Kuzul

After a thrilling series with the Cleveland Indians, the Kansas City Royals traveled to Arlington to take on the Texas Rangers in a three-game series. This is the beginning of a six-game road trip that will end in Cleveland next week.

Game 1 has Jeff Francis on the mound for the boys in blue taking on Derek Holland for the Rangers.

This is just one of the games that Royals fans would like to forget. At least the Royals didn’t cave after being dug into a five-run hole. They fought back but were unfortunately bested by the power hitters of the Texas Rangers, who pounded out five home runs in the game.

This was Francis’ worst game of the season by far, giving up nine hits and five earned runs in four innings. He picked up the loss, making his record for the season 0-2.

It was nice to see Brayan Pena behind the plate again and showing off some power with a three-run home run in the fourth inning to tie the game up.

The Royals were simply over powered in Game 1, and they needed to find a way to shut down the Rangers’ bats in the second game.

Well, they did that. The Royals only allowed three runs scored, all earned from Kyle Davies (1-2), who pitched six innings and gave up four hits. Tim Collins and Louis Coleman combined for two innings of scoreless work.

In the spirit of Easter, Kila Ka’aihue performed a miracle of his own, actually hitting the ball. His solo home run shot put the Royals on the scoreboard in the seventh inning, but it was all the Royals would get. Squandered opportunities in the late innings kept the Royals from mounting a comeback, which led to Texas picking up the win 3-1.

This loss clinched the Royals first series loss of the season. The good thing is that the Royals were the last team to lose a series, which is definitely a difference than previous seasons. Alex Gordon also advanced his hitting streak to 17 games with a single first inning.

Looking to avoid a sweep, the Royals sent out their stellar lefty, Bruce Chen, to take on C.J Wilson in the Easter Sunday matchup.

Unfortunately, not even the unbeaten Chen could quiet the Rangers’ bats as the Royals fell 8-7 as Texas completed the three game sweep.

Chen gave up six runs on seven hits in four-and-a-third innings pitched. He only struck out two batters. Jeffress, Wood, Collins and Crow combined for the other three-and-two-third innings, with Jeffress giving up the other two runs.

The Royals made it interesting at least. Down 8-4 in the top of the ninth with two outs and two on, Mike Aviles blasted his second home run of the game, third of the season to pull the Royals to within one. Unfortunately, after drawing a full count, Melky Cabrera grounded out weakly to the shortstop to end the game.

In positive news, Alex Gordon extended his hitting streak to 18 games, which is now tied for tenth best in Royals history.  The record is George Brett’s 30-game hitting streak, achieved back in 1980.

The Royals, now 12-10, are still only 1.5 games back of Cleveland, thanks to some excellent play from Minnesota.  Detroit, however, has caught up and now ties the Royals for second place with a 12-10 record of their own.

The Royals will travel to first place Cleveland for a three-game series with the Indians, starting on Tuesday. Hopefully, the Royals will take advantage of the off day to rid their minds of the sweep and get mentally prepared to take over first place.

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In recent memory, we’ve always heard about how the AL East is Major League Baseball’s toughest division, with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays beating up on each other, along with the rest of the American League.

Some people make a case for the NL East, where the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves have a stronghold, combined with an over-acheiving Florida Marlins squad and an even more under-acheiving New York Mets team.

It’s easy to say one division is better than the other based on records alone, so I had an idea: What if we take the best player at each position, from each division and create separate “All-Star” teams?  Which division would have the most talented squad?

That’s exactly what we are going to do in hopes we can finally come to a realization of which division is MLB’s best.  You might be surprised at how good (or bad) some of the teams end up being.

The selection process is simple: It will be the best player at each position today. It won’t be based on future potential, and it won’t be based on a player having a monster season five years ago. 

This will be a seven part series over the next two weeks: one part for each of baseball’s six divisions, followed by a summary piece that will hopefully allow us to figure out and debate which division really is MLB’s best.

We begin with the AL Central.

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KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Last Year: 67-95, fifth in AL Central 

Manager: Ned Yost

PROJECTED LINEUP 

C: Jason Kendall (R) (will start season on DL)

DH/1B: Kila Ka’aihue (L)

1B/DH: Billy Butler (R)

2B: Chris Getz (L)

3B: Mike Aviles (R)

SS: Alcides Escobar (R)

LF: Alex Gordon (L)

CF: Melky Cabrera (S)

RF: Jeff Francoeur (R)

During the 2010 season, the Royals were second in baseball in terms of batting average. However, the offense had trouble scoring by the lack of power (19th in SLG) and the average rate of getting on base overall (14th in OBP).

