Tag: Los Angeles Dodgers

Will Dodgers Be Patient with Joc Pederson in World Series or Bust Pressure?

Change was the theme of the offseason for the Los Angeles Dodgers, both on and off the field.

It began with an overhaul of the team’s front office, as ownership hired Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi to serve as president of baseball operations and general manager, respectively, and with those two analytic rock stars came a new approach to constructing a winning and cost-effective roster.

That led to some tough goodbyes to fan-favorite players, as Friedman and Zaidi allowed Hanley Ramirez to leave as a free agent and then traded Dee Gordon and Matt Kemp in December during the annual winter meetings.

While the Dodgers subsequently restructured their middle infield through trades for veterans Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick, the team’s decision not to replace Kemp in center field was a direct vote of confidence in prospect Joc Pederson.

Pederson enjoyed one of the better seasons in minor league history in 2014, as the 22-year-old was named MVP of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League after leading the league in home runs (33), OPS (1.017), on-base percentage (.435), runs scored (106), walks (100) and total bases (259). He also became the first Pacific Coast League player to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a season since 1934. 

Unfortunately, Pederson didn’t fare as well in his first taste of the major leagues, as the September call-up was just 4-for-28 (.143) with 11 strikeouts and nine walks in 38 plate appearances with the Dodgers.

At 6’1″, 185 pounds, Pederson is an impressive athlete with quiet strength, showcasing five average-or-better tools and good secondary skills. He projects to be a slightly above-average hitter at the highest level, with a mature approach and line-drive-oriented swing, and he already demonstrates a feel for working counts and getting on base.

The left-handed hitter has shown at least above-average power at every minor league stop, including a career-high 33 bombs in 2014. His power will play even if the average doesn’t translate, as Pederson is patient enough to wait out specific pitches each trip to the plate.

Pederson’s consistency on the basepaths rivals his power frequency, as he’s now swiped at least 26 bases in each of the last four seasons. Beyond that, his knack for getting on base and using his speed to put pressure on opposing defenses should always make him a consistent source of runs.

Pederson is a natural in the outfield, with plus range, excellent instincts and above-average arm strength, and manager Don Mattingly has previously stated he believes the 22-year-old is the “best defensive center fielder” in the organization, per Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times.

Following the season, the 22-year-old traveled to the Dominican Republic to play winter ball for the Leones del Escogido. He batted .265/.351/.361 with five extra-base hits (one home run), 13 runs scored, 10 walks and 33 strikeouts in 22 games with Escogido.

As expected, the Dodgers coaching staff and front office have been noncommittal about the possibility of Pederson, who has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues, opening the 2015 season in center field. The youngster will “have the opportunity to compete for the position” during spring training, according to Mattingly, while Zaidi has acknowledged that it’s between Pederson and Andre Ethier heading into camp. However, I’m not convinced it will be the battle they’re making it out to be.

Pederson’s potential to contribute in 2015 obviously played a major part in the Dodgers’ decision to deal Kemp, so one would think he’d have to fail pretty miserably in spring training for Ethier to win the Opening Day gig.

On top of that, the center field situation will determine the club’s outfield configuration next season, which makes it hard to believe the Dodgers would enter spring training with that much uncertainty at the position.

The Dodgers front office “would not have shipped Matt Kemp to the division-rival Padres if they didn’t believe Pederson is for real,” writes Lyle Spencer of MLB.com

Whether Pederson makes an impact and lives up to expectations will depend on his ability to make adjustments and overcome the inevitable growing pains that come along with being a rookie in the major leagues. For him, specifically, that will mean keeping his strikeout rate, which reached 27 percent last season between Triple-A and the major leagues, under control.

The Steamer and ZIPS projection models for 2015 call for Pederson to strike out somewhere in the 25 to 30 percent range, but they also like his chances of going 20-20 with a 10-plus percent walk rate in his age-23 campaign.

With Carl Crawford slated for left field and Yasiel Puig opposite him in right, Ethier would likely be the odd man out if Pederson claims center field. Suffice it to say the 32-year-old Ethier, who’s coming off a career-worst season (.249 average, four home runs in 380 plate appearances) and is still owed $56 million, would not be on board with such a role.

