Kuzul

Every year, without skipping a beat, a fantasy baseball manager will find disappointment in his early first or second round pick. When drafting, consistency is the key but it is easy to be swayed by the flashy numbers.

A bust is not a player you expect to succumb to regression due to age as he enters the uncomfortable “past his prime” stage of his career. Any decent fantasy baseball owner expects this when drafting. A bust, as I will predict, are players on the rise that have become so popular, that their expectations far exceed their potential outcome.

Here are players from each division who are sure to upset the willing manager that drafts them.

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Did the St. Louis Cardinals make a mistake by extending Lance Berkman’s contract? The slugger re-upped for a reported $12 million in 2012—a $4 million raise from 2011.

The Redbirds need a closer, a second baseman and another top of the line starting pitcher if they want to win it all. So, was paying Berkman, 35, almost half of Matt Holliday’s salary their best move?

Lance will be moving to the 36-year-old age range on February 10. Maybe he’ll exchange Valentine’s Day gifts with the fans and maybe not. But, it’s been a heartwarming relationship between Berkman and Cardinal Nation.

Join me for my heartfelt analysis of the reasons why this was the right move and the best move in lieu of the spending Cardinals’ next move.

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Week 3

April 4th – April 10th 

The Colorado Rockies continued their torrid play, winning seven of eight games this week, including a four game sweep of the New York Mets. Perhaps most impressive, is that the Rockies are dominating National League opponents without the benefit of their ace Ubaldo Jimenez, who has been sidelined for two weeks with a torn cuticle.

The Cleveland Indians boast the best record in the American League at 11-4, led by the solid pay of shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and DH Travis Hafner. The club received a boost on Sunday with the return of center fielder Grady Sizemore, who went 2-4 with a home run in his 2011 debut.

Offensive Player of the Week: Lance Berkman 
.417 6 HR, 12 RBI, 9 R, 0 SB

The dormant bats of the St. Louis Cardinals finally awoke in week three, with Lance Berkman leading the way with 6 home runs in seven days. The Puma torched Dodger and Diamondback pitching with a .417 average and 12 RBI, while propelling the red birds to within a game and a half of the NL Central lead. 

Honorable Mention: Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Kemp and Starlin Castro 

Pitcher of the Week: Dan Haren
2 wins, 15.1 innings pitched, 14 strikeouts, 1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP

Dan Haren was the top-pitching performer of Week 2, posting two excellent starts for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Haren is the second straight Angel to win the award, following in the footsteps of Angel ace Jered Weaver. 

Haren appears to be one of the best values of the draft as he leads all pitchers with 4 wins in the month of April, including an excellent complete game shutout on April 12th against the AL Central leading Indians. 

Honorable Mention: Cliff Lee, Brian Wilson and Mariano Rivera

Working the Wire

Veteran starting pitcher Aaron Harang appears to have found a new home in the pitcher friendly confines of PetCo Park. The 6’7″ Harang is off to a fast start in 2011, winning all three of his outings while posting an excellent 1.50 ERA. 

Despite his strong start, it appears as though fantasy owners are not buying into his career resurgence. With an ownership percentage of 49 percent, I recommend picking him up before more fantasy owners realize that even mediocre pitchers can excel in the cavernous PetCo Park.

Click here for the conclusion of the article…..

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While players like Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Josh Hamilton are accustomed to winning MVP awards, but it doesn’t mean they are the most important players for their team to win.

We all know about team’s most valuable players, but who really is the most important player for each team to have a successful season?

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Lance Berkman has shown the rest of baseball that he still has some life left in his bat during the Cardinals last few games in Arizona. Berkman had been struggling heading into Arizona with a .214/.290/.286 line with zero home runs.

Berkman had an incredible three games in Arizona, and coming into today’s off day, he has a line of .293/.356/.634 with four home runs. Berkman had one home run in his 123 plate appearances for the Yankees.

The real question remains whether Berkman went to the well for one last surge, or can Berkman return to numbers he put up in the last decade? 

