Kuzul

Don’t look now, but the Los Angeles Dodgers are starting to get healthy. The latest news, coming courtesy of the team on Twitter, has Matt Kemp getting ready to begin a rehab assignment this weekend. 

Kemp was having an absolutely horrendous season before going on the disabled list May 30 with a hamstring injury. Actually his problems date back to last year, when he had a litany of physical problems that started with his hamstring and included his left shoulder. 

Dating back to the second half of 2012, Kemp is hitting .268/.332/.377 in 515 plate appearances. He has hit just two home runs in 51 games this year. One of the main culprits is the shoulder Kemp had surgery on last year, at least according to Dodgers manager Don Mattingly. 

Those are numbers that would be a surprise for a lot of great players, but especially Kemp when you consider from 2011 and the first half of 2012, he was the best player in the National League.

He should have won the MVP award two years ago, when he hit .324/.399/.586 with 39 home runs and 40 stolen bases, but because his team didn’t make the playoffs, voters gave the honor to Milwaukee‘s Ryan Braun. Kemp followed that up by hitting 12 home runs in April of 2012, but he scuffled for most of the rest of the season due to various injuries. 

For the Dodgers, this is the first step in a long process that could mean big things in the second half of the season. 

It is going to be a long climb out of the National League West cellar, much less the postseason. But for all the things that have gone wrong with them so far in 2013, they are just 8.5 games out of the division lead. 

Plus, in case you have somehow not heard, the Dodgers have found an exciting young talent in the outfield to pair with Kemp in Yasiel Puig. The 22-year-old Cuban sensation has taken the league by storm, hitting .452/.477/.790 in his first 16 games. 

While Puig is obviously going to regress a lot in the coming weeks as pitchers figure out how to exploit the holes in his swing, like the fact that he will chase anything close to the strike zone, Kemp could make up for a lot of that drop in production by returning at full strength. 

Therein lies the problem that no one knows how to answer. Just because Kemp is back, is he really back? Is he going to resemble the player from 2011? Or is the 2013 version we saw before the injury going to be around because his shoulder has messed with his swing so much?

If Kemp is back, things are going to get very interesting out West. The biggest problem that the Dodgers have had, aside from staying healthy, is scoring runs. They are 14th in the National League with 253 runs—only Miami is worse—and 13th in slugging percentage. 

Even though the front office added more than $100 million to the payroll over the last 12 months with the additions of Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, who was having a good bounce-back season before landing on the DL with his own hamstring injury, Zack Greinke and Josh Beckett, this team hasn’t come together as much as most expected it would.

But if you can plug Kemp back into the middle of the order, to go alongside Puig, suddenly that lineup looks a lot deeper and more formidable. Yet for all that Puig has brought to the Dodgers, they are just 7-9 in the 16 games since he was brought up. 

Baseball is a funny game. Even though one player can electrify an entire city, as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper did with their respective teams last year, you need everyone firing on all cylinders if you are going to make the playoffs. One player is not going to change the course of an entire team. 

So even if Kemp returns to full strength and Puig settles in as a .300 hitter with 20 home runs for the season, is that really enough to propel the Dodgers into the postseason?

The answer, unfortunately, is probably not. 

Their lineup will look better with Puig, Kemp, Ramirez, Gonzalez and, when he returns, Crawford at the top, but Gonzalez still isn’t hitting for a lot of over-the-wall power and Ramirez is an enigma that will likely never be figured out. 

Beyond that, there are a lot of defensive replacements and bench players, like Skip Schumaker and Nick Punto, forced into starting roles because there is no depth at all on this roster. Their farm system is bare on position players, especially now that Puig has been brought up. 

Also, you have to factor in the competition. Even though there is no reason to think the Rockies will continue to hang around .500 with that pitching staff, Arizona and San Francisco are very dangerous. The Giants, especially, since they have gotten nothing from Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum this season, yet still find themselves hanging around .500 thanks to an improved offense and one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

The Diamondbacks have quietly taken control of the division with one of the deepest pitching rotations in baseball and an offense that, while not going to bash your head in, can push some runs across the board in a hurry. 

And we must not forget the suddenly surging San Diego Padres, who have climbed over .500 and won eight of their last 10 games. I won’t buy them as serious contenders right now, but they have done all this with Chase Headley really struggling and Jedd Gyorko on the DL. Their pitching staff, which ranks 13th in NL ERA despite playing in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball, will determine how far they go. 

Even with some serious question marks facing all four teams in the NL West, that is still a lot of stiff competition in the division for the Dodgers and a lot of things they have to fix in a hurry before we can say they belong in the postseason conversation. 