However, it still makes sense for the Dodgers to hang onto Ethier in 2015, argues Dilbeck, as the Kemp trade made him even more valuable to the team:

The problem is, should they trade Ethier and Pederson struggles, they could be in trouble. You almost would have to keep Ethier. He absolutely will not like it and be far from happy and cause Manager Don Mattingly a few maddening moments, but Ethier wouldn’t sour the clubhouse. He’s too much a loner. And though he was mostly great about his situation as the odd outfielder out last season, it’s not like he’s never been in a snit before.

The Dodgers potentially have something special in Joc Pederson, but they also have enough outfield depth so that he won’t be forced into an Opening Day role if he’s not ready.

Like any young power hitter, Pederson, who turns 23 in April, can be streaky at the plate, so he’s likely to experience plenty of ups and downs over a full season in the major leagues. At the same time, Pederson’s steady improvement from year to year in the minor leagues speaks to his capacity to make adjustments against advanced competition, and it should give the Dodgers enough confidence to stick with the promising center fielder through it all in 2015.

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Complete Los Angeles Dodgers 2015 Spring Training Preview

It’s been quite an offseason for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are set to kick off spring training when pitchers and catchers report to Camelback Ranch on Feb. 19.

Not only was there a change of leadership at the top with a revamped front office, but the team itself will look noticeably different from the one that saw its season end in the first round of last year’s playoffs.

New president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi wasted little time configuring the roster to align with their belief in cost-effective, analytics-based baseball.

The duo promptly traded away fan favorites Dee Gordon and Matt Kemp during the winter meetings in December after allowing Hanley Ramirez to walk in free agency. Rather than absorb a sunk cost in reliever Brian Wilson, who exercised his pricey player option for 2015, the Dodgers simply cut him outright.

Half of the infield and about 40 percent of the starting rotation will feature new faces, ones the Dodgers entrusted to carry the team back to the postseason for a third consecutive season.

Los Angeles has essentially made a gamble with its flurry of moves this winter: improved defense and more contact at the plate will make up for the loss of power in the lineup. Questions still remain about the bullpen, however, and it’s not a lock that the team can reach the 94-win plateau from last season.

Fans have heard about the metrics all winter. But now it’s finally time to take these names off a sheet of paper and instead put them on an actual field. Here’s the complete spring training preview for the 2015 Dodgers.

 

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Handicapping the Dodgers’ Hotly Contested Spring Training Position Battles

February is here, which means spring training is just around the corner for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the rest of Major League Baseball.

The Boys in Blue made waves this offseason with their flurry of moves at the winter meetings, trading away key players from last season’s team that took home the National League West division title.

It remains to be seen whether this year’s roster incarnation is superior, but most of the players on the 2015 Dodgers know their role heading into the new season. The starting rotation is set, along with the closer and infield.

Two positions that are still up for grabs, however, are catcher and center field.

 

Catcher

There were definite concerns within the organization following the struggles of A.J. Ellis last season. The Dodgers’ incumbent backstop batted just .191 in 93 games as he battled through knee and ankle injuries.

But although his performance at the plate suffered, the new front office led by President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi realized his value in other areas of the game—namely his relationship with the pitching staff.

“I don’t know what I’m going to do if he’s not back,” Clayton Kershaw told reporters following the Dodgers’ season-ending loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series last October, per Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. “I think we’d be losing a lot if we let him go.”

It’s why the Dodgers ultimately decided to avoid arbitration with Ellis and brought him back on a one-year, $4.25 million deal, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

“That’s been a part of our process, understanding the dynamics and the relationships and it’s clear he’s a big part of this team and a big part of the preparation and comfort level for the pitchers,” Zaidi told Hernandez.

The Dodgers still made sure to proceed with a Plan B just in case Ellis falters for a second straight year. Los Angeles acquired switch-hitting catcher Yasmani Grandal from the San Diego Padres in the blockbuster deal that sent fan favorite and franchise cornerstone Matt Kemp out of town.

The former 12th overall pick in the 2010 draft will be tasked with living up to some lofty expectations in the eyes of most Dodgers fans simply because of who the team traded away in order to get him.

Grandal has batted just .224 since testing positive for testosterone in November 2012. His return to the field in 2013 was cut short by a season-ending knee injury, but he did hit 15 home runs while playing half of his games in spacious Petco Park last year.

