Kuzul

Game 1 of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals is going into the vault as another chapter in the book of legendary things done in October by the great Carlos Beltran.

Game 1 of the NLCS saw Beltran do that thing he has a tendency to do in the postseason. The perennial playoff hero hit a two-run double in the third inning that knotted the score at 2-2, and it was his single down the right field line in the 13th inning that scored Daniel Descalso and allowed the Cardinals to walk off with a 3-2 victory.

But if you missed it, don’t make the mistake of thinking that Beltran won Game 1 single-handedly. He was lent a helping hand on Friday night/Saturday morning at Busch Stadium.

And of all places, it came from the opposing dugout.

We could call the book’s latest chapter “Another Carlos Beltran Game,” but we might as well call it “The Don Mattingly Game.” For while the Cardinals owe their win to their veteran outfielder, the Dodgers owe their loss to their manager. 

The third-year skipper made a series of mistakes throughout the proceedings that cost the Dodgers dearly in the end. And since the night’s performance was hardly a first for Mattingly, the writing is on the wall in big, bold letters: If the Dodgers are going to win the World Series, they need Don Mattingly to stop doing Don Mattingly things.

For them to be the best, he needs to get better.

OK, let’s get our bearings here. I used the ol‘ “if you missed it” line back there just as a convenient transition, but maybe you really did miss it and you have no idea what the heck is going on. Maybe you don’t know why Mattingly is lying under that bus over there.

Well, let’s see. I suppose the madness started in the eighth inning.

It was a 2-2 game when Dodgers first baseman and cleanup man Adrian Gonzalez came to the plate with nobody out in the top of the eighth. He drew a leadoff walk against Carlos Martinez, and that’s when Mattingly made his first puzzling move. Rather than let Gonzalez run for himself, Mattingly inserted Dee Gordon as a pinch-runner.

A bold move indeed. Gordon’s undeniably fast, but he’s not a great base stealer, with a modest career success rate of 70 percent. Plus, there was Yadier Molina, arguably the greatest defensive catcher in history, behind the plate. Even putting in Billy Hamilton to run would have been a risky call.

And if it didn’t pay off, the Dodgers would have lost their cleanup hitter for nothing.

Sure enough, Mattingly didn’t call for Gordon to take off. He stood glued to first base until Yasiel Puig grounded a ball to Cardinals shortstop Pete Kozma, who easily erased Gordon at second base.

And that was it for him. Gordon was lifted from the game in favor of Michael Young, who was inserted in the cleanup spot and at first base. Mattingly had wasted his best speed weapon off the bench, and he ended up with a lesser fielder at first and a lesser hitter at cleanup as a result.

This naturally came back to bite the Dodgers. Twice.

The first time it bit the Dodgers was in the 10th inning. Mark Ellis hit a one-out triple that was followed by an intentional walk to Hanley Ramirez. Young then hit a fly ball to right field that Beltran caught and turned into an inning-ending double play with a strike to home that beat Ellis to the plate.

It’s hard to tell, even in the slow-motion replays, whether Molina actually tagged Ellis, but consider what that situation might have looked like if Mattingly hadn’t subbed Gordon for Gonzalez in the eighth. It would have been Gonzalez at the plate, and possibly Gordon at third base.

Gonzalez, a .293 hitter in the regular season, might have gotten a hit. Had he hit that same fly ball to Beltran instead, the speedy Gordon would have scored easily.

But wait, there’s more that went down in the 12th inning.

Batting against Lance Lynn, Carl Crawford led off the top of the inning with a single. Rather than let Ellis hit away, Mattingly called for him to sacrifice Crawford to second with a bunt.

The bunt was successful…and also not at the same time. What it did was open up first base for Ramirez, making it an easy call for the Cardinals to take his bat out of his hands with an intentional walk. That brought Young to the plate, and he grounded into an inning-ending double play.

Meanwhile, Mattingly was making a mistake in-between these mistakes by keeping Kenley Jansen confined to the bullpen, signalling that he was intent on only using him in a save situation.

This despite the fact Jansen held hitters to a lower OPS in non-save situations in 2013 than he did in save situations. And also despite the fact Jansen didn’t become the Dodgers “closer” until June.

What Mattingly was doing was prioritizing Jansen’s role over his actual pitching ability. As Matt Snyder of CBS Sports pointed out:

Jansen eventually made it into the game in the 13th inning, but not until after Chris Withrow had allowed a single to Descalso and a walk to Matt Carpenter to put the winning run in scoring position with maybe the greatest postseason hitter ever striding to the plate. 

Mattingly could have asked a much smaller favor of his best relief pitcher several innings earlier. He instead asked a huge favor, and Jansen couldn’t come through.

When it was all over, there was no quarter for Mattingly in the Twitterverse. Many took to trolling him, but it was Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated who said it best with this subtle barb:

This has to do with the aforementioned fact that Mattingly‘s night of mistakes wasn’t a first for him. Heck, it wasn’t even a first for him within the Dodgers’ last four games.

In the bottom of the seventh inning of Game 2 of the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves, Mattingly chose to make a pitching change rather than have Withrow face Jose Constanza, he of the .575 OPS over the last two seasons. Once Reed Johnson pinch-hit for Constanza, Mattingly chose to walk him intentionally to bring Jason Heyward to the plate instead.

This would be the same Jason Heyward who had a .932 OPS after the break. The same Jason Heyward who, seeing as how he posted a higher OPS against lefties than against righties, was not going to be afraid of facing the lefty-throwing Paco Rodriguez.

And ultimately, this would be the same Jason Heyward who clubbed a two-run single that gave the Braves a 4-1 lead. Rather than give a lead to the Dodgers, all Ramirez’s two-run homer in the next frame could do was cut into the Braves’ lead.

The Heyward blunder was a gaffe that actually happened, and then there was the gaffe that could have happened in Game 4. 

The Dodgers entered the eighth inning trailing 3-2 and with a golden opportunity ahead of them with David Carpenter on the mound for the Braves instead of the usually invincible Craig Kimbrel (derp, because he’s a closer, derp). When Puig led off with a double, the Dodgers were in business.

