Tag: Los Angeles Dodgers

3 Missing Pieces the Dodgers Could Still Land This Winter

One of the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ biggest weaknesses last season was their bullpen.

It was no secret, and the numbers didn’t lie. Los Angeles relievers in 2014 surrendered more earned runs than 18 other bullpens in the majors, and only four other relief corps finished the year with a higher walk rate.

While the Dodgers have revamped their roster in a myriad of ways this offseason, the bullpen could still use some shoring up considering its main additions this winter have been Joel Peralta, Juan Nicasio and Chris Hatcher. None of those names represent what most teams would consider lockdown arms out of the pen.

The previous Los Angeles front office under the guidance of former general manager Ned Colletti also took some heat for the failed former closer experiment he initiated by signing Brian Wilson and Chris Perez prior to the 2014 season.

Although both right-handers are no longer part of the team, President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and new general manager Farhan Zaidi should not completely avoid adding former closers if they are available—especially if they have a relatively consistent track record of success.

 

Casey Janssen

A former closer for the Toronto Blue Jays, Casey Janssen could be a solid free-agent signing for the Dodgers as a potential late-inning option in advance of closer Kenley Jansen. 

The right-hander emerged as a reliable option for the Blue Jays from 2011-2013, during which time he averaged a 2.77 ERA and 3.04 xFIP.

He continued to perform well as closer through the first half of 2014 before a bout with food poisoning derailed his season and likely caused his value on the market to plummet. During Janssen‘s first 22 innings of 2014, he turned in a pristine 1.23 ERA. Following the July sickness, he coughed up a 6.46 ERA in roughly the same number of innings.

Janssen lost exclusive closing duties as a result of the implosion and finished the season with a 3.94 ERA and 4.22 xFIP. Los Angeles may have a buy-low opportunity with the 33-year-old, as he still has not been scooped up on the open market and would not be required to close games for the Dodgers.

 

Rafael Soriano

A reliever who has found himself in a similar position to Janssen is free agent Rafael Soriano, formerly of the Washington Nationals.

During his two-year stint with Washington, Soriano posted a 3.15 ERA, 7.7 K/9 and saved 75 games. His consistency is illustrated by the fact that he has recorded an ERA north of 3.19 just once since 2006.

However, the 35-year-old also experienced struggles halfway through 2014. He had five blown saves following the All-Star break and seven overall, which was a career high. The younger Drew Storen eventually supplanted him as closer by the end of the season.

Soriano continued to struggle in the late-inning relief role, allowing at least one run in more than half of his September appearances.

Although free-agent relievers like Andrew Miller, David Robertson and Luke Gregerson received hefty offers in free agency this offseason, Soriano should expect a pay cut from the $14 million he made during each of the past two seasons.

The Dodgers will most likely use Soriano in the seventh or eighth inning if they bring him aboard. Giving him $10 million per year might be too much for Friedman and Zaidi considering how a similar deal with Wilson backfired last season.

Something in the range of two years and $10-12 million might make more sense. Whether or not Soriano agrees to that type of deal is a different story.

 

Francisco Rodriguez

While Soriano is due for a pay cut, veteran right-hander Francisco Rodriguez is expecting a raise this winter.

That’s because he looked like the K-Rod of old last season, notching 44 saves for the Milwaukee Brewers and finishing with a 3.04 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a 9.7 K/9 ratio. It’s safe to say he has re-established himself on the market and will not accept anything less than the $3.25 million he made in 2014.

Rodriguez’s resurgence stemmed from the .216 BABIP he induced, the lowest mark since his electrifying rookie year with the Angels more than a decade ago. Over the course of his 13-year career, Rodriguez has posted an ERA above 3.16 just twice.

His 69 appearances last year highlighted noteworthy durability as well.

However, there are some red flags the Dodgers may have already noticed. His 4.50 FIP in 2014 was nearly a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA and the 14 home runs he coughed up were a career high.

Rodriguez will turn 33 later this week.

 

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise linked/noted.


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5 Prospects Set to Make a Name for Themselves in 2015

Joc Pederson emerged from the woodwork in 2014 to become a relatively household name among Los Angeles Dodger fans. The year before, Yasiel Puig filled that role. In a system as deep as the Dodgers’ currently is (and with a front office that clearly knows what it is doing), young or unheralded prospects emerge every year to present themselves as legitimate big leaguers.

They come with varying degrees of certainty. Elite prospects with first-round pedigrees (hello, Corey Seager) are more likely to be everyday starters than late-round prospects who toiled in obscurity for a few years. However, everyone on this list appears to have some sort of a big league future, and it is important for Dodger fans to know their names and what to expect.

Notes: All rankings referred to are courtesy of the MLB.com team rankings, and the Dodgers list can be found here. I have not seen any of these players and am not a scout; I read scouting reports and follow their in-season performances.

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3 Offseason Questions That the Dodgers Still Need to Answer

The Los Angeles Dodgers may have revamped their roster this offseason with a flurry moves during the winter meetings, but there are still questions remaining now that the dust has settled for the time being.

New president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman believes that the roster shakeup has allowed the Dodgers to become “highly functional,” according to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick, even though last season’s squad functioned well enough to win 94 games and take the NL West division crown.

