Kuzul

Matt Kemp’s sluggish start is suddenly the least of the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ concerns.

That’s because Zack Greinke fractured his collarbone in a donnybrook that was triggered when Carlos Quentin charged the mound after being plunked in the shoulder by a fastball. You might’ve heard, as the incident’s getting a bit of media coverage.

Whether the injury occurred in the initial collision between the two or at the bottom of the pile of humanity that formed on top of them is immaterial. Even a shameless Dodger basher must admit the San Diego Padres‘ slugger owns the blame for both and rightfully so. 

But the larger media reaction—more or less summarized by this gem—has been incredible from one angle and predictable from another.

It’s been incredible because there seems to be a groundswell behind the idea that Quentin deserved a longer suspension than the eight games he got and is appealing (a similar suspension to those received by MLB‘s recent hard chargers).

That would make sense if Carlos did something totally unreasonable like charging the mound when there was obviously no intent (say, if he were hit with a curve ball) or knocked Greinke to the ground then stomped him out.

In those scenarios, the Stanford alum would’ve actually crossed a line by baseball standards.

In this case, though, I don’t see it.

That’s not to say the Dodgers’ No. 2 starter was definitely throwing at Quentin. It’s to say that nothing rules out the possibility.

Many people keep pointing to the game context as proof that Greinke couldn’t have been targeting a guy he’d already hit twice in his career. LA was up by one run and the count was 3-2 on the Padres’ No. 3 hitter who was leading off the sixth inning…

That’s it.

For some reason, nobody would ever throw at a batter in that situation.

Forget the history between the two players.

As Jayson Stark points out, Greinke‘s hit Quentin about once every 10 times the two have faced each other since 2008. In that same span, he’s hit a batter not named Carlos Quentin once every 225 plate appearances.

Forget that it’s April and there are still over 150 games to play. Yes, an April win counts as much as a September win, but let’s not be naive.

Forget that Zack Greinke is a player who’s gone on record implying that winning isn’t the most important thing to him. Forget that the Friars’ lineup falls off a cliff after Quentin so you wouldn’t be throwing a strike to the opposition’s most dangerous hitter when he’s sitting in full count in a one-run game. Which means if Greinke doesn’t think the hitter would go fishing and has a beef with him, dousing him might be an entirely attractive option.

Forget that Greinke is one of the premier arms in the game. One who probably wouldn’t be too concerned about pitching through a leadoff baserunner regardless of what was waiting in the wings. Infinitely less so when those hitters are Yonder Alonso, Jedd Gyorko and Nick Hundley.

Forget all of that because nobody would throw at the leadoff hitter in the sixth inning of a one-run game. Ever.

That seems like a foolish argument to me.

Again, that’s not to say the right-hander was clearly throwing at Quentin or even that Carlos behaved reasonably.

To be honest, that pitch looked like Greinke pulled his fastball too much and it tailed back on him. Happens all the time.

Furthermore, the Padre is notorious for hanging over the plate and lunging into pitches, then not trying to avoid the HBP when the offering bores inside. When you get pegged as often as he does (check the second subheading here), you probably shouldn’t be headed to the mound except under the most explicit of circumstances.

And given the game context, it is unlikely that there was intent behind the fastball.

Not out of the question for the reasons stated, but unless the righty sincerely and viscerally dislikes Quentin, it would be a strange spot to throw at someone.

However, melees over misunderstandings aren’t exactly rare.

Plus you have to consider that (A) batters aren’t thrilled about getting pelted around the shoulders even when it’s purely accidental and (B) Greinke wasn’t exactly contrite afterwards. So let’s not pretend this is an obscene loss of composure.

As for the injury itself, that’s just bad luck. It’s not like Carlos body-slammed his prey or jump kicked him or anything else that would be considered excessive in a baseball brawl. He crashed into Greinke and they went to the ground.

Pretty standard.

Of course, Greinke‘s contract and the aura surrounding the Bums this season are very much nonstandard.

The hurler inked the largest contract ever given to a right-hander over the offseason in one of a flurry of flashy moves made by Los Doyers. Then there’s the matter of the mega-deal for broadcasting rights the franchise signed with Time Warner.