And then Mattingly asked Juan Uribe to bunt. He was willing to trust a guy with only three sacrifices all season to not screw this one up. On top of that, he was willing to give the Braves a free out even though there was already a runner in scoring position, and a speedy one at that.

Fortunately, Uribe wasn’t able to get a bunt down. Instead, he hit a two-run homer that gave the Dodgers a 4-3 lead they wouldn’t relinquish. Via Amanda Rykoff, the irony of the moment was not lost on longtime Dodgers broadcaster/bard Vin Scully:

There’s an alternate universe out there in which Uribe’s bunt is successful. Within that same universe, maybe that free out bites the Dodgers, who fail to score and then go down against Kimbrel in the ninth. 

And in that scenario, of course, the Dodgers would have burned a start by Clayton Kershaw on short rest for a loss that sent the series back to Atlanta for Game 5. The questions, second-guesses and outrage would have come down on Mattingly like a ton of bricks.

You know, sort of like they are now. As well they should be.

There have been worse managers than Mattingly. Heck, there are worse managers than Mattingly. It’s easy enough to realize that once you remember that Bobby Valentine is still out there somewhere.

Exactly what sort of value Mattingly brings to the Dodgers, however, is unclear. 

It’s easy to credit Mattingly with keeping his house in order when it could easily have fallen apart when it was being written as early as May that his job was hanging by a thread.

The team started playing good baseball soon after, sure, but that good baseball just so happened to coincide with the arrival of Puig and Ramirez finally getting healthy. In early July, Zack Greinke turned on the jets. Then, Ricky Nolasco arrived and was terrific for a dozen starts.

If the question is how much of the Dodgers’ success this season is due to their talent and how much of it to Mattingly‘s leadership, you have to side with the former to a staggering degree. With that payroll and that roster, it’s not like the Dodgers overachieved under Mattingly.

The debate over Mattingly‘s actual value to the Dodgers could have been had before the postseason even began. But regardless of the exact number of skeptics he had out there, October was going to be Mattingly‘s chance to shut them up by managing the heck out of his ballclub. If ever there was a time for Mattingly to be confirmed as a “great manager with great talent” rather than as a “manager with great talent,” it’s going on right now.

And so far, he’s been a huge disappointment.

Mattingly could have cost the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLDS. He did cost the Dodgers in Game 2 of that series. Likewise, he did cost the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS. That’s three games out of five that have Mattingly‘s fingerprints on them, and not in a good way.

Mattingly can’t keep this up. Not at this rate. Not against a Cardinals team that is miles more legit than the Braves ever were—Atlanta tied for last in strength of schedule this season. Not in a setting where one game carries the weight of dozens. 

It’s on Mattingly to do his utmost to make sure that weight doesn’t come crashing down. If he doesn’t, the Dodgers are invariably going to find themselves falling short of the World Series. 

And that’s when the Dodgers could well decide that new leadership is needed.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Back in August, I wrote about how a healthy Matt Kemp would be the final piece to the Dodgers‘ World Series run. And when he finally returned in mid-September with 11 hits in his first 28 at-bats, including three doubles and a homer, that final piece to an already strong team appeared to have arrived. 

But it wasn’t meant to be. A recurring ankle injury forced the 29-year-old out of action for the remainder of the season and playoffs.

It hasn’t slowed the Dodgers, though, who knocked out the Braves in four NLDS games and will head to the NLCS as favorites over the Pirates or Cardinals.

Should we be surprised? I had them winning the division in my preseason NL West preview, and so did many others. But they looked like anything but contenders after a June 21 loss to the Padres, which dropped their record to 30-42.

They were in last place and 9.5 games back of the division-leading Diamondbacks. Nearly four months later, they’ve gone 65-29 and are eight wins away from a championship.

So, how did they go from cellar-dwellers with a manager and general manager on the hot seat to World Series favorites?

As easy as it is to point to rookie Yasiel Puig’s call-up, it’s been so much more than that. While Puig may have been the necessary spark, the Dodgers have gotten to this point with an all-around team effort.

Here’s a look at the five keys that have the Dodgers closing in on their first World Series title since 1988. 

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Clayton Kershaw might be the second-coming of Los Angeles Dodgers legend Sandy Koufax, but a lovable holy trinity in Chavez Ravine these days centers on one of Major League Baseball’s more unsung heroes: Juan Uribe.

The trio of Uribe, Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig has been a signature, heartwarming segment of the Dodgers clubhouse, season and success and it was on full display Monday night.

Uribe, who has been a member of the Dodgers since signing a three-year deal in 2011, found success in Los Angeles this season because of failure last season—Luis Cruz took over Uribe’s starting job at third base, but failed to secure the role.

After batting just .204 in his first season and .191 in 2012, Uribe discovered success on Monday night because of failure yet again—this time, his own. He could not get down a sacrifice bunt in the bottom of the eighth inning.

With the Dodgers down 3-2—and with the Atlanta Braves six outs from taking the NLDS back home for Game 5—Yasiel Puig led off the inning with a double. But two miserable bunt attempts later, there was not a good word on Uribe to come by. It looked as though he spoiled a chance to advance the tying run and would become the menace of Game 4.

Then came a greater failure, as Braves reliever David Carpenter was unable to bury a slider into the lower half of the strike zone.

Instead of sacrificing himself in the at-bat, Uribe uncorked an uppercut hammer on the pitch that hung around the letters. He dropped his bat as a towering go-ahead, and series-clinching, home run shot through the Los Angeles night and fell into the left-field bullpen.

While the sea of Dodger Nation jumped up and down and rattled the ballpark, Uribe electrically embraced his mentee, Puig, at home plate. Then, the duo retreated to the top of the dugout steps, where Uribe exchanged a four-limb, bumping handshake with their third brother, Hanley Ramirez.