So what exactly does Friedman perceive as more functional about the 2015 Dodgers?

Advanced metrics indicate that the team’s defense up the middle of the infield—with Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick—is superior to last season’s double-play combination of Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon.

The back end of the starting rotation is younger with Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson. Yasmani Grandal should provide some much-needed offensive punch from the catcher position, and manager Don Mattingly will be able to breathe a little easier when it comes to shuffling highly paid outfielders in and out of the lineup now that a sometimes-moody Matt Kemp is down in San Diego.

But not everything has been tied up in a nice little bow just yet. There are still question marks facing the Dodgers with the regular season only three months away.

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Is Yasiel Puig Ready to Face Big Responsibility with Kemp, Ramirez Gone?

There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Yasiel Puig when the Los Angeles Dodgers take the field in 2015.

Alright, maybe that sounds like stating the obvious. Between the pressure on him to behave and the pressure on him to perform, there’s always pressure on Puig. But it will be a different, more heightened sort of pressure in 2015, and whether he’ll be able to respond to it is a good question.

You’ve surely noticed how actively the Dodgers have been making changes this winter, and how the process has meant waving goodbye to a pair of dangerous hitters: Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp.

Thanks to how much the club’s run-prevention outlook has improved, its departures aren’t an outright disaster. And yet, there’s no ignoring the step back the Dodgers have taken on offense, as the top half of their lineup now looks considerably less scary.

To borrow from Dayn Perry of CBSSports.com, it now looks like this:

That’s not a bad top five, mind you, but it pales in comparison to what the top five of Don Mattingly’s batting order typically looked like in 2014:

With Kemp and Ramirez gone, the Dodgers are going from a top five that featured four hitters with an OPS+ (a park and league-adjusted OPS where 100 is average) of at least 130 to a projected top five with half as many.

That’s the overall picture. More specifically, there’s how the Dodgers lineup has been stripped of a unique right-handed fear factor. By OPS+, Puig, Kemp and Ramirez gave the Dodgers three of the 18 best right-handed hitters in MLB last year. No other team had more than two.

Because the Dodgers have yet to acquire another elite righty hitter, their hopes of enjoying the luxury of elite right-handed hitting in 2015 rest with Puig. And while that wouldn’t seem like too much to ask in light of how Puig was virtually Miguel Cabrera’s equal in 2014, make no mistake about it: He’ll need to be better.

On the whole, Puig really did have a terrific 2014. He wasn’t as dangerous as he was in his outstanding rookie season, but there’s no reason to be ashamed of a .296/.382/.480 batting line.

However, Puig’s 2014 was a tale of two seasons. He started off incredibly hot and finished…well, not so incredibly hot.

Here’s the breakdown:

Puig wasn’t a “bad” hitter in those last 100 games. According to FanGraphs, he still walked more and struck out less than the average hitter. Also, a .763 OPS is 63 points better than 2014’s average OPS.

Nonetheless, just how much Puig’s production fell off is downright cringeworthy, especially in the power department. He was on pace for easily over 30 home runs early on, but he hit only five the rest of the way while his slugging percentage dropped over 200 points.

Rather than Cabrera’s equal, the down-the-stretch Puig was more like Casey McGehee’s equal. If that’s the Puig who shows up in 2015, there’s no way he’s going to mitigate the loss of Kemp and Ramirez.

But this is not to say Puig can’t recover from his dismal showing down the stretch in 2014. He’ll be able to if he fixes what was ailing him.

If you’re thinking this means Puig needs to turn his emotional dial to somewhere below 11, his manager would probably agree. Here’s what Mattingly told Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles in late August:

The season is long, and it wears you down. It’s part of learning to regulate yourself here, as far as rest or anything else. We’ve seen Dee Gordon and how much more consistent his approach is day in and day out now, staying at a certain level. I think Yasiel’s really emotional, and it’s hard to be really emotional and play 162.

Because Puig did seem to let his frustration get the better of him at times down the stretch, Mattingly might have a point. Maybe Puig really can help himself by becoming more robotic.

Either that, or he can focus on making a more tangible adjustment. Rather than worrying about policing his emotions, he should be worried about once again rewriting the scouting report on him.

One reason Puig started off so hot in 2014 was because he was crushing hard stuff. According to Brooks Baseball, he hit the first 539 fastballs he saw at a .352 clip with a .611 slugging percentage.

Not surprisingly, pitchers responded by adjusting.

Puig’s overall percentage of hard stuff went from 68.1 in his first 48 games to 64.5 in his last 100 games. Pitchers also went from pounding him almost exclusively inside to pounding him both inside and outside.

In other words, they became far less predictable when Puig was at bat. And for Puig, there were a couple production-killing effects.

That Puig saw more slow pitches and a less predictable fastball pattern explains why his strikeout rate went up. It also helps explain why, according to FanGraphs, his ground-ball percentage went from 48.6 to 53.5. That, in particular, is a good way to kill power.

But something else killed Puig’s power, too: All of a sudden, he basically stopped driving the ball at will.

Here, check out his early-season spray chart:

And now compare it to what came after:

Early on, Puig was spraying the ball with authority all over the field. But as the season wore on, his batted balls consisted mainly of grounders to third and short, and liners and flies to right field.

