Kuzul

Have you ever hear the expression “swing hard in case you hit it”? Well, that is the epitome of Orioles newly acquired third baseman Mark Reynolds.

Reynolds was traded for on Monday morning, just after the first day of Major League Baseball’s winter meetings in Florida began. In return, the Orioles gave away relievers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio (from Triple-A Norfolk).

The pace at which the trade developed was a little bit of a surprise, but the fact that several big names have already inked big deals this early in free agency changed the usual timeline baseball’s free agency takes.

In case you are unfamiliar with Reynolds, all you need to know can been seen by looking at two statistics: home runs and strikeouts.

When stepping up to the plate, there is a good chance he is going to do one or the other. In 499 at-bats last season, Reynolds did one of those two an astonishing 49 percent of the time.

Every player strikes out, but Reynolds has it down to an art form. He has amassed 767 strikeouts in just four seasons, one for every three plate appearances, and has led the league in the category each of the last three seasons.

While the strikeouts and his .198 batting average are far from ideal, his power is something that inevitably general manager Andy MacPhail couldn’t ignore. The Orioles had very little of it in the heart of their lineup last season, and with Adam Dunn signed by the White Sox and Paul Konerko looking like a long shot at this point, the O’s had to look to trade their talent.

With Reynolds, you get a player who is just 26 and has averaged 35 home runs per season over his first three full years in the MLB. That number should eclipse 40 this year, because he gets to play 81 games in Camden Yards’ notoriously short fences.

That is something that people don’t talk about enough: the effect that the Orioles ball park should have. Camden Yards actually allows hitters to hit home runs without having power. How else do you explain Cal Ripken’s 431 home runs?

When you have a batter that actually has that power, Camden Yards can become his best friend.

Add this power to the fact that he fills a huge void at third base, and you can see why this deal needed to be made.

People have already started comparing him to Garrett Atkins, but I believe these two situations are very different. To refresh your memory, Atkins was the first baseman the Orioles signed last season from the Rockies. He was cut after just 44 games due to his .214 average and one home run in that span.

Reynolds is different for several reasons: his age, his previous seasons and his previous team. Reynolds is three years younger and coming off of what can be considered an average year for him. In comparison, Atkins was signed after a terrible year where he hit just nine home runs (he’d averaged 25 in the previous three). 

Also, going back to the point of Camden Yards being hitter-friendly, Atkins played for the Colorado Rockies. Coors Field is infamous for its thin air, which turns pop flies into home runs. How many of Atkins home runs were just pop flies that continued to carry?

At the end of the day, I understand the frustration of Orioles fans: MacPhail seems to be unwilling to overpay players to come to Baltimore, even though it is obvious that it is the only way to convince people to play there.

I’m not saying the Reynolds deal is great, but it is certainly a start.

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Rumor has it that the Orioles have emerged as the front-runners for third-baseman Mark Reynolds.

Buster Olney reported the whispers this morning, confirming what Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman suspected last night.

So far, the only real pieces being discussed in a possible trade are Chris Tillman and David Hernandez, who has been linked to more teams this off-season than Adam Dunn.

Tillman, 22, emerged as one of the Orioles top prospects after coming over from Seattle in the trade that sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners. He made his big-league debut in 2009, and over the course of two seasons has posted a 4-10 record with a 5.63 ERA.

Hernandez, 25, began with the Orioles as a starter, dominating with a extremely deceptive delivery at every level of the minors. He arrived in Baltimore in 2009 also, struggling as a member of their rotation. However, he thrived last season after being moved to the bullpen, and that is where his future almost certainly lies.

It would likely take more than two players to get a deal done for Reynolds, who last season became the first player in Major League history to strike out more than 200 times in three consecutive seasons. Both sources believe that the Orioles side of the deal will be very “pitcher centric.”

One would have to think that Tillman, Hernandez and possibly a lesser known arm, maybe like Ryan Berry or Wynn Pelzer could get the deal done.

The only two other teams really in on Reynolds are the Blue Jays (please God no) and the Padres, who if another set of rumors are true, aren’t actively pursuing the slugger.