Baseball clubhouses are undoubtedly regarded as the most fraternal of locker rooms in professional sports. The fact that players must coexist for at least 162 games, from spring training until October, breeds a certain unique dynamic for each ballclub. It seeps its way into a team’s ability to cope with defeat, to pick each other up, to come from behind, to celebrate and, above all, to define itself. 

In 2013, the Dodgers have come to regard Uribe as the supreme representative of their clubhouse. General manager Ned Colletti has said of the 34-year-old Dominican, “I don’t think there’s a more beloved player or person in this room than Juan Uribe.” Matt Kemp declared, “He’s the best teammate I’ve ever played with.”

Don Mattingly told ESPN in early September of Uribe’s reputation and his ability to weather the storm after losing his starting job in 2012:

The one thing about Juan: He always, always, always played quality third base…The thing that opened our eyes was how good a teammate he was last year. Luis [Cruz] was here tearing it up and the darling of L.A. last year for a period of time, and Juan was a really good teammate. He gained a lot of respect in that clubhouse.

Although respect is often transmitted through reverence for an esteemed teammate, it is just as likely to be translated through comfortable humor with a beloved player; one who feels more like family.

This comical display has been exhibited by 22-year-old sensation Puig and 29-year-old Ramirez since the summer when the brotherly relationship began to take off. Ramirez began referring to the barrel-chested, power-hitting Uribe as “King Kong,” and he and Puig began customarily feeding the older third baseman bananas after home runs.

Throughout the season, Ramirez, who plays next door at shortstop, could even be caught clowning Uribe for his lack of range literally in the middle of an inning. 

There is a youthful exuberance in the trio’s dugout celebrations—the younger brothers-of-sorts jumping on the shoulders of the veteran Uribe as he cracks a smile. It is hard to ignore and it is part of the heart of the Dodger demeanor.

As Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles explains of the relationship and the clowning: Puig and Ramirez view Uribe as “[A] man they embrace practically as an older brother. What little brother doesn’t live for that opportunity?” But Saxon clarifies, “If it seems as if Uribe is the team clown, though, he’s quite a bit more than that. In some ways, he’s the conscience of the clubhouse…”

After Monday’s victory, Ramirez properly told Sports Illustrated that Uribe’s heroics were no surprise. “It’s the postseason,” he remarked. “That’s what we expect.” 

So for a moment, forget Magic Johnson, Vin Scully and Don Mattingly. Forget the unimaginable 48-of-50 games the Dodgers blazed through and the often-untouchable pitching staff headlined by Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

Forget them for just one moment because, for much longer, many had nearly forgotten about Uribe. He even admitted how the anxiety had begun to set in with his prolonged lack of performance.

“I felt bad when I didn’t play good,” Uribe told ESPN on Monday, reflecting on his unsuccessful first two seasons in Los Angeles. “Sometimes when you don’t play good, people don’t remember you. People forget. That’s just the way the game is.”

He has unquestionably improved this year with the help of hitting coach Mark McGwire and, on Monday, he definitely transformed Mattingly’s game plan when he fouled off two consecutive sacrifice bunt attempts. But, Uribe has never changed himself or his character.

About a month ago, following a three-homer performance against Arizona, Uribe said, “I always wanted to be a person who has respect and shows that I care and have a good heart.” He went on, “Good or bad, you still have to be the same person.”

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves are now tied at a game apiece for the National League Division Series title. Matt Kemp watched both games from the bench and will likely do the same for the entirety of the Dodgers’ 2013 playoff run.

Fortunately for Dodgers fans, the absence of Kemp may not be all that big of a deal. Sure, you’re missing a guy who threatens 40-40 numbers when healthy, but looking back on the year, the Dodgers have done fine without him.

Here, we’ll count down the nine major factors that show why Kemp’s injury does not mean a shortened Dodger postseason.

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One of the greatest regular-season pitching performances in recent memory has come to a close.

Ace lefty Clayton Kershaw fired six innings of shutout ball against the Colorado Rockies on Friday night to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to an easy 11-0 win. He allowed four hits and no walks with eight strikeouts. Factoring these numbers in, his final regular-season numbers look like this: 33 starts, 236.0 innings, 232 strikeouts, 52 walks, .195 BAA and a 1.83 ERA.

He’s the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 2005 to finish with an ERA under 2.00, and he’s only the 11th since 1981 to do so.

A season for the books if there ever was one, but it’s not over quite yet. If Kershaw wants to make his season one for the ages, there’s one dragon left for him to slay: October.

The Dodgers are rolling into the postseason with weapons galore, from Hanley Ramirez to Yasiel Puig to Adrian Gonzalez to Carl Crawford to Zack Greinke to Kenley Jansen and to what might be a reinvigorated Matt Kemp. No opposing players look at names like these and have an easy feeling.

But Kershaw? He’s the guy. His golden left arm could be an automatic win machine for the Dodgers in October. Put enough of those in the bag, and the Dodgers may soon be celebrating their first World Series victory since 1988.

And try as I might, I couldn’t come up with any good reasons for why Kershaw might not be up to it. 

It crossed my mind for, oh, maybe two-and-a-half seconds to make something of Kershaw’s postseason track record. He pitched in October in 2008 and 2009, posting a 5.87 ERA in five appearances. Hardly the sort of performance befitting of an ace!

But yeah. Two problems. One is the ol’ small sample size thing, as Kershaw compiled that 5.87 ERA in five appearances that spanned only 15.1 innings. Three of those five appearances came in relief. 

Then there’s the second problem with daring to make anything of Kershaw’s postseason track record: It was made at a time when Clayton Kershaw wasn’t yet Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw was 20 years old in 2008 and 21 in 2009. He was a real-life answer to Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn both years, walking 4.3 batters per nine in ’08 and 4.8 batters per nine in ’09. The latter was a largely successful season due to Kershaw’s keen abilities to miss bats and limit hits, but stressful times were always just around the corner when he was on the hill.

In the past four seasons, Kershaw owns a mere 2.5 BB/9. He’s effectively cut his old walk habit in half, which my basic knowledge of baseball tells me is a “positive” trend.