Even with Puig’s considerable power to right field, it’s hard to be a consistent power producer when you’re only hitting the ball that way. His numbers in his final 100 games can vouch, and you can rest assured that pitchers know this. They won’t quit using their new approach until Puig makes them.

To this end, time will tell. But if it’s optimism you want, you’re not going to leave empty-handed.

Because Puig gives off vibes of being a big, dumb brute, counting on him making necessary adjustments may sound like a bad idea. But it’s anything but, as making adjustments has quietly been a talent of his.

For instance, you can look at how Puig went from being a wild hitter in 2013 to an advanced hitter in 2014. Per FanGraphs, his chase rate went from 38.9 to 30.2, and his contact rate went from 67.6 to 74.7. Huge improvements, those are.

There’s also why pitchers suddenly refused to feed Puig a steady diet of inside fastballs in 2014. That was a case of him changing the book on how it was safe to pitch him. According to BaseballSavant.com, he went from slugging .411 against inside heat in 2013 to slugging .725 against it early on in 2014.

At FanGraphs, Jeff Sullivan noted that this is an improvement Puig was hoping to make and how, even though the actual improvement had consequences, it’s encouraging that he pulled it off:

In working to get better against inside fastballs, Puig subsequently opened himself up a little more against fastballs away…But between years, he set his mind to getting better against something, and it appears he mostly pulled it off. That’s not something we often observe, which is what makes this so interesting.

Elsewhere, you can even look to how Puig didn’t exactly have the worst idea in becoming more of an opposite-field hitter down the stretch in 2014. He got carried away with it, but looking to go the other way more often in the face of more slow stuff and fastballs away is the way to go.

So, we’ve seen Puig become a more advanced hitter. We’ve seen him turn a safe haven for pitchers into a death zone. We’ve seen him put up a solid fight in the face of a tougher pitching strategy. Knowing this, it’s not nuts to think that his next adjustment will be to not let pitchers dictate how he hits the ball.

If so, his power should come back. And if his power comes back, he’ll look more like the world-destroying hitter he was early on in 2014, which is just the hitter the Dodgers need to offset the departures of Kemp and Ramirez.

Given everything involved in it, the challenge that lies before Puig is the greatest he’s faced as a big leaguer. It will be some time before we know if he’s able to handle it.

But for now, we can say this: I wouldn’t put it past him.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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Los Angeles Dodgers: Signing Scherzer Would Be Crazy Ending to Wild Offseason

Ever since Guggenheim Baseball Management purchased the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2012, the Dodgers have been the most polarizing team in MLB.  They immediately went out and acquired superstars like Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez, infusing a drastic win-now philosophy into the organization. 

The Dodgers were second in the league in team salary in 2013, and their payroll ballooned to over $235 million in 2014, which led the league by over $30 million, according to Deadspin.

However, that star-studded roster could not bring a World Series championship to Hollywood in either year.  They managed to only win one playoff series, losing to the Cardinals in the NLCS in 2013 and then again to the Redbirds last year in the first round.

Only one week after the Dodgers lost in Game 4 of the NLDS to St. Louis, the club’s front office underwent some changes.  They lured Andrew Friedman away from the Rays, making him the new president of baseball operations and reassigning former general manager Ned Colletti to a different position within the organization.

Friedman was expected to get the payroll under control, especially since he had to be frugal in his tenure in Tampa Bay, but he took it to another level, slashing payroll in his first winter meetings in blue.  He wasted no time trading Matt Kemp and choosing not to re-sign Hanley Ramirez.

But even with the shift in philosophy, the ownership wants to win now, and it doesn’t really care how much money it has to spend, which is why there is a possibility that the Dodgers could pursue the biggest fish left on the free-agent market, Max Scherzer.

Scherzer is represented by Scott Boras, and his asking price is reportedly somewhere north of $200 million.  There is only one pitcher in MLB history who has signed a contract of at least $200 million, and it’s Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw.

Despite Scherzer’s phenomenal success the past two years, his market has been unimpressive.  The Scherzer negotiations are completely different than Jon Lester’s. Leading up to Lester’s signing, there was seemingly endless rumor and speculation, with several teams clamoring for position. 

With Scherzer, though, there haven’t been any teams that have announced they are “all in” on signing the 2013 Cy Young winner. 

That perceived lack of interest will probably not lower Scherzer’s price tag due to Boras’ historic brilliance of getting his clients top dollar, but it does leave the window open for the Dodgers to shock the baseball world.

If they do sign Scherzer, they would undoubtedly have the best starting rotation in the MLB.  A staff consisting of Kershaw, Scherzer, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu would be nearly unhittable, especially in a best-of-five or best-of-seven playoff series.

The Dodgers already unloaded Kemp and Ramirez, giving them a bit of flexibility from a financial standpoint, and it’s not like the L.A executives are going to pass up a chance to drastically improve their team just because of money. 

They have shown that they are not afraid of massive contracts, and Scherzer could be the next one they sign.

If that is the case, the Dodgers immediately become my pick to win the World Series.  They would have the best starting rotation in the game, and they still have plenty of firepower, even without Kemp and Ramirez, in an offense that features Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez and the newly acquired Howie Kendrick.

