Kuzul

The distance between Los Angeles, Calif., and Sydney, Australia, is roughly 7,500 miles or 6,500 nautical miles. For Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, the difference between an $11 million salary in 2013 and a $215 million contract extension is even bigger.

Despite the unique circumstances around Major League Baseball’s Opening Day and Kershaw‘s freshly minted status as the highest-paid arm in the history of the sport, his dominance remains the same. 

In baseball, money seems to change the production and trajectory of stars on a yearly basis. After signing the record-breaking deal in the offseason, Kershaw took the mound at the Sydney Cricket Ground eager to make fans remember him for performance, not salary.

With an excellent game (6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 7 SO, 1 BB), the 26-year-old lefty did just that. Kershaw toyed with the Arizona Diamondbacks and lifted the Dodgers to the first of what should be many wins during the 2014 season. 

The contract and status as the best pitcher in the sport will follow Kershaw throughout the season, but don’t expect the added pressure, expectations or dollar figure to change the once-in-a-generation talent.

That was evident during his last frame in Australia. When Dodgers manager Don Mattingly walked to the mound to remove his ace from the game, Kershaw bristled.

On March 22, the team can’t push its most important player past the 101-pitch mark. Surely Kershaw understood why he was being removed from the game, but it didn’t matter.

As a competitor and staff leader, he wanted to continue mowing down Arizona’s lineup. 

After posting an unsightly 9.20 ERA across 14.2 spring training innings, Kershaw found fastball command and featured his typical filthy array of curveballs and sliders against a hapless and confounded Diamondbacks lineup.

Despite the spring struggles, Mattingly didn’t panic or show any concern during the Cactus League slate, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com:

Good thing is, it’s Spring Training, that’s why we’re here. He had the same kind of spring last year. He has a level of expectation of always being good. I don’t have a problem with that. He expects to be in midseason form, and we keep working toward that. He gets frustrated. That’s why we love him.

Among the great qualities Kershaw possesses on the mound—velocity, command, work ethic, drive, stamina—none supersedes his desire to compete, win and perform at the highest level possible. 

One game into the 2014 season, the 2013 version of Kershaw was on display.

Last season, on the path to a third consecutive ERA title, he had 17 games of at least 6.2 innings pitched and allowing one or fewer earned runs. As you would imagine, that was more than any starter in baseball by a wide margin. 

As the season progresses, expect a slew of double-digit strikeout and low walk totals from a pitcher who has sported a 4.20 SO/BB since the start of the 2011 season, per Baseball-Reference.

In the season opener, Kershaw merely posted a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For him, that’s a typical outing. For others, it’s a career day.

Last year, he had 12 outings of at least seven strikeouts and no more than one walk, tying Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez for the league lead, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required). Since the start of the 2011 season, Kershaw has pitched 29 games of equal performance. 

On Opening Day, the country was different, and the field and surface were foreign. 

But when the bell rang, nothing changed for a starter on the verge of a rare career. For Kershaw, the opening tilt in Sydney might as well have been an innocuous June start against the Padres in San Diego.

That, more than seven strikeouts or run-suppressing pitching, is what stood out. 

As 2014 recorded its first chapter, the narrative read much like the story of 2013 when it came to Kershaw‘s performance. 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics are from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections via MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher on the National League‘s best team. After a 92-win season, trip to the NLCS and Cy Young campaign for the dominant southpaw, expectations were set to be sky high for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2014.

That was before the team handed Kershaw a seven-year, $215 million contract extension during the offseason.

Now, with the most expensive arm in the history of the sport and a payroll over $200 million, anything short of a World Series appearance and start-by-start dominance from Kershaw will be a major disappointment for Dodgers fans.

Don’t expect that type of reaction at Chavez Ravine this season. Although the success of Kershaw and the Dodgers are separate, winning is clearly intertwined. 

If Kershaw continues to dominate the sport, Los Angeles will win baseball games. If the Dodgers offense provides the lefty with adequate run support, another eye-popping season will commence for one of the best young pitchers the game has ever seen. 

On the path to greatness, Kershaw‘s career has begun to unfold alongside the best to ever toe the rubber in any generation. 

