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Brad Lidge was signed by the Washington Nationals this week for a million dollars over one season. A bargain compared to what some closers have picked up during this offseason. But did the Nationals make the right move?

The role of closer in Major League Baseball has evolved over the last few years into an elite spot on the roster, worthy of much talk, praise and big, fat contracts. But statistically, and historically, it simply doesn’t make any sense.

Evidence such as this study from 2004 by David W. Smith indicates that teams that have held a lead after eight innings have won their games 95 per cent of the time. This has held true throughout the history of baseball.

In fact, the worst record he could find in a century of numbers was the 1978 Seattle Mariners, who still sealed the deal in the ninth 80.4 percent of the time.

This off-season has seen a bunch of closers moving around and signing significant contracts. The biggest was Jonathan Papelbon signing a four-year, $50 million contract with Philadelphia.

We’ve also seen Ryan Madson sign with Cincinnati for one year, $10 million, Heath Bell sign with Miami for three years, $27 million, and Joe Nathan sign with Texas for $14.5 million over two years.

Overall, I’ve noted 10 closers signed for an average of $7.18 million per year in just this free-agent season alone. 

But given that a typical team will win virtually every game they play where they enter the ninth with a lead no matter who is pitching, this seems like a massive waste of money.

The Jonathan Papelbons, Mariano Riveras and John Axfords of the baseball world are put on a pedestal and worshipped for their prowess at slamming the door at the end of the game. And they are paid accordingly.

But it simply doesn’t matter.

Given that teams carrying the lead into the final inning are almost certainly going to win, regardless of who is on the mound, it makes absolutely no sense for teams to be rolling truckloads of money up to the doors of these guys.

Better to spread the money around to a stable of decent arms in relief and just pick the guy with the most rest.

Getting Lidge for only a million a year is pretty cheap for a proven arm, even if he’s past his prime at age 35. That’s a third of the average MLB salary and for a guy filling a high-profile, but statistically irrelevant role, that’s the right price.

Papelbon’s $12.5 million a year? Not so much.

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More than other team sports, baseball grants its players longevity.

Being on the wrong side of 35 isn’t such an awful thing. I could muster a formidable 25-man roster comprised strictly of MLB players who are of that age or older.

Time eventually reduces all athletes, but elite baseball players often sustain their level of play as their hair grays.

Veterans of the game adjust to adversity. They continue to contribute even when agility, bat speed and arm strength deserts them.

It is a sport unintentionally engineered to preserve its athletes.

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The Winter Meetings just ended this week and as expected, Brian Cashman made zero significant moves other than bringing back their own free agents. The Yankees may be interested in Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes, but as of right now, they have not made any moves.

The 2011-2012 offseason was dominated by first basemen, such as Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but the New York Yankees already have Mark Teixeira and had no need for either of them.

The Yankees need pitching to push them over the top to legitimate World Series contenders, and the 2012-2013 free agent class is full of great starting pitchers. The Yankees also have other important needs, such as right field and the left side of the infield.

This class of free agents is loaded, and Brian Cashman would be smart to take advantage of this fact and go out and make at least one huge deal. Let’s see who they will be targeting in the next offseason.

It may be a little early, but we all love predictions, so let’s look ahead at next offseason targets for the New York Yankees.

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The New York Yankees bullpen has received limitless hype and praise early in the season, and they are already being dubbed as the best in MLB—as well as the best in NY since 1996.

While the group has accomplished nothing to this point, this does not mean that a proper nickname should not be added to the front of the hype machine.

It took mere hours for “Miami Thrice” to be created, and “The Fab Five” represents a team that never won a championship in its short time together.

The Philadelphia Phillies already had “the best rotation in MLB history” on April 5th—so there is plenty of precedent to this trend.

I would normally ignore the desire to overreact and create catchy names for the Yankees trio, but then “Jo-So-Mo” suddenly jumped out of Michael Kay’s mouth and into my disappointed ear drums.

While my list is certainly no Mona Lisa, something had to be done in order to find a better option than the Yankees broadcast team could come up with on their own.

Here is a list of 10 possibilities I’m throwing onto the table, and it’s up to all of you to pick your favorites—or add others into the discussion.

Let’s have some fun with this Yankee fans!

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Before the start of the season, I wanted to see which pitchers statistically had the best fastballs, curveballs, sliders, cutters, changeups and splitters of the 2010 season.

Here are a look at the top cutters of the 2010 season. A few notes:

The Pitch Value data was created by Fangraphs.com. I will be using the statistic, wCT, which denotes the runs above average for a particular pitch—in this case a fastball.  

The “wCT” stat benefits starting pitchers and pitchers who throw a certain pitch more often. Because the more often you throw a pitch, the better the chances are of it being successful.