Billy Butler is the Royals’ best hitter. Butler will hit over .300, but his power declined over last year. He did cut his strikeouts by 20 and increase his BB total slightly. I expect close to 20 home runs, a .390 OBP and a .480 SLG line for Butler.

Kila Ka’aihue will provide the power in the KC lineup. He has never had more than 200 big-league at-bats in a season but always had great power numbers and BB totals in the minors. I expect a little more than 20 home runs and a stat line of .250/.360/.460.

Chris Getz provides little production at 2B. He will hit .260 with two home runs and will probably lose his job to Mike Moustakas (Mike Aviles will move back to 2B).

Alcides Escobar had a bad rookie year for the Brewers in 2010, but I expect him to rebound and provide some speed in the lineup. Projected line: .275/.330/.370 and five home runs. Aviles, with his projected eight to 12 home runs and .290/.250/.415, plays better at 2B.  

Jason Kendall provides little offensive value at the catcher position with no power and a below-average OBP.

Alex Gordon may be the most important player in the lineup if the Royals are to exceed expectations. A former No. 2 draft pick, Gordon has really struggled since his debut in 2007. He has never hit above .260 or hit more than 16 home runs. I don’t think Gordon will be the George Brett-type player many envisioned, but he might be able to be a successful LF for a while. Projected line: .265/.360/.465 with 20 home runs.

Melky Cabrera will never be anything more than a fourth outfielder on a good team, and Jeff Francoeur hasn’t put up since 2007. The Royals need to upgrade in the OF if they are to improve in the future. 

Looking at the advanced fielding stats, the Royals were the third-worst defensive team in baseball and had the least range (Royals UZR was -44.5). The infield defense should dramatically improve with the acquisition of Alcides Escobar. Escobar is one of the more athletic SS in baseball, and he will be a major improvement over the defensively impaired Yuniesky Betancourt.

Billy Butler and Kila Ka’aihue will play 1B. Ka’aihue is the better defensive player, while Butler is considered below average.

Mike Aviles had a rough year defensively at 2B, but that had a lot to do with his injured throwing elbow that required Tommy John surgery. He has never played 3B on a regular basis.

Chris Getz is considered average at 2B. Jason Kendall is a veteran and calls a good game behind the plate, but his overall skills are slightly below average. Melky Cabrera had an awful 2010 in CF for the Braves. He has lost some weight this year, and I believe he will play closer to the average range he showed with the Yankees. Jeff Francoeur and Alex Gordon will provide very good defense in the corners.

BENCH

OF: Mitch Maier (L)

IF: Wilson Betemit (S)

OF: Jarrod Dyson (L)

C: Bryan Pena (S)

C: Matt Treanor (R)

STARTING ROTATION

RHP Luke Hochevar  

LHP Jeff Francis 

RHP Kyle Davies 

LHP Bruce Chen  

RHP Vin Mazzaro (starts season in minors until fifth starter needed in mid-April)

After the Zack Greinke trade became official, the Royals were left without a true ace to lead the starting rotation. All signs point to Luke Hochevar taking the ball Opening Day.

Hochevar, a former No. 1 overall pick in 2006, throws a 93 mph fastball with some sink. He possesses a vast repertoire that includes a cutter, slider, changeup and curveball. The key with Hochevar, as it is with most pitchers, is fastball command. With improved command and secondary pitch variety, Hochevar could be poised to that show he is the ace of the Royals rotation.

Jeff Francis was a low-cost signing for GM Dayton Moore, and Francis might be able to shore up the Royals rotation. Francis came back from shoulder surgery last year and showed some rust. He did post a 5.00 ERA, but he showed good command and showed fastball velocity (87.2 MPH) that he has missed since 2006.

I see Francis returning to the form he showed when he helped take the Rockies to the World Series in 2007. A 4.10 ERA, 6.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 should be within his 2011 range. 

After a good 2008, many have been predicting Kyle Davies to be a breakout candidate for the Royals. Instead, Davies has disappointed with average strikeout rates and poor control. At this point I think Davies is what he has shown in the last few years, and I don’t expect much improvement. Expect a high 4.80 ERA, 6.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9.

Bruce Chen, Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan will be battling for the last two spots in the rotation. Mazzaro has the highest upside of the three. He throws a low 90s fastball, a very good slider, a good changeup and a respectable curveball. Mazzaro’s fastball is a little too straight, which accounts for the high number of home runs allowed.

Bruce Chen pitched well for the Royals in 2010 but was fortunate to post the numbers he did. Chen is a soft-tossing fly-ball pitcher who benefited from a low BABIP and a high Left on Base percentage. Like the rest of the Royals staff, he averages six K/9 and has iffy control. Consensus is that Chen takes a step back this year.