Among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched—allowing long-time relievers like Mariano Rivera the chance to be part of the discussion—Kershaw‘s ERA+ of 146 is the seventh best in baseball history, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

At face value, that statistic is amazing. Yet, when considering the names below him on the list—Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Koufax—it becomes startling. 

That dominance hasn’t been a product of luck or happenstance. Kershaw‘s ability to dominate and overpower hitters has been evident by a career strikeout rate of 9.2 K/9. With 1,206 career strikeouts under his belt, Kershaw ranks ninth in punch-outs among pitchers through their respective age-25 campaigns. 

Factor in durability—five straight years of 30-plus starts—and it’s easy to see why the Dodgers were comfortable allotting $215 million to the ascending ace. 

Now, the fun begins.

As Kershaw traverses through his prime and gigantic contract, expectations will only rise. With two NL Cy Young’s under his belt, baseball fans know how great he’s been. Over the next few years—starting in 2014—a new Kershaw watch will begin: The path to all-time greatness.

On an outing-by-outing basis, fans will come to expect overwhelming dominance. Beyond the causal observer, projections systems and analysts will tout the best pitcher in baseball as a lock for 20-plus wins and excellence across statistical categories. 

If Kershaw is sweating the expectations, he’s not showing it yet. 

According to Jon Weisman of Dodger Insider, the 26-year-old lefty is ready for the increased expectations and doesn’t see the negative to the hype surrounding his game and fame:

I don’t think there’s a negative. I think it’s how you look at it. Obviously, there’s gonna be a lot of expectations as it should be, if your salary’s out there and you’re one of the top players in the game, you’re gonna be expected to be one of the best players in the game. That’s fine with me. I look forward to those expectations and look forward to trying to live up to them.

Those expectations won’t just follow Kershaw in 2014.

PECOTA—an acronym for Baseball Prospectus’ Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm—is notoriously hard to impress. When preseason win projections arrive annually, the projection system routinely groups teams within 10 games of .500.

It’s very hard to stand out from the crowd in the eyes of PECOTA. Yet, as Matt Snyder of CBS Sports pointed out, the projection system has the Dodgers slated for a 98-win campaign in 2014. 

Led by Kershaw, the Dodgers are expected to dominate the NL West and arrive back to October as one of the few teams in the league with a legitimate chance to make a trip to the World Series.

As baseball fans have seen over the years, October baseball can be very, very difficult to project and predict. It’s safe to say that the best team doesn’t always win it all. With variance separating similar teams and short series superseding the marathon nature of the 162-game regular season, October can take favorites and render them disappointments. 

For the Dodgers and Kershaw, it’s hard to imagine a season without a trip to October. 

Yet, many fans will call this season a disappointment if Kershaw—after another Cy Young campaign—isn’t the winning pitcher in a championship-clinching World Series game.

Those expectations are unfair and over the top.

Instead, expect the following criteria to be met: From Opening Day through the end of the regular season, Kershaw and the Dodgers will dominate the NL West, win 95-plus games and give fans a glimpse at this generation’s best pitcher on a weekly basis. 

Using that baseline, Kershaw and the Dodgers will live up to expectations. If October turns into a coronation for baseball’s most expensive roster, they could exceed them with a championship parade in Los Angeles.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Breakout Performances from the Dodgers’ First Two Weeks of Spring Training

The Los Angeles Dodgers are among the favorites to win the World Series in 2014 after reaching the National League Championship Series last year. The lofty expectations are fueled by the return of well-established—and well paid—stars such as Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez.

However, a couple of breakout performances during spring training mean that some unexpected names could help the Dodgers end their 26-year World Series drought.

Players that thrive in February and March don’t always turn out to be meaningful contributors during the regular season. But here are two Dodgers that have raised some eyebrows with their stellar play this spring.

Justin Turner, INF

When Justin Turner signed a minor league contract with the Dodgers in February, it didn’t register as a significant offseason move. However, Turner has swung a hot bat this spring, and his versatility could make him the top utility infielder off the Dodgers bench.

Turner has hit .333 in 24 spring training at-bats while getting starts at second base, third base and shortstop. He’s also appeared in 26 games as a first baseman during his five-year major league career, making Turner a valuable player off of the bench.

A career .260 hitter, Turner hit a career-best .280 in 82 games with the New York Mets last season.