It must also be noted that Kershaw was still getting to know a good friend of his the last time he pitched in the postseason.

As Grantland’s Jonah Keri told the tale, it wasn’t until June of 2009 that Kershaw started using a slider in games. His use of his slider has ballooned in the four years since, and I’d wager it’s a pitch that’s now just as feared as his curveball. Per Brooks Baseball, hitters own just a .152 average against Kershaw’s slider since the start of the 2010 season.

There’s another part of that Keri story that stands out, and it has to do with Kershaw’s, shall we say, intensity. The key bits read:

Talk to Ellis, other Dodgers teammates, beat writers, and everyone else around the team, and they’ll all describe Kershaw as pathologically determined to win.

[Snip]

In his mind, it makes sense to be a beloved, happy-go-lucky teammate four days out of five, only to bite teammates’ heads off on days when he’s starting if they bring up anything — movies, dinner plans, anything — that doesn’t relate to that night’s start.

Let’s go ahead and draw up a list of qualities you want in a guy who’s poised to lead your pitching staff in a quest for a World Series title. The idea guy would:

• Not be prone to getting himself in trouble.
• Have an arsenal of overpowering stuff.
• Have a burning desire to smite everything and everyone in his path.

So basically, Clayton Kershaw. Maybe he had the intensity before back in 2008 and 2009, but he didn’t have a complete arsenal yet, and he certainly didn’t have the ability to keep himself out of trouble by keeping his wildness in check. He wasn’t well-equipped for postseason duty. He is now.

With this avenue sealed off, I had to resort to turning my game of “Find Reasons to Doubt Clayton Kershaw” into a matter of nitpickery. Sure, he ended the season on a high note with his performance against the Rockies, but maybe he’s developed a weakness in recent days/weeks/months that could bite him in October. There’s gotta be something, right?

I’ll spare you from having to take a wild guess: Not really, no.

The first thing I did was draw Kershaw’s monthly splits on FanGraphs and focus on the top indicators of pitching quality. You know, things like strikeouts, walks, ground balls and home runs. All things that a pitcher can influence to some degree or another.

Here are those key numbers by month for Kershaw, with FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and ERA thrown in for good measure.

One thing that stands out is that Kershaw has been better in every category except for HR/FB rate in the second half of the season. And while his ERA for September is not his best, it’s also not his worst. September was also one of his best months for FIP, and he did just fine in the strikeout and walk departments.

With yet another avenue to doubt Kershaw sealed off, I said to myself, “OK, well, maybe his stuff has lost something. Maybe he’s not packing the same ammunition that he was packing earlier in the year.”

Um, no.

I went to Brooks Baseball and checked out Kershaw’s velocity numbers. Then I made another table:

Throughout the season, there’s been very little fluctuation in the speed of any of Kershaw’s pitches. On the contrary, he’s gained velocity. He’s been throwing harder in September than he was in April, and he’s been throwing harder in the second half than he was in the first half. He’s set a new career high for innings this season, but his arm wouldn’t appear to be losing any of its strength.

This would be yet another avenue to doubt Kershaw sealed off. So I then said to myself, “OK, so his arm is fine, but is his stuff fooling hitters as effectively as it has been all season?”

Here’s where, somewhat relieved, I finally found a nit to pick.

Momentarily, anyway.

What I wanted to do was see if any of Kershaw’s pitches have been finding bats more often in recent days. For that, I went to Brooks Baseball and dug up some whiff/swing numbers.

We didn’t see a whole lot of fluctuation in the other two tables. Here, we see all sorts of fluctuation, but only one red flag. Do you see it? 

It’s the whiff/swing rate on Kershaw’s slider this month. The lowest it had dropped before September was into the mid-30s. It’s been in the mid-20s this month, and the extra bats finding it have done some damage.

Before September, opponents hit .176 against Kershaw’s slider with a .114 ISO (Isolated Power) and four home runs. In September, opponents have hit .333 against it with a .292 ISO and two home runs. Before September, the horizontal movement on Kershaw’s slider was well over three inches. In September, it’s been under three inches.

…And it’s all thanks to a couple of bad games.

Here’s some September slider info:

Against the Rockies and Reds, Kershaw had a flat slider, and it wasn’t fooling anyone. Against the Giants and Padres, his slider was less flat and fooled a few more hitters. If it was the other way around—i.e., if Kershaw’s slider was getting flatter rather than sharper—there’d be a reason to worry. But, well, that’s not the way it is.

Another thing worth noting: Both of the homers hit off Kershaw’s slider this month were by the same guy several innings apart. Jay Bruce did the honors, first on a flat slider down in the lefty hitter’s happy zone, and again on another flat slider that was right over the heart of the plate.

Yet another thing worth noting: Kershaw’s slider continued to look good against the Rockies. Brooks Baseball) has the average horizontal movement of Kershaw’s slider on Friday night at 3.53 inches. That’s the best horizontal movement on it he’s had all month, and it’s even better than his season average of 3.34 inches.

Here’s where I abandoned my search for reasons to doubt Kershaw. I didn’t see everything, but I figured I’d seen enough.

What I knew at the beginning was that Kershaw had just put together one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. What I then figured was that he’s much more cut out to excel in October than he was the last time he dipped his toes in. And outside of a brief lapse with one of his key pitches earlier this month, it’s scary how much of a model of consistency Kershaw has been over the past six months.

He ought to be able to keep doing his thing for one more month. If the Dodgers fail to win the World Series this year, something tells me it won’t be because of their ace.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Friday night’s scolding of the Colorado Rockies marked the end of Clayton Kershaw‘s 2013 regular season. The southpaw has now completed six sensational years at the major league level, and over the past half-century, few other pitchers have realized comparable success at such a young age.

Not yet 26 years old, the All-Star left-hander has led the National League in earned run average for three consecutive summers. According to FanGraphs, he also boasts the lowest earned run average in the majors since debuting in 2008 (min. 400 IP). His 1.83 ERA this year is the best posted by any qualified starter since Pedro Martinez in 2000.