It is great that they are getting healthy. We just have no evidence thus far that, even with those big-name pieces falling into place, they are good enough to compete with the best the NL has to offer. 

A completely healthy Kemp and red-hot Puig can change that conversation quickly. We just don’t know how much longer the magic will last for Puig or what Kemp has to offer upon returning. 

If you want to debate the National League West, or anything else baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions or comments. 

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In just 16 games, Los Angeles Dodgers phenom Yasiel Puig has captivated the imagination and attention of the baseball world. He’s been called a five-tool talent by Jerry Crasnick of ESPN. The highlights and statistics he’s generated in a short time support that concept.

While major league pitchers will be sure to make adjustments to limit some of Puig‘s effectiveness, his talent level and passion are so high, the possibility that Puig will be a flash in the pan is unlikely.

Of all the eye-popping numbers Puig has registered in his short time in the majors, the following are the most startling.

At Bats Per HR – 10.3

The 22-year-old Cuban sensation has six home runs in just 62 at bats. At 10.3 at bats per homer, Puig is hitting home runs at a pace just behind current major-league leader Chris “Crush” Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. Davis has slammed 26 home runs in just 264 at bats for an at-bats-per HR average of 10.2.

Obviously Davis’ sustained success through 72 games is impressive, one has to wonder where Puig would be in the HR race had he been on the major league roster on opening day.

Total Bases – 49

Puig is averaging just over three total bases per game. If he maintained that pace—which is obviously quite unlikely—for a 162-game season he’d rack up a total of 496.

That total would shatter Babe Ruth’s single-season record of 457 set in 1921. Puig hasn’t hit a major slump, been injured, or simply cooled off at this point. But even with those realistic impediments, he’d have room to fall off and still find himself in rare air in this category.

Outfield Assists – 2

It may not seem like a big number, but if you’ve seen the throws Puig has made, you get the point. Not only does he have speed and a big glove—literally and figuratively speaking—he has a cannon for an arm.

Over 162 games, Puig would be on pace for 20 assists. He’d never get that many because runners and base coaches would simply stop testing him, but the skill is amazing. Check out Puig doubling up San the Diego Padres Chris Denorfia in the former’s major-league debut.

Walks – 1

To say Puig is a free swinger is like saying Jose Valverde is a little superstitious. In 65 plate appearances, Puig has taken only one walk. To further drive the point home, that free pass was issued intentionally. The Braves‘ Jordan Walden put Puig on in the bottom of the eighth inning of a tie game on June 7.

Puig had launched his fourth home run of the year in his previous at bat off Paul Maholm. With a runner on third, two outs and Mark Ellis on deck, the D’Backs wanted no part of Puig.

This was all part of Puig‘s first seven days in the majors that landed him NL Player of the Week honors.

At some point, Puig will have to be a little more disciplined, but he has the rare ability to get hits on pitches that are out of the strike zone. 

These numbers are all extraordinary, but something tells me we’ll soon expect nothing less from No. 66.

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After helping the San Francisco Giants win the 2010 World Series, Juan Uribe signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for three years and $21 million.  The deal was panned from the outset, with critics complaining that it was too long and for too much money.  There’s even an article from December 2010 in which ESPN’s Jon Weisman explains why Jamey Carroll was better than Uribe.

And for much of his contract, all of that was true.  Each of the last two years, Uribe has been terrible.  In 2010, he posted a .204/.264/.293 line; in 2011, it was .191/.258/.284.  But so far this year, he’s been much better, to the tune of .260/.354/.390.

So what’s changed?  Two things: His power has returned, and his walk rate is way up.

The return of his power isn’t that surprising; he was always known as a power-hitting shortstop. During his peak with the White Sox and Giants (ages 24-30), he had only one season in which he hit fewer than 16 home runs.  For those seven years, he averaged 22 home runs per 162 games and had a .185 ISO.  For his entire career—even factoring in the last two terrible years—his ISO (SLG-AVG, a measure of how many of a player’s hits go for extra bases) is still .167.

This year, his ISO is .130, which is still below his career level and by a significant amount (more than two standard errors).  Because he has such a lengthy track record of power, the fact that it has returned after 474 poor plate appearances (in 2011 and 2012)—while not a given because of his age—is not shocking.

Whether or not it will continue is another question.  In general, power surges come from increases in home run-to-fly ball rate as an inordinate number of fly balls leave the park.  Uribe’s HR/FB rate, though, is 8.8 percent, nearly a full percentage point below his career level of 9.7 percent, and he has only three home runs thus far this year.