Sometimes, PITCH/FX does not sort pitches into the right category. For example, Brandon Morrow’s splitter was categorized as a fastball.

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“Don’t pay for saves.”

I’m sure that’s a mantra that most, if not all, fantasy baseball players have heard when it comes to drafting closers. The standard logic behind that belief is solid. The early rounds are always used for building the foundation of your offense and choosing stud starting pitchers to help you in wins and strikeouts.

Closers are good for bolstering ERA and WHIP in small doses as well as being your only source of saves. So many closers come into the league on the waiver wire due to injuries and failed attempts, its usually not smart taking closers in the first eight to nine rounds in drafts.

The problem with that logic is that it doesn’t take into account closers that are available a round or two after average. If Mariano Rivera, who typically goes in the late eighth round, is available in the ninth and 10th rounds, he is much more valuable than normal and is worth taking because of the added value.

This concept applies even better with auction drafts where closers are one of the last positions drafted, leaving less money available to spend on them. If Jonathan Papelbon is typically worth $10, he is much more valuable if he can be acquired for $7 late in the auction. The extra $3 is money that can be used to pick up a player like Craig Kimbrel or Brad Lidge. The money you save by pouncing on undervalued closers has a compounding effect on the rest of your team, allowing you to pick up better players than normal later in the draft.

Let’s go ahead and move on to my preseason rankings. For the preseason edition, I’ve included Average Draft Position (ADP) and Average Auction Value (AAV) next to each player. These values come from ESPN.com’s Live Draft Results page from Friday, March 25th.

Don’t forget to check out The Fantasy Fix 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit!

Rock Solid

1) Mariano Rivera (76.0, $12.0)
2) Heath Bell (77.0, $11.6)
3) Joakim Soria (85.5, $10.8)
4) Brian Wilson (65.7, $13.9)

Above is the consensus top four on most websites (they are also my top four for the year, although I’ve got them in a slightly different order). I put Rivera as the No. 1 closer starting the year as a result of his amazing consistency over the years and the 1.80 ERA/0.83 WHIP combo he put up throughout last year.

Bell’s ADP and AAV are basically identical to Rivera’s and he could easily be considered No. 1A to Rivera’s No. 1. Bell’s 1.20 WHIP last year led me to give the very slight edge to Rivera.

As good of a closer Soria is, I worry about the Royal’s offense and their ability to get leads for him to close out. The lesser number of opportunities put him at No. 3.

Wilson would be ahead of all of them for me, if not for the news that he may miss time at the beginning of the year with a mild oblique strain. Sergio Romo will likely be the guy if Wilson does miss time, and may be worth a late round pick if you choose to take Wilson.

5) Carlos Marmol (94.2, $9.8)
6) Jonathan Papelbon (98.8, $9.4)
7) Francisco Rodriguez (111.1, $8.0)

All three of these guys are well established as closers and have plenty of leash in case of early struggles. They also put up sub-1.20 WHIP numbers last year and are projected for sub-3.25 ERA and sub-1.25 WHIP this year.

I put Marmol at the top of this tier because of his crazy high K/9 rate the last couple years. Papelbon then goes ahead of Rodriguez because of the quality of defense behind Papelbon and the advantage of having the Red Sox offense giving him more opportunities.

A Little Shaky

8) Joe Nathan (120.3, $5.5)
9) Neftali Feliz (94.9, $10.8)
10) J.J. Putz (137.7, $6.1)
11) Huston Street (147.8, $5.0)
12) Chris Perez (151.0, $4.9)

As we go further down this list, the rankings are more about values and less about who is the better pitcher, leading me to place Joe Nathan at the top of this group. Nathan is coming off an injury that had him sit out the vast majority of last year, leaving his previous owners gun shy on drafting him again this year. Going in the 13th round or for about $5, he’s the best value of all the closers in this group and could easily be a top five closer this year.

I moved Neftali Feliz down to nine after all the talk of him entering the starting rotation making him a high risk pitcher, either as a starter or a closer. I will be staying away from him until his role is figured out.

Putz is returning to the closer role in his first year with the Diamondbacks, a role that he was successful in with Seattle in 2006 and 2007. Those two years he had 76 saves in 150 innings pitched with 186 strikeouts, a 1.80 ERA, and 0.80 WHIP. If he’s even close to those numbers this year, he will clearly be a top 10 closer and be a very nice pickup in the 14th round or for $6.

Huston Street has a long leash in Colorado and will get you a good number of saves as well as decent ERA and WHIP numbers. His ERA was a little high last year at 3.61, but if he can come in anywhere below there, he won’t hurt your team ERA.