What’s more, Grandal batted .328 in 19 games in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, according to J.P. Hoornstra of InsideSocal.com.

Grandal recently described his knee as being “110 percent” improved compared to a year ago, per Hoornstra.

“It’s the reason I went to the Dominican Republic to make sure I was right,” said Grandal. “I think I showed I was right and that’s why so many teams started calling in afterwards.”

Ellis will likely be Kerhaw’s personal catcher because of their close relationship on and off the field, while Grandal undoubtedly offers more pop in the lineup along with a fine .350 career on-base percentage and elite pitch-framing ability.

According to Hoornstra, manager Don Mattingly held a meeting with both of his catchers but has yet to determine an arrangement for their playing time in 2015.

“A.J. couldn’t put it any better: Whatever it takes to win,” said Grandal, per Hoornstra. “If that day A.J. is the man for the job behind the plate and we are going to get a win with A.J. behind the plate, that’s going to be him. At the end of the day, if we get a win, that’s a team win and we all get a ring.”

Look for Mattingly to form a platoon based on matchups when it comes to his catcher on any given night.

 

Center Field

The battle to become the starting center fielder for the Dodgers this season will come down to a seasoned veteran and a highly touted prospect.

It’s going to be to Andre Ethier vs. Joc Pederson.

Ethier was the odd man out last season, an unlucky victim of the team’s outfield logjam. The eight-year veteran was banished to the bench in favor of Carl Crawford, who solidified himself as the everyday left fielder. Yasiel Puig patrolled center and Kemp played right.

With Kemp now out of the picture, the Dodgers plan to move Puig back to his natural position in right field, where the team can utilize his strong throwing arm to its maximum potential. Crawford will be back in left field, which means center field is wide open, and Ethier expects to reclaim a starting role, per Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times.

It was fun trying to win the way we did last year, but it didn’t prove any more successful than me playing every day or not playing every day. I’d rather play every day and help this team win — or whatever team it is — to the best of my ability. I feel I can, if given a role. As I stand here today, I’m preparing every day to be a starting outfielder for the Dodgers, until I’m told otherwise. I’m not changing my mind about that. It’s probably going to be a little less wanting to take the same role as I did last year.

The problem that Mattingly has with simply handing Ethier back his starting gig is multifaceted.

First of all, Ethier is coming off the worst season of his career, one that saw him bat .249 with just four home runs and 42 RBI in 341 at-bats.

“You put up the numbers, you play. It’s pretty simple,” Mattingly said, per Eric Stephen of True Blue LA. “You perform, you compete, and if you win the job, you’re playing.”

Ethier clearly didn’t put up numbers worthy of everyday playing time a season ago. The argument can be made that he never was able to establish a rhythm at the plate with such sporadic at-bats, but maybe he is simply beginning his inevitable decline as a serviceable major league player. Ethier will turn 33 in April.

It’s a legitimate concern for Mattingly and the Dodgers, who must also accommodate the rise of Pederson, their top outfield prospect.

Pederson slashed .303/.435/.582 with 135 hits and 78 RBI in 121 games at Triple-A before his September call-up last season. He became the Pacific Coast League’s first player since 1934 to hit at least 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in the same season, according to Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com.

Mattingly considers Pederson the “best defensive center fielder” on the Dodgers, per Dilbeck, and the rookie will have an opportunity to earn an everyday job at the position during spring training.

Friedman and Zaidi agree with this plan.

“I think we’ll take some time in spring training and assess that, get a feel for him in camp and how he’s handling things,” Friedman told Dilbeck. “It’ll be a discussion we’ll have with the staff and I’m sure it will be an ongoing discussion between now through the last game in March.”

If Pederson holds his own during spring training, which will comprise of more than the 39 plate appearances he made with the big club last September, the Dodgers will likely begin the season with the 22-year-old as their starting center fielder.

Ethier will presumably be unhappy starting the season on the bench yet again, but it will be difficult for Los Angeles to trade him without eating a significant portion of the $56 million he is owed through 2018. Moreover, the team may view Ethier as an above-average insurance policy in case the injury-prone Crawford feels a twinge somewhere along the way.

