Kuzul

Are you familiar with the popular baseball phrase “small sample size?” Well, that’s what we’re dealing with here. I won’t sugarcoat it. One week and eight games of baseball is not nearly enough to measure who is “slumping” or “surging.”

But every game truly does count, so the quicker the Dodgers who are struggling can snap out of it, the sooner they can distance themselves from the rest of the NL West.

Right now, a few of the big bats are struggling, but the depth of the stacked lineup has allowed the Dodgers to continue playing well and winning ball games. But for the ones who are slumping, is it time for Dodgers fans to panic? Or is it time to take a step back and exercise some patience?

Here are five guys who are fighting early struggles in Los Angeles, and whether or not they can snap out of it.

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The news of the day in Dodgers Land was shaping up to be Matt Kemp’s activation from the disabled list for the team’s home opener against the division rival San Francisco Giants.

It didn’t take long for Yasiel Puig to overshadow that news, though. In fact, he made it completely irrelevant.

Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times tweeted that Puig thought he had to be at the stadium at 10 a.m. PT, but the team took the field for stretching exercises at 9:40 a.m. PT. By showing up late, the controversial outfielder was benched, handing over his place in the lineup to Kemp—despite earlier comments from manager Don Mattingly, who said he didn’t want to “throw him into the fire.”

Puig had successfully re-directed the focus to yet another one of his antics.

After the team’s two-game sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks in Australia on March 22-23, Mattingly openly questioned whether Puig was really injured after he pulled himself out of the game following his strikeout in the top of the ninth inning. 

Interestingly enough, Mattingly told reporters prior to the game that the 23-year-old outfielder “grabs something every time he takes a swing and misses.”

When asked about Puig postgame, Mattingly answered sarcastically, “Shoulder yesterday, back today, so I’m not sure if they’re going to get him tests or get him to the MRI Monday or a bone scan on Tuesday, maybe. I’m not quite sure what we’ll do. We may not do anything. I’m not sure.”

The following Tuesday, Mattingly held a team meeting to clear the air and allow the young superstar a chance to address his teammates and vice versa (via Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com).

“I asked them to please keep helping me,” Puig said. “Specifically with baserunning and hitting my cutoff man. I want them to help me with everything they can.”

Puig‘s veteran teammates and the Dodgers’ coaching staff undoubtedly have no problem helping him improve as a baseball player. It’s doubtful, though, that they want to be in charge of making sure he shows up on time, drives closer to the posted speed limit or keeps his weight in check during the offseason. 

The problem with Puig may be that he’s too talented for his own good. He does things like this too often…

When it comes down to it, the punishment that might ultimately humble him and turn him into the disciplined and mature ballplayer the Dodgers want him to be could also hurt their chances to win in 2014.

Benching him for a game is not enough. Big leaguers take occasional days off during the 162-game season. Benching Puig for more than a few games is not possible. He’ll be needed as a pinch hitter and will have a chance to become a hero once again. Game-winning pinch-hit homers will not likely result in a lesson being learned. 

How about sending him to the minors where Mattingly won’t be tempted to put him in the lineup and where he won’t be nearly as revered by Dodgers fans as when he’s on a major league baseball field? Now we’re getting somewhere.

For how long? Officially, it should be for an “unspecified amount of time.” In reality, it should be for however long the Dodgers feel is necessary for Puig to grow up.

And now that I’ve revealed the probable solution, it’s time for a reality check.

We all know that the Dodgers cannot afford to send one of the most talented players in the game to the minors. They’re already without ace Clayton Kershaw (back injury) for at least the next month. That’s enough adversity to try and overcome. They’ll be an inferior team without Puig in their lineup. 

In the 104 regular-season games Puig played in last season, the Dodgers were 66-38. Puig had a .319/.391/.534 slash line with 19 homers and 42 runs batted in. They were 26-32 without him in the lineup. 

The Dodgers’ impressive run after a poor start wasn’t all Puig‘s doing. But his arrival in the majors in early June provided the necessary spark for a lifeless team that finished the year as one of the best squads in the majors.

They’re not interested in finding out how much of a spark they’ll lose without him.

For at least this season, the Dodgers will continue to deal with “Puig being Puig” because they have no other choice. They want to bring a World Series title to Los Angeles, and it’s hard to see them doing that without Puig‘s bat in the lineup.

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Los Angeles Dodgers star center fielder Matt Kemp is back in the lineup for Friday’s home opener against the San Francisco Giants after recovering from a potentially career-threatening left ankle injury.

While Kemp was projected to return in more of a pinch-hitting capacity, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reported outfielder Yasiel Puig was tardy to Friday’s practice and subsequently benched for the game.