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Dodgers’ Biggest Steal at the MLB Offseason’s 2-Month Mark

With the flurry of moves that the Los Angeles Dodgers have made this offseason, it’s difficult to hone in on just one.

After all, some of these deals were interconnected, a web of swift transformation ushered in by the metric-minded tandem now running the front office at Dodger Stadium: Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi.

The current Dodgers roster looks noticeably different than the one that walked off the Busch Stadium field in early October as a second consecutive postseason was cut short by the pesky St. Louis Cardinals. But the recent changes appear to be for the best. Several positions have been upgraded—both offensively as defensively—while the team has improved its depth all while retaining the top prospects.

If there’s one move that stands apart from the rest as a bona fide steal this offseason, it’s the acquisition of second baseman Howie Kendrick.

Speaking of steals, it’s a coincidence that Kendrick will be replacing last season’s stolen-base leader in Dee Gordon.

But make no mistake, Kendrick over Gordon at second base is a definite upgrade for the Dodgers.

 

On the Surface

Sure, Los Angeles parted ways with a dynamic game-changer in the speedy Gordon when he was shipped to Miami. But upon closer inspection, Kendrick’s .347 on-base percentage trumped Gordon’s in 2014. As the old saying goes, “You can’t steal first base.”

Gordon turned heads around baseball with his first half last season. The former shortstop switched positions in spring training, won the second base job and ran with it—literally. His 105 hits and 43 stolen bases during the first half earned him an All-Star nod after his Dodgers career appeared to be in jeopardy before the season. It was a feel-good story in every sense of the word.

Those numbers would suffer post All-Star Game, however, and Gordon stole far fewer bags in the second half simply because wasn’t getting on base as much. 

Gordon’s underwhelming second-half performance was more indicative of his career  numbers, and Los Angeles’ new front office sniffed out what may have been an anomaly in the first half of 2014. Friedman and Zaidi decided to send Gordon to his home state of Florida in exchange for pitching prospect Andrew Heaney, who was then flipped to the Angels for Kendrick.

 

Digging Deeper

The Dodgers’ new front office—Zaidi in particular—is well-versed in advanced metrics. Before joining the Dodgers, Zaidi worked under Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, the pioneer of incorporating advanced metrics into baseball.

When analyzing the two second basemen in question, the metrics don’t lie.

Kendrick has been one of the best offensive second baseman over the past few seasons in terms of a metric called “weighted runs created plus” or wRC+. Since 2011, Kendrick has posted 115, 117, 103 and 123 when it comes to wRC+.

Not only does Kendrick provide an upgrade over Gordon on offense, his defense is also superior to the Dodgers’ former second baseman.

Once again, the front office surely examined the pertinent metrics when evaluating Gordon and Kendrick.

A common barometer used to value a player’s defense is a metric called defensive runs saved (DRS). Zero is considered average, 10 is great and minus-10 is poor. According to FangraphsKendrick’s DRS ranked seventh among all second basemen with at least 500 innings played last season. Gordon’s minus-five DRS ranked 25th.

When it came down to it, the Dodgers needed to answer an important question regarding Gordon this winter: Was the second half of last season merely a slump or was it more indicative of his true self?

By trading Gordon, Los Angeles essentially sold high and bet that he will never again reach that early-2014 level on a consistent basis. The Dodgers opted to bring in a proven commodity like Kendrick, perfectly mindful that he has just one year left on his current contract.

“There are a lot of different ways it can play out, but we’re excited to have him,” Friedman told Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. “All of our focus right now is on the 2015 season.”

The focus for Los Angeles should not be on the departure of a fan favorite like Gordon. The Dodgers should feel about their fortunes after reeling in an underrated player like Kendrick, a solidly consistent performer who happens to be the team’s biggest steal of the offseason thus far.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.


 

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Gilberto Suarez Reportedly Enters Guilty Plea for Smuggling of Yasiel Puig

Gilberto Suarez entered a guilty plea on Tuesday for his role in the illegal smuggling of Los Angeles Dodgers star Yasiel Puig. Suarez pleaded guilty to an alien smuggling conspiracy charge.   

The Associated Press reported the news (h/t CBSSports.com’s Matt Snyder), and court documents showed that Suarez accepted a $2.5 million fee for his role as a financier in delivering Puig to the U.S. from Cuba in 2012.

Jesse Katz, who penned the remarkable story of Puig’s stateside arrival in April 2014 for Los Angeles Magazine, weighed in on Tuesday’s development involving Suarez:

Suarez, 40, must relinquish possession of his house, a condo, multiple guns and a Mercedes-Benz automobile. Those big purchases stem from money Suarez received as a percentage of Puig’s seven-year, $42 million Dodgers contract.

Puig has found tremendous success in his first two seasons with the Dodgers. He’s coming off his first All-Star selection in 2014 after hitting .296/.382/.480 with 16 home runs, 69 RBI and 11 stolen bases.

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Reassessing the Dodgers’ Offseason Plan and Breaking Down What’s Next

It didn’t take long for the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ new front office to leave its mark on the city and franchise this offseason.

In a span of 24 hours during the recent winter meetings, President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi orchestrated deals that saw the Dodgers plug a hole at shortstop, replace their All-Star second baseman and dump a former franchise cornerstone seemingly without a moment’s hesitation.