“I think Joc should have the opportunity to compete for the position. I don’t think we should hand anything over,” Mattingly said, per Stephen. “It’s a spot where there will be competition.”

 

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise linked/noted.

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Yasiel Puig Right to Put ‘Rival’ Bull’s-Eye on Cardinals, Not Giants

We can talk all we want about the offseason drawing to a close and spring training being just around the bend, but here’s how we really know it’s almost baseball season:

Ladies and gentlemen, our first Yasiel Puig controversy of 2015 has arrived!

Sort of, anyway. It’s a controversy to the extent that it’s going to be viewed that way in some circles. But in this one? Meh, not so much. If anything, this particular Puig controversy is the opposite of a controversy, whatever that is.

At any rate, let’s get to what the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ lightning-rod right fielder had to say. It seems Puig held court with some reporters on Friday and, courtesy of Roberto Baly of VinScullyIsMyHomeboy.com, one of the things he said was this:

Hardball Talk’s Craig Calcaterra introduced this tweet by writing, “This is gonna create some headlines.” 

Well, we know there’s at least one now. And there will probably be more. It is the slow season, after all, and this is one of those Internet-friendly OH SNAP! moments.

The rivalry between the Dodgers and the Giants is no joke. They both entered the National League in 1883, and their rivalry traveled from New York to California in the 1950s and became an intradivisional affair when the NL West formed in 1969. Through it all, the Dodgers-Giants rivalry has produced enough fodder for a Wikipedia page that’s about as long as you’d expect it to be.

And, of course, there’s what the Giants have done lately. While the Dodgers are still working on winning their first World Series since 1988, the Giants’ championship run in 2014 was their third in five years.

In light of all that, shouldn’t Puig‘s eyes be on the Giants instead of the Cardinals? Don’t they matter just a little bit more?

Not necessarily, no.

There’s no question the Giants are on the Dodgers’ minds, as new general manager Farhan Zaidi acknowledged as much at his introductory presser in November. And, for all we know, the Dodgers are just as envious of the Giants as they are aware of them.

Feeling envious, however, is not the same thing as feeling inferior.

Puig‘s comments indicate he doesn’t feel the Dodgers are inferior to the Giants, and there’s another Dodger who recently came right out and said it. Remember when Adrian Gonzalez told this to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register?

You can say he was just trying to rationalize the Dodgers’ season, but he had a point.

The Dodgers did indeed win the division over the Giants in 2014 and also did the same in 2013. A big reason they were able to this past year is because they won eight of the last 11 games the two teams played against one another.

So based on recent history, Puig‘s not quite out of his mind in not perceiving the Giants as a major threat. Over the Dodgers’ last 324 regular-season games, they really haven’t been.

And looking ahead to 2015, the projections see more of the same in store. Courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs:

Both projections see the Dodgers winning their third straight NL West title, and handily at that. And knowing what they’re working with, that should be easy enough to believe.

The Dodgers may have lost Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon, but they still have plenty of quality bats. Throw in a rotation led by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, a hugely improved defense and a bullpen that should also be improved, and they don’t just deserve to be perceived as the top contender for the NL West. In my eyes, they’re baseball’s top World Series contender.

So while the Dodgers are playing catch-up with the Giants to a certain extent, the Giants are also a hurdle they’ve proved they can clear and should be able to clear once again. Rather than on them, their focus should be on a hurdle they haven’t cleared and still poses a threat.

You know, like the Cardinals.

The last two times the Dodgers have made the playoffs, the Cardinals have come along to knock them out. They did the job in the sixth game of the National League Championship Series in 2013, and in the fourth game of the National League Division Series in 2014.

It would be easy for Puig and the rest of the Dodgers to put those two defeats in the past if they knew they didn’t have to worry about seeing the Cardinals in October again, but they can’t do that. 

The Cardinals are largely still the same team they were the last time the Dodgers saw them, but they now feature one of the game’s great right fielders in Jason Heyward. This is to say, they still have the look of a division winner, and both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs expect them to be just that in 2015. Odds are the NL Central will be theirs again.

That puts them and the Dodgers on a collision course to meet in October once again. Because of that, they’re more of a threat to stand in the way of the Dodgers’ elusive championship than the Giants are.