Chris Perez gave up just two earned runs in 32 innings pitched over the final three months of the season and has the full year to close. It’s hard to imagine him keeping up that torrid pace, but anything close will still be a very successful year.

13) Jonathan Broxton (120.3, $7.2)
14) John Axford (151.6, $5.0)
15) Andrew Bailey (157.9, $5.7)
16) Ryan Franklin (174.6, $3.0)

Each player in this group has a specific concern that could hinder his success.

Broxton last year had high ERA and WHIP numbers (4.04/1.48) and a noticeable decline in strikeouts and saves. If you can get him at $5 or less late in a draft, go ahead and take him; otherwise, he’s a stay away for me.

This will be John Axford’s first full year of closing for the Brewers and his nerves could get the best of him. His 2.48 ERA last year will almost surely rise in full time work at the closer spot.

Andrew Bailey’s spring has been plagued with news of an oblique injury and may miss opening day. He’s not a high strikeout guy, but had great ERA and WHIP numbers last year. If he misses time, Brian Fuentes will likely be the guy and a good source of early cheap saves.

Ryan Franklin is the king of the ugly save but he gets the job done. The defense behind him does a lot of the work, but he does a good job keeping hitters off-balance.

17) Matt Thornton (170.9, $3.4)
18) Jose Valverde (156.6, $4.1)
19) Brad Lidge (170.7, $3.5)

Matt Thornton has been named the closer to start the year for the White Sox over Chris Sale. The 34-year-old southpaw has posted sub-2.75 ERAs and sub-1.10 WHIPs the last three years and has great upside this year in his first year as a closer.

Jose Valverde had 26 saves in just 29 save opportunities and has shown the skill set to close 40+ games in a season. If the Tigers offense can give him more opportunities, his saves should surely rise from the mid-20s the last two years to the mid-30s or even better.

Two years ago, Brad Lidge had an atrocious 7.21 ERA and blew 11 saves, but managed to bounce back last year with a better ERA and WHIP but less saves. The saves should go up quite a bit with the Phillies‘ stud rotation and hopefully the ERA and WHIP will stay low.

In Case of Emergency

20) Drew Storen (184.8, $3.3)
21) Francisco Cordero (153.8, $3.9)
22) Leo Nunez (207.4, $2.0)
23) Brandon Lyon (212.0, $1.6)
24) Kevin Gregg (215.2, $1.6)

Drew Storen has the most upside of anyone on this list, but the Nationals say they will go with closer-by-committee to start the year and Storen has not thrown well in spring training.

Francisco Cordero has Aroldis Chapman waiting in case he were to have a bad stretch and his high ERA and WHIP numbers don’t help his cause.

Leo Nunez is the closer in Florida due to total lack of opposition in the bullpen; he’s fine for a couple bucks at the end of the draft.

Brandon Lyon has yet to prove he can close on a consistent basis and put up good numbers.

Kevin Gregg saved 37 games last year despite a high 1.39 WHIP and is a career 4.03 ERA pitcher.

All of these guys are okay for a couple bucks, but don’t be afraid to dump them when someone better emerges elsewhere.

Other Situations To Watch

– Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
– Jake McGee/Kyle Farnsworth
– Brandon League/David Aardsma
– Fernando Rodney/Jordan Walden
– Joel Hanrahan/Evan Meek
– Frank Francisco/Jon Rauch

Don’t forget to check out our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Written by Jim Dingeman exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com

Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter   @thefantasyfix

or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Team Preview: Chicago White Sox Projections & Auction Values

2011 Fantasy Baseball First Base Showdown: Joey Votto Vs. Adrian Gonzalez

2011 Fantasy Baseball Team Preview: Oakland Athletics Projections & Auction Values  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Mariano Rivera is 41 years of age, but he is still playing at an incredibly high level.

Last year, he had an ERA of 1.80 in 61 appearances with 33 saves. In fact, in his last eight seasons, he has only had an ERA over two, just once. That’s pretty magnificent for a guy that was supposed to retire three years ago.

Overall, he has played 16 MLB seasons and has compiled a 2.23 ERA and 559 saves. He also has been to the All-Star game a whopping 10 times. He also has won the AL Rolaids Relief award five times. To top it off, he leads all active pitchers in career ERA and is 13^th in MLB history.

However, how long will he be able to keep up the production?

In the past three years, I have noticed a steady incline in his ERA. It obviously has not been a dramatic increase, but it is evident.

Even though he only pitched six less innings in 2010 than in 2009, he threw 27 less strikeouts. It seems remarkable that those are the only numbers that have actually shown signs of age, but it might be enough for me to place a red flag on Rivera.

In fantasy baseball, closer is a deep and also somewhat meaningless position. You can find closers for miles upon miles that are usable.

