Kuzul

Losing Kendry Morales was just about the worst thing that could have happened to the lackluster Los Angels of Anaheim.

Or, at least, that’s the way it seemed.

However, since Morales broke his leg celebrating his walk-off grand slam at home on May 29, the Angels have gone 5-1 with 37 runs scored.

More importantly, though, is that they’ve been included in numerous trade rumors as they look to add more power to the lineup―something that desperately needed to be done prior to their big slugger going down.

At the time of his injury, Morales lead the team in batting average, home runs, and RBI.

Even with their first baseman in the middle of the order, the anemic Angels still ranked right around the middle of the American League in nearly every major offensive category.

Now without his primary source of power and production in the lineup for the foreseeable future, General Manager Tony Reagins is searching high and low for a suitable replacement, someone who can get the job done but won’t butcher the position on defense or stick around long enough to cause a logjam at first.

At least for now, there are no such options in-house. Robb Quinlan is a nice utility guy, but can’t match the production Morales provided. The same could be said for Kevin Frandsen and Michael Ryan.

Mike Napoli is the most logical choice at the moment. With his bat finally starting to heat up, it will be important to keep him in the lineup as often as possible.

But his defensive abilities behind the plate are questionable enough, to say nothing of his lack of experience in the infield.

And speaking of lacking experience, Angels first base prospect Mark Trumbo is hitting well in Triple-A but has yet to make his major league debut, so it is unlikely he will be called upon to shepherd the big club through its sudden power outage.

A trade, then, is the only reasonable option left.

Several names have already been tossed around by various sources and while some have already been refuted, others remain intriguing possibilities.

Here are the top five most likely options for a trade to fill the Angels’ gap at first this season.

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At 26-27, the L.A. Angels have been a disappointment thus far. Although they haven’t lived up to popular expectations, the Angels only sit 2.5 games behind the first place Oakland A’s in the AL West.

A large reason for the Angels lack of production this season has been their inconsistent hitting, led by sub-par pitching. The Angel’s pitching staff currently sits at 24th in the MLB with a 4.63 ERA. Their starters have produced a combined 4.56 ERA and gathered 18 of the Angles 26 wins.

The Angels pitching hasn’t been awful, but they certainly haven’t lived up to expectations. Acquiring right-hander Joel Pineiro last off-season was projected to help Jered Weaver and the rest of the staff after loosing ace John Lackey to free agency.

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Paul Konerko has had his bags packed to head to the Los Angeles Angels on more than one occasion.

Now, however, it seems as though Konerko could actually be getting on the plane.

With Kendry Morales celebrating a walk-off grand slam by breaking his leg, the Angels could use another first baseman. 

With the White Sox “grinder”/Ozzie ball/don’t score runs and have awful defense experiment putting the team in a battle for third place in the American League Central division, it could be time for the White Sox to look toward 2011…or maybe 2012.

Konerko is currently batting .262 with 14 home runs, 33 RBI, and a .366 OBP.

What it comes down to is the non-contending White Sox having a 34-year-old soon to be free agent who can still produce and play a solid first base and the contending Angels in the wide-open American League West having a vacant spot at first base.

The White Sox also have prospects Tyler Flowers and Dayan Viciedo waiting in the wings for a chance at first base/DH.

Seems like an easy decision, although the real question is whether or not White Sox fans trust GM Kenny Williams making trades anymore.

Remember Gio Gonzalez? He’s starting in Oakland with a 5-3 record, a 3.54 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP at the tender age of 25.

At least Williams got Nick Swisher for Gonzalez…for a year.

After a tough season with the White Sox where Swisher led MLB in the non-grinder, boring stat pitches per plate appearance, Swisher was shipped to the Yankees, where he is currently batting .318 with nine home runs, 28 RBI, 34 runs, and a .397 OBP.

But at least Williams was able to steal Wilson Betemit and Jeffrey Marquez from New York for Swisher. A who cares and a who. 

Remember John Ely? The 24-year-old is starting for the Los Angeles Dodgers, sitting at 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, striking out 32 batters and walking six in his first 39 innings pitched in the big leagues.

At least Williams got Juan Pierre for Ely. The 33-year-old Pierre has a whopping .245 batting average and a .304 OBP so far this season.

And then there’s Jake Peavy. Peavy, who anyone with eyes could see lived and died by PETCO Park and the National League, is currently sporting a 6.23 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.