Reynolds hit a paltry .198 last season, making him the most sought-after hitter in history to fall short of the Mendoza line. He did, however, crank 32 homers, good for sixth in the N.L. last year. He also drove in 85 runs and walked a career-high 83 times.

Now, on to the news on the Konerko front.

The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec thinks that any interest the Orioles have had in Konerko has been extremely overblown, stating that “the next person I speak to in the organization who feels the O’s have a shot at Konerko would be the first.”

Meaning that the Orioles’ dire need for a power-hitting, corner-infielder simply makes them one of the more plausible scenarios, not necessarily the most likely. Especially in the eyes of the O’s front-office who missed out on Victor Martinez, and low-balled Adam Dunn, who spurned their offer to sign with the White Sox for $16 million more.

The longer Konerko remains a free agent, the more likely it appears that he will re-sign with the White Sox.

In other news outside the Charm City, the Red Sox have apparently agreed to a deal that would bring San Diego first-baseman Adrian Gonzalez to Beantown.

Most believe that this makes the likelihood of them bringing back Adrian Beltre very, very unlikely. 

But imagine if they had them both.

This makes me think the O’s might make a serious run at Beltre. They could use a third-baseman a tad bit more than a guy at first anyways. Brandon Snyder should get his chance this season, and he could thrive, but I know one thing—he certainly won’t thrive at third-base, where the Orioles best minor league hope is strikeout king Brandon Waring and on again-off again third-baseman Billy Rowell.

Beltre just makes too much sense to not consider.

He makes your team instantly better, gives you a legitimate middle-of-the-order presence, and offers solid defense. Not to mention the fact that he gives the O’s some star-power and takes some of the attention off of their young core.

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It can be a confusing time of the year in Major League Baseball, what with arbitration offers, non-tender candidates, Type A and B free agents, waiver claims and the Rule 5 draft.  So it can be tough to decipher what is happening with the team you support and whether there is any truth to the rumors that can emerge.

The Blue Jays are no different, especially with the secrecy that surrounds Alex Anthopoulos’ moves.  This is what has happened so far and what could be happening.

Dustin McGowan has re-signed with the Toronto Blue Jays for a one-year, $450,000 deal.  The former first-round pick hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2008 due to a series of injuries.  But with this deal, it gives hope that the hard-throwing pitcher will make his return to the mound at some point in 2011.

The Blue Jays are reported by MLB Trade Rumors to be interested in acquiring Mark Reynolds from the Arizona Diamondbacks.  While negotiations with the team to acquire their other star, Justin Upton, seemed to go nowhere, there is a chance that the third baseman could be had for a much more reasonable price.

Arizona as a team, led the league in strikeouts last year, by a large margin, and Reynolds had the most on his team.  So it is understandable that Arizona would be pursuing a contact hitter in return for the power hitter.

It is also rumored that the Blue Jays are pursuing relievers Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier.  The Jays bullpen is up in the air after both Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs turned down their arbitration offers, though Jason Frasor will be returning after accepting his offer.

Both RHP Jeremy Accardo and OF Fred Lewis were not tendered contracts by the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2011 season, making them free agents.

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According to a report from FOX Sports columnist Ken Rosenthal, the Toronto Blue Jays are among the teams that are inquiring about third baseman Mark Reynolds availability.

Reynolds, who holds the National League (NL) record for strikeouts in a season with 223 in 2009—and has led the league in strikeouts each of his three full years in the show, appears to be on the Blue Jays radar as a possible replacement for Edwin Encarnacion, who was claimed off waivers from the Oakland Athletics.

“The Sheriff” is just plain and simple a run producer. In his first 15 games as a pro, he drove in 14 runs.

However, last season was an epic struggle for Reynolds. On the positive side, he led the NL in walks with 83, but on the negative he again led the league in strikeouts with 211.

Even worse, he is the only player ever in the majors to finish a season with a higher strikeout total than their batting average (211 Strikeouts versus 198 batting average x 1000).

