Kuzul

Sometimes, when you just can’t buy any hits and you really feel the need to find yourself, the best thing to do is pay a visit to the Houston Astros.

It worked for the Los Angeles Angels, anyway.

To recap, the Angels did indeed have trouble buying hits in their season-opening series against the Seattle Mariners. They managed just 17 hits and eight runs in the three games, compiling an ugly slash line of .177/.223/.313.

Not quite what you’d expect from an offense that ranked seventh in MLB in runs last year, much less one that was expected to be even better with some healthy key parts and some new additions for 2014. 

But then the Angels met the Astros on Friday night, and literally (meaning figuratively) exploded.

Mike Trout got things started with a long solo home run in the first inning. Josh Hamilton eventually added his first home run of 2014, a three-run job in the sixth inning. Kole Calhoun hit his first of the year as well.

In the end, everybody in Mike Scioscia‘s starting nine got a hit:

John McDonald added another hit as a pinch-hitter, bringing the total to 15 and prompting Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register to observe:

If you’re an Angels fan or just a fan of good offense, say it with me now: Phew.

Now, the whole Astros caveat/catch/whatever is worth re-noting. This is a team that ranked dead-last in MLB in ERA last year, and the Angels started off on Friday night facing a guy who had a hand in that. Astros starter Lucas Harrell had a 5.86 ERA in 36 games (22 starts).

Still, it was just a matter of time before this Angels offense had a night like Friday night.

They won’t be scoring in the double digits every night, but there should be no mistaking that what happened on Friday night is much, much more like the true Angels offense than the offense that got shut down by Seattle to start the season.

They keep all kinds of snazzy projections over at FanGraphs, among them being projections for how much WAR teams stand to get out of their hitters. If you follow that link and take a look, what you should see is a projection for the Angels to get 26.0 WAR out of their hitters in 2014.

It may not sound like much, but that’s the best projection out of all American League clubs. Therefore, SCIENCE says that the Angels should have the best collective offense in Junior Circuit.

Granted, this is mainly due to the presence of Trout. He was worth 10.0 WAR in 2012, 10.4 WAR in 2013 and, wouldn’t you know it, he’s already leading the American League with 0.6 WAR in 2014. Contrary to popular belief, things don’t change.

Trout’s baserunning and defensive talents are a big reason why he’s so good at WAR, but his bat is certainly the main reason. And to this end, Trout’s not alone in the Angels lineup. 

We can put it this way:

Note: Those projected numbers are ZiPS projections that can be found here.

If you’re not familiar with OPS+, it’s a version of OPS that adjusts for home ballparks and league quality and puts everything on a scale where 100 represents average. Anything over 100 is above average. 

Point being: There really aren’t many easy outs among Scioscia‘s collection of regulars. To boot, even the ones that are there are debatable.

Erick Aybar isn’t quite as easy an out as his track record says he is, as he’s posted an OPS+ over 100 in three of five seasons. David Freese, meanwhile, is absolutely a candidate to outperform his projection after posting an OPS+ over 100 in each of his five seasons in St. Louis.

If there’s one thing I’m not sure about, it’s that 133 OPS+ projected for Albert Pujols. That’s not far off from the rock-solid 138 OPS+ he had when he was healthy in 2012. Asking him to return to that level coming off an injury-ruined 2013 season is asking a lot.

The trade-off, however, could be that Hamilton outperforms his modest projection, which he’s already well on his way to do.

Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com did a pretty good job of hitting the nail on the head here:

Through four games in 2013, Hamilton had one hit and two walks in 19 plate appearances. He had struck out eight times. Next to that, the .462/.563/.769 slash line he has in the early going this year looks even better.

You can count his manager as one who doesn’t think Hamilton’s hot start is a fluke.

“I definitely get that sense, and I think the patience is coming from being comfortable in the box,” Scioscia said Wednesday, via Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register. “I think he’s in a real good comfort zone. His head is still, he’s seeing the ball really well and that’s gonna lead to a little bit better pitch selection when he’s swinging the bat.”

If there’s one statistic that confirms what Scioscia is talking about, it’s O-Swing%. It’s a FanGraphs favorite that measures the percentage of pitches batters swing at outside the strike zone, making it a go-to metric to find hitters with bad plate discipline.

It’s on that note that I present Hamilton’s showings in the O-Swing% department from recent seasons:

• 2011: 41.0
• 2012: 45.4
• 2013: 41.2
• 2014: 27.6

Between 2011 and 2013, Hamilton was extremely aggressive in expanding the strike zone. In fact, he was right up there with Jeff Francoeur. 

But so far in 2014? Nuh uh. Hamilton has been a totally different player.

Now, this obviously stems from an absurdly small sample size, as the O-Swing% you see for 2014 hasn’t even been updated to include Friday night’s game. Just because Hamilton is this disciplined now doesn’t mean he’s going to be this disciplined all season.

It’s definitely a good sign, though, and I can further drive home the point by noting this: The last time Hamilton finished with an O-Swing% under 40 was in 2010, the year he hit .359 and won the AL MVP.

Looking forward, the Angels know that their offense will at least have a pretty decent floor as long as Trout is around and still playing like Trout. The offense that finished seventh in runs scored last year was basically him and a collection of spare parts, after all.