O’Sullivan, who relies on a 90 MPH fastball and good offspeed stuff, does not strike out many and has iffy control. He does have some options, which makes him the likeliest candidate to be sent down.

BULLPEN

RHP Joakim Soria (Closer)

RHP Robinson Tejeda

RHP Aaron Crow 

RHP Jeremy Jeffress 

LHP Tim Collins 

RHP Kanekoa Texeira

RHP Nathan Adcock

RHP Sean O’Sullivan

The Royals have one of the top closers in the game anchoring the bullpen. Joakim Soria uses four above-average pitches, and I am surprised the Royals have never attempted to make him a starter. He should have another very good year, but he might be on another team by the end of the season. With the Royals rebuilding, other teams will be calling the Royals for Soria during the middle of the season.

Robinson Tejeda might be the best of the rest. He employs a 93-95 MPH fastball plus a good slider and changeup. His control is iffy, but he will put up very good K numbers.

The rest of the bullpen is full of rookies. There isn’t a set LHP to come out of the pen for the Royals, so I figure Tim Collins has a very good shot at making this team. He was acquired from the Braves in the Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel deal. Collins has put up great strikeout rates in the minors, which should be enough for the Royals to give Collins serious consideration.

Kanekoa Texeira uses a moving 90 MPH fastball with iffy control and has posted a below-average strikeout rate (4.84). Jeremy Jeffress could surprise this season; he throws 95 mph with a good curveball.

O’Sullivan will be the long reliever in the pen. He features an 89-92 mph fastball with a good curveball and changeup. Again, he does have some options, which makes him the likeliest candidate to be sent down when Mazzaro comes back.

I don’t know much about Adcock other than he was a Rule 5 pick who has never been above Single-A, and Crow was a starter for the Royals in Double-A.

BREAKOUT PLAYER: Luke Hochevar 

There isn’t much statistical evidence to prove he will have a breakout year, but I am going on the fact that he took some small steps in 2010 plus the evolution of a young pitcher. 2011 just might be the year he puts it all together. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH: 3B Mike Moustakas (L)

Watch out for Mike Moustakas. He was the second overall pick in the 2007 draft after David Price, and I think he will eventually be called up in May to take over the 3B job (very similar to Evan Longoria in 2007). He has great power and put up .322/.369/.630 in the minors last year. The only player standing in his way is Wilson Betemit. I think his power will translate right away to the majors, and he will be a rookie to watch.

PROJECTED FINISH: Fourth in AL Central

The Royals have been maligned for the last two decades. In addition, GM Dayton Moore has gotten some bad press with some acquisitions (Yuniesky Betancourt) and what seems to be a disregard for advanced statistics. With that said, everyone in baseball seems to agree that he has stockpiled the best farm system in baseball.

The Royals may not have a very good year in 2011, but they have the talent to become competitive in the future, much like the recent surge of the Tampa Bay Rays. The 2011 team has enough talent to keep them out of the cellar for this year and hopefully will start an upward trend for the KC franchise.

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Kansas City Royals (2010 record: 67-95)

Kansas City is one more year away from beginning their slow, inexorable climb up the standings. While Royals fans have heard similar promises for years, their patience is finally (mercifully) about to pay off. GM Dayton Moore and his front office staff have developed a farm system that is rated tops in the game – stocked with prospects who are expected to make a significant impact in the major leagues within the next two or three years. They will start to feed those prospects to the parent club in full force this year.

In anticipation of the impending influx of talent from the minors, Moore & Company have stocked the club’s roster with journeymen and retreads… guys who are little more than place-holders until the minor leaguers arrive, and who will be expendable at that point in time. The roster is due for a substantial overhaul in the next two seasons, with Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Will Myers and several pitchers (notably Jeremy Jeffress, John Lamb, Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi) due to join the major league club.

The Royals are on the brink of credibility, KC fans, but you’ll have to endure one more year of struggles before hitting paydirt.

Notable additions: OF Melky Cabrera, OF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, 3B Pedro Feliz, LHP Jeff Francis, OF Jeff Francoeur, RHP Jeremy Jeffress

Notable subtractions: SP Brian Bannister, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF David DeJesus, RHP Zack Greinke

The offense

Catcher: Brayan Pena

Infield: Kila Ka’aihue (1B), Chris Getz (2B), Alcides Escobar (SS) and Mike Aviles (3B)

Outfield: Alex Gordon (LF), Melky Cabrera (CF) and Jeff Francoeur (RF)

Designated Hitter: Billy Butler

Butler is the undisputed leader of the offense – at just 24 years of age – which both speaks highly of him and underscores the plight of an otherwise punch-less offense. He is one of better hitters in the game, yet doesn’t qualify as a true power hitter. Last year, he set career highs in BA, OBP and OPS, yet he was still perceived as having underachieved due to the fact he hit only 15 home runs.