When the dust settled, it appeared Los Angeles had improved its roster in a variety of ways—albeit perhaps more subtly than usual. And if last week’s flurry was any indication, the new conductors of this Dodgers train surely have more up their sleeve between now and the start of spring training.

 

Advanced Metrics

The hiring of Friedman and Zaidi shortly after the Dodgers were eliminated early in October signaled a cultural shift within the organization.

Both staunch believers in the concept of advanced metrics, Friedman and Zaidi cultivated the practice in the small markets of Tampa Bay and Oakland, respectively, where a lack of financial flexibility called for shrewd, cost-effective baseball decisions.

In fact, Zaidi spent time working directly under Athletics general manager Billy Beane, who gained national recognition through Michael Lewis’ 2003 book, Moneyball, and the 2011 film of the same name.

When analyzing the metrics of the Dodgers roster they inherited from former general manager Ned Colletti, Friedman and Zaidi probably noticed that the defense could use some work. After all, there was a gaping hole at shortstop. Los Angeles chose not to re-sign Hanley Ramirez primarily because of his defensive shortcomings.

A common barometer used to value a player’s defense is a metric called defensive runs saved (DRS). Zero is considered average, 10 is great and minus-10 is poor. According to Fangraphs, Ramirez ranked 29th among all shortstops who played at least 500 innings at the position last season with minus-nine DRS.

When Ramirez commanded a contract that the Dodgers probably deemed too expensive given his age and declining defense, Friedman and Zaidi opted to go in a different direction. Rather than completely sacrifice offense by rolling the dice on a sure-handed, yet unproven, in-house option like Erisbel Arruebarrena, the Dodgers acquired Jimmy Rollins from the Philadelphia Phillies, per ESPN’s Buster Olney

Last season, Rollins ranked 10th in DRS among shortstops with at least 500 innings under their belt, per Fangraphs. He also produced a higher on-base percentage, four more home runs and 14 more stolen bases than Ramirez.

For a moment, it looked like Rollins and second baseman Dee Gordon were going to constitute the 2015 double-play combination for the Dodgers. But Los Angeles then traded their all-star infielder to the Miami Marlins in exchange for four prospects, per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.

The major haul for the Dodgers in the deal was Andrew Heaney, MLB.com’s top-ranked pitching prospect in all of baseball heading into 2014. Heaney didn’t stick around very long, though, as Los Angeles quickly flipped the southpaw across town in exchange for the Angels veteran second baseman Howie Kendrick.

Yes, the Dodgers gave up a dynamic game-changer in the speedy Gordon. But upon closer inspection, Kendrick’s .347 on-base percentage trumped Gordon’s in 2014. As the old saying goes, “You can’t steal first base.”

Moreover, Kendrick’s DRS ranked seventh among all second basemen with at least 500 innings played last season, per Fangraphs. Gordon’s minus-five DRS ranked 25th.

 

Saving Money

Although Friedman and Zaidi now have more money to work with than they ever could have dreamed of in Tampa and Oakland, the pair remains committed to their cost-effective approach to improving the team.

Financial flexibility was lacking within the Dodgers organization last season. Former general manager Ned Colletti shoulders some of the blame for that reality, as does the Guggenheim Baseball Management ownership group that gave Colletti permission to dole out massive player contracts in order to re-establish the Dodgers’ brand following the tumultuous Frank McCourt era.

Los Angeles’ Opening Day payroll in 2014 came out to $229.3 million, the highest in the majors.

Regarding the 30-year-old Ramirez, the Dodgers were simply not willing to give him anything close to the $88 million over four years that he received from the Boston Red Sox last month.

The Dodgers’ top prospect, Corey Seager, plays shortstop but by all accounts, will not be ready for full-time MLB service until 2016. That’s why Los Angeles nabbed Rollins, a player whose contract comes off the books following the 2015 season but someone who should make for a quality stopgap next year.

One of the loftiest contracts that Colletti handed out was the eight-year, $160-million commitment to Matt Kemp. Not only did the outfielder miss most of 2012 and 2013 due to various injuries, those same injuries had seemingly sapped Kemp of his defensive capability. According to FangraphsKemp registered a minus-23 in DRS, the worst among qualifying MLB outfielders in 2014.

Kemp’s hefty contract and poor defensive metrics contradicted two of the central ideals that Friedman and Zaidi champion.

It’s why Kemp was a prime piece to be moved in a trade, and that’s exactly what the Dodgers did when they sent him to the San Diego Padres in exchange for catcher Yasmani Grandal, pitcher Joe Wieland and pitching prospect Zach Eflin, per Kirk Kenney and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

It also helped that Kemp’s value was higher than it had been in three years because of his resurgent second half at the plate in 2014.

Los Angeles agreed to eat $32 million of the $107 million remaining on Kemp’s contract, thereby immediately freeing up $75 million while reducing the well-documented outfield logjam at Dodger Stadium.

For good measure, the Dodgers recently agreed to deals with starting pitchers Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and ESPN’s Buster Olney. The common denominator between McCarthy and Anderson—besides being Twitter-savvy—is that they are both former Athletics and thus catch the eye of Zaidi.