We’ll look at how Kershaw‘s first half-dozen MLB campaigns stack up against those of all others who have debuted since 1964. More specifically, we’re intrigued by those who reached the The Show early—Kershaw was called up to the Los Angeles Dodgers as a 20-year-old—and quickly proved themselves to be both dominant and durable.

Identifying Legitimate Challengers

Let’s begin with a list that includes all pitchers of the past 50 years who amassed at least 1,000 innings through their age-25 campaigns. Check it out on either the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index or FanGraphs (whichever color scheme is easier on your eyes).

There are only 44 names, including a handful of Hall of Famers and a few strong candidates for future induction, as well as plenty of former stars who couldn’t make the necessary adjustments as they matured.

Using either source of Wins Above Replacement, Kershaw cracks the top 10. He’s just as impressive in terms of adjusted earned run average, batting average against, OPS against, quality start percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Indeed, it’s at least worth discussing whether or not the start of his career is the best of these past several generations.

The following pitchers contended with Kershaw for the top spot in all of the aforementioned categories, and therefore received serious consideration: Bert Blyleven, Roger Clemens, Doc Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Seaver and Fernando Valenzuela.

(Sam McDowell was on par with those guys from 1964 to 1968, but actually debuted back in 1961. He struggled during his first couple of seasons and never really solved his command issues.)

Kershaw Isn’t No. 1

Sorry for spoiling the suspense, but Kershaw frankly doesn’t belong in the same sentence as the young versions of Blyleven or Seaver.

Here’s a comparison of their rookie campaigns. Keep in mind that for IP, ERA+ and K/BB, higher is better:

Blyleven was actually the youngest player in the entire American League during his debut season. Thanks to that early call-up, he has posted by far the highest 25-and-under career WAR of any pitcher over the past 50 years.

Breaking through in the 1970s deprived Blyleven of the major award recognition that he sorely deserved. Sportswriters overlooked him because of a pedestrian win-loss record. He was 108-101 overall through age 25 and never better than five games above .500 in a season. Nonetheless, he had a virtually identical quality start percentage to Kershaw at those ages, not to mention 115 complete games and 30 shutouts.

Meanwhile, Seaver kicked off his career with several more years of life experience, and his immediate excellence reflected that. He earned National League Rookie of the Year honors in 1967 and the NL Cy Young Award in 1969. Tom Terrific logged at least 250 innings in each of his first six seasons, whereas Kershaw has never reached that milestone.

The adjusted earned run average and batting average against of 2008 to 2013 Kershaw and 1967 to 1972 Seaver practically match, but remember that Seaver was frequently pushed into the later innings or used on three days’ rest (often both).

Valenzuela Peaked Early, Saberhagen Wasn’t Steady

On the other hand, Kershaw belongs ahead of both Fernandomania and Sabes considering their inconsistencies.

Valenzuela was unstoppable for much of the strike-shortened 1981 season. He led the National League in innings pitched and strikeouts at age 20 en route to the NL Cy Young Award.

Unfortunately, the Mexican lefty couldn’t sustain that excellence. Although nearly as effective in 1982, his WHIP bloated to 1.34 the following season. Then in 1984 and 1985, walks became somewhat of a concern (3.66 BB/9 and 3.34 BB/9, respectively).

Of course, Valenzuela was still a great pitcher in his mid-20s, just not on par with what Kershaw has been for the Dodgers the past several years.

This coming offseason, Kershaw will join Saberhagen in an elite fraternity of pitchers to hoist two Cy Young Awards prior to turning 26. The difference is that Kershaw was more productive in his non-award-winning campaigns.

L.A.’s present-day ace didn’t take home the hardware in 2009, 2010 or 2012, but he still posted adjusted earned run averages of 143, 133 and 150, respectively. Saberhagen pales in comparison, as he only totaled 156 innings and a 102 ERA+ in 1986 (following his first award). After an outstanding ’87 season, he regressed again in 1988. In that era, it wasn’t acceptable for a rotation leader to go a full year without recording a complete-game shutout, yet that’s exactly what happened.

Deciding No. 3, No. 4 and No. 5

Kershaw, Gooden and Clemens. Kershaw, Clemens and Gooden. Gooden, Clemens and Kershaw. Gooden, Kershaw and Clemens. Clemens, Kershaw and Gooden. Clemens, Gooden and Kershaw.

Those are our six options.

Actually, we can narrow them down to three. Clemens had the obvious early career edge over Kershaw.

Their MLB debuts were eerily similar—Clemens had a 97 ERA+ and 8.5 K/9 in 1984, much like Kershaw‘s 98 ERA+ and 8.4 K/9 in 2008.

They diverged, however, after Clemens’ rotator cuff surgery in ’85. With a little help from Dr. James Andrews, the Rocket came back better than ever. Comparing their third, fourth and fifth years, he beat Kershaw in ERA+ (154 to 148) and K/BB (3.70 to 3.48) while averaging about an extra inning per start.

So…Kershaw, Gooden and Clemens. Kershaw, Clemens and Gooden, Gooden, Clemens and Kershaw. Gooden, Kershaw and Clemens, Clemens, Kershaw and Gooden. Clemens, Gooden and Kershaw.

Gooden was initially far superior to Clemens and Kershaw. He made 66 regular-season starts through age 20, unbelievably maintaining a 176 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. Then again, being less than stellar from ages 21 to 25 negates that (110 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP, 7.4 K/9). He ranks last among this trio as a result.

In other words, relative to other pitchers from the past five decades who were moved into MLB starting duty so early in life, Kershaw has bolted to the fourth-best start. He’s only looking up at two Hall of Famers and a third icon who’s a G.O.A.T. candidate (albeit with an asterisk).

Kershaw‘s agents, Casey Close and J.D. Smart, would be wise to quote that paragraph when they negotiate a long-term contract with the Dodgers this winter.

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On deck is the season finale of the thrilling new drama that’s gripped the nation: “Puigmania: The Puigtastical Journey of Yasiel Puig.”