Once upon a time, Alex Gordon was thought to be the future of the Royals franchise. He was named the College Player of the Year in 2005 and Minor League Player of the Year in 2006, but somewhere between Omaha and Kansas City his power was short-circuited. He was moved from third base to left field last year, but he has failed to demonstrate the productive capacity needed from a corner outfielder. He could be on his way out of KC before long.

Similarly, Francoeur was once considered the future of the Atlanta Braves franchise. He was the organization’s top prospect in 2004 and thought to have a tremendous career on the horizon… but his overall production hasn’t matched his potential. He hit 29 HR in his first full season in the big leagues (’06) and won a Gold Glove the following year, but his career has been on a downward spiral since. He was shipped to the NY Mets in 2009 and then traded to the Texas Rangers in August of last year. It seems unlikely his career will suddenly revive itself in Kansas City.

Melky Cabrera enjoyed a career year in the New Yankee Stadium softball field back in 2009, taking advantage of its cozy dimensions to post a respectable OPS. But after being cast out of the Bronx, he has regressed to a rather poor skill set. He will begin the 2011 season as the starter in center field, but it is likely Lorenzo Cain will take over by June 1st – at the latest.

Around the infield, four younger ballplayers will vie to have substantial roles with the team once the top minor league prospects start arriving. Ka’aihue will undoubtedly be displaced by Eric Hosmer at first base, but it’s possible he’ll provide more power than Butler – forcing the front office to make a hard decision between the two. Mike Aviles will start the year at third base, but he will soon be moved off the hot corner by Mike Moustakas no later than mid-season. He and Chris Getz will spend April, May and June trying to lay claim to the second base job after Moose’s arrival.

Alcides Escobar was acquired in the same deal that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee. He was long on glove and short on bat last year as a rookie. His minor league stats suggest he will be a productive shortstop in the major leagues… with the departure of Yuniesky Betancourt, the job is his for the immediate future.

Brayan Pena will hold down the primary responsibilities behind the plate until veteran Jason Kendall returns from shoulder surgery in mid-to-late-May. Pena should produce nicely with the increased playing time he will receive while Kendall recovers.

The pitching staff

Rotation: RHP Luke Hochevar, LHP Jeff Francis, LHP Bruce Chen, RHP Kyle Davies and RHP Vin Mazzaro

Closer: RHP Joakim Soria

The staff won’t be especially good in 2011, but with the arrivals of Lamb, Montgomery and Odorizzi (Milwaukee’s stop prospect prior to the Greinke deal) the rotation is on the verge of becoming formidible.

With the trade of Greinke, Hochevar will assume the role of staff ace – at least until the young guns make their way to KC. The big right-hander has been a BIG disappointment since being selected with the No. 1 overall pick in 2006, but his skill set shows marginal growth – so there is some hope he could develop into a consistent performer at the back of the rotation. That said, his strand rate continues at well below-average – a factor that now seems to be a chronic condition, not just bad luck.

Francis won 17 games for Colorado when the Rockies went to the World Series in 2001, but he has battled an assortment of injuries over the last three years. He has been pretty good when he has been healthy – compiling a nice strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.5 and an improving ground ball rate (47%).

Mazzaro could become the second-best performer on this staff pending the arrival of the young guns. His fate in 2011 and beyond will be determined by how he transitions from the relatively spacious playing field of Oakland Coliseum to the smaller area of Kaufman Stadium. He has a friendly ground ball to fly ball ratio – so the ballpark factor shouldn’t exert a dramatic impact on his performance (unless he has the same kind of bad luck he had last year, when his home run rate (HR/fb) was 12%).

Chen led the ballclub by recording 12 wins last year, but his peripherals clearly disclose he was the beneficiary of good luck as opposed to the owner of an outstanding skill set. His K-BB ratio is less than 2.0 – my minimum standard for an effective starting pitcher and well-below my desired threshold of 2.5. He walks too many batter (3.5 / 9 IP) and surrenders far too many fly balls for a pitcher who issues so many bases on balls.

Davies is a right-handed version of Chen. He has a substandard K-BB ratio, largely due to the fact he walks too many hitters. While his ground ball to fly ball ratio is friendlier, he tends to allow a higher than league-average home run rate – a fact which can be very dangerous for a pitcher who issues four walks for every nine innings pitched.

