Kuzul

The American League Cy Young award race is going to be tough to call. While there are some traditionally dominant arms like Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez or Jered Weaver in the discussion, there are plenty of other arms joining them.

In particular, David Price and Chris Sale are both having excellent seasons and could easily receive votes when the ballots are cast.

So, who has the upper hand right now?

It seems as if last year’s winner will be this year’s winner. Justin Verlander is currently 15-8 with a 2.74 ERA, 223 strikeouts, a .217 batting average against and a 1.06 WHIP.

In context, these numbers are even more impressive. He is tied for eighth in wins, second in ERA, second in strikeouts, third in batting average against and second in WHIP. None of the other pitchers I mentioned above have this type of across-the-board strength. Most of them excel in one area like Jered Weaver in his ability to keep people off base.

His weakest statistic seems to be his win total, but given all the success that he has had this season, part of that number was damaged from a lack of run support. The Detroit Tigers were underachieving at the start of the season, so there were times where Verlander pitched really well but couldn’t bring home the victory.

His first start of the year demonstrated that as he pitched eight shutout innings of two-hit baseball but received a no-decision against the Boston Red Sox. While he definitely has had some bad starts this year, he has also had plenty of great games that he was not rewarded for.

Overall, Verlander has the all-around package to win this award. While it definitely is not as obvious as it was last year, by almost any other standard he is having an excellent season.

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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The following countdown touts my best early guess of the top 20 starting pitchers heading into fantasy drafts for 2013.

(Stats compiled through Sept. 13.)

This off-the-cuff brainstorm may be rooted in hard numbers, but it’s also a soft measurement of where the market currently stands and where it’ll be in mid-to-late March.

For all we know, young guns like Dylan Bundy (Orioles), Jake Odorizzi (Royals), Matt Harvey (Mets), Gerrit Cole (Pirates), Trevor Bauer (Diamondbacks) or teen prodigy Jose Fernandez (Marlins) could somehow force their way into the next countdown, thanks to a stupendous spring.

But at this point, I prefer to lean on the following cast of savvy veterans, which includes a 23-year-old lefty who’s primed for a big jump next season.

Enjoy the show!

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After watching him help the Angels sweep the Red Sox earlier this week, and based on his entire body of work this season, it’s clear that Mike Trout is one of the most exciting young players in the majors. He may even be the American League MVP when all is said and done, but there is one thing I don’t think the 21-year-old phenom should be:

Rookie of the Year.

Technically, Trout is a rookie. As the MLB rules state, “A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

Trout makes the cut…barely. He played in 40 games (32 starts) during 2011, in which he had 123 at-bats. This may qualify someone for rookie status the next year, but it seems like an awful big sample set for me.

Forty games is nearly a quarter of the MLB schedule, and in Trout’s case, these were not just meaningless down-the-stretch contests. His first appearance came on July 8 against Seattle, and he wound up playing 14 games in July, eight in August, and 19 in September as the Angels battled for both an AL West title and a Wild Card spot. They got neither, but Trout (who hit .220 with five home runs and 16 RBI) got plenty of experience.

This year, of course, has been a different story. Trout has been with the Angels since late April and has torn up the league with an AL-best .336 average, 41 stolen bases, and 103 runs scored (along with 25 home runs) entering last night. Much hoopla was made when he became the first rookie to have both 25 homers and 40 steals during the Red Sox series, but he just doesn’t feel like a first-year guy to me.

He was an everyday player for Los Angeles during a good stretch of LAST season, and while he may seem like an entirely different performer this year, Trout is in fact the same guy who had already seen plenty of big-league pitching entering 2012.

To me, a true Rookie of the Year (ROY) winner is a guy who debuts the year he captures the award, or at most plays in 10 or 15 September games the previous season.

Baseball is the only one of the four major professional sports that has this type of shady rookie status. Football players, of course, go straight from college onto NFL rosters and have zero pro experience entering their first year. Ditto for hockey players, who enter the NHL from college or the minor league ranks. And while basketball players may have overseas professional experience, the first NBA games for every Rookie of the Year are played during his initial season in the league.

My 11-year-old son Jason had a very perceptive comment when I mentioned this discrepancy to him. “If Mike Trout is able to do this, what will keep managers from making sure young players don’t break the 130 at-bat limit so they can get better and older?”

I found no proof of this with Trout, who Angels manager Mike Scioscia played all game, every game down the stretch of 2011. It would have been interesting to see what might have happened had Trout gotten six more at-bats, of course.

