strikeout rate of 30.7 percent, seventh worst in the majors. Likewise, his contact rate (74.3 percent, MLB average 80.7 percent) was 16th worst among qualified batters.  

Diamondbacks’ GM Kevin Towers was reportedly fielding offers for Upton this offseason, but a deal never surfaced. Looking forward to 2011, there are reasons to remain optimistic about Upton.

It’s important to remember that Upton is entering his age-23 season. Other young phenoms such as Carlos Gonzalez (25) and Andrew McCutchen (24) finally broke through last season after what seemed like several years of hype.

Also, Upton’s plus-power/speed talent didn’t suddenly disappear. The 30/30 potential is still there. Heck, he showed life at times last year, batting .312 with eight HRs, five steals and 25 RBI between June and July.

Further, FanGraphs’s Dave Cameron wrote up an interesting piece a while back detailing players since 1980 who have recorded at least 100 MLB at-bats by age 20 (Upton, of course, qualifies). 

The point was to highlight the careers of players whose talent ushered them to regular playing time in the majors before turning 20.

The results were encouraging. Of the previous 19 players listed, 10 have become All-Stars, three are no-doubt Hall of Famers, and two are working towards Hall of Fame status.

While this doesn’t guarantee anything, it should serve as a pleasant reminder to have patience with Upton.

Due to a lingering shoulder injury that flared up again last August, Upton missed all but four September games. He has reportedly taken on a “rigorous strengthening program” this offseason to solidify his health.

Given his first full season of more than 138 games this year, he may finally begin to approach elite standards.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez
• No. 33: Cliff Lee
• No. 34: Nelson Cruz
• No. 35: Jason Heyward

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Often, it is not the most talented player who ends up being the most valuable player for his respective team. A player making $1 million can be much more valuable than a player making $10 million if they produce similar results

A great example of this is Adrian Gonzalez of 2010. With the Padres, he was playing for a very low sum of money despite being among the league’s best first basemen. While Albert Pujols may have out-produced Gonzalez in 2010, he was far more costly. Thus, Gonzalez was more valuable to his team than Pujols.

Every team has at least one player who they know they are underpaying. In this article, I will examine the most underpaid player on each team. 

One important note is that players who are not yet arbitration eligible, i.e. Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, will not be included in this list. Also, I will be using the player’s 2011 salary, not the aggregate of his current contract. For example, Adrian Gonzalez will still be considered cheap, despite the fact that he will receive his fair share of money when the Red Sox release his contract. With that, let us begin. 

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Young players, whether they be mid-season call-ups or rookies who make the team out of spring training, tend to have a massive impact on their team’s success.

From players like Buster Posey and Jason Heyward to Neftali Feliz, more and more are young stars expected to produce immediately upon their arrival in the majors. 

Let’s take a look at who we can expect to have some of the biggest impacts on their team’s success in the 2011 season… 

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It’s not that Justin Upton had a bad season last year.

After all, he hit .273 with 17 HRs and 18 SBs. Those are good numbers, but not exactly what fantasy owners were expecting when they selected him in the early rounds last year.

He saw a regression in average (-0.27), runs (-11), HRs (-9), RBIs (-17) and SBs (-2).

While the dip was bad news to his owners last year, it’s good news for those looking to employ his services this year.

Some could be nervous that the decline runs in the family, as his brother B.J. fell off after his solid 2007 campaign.

Some could be bitter that he didn’t meet expectations last year. Some could just think he played over his head in 2009. There is some uncertainty there, but with averages of 21.5 HRs and 19 SBs the past two seasons, he remains an excellent outfielder option.

Upton got off to a rough start, hitting .213 in April. He also finished poorly, hitting .250 from August on. However, from May through July, he gave us a glimpse of what he is capable of when he’s on, hitting .299 with 13 HRs and 42 RBIs.

I like him because low-end he gives you a 20-20 season with the possibility for much more. Plus, you don’t have to risk your team batting average. He’s just a .272 career hitter, a number that has improved with Upton hitting .287 the past two seasons.

