The Los Angeles Angels probably don’t need to be told this, but they should feel blessed to have Mike Trout. He’s been a regular since 2012—a historically awesome regular since 2012.
But now for something that maybe the Angels do need to be told: They should be mindful of Trout’s historical awesomeness possibly going to waste.
Though the Angels didn’t watch Trout win his second straight American League MVP in 2015, they did see him enjoy his fourth straight MVP-caliber season. The 24-year-old center fielder led the AL in OPS at .991 and in WAR at 9.4, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
While we’re on the topic, WAR is still the No. 1 fan of Trout’s career to date. He rates as the best player in baseball history through the age of 23. Further, August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs dug deeper and found that only nine players have ever had better four-year runs than Trout at any age.
Consider this your midwinter reminder that Trout is really something else. Feel free to take a moment to pay homage to your personal Mike Trout shrine. We all have one, folks.
But now we must move on to where the Angels stand in all this.
The Angels aren’t about to lament what Trout has done for them, but they can’t be happy about how they’ve failed to capitalize on his greatness. They won 98 games and made the playoffs in 2014, but their drop to 85 wins in 2015 made it three of four seasons they’ve fallen short of October. On the results spectrum, that’s toward the “suboptimal” end.
And right now it’s looking like the Angels haven’t done enough to avoid a similar fate in 2016.
Granted, they haven’t been laying low this winter. Their trade for Yunel Escobar should upgrade their offense, and adding Andrelton Simmons and Geovany Soto will definitely improve their defense.
But is that sufficient?
According to FanGraphs‘ WAR projections, the Angels aren’t likely to be the best team in the AL West in 2016. In fact, they project to be worse than the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners and only as good as the Texas Rangers. This is also suboptimal.
We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: WAR projections aren’t gospel. But it’s sometimes hard to argue with them, and this is one of those times.
Trout has been awesome, but the problem the Angels have had is giving him enough support. That’s a lingering concern that hasn’t necessarily been eased by their activity this winter. Escobar‘s probable offensive upgrade may be mitigated by Simmons and Soto likely being offensive downgrades.
There are outstanding issues elsewhere too. Trout is flanked by holes in left field and second base as well as a veteran in Albert Pujols who’s only getting older and more banged up. The Angels do have solid depth in their starting rotation, but it could be better in terms of talent.
This sounds like a job for the free-agent market, a place where the Angels have made noise in the past. And if they really wanted to, they could do it again this winter. Still out there is a selection of left fielders and starting pitchers and at least one good second baseman.
The trouble, of course, is the Angels seem wary of sticking to their old habits on the open market. And in fairness, one can see why.
Over the last five seasons, the Angels’ Opening Day payroll has tended to hover around $150 million. With $142.3 million in salary commitments and $17.7 million in projected arbitration payouts, per MLB Trade Rumors, the Angels are already slated for a franchise-high $160 million payroll in 2016.
What’s more, figures compiled by Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register show the Angels’ adjusted payroll is pretty close to the $189 million luxury-tax threshold for 2016. As a result, any free-agent signing will push them over that and force them to pay a penalty.
At the outset of the offseason, that’s something Angels owner Arte Moreno seemed willing to live with under the right circumstances. As he told Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, “If it’s the right player in the right situation, we’ll do whatever is needed.”
Evidently, neither the right player nor the right situation has emerged. The way things stand now, the Angels are sending the message that they believe they’re better off not spending big money this winter.
From the outside looking in, however, it’s too easy to question their logic.
It’s arguably enough that the Angels don’t look like the clear favorites in the AL West heading into 2016—or even a clear wild-card contender, for that matter. There’s a real possibility of them making it four out of five prime-Trout seasons wasted.
Again, suboptimal.
If there’s something that could justify another postseason-less year for the Angels in 2016, it’s the notion that their best days will be in 2017 and beyond. This seems to be the angle the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are taking this winter—and for good reason. Both clubs are in a position to integrate young talent in the coming seasons, perhaps laying the groundwork for dynasties.
The Angels, though, aren’t even in the same ocean as the Yankees and Dodgers, much less the same boat.
The Angels’ farm system doesn’t feature a single prospect in MLB.com’s top 100, and even that may understate the problem. As Christopher Crawford and the Baseball Prospectus crew put it, “There are good systems. There are poor systems. Then there’s 50 pounds of effluence, and then there’s the Marlins. Add another 50 pounds, and you’ve finally reached the Angels.”
This puts the Angels at quite a disadvantage, not just when it comes to building from within, but in building through trades. Take away those two avenues, and spending is the only team-building strategy at their disposal.
To this end, maybe the Angels’ goal is to spend next winter when C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and others will go off the books. But the big problem there is that next winter’s free-agent market isn’t going to be anywhere close to as loaded as this year’s. After Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Gomez, there aren’t going to be many in-their-prime talents.
A better idea would be for the Angels to wait until after 2018 when an absurdly deep class of free agents will be available. But “better” in this case doesn’t mean “perfect.” Among that winter’s valuable free agents will be Garrett Richards, a key piece of the Angels’ current core. Also, the rising costs of Trout’s and Pujols’ contracts will render the Angels without a ton of spending power.
But that’s three whole years from now. If those three seasons go poorly, the Angels would be spending to force their window back open rather than spending to open their window even wider.
The latter is what they could be doing right now and, indeed, something they at least seem tempted to do.
Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times has reported the Angels aren’t in serious talks with players such as Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Yoenis Cespedes. But reports from DiGiovanna, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports and Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News indicate those three are at least on the Angels’ radar.
And though a deal isn’t likely, Fletcher has reported they’ve also been in touch with former Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick. The Angels seem less hung up on starting pitching, but among the options still out there are Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen and Yovani Gallardo.
Because the Angels need to restock their farm system, it’s understandable if they’re wary of players with ties to draft-pick compensation. But that list doesn’t include Cespedes or Kazmir, and one can argue the Angels shouldn’t be too fixated on the draft anyway. They hold the No. 20 pick, and the reality is they’re not going to rebuild their system in one draft, no matter what.
In all, the Angels don’t have many excuses not to spend. Their window to contend is open now, and money is all the Angels have to open it as wide as it needs to be.
It’s either that or hope Trout can somehow become even larger than life and single-handedly make the Angels a superpower. But that’s asking a bit much, even of him.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Contract and payroll data courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
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