But Trout shouldn’t have to do it all by himself this year. He’s surrounded by quality hitters, among which should be at least one other stud. This Angels offense shouldn’t be about its floor. It should be about its ceiling.

And if Friday night’s blowout is any indication, it will be.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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For young, emerging superstars, contracts and earning power often become a combination of risk, reward and timing. For Mike Trout, the stars aligned in the form of a $144.5 million contract extension from the Los Angeles Angels, setting the once-in-a-generation all-around baseball genius up for now and later.

The news, per Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, sent shock waves through the baseball community late on Friday evening.

With the ink still drying on Miguel Cabrera’s $248 million extension, Trout earned his own payday, re-writing the narrative and record books for players with limited service time. According to Gonzalez’s source, the deal will ensure Trout is baseball’s highest-paid player relative to service time at every juncture of the breakdown.

At first glance, Trout’s payday sets him up for life. For the average fan, the idea of making $144.5 million is ludicrous and a life-changing decision. 

Yet, by eschewing year-to-year arbitration dances with the Angels, Trout forfeited the right to hit free agency at the age of 26. Had the dynamic, two-way center fielder declined this offer, played out his initial contract and hit free agency in 2018, the richest contract in professional sports would have likely been waiting for him. 

Despite the allure of becoming the first $350 or $400 million athlete in history, Trout had to take this deal, even if it meant delaying that inevitable trip to the land of suitors, blank check books and impetuous owners looking to make a splash. 

Why?

Risk, reward and timing.

While any open-minded baseball observer can project what Trout can become and accomplish over the next handful of years, there’s no way of knowing what will definitely occur. With injuries or a young, unforeseen decline hit, potential earning power could be curtailed in a significant way.

Consider this: From 2005-2008—during what were his first four full big league seasons—the American League‘s best center fielder hit 107 home runs, stole 115 bases and was worth 24.6 WAR. Over that span, only three players—Albert Pujols, Chase Utley and Alex Rodriguez—were more valuable, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

Looking back, it would have been easy to project Grady Sizemore for riches in free agency. That, of course, never happened. Injuries derailed what looked to be the start of a Hall of Fame career. Now, years after those star-level seasons, Sizemore is attempting to re-write his story in Boston on a $750,000 base salary.

To be fair, Sizemore wasn’t Trout. Trout owns 20.3 WAR before his age-22 season starts, while Sizemore just began to ascend and take off at the age Trout is now. Still, great young players don’t always have a linear trek to immortality. 

By signing the deal now, Trout is rewarded for what he’s done, while attempting to improve without the worry of a future deal hanging over him.  

Assuming baseball’s best player doesn’t become a “what if?” story for years to come, Trout’s career should unfold with an array of accolades and MVP awards. By the time he does hit the free-agent market at 29, unimaginable future earnings will still be possible.

By signing this deal, Trout eliminated the theoretical 12-year, $400 million deal from coming across his agent’s desk in 2018.  

That has now been replaced by two headline-making possibilities: The six-year, $144.5 million pact and a future deal—factoring in baseball’s burgeoning revenue streams and inflation—that could be worth an annual salary of $40 million. 

Essentially, Trout traded in the chance to cash in on his talent once for the opportunity to do it twice before the age of 30. Even if you believe he gave the Angels a break right now—as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argues—riches will be there later.

The five most lucrative contracts in baseball history belong to Alex Rodriguez, Alex Rodriguez (yes, again), Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano. Take a look at the age each player was the season before signing their respective mega deals. 

At 29, Trout will have the chance to exceed all of those numbers.

Last, but certainly not least for a player without a career at-bat in October, is timing.

By taking the 10-year or “lifetime” pact off the table with the Angels, Trout leaves his options open for the future. Financially, his current franchise should always have the ability to pay him top dollar, but if the New Jersey native wants to flee to greener—or more successful—pastures in 2020, he can do it in his prime. 

At some point, winning becomes a major priority for each player. If Trout wins big in L.A. over the next seven seasons, there’s little reason to believe he would leave for a different market or team.

If the Angels continue to fumble their way through putting a competitive outfit on the field, big-market teams like the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Mets and crosstown Dodgers would all have ample time to clear the books and allocate the necessary funds to land Trout down the line.

By signing this deal, Trout achieved the best possible outcome any young superstar could hope for: Money now, money later, and the ability to re-write his narrative before the age of 30.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

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The 2014 MLB season is finally here, which means fans should be on the lookout for some upcoming milestones. 

Albert Pujols is closing in on his 500th career home run. Watch the video to take a look back at Pujols’ accomplishments during his career and to look forward to the moment when he can join one of the most exclusive clubs in sports.

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The Los Angeles Angels and Albert Pujols have to be hoping the third time’s the charm.

During Pujols’ first two seasons with the team, the club’s performance as a whole has been disappointing, while Pujols’ individual production in each year might best be described as an acceptable progression of a decline (2012) followed by injury-marred disaster (2013).

So far this spring, here are his numbers through Monday’s game: .258 batting average, .351 on-base percentage and .323 slugging percentage.

That’s right, the man with eight years and more than $200 million left on his contract who needs all of eight more homers to reach 500 for his career is currently sporting an S-L-G lower than his O-B-P.