Consequently, it’s yawn-inducing that Magic Johnson’s colleague at ESPN (Stark) would write something like: “The Dodgers’ beautiful…2013 season can’t ever be the same.” It is likewise predictable that so many are parroting John Paul Morosi’s sentiment (via FOX Sports): “It was obvious to everyone else that Greinke‘s pitch wasn’t on purpose.”

Or that so many seem to be advocating harsher punishment because of the result—a serious injury to an excellent player and a headline generator.

When you combine a new ownership group with a lovable front man (who’s also employed by the industry’s 800-pound gorilla), a $7 billion infusion of capital, a roster of all-star names and a major media market, well, it’s no surprise that you get most-favored-franchise status.

Granted, “unsurprising” and “foolish” are not mutually exclusive adjectives.

Carlos Quentin got precisely what he deserved. He got a stiff-but-reasonable penalty that was in keeping with precedent because what he did wasn’t extraordinary, even if the cost of the incident was.

That doesn’t make for a sensational story, but the truth can be uncooperative.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Clayton Kershaw has picked a great time to enter into contract re-negotiations with the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Actually, the negotiations started back in spring training but, despite Kershaw originally saying he didn’t want them to continue once the regular season started if no deal was struck, they appear to be ongoing. 

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, there is already a strong sense that Kershaw will be the first pitcher to get a contract worth at least $200 million and a baseball official is quoted as saying “I hear they’re already over $200 million.”

It should be pointed out that Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Tmes wrote on April 2 that there was no deal imminent between Kershaw and the Dodgers. Of course, these things can turn in a hurry, so all we can really say is stay tuned. 

Let’s just start with the $200 million mark and what that would mean. The two biggest contracts signed by pitchers happened this offseason. 

First, Felix Hernandez agreed to an extension with the Seattle Mariners in February for seven years and $175 million. 

Just a few weeks later, Justin Verlander signed a five-year extension with the Detroit Tigers that will be tacked on to the two years he has left on a deal he agreed to before the 2010 season. The total value of those contracts guarantees the 2011 Cy Young winner and AL MVP $180 million over the next seven years, with a $22 million option for 2020. 

Any long-term extension for a pitcher is risky due to the nature of the position, but if anyone in baseball has earned the right to be called the richest starter in history, it would be Justin Verlander. 

Even at 30 years old, Verlander has proven himself to be incredibly durable—he has thrown at least 200 innings and made at least 32 starts in six consecutive seasons—and consistent with an ERA of 3.45 or lower and more than 200 strikeouts in the last four years. 

Using Verlander’s extension as the barometer, it is easy to see why Kershaw would have a great case to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball if/when he signs an extension with the Dodgers. 

It also helps that we know the Dodgers are going to spend any amount of money if they feel it will improve their chances to win a World Series. In the last 12 months, they have added $111 million to the payroll with the additions of Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Brandon League and Zack Greinke. 

Magic Johnson, who is part of the ownership group that bought the Dodgers last year, said during the team’s season opener against San Francisco, in which Kershaw threw a complete game shutout and hit a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning, the left-hander will be the highest paid pitcher in baseball. 

It is a terrible negotiating tactic, made worse by the fact that Johnson actually called Kershaw their “Sandy Koufax of today.”

There are two key factors that have to be considered when looking at a long-term extension for a baseball player, especially a pitcher: Age and durability. 

Kershaw was brought to the big leagues in 2008 at the age of 20, so even though he has been around for a long time, he just turned 25 on March 19. It is remarkable what the southpaw has accomplished already despite being just one year older than Chicago’s Chris Sale. 

Certainly, if you were banking on one of these three pitchers (Verlander, Hernandez, Kershaw) to hold their value through an entire length of a contract, you would have to say Kershaw just because he has age on his side. Verlander is the oldest of the group at 30, with Hernandez second at 27 years old. 