Neither Dee Gordon nor Alex Guerrero, the presumed favorites to win the starting job at second, have been particularly impressive this spring. Chone Figgins and Brendan Harris have also struggled at the plate while competing with Turner to become L.A.’s primary utility infielder.

Mark Ellis, Nick Punto and Skip Schumaker are no longer in Los Angeles, and the other second base options have failed to impress. With a strong spring performance, Turner has earned a spot on the Dodgers’ Opening Day roster.

Seth Rosin, RHP

Seth Rosin faced long odds of making the Dodgers’ 25-man roster when he was traded from the Philadelphia Phillies last December. But Rosin has excelled on the mound this spring, adding further uncertainty to an already crowded bullpen.

The 26-year-old right-hander has an impressive 1.64 ERA and 12:2 KK:BB ratio in 11 innings this spring.

The Dodgers added depth to their bullpen last offseason by re-signing Bryan Wilson and adding free agents Chris Perez and Paul Maholm.

Both Wilson and Perez have historically been late-game, one-inning pitchers, making their presence less threatening to Rosin’s chances of sticking with Los Angeles. Maholm has a strong major league track record as a starter and long reliever. However, the veteran lefty has struggled mightily this spring, giving up 10 hits and six earned runs in just 7.2 innings.

Dodgers prospects Paco Rodriguez and Chris Withrow, both of whom contributed to the club’s 2013 campaign, are also threats to Rosin’s chances of making the team.

The bigger issue for Rosin is his status as a Rule 5 draftee. If he doesn’t remain on the Dodgers’ 25-man roster all season, Los Angeles must place Rosin on waivers before offering him back to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Rosin may have sealed his own fate with a tough outing on Thursday. He surrendered five hits and two earned runs in a three-inning appearance versus the Cincinnati Reds.

Despite the recent performance, Rosin has been one of the few standouts for the Dodgers this spring. If he is squeezed out of the picture in Los Angeles, there is little question that Rosin can help a major league club in 2014.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

During the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ amazing 62-28 run to finish the 2013 regular season, it’s no surprise that the team’s top two starting pitchers—Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu—completely dominated. 

The eventual Cy Young award winner, Kershaw went 11-4 with a 1.61 ERA in 17 starts while holding opposing hitters to a .503 OPS. Greinke went 12-2 in 19 starts while holding opposing hitters to a .589 OPS.

No. 3 starter Hyun-jin Ryu, who finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig and Shelby Miller, was also very good, as you can imagine. The 26-year-old lefty won eight of his 13 decisions while posting a 3.04 ERA in his 16 starts during that stretch. 

What might be a surprise, though, is how much production the Dodgers got out of the last two spots in the rotation and the pitchers that gave it to them. And if you weren’t paying close enough attention, you may be surprised to know that three-time All-Star Josh Beckett did not make one start during the team’s run. 

It was Ricky Nolasco, Chris Capuano and Edinson Volquez who carried the load at the back of the rotation, while Beckett and Chad Billingsley watched from the sidelines with injuries that ended their respective seasons well before the Dodgers had gotten their act together. 

After being acquired from the Miami Marlins in early July, Nolasco proceeded to go on what was likely his best streak of pitching ever. In his first 12 starts as a Dodger, he went 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA before struggling badly in his last three starts. 

Capuano may have been the weak link, posting a 4.29 ERA in 12 starts from June 23 through August 31 and winning only two games. But he kept his team in the game and gave them a chance to win in a majority of his starts, resulting in nine team victories. 

And while the division had already been wrapped by the time he was inserted into the rotation, Volquez gave the Dodgers four solid starts in September after he had been signed off the scrap heap following his release from the San Diego Padres. 

So with Capuano, Nolasco and Volquez all signing free-agent deals elsewhere this offseason, the Dodgers will turn to Dan Haren, who signed a one-year, $10 million deal to fill one spot, and, if healthy, Beckett, who would step into the final spot. 

The 33-year-old Beckett was acquired in the blockbuster deal with the Boston Red Sox in August 2012, although he was more of a throw-in to a deal that included hitting star Adrian Gonzalez.

