Kuzul

There have been many rumours swirling about the Blue Jays, suggesting who they might be moving before the July 31st trade deadline.  Names like Scott Downs, Jose Bautista, John Buck, and Kevin Gregg are all being mentioned as possible trade chips.  The rumour mill on ESPN even suggests that they might be buyers.  So what are Jays fans supposed to draw from all of this?

Well, it certainly suggests that GM Alex Anthopoulos isn’t content to sit back and hope that the Jays regain the top spot in the American League East.  Toronto is currently 12.5 games back from the Yankees in the division and 9.5 back from the Tampa Bay Rays for the Wild Card spot. So, although they might gain on Boston, due to all the injuries the team has sustained lately, it is unlikely that Tampa and New York would struggle enough in the second half for the Jays to overtake them.

If the Jays are buyers, as ESPN suggests, who might they be after, and are they still dealing these names that are mentioned?  The Jays look like they are set with their pitching rotation, although Jesse Litsch has been struggling, so they could be after another arm with perhaps a little more experience.  But this seems unlikely, considering the young pitching depth that the Jays have.

So in what positions could the Jays use an upgrade?  Well, they have a few set positions right now filled in by the players that the team is going to build around.  Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Travis Snider, and now Yunel Escobar are the Jays’ future and Vernon Wells is signed long-term and seems to be the leader of the club.  Both Fred Lewis and Jose Bautista are young enough and play important roles that could allow them to be a part of the Jays’ building. 

Then you have Brett Wallace and J.P. Arencibia tearing up Triple-A ball, waiting to get called up to fill first base and catcher.  So what does that leave?  Well, if Snider takes over right field in his return, that pushes Bautista to third base, which leaves Edwin Encarnacion the odd man out.  Encarnacion certainly has a powerful bat, and he is heating up lately with a nine-game hit streak, but on defense is where he struggles.  So if it is between Bautista and his league-leading 27 home runs, and Encarnacion’s streaky play, you can likely figure out who is going to win that competition.

Of course, this still doesn’t determine in which area the Jays need to improve the most, and if they were to be buyers, what would they be looking for?  With Snider’s inexperience, and Lewis’ streaky play at times, the team could be after another outfielder who could hit for average and be a threat on the base paths.  There is also the possibility that Wallace could still use some seasoning in the minors, and with Overbay becoming a free agent at the end of this year, they could deal their current first baseman for a more long-term solution, like they did in acquiring Escobar. 

Granted, this all seems rather unlikely.  The Jays are attempting to go with a youth movement right now and seem to want to allow their players to develop, and give their prospects a chance.  So if they make any moves, it would likely be dealing their veterans on expiring contracts for more prospects and draft picks.  If ESPN is right, and they want to be buyers, you can be sure that they would be pursuing a player signed for several years.  There is no sense in the Jays acquiring more players with expiring contracts for what would seem like an unlikely playoff run.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

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To most people’s surprise, Kevin Gregg opened 2010 with quite possibly his best month of work in his career.

Gregg then promptly followed that with an almost equally surprising ugly month of May. It wasn’t shocking that Gregg had a bad month, he’s had his share over the years, but everything seemed to collapse on him at once. After starting the year with 12 scoreless outings in his first 13, he was then touched for at least a run in four of his next seven appearances.

Gregg’s FIP for the month of April was an outstanding 0.83—that almost exactly matched his .82 ERA. There was no luck on his side, he was just plain excellent—striking out 11.45 batters per nine innings while walking .82 per nine innings. He also didn’t allow a homer in 11 innings of work. Most importantly for the Blue Jays, Gregg was a perfect six-for-six in save opportunities.

When the month of May finally came to a close, Gregg’s strikeout rate was down to 9.49 per nine innings, still an excellent rate. His homer rate jumped up to 1.43 thanks to yielding a pair in 12 1/3 innings of work. What really fueled his struggles though was his whopping 6.57 BB/9 IN. That left him with a 5.11 ERA and a 5.29 FIP. The closeness of the two numbers removes any doubt that he had a run of bad luck, Gregg was just plain bad.