I currently have him as my 15th ranked outfielder (click to see OF rankings), but he has the potential to put up top-10 numbers.

Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Do you ever have one of those days where it doesn’t seem to matter what you do, you just somehow find a way to stick your foot in your mouth? And then you try to fix things and you make an even bigger mess out of stuff than if you had just let things alone? Unfortunately, that pretty much describes every day of my life but even more so it describes my day yesterday.

Judging from the web site analytics and my email in-box, there were many people who visited Diary of a Diehard yesterday and read my entry on the Justin Upton Meet-and-Greet event held at Chase Field last evening.

In that entry I lamented the fact that despite my best laid plans sending my two teenage daughters to Chase Field they were turned away. I further went on to describe how I felt that Upton had shortchanged the event by only staying for a minimum amount of time.

This is one of those subjects that polarize sports fans and give many an open forum to blast the selfishness of today’s player regardless of the sport or the person. The number of comments I received took me aback and I chose to remove most of them (sorry, editorial prerogative).

The article bothered me for several reasons. It put the Diamondbacks in a bad light and I hate doing that. I try to be an optimist as one reader reminded me. No matter what happens, there is always some positive that we can take away from the experience. I neglected to remember that.

Today I received a phone call from the Arizona Diamondbacks who wanted to talk to me about the event last night. The call was not a result of my being a long-time season ticket holder or because I have any special relationship with the team. I received the call because the Diamondbacks care about their fans.

It started off with an apology. They apologized for my daughters making the trip to Chase Field and missing out on the opportunity to meet Justin Upton. It’s funny how powerful the words “we’re sorry” can be.

They didn’t need to do that. Much of the blame was clearly on my shoulders. The event had a stated start time of 5:30 PM. Obviously the girls had not made it to the ballpark by that time. The team had every right to deliver that message but they didn’t.

Instead they empathized their disappointed fans. They explained how the event had taken place. Forty-five people arrived on time for the event and were able to attend. Justin Upton arrived early and spent an inordinate amount of time with each person making sure they got the proper attention.

When he had given each fan the attention they needed he waited to see if any other fans might show up. The Diamondbacks season ticket services group made the decision to end the event when it appeared no other fans would be arriving. Upton was willing to stay as long as necessary to make sure no one was left out.

Yesterday I painted Upton as a young player who cared little for the fans or the community. That was extremely unfair and extremely wrong. I want to take this opportunity to apologize to him and to the Arizona Diamondbacks for what I said.

I took two innocent events one in September and another last night and immediately jumped to the conclusion that he didn’t care. I didn’t even consider the possibility that the decisions may have been beyond his control.

It’s funny; I am old enough to be Justin’s father yet this young man has taught me a valuable life lesson. You shouldn’t be quick to judge someone and you should always give people the benefit of the doubt regardless of appearances.

To Mr. Upton and to the Arizona Diamondbacks, I am sorry I leapt to inaccurate conclusions and I apologize for suggesting in any way that either the player or the team did not care about the fans or the fan experience.

The phone call was a very humbling experience but one that I hope stays with me a very long time. Each of us needs to be reminded once in a while of how important it is to consider each other and how simple words can sometimes be the hardest things to manage.

Someday I hope to have the opportunity to meet Upton personally and tell him how much I appreciate his abilities not only on the baseball field but also his ability to teach me why it’s important to admit my mistakes. A discussion that will undoubtedly be met with a confused look and a motion to have security remove the crazy guy from section 132.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

At the conclusion of the final home game of the 2010 regular season, the Arizona Diamondbacks held a celebration for their season ticket holders on the playing surface at Chase Field. Season ticket holders had the opportunity to sign up and have their pictures taken with various players and coaches.

It was an overwhelming success after the 2009 season and season ticket holders I spoke to were looking forward to this event. With the home team in route to a 97-loss season, fans and team personnel were looking for anything positive to come out of the year.

As the event arrived I sent in my RSVP for the event and picked up the necessary wristband to attend. The wristbands were color coordinated by player/coach groups. My son Dakota and daughter Tiffany each selected a player they most admired to have their picture taken with.