However, I still expect Rivera to have one more plausible season, in the two ERA range, then another declining season in the tank for an over-three ERA. After that, he retires as his contract is up.

Also Check out:

• Ubaldo Jimenez
• R.A. Dickey
• Yadier Molina
• Francisco Liriano
• NL East Preview
• AL East Preview
• NL Central Preview
• AL Central Preview
• NL West Preview
• AL West Preview

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For the first time in several seasons, The New York Yankees spring training campaign is not being dominated by scandal or distraction.

The Bombers’ third baseman, Alex Rodriguez, has consistently been at the forefront of many of these distractions. Whether it’s steroids, divorce, or Madonna, A-Rod and scandal have had a very intimate relationship in the last few years.

But this year things are different; Rodriguez has not had to handle off-the-field issues or being mauled by the media. This is not to say that Alex has stayed completely out of the headlines. During the Super Bowl, Rodriguez was caught being fed popcorn by girlfriend/actress Cameron Diaz. (Is this really news worthy? Well, define news.) In A-Rod’s first meeting with the media during spring training, instead of having to face tough questions Rodriguez sat down, and with a smile on his face, quipped, “Did anybody see the Super Bowl?”

Rodriguez got the whole matter of “Super Bowl-popcorn-gate” out of the way, and since, has not had to focus on anything besides baseball. A-Rod is pleased to have avoided anything extracurricular to confront this spring, as he was not happy with his last three seasons, stating that his production was “unacceptable”. Mind you, in each of those three seasons Rodriguez posted more-than-acceptable numbers with 30+ homeruns and 100+ RBIs.  Alex Rodriguez came into spring training in better shape than last year and certainly in a better state of mind.

The Yankees were by all means not the biggest winners in offseason roster moves. What that means to the team is, besides Rafael Soriano and Russell Martin, there are no new players that are supposed to take on big roles for the Yankees. There aren’t any new playing styles to adjust to and no new egos to handle. What this also means is that, compared to the Boston Redsox who have brought in two all-stars, the Yankees have not really been a focus of other teams and the media alike. Other than the retirement of pitcher Andy Pettitte, the Yankees have lost very little of their team, and if A.J. Burnett can pick it up this season, the Yanks’ rotation could come up with similar production to last year’s.

According to Mariano Rivera, the Yankees are happy to be somewhat under-the-radar this spring, hoping that the team can sneak up on some teams in the upcoming season.  No matter what the media has said, the Yanks are still confident that they can win it all in 2011.

With the A-Rod situation seemingly in order and the team still largely intact, in combination with the recent lack of media attention on the Yankees, it has been a very positive spring for the team. For the firs time in a while they have been allowed to focus on baseball and baseball alone. Hopefully they can use this to their advantage and reclaim the retooled AL East.

This article has also been featured on All Sports New York

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For years now we at Yankees ‘n More have been writing, at one point or another during the given baseball season, that Mariano Rivera seems to be getting better with age. In an excellent post to his 3UP blog at the New York Post, Joel Sherman has the numbers to back up our contention.

From Sherman’s Post:

“But here is yet another remarkable fact about Rivera: He is arguably as good as ever and showing few signs of losing effectiveness (so maybe he really can pitch until he is 50). Over the past three years, Rivera has a 1.64 ERA. It is not only the best in the majors for that period (minimum 150 appearances), but it is the best three-year run at any time in Rivera’s Hall of Fame career. Think about that, his age 38-40 seasons have been better – at least ERA wise – than any other three-year run in his career.

“The second-best was a 1.66 he put up from 2003-05 (his age 33-35 seasons). He put up a 1.71 from 2004-06 (34-36) and a 1.87 from 1997-99 (27-29). The only other time he was under 2.00 for a three-year period was his first three seasons as a full-time closer, 1996-98, when Rivera posted a 1.98 ERA.”

One of these years, of course, Rivera will be done, either by choice or age (finally) catching up to him. Some day, and sooner rather than later, the New York Yankees are going to be forced to find a way to win without one of the greatest advantages the game has ever seen.

Count that as just one more reason why the very thought of declaring an Ivan Nova or Eduardo Nunez the deal-breaker in a potential Cliff Lee trade last season was utter nonsense. When you have a chance to basically lock down another World Series title before Mo drifts off into retirement or ineffectiveness, you don’t let guys like Nova or Nunez stand in the way!

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Baseball fans rejoice; Spring Training started yesterday and the regular season is just a month and a half away.

With the season rapidly approaching, the closer situation of each team is becoming clearer. As one of the most important roles on a baseball team, a closer can be the difference between a good team and a championship one.

Interested to see which teams have shaky and stable closer situations? Read on.

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