Even without context, this alone would be strong enough justification for Puig‘s stance. But when you consider the context, you remember how many layers there are to the Cardinals-Dodgers rivalry.

One of those layers concerns Puig directly. The Cardinals have owned him the last two times they’ve faced him in the postseason, holding him to a .235 average and punching him out in 18 of 37 plate appearances. Thus have they made an otherwise above-average hitter look decidedly pedestrian.

It’s not just his number the Cardinals have had. They’ve also had Kershaw‘s, as they’ve treated him like a regular Barry Zito the last three times they’ve seen him in the postseason. Understandably, he was dazed and confused after his latest defeat. His teammates probably were, too.

Oh, and let’s also not forget the cultural war between these two teams.

In 2013, their postseason battle was a narrative of the respectful old-school types of St. Louis triumphing over a bunch of disrespectful modern loonies from Los Angeles. It was the spirit of Stan Musial stomping all over Mickey Mouse.

In 2014, it was much of the same. Only this time, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports looked at the Dodgers’ absurd payroll and spun a yarn about magic triumphing over money:

The $230 million (or is it $240 million with all the extras counted?) Dodgers slinked back to glitzy L.A. after a 3-2 defeat that completed the Cardinals’ NLDS win, three games to one. This will be four straight NLCS appearances for the Cardinals, who rank in the middle on payroll and haven’t had Albert Pujols for three of those four years now.

The Dodgers-Giants rivalry is one with a long history that now has a championship-envy twist. But it’s the Cardinals who have been the bigger rock in the Dodgers’ shoe over the last two seasons, and the rivalry between them has transcended the action on the field as only good rivalries can do.

So don’t take Puig‘s latest remark to be controversial. The Giants may have the championships the Dodgers crave, but it’s not them the Dodgers have to worry about. The Cardinals pose a bigger threat, and the last two years have made them the Bill to the Dodgers’ Uma Thurman. Revenge is in order.

Of course, Giants fans are welcome to disagree. Either that, or you guys can calm down and count to three. 

I’m not sure what it is, but something about that number should have you feeling better.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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Projecting the Dodgers’ 2015 Opening Day Roster

The Los Angeles Dodgers enter the 2015 season with a roster full of new faces, but the particular collection of players is still capable of advancing to the postseason for a third consecutive year.

Trotting out the reigning National League MVP and two-time defending Cy Young Award winner tends to legitimize a team’s chances, so the Dodgers will certainly benefit from having Clayton Kershaw on their side.

While trading away a slugger like Matt Kemp may dent the offense, the team has put a premium on defense with the new double-play combination of Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick rounding out the infield alongside returners Adrian Gonzalez and Juan Uribe at the corners.

Last season, the Dodgers were doomed by an ineffective bullpen headlined by former closers (Brian Wilson and Chris Perez) who consistently put the “has” in has-been. This year’s relief corps features a combination of wily veterans, young hopefuls and a few guys who have been brought in to see if the move to a pitcher’s park like Dodger Stadium may induce some value potentially lying dormant within them.

Here’s an early look at the projected 25-man roster that manager Don Mattingly will lead into battle on Opening Day 2015.

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Top Offseason Options for the Los Angeles Dodgers to Finish off Winter Plans

The Los Angeles Dodgers have nearly filled their roster. Their depth chart is balanced and complete, with multiple quality options at many positions. The biggest potential weakness is an injury in the middle infield, as Darwin Barney and Justin Turner are competent players but would be stretched too far if given extended playing time.

Pitching is the other element of roster building, and it is the only real remaining area for improvement. The Dodgers’ rotation is top-heavy but an injury risk, as Hyun-jin Ryu made just 26 starts last year, Brandon McCarthy made 30 starts for the first time last year and Brett Anderson hasn’t thrown 100 innings since 2010. This lack of dependability means that rotation depth is a necessity.

Even with the offseason additions of Joe Wieland and Mike Bolsinger, the Dodgers could still use extra arms. The idea that a team can never have too much pitching holds especially true when every option beyond the top four is unproven at the major league level. When added to the dismal performance of the 2014 bullpen (22nd in ERA), extra arms are a necessity.

Notes: Available free agents are courtesy of the MLB Trade Rumors list. Advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.