To acquire the big prize in Gonzalez, the Dodgers had to take on the disappointing Carl Crawford and his massive contract and Beckett, who was still owed well over $30 million and struggling to the tune of a 5.23 ERA in 21 starts. 

Still, his strong finish after the trade (2.93 ERA, 43 IP, 43 H, 14 BB, 38 K in seven starts) gave the Dodgers hope that they’d get a strong return on his $15.75 million salary for 2013.

That wasn’t the case, however, as he was knocked around, allowing two homers in four of his first five starts and posting an overall 5.19 ERA by the time he was placed on the disabled list with a strained groin after this eighth start of the season. 

A much bigger issue had also surfaced, however, as Beckett was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, which had been causing numbness in his pitching hand. He underwent surgery in July to remove his top rib to relieve pressure on a compressed nerve, leaving his status for 2014 in doubt. 

While the Dodgers’ reported pursuit of Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka this offseason indicated that they weren’t too interested in relying on Beckett to come back healthy and productive—the addition of Tanaka would’ve likely pushed Beckett out of the starting rotation mix altogether—they opted to sign Paul Maholm as a relatively inexpensive backup plan, keeping the door open for the former Marlins and Red Sox ace to win a rotation spot. 

The addition of Haren should help, especially if the Dodgers get the second-half-of-2013 version of him (3.52 ERA), as opposed to the one who struggled mightily to start his Washington Nationals career (6.15 ERA in first 15 starts of 2013). But it’s Beckett who could prove to be the X-factor in this Dodgers team living up to expectations and dominating throughout the 2014 season.

If his first start of the spring was any indication—he allowed just one ground-ball single over two shutout innings while striking out three and showing strong command of his fastball and breaking pitches—he’s well on his way to playing a key role in the Dodgers’ season. 

Beckett believes that his injury led to some bad habits, including a drop in his arm slot over the past couple of seasons. After studying video from his successful 2007-2009 seasons with the Red Sox, he picked up on the difference and is returning to his over-the-top delivery in 2014. 

“You certainly create some bad habits,” Beckett said. “I think I slowly started to creep down further and further, not knowing what the injury was.”

Those aforementioned 2007-2009 seasons, in case you’re wondering, resulted in a 49-23 record, 3.71 ERA, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 89 starts in a very tough AL East. The Sox made the playoffs in each of those seasons, and Beckett’s impact was great. 

On his way to winning the ALCS MVP in 2007, Beckett went 4-0 while allowing just four earned runs in 30 innings pitched with two walks and 35 strikeouts over four playoff starts as the Sox won the World Series for the second time in four seasons.

He wasn’t nearly as effective in the 2008 and 2009 playoffs, although his reputation from winning the World Series MVP in 2003 while with the Florida Marlins and his brilliant performance in 2007 had already been earned. 

Beckett is entering his age-34 season, so it’s difficult to expect a similar performance from his ages 27-29 seasons.

But a return to health and better command combined with his big-game experience and what still appears to be a good enough fastball—it averaged 92 MPH in his eight starts last season, according to FanGraphs, which was 0.6 MPH higher than in 2012 and only 1.1 MPH less than in 2011, when he had one of his best seasons—could result in the Dodgers having one of the best No. 5 starters in baseball, which could separate them from the pack much sooner than in 2013.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers have big plans for Yasiel Puig in 2014, but some of the headlines he has been making may be cause for concern for his role with the team.

The typical criticisms of his off-field behavior and “non-traditional” playing style are generally unwarranted and not of any real concern.

The Dodgers’ real issues with Puig should lie in his physical readiness to take on a leadoff and leadership role with the team.

According to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly wants Puig in the leadoff role, as opposed to Carl Crawford, for his dynamic skill set and better righty-lefty balance at the top of the lineup.

The Dodgers have strong left-handed batters in Crawford, Adrian Gonzales and Andre Ethier, part of what makes their lineup such a potent one.

In this video, courtesy of MLB.com, Mattingly further explains that Puig hasn’t proven to be a capable RBI guy quite yet, but could benefit from the extra at-bats the leadoff spot would afford him.

When Puig showed up to camp 26 pounds heavier than last season, Mattingly told Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com, “We don’t feel it’s going to be a problem, but we’re paying attention to it, put it that way.”