The MLB Lineups Twitter feed confirmed the news:

The Dodgers knew Kemp likely wouldn’t return for the Opening Series games in Australia, which began March 22 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he was later placed on the disabled list just before the first game of the 2014 regular season.

Manager Don Mattingly provided an encouraging update on March 25, suggesting that Kemp could indeed be activated for L.A.’s home opener against the rival Giants:

Kemp’s health makes matters even more complicated for the crowded Dodgers outfield. Puig burst onto the scene as an instant star in right field last season, and Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford are both multi-time All-Stars.

Kemp has refused to settle for a bench role, which makes sense given the caliber of player he’s proven to be when he’s not injured. Per ESPN Los Angeles’ Mark Saxon:

I’m not a fourth outfielder. We can cut that off right there. I won’t accept that role. I can’t accept that role…The [general manager], his job is to do what he does, and I’m going to do what I do. My job is to help the team win. We’ve all got decisions to make and responsibilities. I’m sure it’ll all, you know, come out the way it’s supposed to come out, but I can’t worry about things I can’t control.

If Kemp returns to his previous level of play, Mattingly may be tempted to shuffle him into the lineup more often than Puig, who has already stirred controversy with his antics early in the 2014 season.

Chris Jones of ESPN The Magazine empathized with Mattingly in analyzing Puig’s behavior:

As for Kemp, there is an evident competitive fire to prove his detractors wrong and emulate the form he flashed in between 2009 and 2011. In the latter season, he led the National League with 39 home runs, 126 RBI and 115 runs scored while also stealing 40 bases, finishing second in league MVP balloting.

Unfortunately, Kemp’s body may not allow him to return to an All-Star level. With a total of 145 games missed over the past two campaigns, Los Angeles must tread with caution in easing Kemp back in. According to a report by Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, if he rushes back too soon, he can cause permanent damage to his ailing talus bone, which would put his career in jeopardy.

If Kemp isn’t quite fit enough to play right away, there’s no reason to rush him back with the star power in Tinseltown. That’s especially so since the Dodgers won the NL West Division crown in 2013, proving they could get it done without Kemp for more than half the year.

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Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Brian Wilson was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a nerve irritation in his right (pitching) elbow, the team announced following Tuesday’s 3-2 win over the San Diego Padres.

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com first reported Wilson was having issues with his elbow:

Wilson, 32, was not one of the four relievers manager Don Mattingly used to close out the win for starter Zack Greinke. J.P. Howell occupied the eighth-inning role that Wilson was supposed to shore up this season.

In his second season with the Dodgers, Wilson was already having trouble returning to his 2013 form. He imploded in the team’s U.S. opener on Sunday night, allowing three earned runs and failing to record an out in a 3-1 victory for San Diego. Wilson held in his first appearance of the season in Australia.

Known for at times wild inconsistencies (as well as bouts with being borderline unhittable), Wilson’s game-costing inning was something the Dodgers rarely saw last season. In 18 regular-season appearances, the flame-throwing righty allowed just one earned run—a streak that earned him a one-year, $10 million contract from the team this offseason.

“One thing with Brian, he’s always on the edge and he’s always painting,” Mattingly told reporters following the loss. “Tonight it seemed like he must have been missing that edge out there. He wasn’t as sharp as we’ve seen him.”

Now, it seems the Dodgers are going to be getting used to another side of Wilson. The bearded reliever, once an integral part of the San Francisco Giants‘ 2010 World Series team, saw his career nearly end due to battles with arm injuries. He has twice undergone Tommy John surgery, first in college at LSU and then again in April 2012. 

The Giants allowed Wilson to walk into free agency the following winter, where he waited until midway through the summer of 2013 to sign on with the rival Dodgers. Given his history, it will be interesting to see how the Dodgers handle the injury. Mattingly said Wilson “felt some things going on” in his elbow, per ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne, but he did not indicate the severity.

Adrian Garro of Fox Sports noted that, on the surface, the prognosis doesn’t sound promising:

According to Brooks Baseball, Wilson’s velocity was down from his 2013 self, which could either have been an early sign of injury or simply a guy working his way back into top condition. Depending on how a player reacts to spring training, velocity can at times take a little longer to get back.

Regardless, the Dodgers have to feel a little more shaky now than they did heading into the season. Howell, Chris Perez and Brandon League are all capable of stepping into a potential set-up role for as long as Wilson is out, but none touch the consistency he gave to the role last season. Perez was, at one point in his career, groomed as one of the league’s best set-up men, so it could work out over the long term.

Even at 3-1 after Tuesday’s win, this still wasn’t the way Wilson or the Dodgers envisioned Year 2 of their relationship starting.