Clayton Richard, who wasn’t even the biggest piece of the trade with the San Diego Padres for Peavy, is 4-3 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 63 innings as a starter for the Padres at the old age of 27.

Wait until the Padres start using the 23-year-old left-hander Aaron Poreda. Then White Sox fans may realize how much this trade hurt.

Mix these trades with multi-year deals to mediocre players like Mark Teahen, Scott Linebrink, and Tony Pena, and fans may be asking themselves if Williams can be traded instead of Konerko. 

For the White Sox, however, it looks as though the team will need to move cornerstones Konerko and Mark Buehrle, who Williams did not acquire, along with Bobby Jenks and the contract of Gavin Floyd, if the team wants a chance to go after someone like Cliff Lee in free agency next year. 

But the White Sox will probably just fire Ozzie Guillen and continue trading young talent for mediocre older players instead.

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So far 2010 has been filled with drama.

Teams go from boiling hot to freezing cold in an instant. Stars have been struggling more than ever.

Who would have thought Memorial Day weekend would leave so many marks this season?

Here are three 2010 Memorial Day Weekend shockers:

• The Philadelphia Phillies are a mess. The Phillies were swept badly by the Mets, who did not allow the Phillies to score a run in all three games. Who knew that was going to happen? Jimmy Rollins or not.

Now the Atlanta Braves lead the NL East, a position the Phillies have owned for two seasons. Jason Werth and Ryan Howard have got to hit or else this could get worse for the Phillies.

• The Toronto Blue Jays, who usually start out hot, look here to stay in 2010.

Who would have guessed the season after ace Roy Halladay gets traded to the Phillies Toronto would be more of a threat. Add that to an ice cold Aaron Hill at the plate, but the team has the most home runs in all of baseball with 89. Wait until Hill starts going, which is inevitable.

Nothing short of crazy stuff! Halladay wants a World Series ring. He felt as a Blue Jay hurt his chances. Halladay is pitching better than ever, as he just achieved the 20^th perfect game in baseball history.

Thank god! Now Dallas Brandon can finally shut up, as he doesn’t hold a candle to Mr. Halladay. Stick it grandma, your grandson is annoying.

The Blue Jays won’t let my Yankees breathe, who are sandwiching the World Series champs with the Rays on top.

• The walk-off home-run is the most exciting way to win. It will boost any team’s morale, and the fans go nuts. It is everybody’s kind of win; the best kind no doubt.

It has always been nothing but fun and Kenny Morales did that for his Angeles on Saturday in grand-slam style. As the Morales leaped to embrace his teammates at home plate, he broke his leg.

Morales is leading the Angels in hitting for 2010, and now is out for the season. Such bad luck making the joy of the walk-off a tragic win for the Angels.

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How do you hurt yourself jumping on home plate?  Injuries can happen any time in a million different ways. Ask Kendry Morales.

No one has ever been hurt (at least as far as I can recall) jumping on home plate after a walk-off homerun, but there is always a first time for everything, and it was bound to happen soon or a later.

This time it happened. At least it’s better than breaking your hand punching out a wall after something goes against you on the field.  That one’s happened too many times to count.

Or you could cut off the tip of your finger using a hedge trimmer like Bobby Ojeda back in 1988.  Actually, I just looked at this wikipedia article about Ojeda, which says that the real story was that he lost the finger when it was slammed in a door when the Mets were drunkenly celebrating clinching a play-off spot that year.  However, the wiki article provides no citation for this alleged “true story”, and I wasn’t able to find anything on the web from what I would consider a reliable source.

Either way, Ojeda probably isn’t one of the sharpest guys ever to put on a baseball uniform. He was also famously involved in the boating accident that killed Tim Crews and Steve Olin back in Spring Training 1993. Crews was the one piloting the boat, but he was almost assuredly not the only one who was drunk as a skunk at the moment of impact.

Sorry Bobby, no one gets to live down an episode that stupid and deadly.

The Angels will be without Morales for a good long time, which is going to hurt their playoff chances. Despite a poor start, the Angels are still only 2.5 games out in the AL West (looking like the weakest division in baseball this year, a title held by the NL West the last few seasons), so they are certainly going to miss Morales.

The Indians’ Grady Sizemore is about to undergo knee surgery, which could cost him the rest of the ’10 season.  One has to wonder if he isn’t going to be the next Eric Chavez.