He’s also hitting fewer fly balls in general, so it’s not even that the lower HR/FB is masking an increase in volume.  He’s hitting more ground balls than he ever has in his career, and ground balls have a better chance of finding holes and going for base hits than fly balls do.

Is this sustainable?  Maybe, but we don’t know for sure.  Last year, Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus published an article that studied at what point rate statistics stabilize.

If we assume that Uribe’s success is driven from his newfound ability to hit the ball on the ground, then the fact that he has put more than 80 balls in play this year (the sample size Carleton pointed to at which ground ball rate stabilizes) indicates that this new 45% GB rate is indicative of Uribe’s true talent.

However, if we believe that for whatever reason Uribe’s power has simply returned this year, then there we cannot draw any conclusions.  The number Carleton pinpoints for the stabilization of ISO is 160 at-bats—a number that Uribe has not yet reached this season.

The other big change in Uribe is his walk rate, and this provides a more definitive look at his success.  Uribe is walking in 13.1 percent of his plate appearances in 2013, which is more than double his career rate of 5.8 percent.

Carleton’s study found that walk rate stabilizes at 120 plate appearances, a number that Uribe has already reached this season.  This comes with a caveat, though, as Carleton points out in his very next article: This “stabilization point” indicates only that the rates will reflect the current talent level of the player.  It does not claim that the player’s talent level will remain the same for any specified length of time.

Therefore, while we can say that over those 120 plate appearances the 13.1 percent walk rate really does reflect Uribe’s skills, it does not guarantee future performance because—to quote Carleton again—“by denominating time per year, we ignore the fact that a baseball player lives a day-to-day life.”

The question I’m attempting to answer here is whether or not Uribe will be able to keep up this walk rate through the rest of the season.  The numbers certainly point towards the answer being yes, but perhaps Uribe has found something that works, and he will lose whatever “it” is after taking four days off for the All-Star break.

Or maybe new Dodgers hitting coach Mark McGwire has found a way to get through to Uribe in a way that previous hitting coach Dave Hansen was unable to, and this is a totally legitimate skill change.  I don’t know.

What I do know is that Uribe’s sample size this season is large enough to truly indicate a skill change.

I find it difficult to predict what he will do going forward, because the idea that a 33-year-old free-swinger has suddenly become a walk machine—his 13.1 BB% ranks 19th among all hitters with at least 140 plate appearances—seems far-fetched.  However, there is at least a good chance that Uribe has discovered a new way to be productive.

With a struggling offense, the Dodgers lineup needs all the help it can get.  Uribe has been a useful member, and Dodger fans certainly hope he will be able to continue the strong performance.

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Everybody’s favorite son had another big week for the big league team, including his first ever MLB-level heave-ho. Yasiel Puig continues to pound the baseball into submission for the Dodgers, prompting Don Mattingly to announce that he will stay up when Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp return.

That means Joc Pederson is stuck in Double-A until further notice, and pending a trade or injury, probably won’t see any action until the rosters expand. Given Mattingly‘s announcement, this will be the last week we see Puig in our rankings, as a full-time Major League player will no longer be considered a “prospect” for me. 

The bad news for the Dodgers is that they are in last place, about seven games out of first place. The good news is that everyone else is lumped in a cluster about two games apart at the top of the division, and will be beating each other up the rest of the first half. This may be the big opportunity to sneak back in.

With everyone getting healthy (finally), there may be less room for call-ups. Although Chris Withrow did get the promotion last week and performed admirably in his first couple MLB appearances. We could see more bullpen arms make the jump.

Let’s review this week’s top 10, as compared to last week’s group.

All stats courtesy of MiLB.com and current as of 6/18/2013.

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Clayton Kershaw is not happy with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

According to The Los Angeles Times, Kershaw was displeased that contract discussions were leaked to the media, saying it’s now a distraction.

“I think the reason we’ve been able to continue discussions for this long is that it’s not been talked about,” Kershaw said. “And now that I’m having to talk about it, it’s a distraction because people are talking about it. I guess you’ll have to talk to the Dodgers as to why it came out now. I don’t love the fact that I have to talk about it.”

Kershaw felt he had a gentleman’s agreement with the Dodgers to not talk speak about the contract publicly.

“It didn’t come from our side,” Kershaw said. “I’m going to still hold up my end of the bargain and not talk about it.”

The question now is does this hurt the Dodgers’ future? Could it possibly lead Kershaw to hold off talks until the offseason and possibly until he’s a free agent?

Hurt Feelings

Kershaw may have had his feelings hurt just a little because someone leaked this to the media, but it’s not like contract extension talks were a secret.