While it’s perfectly justifiable to be shouting, “But it’s only spring training!” at your computer screen right now, it’s just as justifiable to remind you that Pujols and the Angels both need 2014 to start off a lot better than either of his first two years in Los Angeles did.

To that point, entering May 2012, the Halos were just 8-15 while Pujols’ OPS was a mere .570—the lowest ever in his career and it came in his first month with his new team!—and after April 2013, those numbers were 9-17 and .762, respectively.

As for March 2014, Pujols told Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, “Compared to last year when I came here, by the second week of spring training, it was my plantar. I was really frustrated. So I’m really excited and happy how I’m playing first base and how I’m moving.”

Indeed, it’s good to see Pujols, who was one of the better defenders at first base for several years before injuries hampered his lower half, getting back into a groove in the field. This month, he’s already made a handful of nice plays with the glove, while also showing improved movement, both side to side like this:

And this:

As well as coming in on the ball quickly, like so:

With the stick, it’s been a bit of a different story to this point, as mentioned above.

With exactly two weeks left until the Angels opener on March 31 against the Seattle Mariners, Pujols has managed eight hits in 31 at-bats for a respectable enough average (.258), and he’s walked as many times as he’s whiffed (four apiece), which suggests he’s seeing the ball well enough. Still, with only two of those knocks going for extra bases—both doubles—it’s fair to wonder: Where’s the power?

Chances are, it’ll be there during the games that count, especially if Pujols really is healthy and feeling better in his lower half. Remember, this is a guy who had knee surgery in the winter leading up to last season and then dealt with chronic plantar fasciitis pretty much all year—until he flat-out tore the connective tissue in the arch of his left foot early in the second half.

That ended Pujols’ season after just 99 games, only 34 of which came at first base, simply because he was hurting too much to play the field on a regular basis. In all likelihood, at least some of Pujols’ struggles in his career-worst campaign can be attributed to both of those ailments.

While the hits, particularly those of the extra-base variety, have been few and far between during the first portion of spring training, evidence does exist that vintage Pujols is in fact still around, getting his timing back and could be coming out to play more than he did last year:

As Pujols told Gonzalez:

Remember, I missed 300 at-bats last year. I’ve never gone this long without seeing live pitching. This is my first time in my 13-, 14-year career. But I feel better. It seems like my first week I was a little bit uncomfortable, but I started seeing the ball better, getting better at-bats, seeing pitches.

Of course, it wasn’t a good thing Pujols missed the final two months of 2013, but perhaps it wasn’t exactly a bad thing, either. When he fully tore his plantar fascia while hitting a two-run single last July, Pujols essentially gave himself the surgery he had been needing for quite some time—and also gave himself a chance to rest up and recover for an extra eight weeks.

While Pujols, now 34 and amid the second half of his Hall of Fame career, is clearly regressing, ultimately, his health, which failed him miserably last year and led to his worst-ever season, made the pace of that decline look a lot more accelerated than it might actually be.

Will Pujols bounce back to the superstar he was when he was the best hitter on the planet only a few years ago? No, but a return to health could help him approach his 2012 level of production, when he hit .285/.343/.516 with 30 homers and 105 RBI.

On this third time around for Pujols and the Angels, the hope has to be that a healthy left foot will be the charm to help him and the team get off on the right foot.

Statistics come from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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Somebody recently asked Albert Pujols if he was motivated to put up numbers like those of fellow Los Angeles Angels superstar Mike Trout. Pujols didn’t take kindly to that and was still stewing about it in a more recent interview this week.

Now here we come to wag our finger. It is, after all, our duty as People of the Internet to react to situations like these. And in this case, here’s why finger-wagging is warranted:

Pujols just has the wrong idea, man. The question he was asked wasn’t an insulting one. It was actually a valid question. Surprisingly so, in fact.

Pujols, as we’re all abundantly aware, hasn’t been so great in his first two years in an Angels uniform. Thanks in part to injuries he suffered in 2013, he’s hit just .275/.338/.485 as an Angel. Very un-Pujols-like numbers, indeed.

Thus early on in spring training came the question—Jesse Spector of the Sporting News says it was his—about whether Pujols might rebound well enough in 2014 to put up Trout-like numbers. Though it was a while ago, it was still on Pujols’ mind when he spoke to Bob Nightengale of USA Today this week:

Can you imagine someone saying that to me? I felt like saying, ‘Come on, are you serious? Are you really asking me that? Check out my numbers. I know what Mike Trout has done in his first two years is pretty special, but will you look at my numbers. I’ve been doing this for almost 14 years.’

The only guy in baseball who can match the numbers I’ve put up is Barry Bonds, and someone is actually asking if I can put up numbers like Mike Trout?

Are you freaking kidding me?

I’ll be honest: My initial reaction to these comments was something like, “Damn right! You tell ’em, Albert!” It would have been better if the question had been whether Pujols could get back to being the hitter he once was. If it’s strictly hitting we’re talking about; surely Trout hasn’t been as good as that guy.

But then I actually ventured to look. And…yeah, it turns out that Trout now and Pujols then is actually a solid comparison.