A plus with Reynolds is the obvious that he can play both first and third, giving the Jays some more versatility versus different pitching teams. One night they could have Bautista at third and Reynolds at first, or the next night have Lind at first, Reynolds and third and Bautista in right field.

If you can’t tell, I’m trying to take a negative and put a positive spin on it, but aside from his home run totals, nothing about Reynolds makes you think he’s much better than Encarnacion was.

In 141 games at third base, Reynolds committed 18 errors last season, and two season previous, committed a league high 34 errors at the position, albeit, it was second year in the league without much experience prior.

Last season, Reynolds in 498 at bats hit 32 home runs and drove in 85 runs, scored 79 runs, walked 83 times and stole seven bases, while striking out 211 times. Last season, he stole 24 bases, but this season, the speed was gone in Reynolds game.

What could the Diamondbacks want for Reynolds? If I were a betting man—and judging on how high of a price they are demanding for Justin Upton, I truly believe the D’Backs will want two top 12 level prospects and another top 30 prospect in return. They will be looking for a pitcher or two, and possibly an infield prospect.

A package that could make sense to me is Chad Jenkins or Henderson Alvarez, David Cooper and Brad Emaus for Reynolds.

That’s just the reality of the situation, but you never know, Reynolds being the worst average hitter in the league may really decrease his value for all I know.

I just give the facts and speculate a little, I’m not a fly on the wall in Alex Anthopolous’ office—as much as I’d love to be one right now.

Thoughts on Reynolds in a Jays uniform?

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When Gus Zernial of the Chicago White Sox and Roy Smalley of the Chicago Cubs won the inaugural Dave Kingman Award way back in 1950, the level of analysis that went into the award was pretty primitive. 

Did they guy hit a lot of home runs? If so, did he have a really low batting average and also a strangely low RBI total? 

Okay, good. Here’s your Dave Kingman Award. 

As baseball enjoyed its statistical revolution of the last 30 years, the Kingman analysis became greatly enhanced. To home runs and on-base percentage we were able to add runs created, OPS, OPS+, adjusted batting runs, WAR, and a host of other offensive statistics, to say nothing of the tacitly present defensive factor, measured by fielding runs, plus/minus, ultimate zone rating, and defensive WAR. 

Indeed, the statistical revolution has brought us into a new era of Dave Kingman analysis, which is really great, because there have certainly been season in which the Kingman candidates have abounded, and simple reference to home runs and on-base percentage haven’t given us the necessary information we’ve needed to parse the Pedro Felizes and the Chris Youngs. 

Where we’ve needed more, we’ve gotten it. 

And so it is, then, that we turn our attention to the 2010 Dave Kingman Award, with an eye towards determining, once again, who in Major League Baseball more than any other player was truly doing the least with the most. 

Let’s have a look: 

Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks 

Reynolds will perpetually be a Kingman candidate because of his traditionally high home run and strikeout rates, combined with his traditionally low batting average. This season was no different for the Diamondbacks third baseman, as he hit 32 home runs, but managed only a .198 batting average with 211 strikeouts. 

After becoming the first player ever to strike out 200 times in 2008, he became the first player ever to do it twice in 2009, and in 2010 became the first player ever to do it three times. 

Reynolds was particularly bad in 2010, however. After driving in 102 RBI and scoring 98 runs in 2009, those numbers dropped to 85 and 79. He also had a 150 hits in 2009, and that number dropped to a shocking 99 hits in 596 plate appearances in 2010. The adage regarding strikeouts being just as detrimental to a player as any other out does not apply, it would seem, to Mark Reynolds. 

Brother needs to put some bat on some balls. 

Nevertheless, Reynolds remains just outside of being considered a Kingman clone for a simple reason: in 145 games, Reynolds took 83 walks in 2010, which raised his OBP a surprising 122 points above his batting average. 

There is value there, and while it is not great, it is enough to keep him out of the inner Kingman circle. 

Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays 

Everything we just said about Mark Reynolds pretty much goes for Carlos Pena. He had the same curious combination of below .200 average and above .300 OBP, he hit a shocking number of home runs for a guy who doesn’t seem to make contact with the ball all that often, and he finished with fewer than 100 hits in 144 games. 