Soria recorded 43 saves in 46 save opportunities last year and has cemented himself as one of the premier closers in the game. He regularly posts a K-BB ratio in excess of 9.0 and benefited from better control in 2010 (2.2 BB / 9 IP) than he had previously in his career. He will almost certainly produce another 40+ save season, with an ERA around 2.00 and a WHIP in the neighborhood of 1.00 – 1.10. Behind Soria, the bullpen has been brutal for the last several years, but that could change in 2011. He could have improved support as the Royals have some young power arms on the verge of breaking through at the big league level. RHP Jeremy Jeffress, acquired in the Greinke deal, may be the heir apparent to Soria as closer. Lefty Tim Collins is a fire-baller who has been compared to Billy Wagner. Otherwise, RHP Robinson Tejeda is the best of a marginal collection of veteran relievers.

Prediction for 2011: Fourth place (75-87)

The Royals will be better this year and should improve as the progresses as some of the prospects make their way to the parent club. By mid-season, Moustakas will be playing third base and Hosmer c-o-u-l-d be stationed at first base – though his promotion that early is less certain due to the presence of hard-hitting Ka’aihue in the Royals lineup. In the second half of the season, pitching prospects like Lamb and Montgomery (and even Danny Duffy) could force their way onto a pitching staff that will be devoid of stars.

Top Five Prospects

1. Mike Moustakas, 3B
2. Wil Myers, C/LF
3. Eric Hosmer, 1B
4. Mike Montgomery, RHP
5. John Lamb, LHP

Depending on which publication you read, the top three on this list are interchangeable, but my preference is Moustakas. Myers is still a ways away from The Show and has to endure a position switch to the outfield, while Hosmer may be blocked by Ka’aihue for the next year or two. Meanwhile, Moustakas’ road to Kansas City is clear, and while the organization appears committed to giving him another couple of months in Triple-A, he will be in the big leagues by the all-star break. He was the Royals first-round pick (No. 2 overall) in the 2007 draft. He was outstanding in his first full year of professional ball in 2008, but struggled quite a bit the following year after making the jump to High-A. Any worries about his potential were cast aside last year as he bludgeoned Double-A pitchers to the tune of .347/.413/.687 and then barely missed a beat after his promotion to Triple-A Omaha, posting an impressive .293/.314/564 line in 52 games.

He has become more selective at the plate, allowing himself to consistently work better pitch counts where he can exert his plus-power on the baseball. He generates exceptional bat speed and can hit the ball out of the park to any field. Defensively, he continues to be a work in progress, as his footwork and mechanics are erratic, but he has good hands and a strong arm… his deficiencies are nothing that a lot of hard work can’t correct. He will prove to be everything Alex Gordon wasn’t – he is the Royals 3B-of-the-future.

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It was no secret that Zack Greinke wanted out of Kansas City. Speculation arose of where he’d be traded to, if traded at all.

Would it be the New York Yankees?

Would it be the Philadelphia Phillies?

Or would he just be forced to stay put in Kansas City?

In the end he ended up in Milwaukee and is now a Brewer.

The Kansas City Royals went 67-95 last season. Greinke went 10-14 and at 4.17, he had his third highest ERA in his seven years in the big leagues.

Greinke was outstanding 2008 and 2009 season, winning the AL Cy Young in 2009. 

Of course, you can’t judge Greinke by his Win/Loss statistics. Getting run support from the Kansas City Royals is not something that comes often for any pitcher. 

We’ve seen flashes of greatness from some of the Royals this spring training.

It is clear to see that the Royals and Manager Ned Yost have already moved on from Greinke and are focusing on an aggressive style of play and a team mentality.

Without Greinke, the Royals don’t have one of those players that stands out from the rest.

They don’t really have a face for their organization anymore.

One could argue that any veteran presence on the team will ultimately become the face of the franchise, such as Jeff Franceour. 

The Royals may not have their face anymore with the departure of Greinke, but in the long run, the Royals will be better off.

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Last week ,we went over Logan Morrison (here).

This week, we take a look at Mike Aviles of the Kansas City Royals.

Aviles burst onto the scene in 2008 as a 27 year old, spending most of his time at SS for the Royals. In his 419 partial season at-bats, he hit .325/68/10/51/8 and was tagged as a potential breakout player for the 2009 season.

Unfortunately, 2009 saw Aviles undergo Tommy John surgery after just 36 games.

He entered 2010 as a question mark, but picked right back up where he left off in May of ’09, going .304/63/8/32/14 in 424 at-bats.

Without a poor June, he had a .323 average, which was similar to what he did over the course of 2008.

Even after missing a year, Aviles was pretty much the same player he was before the injury. Of course, he stole six more bases but knocked in 19 fewer runs.

This being the “September Stars” Series, let’s now examine what Mike Aviles did last September to warrant his selection this week.

In 24 games, Aviles went .357/20/6/14/6 to top off one of his best months statistically as a pro. In that time, he spent most of his time in the two-hole and benefited from no one being on base in front of him so he could begin to rack up the steals. 