Since we’ve gone and strayed into Trout fanboy territory, here’s where you might be expecting something about Wins Above Replacement and what it has to say about Trout’s general awesomeness.

Nope. Not even gonna go there.

Instead, we’re going to focus strictly on the kinds of numbers that Pujols clearly had in mind when he spouted off. Because Pujols is one of the greatest hitters ever, you’d think that there would be a notable disparity between his and Trout’s hitting numbers. 

Whether you look at it from one direction or another direction, there’s actually not.

Regarding the first direction, the first thing I did was use Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs to look up how Trout’s rate stats in his first two full seasons (2012-2013) to compare them to Pujols’ rate stats from his first two seasons (2001-2002). You know, just to see if Trout’s off to as good a start at the plate as the one Pujols got off to.

Survey says:

Pujols was an outstanding hitter from the get-go, hitting for average, getting on base and slugging at terrific rates. Trout, however, only has a disadvantage in the power department. And because he’s put up his numbers in a much harsher run-scoring environment, it’s no surprise that he has huge edges in park- and league-adjusted stats like wRC+ and OPS+.

The point: As brilliant as Pujols’ start was, Trout’s has actually been better. No small compliment, that.

That’ll do for an attention-grabber. But it is also admittedly unfair to a degree, as Pujols wasn’t yet the great Albert Pujols in 2001 and 2002.

He didn’t really enter that territory until he hit .359 with a 1.106 OPS in 2003. Between then and 2010, his OBP never dropped below .414 and his OPS never dropped below .997. Once Bonds left baseball after 2007, Pujols had the “best hitter in baseball” label all to himself.

That, indeed, was Pujols in his prime. And my, what a prime it was. Certainly good enough to make what Trout’s done in the last two seasons look like some little league stuff, right?

Actually…

The edges in the non-adjusted rate stats belong to Pujols, with by far the biggest of the bunch being in power. That was expected, as Pujols did average 42 home runs a season in that eight-year stretch.

But once again, look at wRC+ and OPS+. Pujols’ prime holds the edge over Trout’s first two full seasons, but the edge is very slim. Factor in parks and run-scoring environments, and there’s virtually no difference between what Pujols was doing then and what Trout is doing now. In essence, “Trout numbers” means the same thing now as “Pujols numbers” did then.

So you know how I said it would have been better if the question had been whether Pujols could get back to being his old self? Well, that essentially was the question. 

Now, granted, Trout indeed hasn’t been raking all that long. Two great years does not a legendary hitter make. Trout has a few more years to go before he can begin even so much as tip-toeing into the same inner circle of all-time greats in which Pujols resides.

And while we’re granting things, let’s grant that Pujols can’t be blamed for not having things like wRC+ and OPS+ on his mind when he was asked the question the first time around or when he spoke to Nightengale. It’s typically the writer’s job to convey the relevant stats. Not the other way around.

Heck, let’s go ahead and grant a third thing: Even if Pujols were to be made aware of the statistical comparisons we just saw, here’s guessing he wouldn’t take back what he said. Just judging from his tone, you know.

If so, well, I guess that means you and I will just have to be content with the knowledge that we know better. We know that when Pujols was asked about emulating Trout, he wasn’t being asked if he could handle emulating an inferior hitter.

No, what he was really being asked was whether he could manage emulating himself.

Note: stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The Los Angeles Angels enter their fourth straight spring training without the leftover confidence of making the playoffs the previous season. Consequently, with a good-sized payroll and star power on the roster, that scenario leaves a little bit of pressure to get things turned around right now.

And what better time to tidy up a mess than during the spring.

For the Angels, however, it’s not an overwhelming matter. Sure, the offseason wasn’t a complete “winner,” and the strength of the AL West has increased—in the on-paper category. But don’t expect the severity of the Angels’ to-do list to blast through so many reams of paper only a company like Dunder Mifflin could keep up with the demand.

There is hope—more than just Mike Trout—and all of it starts with simple steps in March.

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Roughly a year from now, Mike Trout is likely to find himself looking to go from being the most criminally underpaid player in MLB to being not the most criminally underpaid player in MLB.

There’s no doubt he’d succeed. It’s the degree to which he could succeed that’s the question, and coming up with a definitive answer is…Well, it proved to be trickier than I anticipated.

Here’s the deal: Trout, the Los Angeles Angels superstar and baseball demigod walking among us, will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time following the 2014 season. Assuming he doesn’t sign an extension between now and then, of course.

The thinking is that Trout, who right now is only entitled to the league minimum of $500,000, is destined to shatter the record payout of $10 million for a first-time arbitration-eligible player set by Ryan Howard in 2008.

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times spoke to a source who floated $15 million as a possibility. Thinking more conservatively, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com floated $12 million as a possibility.

Sounds about right. Beyond being younger—Trout will be through his age-22 season, whereas Howard was through his age-27 season—Trout is the superior player. Howard had power, but Trout has power, the ability to hit for average, steal bases, play excellent defense and to see through walls (probably).

However, arbitration is a unique beast. In such a way that it could be tricky for Trout to top Howard’s $10 million payout if his case were to actually go to arbitration.