While it can be argued that McCarthy’s four-year $48-million contract is excessive for a pitcher with a career 4.09 ERA, Friedman and Zaidi may be looking a little deeper. Sure, McCarthy’s most recent work was a stellar second half of 2014 with the Yankees. Even that might be an anomaly, though. Historically, McCarthy has struggled in hitter-friendly parks like Yankee Stadium.

But what about spacious parks like Dodger Stadium?

A reasonable comparison is O.co Coliseum, home of the A’s. McCarthy’s ERA during his two seasons with Oakland was lower than it has been with any other team throughout his nine-year career. As a No. 4 starter in Los Angeles, there will also be less pressure on McCarthy. Plus he will be working with one of the game’s best pitching coaches in Rick Honeycutt.

Anderson’s $10 million deal is incentive-laden due to his extensive injury history. But Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register points out an interesting piece of information that gives this signing the potential to be another cost-saving steal for the Dodgers in today’s high-stakes pitching market:

Although there is major injury risk associated with Anderson, Los Angeles appears confident the can provide better upside than Dan Haren, who was shipped to Miami in the Gordon deal.

 

What’s Next?

Whenever a team pulls off six transactions involving 17 players in a matter of two days, it’s probably a good bet that more moves are on the way.

The Dodgers certainly addressed some issues—filling out the back end of the starting rotation, finding a replacement at shortstop and replenishing the farm system—but what’s to say these recent acquisitions will even make it to spring training wearing Dodger blue?

Just ask Andrew Heaney or Stan Kasten.

The Dodgers president recently shared similar sentiments with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

I’ve always said to my GMs, the roster you have in December or January is not the roster you’ll need or want or have in August or September or October. They’re always going to be needs that arise, holes that have to be filled, adjustments or improvements that you need to make. So whatever you do, don’t ever think you’re finished.

One option that has been dangled around the league and whose name always seems linked to the Dodgers is Cole Hamels. The veteran Phillies southpaw will turn 31 later this month and is owed $94 million over the next four years.

With statistically comparable pitchers Max Scherzer and James Shields set to rake in contracts north of $100 million, Friedman and Zaidi might view Hamels as a bargain, and they’ve clearly shown how much they like a good bargain.

The additions of McCarthy and Anderson would seemingly take Los Angeles out of the Hamels sweepstakes, but if the Dodgers are willing to dump a resurgent fan favorite in Kemp, there’s no telling what the team might do if it means a better chance at reeling in a pitcher like Hamels.

Stay tuned.

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise linked/noted.


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Dodgers’ Rebuilt Rotation Is Good Enough to Make Strong 2015 Title Run

Andrew Friedman inherited a pretty good starting rotation when he agreed to run the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was weak at the back end, sure, but having Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu at the top more than made up for that.

But then again, why settle for “pretty good” when you can aim for “great?”

If you’re just now joining us, the Dodgers’ rotation has gotten quite the face lift in the last week. They entered last week’s winter meetings needing only one starter to round out their rotation but have proceeded to ditch an incumbent and make two additions instead.

Gone is Dan Haren, as the veteran right-hander was shipped to the Miami Marlins as part of a seven-player trade headlined by speedy second baseman Dee Gordon. In are Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, who have both signed as free agents.

As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported, McCarthy and the Dodgers finalized a four-year, $48 million contract on Monday. According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, Anderson has agreed to a one-year deal that will guarantee him $10 million with another $4 million available through incentives.

The big knock on these deals is that the Dodgers have committed a lot of money to two fragile players.

McCarthy, a 31-year-old right-hander, had never pitched more than 170.2 innings before hitting 200 in 2014. Anderson, a 26-year-old left-hander, has pitched a total of 206.1 innings over the last four seasons and hasn’t even made it to 45 innings in either of the last two.

With Anderson in particular, it’s OK if your first thought was that the Dodgers were betting on converting him into a reliever. But Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times clarified that’s not the case:

The phrase “reclamation project” comes to mind in talking about Anderson. But as far as such things go, he’s a good one.

Though Anderson has had all sorts of injuries since 2010, it’s a silver lining that it hasn’t been arm and shoulder injuries slowing him down recently. Tommy John surgery sidelined him for most of 2011 and 2012, but it’s foot, finger and back injuries that have done the trick in the last two seasons.

If the injury bug leaves Anderson alone, the Dodgers stand to get a southpaw with good control (2.42 career BB/9) whose main specialty is keeping the ball on the ground. Per FanGraphs, his 61.9 ground-ball percentage over the last two seasons is seventh highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings.

As it happens, getting ground balls is also one of McCarthy’s specialties. Only 10 qualified starters have logged a ground-ball rate over 50 percent since the start of 2013, and he’s one of them.

McCarthy’s more than a one-trick pony, though. He’s an excellent control artist, as his 1.45 walks-per-nine-inning rate over the last two seasons puts him among the elites. He’s also coming off a career-best strikeout rate.

That was an offshoot of a big velocity increase, which is the kind of thing that looks fluky on a guy McCarthy’s age. But it’s possible that both McCarthy’s extra velocity and newfound durability were the results of an offseason in which he was able to focus on working out instead of on rehabbing from injury.

If you’re looking for an accurate depiction of McCarthy’s potential, don’t look at the 5.01 ERA he had with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2014. Focus instead on the 2.89 ERA he had with the New York Yankees. He really can be that good.