The resumes for Verlander, Kershaw and Hernandez are remarkably similar. All three have won a Cy Young award, though Verlander is the only one with an MVP award. All three have proven to be incredibly reliable, making at least 30 starts every full season of their careers. (Verlander debuted late in the 2005 season and made two starts.) All three have consecutive seasons of at least 200 strikeouts—Verlander and Hernandez are at four, while Kershaw is at three entering 2013.

Looking at durability throughout his career so far, Kershaw has been as safe as any pitcher in baseball since his first full season in 2009. He has made at least 30 starts in four straight years, including 98 over the last three years, and thrown at least 200 innings with over 200 strikeouts every year since 2010. 

But the point of a new contract—or at least what the point should be–is to pay for future value, not what a player has already done. That is where baseball is different from a sport like, say, football. 

The NFL, aside from having contracts that are terrible for the players since they can be released on a dime and are always forced to re-negotiate due to the salary cap, tends to pay for what a player will do in the future. 

Major League Baseball teams tend to pay players based on what they have already done. There is no rational argument for the Yankees giving Alex Rodriguez, heading into his age-32 season, a new 10-year, $275 million deal in December 2007, or the Angels giving Albert Pujols his own 10-year contract heading into his age-32 season before 2012. 

Kershaw is one of the rare exceptions where the team giving the extension—in this case, the Dodgers—would be paying for a lot of peak years and a few declining years. 

You do worry about mileage on Kershaw‘s arm at such a young age. Through his first two starts in 2013, the Dodgers’ ace has thrown 15,408 pitches in his career (via Fangraphs). 

While you have to take every case differently, there are a limited number of pitches in an arm before the wear and tear starts to settle in. Throwing a baseball is an unusual act because of all the stress and torque put on an arm, and it is being done 100 times every five days by the typical starting pitcher. 

But until you have some physical evidence that Kershaw is slowing down, the risk of a long-term extension is much lower than it would be for a pitcher older than he is with the same amount of mileage on his arm. 

Kershaw‘s fastball velocity is down a tick this year compared to where it was in 2012 (93.2 to 92.6), via Fangraphs, but he has just made two starts and it can take time for a pitcher to build his arm back up to where it usually is. 

So yes, there is a very strong, very real case to be made that Kershaw‘s extension, whenever he signs it, is more than justified at being over the $200 million mark that Heyman‘s source is hearing. 

That is not a slap in the face of Verlander, who is still regarded as the best pitcher in baseball and will be until he shows he isn’t. It is a testament to how well timed Kershaw‘s negotiations are, how much money the Dodgers are willing to spend and the ever-expanding market for starting pitchers in baseball. 

For more analysis on pitcher contracts, or anything else baseball related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. 

Follow @adamwells1985

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

One week into the season, the Dodgers sit in third place in the NL West, one game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies. 

So far, the team has allowed just 10 runs in six games, demonstrating the strength of its pitching staff.  It has certainly been an impressive start, but there are some things to watch for as the season progresses.

Here are the six best early-season storylines.

Begin Slideshow

Friday night was the much-anticipated debut of Zack Greinke in Dodger blue, and it went very well.  He pitched 6.1 strong innings, striking out six and allowing just two hits without conceding any walks.

Greinke dominated a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has some high-end talent in it, led by last year’s third-place finisher in the NL MVP race, Andrew McCutchen, who was held to just one hit.

There was some trepidation on the part of the Dodgers heading into the outing because Greinke had been struggling with some elbow inflammation during spring training.  Indeed, he made only 92 pitches, despite the fact that he was cruising through the game.

He was as sharp as can be expected in his first start, locating his fastball well and generally staying around the strike zone.  He began the game with his fastball velocity hovering around 91 or 92 and mixed in his mid-70s curveball effectively.  His combination of pitches enabled him to keep the Pirates off-balance all game.

He was efficient from the get-go, making just nine pitches in the first inning and getting five of his first seven outs on ground balls before picking up his first strikeout.  He would then go on to strike out four in a row, though, as he settled in.  His fastball picked up some late life, and he was able to effectively begin to mix in his changeup.

As the game went on, he moved his fastball in and out and varied his pitches well on his way to his six strikeouts.

He got enough support from his offense to win the game, as an Andre Ethier home run propelled the Dodgers to a lead they would never relinquish, and the initial one-run cushion was all Greinke would need.