Multiple media outlets, including Bleacher Report, have long considered Kershaw and the Dodgers to be working on an extension. Most have tried to guess how much he’ll make.

The fact that they’re making progress shouldn’t hurt Kershaw‘s feelings. The fact that it leaked shouldn’t, either. In today’s social-media world, that kind of stuff happens.

It’s hard for anything to be done in secret. Just look at the country’s political scene from the IRS scandal to the Edward Snowden situation. Even when sworn to secrecy at the highest levels of government, stuff still gets leaked.

So, what would make Kershaw think progress on contract talks wouldn’t be leaked?

Welcome to the good ole USA.

He’s Going to Get Paid

No matter what happens, Kershaw is going to get paid.

Being that he’s just 25, he’s likely going to become the highest-paid pitcher in baseball.

Justin Verlander’s contract extension that could pay him $202 million over seven years would just be a starting point for the Dodgers (or any team if Kershaw goes to free agency).

Verlander’s highest-paid years are from 2015 to 2019, in which he’ll make $28 million a season.

As far as Kershaw, he’ll likely be the first pitcher to reach $30 million in a year. His total contract will likely exceed $210-215 million.

And there aren’t too many teams that can afford that. In fact, outside of the Dodgers, I don’t see anyone paying that kind of money.

The New York Yankees are looking to be more frugal with their spending, while the Philadelphia Phillies have a lot of money they still owe their top pitchers.

The Dodgers are currently the only team that can afford to open their checkbook and pay multiple players absurd amounts of money.

This is just a small hiccup and both parties will get past it.

Kershaw wants to stay with the Dodgers over the course of his career, and the Dodgers want to keep him in town.

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In a year that has featured a couple of blockbuster deals for pitchers, it appears that Clayton Kershaw may very well be the next pitcher to land a megadeal.

According to a report by Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, the Los Angeles Dodgers are currently in talks with Kershaw about a contract extension.  The extension would likely be for seven years and over $180 million, which means it would top the deal Justin Verlander got back in March.  Felix Hernandez was able to sign a seven-year deal worth $175 million back in February. 

That means that if this deal goes over the $180 million mark, Kershaw will be the highest-paid pitcher in baseball.

Apparently, the two sides also talked about a few other deals, including a deal that would be for 12 years and worth $300 million.

The 2011 NL Cy Young Award winner has a 66-41 record and 2.71 ERA to go along with 1,070 strikeouts over his career. In 2011, he went 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts.

This season has been just as impressive for Kershaw.  Although his team has been struggling, he has an ERA of only 1.84 paired with a microscopic 0.97 WHIP.  He leads the National League with the best ERA and most strikeouts with 104.

At only 25 years old, the two-time All-Star certainly appears to deserve a big contract.  He’s been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing season for the Dodgers, who are currently last in the NL West division.

Although nothing has been decided as of yet, the two sides appear to be working hard at getting this deal done. Once it is finalized, expect yet another huge contract for a fantastic pitcher.

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Yasiel Puig has quickly taken baseball by storm, but if he wants to keep playing at a high level, the Dodgers need to rein him in.

The 22-year-old outfielder is batting .487 with four home runs and 10 RBI in just 12 games.

But yet after just 12 games, he’s already refused to speak to reporters. And there’s his role in this epic brawl with the Diamondbacks, in which he strained his shoulder and was forced to miss a game due to the injury:

If that’s not enough, his teammates knew that his pugnacious style would get him in trouble. As catcher Tim Federowicz told ESPN: “We knew at some point somebody was going to try to knock [Puig] down.” In addition, Mark Saxon of ESPN reported that the Dodgers have been worried about Puig‘s “showmanship” since spring training. 

That’s quite the rap sheet for someone who’s been in the bigs for just a few weeks. 

Everyone knows about Puig‘s talent. It’s remarkable. He has incredible power and has pretty much hit everything—he has a 72 percent contact rate on balls outside of the strike zone. He also has a remarkable arm from right field:

But talent is one thing—sustaining it is another. And while Puig has the makings of a star, he needs to be able to be calm on the field. The more incidents he gets involved in, the more he becomes a target, and soon the Dodgers may not want to deal with him.

And it’s not like he’s done that much to help the Dodgers. The team is 28-38 and has lost five of its last six. The wheels are quickly falling off. Don Mattingly is on the hot seat, and as Howard Cole of LA Weekly said, “if he can get his club to within a chance to win a ballgame, he can blow it.”

Yet Puig is probably the one player who can bring the Dodgers out of the doldrums. But at 8.5 games back of the first-place Diamondbacks, time is running out.