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With Opening Day finally in the books, the Los Angeles Dodgers have officially begun their NL West title defense. Whether or not they will be successful is obviously the big question of the season. As we look forward six months, there are certainly plenty of reasons to be hopeful.

Indeed, the season has actually gotten off to a good start: A two-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks in Australia left the Dodgers in first place to start the season. There are many reasons to be confident for the upcoming season.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.

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Yasiel Puig’s first home run of the 2014 season may not stop traveling until he hits his second. 

The powerful-yet-sometimes-polarizing right fielder crushed a towering shot off of the San Diego Padres‘ Ian Kennedy in the first inning on Tuesday afternoon, giving the Los Angeles Dodgers an early 2-0 lead. 

You can take a look at the majestic home run right here, courtesy of MLB.com.

ESPN Stats & Info gave some details about the bomb, although with the way Puig’s home run carried to the moon and back before landing in the second deck, the final distance doesn’t quite tell the whole story:

Last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up recorded just one extra-base hit in his first 13 at-bats of the season, and it was revealed that he was dealing with some inflammation in his back, but it sure seems like he’s feeling fine now. 

Puig hit 19 homers and drove in 42 runs in 104 games last season, and as long as he stays healthy and out of manager Don Mattingly’s doghouse, the 23-year-old is a strong bet to crush those numbers. 

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That creaking sound you hear coming from the general direction of the NL West is that of a door of opportunity opening up, and it has everything to do with an injured $215 million pitcher.

You know who, as you’ve surely heard that Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is out with a back injury these days. Given that Kershaw is generally awesome, this is a big enough bummer for the Dodgers. Not to mention all fans who enjoy watching brilliant pitching, of course.

What’s worse is that Kershaw’s outlook is getting iffier by the day. Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times noted the latest on Tuesday afternoon, starting with this:

And then this:

Here’s more from Mattingly, via MLB.com: “We’ll let him throw his way back. He’s gotten far enough away that he’ll need a progression [to return]. This is going to take some time.”

Kershaw’s troubles began with him being scratched from the Dodgers’ domestic opener on Sunday against the San Diego Padres, but at the time the Dodgers’ home opener on April 4 was still in play. Ever since then, however, the date of Kershaw’s eventual return has kept getting moved back.

B/R’s Will Carroll warned that was a possibility, writing that the specific injury to Kershaw’s teres major muscle was one that meant a “broad range of timelines” for the star southpaw’s reappearance.

We now know that Kershaw’s return is not going to happen sooner. As for how much later it could occur, the Dodgers tweeted this out:

If Kershaw isn’t even going to be reevaluated for another couple weeks, then a minor league assignment is all but assured. And given that such an assignment would delay his return even further, it’s conceivable that Kershaw won’t be able to make it back before the end of April.

Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News hit the nail on the head with his second thought here:

He’s right, you know.

Heck, I’ll do him one better: this might be the best chance the other teams in the NL West get all season to get the better of the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have more talent than the other teams in the NL West. That’s clear just to the naked eye, as the $200-plus million the Dodgers have spent on their 2014 roster does look like money well spent on paper. 

The projections also agree that the Dodgers are easily the best team in the NL West. For example, the PECOTA-based projections at Baseball Prospectus have a nine-win gap projected between the Dodgers and the next-best team in the division.

Even the more modest projections at FanGraphs have a sizable gap projected between the Dodgers and everyone else:

If Kershaw does indeed miss a couple more weeks, however, things obviously stand to change. The Dodgers would be missing out on a couple starts from their ace, and that’s no small deal knowing how valuable Kershaw’s starts are.

FanGraphs can show that Kershaw’s 1.83 ERA last year helped make him worth 8.8 wins above replacement as calculated by runs allowed per nine innings (RA-9 WAR). The rough math says he was therefore worth about 1.5 WAR per month.

Which, as it happens, is exactly how much Kershaw was worth last April when he had a 1.73 ERA in six starts. That wasn’t even his best month, as he was worth 2.4 RA-9 WAR in July when he had 1.34 ERA in six starts.

Even if we assume that Kershaw doesn’t have another sub-2.00 ERA in him and dial things back a bit, it’s still hard to make an argument that losing him for a couple weeks wouldn’t hurt.

Kershaw’s been worth an average of 7.6 RA-9 WAR over the last three seasons, or right around 1.3 RA-9 WAR per month. The next best thing in the National League is Cliff Lee, whose 18.0 RA-9 WAR over the last three seasons comes out to an average of 1.0 RA-9 WAR per month.

The bottom line is that a couple weeks without Kershaw could mean anywhere between 1.0 and 2.0 (or even a bit beyond 2.0) WAR lost for the Dodgers.