There is some evidence in favor of comeback season for Lance. Berkman’s first week struggles were influenced by some bad luck. Overall, his season BABIP sits at .258 (the average is currently at .293), and his strikeout numbers (17 percent) and walk numbers (10 percent) were pretty solid before heading to Arizona.

Berkman’s batted ball numbers have been better during the first two weeks of this season. He is back to a lower groundball rate at 43 percent after a career high of 47.6 percent in 2010. Berkman has also been hitting the ball relatively hard with a 25 percent line drive rate.  

Looking at video of Berkman’s at-bats during the series, it is obvious that he found his power stroke to left and left-center field as a left-handed batter. Berkman’s power as a left-handed hitter has always been to that direction.

His most impressive home run was his opposite field grand slam on a 91 mph fastball on the outside corner from Ian Kennedy. Three of his four home runs came on fastballs that were hit to the opposite field, and the other came on a slider that was lined to right field.  

Berkman’s case becomes murky mostly because of where and against whom Berkman had his tremendous three games. Arizona’s Chase Field, like Coors Field or the Great American Ballpark, is known as a hitter’s haven.

Add to the fact that the Diamondbacks have one of the poorer pitching staffs in baseball. They have given up the second most home runs per nine innings, of course Chase Field inflates that number, and they have the third highest WHIP in baseball.

Juan Gutierrez, Sam Demel, Armando Galarraga and Ian Kennedy were the pitchers who served up Berkman’s long balls, Kennedy being the only above-average one of the bunch. 

Berkman has still struggled from the right side of the plate. In a very small sample size, he is currently 0-for-8 with two strikeouts. Berkman looked lost as a right-handed hitter last season, and while he has always been better from the left side, he usually supplied some power as a right-handed hitter.

With this small sample size, it is hard to say where his right-handed swing is, but it I have a hard time believing it is in good shape.

I think we can say after this week’s performance that Berkman won’t have a terrible repeat of 2010, when he battled health issues to start the season.

However, I don’t think we will see a complete return to his mid-2000 form (may be if he played all of is games in Arizona). I still expect a season of 20 home runs with a .270/.380/.475 line, somewhat closer to his 2009 numbers.   

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During the first decade of this millenium, Lance Berkman was a staple in any conversation about the best hitters in baseball.

Through almost 12 seasons in Houston he had become the face of the franchise, along with Roy Oswalt, and was a former member of the Killer Bs, taking Derek Bell’s place in 2000 alongside Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell.

In his first three full seasons, Berkman was 6th in Rookie of the Year voting and was a two-time All-Star:

Clearly, Lance was off to an incredible start to his career.

Starting out with other superstars around and then having the team fade into mediocrity, Berkman flew considerably under the radar based upon the kind of offensive stats he was posting year in and year out. With 327 career home runs and 1,099 RBIs, the power threat is obvious, but he is also a career .296 hitter.

Over the last four seasons we have seen Berkman’s home run numbers drop steadily: 34, 29, 25 and finally 14 last season. However, that has been somewhat mirrored by his decline in games played: 153, 159, 136 and 122. Additionally, last season in the second half we saw a drastic drop in both power and batting average: 12 HRs to two HRs and a .255 average to .234.

In St. Louis they have a guy named Albert Pujols keeping Berkman from playing first base, so he will see his first regular time in the outfield in several years. The fact that he’s getting regular playing time and that Tony La Russa’s team has a history of getting the most out of older players is why I believe we are looking at a better year in 2011. See Exhibit A, Jim Edmonds, and Exhibit B, Larry Walker, for further proof.

With a current ADP of 261, I see Berkman as a value pick with a late-round flier.

2011 Fantasy Forecast: 70 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 4 SB, .270 Avg

Previous Bounce Back Selections: Pablo Sandoval, Justin Upton, Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bay, Russell Martin,

Brian is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of the 4th and Home Radio show on Blog Talk Radio

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At first glance, identifying the five best catching prospects in the Houston Astros’ system is like deciding which Jersey Shore cast member to invite to your niece’s Christening. It’s a quandary, really*. Your options are pretty bad across the board.