The platonic ideal of a leadoff hitter is someone who is a difficult out, and can move well along the basepaths. By these metrics, Puig is definitely the Dodgers’ best option as a leadoff hitter, especially when compared to the other options the Dodgers have on the team.

Crawford is the best option other than Puig, but his career OBP of .332 leaves much to be desired. The lightning quick Gordon and veteran utilityman Chone Figgins fit the mold, but neither player seems capable of hitting at a major league level right now.

Matt Kemp, when healthy, is definitely athletic enough but his proven RBI ability would make him a waste at the top of the batting order.

There is also the mysterious second baseman Alex Guerrero, but the newest Cuban addition to the roster is transitioning directly to the majors from a foreign league, a tough task for any player.

Puig’s weight could be an issue when it comes to running the basepaths, certainly part of his dynamic skill set, as he was able to make up for some questionable decisions to steal with his remarkable speed. 

However, he was still caught stealing eight times last season, which goes against the mantra of creating outs at the top of the lineup.

The other concern about Puig, which is compounded by the fluctuation in his weight, will be his ability to stay on the field.

Puig has suffered from some shoulder soreness as well as back inflammation so far this spring. Outside of Hanley Ramirez, Puig is the player the Dodgers can least afford to succumb to nagging injuries. Neither Crawford nor Kemp are safe bets to stay healthy for an entire year, and a hobbled outfield would certainly hurt the Dodgers in a meaningful way 

Mattingly, taking things in stride as usual, seemed almost resigned by the prospect of Puig’s nagging injuries, via Kevin Baxter of the Los Angles Times: 

“I try never to figure out Yasiel,” said Mattingly, who added that Puig seemed to be having trouble swinging the bat Wednesday. “I just go with what the trainer tells me. We move forward.”

Puig is hitting just .231 so far in the Cactus League, not a good sign for a potential leadoff hitter. But the Wild Horse himself isn’t worried that the numbers don’t measure up to the phenomenal ones he put up last season. Via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

“I’m having good at-bats. Pitchers are just making good pitches,” Puig said. “I know people want me to be getting more hits and I want to get more hits to help my team. But I’m working hard to get prepared for the season.”

The Dodgers staff will hope that the batting average picks up and isn’t due to his weight or back pain issues.

Despite the worries, Puig has continued to display some excellent progress in certain areas of his game. He recently made a great throw to help nab fellow phenom Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, who was angling for an inside the park home run.

Some could argue that Puig would have made that catch last season, but the misjudgment is probably due more to his unfamiliarity with centerfield—just six starts last season there—than with any diminished athleticism.

Not to mention, Puig did a great job of firing a throw to his cutoff man, Ramirez, a baseball fundamental he became notorious for missing last season.

There is always time to prove the doubters wrong, and Yasiel Puig has the freakish potential to obliterate any argument against him.

The Dodgers will be monitoring him closely, as their plans to make it to the top of the league start with Puig being effective at the top of the order.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers entered spring training on the short list of World Series favorites following a 92-win campaign and a trip to the National League Championship Series in 2013. Last year’s success has led to heightened expectations for the 2014 MLB season. However, there’s already cause for concern coming out of the Dodgers camp in Glendale, Ariz.

Here are five storylines from the first two weeks of spring training that Dodgers fans should pay close attention to.

Begin Slideshow

Hyun-Jin Ryu emerged as one of the top rookie pitchers in the National League in 2013, serving as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ third starter for the entire season and making all but one scheduled start. 

Signed to a six-year, $36 million contract prior to the 2013 season after an impressive tenure in the Korean Baseball Organization, Ryu led all qualified NL rookies with 192 innings pitched, ranked second in wins (14), third in ERA (3.00) and fourth in strikeouts (154).

The left-hander also proved he could handle the pressure of the postseason, tossing seven scoreless innings in a win over the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 3 of the NLCS, with the Dodgers down 2-0 in the best-of-seven series.

However, as the 27-year-old embarks on his second season in the major leagues, he’ll be expected to build off his impressive rookie campaign and help the Dodgers return to the postseason.

With any player coming off an impressive rookie season, a big deal is made about his capacity for improvement in context of the dreaded sophomore slump. After a full season in the major leagues, opposing teams generally have excess scouting reports at their disposal and therefore are knowledgeable of a player’s specific tendencies in all facets of the game.