Like Chavez, Grady had a string of seasons at the start of his career in which he was injury free, but this is the second year in a row which he’s suffered major injuries.  Last year, it was groin and elbow problems.  Now it’s his knee.

Grady turns 28 in August, which is roughly the same age at which Chavez began to fall apart.  I hope it isn’t so, because Grady was a great player, but the cynic in me says it’s a real possibility.

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It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Now is the summer of our discontent.

After crushing a walk-off grand slam in the 10th inning against the Seattle Mariners on Saturday, first baseman Kendry Morales suffered a potentially season-ending injury when he broke his leg—along with Angels fans’ hearts—while celebrating with his teammates at home plate.

Oh, the irony.

From stadium-wide cheers to statewide groans, hope to despair, light to dark. The Los Angels of Anaheim and their fan-base are still recovering from the whiplash.

Unfortunately, the pain will only get worse from here.

Through the first two months of the season, the Angels are playing below .500 and remain firmly behind the Texas Rangers and Oakland A’s in the AL West. 

Team pitching is at or near the bottom of almost every category—the worst it’s been in at least a decade—and the offense is mediocre at best.

Consistency in any part of their game this year has been nothing more than a myth for the Angels. The only thing they had going for them was Morales.

The first baseman lead the team in average (.290), home runs (11), RBI (39), and was the only player to start every game this season. 

Over the last 10 games, Morales was batting .342 with two home runs and 10 RBI. He’s come through in the clutch, he’s shown power to all fields, he’s even flashed some leather on defense.

And now it’s all gone.

Even with Morales in the lineup, the Angels are only 24-27 following Saturday’s heroics…and subsequent tragedy. Irony at its finest.

But what’s most ironic of all is that as devastating as Morales’ injury might seem, it should force the brass to finally do the one thing they’ve needed to do since game one: take swift action to keep this team competitive.

Robb Quinlan is the most likely candidate to be called up from the minors when Morales is placed on the DL on Sunday, but he is hardly a sufficient replacement.

In 23 games at Triple-A Salt Lake, Quinlan is hitting just .253 with zero home runs and only five RBI. He struck out twice and failed to record a single hit in six at-bats at the major league level this season.

The Angels’ next best option, 24-year-old first baseman Mark Trumbo, is hitting .275 with 11 homers and 39 RBI in Salt Lake, but has yet to play a game in the big leagues.

No, if the Angels want to have a prayer of competing in their division this year, they will have to seek the help of a higher power. Or at least power from outside their organization.

Several interesting names have already surfaced this year as potential trade candidates, including Prince Fielder and Lance Berkman.

The struggling Milwaukee Brewers and pitiful Houston Astros are both well back in the NL Central and could be willing to part with their respective All-Star first basemen.

Fielder, on the verge of free agency, would more than make up for the lost offense from Morales without putting the Angels in an awkward position with two top-notch players vying for one spot.

At the end of the year, Fielder walks away to pursue a new contract while the Angels simply stick with their freshly healed star.

On the other hand, it will take a tremendous force to move the hefty Fielder. The Brewers will no doubt demand at least one major leaguer along with several strong prospects to help rebuild their franchise.

The same will be true for Berkman, though it’s unlikely Houston would ask for as much in return as Milwaukee, given that Berkman is older and off to a slow start after returning from an injury earlier this season.

Things will heat up as we get deeper into the summer and new names are sure to surface on the trade market. Of course, everything will depend on the severity of Morales’ injury and where the Angels sit in the standings.

If Kendry spends his summer on vacay and the team hasn’t fallen too far back, don’t bother trying to call the stadium. GM Tony Reagins will be tying up the phone lines from morning ’til night in search of a new leg to stand on.

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OK, so here’s one you don’t see every day. Today in the Angels/Mariners game in Anaheim, Angels first baseman Kendry Morales hit a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th to win the game 5-1 for L.A.

Morales, who’s quietly become one of the best players in the American League, was doing what every single player in the big leagues would do. He saw his teammates in a mob at the plate, ready for him to make the big leap into the pile to celebrate the winning runs.

And then the happy mob of Angels players had the shortest celebration in recent memory.

Morales appeared to land on a teammate’s foot, and he landed very awkwardly. He had to be carted off the field and X-rays later revealed a “fracture of the lower left leg.” He literally broke his leg celebrating a walk-off hit. A grand slam, to boot.