Here are the criteria for determining arbitration payouts as laid down by MLB’s collective bargaining agreement:

1. The quality of the player’s most recent season
2. The length and consistency of the player’s career contribution
3. The record of the player’s past compensation
4. Comparative baseball salaries
5. The existence of any physical or mental defects
6. The recent performance record of the player’s club

In regards to the first two, if we dial up FanGraphs and plug in what Steamer is projecting for Trout in 2014, we get:

Steamer basically sees Trout having a typical Trout season in 2014, which makes sense given how not close to the end of his prime he is. And if it’s WAR we’re focusing on, it’s worth noting that no hitter in history has ever compiled as much as 30 WAR through his age-22 season.

It’s whether said arbitration panel would care that’s the question.

Ken Rosenthal made a point of comparing WARs in discussing Trout and Howard, but it wouldn’t be in an arbitration panel’s character to do something like that. Here’s Maury Brown of BizofBaseball.com writing for FanGraphs in 2010:

Because the arbitration process ultimately could be determined by a panel of arbitrators, not of a baseball background but from the American Arbitration Association, no advanced stats are used to compare players. So, no WAR. No wOBA. What you get are the traditional stats, with the likes of OPS and WHIP just now making its way into the arbitration panel vernacular.

Other things that help in arbitration: awards and honors. The more of those a player has, the better.

Thus is it not surprising that Howard holds the record for a first-time arbitration payout. At the time, he was coming off a 47-homer, 136-RBI season in 2007. The year before, he had won the NL MVP after leading the league in homers (58) and RBI (149). The year before that, he won the Rookie of the Year.

Trout does have a Rookie of the Year. He might have an MVP by the time he goes to arbitration. What he won’t have are old-school counting stats to match the ones Howard had in 2008. The 27-homer, 83-RBI season Trout is projected to have in 2014 would pale in comparison to Howard’s 2007 season. Nor will Trout have the 129 homers and 353 RBI Howard had at the time.

On top of that is the complication that team performance (No. 6) matters. Howard and the Philadelphia Phillies won the NL East in 2007. Trout and the Angels might not be up to the task of winning a loaded AL West in 2014.

Point being: Trout may be looking to beat Howard’s payout this time next year, but using Howard as a comp to do so might not work. Not unless the arbitration panel were to play against type and buy into Trout’s sabermetric excellence.

We’d be having a different discussion if there was a recent and relevant test case for Trout, but there’s only one that might have been: Andrew McCutchen.

Like Trout, McCutchen is a center fielder with a good ability to get on base, good power, good speed and a good glove. The Pittsburgh Pirates star was heading into his final pre-arb season in 2012, at the end of which his service time was going to be somewhere in the 3.000 (years, days) range, the same place Trout is going to be after 2014.

McCutchen would have been in line for quite the payday given what he did in 2012: a .327 average, 29 homers, 20 stolen bases, 96 RBI, an All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and a top-five MVP finish. But by that time, he was already taken care of.

The Pirates inked McCutchen to a six-year, $51.5 million contract in March of 2012, buying out his final pre-arb year, all three arbitration years and two free-agent years in the process. What would have been a relevant arbitration case for Trout was nixed. 

Darn. I guess this puts us in best-guess territory.

One thing the Angels might try to do is copy what the Cincinnati Reds did with Joey Votto in 2011: Just buy out three arbitration years in one fell swoop.

The Reds did that with a three-year, $38 million extension that paid Votto an average of $12.66 million per year. This was instead of the $7-ish million Maury Brown floated as a possible first-time arbitration payout. Votto‘s salary would have risen from there, so what the Reds did was buy a bigger package for cheap rather than a small package for cheap.

Maybe the Angels could do a three-year, $45-50 million pact with Trout. For him, that would mean good money coming his way even if his career took an unexpected turn for the worse. He’d also still be set to hit free agency after only his age-25 season. 

For the Angels, a deal like that would ultimately be cheaper than the $15-20-25 million progression that Bill Shaikin suggested for Trout’s arbitration years, and about in the range of the more conservative $12-16-20 million progression Ken Rosenthal floated. It could also make Trout receptive to talking a bigger, longer extension a short way down the road, just like the one Votto and the Reds pulled off in 2012.

But it’s up to Trout. If he gives off signals that the Angels have a better chance of buttering him up for an extension by playing his salary by ear on a year-to-year basis, then so be it. And rather than risk things getting messy in arbitration, the best thing for the Angels will be to reach fair compromises with Trout.

Starting in 2015, that would mean sucking it up and giving Trout a salary that would top the $10 million Howard got. Maybe an arbitration panel wouldn’t go for Trout as the best player in the universe based on the old-school stats, but it’s going to be in the Angels’ interest to not jerk Trout around.

What would get the trick done? Probably something in that $12-15 million range. For the heck of it, let’s call it an even (not actually “even,” but whatever) $13.5 million.

The line from A to B that I’ve drawn is a squiggly one. It would be less squiggly if it was obvious that Trout has a shot at topping Howard’s record first-year payout by going to arbitration, but the process’ notorious preference for old-school stats and individual honors make that no sure thing.

But since the Angels don’t want to risk souring their relationship with Trout, something will get done. Whether it’s a Votto-esque multiyear deal or a simple one-year compromise, the smart money’s on Trout getting his due.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The largest contract in MLB history stands at $275 million. What we’re here to discuss is the prospect of Mike Trout one day putting that to shame with a $400 million contract.