This was a very encouraging start for Greinke and the Dodgers, and it would have been even if there hadn’t been lingering injury concerns.  As it is, he demonstrated why FanGraphs has him as the eighth-most valuable pitcher over the last three seasons.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

A number of players enjoyed big games on Opening Day, but Clayton Kershaw bested them all in his first start of the new season for the Dodgers.

The left-hander shut out the Giants on Monday, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out seven. If that wasn’t enough, he also hit a solo home run off of Giants reliever George Kontos in the bottom of the eighth to give the Dodgers a 1-0 lead. L.A. went on to win 4-0.

It was another dominant performance in what has been a dominant career to this point for the 25-year-old. He currently sits at 62-37 with a 2.77 ERA and 9.3 K/9 for his career, and he’s captured the NL ERA title each of the past two seasons.

A member of the Dodgers’ rotation at the age of 20, it’s scary to think Kershaw is just entering his prime with what he has already accomplished.

A number of marquee pitchers have received massive contract extensions the past few years, and Kershaw may very well be next. Here’s a look at the notable deals that have been signed recently.

All contract info via Baseball Prospectus.

The one thing that stands out here, aside from what a ridiculous amount of money these guys are making, is the fact that Kershaw is younger than any of them were at the time of their extensions. 

In fact, he’s at least three years younger than everyone besides Hernandez, and those two have a lot in common.

Both already have a Cy Young under their belt, both were in the rotation full-time by the age of 20 and both turned in dynamite performances on Opening Day.

It’s safe to assume Kershaw will eclipse Hamels as the highest-paid left-hander of all time once he does come to terms on an extension, and you have to think Verlander has helped set the market with his extension.

Kershaw will make $11 million this coming season and is under team control through 2014, but the Dodgers will no doubt move to buy out his final year of arbitration and lock him into a long-term deal before he ever nears free agency.

Given what Verlander has accomplished to this point, he deserves to be the highest-paid pitcher in the game, but given the fact that Kershaw is a full five years younger certainly works in his favor.

In all reality, Kershaw has a real shot at being the first $200 million pitcher, and a seven-year, $200 million deal would give him an annual salary of $28.6 million.

He’s likely not going to get any cheaper, as the price of pitching is at an all-time high (see Sanchez, Anibal). If the Dodgers were wise, they’d move quickly to lock up their young ace, as another Cy Young-caliber season will only push his value higher.

My guess is something gets done here within the next couple weeks, and Kershaw falls just short of the $200 million plateau. A seven-year, $182 million deal would give him a nice, round annual salary of $26 million and still make him the highest-paid pitcher ever.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers‘ record-breaking annual payroll of approximately $223 million shows how much the Guggenheim Partners group desires to resurrect the franchise. However, the product that appears on the field on Opening Day will be less than stellar.

New season. New players. New enthusiasm. A beautifully renovated stadium. For the first time in four years, hearts are thumping in anticipation amongst Dodgers’ fans everywhere.

The problem is, those fans may be dealt a heavy dose of disappointment, at least in the early stages of the season.

A great place to begin the analysis is in the outfield, which potentially could be the finest baseball has seen in years.

A healthy and productive Matt Kemp will be the backbone of the Dodgers’ run production in 2013. And a resurgent Andre Ethier will complement the offensive output. If Kemp can come anywhere close to his .324 average, 39 home runs and 126 RBI from 2011, the Boys in Blue may soar.

Ethier hopes not only to get back on track in the power department but also to improve his performance against left-handed pitching. Andre poked 31 homers and collected 106 RBI in 2009. If he shows the ability to approach those numbers, he would exceed most expectations.

Left fielder Carl Crawford is the X-factor early on in the season. If his recovery from Tommy John surgery progresses nicely, this may be an exceptional outfield. Nobody expects him to live up to his banner year of 2006 when he hit .305 with 18 bangers, 16 triples, 77 RBI and 58 stolen bases, but again, anything on the radar of these figures would be beautiful.

The biggest problem with Crawford right now is his arm strength, and if anything should affect his health in the coming weeks, the only other options in left are Skip Schumaker and Jerry Hairston Jr.