Now it appears the Angels will be without their star first baseman for quite some time. In one trip around the bases, Morales goes from a walk-off to a cart-off.

Could this be the death of the walk-off mob at home plate? Certainly it would have to be scaled down, at least in the Angels case, effective immediately.

“It’ll change the way we celebrate,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. “It sure was exciting, but you always wonder if it’s an accident waiting to happen.”

For the Angels, they lose their leading hitter in AVG, HR and RBI.  Losing your leader in the triple crown categories is bad enough, but Morales is also one of the better defense first basemen in the game.

In his breakout season last year, Morales led all major league first basemen in UZR, and was second in the majors in UZR/150 to the Twins’ Justin Morneau. For the first two months of this season, he was second in the AL and third overall in UZR. So the Angels aren’t just losing their best hitter, they’re also losing one of the game’s best defenders.

Apparently, it may not be a quick stay on the DL, either. Early reports are that Morales might miss the rest of the season and will have surgery tomorrow.

As bad as it is for the Angels, could this have ramifications across baseball in regards to the way teams celebrate walk-off home runs?

As Scioscia said, managers always wonder when something like that is going to happen. Morales is not the first player to get injured celebrating a walk-off. But the walk-off home run specifically is the only time a player hops high into the air and comes down on home plate so violently like that.

Some players get some serious air on their jumps. Morales didn’t exactly out-jump Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen, but then again McCutchen isn’t 225 pounds.

When a team scores a walk-off win on anything other than a home run, the team comes out to celebrate but the run has already scored and, for the most part, no one gets injured because of the lack of the home run leap into the plate.

That’s not to say it doesn’t happen, but it’s still relatively rare. I wouldn’t be surprised to see teams taking it easy on those dog piles at the plate, though, regardless of the type of hit. I also wouldn’t expect to see too many guys going “Air McCutchen” too often anymore either.

A freak injury may have cost the Angels one of their best players for the season, and it may have cost baseball fans around the globe the chance to see any more spur-of-the-moment, adrenaline-filled, crazy celebrations on walk-off homers. It’s a shame, considering how unlikely the odds a player can get so seriously injured on a freak incident like that.

But you’d have to think that every general manager in the majors will be talking to their respective teams and coaches about taking it easy. No one wants to see an injury like this ever happen again. Meanwhile, the Angels are still three games under .500, struggling to keep afloat in a winnable division.

Ouch.

(This article was originally posted on my personal blog, MetsJetsNetsBlog, and can be found here.)

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The recently completed Angels road trip through Texas, Chicago, and St. Louis was mediocre. The team went 3-4 and did not seem to shake off the doldrums they have suffered all season.

On the other hand, for Mike Napoli, the road trip had some definite upside.

The Angel catcher played in six of the seven games on the trip. In those six games, Nap had 21 at-bats, five runs scored, eight hits (including one double and four home runs), and an eye-opening nine RBI. His line for the road trip:

.381/.458/1.000/1.458

Those numbers are not a typo—Mike Napoli posted a 1.458 OPS on the recently completed road trip.

When the Halos left Anaheim, Mike’s numbers sat at .230/.316/.402/.719. As they finished a winning series against Toronto with a Wednesday walk-off, that season line improved to .265/.353/.538/.891. That is nothing short of a remarkable turnaround for a hitter whose OPS was an anemic .569 as recently as May 3.

What is not remarkable about that turnaround is that all Angels fans should have expected it. Coming into the 2010 season, Mike Napoli had played 366 MLB games. In those games, he had a career OPS of .850 with 66 HR and 181 RBI.

To add to his offensive credentials, Napoli set the 2010 Cactus League on fire. In 18 spring games this year, Napoli blasted six homers and drove in 11 runs, putting up an impressive line of .280/.368/.760/1.128.

With numbers like that, it was not hard to see that Mike Napoli was going to be the Angels’ everyday catcher, starting on opening night.

Funny thing, however: It did not work out that way for Mike. Angels manager Mike Scioscia—who has never made his desire for a strong defensive catcher a secret—gave the opening night assignment to Jeff Mathis. Mathis would go on to start 10 of the Angels’ first 14 games.

Mathis played well in those games, without question; even his bat came to life, as Jeff has posted an impressive .851 OPS in 2010 play.