“Ridiculous” might be the first word that comes to mind. Or maybe one of those weird hybrid words like “absurdulous.”

But the possibility is neither ridiculous nor absurdulous, my friends. Considering what he has working for him, $400 million for Trout would actually be quite reasonable if the stars align just right.

We’ll get to that. But first, a bit of background.

To my knowledge, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports was the first to take a serious stab at forecasting a potential mega-contract for Trout. On the heels of the Los Angeles Angels superstar’s remarkable 2012 season, Passan wrote that Trout could one day have a “reasonable case” to be baseball’s first $300 million player.

But that was then. This is now, and what we know now that we didn’t know then is that Trout’s 2012 season was no tease.

Maybe you don’t need the numbers. But since they’re fun numbers to look at, we’ll look at them anyway. Here’s the good stuff from FanGraphs:

Trout’s not the best at everything. He’s just among the best at everything like nobody else in the league. He is baseball’s most dominant all-around player, and it’s scary how not close it is. Nobody else has compiled more than 15.0 WAR over the last two seasons.

Also scary is the fact that Trout’s only through his age-21 season. WAR-wise, nobody so young has ever been so good. FanGraphs has Trout’s 21.1 career WAR (2011 included, mind you) as the best ever for a player through the age of 21. So does Baseball-Reference.com.

In Trout, we’re witnessing a legit once-in-a-generation talent. Further, it’s OK to acknowledge that we’re witnessing a player who has a head start at becoming the greatest the game has ever known.

As such, it’s hardly surprising that ESPN’s Buster Olney has recently spoken to some people in the know who have been willing to get much more bold than Passan.

“Twelve years, $400 million,” one agent suggested shortly after the winter meetings. 

Olney subsequently spoke to a talent evaluator who scoffed at the notion at first. And then…

“But then you think about it,” he said. “Robinson Cano is a decade older than Trout and he just got $240 million. Trout is 22 years old and he’s a better player than Cano right now.”

Trout is so good right now that he’s worth more than the $33.3 million per year he would make in a 12-year, $400 million contract. Heck, he’s even worth more than the $40 million per year he would make in a $400 million deal over just 10 years.

We know this because FanGraphs has a handy way of converting WAR into dollar value. In the last two years, Trout has been worth:

• 2012: $44.9 million
• 2013: $52.1 million

Such is life when you’re a 10-WAR player. And right now, Trout’s the only player in MLB who would know.

Now, there’s no way we can know for certain that Trout’s going to keep it up. Maybe somebody will come up with a genius and easily copycatted solution for keeping him contained. If not that, maybe injuries will do the trick.

But since we’re being optimistic here, let’s take Oliver’s word for it.

Oliver is a projection system that, in the words of The Hardball Times, “uses a simple weighted mean of the previous three seasons, with aging factors and regression to the mean.” Via FanGraphs, here’s what the system sees for Trout over the next five seasons:

In other words, Trout is projected to be himself. And that makes sense, because we know he’s superbly talented and far from the highway to the danger zone that is the age of 30. Trout just needs to stay healthy.

The catch, if you’ll pardon the pun, is that Trout will very likely have to stay healthy to land a $400 million contract. If he’s going to get a deal like that, it will probably be a free-agent contract rather than an extension.

The Angels already have enough big-money players on their books. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver are all owed escalating salaries over the next several years. If the Angels are determined to stay under the luxury tax threshold, they need Trout to be as cheap as possible.

One thing the Angels could do is sign Trout to a deal that’s backloaded like crazy. But they already have a guy with a deal like that, as Pujols is owed $114 million over the final four years of his 10-year, $240 million contract. 

Besides which, Trout’s interests have to be considered. He might prefer a shorter extension that would allow him to hit free agency in his prime rather than a long extension that would cover his best free-agent years.

My guess is that something in the $200 million range is the most reasonable possibility for an extension for Trout, with $300 million probably being the Angels’ max. Trout could settle for something like that, or he could just wait until free agency.

Don’t be surprised if that’s what he chooses to do. His free agency isn’t that far off, and it promises to be worth the wait.

Trout is due for free agency after 2017. He’ll only be through his age-25 season if he gets there. Since most players hit the market in their late-20s or early-30s, Trout hitting the market in his mid-20s would make him the most attractive free agent since a guy named Alex Rodriguez in 2000.

If the Oliver projections for Trout come true, here’s how his free-agent resume would stack up against A-Rod’s when he went to free agency:

Trout would go to free agency a year older than Rodriguez was. If his Oliver projections come to fruition, he would also head to free agency with fewer career home runs under his belt.

But A-Rod’s advantages end there. It’s conceivable that Trout will head into free agency both more experienced and more accomplished than A-Rod was in 2000-01, which is saying a lot.

And if this is how it plays out, then a 10- or 12-year deal worth $400 million wouldn’t be nearly as absurd as the 10-year, $252 million contract A-Rod received from the Texas Rangers. Not relatively speaking, anyway.