In Episode I, the mysterious young hero burst onto the scene with the Los Angeles Dodgers and started destroying baseballs and sharpshooting baserunners. In Episode II, the young hero was dealt a reality check and began to rub some people the wrong way with his brash style, earning him a reputation in some circles as more of an anti-hero than a true hero. He’s no Superman. He’s Wolverine!

Episode III is up next, and all we know is the premise. It is to be Puig in the postseason, baseball’s ultimate stage. We know not how it will end. Will the young hero thrive? Or will he crumble?

[Dramatic music.]

OK, we can get serious now. I started things off on the silly side because I wanted to make it somewhat clear off the bat that I’m not here to do what the headline might suggest. I’m not here to indulge in Puig bashing. It’s a thing, but not my thing.

The question at hand, however, is one worth asking because…well, consider the following.

Puig hit .305/.381/.477 in his first 52 games. In those, the Dodgers went a ridiculous 40-12. But in 23 September games, Puig has only hit .231/.341/.487. The Dodgers’ record: 10-13.

It’s not all Puig‘s fault that the Dodgers have had a mediocre month. Nor, indeed, are his numbers all that bad. But he has definitely slipped, and that the team has also slipped makes the following deduction out to be fair game: The Dodgers are better when Puig is better.

So he better be ready for the postseason. The Dodgers need him to be.

Since I want to keep the psychoanalysis at a minimum here, let’s let a few numbers have their say about Puig‘s postseason readiness. That’s a process that starts with taking a look at how he’s performed against the clubs the Dodgers could come up against in October.

Before the World Series, those would be the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds. Puig has faced all four of them, so how’s he done?

Pretty good, actually. Here’s a nifty table, with numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com:

If you’re in the dark about ISO, that’s Isolated Power. It’s basically a slugging percentage that ignores singles, hence the reason Puig‘s ISO against the Pirates is zero. He didn’t have any extra-base hits against them in his 13 plate appearances.

But against the Braves, Cardinals and Reds, Puig did well. It’s a good thing that his numbers are particularly strong against Atlanta and St. Louis, as the Dodgers will be playing either one of them in the National League Division Series.

So yeah, encouraging stuff. 

To an extent, anyway.

The big caveats should be obvious. One is the small number of plate appearances. It’s nice that Puig has done well against the upcoming competition, but the small sample sizes make it hard to project success while wearing a straight face.

The other big caveat: The postseason isn’t the regular season. It’s a different animal, one that lures possible prey into a high-pressure environment, weakens them and then feeds. Some players are immune to the pressure. Others aren’t.

This is a harder topic to tackle from statistical perspective. To my knowledge, the dweebs at the Sabermetric Research Facility have yet to come up with a way to quantify a player’s guts. Maybe GARP (Guts Above Replacement Player) will be a thing someday, but it’s not now.

The best we have are leverage stats, which of course are designed to tell us how well players have performed in low-, mid- and high-pressure situations. They’re not terribly predictive, but they’re the kind of stats that can give us the lowdown on how clutch players have (or haven’t) been.

Unfortunately, pressure has not agreed with Puig during his rookie season.

Here’s a table, with data courtesy of FanGraphs:

In low-leverage situations, Puig has thrived. There’s been less ownage in medium-leverage situations, but he’s still been a highly productive player. 

But in high-leverage situations? Not so good. Puig‘s production has crumbled, and that strikeout rate is a doozy. 

Puig‘s issues in late and close situations are part of the problem. Per Baseball-Reference.com, he’s hitting .200 with a .284 OBP in such situations, with a 37.3 strikeout percentage to boot. The one good thing to be said is that he has a .233 ISO in late and close situations, so suffice it to say he’s more or less the definition of “hit or miss” when the pressure is at its highest.

That Puig hasn’t performed in pressure situations could be coincidence, in which case there’s no point in seeing these numbers as signs of an inevitable tragic end to his season. 

But then there’s the possibility that these stats are a symptom of something more real than coincidence. They could be confirmation that Puig tries to do too much when the heat is on.

I’ve gotten the sense in watching him over the months that this is a real issue with him. And while we’re admittedly straying into psychoanalysis now, I don’t feel like insinuating that Puig‘s focus has a tendency to wander in pressure situations requires that big of a leap.

That’s because the guy’s focus tends to wander, period. 

That’s not still a secret at this point, right? Puig‘s been a live wire since the moment he first stepped between the lines back in June. And for all the electricity he’s provided, he’s also provided his share of facepalm-worthy moments. Ugly at-bats. Bad throws. Baserunning blunders. Et cetera.

Since Ramona Shelburne of ESPN Los Angeles nailed them in her recent (and quite good) piece on Puig, I’ll let her do the honor of asking the questions that come to mind:

The Dodgers have but one question: Can they trust [Puig] come playoff time?

‘You don’t want to break his spirit,’ Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said. ‘I love the way he plays. But you don’t want it to end up costing us later.’

 And later:

What if, in Game 2 of the National League Division Series, Puig ignores the cutoff man, tries to throw out a guy he has very little chance of getting at third base, and the ball skips away and into the stands, allowing the runner to score? What if that’s the difference in the game, the series?

This stuff should sound familiar if you’ve read any “WHAT ARE THE DODGERS GOING TO DO ABOUT PUIG?!” columns. Seemingly all of them questioned whether his recklessness could be cured before it hurt the Dodgers. 

It was easy to roll one’s eyes at the time. But with the postseason looming and the Dodgers having come violently back down to earth in September, it’s not so easy now. Puig has failed to become a fundamentally sound ballplayer overnight at any point during the season. He’s not going to do so now just because the timing is convenient. It’s fair to expect there to be some, ahem, episodes in October.

Puig does, however, have one redeeming quality when it comes to his episodes: He has a tendency to make up for them.

The video above this text? That’s of a pinch-hit homer Puig hit in a game against the Miami Marlins back in August. If it doesn’t ring a bell, this would be the same game for which he was initially benched by Mattingly after he showed up late.