During that 14-game stretch, Napoli only got into six games (four as a starter), and his hot spring became a memory. Mike posted a meager line of .133/.235/.133/.369 to start 2010.

As all Angels fans are aware, Mathis went down the night of April 19 with a fractured right wrist (he is still on the disabled list with no definite return date, though he did resume light throwing on May 18). Napoli became the starting catcher by default, and at first he did not respond well with the bat.

In eight starting assignments between April 20 and April 27, Mike went 4-for-24 (.167 average) with zero extra-base hits and one RBI. The Angels were no doubt starting to wonder what happened to their superior offensive catcher’s superior offense.

Starting April 30 at Detroit, when Napoli went 1-for-3 with a triple, the Angels have not had to wonder any longer.

In that time span, Napoli has posted a .321 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, and .731 slugging percentage (for a gargantuan 1.122 OPS). The slugging percentage in that period has been amongst the American League’s best.

More importantly, it has the Angels lineup more productive, with its bottom half anchored by its slugging catcher (Napoli has batted seventh or eighth in all but three starts this season).

The Angels and their fans are also undoubtedly aware that Napoli is perhaps the streakiest hitter in the lineup. As hot as Mike has been of late, he has a penchant for going ice-cold for long stretches.

Looking back at Napoli’s 2009 campaign, one can see in June and July he posted an OPS of 1.002 and .919, respectively. On the other hand, in August and September he put up numbers of .696 and .731, respectively. Napoli’s big bat tends to deliver “feast or famine” numbers, to be sure.

There are questions that the Angels are going to need to answer when it comes to Napoli. First off, how do they try to keep that bat hot and temper his streaky tendencies? Next (and perhaps even more pressing): When Jeff Mathis comes back from the DL, how does Napoli continue to play every day?

There is no doubt that with the bat, Napoli has done everything asked of him to justify everyday play throughout his career; his 2010 numbers will no doubt give All-Star voters pause.

However, his career high in games played came in 2009—just 114. Before that, Mike had never played in more than 99 games (as a rookie in 2006).

The first question, how the Angels can keep Napoli’s bat hot, will be best answered by Napoli and Mickey Hatcher. Fans will be able to tell when Napoli is locked in with the bat, because he will consistently drive the ball to the opposite field with authority (as he did Sunday, driving a Chris Carpenter pitch deep into the right-center field stands at Busch Stadium).

The second question, where to put Napoli once Jeff Mathis comes back, is a difficult one. One true injustice in sports is when a starting player gets hurt and his replacement plays so well that the starter loses his job. If it were to happen to Mathis, it would not be the first time in the history of sports. It would be very surprising to see that happen to Mathis, however.

While Mike Napoli has made defensive strides since taking over in late April, there are few who would disagree that Mathis is the superior defender. As mentioned earlier, Mike Scioscia places high value on catcher defense.

There is little doubt, barring physical barriers, that Jeff Mathis will regain a significant portion of the catching duties upon his return.

So where to put Mike Napoli?  

One possible solution is to get Mike more consistent at-bats as the DH. There is justification for this: As a DH in 2009 (18 games and 72 ABs), Nap impressed with a .359 average, 1.024 OPS, three HR, and 11 RBI.

Oddly enough, 2009 provides the only substantial DH data for Napoli. Before 2009, he appeared as a DH just once, walking in one plate appearance as a rookie in 2006.

In 2010, Mike has been the DH just once and had a rough 0-for-3 with three strikeouts. However, getting Napoli more at-bats as the DH would require taking those ABs away from Hideki Matsui.

But when you consider Matsui’s 2010 OPS of .705 (and four extra-base hits since April 20th), that may not be the worst idea for the club to consider.

Here is one more idea, strictly from this columnist: What about giving Napoli a third baseman’s glove?

Before dismissing the idea entirely, consider the following. As mentioned on this very site, the Angels potentially have a long-term problem at third base unless Brandon Wood starts to produce (check Eric Denton’s item on the subject ).

No one appears ready to take over the position if Wood continues to falter, save Maicer Izturis (whose value is diminished if he is locked into one position).

Should someone decide to try moving Napoli, he would not be the first catcher to change positions. Craig Biggio came up as a catcher, as did Angels Hall of Famer Brian Downing.