Where does that leave Gregg moving forward? He can’t reasonably be expected to duplicate April’s numbers. With his 2/3 of an inning, four run, five walk, melt down against the Rays on June 1st he’ll have to settle down quickly if he’s going to bounce back this month.

But Gregg has been unpredictable from month to month before, suggesting he could still have a couple months of effectiveness this season. Just last year, Gregg kicked it off with a 5.79 FIP in April but was able to follow it up with FIPs of 4.81, 4.33 and 3.31 over the next three months. He then promptly had his worst month in August with a 6.70 FIP.

The best example of Gregg’s ability to look like a different pitcher many times in the same season would be his 2006 campaign with the Angels. It also happens to be Gregg’s last season in the American League before this one. That year Gregg put up FIPs of 1.93 in April and 1.54 in July. Sandwiched in the middle were FIPs of 5.13 and 5.06 in May and June. He finished the year with an effective 3.38 FIP in August and another stinker with a 5.11 in September.

Even Gregg’s full season numbers show his struggles with consistency. After allowing just .75 HR/9 IN and .39 HR/9 IN in 2007 and 2008 he allowed a whopping 1.70 HR/9 IN last year. In the same 2009 in which he had the worst homer rate of his career he had his best walk rate since 2006 and struckout more batters than innings pitched for just the second time in his career.

Getting guys to strikeout hasn’t been a problem this year for either good Gregg or bad Gregg. He could live with May’s 1.47 HR/9 IN, but he’ll need to get a handle on the walks quickly. This isn’t exactly the most exciting pattern of behavior for a team’s closer. It also raises the question of how long the Jays should try and ride it out with Gregg in the closer’s role. The walk rate is the key factor, if he can’t stabilize it quickly the Jays need to look elsewhere at the end of games. Or just wait ’til next month and see which Kevin Gregg trots out from the ‘pen.

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While Roy Halladay’s perfect game may remind Blue Jays’ fans just exactly how great the pitcher who just left was, I wouldn’t mourn Doc for too long. The Blue Jays’ win over the Rays on May 31st just proves that this team may be just fine without their ace. 

Adam Lind capped off a phenomenal power month for the Jays with their 54th long ball of May. This was not only a club record for the Jays but it was only four shy of the all time Major league record. 

I don’t think any of the current pitchers would say that they don’t miss Doc but the rotation seems to be just fine without him. Shaun Marcum has solidified his status as club ace and Ricky Romero continues to build on his great rookie campaign. Brett Cecil has buckled down quite nicely and Brandon Morrow was excellent tonight against the best team in baseball. Morrow carried a no hitter into the sixth inning for the second time this year. Not too shabby for a guy who the Mariners dumped for Brandon League. 

The Jays play in the AL East, the most feared division in baseball. While this division is still the toughest in baseball, Toronto has a shot. The Rays have been slumping and the Yankees are banged up. The Red Sox dug themselves a big hole in April that they are trying to get out of. I wouldn’t count them out but they have an uphill battle ahead of them. 

Toronto is 3.5 games back from the division lead. This team is also only one game behind the Yankees in the wild card. This is great for a team that no one saw still in contention in June even if Roy Halladay was still a Jay. 

I still think the Jays are one move away from being a true playoff contender. This is Alex Anthopolous’ chance to prove his abilities as a general manager. Spend, spend, spend was the philosophy of Riccardi but a team with this offense should have a “win now” mentality.

Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt are on the trade market. I wouldn’t give up Kyle Drabek or Brett Wallace for other one but these are trades that AA should look in to. The majority of the offense is locked up for years to come but they could use some pitching help if they want to go deep into October. This isn’t a team that needs drastic help but another quality starter would be nice should Cecil or Morrow falter down the road. 

The AL East is not going to get any easier and the Blue Jays find themselves in a great position coming into June. This team needs to capitalize on the current misfortunes of the Yankees and Red Sox and make a serious play at the division or the wild card. Anthopolous has said time and time again that he will spend when the time is right. Let’s see if he can live up to that promise. 

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Many of the so called experts predicted the Toronto Blue Jays to end up in the cellar in the AL East.

So far, this hasn’t happened as the Blue Jays have stayed within striking distance in the AL east, and currently own the AL’s third best record.

How have they done this you may ask? Well, it is simple. They currently lead the league in home runs and the pitching staff has stepped up and pitched pretty consistently.