And this is where it gets ugly, at least on the offensive side.

Adrian Gonzalez at first base anchors the infield, both with his glove and at the dish. Just for reference, it was only 2011 when he hit .338 with 27 homers and 117 RBI for the Boston Red Sox.

Outside of Gonzo, and considering the thumb injury to Hanley Ramirez at the World Baseball Classic, the remainder of the infield looks bleak.

Thirty-five-year-old Mark Ellis is set to man second base on a daily basis, despite his continuing struggles to hit right-handed pitching. Luis Cruz, a career minor leaguer up until last year, is poised to produce at short. The third base spot may be a rotation of Juan Uribe, Nick Punto and Hairston Jr.

Not one single Dodgers fan across the land expected Uribe to hang around this long.

A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz will handle the duties behind the dish. Ellis had an impressive year in 2012, but many are skeptical if it can be duplicated. “Fed-Ex” is tremendous with the glove but is continuing to develop his skills with the stick.

The starting pitching staff still has a ton of question marks. Clayton Kershaw is the rock and the ace and hopes to carry the load. If Zack Greinke’s elbow is healthy and loosens up, he may prove to be a formidable No. 2.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has thrown effectively this spring, and despite his unwillingness to throw extra bullpen sessions as scheduled, he could be solid for Los Angeles moving forward. Ryu pitched four innings on Thursday, allowing no hits or walks while striking out four batters.

Josh Beckett has had a solid spring and has been productive since arriving in LA. Many hope that Chad Billingsley can return to his All-Star form of 2009, although his finger injury this spring and elbow problems last year may impact his performance.

With the surplus of starting pitchers still on the roster, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang and Ted Lilly may either be forced to move to relief duties or endure a stint on the disabled list.

As for the pen, Brandon League, to the chagrin of many fans, is poised to be the closer. Kenley Jansen and Ronald Belisario are expected to be solid set-up men. League practically imploded Friday night, surrendering two hits, a walk and an earned run before being bailed out by Steven “Paco” Rodriguez.

As for management, skipper Don Mattingly will certainly begin the season on the hot seat. Despite the injuries the Dodgers have suffered early on, president Stan Kasten will expect Donnie Baseball to produce wins.

Even with the injuries and the holes in the infield, the Boys in Blue have the potential to perform well. However, as reflected above, there are many “ifs” that need to go positively for this to work. If Mattingly can gather his troops and create some chemistry, the Dodgers could be a contender.

But, with all the holes and question marks, this squad certainly isn’t worth $223 million.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers are less than a week away from their Opening Day game against the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

Some of the Dodger players haven’t seen an extended period of time on the field because of injury and other issues. But, there have been some standouts that fans should be aware of—if they aren’t already.

Some of these players might not make the 40-man roster, because of lack of spots for them, and will have a few more years in the Dodgers farm system before getting called up.

Other players are newly acquired transactions that performed well in the Cactus League.

Here are five Dodgers that surprised fans through spring training:  

Begin Slideshow

On paper, the Los Angeles Dodgers look great.  When you look at their current roster, it looks menacing and capable of winning the National League West.  But let’s be honest: The team has plenty of question marks going into the 2013 season, and player injuries are at the top of that list.

Outfielder Carl Crawford has yet to take a spring training at-bat. He will most likely start the season on the DL with continual setbacks to his reconstructed elbow.

Now, to make matters worse, newly acquired starting pitcher Zack Greinke has become unable to pitch due to elbow inflammation.  And no one yet knows how he will respond to a platelet-rich plasma shot he received to hopefully settle the issue down.  

You also have to factor in that Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, Andre Ethier, Jerry Hairston Jr., Javy Guerra, Dee Gordon, Mark Ellis and Juan Uribe all spent time on the DL at one point or another last season.

Sure, they look great on paper, but as it stands right now, it’s still a lot star power with a lot of question marks.  And if you’re a Lakers fan as well, you know exactly what I’m talking about.  