Remember the next time Puig was benched? That was a little later in the month when Mattingly got fed up with Puig‘s demeanor in a game against the Chicago Cubs and decided to replace him with Skip Schumaker midway through the proceedings.

The next time Puig played, he went 4-for-5 with a double and an RBI.

More recently, did you see Puig get picked off by Miguel Montero a couple of weeks ago? A small moment in the grand scheme of Puigmania, but it’s worth noting he later went on to hit a home run in what was a three-hit day.

While we’re talking about Montero and the Diamondbacks, remember how Puig responded to that nasty brawl back in June? Over his next eight games, he went 14-for-32.

I’m sure there are instances that are slipping my mind, but this is Puig for you. The bad stuff has happened, and then the good stuff has had a tendency to come and wash it away.

This is mainly because Puig is a talented ballplayer. Talented ballplayers are going to do good things more often than they’re going to do bad things (see also: those numbers in low- and medium-leverage situations). 

But these things have happened also because Puig is a talented major league ballplayer.

That emphasis is an important one to make, as there’s a long list of players who can vouch that talent alone isn’t a guaranteed ticket to success in the majors. The ability to adjust and bounce back are of paramount importance, and Puig has shown that he has both—Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus did a great piece on Puig‘s ability to adjust that’s worth your time.

If Puig didn’t have these abilities, he would have been back in the minors weeks ago.

I therefore suppose the “thick-skinned” label fits him well enough. As distressing as his mental errors and his struggles in pressure situations are with the postseason just around the corner, this is a guy who’s had an excellent rookie season for a big-market, high-profile team with the spotlight on him from day one.

Oh, and he’s only 22. Oh, and he was even younger when he fled his home country, pursuing whatever means necessary to eventually find the spotlight in which he’s thrived.

I’m not without doubts when it comes to Puig. The next day I am will be the first.

But even with those doubts…Yeah, I think he can handle October.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Andre Ethier was held out of the lineup again on Tuesday due to a sore foot, leaving the Los Angeles Dodgers without one of their top outfielders.

The Dodgers had hoped that Ethier would be able to start on Tuesday, as Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times reported on Saturday:

He has jogged and hit during pregame workouts the past two days, and said he is feeling better. Mattingly said if there are no setbacks, he hopes Ethier will be able to play during the three-game series in San Francisco that starts Tuesday.

However, the Dodgers obviously feel that Ethier is not ready to handle the physical demands of MLB play, resulting in his absence in the lineup.

Ethier has had just one at-bat since he injured himself on Sept. 13, with that one plate appearance being a strikeout.

Tuesday marks the 10th consecutive game that Ethier has failed to start in, and he’s running out of time to get back to 100 percent. The Dodgers have just five regular season games left after Tuesday night’s contest against the San Francisco Giants.

Ethier‘s foot has been a serious concern as of late, and according to Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com, he was seen in a walking boot as recently as Sept. 17.

Andre Ethier still wearing protective walking boot on his sprained left ankle.

— Ken Gurnick (@kengurnick) September 17, 2013

While he has taken swings without a problem, Ethier still hasn’t been able to run the bases without discomfort, as reported by Anthony Jackson of Dodgerscribe.com.

Ethier says he feels normal swinging, but rounding bases still uncomfortable.

— Anthony Jackson (@dodgerscribe) September 24, 2013

What’s more, the loss of Ethier is exacerbated by the fact that Matt Kemp still isn’t completely healthy either.

Kemp has played in just 70 games this season and recently returned from an ankle injury that caused him to miss 52 games from July 21 to Sept. 16.

Okay, so this doesn’t look so minor (https://t.co/Shvqc5EqId): pic.twitter.com/tQwPxYdfBL

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) July 21, 2013

Kemp’s recovery also went poorly, as he suffered a setback on Sept. 6. in the form of a hamstring injury.

Matt Kemp felt tightness in one of his hamstrings and has been shut down “indefinitely”

— David Vassegh (@THEREAL_DV) September 6, 2013

Kemp has been a mere shadow of himself in the seven games he’s played in since his return, making the loss of Ethier so much more painful.

While Kemp did go 4-for-4 with three RBI in his second game back, he’s gone 2-for-15 since then without an extra-base hit, run scored or RBI.

The Dodgers have Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford in the outfield alongside the struggling Kemp, but losing Ethier still hurts. The team has gone 3-6 without Ethier this month, including 1-3 against teams with sub-.500 records.

Ethier was also one of the best players the team had in the month of October, as he hit .355 with three home runs, six RBI and seven runs scored in the 2009 postseason. He has not played in the playoffs since, and it remains unclear how much he’ll play in them this season.

The Dodgers do not have a lot of players with postseason experience on their roster. Guys like Puig, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Ricky Nolasco and Hanley Ramirez have never played in the postseason before, leaving the team very inexperienced.

The team also has several stars who have historically struggled in October, including Carl Crawford (.253 BA), Matt Kemp (.226 BA), Clayton Kershaw (5.87 ERA) and Zack Greinke (6.48 ERA). These guys haven’t been able to step up when it matters most, and Ethier was one of the few Dodgers who found postseason success.

The loss of Ethier is a serious one for the early World Series favorites, and L.A. could see its unbelievable second half comeback be all for naught if the team is ousted early in the postseason.

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As one would hope and expect for a team with a $241 million payroll this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are well positioned going forward. Over past two years, general manager Ned Colletti has made several big moves that have filled previous holes: trading for shortstop Hanley Ramirez, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and left fielder Carl Crawford, and signing pitchers Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu and right fielder Yasiel Puig.

Keeping those names in mind is important, because all the Dodger returning starters are signed to long-term deals except ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw, and he will probably agree to an extension this offseason.

In addition, Dodger president Stan Kasten has said that he does not feel comfortable signing players to contracts that will keep them on the team past the age of 36, so that takes the team out of the running if bidding on high-priced players like Robinson Cano causes contracts to run past six seasons (Cano is currently 30 years old).