Jason also had another funny premise: if a guy came up from the minors for 10 games a year for three years, would he still be considered a rookie going into his fourth season? According to the MLB rules above, he would. This seemed too funny to be plausible, but it happened…the 2008 NL ROY, Cubs catcher Geovany Soto, had played with Chicago for one game in 2005, 11 games in 2006, and 18 games in 2007. A fourth-year rookie!

I first started thinking about Trout’s freshman/sophomore status when Will Middlebrooks was shining for the Red Sox earlier this summer. A broken wrist derailed Middlebrooks in mid-August, and even if he had played out the string the chances are slim he would have put together stats like Trout.

But since Middlebrooks was a TRUE rookie whose 75 major games, 15 homers, and 54 RBI all came this season, one could argue (outside Los Angeles) that he is a more worthy Rookie of the Year winner than the guy who will get the award.

For some additional perspective, I looked back at AL and NL ROY winners from the past 10 seasons to see how they compare with Trout in pre-ROY experience. Soto was the only one I found with three MLB seasons under his belt, but one other player (Angel Berroa in 2003) had played shortstop for the Royals for a combined 35 games and 128 at-bats in 2001-2002. Talk about cutting it close to the 130 at-bat limit!

Most of the others fell into the more reasonable range of 15-20 pre-ROY games and 50-75 at-bats for position players and 5-15 games for pitchers. Six of the 20 awardees were “true” Rookies of the Year who saw their first MLB experience in their winning year: Chris Coughlin, Andrew Bailey, Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Dontrelle Willis and Eric Hinske. Honorable mentions go to 2006 winners Hanley Ramirez and Justin Verlander, who both played in just two MLB contests the previous season.

I think the system needs some revamping. Lower the pre-ROY maximum numbers to 20 games and/or 50 at-bats for position players, and 10 games and/or 30 innings for pitchers. This will ensure that September call-ups can still be considered rookies, but guys who played three months like Trout last year will be out of luck.

And what if Trout pulls off the double-win and captures both the Rookie of the Year and the MVP awards? He would be just the third man to achieve this feat, after Fred Lynn (in 1975) and Ichiro Suzuki (2001): two men who offer another contrast in rookies.

Lynn played in a reasonable 15 games in September of ’74, and while Suzuki was a “true” rookie in ’01 with regards to his MLB status, he did have nine seasons and more than 1,000 games in the Japanese professional leagues under his belt.

Now that’s another discussion altogether.  

Saul Wisnia lives less than seven miles from Fenway Park and works 300 yards from Yawkey Way. His latest book, Fenway Park: The Centennial, is available at http://amzn.to/qWjQRS, and his Fenway Reflections can be found athttp://saulwisnia.blogspot.com. He can be reached at saulwizz@gmail.com and @saulwizz. 

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Los Angeles Angels ace Jered Weaver is 15-2, and he leads the American League in ERA, WHIP, opponents’ batting average and various other categories.

In the minds of many, this makes him the automatic favorite to win the AL Cy Young award this season.

Those who have been keeping up with my weekly AL Cy Young rankings will know that I disagree.

Weaver’s been good, but assorted advanced stats suggest that Justin Verlander has been better. His Cy Young candidacy is further bolstered by the fact that he’s been a bigger workhorse than any pitcher in either league.

But the gap between Weaver and Verlander has never been huge. Truth be told, there are five leading candidates for the Cy Young at this moment in time, and any one of them could claim the top spot in the rankings in a given week.

To see where Weaver, Verlander and all the rest rank this week, just keep on reading.

Note: All stats are as of the start of play on Tuesday, August 14, and they come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Last season, there was little question that Justin Verlander was going to win the AL Cy Young Award. He won the AL pitching Triple Crown, leading the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts. Pitchers who do that tend to walk away with the hardware.

Verlander is once again in the middle of a tremendous season, but the AL Cy Young race isn’t nearly as cut-and-dry as it was last year; Verlander has some serious competition.

Jered Weaver is right in the thick of things. He leads the AL in wins with 15, and he also has the league’s top ERA and top WHIP. The no-hitter he pitched in May looms large on his Cy Young resume.

Felix Hernandez, the 2010 AL Cy Young winner, is also right in the thick of things. He’s among the league leaders in virtually every pitching category, and he’s only getting better and better as the season moves along.

Also in the thick of the race are Chris Sale and David Price, two of the best lefties in baseball.

Make no mistake about it, the chase for the AL Cy Young Award features a crowded field. Figuring out who’s leading the chase on a week to week basis is an exercise in frustration.