Don’t get me wrong, it’s great to see a new ownership group step in and make the kind of moves that Magic Johnson and his fellow group of owners made.  You have to admire their passion for putting a winning team on the field, for bringing so much star power to Los Angeles and for taking the honors for having the highest payroll in all of Major League Baseball.  

But you also still have to look at the facts: The current Dodgers team is riddled with uncertainty, and if it can’t stay healthy, 2013 could be a long year for the boys in blue.  

Follow @GaryOusdahl

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With Adrian Gonzalez entering his first full season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, a lot is expected out of the first baseman going into 2013.

Gonzalez came over to the Dodgers last year in a massive blockbuster trade with the Boston Red Sox that sent him, along with pitcher Josh Beckett, injured outfielder Carl Crawford and utilityman Nick Punto to Los Angeles in exchange for first baseman James Loney and four prospects.

Gonzalez played well in 36 games with the Dodgers last season (.297/.344/.441, three home runs, 10 doubles, 22 RBI and 12 runs scored in 145 at-bats), but has clearly been missing his power stroke ever since being dealt from the Padres to the Red Sox in 2011.  

Now back in the National League, I expect to see huge things out of Gonzalez’s bat this season and am confident that he will find his power stroke once again.

Not that he wasn’t surrounded by bats in Boston but, with a completely revamped, potent Dodger lineup this year, Gonzalez will have plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities.

But, at 30-years-old, has he lost some pop in his bat?

Remember, before Gonzalez was shipped off to the Red Sox, he played in cavernous Petco Park in San Diego and still managed to hit over 30 home runs per year and had close to four straight seasons of 100-plus RBI (he had 99 in 2009).

With his consistent swing and above-average patience at the plate, I’m sure the native Southern Californian will have no problems regaining his stroke in Los Angeles and should put up some huge numbers for the Dodgers in 2013.  

What do you think? How will A-Gon do this year?

Follow @GaryOusdahl

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

If there’s a team in Major League Baseball that’s well-equipped to deal with an injury to a starting pitcher, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers.

But that doesn’t mean they should have no worries about the news regarding Zack Greinke. They have big plans for 2013, and he’s a big part of said plans. Now it sounds like he may be a faulty part.

Though Greinke recently had to leave camp to get his right elbow checked out by the club’s physician, the word on Monday was that the damage wasn’t serious. Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported that the diagnosis was mere inflammation and that Greinke was treated accordingly.

But that was then. This is now, and the word now is much less encouraging.

Here’s Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times:

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly had told Shaikin that he expected Greinke to be ready for an April 2 assignment against the San Francisco Giants. In addition to throwing water on that idea, Greinke is also refusing to play at optimism.

“I don’t know. I don’t know how it’s supposed to feel,” he said when asked how his elbow felt, according to Hernandez. “I haven’t talked to the trainers yet. We’ll see. I don’t think I should be telling you too much information about what’s going on. Leave it up to them to tell you that stuff.”

No real surprise here. Honesty, thy name is Zack Greinke!

The Dodgers are surely going to proceed with utmost caution to protect their $147 million investment, as bad elbows have been known to become worse. If there’s a bright side, however, it’s that having to rough it without Greinke wouldn’t make them a dead team walking.

Shaikin noted that the Dodgers won’t need a full starting rotation until two weeks into the regular season, meaning they can give Greinke extra rest before they’ll be missing him.

And even then, the Dodgers wouldn’t necessarily be missing him right away. They have the personnel to cover for him for an extended period of time if it comes to that.

There were rumors during the winter that the Dodgers were going to trade one of their surplus starting pitchers, but no deal materialized and the club went into spring training with eight starting pitchers under contract. So far, Greinke‘s the only one who has been compromised.

Assuming Chad Billingsley‘s right elbow is all clear—he told Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com last week that he’s feeling good—following his issues last year, the Dodgers are going to have him, Josh Beckett and Ryu Hyun-Jin in their starting rotation after Clayton Kershaw. Setting that bunch aside, the Dodgers are left with three guys they can call on to fill in for Greinke.