While I couldn’t find data for the 2002 season, here’s how MLB’s average salary has progressed since the 2000 season, courtesy of data from the Associated Press:

The $252 million deal A-Rod signed was worth $25.2 million per year—or over 13 times what the average player was making the previous season. 

The $33.3 million per year Trout would earn in a 12-year, $400 million contract would be less than 10 times what the average player is making now. A 10-year deal worth $40 million per year would be worth just under 12 times what the average player is making now.

And again, this is now we’re talking about. The average MLB salary is going nowhere but up, and there’s more than enough money in the game now to make sure it keeps going up. The average salary could be $4 million come 2017, in which case a $40 million-per-year deal for Trout would be only 10 times as much as the average player’s salary.

Considering this, the following notion deserves to be thrown out there: Rather than $400 million, how about $500 million?

That’s the number we might be kicking around as a fair deal for Trout a couple years from now when his free agency is looming. If not, here’s guessing nobody will be hesitating to say $400 million. If it sounds fair now, it will certainly sound fair later.

Trout will be rolling the dice if he chooses the patient path that leads toward him striking it rich in free agency after 2017. There’s certainly a possible scenario out there that involves him rejecting a mega-extension and then watching his career tragically unravel.

But if Trout gets to free agency unscathed, he’ll find it worth his while. He would enter as the most attractive free agent to ever hit the open market and would very likely leave as baseball’s first $400 million man.

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At first glance the numbers seem preposterous; $400 million for a single player? 

Not even Alex Rodriguez‘s gaudy $275 million figure comes close. Not a single player in Major League Baseball history has ever even cracked the $300 million mark.

In fact, Rodriguez ranks both first and second when it comes to all-time record salaries. His previous 10-year, $250 million contract comes in second.

Albert Pujols couldn’t crack $300 million when he reached free agency. He wound up signing for 10 years and $240 million with the Los Angeles Angels.

Robinson Cano attempted to become the first player to reach $300 million when his agent, Jay-Z, asked the Yankees for such a figure during the regular season, but he fell short and also landed at 10 years and $240 million this offseason (still the third-largest contract in history by the way, not too shabby for falling short).

Then there’s Mike Trout.

ESPN’s Buster Olney posed the question, could Trout become baseball’s first $400 million man? (Insider access needed).

The 22-year-old is already entering his third full season in 2014, fourth overall if you count the 40 games he played in 2011 as a 19-year-old, and will reach arbitration for the first time following this coming season. 

There’s no doubt that Trout will shatter every arbitration salary record if the Angels do not come to terms with him on a contract extension between now and next offseason. At 22 years old, he already boasts a Rookie of the Year award, a pair of All-Star appearances, a pair of Silver Slugger Awards and two runner-up finishes in MVP balloting. 

In his piece for ESPN, Olney quotes an anonymous agent as recommending that Trout and his agent do the unprecedented and ask for a 12-year, $400 million contract. This would pay Trout an average of $33.33 million per season. 

I asked a long-time agent who does not represent Trout what he might ask for in a negotiation for a multiyear deal, and he paused for a few moments, like someone savoring a good piece of steak. 

“Why not do something that’s never been done before?” he asked rhetorically. 

What do you mean? 

“Twelve years, $400 million.” 

Considering his age and that he is already arguably the best player in the game, and he hasn’t even reached his peak yet, it’s very hard to argue that he won’t become the first player to crack the $30 million per season mark anyway, making the suggestion, actually, somewhat considerable from the Angels’ standpoint.

If the Angels were to bypass the arbitration process and give him the record-shattering 12-year contract now, the pact would take them to his age-34 season, still young enough that they shouldn’t see the type of decline that has come along with other 10-year contracts—something the Angels could be wary of following their current deals with Pujols and Josh Hamilton (5 years, $133 million).

At 26 years old when he reaches free agency, there’s no doubt that Trout will still command a 10-year deal and could push beyond that if he hasn’t suffered any injuries and proves durable. How much more will his stock rise if the Angels choose to save a little now by going the arbitration route and limiting him to salaries in the $15-20 million range rather than ponying up and making him the highest-paid player in the game?

Really, by the age of 22, only Pujols and Rodriguez compare to Trout in terms of modern day salary negotiations. Rodriguez was 25 when he reached his then-record-setting deal of 10 years, $250 million with the Texas Rangers back in 2001. Add 16 years worth of inflation to that number and the presumption that Trout is beyond reproach in performance-enhancing drug (PED) discussions and you have the makings for a figure well above $300 million at the 10-year mark.

Pujols didn’t sign his deal until his age-32 season to begin 2012, exemplifying the type of inflation that came over the 11-year gap between his deal and the original A-Rod deal. A-Rod’s second 10-year pact, signed in 2008, was also in his age-32 season. 

Even Cano’s deal this offseason came in his age-31 season and will take him through the age of 41. 

Subtract the 10-year age difference, all those years of peak productivity, and you are left with Trout’s impending mega payday. Twelve years and $400 million just isn’t that shocking at that point, especially with him only at age 34 by the end of the deal, instead of into his 40’s.

In general, these 10-year mega deals handcuff the teams and have not proven to be worth it long term. In the case of Trout, though, someone is definitely going to hand him the largest payday in the history of the sport soon, so it might as well be the Angels. 