While Ryu may not post the same eye-catching numbers he did last year as a rookie, the left-hander shouldn’t fall victim to a sophomore slump in 2014.

Best Shape of His Life?

Ryu was the first to admit that he was “unprepared” entering his rookie campaign, as he spent a majority of last offseason dealing with contract negotiations before signing in early December with the Dodgers. 

This year, however, the southpaw has a better idea of what to expect in spring training, and more importantly, what it requires physically to survive a full season in the major leagues.

Speaking with Ken Gurnick of MLB.com earlier this month, Ryu stated “last year was trying with the contract, and I didn’t get a head start. I’ve had more time to prepare this year.”

“My teammates definitely push me. At the end of the day, you have to do it yourself. I just try to be in the best shape I can. I’m an athlete; it’s my job to be in the best condition,” he added.

Besides missing one start due in early September due to back stiffness, Ryu didn’t show any obvious signs of fatigue last season, such as a declining release point or dip in velocity. So if he’s actually in better shape this year as he claims—don’t expect it to show physically—the left-hander should be more prepared for the rigors of a full season.

Against Righties 

Ryu fared well against right-handed hitters last season, registering a .245 opponents’ batting average and 1.45 ground-ball rate with a 117-35 strikeout-to-walk rate in 145.1 innings. A look at the left-hander’s pitch-specific splits reveals his overall effectiveness was directly tied to his fastball and changeup usage. When Ryu was hit hard, it was usually on a curveball or slider.

Simply put: Right-handed batters feasted on Ryu’s breaking balls last season, consistently driving both pitches when they were located in the lower-two-thirds of the strike zone, and even those off the outside corner: 

The above zone profile would suggest that right-handed batters were able to recognize Ryu’s curveball and slider out of his hand, tracking the break into the strike zone and putting a good swing on the ball.

As a result, Ryu primarily used his fastball-changeup combination last season against righties. Actually, he would have struggled even more if not for the season-long effectiveness of his changeup, as he used the pitch to hold right-handed batters to a .165 batting average on the year.

Assuming that opposing hitters look for his changeup more often in 2014, Ryu has the potential to take a step forward with improved execution and sequencing of both breaking pitches. He had success last year with both offerings when working over the plate but still below the strike zone, so it’ll be interesting to see if he attacks hitters there more aggressively in the coming season.   

2014 Projections 

Now that we’ve examined a few reasons why Ryu will avoid a sophomore slump, it’s time to take a look at what the major projection models (ZIPS, Steamer and Oliver) predict for his 2014 season:  

Ryu’s BABIP and FIP suggest that the left-hander wasn’t necessarily the beneficiary of luck last season, though some of that might have been negated by his high strand rate.

The combination of Ryu’s strong command and lack of a universal swing-and-miss offering has made the left-hander adept at escaping jams. Last season he logged a total of 42 innings with runners in scoring position, holding opposing hitters to a .228 batting average in those situations while posting a strand rate of 78.2 percent.

Each of the projection models believes Ryu’s strand rate will normalize in 2014, though it shouldn’t adversely impact his ERA and FIP in the long run. They also project he’ll post strikeout and walk rates similar to the ones he did last year as a rookie (7.22 K/9, 2.30 BB/9).

The one outlier across the three models is the ZIPS projection for Ryu’s home run rate (1.18 HR/9) next season, which is considerably higher than the Oliver (0.77) and Steamer (0.72) forecasts. However, that trend seemingly is taken into consideration, as ZIPS also calls for him to post a 3.65 ERA and 3.93 FIP—his highest projected totals for each category.

If Ryu can stay healthy and the projection models prove to be mostly accurate, then the 27-year-old should be a similar pitcher to what he showed in 2013. And though his improvements might be minimal, there’s nothing to suggest Ryu is in store for a regression next season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The mystery of Yasiel Puig was revealed after he burst onto the big league scene in early June and helped carry the Los Angeles Dodgers to an unbelievable run from worst to first in the NL West and all the way to the National League Championship Series. 