It’s not easy to translate that into actual wins and losses, but you can think of it this way: there are only a handful of position players capable of generating between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR in a month. The Dodgers losing Kershaw for a few weeks is basically the equivalent of them losing a superstar everyday player.

The Dodgers still have the goods to be a strong team, sure. But until Kershaw comes back, they’re not going to be the team projected to handily win the NL West. Herein lies the cue for the Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres and Rockies:

Win as many games as you can now while the getting’s good in the NL West race.

Even better for these four clubs is that each will have a chance to inflict damage on the Dodgers directly. Including the series against the Padres that the Dodgers are in the middle of right now, six of the eight full series out of the gate on their domestic schedule are against NL West competition.

It’s conceivable that Kershaw would have been able to pitch in five of the six, which might have meant five wins for the Dodgers against NL West foes. But with Kershaw no sure bet to return in April, the stage is set for the pendulum to swing in the opposite direction. 

And that could be enough to lead to an upset in the NL West race. Many games are left to be played after the first month of the season is in the books, but losses in April count just as much as losses in any other month.

A couple days ago, the Dodgers were such a huge favorite to win the NL West that the matter was hardly worth discussing. But that was when the Dodgers were still looking at getting a full season from the most dominant pitcher in baseball.

With him sidelined, suddenly the Dodgers don’t look so tough.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers began the defending of their 2013 NL West division title by pummeling the Arizona Diamondbacks in their two-game series in Sydney, Australia, last Saturday. The 3-1 and 7-5 victories were an ideal start to a campaign filled with champagne dreams. However, Dodgers fans should resist the urge to start waiving World Series championship flags with 160 games still left on the schedule.

The Dodgers will look to remain undefeated when they face the San Diego Padres on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball this weekend.

Here are five takeaways from the opening series against Arizona that Dodgers fans would do well to forget by Sunday night.

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The Dodgers picked up 2014 right where last season left off—dashing the rival Diamondbacks‘ hopes and dreams on their home field. Only this time, the “home field” was in front of thousands of Australian fans at Sydney Cricket Ground. 

Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu teamed up to pitch the Dodgers past Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo and the D’Backs in a two-game sweep that looked very much like a World Series contender crushing a team still stuck in spring training.

In the first game, Kershaw twirled a masterpiece and Scott Van Slyke provided the power in a 3-1 win. Game 2 saw an early 7-0 lead for the Dodgers turn into a 7-5 win after a shaky bullpen performance made it interesting late. 

But, the Dodgers flew home winners with a very premature two-game lead in the NL West and unlimited bragging rights in hand. Not everyone’s March will end on a happy note, though, even for the winners. Here are three players who “won” in Sydney, and three who “lost” and may be sent packing for the Dodgers.

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Following Saturday morning’s 3-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Los Angeles Dodgers have won their season opener in four consecutive years for the first time since 1963-66, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Such a streak comes as no surprise, given that the Dodgers had ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound for each of those four games.

The left-hander made his first Opening Day start in 2011, holding the San Francisco Giants scoreless for seven innings. The following year, he came down with an illness and had to be removed from the opener early, after tossing three shutout innings against the San Diego Padres in a game that the Dodgers would ultimately win, 5-3. 

Opening Day 2013 was the best of the bunch, with Kershaw facing just 30 batters in a complete-game shutout versus the archrival Giants. It was one of the more memorable early-season games in recent history, as the fire-balling lefty broke a scoreless tie in the eighth inning by hitting the first home run of his career.

While he’s pretty good in the batter’s box by a pitcher’s standards, Kershaw still has just the one home run and a mere three doubles in 347 career at-bats.

Saturday morning’s game may not have been as exciting as the Dodgers’ 2013 opener, but Kershaw still played a leading role, allowing one run in 6.1 innings with seven strikeouts on the way to his first of many wins this season. While the game itself was nothing special, the 26-year-old ace will always be able to say that he took the winning decision in the first MLB game played in Australia.

Given an Opening Day track record that includes just one run over 25.1 innings, it’s tempting to say that Kershaw steps his game up for the first start of the season. However, the sample size is still rather meaningless, as it’s hardly out of the ordinary for the Dodgers ace to string together a similarly impressive string of starts.

Another Opening Day win will surely be appreciated in Los Angeles, but the goal is to win the season’s last game, not it’s first. Having said that, the last time the Dodgers won four consecutive openers, they captured championships in two of those seasons (1963 and 1965), with a National League pennant in 1966 to boot.

Led by the legendary duo of Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale, those Dodgers teams surprisingly used three different Opening Day starters over the four-year period, with Claude Osteen joining the aforementioned pair of Hall of Famers.

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