After a long debate I finally choose right fielder Justin Upton. It’s not that I admire Upton, nor do I necessarily believe him to be the face of the franchise. I just think he is dealing with a lot of pressure from everyone’s expectations and thought it might be nice to have a photo taken and give him an encouraging word from an average fan.

For the better part of September leading up to the event Upton was injured and was not in the lineup for the Diamondbacks. He hurt his non-throwing shoulder while swinging a bat. Having gone through three shoulder surgeries myself I felt I was in a unique position to understand what he was going through.

On the day of the final game of the season Upton did not seem to be visible either before or during the game. After the conclusion when the Diamondbacks awarded the “Shirts off our D-backs,” Upton was once again absent.

There were grumblings throughout the stands from fans who were growing tired of Upton’s seeming lack of concern for the fans. His connection to the community seemed too staged and a result of the well working public relations teams instead of Upton actually caring to be part of the Phoenix area.

When the postgame celebration began fans holding Upton colored wristbands were told that he would not be attending. He chose instead to fly to Alabama to see the doctor about his shoulder.

At first I gave him the benefit of the doubt. After all, getting back onto the playing field is something every player should strive for. It became a little bit more difficult to explain why a player who had been out the entire month would choose that particular day to fly across the country to see the doctor…on a Sunday no less.

Diamondbacks officials were left to pick up the pieces. The season ticket holder services team did an admirable job of blocking the negative comments and took everyone’s name with a promise that at some point during the offseason a meet-and-greet event would be scheduled where fans would get an opportunity to meet Mr. Upton.

Exactly a week ago an email arrived from Mandi Howard, manager of season ticket services for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The message contained an appreciation of the fans’ patience and understanding for the Fun on the Field event.

The rescheduled meet-and-greet with Justin Upton had been rescheduled for December 14th at Chase Field from 5:30–6:30 PM on the Diamond Level of the ballpark. Free parking was being offered to fans attending the event. The email concluded with a request to RSVP by end of the day on December 8th if you planned to attend.

I had been looking forward to attending this. Unfortunately, the timing could not have been worse. I was previously scheduled to undergo stomach surgery on December 3rd but postponed that for a week so that I could attend the Diamondbacks Spring Training Select-a-Seat event.

I was still trying to explain that to the surgeon and my wife so the thoughts of moving the date another week to attend a meet-and-greet with Justin Upton was probably a long-shot at best. I still sent an RSVP for two spots thinking at a minimum my kids could have the opportunity.

As the day arrived I was still heavily medicated and in no condition to attend the event. My daughters did want to go so I sent an email to my season ticket representative to make sure that would be ok.

My daughters Tiffany and Whitney eagerly waited to hear whether they could attend. When we received the response from the team they jumped into the car and drove to Chase Field. They were worried they would not make it in time given the distance from where they were. I explained not to worry—the event was scheduled for an hour so even if they did not get there just as it began they still had time; or so I thought.

Sending two teenagers into downtown Phoenix during rush hour where neither was accustomed to driving was a bad idea to begin with but that wasn’t the worst part. They arrived at Chase Field a little before 6:00 PM.

They made their way to the parking garage and parked the car. They followed the instructions we were given but found the gates were locked. They searched around to find someone who could help them find their way.

After going through several people they were told the event was already over and Upton had left the stadium even before they got there. So while the girls had arrived well within the time stated in the communication we received, they were turned away.

No explanation was given as to why Upton left early or why the stated 60-minute event lasted less than 30 minutes. At first I considered that everyone who had sent an RSVP had been met and greeted but that was not the case since I had re-verified that my daughters would be attending less than an hour before they were turned away.

I can appreciate that Mr. Upton’s time is important. I can also understand that he probably has many more important things to do in his life rather than spend 60-minutes at a darkened baseball stadium two weeks before Christmas.

From my perspective this was a complete failure. I would like to hope this was not indicative of the level of interest Upton has of interacting with the Diamondbacks fanbase. The optimist in me wants to suggest that it was my fault for not somehow getting my kids down to the stadium just a little faster.