Scouring the Houston system for promising catchers wasn’t easy; in fact, it was darn near impossible. Truth be told, I was tempted to just start and end this list with the words “Craig Biggio” and hope everyone reading was 45 or older. Fortunately, my better judgment won out; the last thing I need is all 12 Astro’s fans mad at me**. I’ve never messed with Texas, and believe me, I don’t plan on starting now.

But seriously, as Astros fans flock to the ‘net in need of baseball info, it’s our job at Bleacher Report to try our best to make the best of a bad situation, so I’ve compiled a list of the five most promising catching prospects in the Houston system.

Proceed with caution: you’re about to miss Brad Ausmus more than you ever thought you could.  

(Author’s note No. 1: Any Jersey Shore aficionado knows the clear answer to this question is Vinny. If a question is ever aimed at determining which of the Seaside gorillas is the most normal, acceptable, or redeemable, the answer is always Vinny.)

(Author’s note No. 2: Kidddingggggg…)

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            The Cardinals were widely expected to win the National League Central last season. The acquisition of Matt Holliday was expected to provide some pop for the lineup and protect Pujols well – which he did. A fully recovered Chris Carpenter was predicted to be back to his old Cy Young form – which he was. There were many reasons why the Cardinals should have shown a better record in the standings, yet they weren’t able to beat out the Reds for the division crown. 

            There is reason to believe that the Cardinals might be back at the top of the division this year, however I have some very reasonable arguments that show they may not be up to full potential and that distractions and problems in the lineup could arise.

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With so many of the big name free agents signed early on this off season, it has been a winter of trade rumors, and while most have proved to be nothing beyond just rumors, the Brewers managed to pull off two of the bigger trades of the off season.

However, the rest of the NL Central has been fairly busy as well, as the Cubs, Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers all look to be in the running for the division. Even the Astros and Pirates made a handful of moves that could make series’ against them that much tougher.

So here are the ten biggest moves of the off season for the NL Central, as we look forward to Spring Training and the start of the season.

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I guess the St. Louis Cardinals figured if they won the World Series with Chris Duncan starting 59 games in the outfield in 2006, they can do the same with Lance Berkman in 2010.

In a surprising move, the Cardinals signed Lance Berkman to a one-year, eight million dollar contract on Saturday. The 34-year-old switch-hitter will play left field for the Cardinals in 2011. Matt Holliday will move to right, and Colby Rasmus will remain in center.

This is a surprising move, because Berkman hasn’t played the outfield since 2007, and even back then he wasn’t very good at it. And on top of that, Berkman has two bad wheels, and Holliday has never played an inning in RF in his Major League career.

Perhaps with four groundball pitchers in the rotation, the Cardinals are banking that a limited amount of flyballs will be hit.

While the Cardinals have statistically gotten worse on defense with the acquisitions of Ryan Theriot and Berkman, their offense should be better with these acquisitions in 2011.

As much as Berkman fell off last year, he still was good for a .368 combined OBP with the Houston Astros and New York Yankees. His BB Percentage and K Percentage were right in line with his career averages.

Where Berkman really fell off in 2010 was his performance as a right-handed batter. He only hit .171/.261/.256 with one HR as a right-handed batter. One would think he could only improve on that in 2011.

With Berkman, the Cardinals now will feature a lineup that looks something like this:

1. Schumaker, 2B

2. Berkman, LF

3. Pujols, 1B

4. Holliday, RF

5. Rasmus, CF

6. Molina, C

7. Freese, 3B

8. Theriot, SS

9. Pitcher

For a National League lineup, it’s not that bad. It’s still very top heavy, and if Berkman can’t stay healthy, this lineup doesn’t look nearly as good.

Berkman only played in 122 games last year, and that was with him playing first and DH. So it will be interesting to see how healthy he can stay trying to track down fly balls in left on a daily basis.

If Berkman can stay on the field, Berkman can still be productive enough to give the Cardinals a solid bat in front of Albert Pujols. Of course, that’s a big if.

You can follow the Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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