That explains his increase in runs and steals, but what about the power surge?

Aviles’ fly-ball percentage actually dipped in that time, so the remedy? The Cleveland Indians’ pitching.

They served up four of his six homers that month (Oakland gave up the other two and not one of the six pitchers was a Cy Young hopeful).

When looking at his GB/FB/LD ratios over that final month, he had a spike in the number of line drives he hit, which was more in line with his 2008 season, when he hit 27 doubles compared to the 16 he had all of last year. Of those 16 doubles, five of them came in September.

When you extrapolate that September, his doubles were much in line with his 2008 season.

As the season wound down, Aviles’ GB/FB/LD percentages began to even out to his 2008 percentages. What does this mean for 2011?

In my opinion, Aviles will put up similar doubles numbers, but his power will not extrapolate at six a month to equal 36 for 2011.

This year, he’s slated to lead off, which means his number of steals should continue to climb, as he has shown the ability to run. His walk percentage has increased while his strikeout percentage has decreased, which bodes well for setting the table for the team with the second-best team batting average in all of baseball last year (.274).

His BABIP last year was .327, down from his .357 in 2008, so his batting average has some upside.

If Mike Aviles is eligible at SS in your league, he is a late-round gem. If not, remain patient, as his healing elbow could get him some time at SS this season.

In 2010, he batted .320 with the bases empty and .404 with none on and none out, which he’ll be doing at least once a game this season.

My 2011 Mike Aviles Projection (Ceiling): .325/100/15/50/25.

Those stats would’ve made Aviles the No. 3 SS last season and the No. 4 2B. “That’s gold, Jerry!”

Aviles is currently 10-for-20 this spring with nine runs and four steals.

Our fifth 2011 Nomination coming up: Daniel Hudson.

Previous “September Stars” include Logan Morrison, Ryan Raburn, Drew Stubbs and Jose Bautista.

Mike is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of The 4th and Home Show on Blog Talk Radio.

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Losing. 

It’s what has been expected of the Kansas City Royals. 

But Ned Yost wants his players to make mistakes in spring training and learn from them.   

The Royals have not had a winning season since 2003, when they finished 83-79, good enough for third place in the AL Central Division.

Since then, the Royals have fallen short of .500 every year. 

It took a Cy Young Award winning performance from Zack Greinke in 2008 to get the Royals the closest to .500 they have been in seven years and even then, they finished 75-87 to put them in fourth place in the division.

Almost two weeks into spring training, the Kansas City Royals are 7-3, second in the Cactus League and first among all AL teams. This team of young talent has been playing hard, fierce and with a winning mindset. Ned Yost wants them to playing aggressive and wants them “running the bases like mad men,” as he put it. 

No doubt about it, they are. 

There’s a lot to be excited about this year for the Royals. Even with the departure of Greinke, who admitted toward the end of his time in Kansas City that it was hard for him to get motivated to pitch for a losing team, this season’s starting pitching staff will be something to keep an eye on.

Especially Luke Hochevar, who will most likely get the nod as the Royals No. 1. In his last outing, which came against the White Sox, Hochevar threw three innings, giving up one run on three hits to secure the win. 

It wasn’t the expected battle against Mark Buehrle that some might have thought it would be. Buehrle game up five runs on nine hits in three innings against the dominating Royals’ bats. 

Is this any indication of what Royals fans can expect in the regular season? It’s still early in spring training, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but this early success is definitely a good sign. 

If nothing else, the Royals are becoming one of those teams that is fun to watch, regardless of whether you’re a Royals fan or not.

How will the Royals shape up against the AL Central?

Since that winning season in 2003, in which they finished third in the AL Central, the Royals have not placed better than fourth, which they only did twice (2008 and 2009). 

So how will the Royals fair in 2011? 

The AL Central may not be the best division in baseball, but it is certainly one of the most competitive. There is really no front-runner in the Central this year, though the Minnesota Twins have to be the favorite to win the division, with the White Sox a close second, especially after the addition of Adam Dunn in the offseason.

The Royals have a realistic shot at third place this season. Detroit and Cleveland have weak teams, and Kansas City should be able to pick up a hefty amount of wins against them both, hopefully winning each season series. 

But can the Royals do better than third place? 

They can if they stay healthy and carry their spring training success into the regular season. 

Both Chicago and Minnesota are very strong teams and will easily reach 80 wins this season. Though the Royals lost their best pitcher, it’s as though they have also lost a huge, unmotivated weight. 

That may just be what this team needed to move forward.

The Royals have the best farm system in Major League Baseball. With youngsters like Kila Ka’aihue and Mike Moustakas (who both have what it takes to play at the major league level), along with a veteran presence in Jeff Francoeur, the Royals are a promising team. 