There are even high-profile examples of catchers moving to third base: Johnny Bench played 195 career games at third with a .929 fielding percentage. Phil Nevin finally realized his All-Star potential after the Angels traded their backup catcher to San Diego and he became their everyday third baseman.

The idea of moving Napoli to third base is, admittedly, “outside the box” thinking that is unlikely to come true. What is true, however, is that the Angels are a better ballclub—with a better lineup—when a productive Mike Napoli is part of it.

For hitters as streaky as Mike, time spent on the bench can have resounding negative effects. Batters like Napoli need to hit their way through their slumps.

So to the Angels, I humbly suggest: Give Mike Napoli at least 450 at-bats for the first time in his career. Let’s see if he has that 35-plus-homer potential. Give him the ABs at catcher and at DH, and don’t be afraid to try new ideas to keep him in the lineup.

At 28 years old, Mike Napoli is in his prime years as a hitter and approaching his final year of arbitration before free agency arrives…isn’t it about time that the Angels find out how great he can be?

For more Angels coverage visit LA Angels Insider.com

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They may have beaten Toronto to win their latest three-game series, but many of the same problems that have plagued the L.A. Angels through their first two months of the season were still evident Wednesday.

Horrible defense. Horrible bullpen. Horrible intensity.

* Juan Rivera forgets how many outs there are, and almost gets picked off in a key part of the game.

* The underachieving Howie Kendrick almost hits into a double play, when all he had to do was hit the ball in the air to win the game. The man that has been touted as the “future batting champion” for the past five years is now hitting .257.

* Bobby Abreu commits his fifth error of the year by slowing up on a fly ball to shallow right and dropping it—putting the tying run on second base in the ninth.

Let me just repeat that: Five errors in two months of playing right field. That gives him a .938 fielding percentage through 45 games—the worst among outfielders in the majors.

* Brian Fuentes ultimately blows another save—only to thieve another win away from Joel Piñeiro. 

Abreu atoned for his defensive sins with a walk-off hit in the bottom of the ninth, which really cloaked another sloppy game for the Halos.

Here is the good news.

The Angels get to play virtually nothing but horrible teams for the next month.

The bad news is, their opponents are probably thinking they are lucky to get to play the Angels, who have now managed to pull within three games of .500.

The Angels had an unusually tough schedule to start the season. They have already played Boston, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, St. Louis, Texas and the New York Yankees a total of 29 times in their first 49 games.

In those 29 games against contending teams, the Angels had a record of 8-21. Against all other opponents, they are an amazing 15-5.

Considering that lopsided statistic, June might be just what the doctor ordered for the Angels—a steady prescription of anemic teams to find their stroke against. In fact, their next 14 games are all against Seattle, Kansas City, and Oakland.

The only teams they will play in the next 29 games with winning records are the Dodgers, and Colorado. The Angels always play their cross-town rivals tough, and Colorado is playing at two games over .500.

The June finale will be against first place Texas before the Angels begin July with another light stretch against Kansas City, Chicago, and Oakland.

Given that schedule, don’t be shocked if you see the Angels emerge from June with a record that is at least 10 games over .500.

That being said, the Angels are going to have to beat a good team sometime. They miraculously won a three-game series against the Yankees, but wins against teams with winning records have been few, and far between this season.

Hopefully June can help them get their groove back, since they have proven they are at least still good enough to dominate second-rate ballclubs. They are going to need to find their swagger soon if they have any interest in seeing their seventh playoff appearance in nine years materialize.

Too bad they won’t get to play Kansas City if and when they get there.

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Ervin “El Magic” Santana was at his best Thursday night against the Chicago White Sox. In seven innings, Santana allowed seven hits and three walks, striking out six and surrendering just one unearned run. His stuff gave AL homer leader Paul Konerko fits all evening (0-for-3 off Ervin with two K’s, and 0-for-5 with three K’s on the night).

In his last two starts, Santana seems to be getting on a roll. Over those two starts, he has beaten Oakland and Chicago. The right-hander has tossed 13 innings, giving up a total of two earned runs (1.38 ERA), walking six and striking out 12 (a high walk total, but a good K-to-BB ratio of 2:1). Both those starts, as you would imagine, were wins for Santana. Overall for the season, he now sits at 3-3, with a 3.75 ERA.  

So now, here’s the question: has “El Magic” really turned the corner and gotten on a roll? Looking closely at the numbers, some concerns begin to surface.