Nonetheless, it must be done. For your reading pleasure, here are this week’s AL Cy Young rankings.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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With the fantasy-trade deadlines coming up this week or next (I have four red-letter dates this Friday), it’s time for owners to make one last pitch for baseball’s elite categorical contributors.

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

These 50 starting pitchers, based on AccuScore projections (not mine), will register at least 55 strikeouts from this point forward (Aug. 7-Sept. 30):

Part I

1. CC Sabathia, Yankees—77
2. Justin Verlander, Tigers—75
3. Yu Darvish, Rangers—75
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies—72
5. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals—68
6. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals—68
7. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers—68
8. Lance Lynn, Cardinals—67
9. Roy Halladay, Phillies—67
10. James Shields, Rays—67
11. Felix Hernandez, Mariners—67
12. Cliff Lee, Phillies—67
13. Marco Estrada, Brewers—67
14. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers—67
15. Francisco Liriano, White Sox—66
16. Madison Bumgarner, Giants—65
17. Zack Greinke, Angels—65
18. Tim Lincecum, Giants—65
19. Matt Cain, Giants—65
20. Mat Latos, Reds—64
21. Jered Weaver, Angels—64
22. Jeff Samardzija, Cubs—63
23. David Price, Rays—63
24. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals—63
25. Erik Bedard, Pirates—63

Part II

26. Felix Doubront, Red Sox—63
27. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks—61
28. Max Scherzer, Tigers—61
29. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers—61
30. R.A. Dickey, Mets—60
31. Ryan Dempster, Rangers—60
32. Jake Peavy, White Sox—60
33. Josh Johnson, Marlins—60
34. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians—60
35. Jon Lester, Red Sox—59
36. C.J. Wilson, Angels—59
37. Chris Capuano, Dodgers—58
38. Bud Norris, Astros—58
39. Matt Harvey, Mets—58
40. Michael Fiers, Brewers—58
41. Josh Beckett, Red Sox—58
42. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays—57
43. Chris Sale, White Sox—57
44. James McDonald, Pirates—57
45. Drew Pomeranz, Rockies—57
46. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants—56
47. Jon Niese, Mets—56
48. Matt Moore, Rays—56
49. Edwin Jackson, Nationals—55
50. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees—55

Breakdown

• I’ll buy the “under” for CC Sabathia and 77 strikeouts. Since May 26, Sabathia (11-3, 3.53 ERA, 1.20 ERA, 133/34 K-BB) has averaged 6.8 strikeouts over 10 starts. So, if he should squeeze in another 10 outings before Sept. 30, he’ll have to improve upon his current pace of the last 13 weeks. On the positive side, Sabathia has four double-digit strikeout efforts for the season.
• Clayton Kershaw has 69 strikeouts since June 15, with six or more K’s in nine of the last 10 outings. And compared to Justin Verlander (who bedazzled the Yankees for 14 strikeouts on Monday night), Kershaw will likely enjoy one more start than the Tigers ace from this point forward. Bottom line: I’ll buy the “over” on Kershaw and 68 strikeouts.
• Stephen Strasburg (11.31), Max Scherzer (11.28), Yu Darvish (10.34) and Gio Gonzalez (10.02) are the only regular MLB starters to post K/9 ratios above 10 this season, and from a 30-day perspective, Scherzer, Strasburg, Darvish, Francisco Liriano, James Shields, Madison Bumgarner and David Price boast that honor. So naturally, they’re all good candidates for 60-plus strikeouts.
• Roy Halladay has posted respectable results in his last four games with Philly—1-1, a 4.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 21/3 K-BB ratio. But the punch-outs aren’t necessarily coming at an accelerated rate, likely a consequence of his recent shoulder woes and subsequent absence from the Phillies rotation for June and half of July.
• Noticeably absent from this list: A.J. Burnett, Dan Haren, Wandy Rodriguez, Vance Worley, Andrew Cashner, Johnny Cueto, Wei-Yin Chen, Jordan Zimmermann, Aaron Harang, Miguel Gonzalez, Zach McAllister, Chad Billingsley, Corey Kluber and Ricky Romero.
• For what it’s worth, AccuScore projects Reds closer Aroldis Chapman for 48 more strikeouts in just 27.4 innings. For July, Chapman had a 0.00 ERA and 0.56 WHIP. He was also a perfect 13-for-13 in save opportunities. Chapman’s K/9 ratio for July was a mind-blowing 19.5, easily his best effort of the season.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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Justin Verlander, ladies and gentleman. Justin “The Man” Verlander. 