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How the Los Angeles Dodgers Have Left Themselves Exposed Entering 2015

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 92 and 94 games the past two seasons, as well as the National League West both times, and are once again considered by many (if not most) to be the favorites in that division in 2015.

But has the Dodgers’ busy offseason, sparked by a change in the front office that brought in new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and new general manager Farhan Zaidi, left them at least somewhat vulnerable as spring training approaches?

That question seems a little odd to raise, given the reputation of the Dodgers and their new decision-makers along with the fact that this is the only team currently projected to win even 90 games based on personnel and metrics, according to FanGraphs.

The Dodgers, however, have made a great many changes, like moving on from two of their most prominent, productive hitters in Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. This has resulted in a ton of roster turnover, and so, to an extent, the if-it-ain’t-broke argument applies.

Did the 2013-14 Dodgers have flaws that needed fixing just like every other team the past two years? Sure, namely a terrible bullpen, a below-average defense and injury issues that plagued the roster.

The playoffs also proved disappointing, with defeats in the 2013 NLCS and 2014 NLDS at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals both times.

Then again, the Dodgers did make the postseason each of the past two years, and are one of just five clubs to do so, along with the Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cardinals.

So this new-look 2015 Dodgers team is almost something of an experiment to see if a contender can be remodeled on the fly by a pair of incoming executives and stay a contender.

Besides that, there is quite a bit of pressure in L.A. for this to work right away, as the Dodgers are in win-now mode as much as just about any other club in the sport.

Before anything else, here’s a rundown of the Dodgers’ notable additions and subtractions so far this offseason, along with each player’s projected 2015 wins above replacement (WAR), courtesy of Steamer Projections, which can be found at FanGraphs:

Simply tallying the projected WARs for those added and lost is far from an exact measure of how much better or worse a team will be from one year to the next, but it can offer a sense.

In this case, the Dodgers look to have gained and lost roughly the same, meaning they might not be any better or worse than what they have been—they’ve only shuffled the deck chairs. Perhaps.

In letting Ramirez (512 plate appearances) walk as a free agent and trading Kemp (599) and Gordon (650), the Dodgers have moved on from three players who placed in the top five in plate appearances for them last season, leaving Adrian Gonzalez (660) and Yasiel Puig (640) as the only players to reach 500 plate appearances with L.A. in 2014.

Now, plate appearances don’t tell anything other than how often a player goes up to the plate, but that does provide an idea of how much turnover has taken place. As for the actual production, well, each of Kemp (140 OPS+), Ramirez (132) and even Gordon (101) were above-average with the bat.

Kemp, in particular, was downright dangerous in the second half of 2014, hitting .309 with 17 homers—third-most among all players post-break—and slugging an MLB-best .606.

Friedman acknowledged the risks involved in swapping that kind of talent.

“[Kemp] was a really popular player because of how gifted he is offensively,” he said via Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. “We get it. I have a lot of respect for what he can do in the batter’s box.”

The same goes for the pitching side, as four of the 10 pitchers to throw at least 50 innings for L.A in 2014 are now gone: Dan Haren (186.0), Josh Beckett (115.2), Paul Maholm (70.2) and Jamey Wright (70.1).

Of those four—two starters and two relievers—only Beckett, who has retired, posted an ERA+ that was better than league average at 121, so the losses on the mound don’t seem to be quite as impactful.

The Dodgers’ top three starters, Hyun-jin Ryu, Zack Greinke and 2014 NL MVP and Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, are still in place.

Quite possibly, the biggest takeaway from all the maneuvering is that it puts a heck of a lot more on the shoulders of Puig, who is one of baseball’s biggest and brightest but also most mercurial stars.

This is a young player who looked like an MVP candidate through the first half of 2014 (.309/.393/.522), only to slump soon thereafter (.268/.359/.402 with just one homer from the break until the end of August) before a late-season bump (.284/.376/.432 in September).

All of that turned into utter disaster in October, when Puig reached base just twice in his final 10 trips, struck out eight times in that span and was benched for NLDS Game 4, which turned out to be the Dodgers’ final game of the season.

Can Puig now handle being the marquee name in the lineup along with Gonzalez? Is he ready for that? Is there at least a chance it could go horribly wrong?

As Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times wrote before the Dodgers traded Kemp:

The Dodgers “lost” free agent Hanley Ramirez to the Boston Red Sox after the shortstop signed a jaw-dropping $88-million deal. They can’t really afford to lose the only other real right-handed power in the lineup. Certainly you’re not going to count on the streaky Yasiel Puig, who hit exactly one home run in a 54-game stretch from June 5 to Sept. 15?

As far as the pitching staff goes, the other potential pitfall that could crop up based on the machinations is the health of the rotation.

Both Kershaw (neck/back) and Ryu (hip) spent time on the disabled list in 2014, while Greinke battled through some minor elbow soreness late in the year.

And now that elite trio is backed up by two new starters in Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, who are practically defined by their injury history.

To wit, McCarthy, who scored a four-year, $48 million contract, reached the 200-inning threshold for the first time last season—his ninth in the majorsand he’s now entering his age-31 campaign.

Anderson, meanwhile, has been remarkably injury-prone, having dealt with a number of problems affecting all sorts of body parts since 2010. The soon-to-be 27-year-old lefty has quality stuff and might prove himself worthy of a $10 million gamble, but he hasn’t reached the 50-inning mark since 2011 and has thrown 206.1 innings the past four years combined.

There also will be a lot asked of Joc Pederson, one of the Dodgers’ top prospects, who made a brief cameo last September after a 30-30 season at Triple-A.

Here’s Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs on Pederson, citing ZiPS projections:

Joc Pederson is expected, also, to produce the third-most wins among Dodger batters. It’s not a typical arrangement, that, but also likely the product of the Dodgers’ outfield glut over the last couple years. Without it, Pederson almost certainly wouldn’t be entering the 2015 season with his rookie-eligibility intact.

Pederson has a strong all-around skill set and has done all he can in the minors, but he’s also just 22 years old with all of 18 games in the majors. There’s bound to be a transition period and some growing pains for a youngster who is expected to take over as the starting center fielder at some point in 2015. If he’s going to be L.A.’s third-best hitter, as mentioned above, that might not work out so well.

Now, all of this isn’t to say that the Dodgers won’t be good this coming season. What they will be is different.

“This just gets back to us doing everything we could to mold our roster into the most highly-functioning baseball team, as opposed to a collection of talent,” Friedman said, per Hernandez.

That could be a good thing, as Friedman and Zaidi have addressed the bullpen and defense, making the club more athletic and bringing in veterans Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick to better handle the middle infield.

They have also cut some costs by unloading Kemp’s hefty contract, among others, which leaves open the possibility that more moves could still happen.

But it’s also possible that so much change could take some getting used to, which could hurt the Dodgers, especially with all of the hype and expectation surrounding this club.

They may still be the favorites in the NL West at the moment, but the Dodgers have changed quite a bit from the past two years when they won the division. Remaking a contender is a bold and tricky task, with a potential downside that could come back to haunt them.

That might not happen with the Dodgersbut it could.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Andre Ethier Is a Difficult Trade, but Could Be a Bounce-Back Candidate

Andre Ethier was once a pillar of the storied Los Angeles Dodgers organization, so stable a contributor that the previous ownership/front-office regime gave him a heavy eight-figure contract.

Now, two-and-a-half years later, Ethier has become shell of that productive player, and it is that very five-year, $85 million deal that makes him such a burden to his current team and any potential new one.

Bets on him to bounce back and again become the kind of player that finished sixth in the National League MVP voting in 2009 are low. The Dodgers are having trouble finding a taker in a trade, and that, coupled with his 2014 performance, could lead to Ethier becoming nothing more than a mediocre bench player for the duration of his career.

To make the situation stickier for the Dodgers, who still have too many outfielders for the available lineup spots, Ethier has basically made the play-me-or-trade-me call for the upcoming season.

“Whether to play here every day or play somewhere else,” Ethier told Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. “It was fun trying to win the way we did last year, but it didn’t prove any more successful than me playing every day or not playing every day.

“I’d rather play every day and help this team win—or whatever team it is—to the best of my ability.”