So in Anderson, the Dodgers have a worthwhile reclamation project who could turn out to be a lot better than a No. 5 starter if he stays healthy. And though McCarthy will only be a No. 4 in their rotation, he could be a No. 3 or a No. 2 for plenty of other teams.

The back end of the Dodgers rotation thus looks a lot stronger than it did the last time we saw it. By the end of 2014, it consisted of a homer-prone merchant of “meh” in Haren and a rotating cast of schmoes who were filling in for the injured (and since retired) Josh Beckett.

Want to know how good the Dodgers rotation can be now that it’s been upgraded with McCarthy and Anderson?

How about the best in baseball?

If we’re being honest, that’s a notion that really shouldn’t be catching anyone off guard.

This is, after all, a rotation that wouldn’t let the homer-happy Haren and a series of hapless Beckett stand-ins keep it from posting a 3.20 ERA that was second best in all of baseball. More than anything, that goes to show just how good Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu were at the top.

So do these numbers in particular:

Kershaw’s numbers serve as a reminder of why he won by the National League Cy Young and MVP awards. Though his season ended on a sour note in October, on a start-to-start basis he enjoyed one of the most dominant regular seasons of all time.

Then there’s Greinke, who was a top-15 pitcher by ERA and a top-20 pitcher by WAR. And though Ryu’s 3.38 ERA and 3.5 WAR don’t look as good, it’s worth noting that his WAR was good enough to put him just 0.1 off Madison Bumgarner’s pace.

Exactly what made this trio so good isn’t hard to discern if you focus on the important stuff. They limited walks and home runs and picked up strikeouts and ground balls as well or better than the average starter, which is a pretty good way to get ahead in life.

These three will once again be leading the charge in 2015, and there’s no reason to expect them to regress. Factor in how they should get some solid support from McCarthy and Anderson, and it makes sense that FanGraphs would have Dodgers starters projected for more WAR than anyone else’s.

That’s a projection based on the talent of said starters. But if we take a moment to consider the talent around them, it’s surprisingly reasonable to think that the Dodgers could have the majors’ most effective starting rotation by far in 2015.

The Dodgers rotation isn’t the only thing Friedman has upgraded in the last week. In jettisoning right fielder Matt Kemp and adding shortstop Jimmy Rollins, second baseman Howie Kendrick and Yasmani Grandal behind the plate, the team’s entire run-prevention unit has gotten a boost.

As Friedman explained to Hernandez: “I’d be OK if we scored 200 runs next year if we allowed 100, just going to a crazy example.”

Though that probably is too crazy of an example, don’t be surprised if the Dodgers come closer to allowing only 100 runs than any other team.

The Kemp trade was addition by subtraction on defense, as the Dodgers no longer have to worry about having arguably the league’s worst defender in the outfield every day. Rollins and Kendrick, meanwhile, are two strong defenders taking the place of two weak defenders in Hanley Ramirez and Gordon.

As for Grandal, his talent is maximizing his pitchers’ production. He does that by making sure they get strikes, as Mark Simon of ESPN.com explains here:

Grandal rated best in the majors at getting strikes called when he should. Umpires called 89 percent of the pitches he caught in the strike zone as strikes, six percentage points above the major-league average. 

Grandal also got called strikes on 10 percent of pitches that the Pitch F/X tracking system deemed to be out of the strike zone. That ranked eighth-best among the 40 catchers who caught the most pitches last season. 

In all, it’s going to be very hard to score runs against the Dodgers in 2015. A starting rotation that was guaranteed to be good thanks to Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu now has the potential to be great thanks to the additions of McCarthy and Anderson, as well as all the new pieces that will help elevate the rotation.

Though many things have changed for the Dodgers this winter, one thing that hasn’t is that this is still a club with World Series aspirations. Friedman has built a team designed to make good on those aspirations by making life a living hell for opposing offenses.

The defensive upgrades will help, but it will be up to the Dodgers’ starting rotation to lead the way. With the most dominant pitcher in the world anchoring a deep collection of talent, it should be up to the task.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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Grading the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Offseason Post-Winter Meetings

A+

No, seriously. A+. Catcher has been upgraded, shortstop has been upgraded, second base has been upgraded, depth has been added, and essentially all it cost was Matt Kemp and a left-handed pitching prospect named Tom Windle.

I will break down each move individually below, but the main takeaway for Dodger fans should be relief. The joy of having a competent front office is not a feeling Dodger fans have had much recent experience with. But Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi proved their worth in a crazy 12-hour period.

A quick recap:

IN: SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Howie Kendrick, C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Brandon McCarthy, RHP Joe Wieland, RHP Chris Hatcher, assorted minor leaguers

OUT: 2B Dee Gordon, RF Matt Kemp, RHP Dan Haren, SS Miguel Rojas, LHP Tom Windle, C Tim Federowicz

Got all that? Great, because it gets more confusing. The Phillies trade and the Padres trade are interconnected; according to CSNPhilly.com, the players going to Philadelphia for Rollins are reportedly minor leaguers Tom Windle and Zach Eflin. While that seems simple, Eflin is coming from San Diego in the Kemp trade—which has not actually been finalized yet because physicals are still pending. And each of Kemp (shoulder and hamstring), Wieland (elbow) and Grandal (knee) has significant injury concerns, so the physicals are not a formality.