Let us be that little birdie to tell you there are rampant rumors Kate Upton is sweet on the Detroit Tigers’ ace, and there is even photographic evidence of the claim. 

Busted Coverage sniffs out some fantastic pictures that allegedly feature supermodel Kate Upton getting rather close to arguably the best pitcher in the Majors. 

The website received a link to some photos from 98.7, Amp Radio. A listener apparently sent in pictures they took of the two as they partied at a local bar, Coyote Joe’s. 

As you can see, you need some imagination to see two people hooking up, but not much of one. These two, if they are indeed Verlander and Upton, are canoodling rather closely. 

The Detroit Free Press has the full story on the woman who we presume snapped off the pictures. Her name is Amanda Waynick, and she was celebrating her 25th birthday at the bar. 

That’s when she tried to get a picture with Verlander, only to have him decline. It seems he was rather light-hearted about it, though. 

She then gave the images to the radio station when she realized the gems she had on some of her party pictures. 

Of course, Verlander has been linked to his longtime girlfriend Emily Yuen, so we tread cautiously, because this may be much ado about nothing. 

Then again, it may be the starting American League pitcher in the 2012 MLB All-Star Game beginning a relationship with the “it” girl of the year.

The two are yet to comment on all the speculation, and there is no telling where they began their budding friendship. 

It may have been on the set of promo videos for MLB 2K12. If so, please remember not to neglect your video games. They may come in handy at some point in your life.

Follow me on Twitter for more juicy gossip. 

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Here are 10 under-26 prospects (in alphabetical order) who are tearing it up in the minor leagues.

Whether any of these talents gets promoted to the majors soon is unknown, but if their numbers are called sometime between late June and early September, be ready to scoop ’em up in 12- 14- or 16-team leagues.

Pitchers

SP Trevor Bauer, Reno Aces (Triple-A)
Age: 21
Parent Club: Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 Stats: 11-1, 2.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 104/42 K-BB
Skinny: There’s no time like the present in splurging for a Justin Verlander/Clayton Kershaw/Stephen Strasburg-esque prospect who’s been nearly unstoppable at every level of the minors. (Bauer was recently promoted to Triple-A Reno.) Given the Diamondbacks’ patient approach with super prospects (Justin Upton would be a rare exception), there’s no guarantee Bauer will see a major league ballpark before Sept. 1. However, he could easily force Arizona’s hand with a few more dominant starts in Reno.

SP Tony Cingrani, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (Double-A)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Cincinnati Reds
2012 Stats: 6-2, 1.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 91/17 K-BB
Skinny: Cingrani went 13 starts (and 60-plus innings) before allowing more than two runs in an outing. That alone should garner Cingrani (the Reds’ No. 10 prospect) prime consideration to be Cincinnati’s next big callup to the majors, among pitchers. At the very least, Cingrani may be evolving into the organization’s No. 1 pitching stud (fractionally ahead of Donnie Joseph/Robert Stephenson).

SP Jose Fernandez, Greensboro Grasshoppers (Single-A)
Age: 19
Parent Club: Miami Marlins
2012 Stats: 7-0, 1.59 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 99/18 K-BB
Skinny: In recent years, the Marlins haven’t been afraid to promote teenagers in the majors. Of course, Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria were hitters, but Fernandez, a pitcher in the mold of Felix Hernandez, might be too great a force to ignore during the pennant chase.

SP Danny Hultzen, Jackson Generals (Double-A)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Seattle Mariners
2012 Stats: 8-3, 1.19 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 79/32 K-BB
Skinny: It may be just a matter of time before Hultzen—the Mariners’ No. 1 prospect—punches a permanent ticket to Seattle. In his last seven appearances (spanning 44.2 innings), Hultzen has allowed a microscopic two runs (0.41 ERA in that span), while collecting six wins and 45 strikeouts. In the fantasy realm, Hultzen projects to be a high-end No. 2 starter in the majors.

SP Jake Odorizzi, Omaha Storm Chasers (Triple-A)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Kansas City Royals
2012 Stats: 8-2, 2.89 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 81/20 K-BB
Skinny: Odorizzi, who headlines the Royals’ next wave of big-time prospects to Kansas City, would be a welcome sight upon earning an MLB promotion. Since April 23 (covering 10 appearances), Odorizzi has surrendered just 15 runs (2.21 ERA in that span) while racking up seven wins and 74 strikeouts. In the fantasy realm, Odorizzi could evolve into Kansas City’s No. 1 pitcher throughout the decade.