The risk with Trout is not a decline in production due to age as has been the case with A-Rod, Pujols and even Hamilton (and likely will be the case with Cano). Sure, he could wind up regressing, but history does not suggest that would be the case. The risk in such a deal with Trout would be injury, and teams take out insurance policies on such deals that would help cushion that risk and not cost the Angels should he become injured and not able to play out his contract. 

Having jumped in on both Pujols and Hamilton on mega deals the past couple of seasons, it would be a PR nightmare to not take the gamble on Trout and watch another team give it to him instead. 

Spend the money now and lock him up. Forget the short-term savings, give him 12 years and $400 million and hope he returns the favor in his age-34 season and signs a more team-friendly deal as he acknowledges that he is entering the twilight of his career. 

Trout can become the Derek Jeter of the West Coast and spend his entire career in one uniform. He is already set to become the new face of baseball when Jeter hangs up his cleats. 

As eye-popping as the number may be, it would be more costly to risk allowing a bidding war start when he reaches free agency. 

The Angels will profit from making Trout an Angel for life and the $400 million will come out looking like a wise investment.

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That sound you didn‘t hear following the four-day wheeling and dealing fest known as the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings is what made the Los Angles Angels so intriguing.

It was the cricket’s chirp, disguised as a collective thumbs up, instead of the disapproving roar.

The organization arguably pulled one of the biggest, if not the biggest, move in the last four days—sending Mark Trumbo to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-team deal with the Chicago White Sox that landed the Halos starting pitchers Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago.

It was impressive.

It was quick. 

Oddly enough, the Angels got “it” done, with most of the reactions toward the deal on the positive side—from what I saw, at least.

Sure, there wasn’t a major barrage of giant free-agent maneuvers or major trades the last four days by any MLB team, skewing the magnitude of what was accomplished by the Angels.

But they stayed away from self-inflicted stereotypes, moving from large, possibly draft-pick-surrendering, deals and made a solid cost-controlled effort to fix their starting pitching depth.

Both Skaggs and Santiago, based on the need to simply improve behind C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver, are a good start.

Although dealing Trumbo seemed to be a 180 from what was passed along by Angels’ general manager Jerry Dipoto no less than a week ago (The Orange County Register‘s Jeff Fletcher thought better of it via Twitter), it turned out to be the best option for getting young arms in return—in this instance anyway.

And, in the time of “Move Now,” the organization did not have the luxury of playing out a storybook scenario, where it keeps the local guy, and he miraculously rewards the gesture by leading it all the way to the World Series.

Will Trumbo be missed? Absolutely.

Power is always a good thing to have on the field, and a class act of a guy is always a good thing to have off the field. Trumbo embodied both areas.

The business side of things moves on, though.

The Angels needed starting pitching; moreover, they needed two starting pitchers. And, with one deal, they accomplished filling that need.

It’s a win—the first move in what seems like 1,000 of them where the criticism didn’t outweigh the praise.

Also, with that one move, the organization indirectly addressed another issue surrounding the 2014 roster: infield depth.

Now that Trumbo is gone, it would be hard to imagine a scenario where Howie Kendrick gets traded.

That beneficial flip-flop in trade chips gives the Angels flexibility in the infield, allowing David Freese to hold the hot corner, Erick Aybar to play shortstop, Kendrick to keep the veteran presence at second, with a nice platoon of Grant Green and Andrew Romine off the bench.

That, for now, is another win.

If the timing of everything allows Kaleb Cowart to progress in Double-A, with Romine and Green carrying their weight and progressing as well, then I would say dealing Trumbo could eventually be viewed as an organization-shifting move.

It leaves the need to fill a void of 30-plus homers that Trumbo carried, no question. And that won’t be the easiest aspect to fill.

If Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton continue to fade, then I can also say this move could be viewed as the organization shifting in the wrong direction, too.

Isn’t everything in the guessing game like that? It’s a risk.

But, even with that possibility of the unknown, there has to be some feel of confidence among the Halo community.

Perhaps there really is a collective agreement in philosophy between the GM and manager Mike Scioscia.

That might be the biggest win of all, which can trickle down into a more positive clubhouse environment.

Mind you, that could have been a front for the media, saying the right things in an environment where the day is spent answering the same genre of questions.

I get that.

However, I also understand where the team was coming from, with reminders popping up every day, like the one Fox Sports’ Gabe Kapler sent out on Twitter:

That is the reality this organization cornered itself into. Now, it’s about making strides to right the ship. And the Angels are doing that, in my mind.

The organization was smart to acquire the Toronto Blue Jays‘ Rule 5 draft selection, Brian Moran, for international slot money. The left-handed reliever “annihilated left-handed hitters in Triple-A,” said Jerry Dipoto, according to MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez.

That’s never a bad thing to have, in the grand scheme of bullpen depth.

Sure, there is more work to be done with the offseason a long, long way from over. Adding another pitcher like Matt Garza would be a solid finale to the offseason—which became an actual possibility, as the money available under the tax threshold for the Angels is now around $20 million.

Until then, however, you still have to like what the Angels have done up to this point.

I do.

Winter Meetings Grade: A

Unless otherwise noted, all stats and contract info were courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Follow Rick Suter on Twitter @rick-suter.

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