The Marlin and Angel deals are finalized, so at least there’s no mystery. Additionally, the Brandon McCarthy deal appears to be done as well, according to ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon.

Notes: The following recaps will assume all mentioned trades will be successfully completed. All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

 

Marlins

This trade is the simplest. Per ESPN, the Dodgers traded Dee Gordon, Dan Haren and Miguel Rojas and received LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, IF Enrique Hernandez and C Austin Barnes.

Hatcher has thrown 89.2 career innings in the major leagues, and he has seen mixed success. His 4.82 ERA is uninspiring, but his 3.56 FIP and 3.51 xFIP tell us that he is better than that number. He could very well turn into a competent part of the bullpen.

Barnes and Hernandez are minor leaguers. They are quality organizational depth, and acquiring such players is a skill that former general manager Ned Colletti appeared to lack.

Heaney was subsequently flipped to the Angels.

In terms of the players the Dodgers gave up, Gordon is the only potential loss. Rojas was a competent defense-first backup, but he is replaceable. In fact, Erisbel Arruebarrena is still on the roster, and he can be what Rojas was. Haren was not good last year: He posted a 4.02 ERA despite getting help from a .276 BABIP.

Gordon is the question mark. A more detailed analysis can be found here, but essentially Gordon has half a season of good performance and about 250 games of below-average performance. It’s entirely within the realm of possibility that his first half of 2014 was his real performance and he simply suffered through a slump in August and September. I, however, would bet on his overall career numbers being more indicative of the future than a three-month hot streak.

Angels

The Dodgers traded Andrew Heaney to the Angels for Howie Kendrick, per Mark Saxon of ESPN. It is unclear whether or not this was a three-team trade or if the Dodgers had the option to keep Heaney, but regardless, they acquired a significant upgrade at second base.

Howie Kendrick is a legitimately good hitter. Since getting a full-time job in 2009, he has had just one below-average offensive year (a 98 wRC+ in 2010). Additionally, 2010 was also his only negative defensive year. That type of production from a middle-infield spot is extremely valuable.

 

Phillies

This tweet from Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly (h/t Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal) started the 12-hour saga, and it signaled the arrival of the Dodgers’ 2015 shortstop. Rollins is not the MVP candidate he was several years ago, but he is still a valuable shortstop. His 103 wRC+ from 2011, 101 from 2012, and and 102 from 2014 demonstrate that he can still hit, and he actually continues to post positive defensive numbers as well.

By far the most amazing part of this trade is that the Dodgers essentially gave up nothing. Zach Eflin was not a member of the Dodger organization before yesterday, and Tom Windle is a lefty from High-A who may end up in the bullpen.

Padres

Matt Kemp being traded, as reported by ESPN, is the most controversial deal the Dodgers made yesterday. He is a fan favorite and also the most talented of the potential trade options (Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford), but that talent meant that he was most likely to bring back a significant return. Of course, he is also not a guarantee to continue to perform.

The optimism surrounding him is related to his second half. After the All-Star break last season, Kemp posted a 170 wRC+, which would have been the best mark in the league if he had continued it for the whole year. The problem, however, is that there’s no guarantee that Kemp would be that good in the future. In fact, he’d probably be closer to his career mark of 128.

Additionally, though, none of this analysis factors in age, defense or contract. Kemp is already 30 years old and thus past his peak, so his performance is likely to decline as he gets older. His defense is bad: He has been a positive defender just once in his career (2009), and the last two years are two of his worst years. Plus, as he moves to right field, he will lose any value he gained simply from being in center field.

Finally, his contract status cannot be ignored. He was owed over $100 million over the next five years, so even with the $32 million the Dodgers are sending to San Diego, the Dodgers make immense savings (about $70 million).

The players the Dodgers are receiving are not scrubs, either. Wieland does not have much of a major league track record, but he has a career 3.27 minor league ERA.

Grandal, though, is the centerpiece. The switch-hitting catcher will likely split time with AJ Ellis, but he is probably a better player. He has put up a wRC+ over 100 (league average) each season, and his career mark is 119. This compares favorably to AJ Ellis’ mark of 98. His defense is also an improvement, though. It surely has not escaped this front office’s attention that Ellis ranked 99th out of 100 eligible catchers in pitch framing last year, while Grandal ranked 13th.

 

Brandon McCarthy

A free agent, McCarthy signed a four-year, $48 million contract, per Mark Saxon of ESPN. He has actually been quite good over the course of his career—as long as he can stay healthy, that is. He has not posted a FIP over 4.00 since 2009, and he has posted the best strikeout-to-walk ratios of his career over those same last four years. The problem, though, is that 2014 was the only year of his career that he made more than 25 starts.

McCarthy represents a significant upgrade over Dan Haren, whom he is likely replacing. He is also a health risk, but when he’s on the mound, he’s a competent back-of-the-rotation starter.

Thus, overall, the Dodgers’ winter meetings cannot be deemed anything but a massive success. They upgraded at three different positions and added some minor league depth while shedding roughly $70 million of payroll obligations for the next five years.

 

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

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