Santana’s 2009 season was a tough one, primarily because of injury troubles that kept his velocity down. He was limited to just 139.2 innings, and posted an 8-8 record with a 5.03 ERA and 1.48 WHIP… nothing to write home about.

However, some of his magic resurfaced in the postseason. Placed in the bullpen for the Angels’ ALCS showdown with New York, Ervin was outstanding. In four relief appearances he posted a 1.59 ERA and whiffed five Yankees in 5.2 innings pitched. Certainly with that rebound in the postseason, the Angels entered 2010 with high hopes for a return to dominance from Ervin Santana.

The returns so far in 2010 have been mixed (seems like that could be written for every facet of the team so far, doesn’t it?). Santana got off to a slow start this season, posting an April that looked more 2009 struggles were on the horizon: 1-2, 4.59 ERA, six HR in just 33.1 innings. When May came along, however, Santana turned the record around. In May so far, Ervin is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and just three HR in 26.2 innings.

One could say that those May numbers are proof: Ervin is back! However, there are other numbers to consider. While it is true that Santana’s April was a losing month with a pedestrian ERA, he did post a pretty strong WHIP ratio of 1.23 in the season’s first month. Perhaps he was a little unlucky in April?

On the other hand, his improved May record and ERA come with a surprising (and somewhat alarming) companion stat: a 1.54 WHIP ratio in the month. To put that in perspective, most quality major league starters need to have a WHIP of roughly 1.20 to have sustained success. 1.54 means essentially that for every two innings a pitcher works, he will have a total of three baserunners.

To say that Ervin Santana has been much more lucky in May than in April is an understatement. Bear in mind also that defensive miscues do not factor into WHIP: this ratio strictly counts walks and hits (events over which Santana holds more control). There is some cause for concern in Halo Country if Santana continues to give up baserunners at his May clip.

There is another angle to consider as well. Taking a look at Santana’s nine starts this season, one can see five Quality Starts (at least six IP and three ER or less). Those five quality starts have been against Toronto, Cleveland, Boston, Oakland and Chicago. These five teams have combined for an overall W-L record of 98-108, with only two—Toronto and Boston—with records above .500. These teams also have, with the exception of Toronto and Boston again, poor team offensive numbers:

Toronto: .242/.310/.459– 769 team OPS
Cleveland: .246/.331/.357– 688 team OPS
Boston: .270/.348/.455– 803 team OPS
Oakland: .252/.316/.363– 679 team OPS
Chicago (AL): .233/.314/.384– 698 team OPS

So Santana’s quality starts have essentially come against under-performing teams (remember that Boston has only recently started to heat up, and Toronto’s team offensive numbers look very different if you remove Vernon Wells’ incredible start to 2010).

What about his four starts that were not Quality Starts? They came against Minnesota, New York, New York again and Seattle. Their overall combined record is 64-59 (Seattle skews that, the Twins and Yankees are 49-33). While Seattle has been a terrible offensive ball club so far (648 team OPS, worst in the AL), the Twins and Yankees are in the upper tier offensively. The Twins sport a 769 OPS, while New York is at 818.

So what do all these numbers really mean? Santana was unlucky in April, and has been lucky in May. He has beaten up on the lower-eschelon teams, while the better-hitting teams have gotten the better of him. Overall, the numbers are still pretty good.

The 3-3 record and 3.75 ERA are solid; while his overall WHIP of 1.37 is not spectacular, it places him in the AL’s top 40 (tied for 29th with Minnesota’s Scott Baker). His strikeout-to-walk ratio sits at 2.60, and his strikeouts-per-nine innings is currently 7.8. There are certainly encouraging numbers to go with the numbers that are not as impressive (opponents are batting .270 off Ervin, a rather high number).    

There is no question that Santana has electric stuff—quite possibly the best in the Angels’ rotation. There also is no question that Ervin is an enigma. He can look absolutely brilliant one night, then get knocked around his next time out.

Ervin Santana needs to take the next step in his development and become the elite pitcher he can be. At 27 years old, he is entering his prime—posting numbers like his 2008 season (16-7, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K’s) should not be unreasonable. If Ervin can come close to those 2008 numbers again, the Angels have a 1-2 punch in Weaver and Santana that can stand up against any team.

Here’s hoping that “El Magic’s” last two performances are truly the sign of great things to come, and not just predictable dominance of two of the league’s
worst-hitting teams. 

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