Puig‘s seven-year, $42 million deal in June 2012 almost seemed like an afterthought after all of the offseason buzz surrounding fellow Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who signed a four-year, $36 million deal less than five months earlier. Two years later, it’s the 23-year-old Puig who has stolen all of the spotlight. 

Despite five months of Puig becoming an overnight sensation and a household name last year, it’s hard to know what to expect in 2014.

Baseball is a game of ups and downs. There are huge injury risks involved, and players rarely make it through a 162-game season at full health. In addition, constant adjustments need to be made as opponents discover weaknesses. 

While the game appeared almost too easy for Puig during his rookie season, it’s hard to know how he’ll play when he has to deal with minor injuries or how he’ll adjust to the strategies of opposing pitchers or whether he can stay out of trouble off the field. 

Here are 10 predictions for Puig‘s sophomore MLB season.

Begin Slideshow

As great as Yasiel  Puig was during his rookie season in 2013, there are plenty of reasons for the Los Angeles Dodgers to be concerned as he heads into his sophomore season. 

For one, it’s still unknown how well the 23-year-old will be able to adjust to teams who will be trying to exploit weaknesses he revealed last season. His relative anonymity made it difficult for opponents to game-plan around him once he made the jump from Double-A to the majors last June. By season’s end, though, it appeared that they had started to figure him out—he hit just .205 over his last 27 regular-season games and also struggled in the NLCS. 

A second arrest for reckless driving in December—his first was back in April while he was playing in Double-A—also exposes his lack of maturity. In a team statement issued shortly afterward, the Dodgers said that Puig‘s behavior “is a very serious issue” to them. 

And now, a 26-pound weight gain from the end of the regular season, according to Mark Saxon of ESPN.com, is yet another reason for manager Don Mattingly to question whether his young outfielder is ready to take the next step into major league superstardom. 

“We don’t feel it’s going to be a problem, but we’re paying attention to it, put it that way,” Mattingly told ESPN Los Angeles.

Mattingly might not make a big deal about it to the media, but he understands how important Puig is to the team’s success and the extremely high expectations that will follow his MVP-caliber performance from 2013.

At 251 pounds, Puig is only 16 pounds heavier than he was last spring when he reported to camp at a muscular 235 pounds. A young kid like Puig will probably bounce back in no time with some help from the trainers. But for such a young kid to unintentionally put on 25 pounds in such a short period of time—people aren’t raving about his linebacker-esque physique this time around—should be a big concern.

While several players with less-than-impressive physiques have had long and successful big league careers, Puig‘s lack of discipline and a possible lack of motivation could very well be an indication that he will struggle at times to stay at the top of his game throughout his career.

The ease at which his success came as a rookie could be making it difficult. As Dodgers legend Sandy Koufax recently pointed out to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times when discussing some of Puig‘s on-the-field issues, Puig is able to make up for mistakes because of his physical ability. 

“He’s young. The biggest thing is he’s not played against competition as good as he is. So you’re always able to have your physical ability make up for whatever else you do. “He’s learning. I’m sure it’s going to happen. He has too much talent.”

While Koufax was addressing Puig‘s theatrics on the field, his comments could easily be redirected to Puig‘s offseason and why he wasn’t motivated to keep his weight in check.  

Is it a case of too much success too early? At this time next year or maybe even a few years down the road, will we be discussing how Puig has learned from his mistakes and is now in the best shape of his career after slacking off in the past?

As much as Dodgers fans don’t want to hear this, a really bad season could be the best thing for Puig and his career as opposed to one that might not be as good as last year but also isn’t a complete disaster.

For Puig to reach his full potential and become a player who is consistently great, he’ll need to work hard. For Puig to work hard, he needs to be motivated. For Puig to be motivated, he might need to be really bad at hitting a baseball after an offseason in which he spent driving recklessly—at least once—and gaining 26 pounds. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Spring training is finally upon us! The Los Angeles Dodgers have reported to camp, and baseball is underway. The Dodgers head into March with several legitimate questions that they must figure out, as well as a couple issues that they must monitor.

Many of these questions are health-related. The lineup is likely set, and in an ideal world, the Dodgers would probably know all but one or two spots of their Opening Day roster at this point.

But it is not an ideal world. Instead, people like Matt Kemp and Josh Beckett exist, so therefore uncertainty exists.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Begin Slideshow