It does not seem likely the Dodgers will have room for Ethier in their lineup. Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson and Carl Crawford are expected to get the huge bulk of the innings, with Scott Van Slyke and possibly Chris Heisey filling in off the bench. With Ethier coming off a season in which he posted a .249/.322/.370 line with four home runs and a 97 OPS-plus in 380 plate appearances, easily the worst season of his career, he is on the outside looking in. Beyond his poor offensive performance, Ethier was worth minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved last season, according to FanGraphs.

Trading him will not bring much in return, plus the Dodgers are going to have to eat a good portion of the guaranteed $56 million still left on his contract. What the Dodgers have to hope for now is for a team to become desperate as spring training nears.

The Baltimore Orioles could be such a team.

The Orioles have engaged the Dodgers in trade talks for Ethier, MASNSports.com’s Roch Kubatko reported. However, because of the length of Ethier’s deal, his age—he will be 33 in April—and his cost, even with the Dodgers picking up some of it, Ethier is not likely to be bound for Baltimore. He appears to be the team’s third option for a left-handed hitting outfielder behind Colby Rasmus and Nori Aoki.

There is also the idea of Ethier heading north to San Francisco to play for the rival Giants, another team in need of outfield help. The Giants would likely need plenty of salary relief from the Dodgers to make that happen, and the Dodgers helping the Giants save money just doesn’t seem probable.

The other thing clubs are concerned about is why Ethier is available in the first place. For a six-year span, Ethier was one of the more productive outfielders in the National League. From 2008 through 2013, he hit .286/.363/.471 with an .834 OPS and 127 OPS-plus. He also averaged 20 home runs a season, made two All-Star teams and won a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove.

But as Puig, Crawford and the since-traded Matt Kemp emerged as the team’s best outfield options last year, Ethier was relegated to the bench and found only 93 plate appearances in the second half.

For 2015, ZiPS projects Ethier to hit .259/.335/.392 with a 1.1 WAR. Steamer projects Ethier to go .261/.336/.400 with a 0.3 WAR. Assuming Ethier’s playing time is as limited as it was in the second half of last season, those numbers seem plausible.

However, it was only a season before that Ethier was still productive, getting on base at a .360 clip with a 121 OPS-plus and 3.0 WAR, based on Baseball-Reference calculations. While those numbers are not worthy of the $18 million he will make next season, it should definitely be worth the homework and kicking of the tires for some team with a need. If Ethier can bounce back as a regular, and even split some time as a designated hitter in the American League, he has real value.

Ending up in a division like the AL East, with smaller ballparks and thinner starting rotations, he could be an under-the-radar steal. However, having Rasmus and Aoki still available for much cheaper and for fewer years is hurting Ethier’s market. The upside for both could be equal to Ethier’s, if not higher in Rasmus’ case.

Ethier will probably never hit 30 home runs again or even put up an OPS-plus of 130 or higher as he did from 2008-2010, but one ugly season is too small a sample to call him washed up. He was unhappy last season, dealt with the nagging injury here and there and never found a rhythm because of the Dodgers’ outfield shuffles.

If the Dodgers are willing to pick up a large enough piece of his salary, he could be a strong change-of-scenery candidate for 2015.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Biggest Winners and Losers from Dodgers Offseason

There’s less than three months remaining until Opening Day, and the Los Angeles Dodgers look decidedly different than they did at the beginning of the offseason.

For starters, the front office was stripped down and replaced with a new regime headed by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi.

The metrics-minded duo wasted little time revamping the roster, trading away several popular players in an effort to improve the team in less noticeable ways while saving money and replenishing the farm system.

Los Angeles also saw other players walk away, either for a lucrative deal elsewhere in free agency or simply because they were no longer wanted.

It has been one of the busiest winters for the Dodgers in recent years, and there’s still time for more moves to be made before the regular season begins. For now, though, here are the winners and losers from the first three months of the team’s offseason.

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Projecting the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 5-Man Rotation for 2015

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ rotation is undoubtedly the strength of the team. It is loaded.

Two Cy Young winners head the staff, and the back half is talented as well. Legitimate arguments can be made that Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu are each among the top 20 pitchers in all of baseball, and new acquisitions Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson have question marks but are talented.

The team’s success will likely hinge on the offense, but that is because the rotation is expected to be fantastic. In 2014, they ranked second in the majors in ERA, and there is no reason to expect they would be significantly worse in 2015.

 

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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