Some may say the Win/Loss column and stats don’t matter in spring training, but those stats can be used as a measurement of progress and confidence. The Royals just need to fight through growing pains and mistakes. 

That’s what they hope to accomplish in spring training. 

By the time the regular season comes around, this Royals team should be excited, confident and have a winning attitude. Manager Ned Yost has this team on the right track to do just that. 

Third place in the AL Central should be easy enough, but second place may not be that much of a stretch.

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I want everyone to take a deep breath. What I am about to say is nothing short of shocking, mind-bending and literally unbelievable.

Royals first baseman Billy Butler stole a base Sunday in the Royals’ spring opener against the Texas Rangers.

I know—incredibly strange news considering Butler only has one career stolen base in 533 games in the majors, but manager Ned Yost told MLB.com that he wants to see his players running more this season.

“Billy got one in the intrasquad game the other day, too,” Yost said. “You can pick your spots in those situations, and we’re looking to do that whenever we can.” Yost believes that Butler could reach double-digit steals this season.

“I have one in my career, and Ned’s going to be a little more aggressive than managers we’ve had in the past,” Butler said.

Butler went 1-for-2 with two RBI and a walk in his debut only to follow that up with an identical line on Monday with an added run scored.

Billy Butler is an interesting player with a lot of tools that are just beginning to maturate. He can obviously hit for power, get on base and drive in runs, and in 2011 Butler is primed for an explosion.

Let’s take a look.

Billy Butler, 1B-DH, Kansas City Royals

Assets

• Strong power bat who can drive in runs.
• Consistent hitter with a well-trained eye; won’t hurt you anymore on SO.
• Should afford fantasy baseball owners about 10 to 15 bags this year for some unexpected value.

Flaws

• Defensively, not that good.
• Needs to prove that last year’s drop-off was a fluke and not a sign of things to come.

ADP: 84.26 / 1B Rank: 13 / OVRL Rank: 82 / Round: Four or five

2010 Stat Line

2011 Projected Stat Line

2011 Fantasy Outlook

Many owners were scorned by Billy Butler last year in what they felt was going to be his breakout year. But the fact of the matter is the Royals had him working on some specifics. While Butler did decline in RBI (93 to 78) and home runs (21 to 15) last year, he improved his average and on-base percentage and significantly decreased his strikeout count (103 to 78).

Combine that strikeout count with the fact that the kid hit a career-high .318 last year—not to mention being a lifetime .299 hitter—and suddenly this 25-year-old near-elite power bat is already doing things middle-of-the-order guys only dream of.

If you decline on Butler in the first round of your draft, consider him a high-end early second-rounder with huge upside, especially with news that Yost wants his boys running the paths this year.

Something that Butler appears to be good at.

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In articles like this, many websites give readers a list of the best overall prospects at any given position, but the intention here is to focus on those prospects that are most likely to provide a significant fantasy impact in the 2011 season. Thus, a guy like White Sox prospect Dayan Viciedo—who should be beaten out by fellow prospect Brent Morel—is not on my list.

Ditto for Josh Bell in Baltimore, who has been blocked by the recent acquisition of Mark Reynolds.

Here is my list of the five third base prospects who will likely have the most impact at the major league level in 2011:

1. Mike Moustakas, KC
2010 Performance: .322, 36 HR, 124 RBI, 2 SB, 94 R (combined stats at AA and AAA)

Moustakas, 22, is clearly the best of the class of prospects at third base. He pummelled Texas League (AA) pitching to the tune of .347 with 21 home runs in just 259 ABs before being promoted to the Pacific Coast League (AAA). After his promotion to Omaha, he hit .293 with 15 homers (in 225 AB) and demonstrated that he is close to being major league-ready.

It has been suggested that “Moose” is capable of making an early-season jump to the major leagues in 2011, just as Mike Stanton (ATL) did last year, but it is likely he will either start the season as the Royals’ Opening Day third baseman or return to Triple-A for a full half-season.

He lacks plate discipline and while his selectivity improved in Double-A last year, he hit just .293 and drew only eight walks in the PCL—a league considered to be a hitter’s mecca.

I think he needs more seasoning before making the jump to the big leagues for good, so the betting here is he’ll start the 2011 season in the minors and make his debut with the Royals in July.

2. Brent Morel, CWS
2010 Performance: .322, 10 HR, 64 RBI, 8 SB, 65 R (combined stats at AA and AAA)

Morel, 23, has the inside track on Chicago’s third base job as spring training approaches. He was a September call-up last year and while he hit only .231 with 3 HR in 65 ABs, he showed his glove is ready for the big leagues.