But if his first few weeks in the majors is an indication, Puig won’t end up saving the Dodgers. He’ll continue to ruffle feathers, and perhaps worse. As Dodgers reliver Paco Rodriguez told ESPN:

Here, you’ve got to be professional, know how to carry yourself and how to act around the older guys. You have to give them their space. He’s kind of wild, all over the place, but you have to understand that’s more of the culture of baseball in Cuba. Once he tones it down a little, you can tell he’s going to be a great player.

The Dodgers may prove to be a bad environment for the fiery Puig. A team in turmoil that is quickly going south is usually a disaster waiting to happen. There’s nothing Puig can do.

Besides, the antics seem even worse when it comes from a rookie on a last-place team. Unless the Dodgers can begin to rein Puig in, then he might burn out as quickly as he came in. And with all that talent, it would be a shame. 

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In the short span of two weeks, Yasiel Puig has become the hottest player in baseball, adding yet another top player to an already star-studded lineup.

Nevertheless, as Puig joins All-Stars and Cy Young winners like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, there is a cluster of Dodgers whose contributions don’t typically make it to the front page of the LA Times.

The journeymen, the role players, if you will.

Let’s take a look at the Dodgers players who have excelled so far this season and haven’t necessarily gotten the recognition they’ve deserved. 

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Teams will normally assess where they are in the standings much closer to the trade deadline on July 31st before deciding if they will be “buyers” or “sellers”. Yet, here we are in June and there are a handful of teams that have to feel like they are heading in the wrong direction and it’s getting close to “do or die” time. 

Back in April, I made some arguments for why teams should consider making trades earlier in the season, if possible, with the few extra wins in the standings potentially being the difference between going to the playoffs or going home for the winter. 

In these June trade ideas, the goal is for a team to avoid dropping out of contention and into “seller” mode by the end of July or, in some cases, to just make a trade a month earlier to try and win a few extra games. The challenge is finding a non-contending team—Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Marlins, Mets are included in this group—that has an impact player that they’re willing to trade now. 

Here are three potential trades that should be made now.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have received a huge boost in excitement from Cuban sensation Yasiel Puig. Unfortunately, this will not lead to much more team success.

Puig has played eight outstanding games for the Dodgers. To this point, he has more three-hit games (three) than games with one or fewer hits (two). Overall, he is batting .500 (16-of-32) with four home runs and 10 RBI.

Additionally, his defense is also outstanding with one of the strongest arms you will see from an outfielder in a long time. Arash Markazi of ESPN explained that the veterans covering the game were surprised:

He also showed in the minor leagues that he is capable of stealing bases, although he has not gotten to that point in the majors yet.

The phenom is bringing a ridiculous amount of energy and excitement to the fanbase and supporters of the team from all over.

ESPN’s Darren Rovell discussed how much an autograph from the young player would be worth:

According to Dylan Hernandez and Bill Shaiken of the Los Angeles Times, the team sold 3,000 units of merchandise related to the outfielder in the first four days they were on sale, which is a new franchise record.

It is obvious that the Dodgers are raking it in as an organization and should be extremely happy that Puig is part of the team. Unfortunately, none of this guarantees wins on the field.

Los Angeles had high hopes entering the season with one of the biggest payrolls in baseball. Unfortunately, almost everyone on the team is either hurt or playing extremely poorly.

The team has already gone through nine starting pitchers this season. Outside of Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu, the squad has not found any reliability in the rotation. However, the lineup has been even worse.

With the exception of Adrian Gonzalez, the hitters on the roster have been very disappointing. Matt Kemp and Andre Eithier have each won a Silver Slugger in their career but have combined for only six home runs this season. Kemp is barely topping a .250 batting average, which is miles better than Either at .229.

All of this—combined with a major league high of 15 losses from relievers—has led to a terrible start from the Dodgers. The squad is 27-36 to sit in last place in the National League West.

While the first thought is that Puig and is great play will turn the squad around, that has not been the case. The team has lost the last three games despite the outfielder going 8-for-13 in that stretch.

One player is not enough to win games in baseball. Last season, Mike Trout put together one of the best rookie years in history and almost won MVP. However, the Los Angeles Angels were still unable to reach the playoffs.

The Dodgers have been terrible so far this season and the majority of the roster has not improved since Puig‘s debut. It takes an entire squad to turn things around, and it does not appear that this team is capable of doing it.

According to ESPN.com, Los Angeles only has a 2.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. Although this does not completely eliminate the squad, it will need a lot more than just the amazing play of Puig to get back into the postseason picture.

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