Hitters

OF Jackie Bradley, Salem Red Sox (Single-A Advanced)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Boston Red Sox
2012 Stats: 3 HR, 34 RBI, 53 R, 16 SB, .359 BA, .480 OBP, 1.006 OPS
Skinny: According to The Roanoke (Va.) Times, Bradley will earn a promotion to Double-A ball this week, a nod to his consistent success over the last two months. But with outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford likely rejoining the Boston lineup in the next 30-45 days, Portland, Maine, may be Bradley’s last destination for the season. That aside, he could provide three-category production if given the chance to succeed in the majors.

C Travis d’Arnaud, Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)
Age: 23
Parent Club: Toronto Blue Jays
2012 Stats: 15 HR, 48 RBI, 42 R, 1 SB, .335 BA, .385 OBP, .987 OPS
Skinny: The Blue Jays already have a solid, young catcher in J.P. Arencibia (nine homers, 32 RBI). But the club can only stash a great prospect like d’Arnaud in the minors for so long. In the last two seasons, d’Arnaud (36 homers, 126 RBI, .319 batting) has separated himself from the pack of under-25 prospects. He’s also built up expectations to the point where he could be a top-10 catcher to open the 2013 season. But that distinction is based on him getting quality at-bats in the majors this season—hopefully in the next three weeks.

2B Jake Elmore, Reno Aces (Triple-A)
Age: 25
Parent Club: Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 Stats: 1 HR, 48 RBI, 60 R, 23 SB, .395 BA, .473 OBP, 1.007 OPS
Skinny: In the course of his 26-game hit streak (May 20-June 17), Elmore has 14 multiple-hit games, 15 steals and a whopping .420 batting average. Hopefully, it’ll be enough to motivate the Diamondbacks to give Elmore a look in the coming weeks, although Aaron Hill just hit for the cycle on June 18.

OF Wil Myers, Omaha Storm Chasers (Triple-A)
Age: 21
Parent Club: Kansas City Royals
2012 Stats: 24 HR, 61 RBI, 59 R, 5 SB, .337 BA, .408 OBP, 1.127 OPS
Skinny: Check out this run of statistical success from May 31-June 17: In that span, Myers notched eight homers, 18 RBI, 23 runs and batted at a .358 clip. As hitters go, Myers could be Kansas City’s next big target to burst onto the scene. As fantasy leagues go, there’s a chance Myers will have outfield and catcher eligibility whenever he breaks through to the bigs. If that’s the case, he’ll definitely be worth rostering in 16-team leagues.

1B Anthony Rizzo, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Chicago Cubs
2012 Stats: 23 HR, 59 RBI, 46 R, 2 SB, .364 BA, .426 OBP, 1.170 OPS
Skinny: Of the prospects listed here, Rizzo is the odds-on favorite to garner the next big-league promotion. In fact, the Cubs recently placed first baseman Bryan LaHair in the outfield, a move that could precipitate Rizzo’s permanent relocation to Chicago in the coming days or weeks.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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The Los Angeles Angels signed Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson on the exact same day this past offseason in a stunning turn of events that generated headlines for weeks.

Between the two of them, Pujols got all the attention at the time. He was the true superstar, and it was clearly going to be him who would lead the Angels back to the top of the AL West, and maybe to the World Series too.

Yet here we are nearly three months into the 2012 regular season, and Wilson has been the better signing of the two.

Like, by far.

He hasn’t gotten the attention he deserves, but Wilson is putting together one heck of a season. He currently has the best ERA in the American League, and he hasn’t given up more than one earned run in a start since the middle of May.

Wilson has steadily been moving up in my weekly AL Cy Young award rankings, and he’s reached a new high this week. 

Here’s how the top five is looking right now.

Note: Feel free to check out last week’s rankings.

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The New York Yankees have some pretty bad contracts on their hands these days. Alex Rodriguez isn’t coming close to earning his $30 million salary, Mark Teixeira isn’t worth his $23 million fee and even Derek Jeter is overpaid at close to $16 million.

Thank goodness for CC Sabathia. The Yankees are paying him over $24 million this season, but Sabathia is somehow managing to give them their money’s worth.

That’s been the case ever since Sabathia first suited up in pinstripes in 2009. He’s been everything the Yankees could have asked for, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down despite the fact he has over a decade of big league experience under his belt and nearly 2,500 innings on his arm.

Though he’s had to battle more than he’s used to, Sabathia is once again having a fine season for the Yankees. He’s pitched well recently, to boot, and he now finds himself high in the running for the American League Cy Young award.

Here are this week’s rankings.

Note: Feel free to check out last week’s rankings.

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