The likelihood he sticks as the 2011 Opening Day starter increased when the White Sox signed DH Adam Dunn and re-signed 1B Paul Konerko and C AJ Pierzynski—their power capabilities in the middle of the lineup will permit the team to be patient with Morel’s offense while taking advantage of his defensive skills.

Mark Teahen started last year as the club’s third baseman but struggled at the hot corner and is being viewed as a super-utility player. Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo, who is known for his powerful bat, lacks plate discipline and defensive refinement and is still probably a year or two away from taking his place in the White Sox lineup.

Thus, Morel would seem to be the guy you want to target in your auction/draft. You can likely expect him to hit around .240-.250, with 15 HR (+/-).

3. Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE
2010 Performance: .278, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 3 SB, 81 RBI (at Double-A Akron)

Chisenhall is one of the best hitters in the minor leagues. He is a plus-hitter with excellent bat speed, a short stroke and solid power to all fields. He projects to hit for 20-plus HR in The Show.

He has accumulated over 600 plate appearances at Double-A and should start the season in AAA. His competition in Cleveland is not especially formidable, with Jayson Nix (.224 in 2010) and Luis Valbuena (.193) seemingly the only obstacles keeping him from taking over as the Tribe’s starting third baseman.

It is a near-certainty that he will be the Tribe’s starting third baseman by Opening Day 2012, but it would seem that a solid start in Columbus (AAA) could lead to a promotion after the All-Star break.

4. Zack Cox, StL
2010 performance: .429, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, 67 R (at Univ of Arkansas)

Cox was considered one of the top hitters coming out of college last spring. He was selected by St. Louis out of Arkansas in the first round of the June draft (No. 25 overall) and will eventually take over as the Cards’ starting 3B.

The question is, whether the ballclub, starving for offense in a somewhat punchless lineup, is prepared to promote him to the major leagues in his first full professional season.

The organization considered promoting him late last season, but ultimately decided not to do so. But that doesn’t mean they won’t give him a shot this year in spite of the fact he played in just four pro games in 2010.

The club will likely start David Freese at third base as the team heads north out of spring training, but it’s entirely possible Cox will move through the Cardinals system quickly and join the major league team sometime after midseason.

He has exceptional bat speed and is projected to hit for a solid BA and 20-plus home runs, but I expect it will take a couple of years for him to get settled in The Show. I can only say, “buyer beware” if he makes the Cardinals in 2011.

5. Matt Dominguez, FLA
2010 Performance: .252, 14 HR, 81 RBI, 0 SB, 61 R (at Double-A Jacksonville)

The Marlins have already announced they are going to give Dominguez a shot to win the job at third base during spring training.

The former first round pick (No. 12 overall in 2007) was a shortstop in high school but has been transferred to third base due to the presence of Hanley Ramirez in Miami.

It seems like an awfully big step for a guy who hit just .252 in Double-A, but the Marlins are committed to their plan. He is an excellent defender with a plus arm.

Caveat emptor! As with Cox, I expect Dominguez will have a negative impact on his fantasy league owners in 2011.

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The Kansas City Royals did not have a lot to cheer about during last year’s 67-win season, the fifth worst record in Major League Baseball in 2010.

Things only got worse when the Royals traded former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for a bunch of young prospects.

However, on Tuesday, the Royals organization became the envy of all Major League Baseball, placing two prospects in the Top 10 and six in the Top 50 in the rankings of baseball’s minor league prospects, giving them the highest total for this season and matching the highest total by any organization in the past eight years.

Third baseman Mike Moustakas and first baseman Eric Hosmer finished No. 7 and No. 8 respectively in MLB.com’s annual listing of the top 50 prospects in all of baseball.

Both players also finished as the top prospect at their respective positions.

Moustakas, the second overall pick in the 2007 MLB Draft, absolutely tore up both Double and Triple-A ball last season, hitting for a .324 average, 36 home runs and 124 runs batted in—all in just 118 games played.

Hosmer, the third overall pick of the 2008 MLB Draft, spent last season in Advanced Single-A before moving up to Double-A ball with Northwest Arkansas.

His 2010 season stats included 20 home runs, 86 RBI and a batting average of .338.

The Royals are young, inexperienced and absolutely loaded with talent—talent being the key word.

They have one of the best closers in all of baseball in Joakim Soria, they have the former No. 1 overall pick Luke Hochevar leading the pitching staff and they have a handful of young baseball players, from Alex Gordon to Billy Butler.

They also added former Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur, who still might have the best rifle arm in the outfield today.

The Kansas City Royals could still be a few years away from catching the likes of the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers or Chicago White Sox, and they might even get into a future prospects battle with the Cleveland Indians.

But things are looking up for the Blue and White.

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