Contestant No. 1 is probably veteran left-hander Chris Capuano. He had a 3.72 ERA in 198.1 innings pitched last season and was particularly effective at Dodger Stadium with a 3.19 ERA. He’s not a frontline pitcher, but any hurler who can post an ERA in the 3.00s over roughly 200 innings is a fine addition to the back end of any rotation.

Contestant No. 2 is probably Aaron Harang. His starts were adventurous in 2012 thanks to 4.3 BB/9, but he managed to keep his ERA in the 3.60 range for a second straight season. He had only four starts that lasted fewer than five innings in 2012, a very acceptable rate for a back-end starter.

Then there’s Ted Lilly, who is the wild card among the Dodgers’ eight starting pitchers after having left-shoulder surgery in September. He hasn’t pitched since last May, but the early returns in camp are of the positive variety.

“He hasn’t been able to log innings on the field, but the ball’s coming out good,” said Mattingly on Sunday, via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. “When you see Teddy at 88, 89 [mph], he’s feeling good. He’s healthy and he’s bouncing back.”

If Lilly’s shoulder holds for the rest of spring training—knock on wood—indications are that he’ll be put in the starting rotation ahead of Capuano and Harang, with the reason being that Lilly’s last major league appearance came over 10 years ago in 2002.

The Dodgers would be in solid hands if Lilly were to maintain his health as a starter. He generally features good control, and his fly-ball style of pitching makes him a good fit for Dodger Stadium’s cavernous dimensions.

Whether it’s Capuano, Harang or Lilly that would be filling in for Greinke, the Dodgers would still be able to look forward to solid starting pitching. Remember, Dodgers starters ranked third in baseball in ERA last year (see FanGraphs). When the brass added Greinke and Ryu, a weakness wasn’t being fixed. A strength was being augmented.

More likely, this is a club that’s going to live or die by its offense, which must improve on its poor showing last season.

And it should. There are plenty of question marks surrounding the Dodgers offense—the health of Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez’s power, Andre Ethier’s production against southpaws—but a lineup with as many big names as theirs can only be so bad.

This year’s offense surely won’t be worse than last year’s offense, which ranked 26th in baseball in runs scored. A transformation into the 1927 Yankees may not be in the cards, but an emergence from the depths sure is.

The Dodgers managed to win 86 games with very good starting pitching and a not-so-good offense last year. With or without Greinke, they’re in line to win more games if their starting pitching holds steady and their offense improves. Taking him out of the equation thus wouldn’t result in the team as a whole being immediately removed from the postseason equation.

But there’s the rub (apologies for a second Shakespeare reference). Making the postseason would be nice, but these Dodgers are looking to make it there and then to the World Series. It’s going to be more difficult for them to do so if they don’t have a healthy Greinke.

Greinke is not a Chris Carpenter-esque postseason hero, as he only has three postseason starts to his name that come with a 6.48 ERA. But an ace is an ace is an ace. That’s what the Dodgers paid $147 million for when they signed Greinke, and their faith in him was not misplaced.

Is Greinke ever going to get back to his Cy Young form from the 2009 season, when he won 16 games for a bad Kansas City Royals team with a 2.16 ERA? That’s unlikely, but this is still a guy who’s pitched over 200 innings in four of the last five seasons with a 3.16 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over the last three seasons that ranks eighth among qualified starters (FanGraphs). This is also a guy who pitched at least seven innings and gave up two runs or fewer in 15 of his 34 starts last year.

Aces are a good thing to have in October, and the Dodgers will have two very good ones if Kershaw and Greinke are both healthy and ready to go. They have the talent to be what Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain were to the 2010 San Francisco Giants, a tantalizing prospect indeed.

This is a prospect that hinges on Greinke‘s right elbow surviving the season, and right now he doesn’t want anybody thinking that his elbow isn’t a question mark. That’s the Dodgers’ cue not to run him out to the mound until he can swear that he’s good.

“Good enough” shouldn’t be good enough for the Dodgers. They have hopes and dreams to watch out for. Not to mention a $147 million investment.

To this end, the Dodgers can trust Greinke to be honest about his elbow. He’s proved that he’s honest about anything, a fine trait.

Now the Dodgers must hope that Greinke can prove that he’s a quick healer too.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com