I want to give the Diamondbacks the benefit of the doubt that this was just an unfortunate turn of events. The team always seems to go out of its way to make the fan experience as enjoyable as possible. It is one of the things I admire most about the franchise. But tonight they took a serious hit from a public relations standpoint by two young fans who won’t be cheering on Uptown next season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Boston Red Sox effectively dominated the Winter Meetings, landing both Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. 

Their lineup is loaded, and have a deep rotation looking to have a bounce-back year in 2011.  The Yankees, meanwhile have stood steadfast, and have yet to make a significant move besides re-signing Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.

With the AL East’s balance of power currently shifted in Boston’s favor, the Yankees will no doubt strike back, resuming baseball’s Cold War.  Here are 10 possible moves the Yankees can make to turn back the tide:

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Originally, the Mariners were in the clear. Then, they weren’t.

A few days later, Justin Upton’s agents decided to set the record straight and let everyone know that their client’s contract does not bar a trade to Seattle.

Now the question yielded is should the Mariners make a run at him?

Those who lack the short memory of a good closer surely recall the Bill Bavasi era. Trade useful pieces of the future in exchange for trying to win now—the most referenced, of course, being the Erik Bedard fiasco. Send the farm and all our spare baseballs for an oft-injured pitcher.

It’s true that Bedard came with huge risk considering his injuries and time remaining on his contract. What we learned later was that the risk came without much potential for reward. Even if he had pitched 35 games in 2008 and 2009 at top level, his contributions would not have helped a flawed roster. Then, he probably takes off for a big payday.

Our consolation, even under that best case scenario? Draft pick compensation that now has to be developed to replace the near-major league ready talent we shipped out in the first place.

So should the Mariners dare history to repeat itself?

What would the price be to acquire Upton? The Diamondbacks don’t need to trade him, and they very well may not. They are willing to listen, though. Being in that position, you can almost certainly expect the price tag for the Mariners to start with Michael Pineda and one of Justin Smoak or Dustin Ackley.

Pineda is the top-ranked pitching prospect in the organization. Smoak was the prize piece in the Cliff Lee trade. Ackley was the No. 2 overall pick who rocketed through the minors.

Is that price too steep? Which of the position players would you be more willing to give up? Who replaces any of the three when you realize the system has nothing close in the organization at their respective positions? What do we do with Michael Saunders now?

These are all good questions, which may lead many fans to just say “no thanks” and prefer that the team continue to build on the current young foundation. Of course, we all still remember the dizziness after swallowing the Bedard pill.

This pill is quite different, though. Justin Upton is a 23-year-old budding star locked up for several more years at what could be a huge bargain. The risks with a position player are historically far less than those of a pitcher, so Pineda for Upton is a good swap. But you still have to add Smoak or Ackley.

Can the team survive the loss of two of those three? When payroll wiggle room arrives in 2012, your core of Felix Hernandez, Ichiro, Upton, Franklin Gutierrez and Smoak or Ackley gives you a solid foundation to start dipping into free agency. This could be a move to gain long-term value from a player who has already shown he can play at the highest level—and he might get even better.

This won’t end with the pleasant surprise that acquiring Gutierrez in the J.J. Putz deal did, as Upton is already on the map. However, I think we can all rest assured that Jack Zduriencik’s scouting skills will help him make the right decision.

The notoriously close-lipped front office won’t be giving us any hints, but with the winter meetings kicking up next week, keep your eyes and ears peeled. Jack will be going to work.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Though it was mostly Jason Heyward grabbing all the rookie headlines this season for Atlanta, Jonny Venters was the team’s true freshmen MVP. Often times, the players that fly under the radar and have the least amount of pressure put on them become the major contributes to their team.

For Atlanta, an organization with so much depth, some of the least known prospects often become the ones that most contribute to the big league club. Who are some candidates to be the Jonny Venters of 2011? Take a look inside, where likely at least one of these players will have a chance to state their case in the coming campaign.

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