Begin Slideshow

The NL West has been clinched. The Los Angeles Dodgers have secured their first postseason berth since 2009.

Pop the champagne! Jump in the Diamondbacks’ pool!

Thursday’s thorough celebration was a well-deserved one. It’s been an elevator ride of a season, and for the once-last-place Dodgers to make the playoffs after spiraling out of control in dead last in May is remarkable.

However, it’s only the beginning of the journey. In fact, it’s not even the beginning of the journey, but merely an affirmation that the journey will take place.

The Dodgers have a long road ahead of them as the leaves begin to redden and fall begins to run its course.

The Boys of Summer better zip up their windbreakers because October is an unrelenting month.

It all comes down to this.

NLDS

Having notched the NL West, the Dodgers are guaranteed a spot in the postseason; however, their seed number is still up in the air.

If the regular season were to end today, the Blue Crew would be the No. 3 seed in the National League and would play the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS, with home-field advantage going to the Cardinals.

Nonetheless, with eight games remaining in the season and the Dodgers only two games behind the Cardinals and 3.5 games behind the NL-leading Atlanta Braves, there are a variety of possibilities that could play out.

To close out the season, the Dodgers will play the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants in a road trip and then culminate with a series against the Colorado Rockies in Dodger Stadium.

Based upon their performance against these NL West foes this season, the Dodgers will pull off a pair of wins from the Padres, win one of three games in San Francisco, and win at least two out of three against the Rockies.

That would nudge the Dodgers’ record to 93-69, which wouldn’t push them past either the Braves (91-62)—who will cruise past the Cubs (64-90), Brewers (68-85) and Phillies (71-82)—or the Cardinals (90-64), who should manage to pull off five wins out of their final eight games against the Brewers (68-85), Nationals (83-71) and Cubs (64-90).

In that scenario, the Dodgers will head to St. Louis to play the first two games of the NLDS. It may seem daunting to open the postseason on the road, but the Dodgers have the confidence of winning a series at Busch Stadium earlier in the season under their belt.

Both Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the Dodgers’ respective No. 1 and 2 starters, have fared well on the road this season and will be able to nab at least one win in St. Louis, which will allow the Dodgers to close out the best-of-five series in Los Angeles.

Although the Cardinals are battle-tested in the playoffs, they are without ace Chris Carpenter, which leaves a void in their rotation. Rookie ace Shelby Miller has impressed this season, but he didn’t awe the Dodgers, who hit .296 off him.

NLCS

This is where it would get tricky for the Dodgers. If they do indeed make it past the Cardinals in the NLDS, they’re in for a hard-fought series in the NLCS.

As it stands right now, the Pirates and Reds will square off in a one-game wild-card playoff to face the Braves, who will likely sweep either team.

The Dodgers haven’t had much success against the Braves this season (2-5), but those games were all played in the first half of the season when the Dodgers were a far cry from the team they have molded into.

Regardless of the applicability of the outcome of their head-to-head matchups, the Braves will be a tough team for the Dodgers to face in the NLCS.

Not only are they a well-rounded team, but they have two vital tools that will likely propel them to an NCLS title: pitching and power-hitting.

The Braves’ pitching staff ranks first in MLB in ERA (3.20), and their batting order is tied for the fourth-most home runs in baseball (174).

Nevertheless, the Dodgers are a formidable opponent for the Braves. While Atlanta boasts impressive stats, the Boys in Blue have some encouraging statistics of their own.

The Dodgers only slightly trail the Braves in team ERA (3.33, third), and while they don’t quite stack up to the Braves in the quintessential power-hitting stat (131 HR, 24th), they trump them in batting average (.266, sixth; Braves: .248, 21st).

Beyond the numbers, both teams are starving for a deep postseason berth. The Braves have a chip on their shoulder after losing the NL wild-card game last year. It goes without saying that the Dodgers are famished for postseason fortune with a 25-year World Series drought thrusting them toward the trough.

It’ll be a back-and-forth battle, more than likely decided in seven games, with pitching being the decisive factor.

World Series

If the Dodgers manage to emerge victorious from a strenuous NLCS, they’ll head to their first World Series since 1988, a season that also marks the franchise’s last World Series victory.

There are a bevy of talented teams in the American League that will be serious World Series contenders, from the Oakland A’s to the Tampa Bay Rays.

The general sentiment from many is that the Boston Red Sox, who don the best record in the MLB at 94-61, will be World Series-bound for the first time in six years after missing the playoffs in four straight seasons.

While that yielded a convenient “potential World Series preview” when the Sox came to Chavez Ravine in August for a three-game series, which they won two games to one, they’re not headed to the Series.

Two reasons: 1) Barring Jake Peavy, their starters are unreliable; 2) Their bullpen, particular the back end, is shaky.

The other reason: the Detroit Tigers.

The Red Sox are an incredibly talented team led by veteran designated hitter David Ortiz and gritty second baseman Dustin Pedroia, but the Tigers are a stronger team at the dish and have the starting pitching to exceed the Sox.

Spearheaded by Miguel Cabrera and aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, the Tigers have been incrementally trending towards a World Series title for the past three seasons.

In 2011, they reached their first ALCS in five years during their first playoff run in as many years, and last season they followed it up by making it to the World Series.

In order to win the World Series against the Tigers, the Dodgers would have to play premium baseball on every pitch.

With veteran leader Torii Hunter thriving in Detroit to add to a heavy-slugging lineup that includes Prince Fielder and last year’s Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers are prepared more than ever to win the Series.

Although the Tigers have home-field advantage due to the AL’s victory in this year’s All-Star Game, the Dodgers can’t be dismissed as an unworthy opponent.

Much like the Tigers, the Dodgers have the bats to win the World Series, particularly with a healthy Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier in the lineup to complement Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig.

With the highest payroll in MLB history, the Dodgers—from the front office to the dugout—have harbored the mantra “World Series or bust.”

That mindset, coupled with their widely displayed genuine team chemistry, may just propel this team to achieve its goal, regardless of which opponent stands in its way.

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