At the plate Vernon Wells is tearing it up. He is second on the team in homers with 11, leads the team with a .301 average, and has batted in 33 runs. This is what many Blue Jays fans have expected from Wells year to year.

Perhaps the surprises of the year have come in journeyman IF/OF Jose Bautista, who leads the team with 14 long balls and 38 ribbies.

Currently his 14 homers leads the AL, which is a surprise for a guy who hadn’t hit 75 in his career going into the season.

Along side Bautista is Alex Gonzalez, who has rocked 10 long balls and knocked in 30. Gonzalez hadn’t hit more than 10 homers all season long since the 2007 season with the Reds.

Edwin Encarnacion has also been a major part of the attack at third base. He has hit 7 long balls and driven in only 16, but is a dangerous addition to the lineup on a daily basis.

While these three have done it at the plate and carried the team, many of the guys thought to have been the main offensive threats heading into the season have struggled.

Adam Lind is only batting .237 and has struck out nearly 50 times. Former all star Aaron Hill is batting below the Mendoza line at .156, and Lyle Overbay has struggled to get going batting just over .200. Just imagine if these guys were hitting like they could?

Where the Jays have really capitalized is at the front and end of the game. Starters have combined to go 19-13 to this point, and several starters have carried no hitters into the late innings.

The Jays are lead by Ricky Romero, who leads the team in ERA, strike-outs, and is tied for the lead in wins.

Also making a splash is former third round pick Shaun Marcum, who is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA and is showing signs of being a front of the rotation pitcher. Also youngsters such as Brett Cecil, Dana Eveland, Brandon Morrow, and Brian Tallet have been solid contributors.

In the bullpen it makes all the difference in the world when you have a closer.

Kevin Gregg has turned back to his All Star form of 2008 as he has nailed down 12 games in 20+ innings while keeping his ERA under 4.00. Scott Downs, Shawn Camp, Casey Janssen, and Jason Frasor have also been solid working out of the pen, combining for a 7-5 record with an ERA of just over 4.00.

At this point many readers who aren’t Jays fans may be saying,

“So what? They still play in the same division as the Yanks, Rays, and Sox!”

I say, not so fast my friend! Please don’t forget who the manager is on this team.

Cito Gaston has been there and done that. Cito has been to four post seasons in his career, all with the Blue Jays, and won back to back titles in 1992-93. He has a knack for getting the most out of players, and this group has been no exception.

If I were to hire any manager in the game, Cito would be at the top of mine, and most people who know baseball’s list.

The bottom line is do not turn your back on this team. Sure, they have lost two of three against the Rays this season, and five of six against the Sox, but they are still relatively young. This is a team that is learning how to win, and Cito Gaston is the man to teach these young men how to do so.

I am not saying they will win the division, or even make the wild card spot, but I assure you that they will stay in it. Romero and Marcum provide a solid 1-2 punch, while youngster Brett Cecil has showed the promise of a great young pitcher.

Add a lineup that can score at any moment with the long ball and you have something.

Again, I am just saying they will contend at this point. I am not completely on the bandwagon yet. If they can find ways to win series’ against the Yanks, Sox, and Rays on a consistent basis then you had better watch out.

Cito will have these guys playing well above their skill sets all year long, and all I say is if you are a fan of baseball, do not discard the Toronto Blue Jays as the pennant races heat up.

But as always, that’s just my opinion, I could be wrong…..

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If nothing else, the 2010 edition of the Toronto Blue Jays may be the most exciting team in Baseball.

Off to their second best start in 15 years, this year the team isn’t using smoke and mirrors or benefiting from mediocre play from the Yankees and Red Sox.

They are literally HAMMERING their way to a 25-17 record—good enough for third in the AL East and a mere one game behind the Yankees for the AL Wild Card.

With power arms and even more powerful bats, this team is starting to make the rest of the league take notice.

Can the Blue Jays maintain this torrid pace? With a roster filled with journeyman and young, inexperienced players, the conventional logic says no.

But this team is far from conventional. In fact, they may just take this league, and this city, by storm.

Here are the Top Ten reasons why the Toronto Blue Jays can win the Wild Card

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