Pena is also a pretty bad defensive player, though this is not his reputation. Nevertheless, in this season, he is too good to win the Kingman. 

Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays 

It is simply unbelievable that Adam Lind could have consecutive seasons as disparate as the ones he had in 2009 and 2010. Lind went from 35 home runs, 114 RBI, and a .305/.370/.562 to 23 home runs, 72 RBI, and a .237/.287/.425 without even seeing a significant decrease in playing time. He scored almost 40 fewer runs in 2010 (93 vs. 57) and had 44 fewer base hits. 

I mean, what in the name of Jonny Gomes 2006 is going on here? 

In any other season, Lind would likely have walked away with the Dave Kingman Award handily with 23 home runs and a .287 on-base percentage. Throw in his -8.65 adjusted batting runs (second worst for any major leaguer with over 20 home runs) and his 0.1 WAR (wow), and he’d be a shoo-in. 

As it is, he isn’t even the best Kingman candidate in the American League, nor is he the best candidate (spoiler alert) on his own team…

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles 

There are certain things that baseball fans never understand, certain pieces of conventional wisdom that all baseball insiders follow but baseball outsiders can’t comprehend. 

For me, this is that thing: why is it that from time to time a team with no hope of making the playoffs will have a veteran player drastically over-achieve their career performance during the first half of the season and not immediately sell high on that player. 

This year we saw that with two players: when Carlos Silva came out of the gate lights out for the Chicago Cubs, winning his first eight games, the Cubs sat idly by patting themselves on the back for having found such a diamond in the rough. 

Even when it became clear that the Cubs season was going to be a train-wreck (I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say mid-May even though, for me, it was mid-March) and they were going to be dealing some players, they held on to Carlos Silva like he was found money. 

Had it been me, as soon as he got to 5-0 and I would have been on the horn with every general manager in baseball offering to give him up to any team willing to take his salary off my hands. When a guy like Silva (career WHIP: 1.397) comes out and looks like the next Derek Lowe for two months, you Sell Sell Sell!!! 

The other player we saw that with in 2010 was Ty Wigginton. Hey look, what do I know? There is a chance that when the 30 year old Wigginton came out and hit .288 with a .934 OPS over the first two months of the season with 13 home runs, 32 RBI, and 23 runs scored on the worst offensive team in baseball, it meant that he had finally figured things out. 

Had it been me, though, again I would have been on the horn with every team in baseball that needed a corner infielder for the fourth, fifth, or sixth spot in their lineup. If you think the Orioles couldn’t have gotten a tasty Double-A pitching prospect, or even a middle infield defensive specialist, in return for the hot hitting Wigginton from a desperate playoff-cusp team, you’re crazy. 

And what, possibly, were the Orioles holding him for? Was the 2011 season going to be built around this guy? 

As it was, the Orioles held on to Wigginton, and enjoyed the business end of a four month stretch from June 1st to the end of the season in which he hit .231 with a .640 OPS and nine home runs the rest of the way. Well play, Mr. Angelos, well played. 

Not only did the Orioles not get anything in return for two months of Wigginton hotness, they also found themselves in possession of a Kingman candidate. 

Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs 

The 2010 National League Dave Kingman Award, and 2010 Major League Baseball Kingman Finalist, must be Aramis Ramirez of the Chicago Cubs. 

Not only did this guy suck on both sides of the ball, but he also $16.75 million to do it. 

As they say in melodramatic action movies when either an infectious disease or an object from space threatens to kill everyone on the planet: 

My. God. 

That Aramis Ramirez didn’t suffer one of the worst full seasons of all time is a testament to his second half. We here at BaseballEvolution.com have an Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Award for the player who tails off the most after a great first half; in 2010, Ramirez was the bizarro Alex Gonzalez. 

On July 8 of this season, just days before the All Star Break, Ramirez had a .195 batting average with a .254 OBP and a .350 slugging percentage. To that point, through 59 games, A-Ram had nine home runs, 30 RBI, 18 walks and 52 strikeouts. 

Aramis was downright respectable in the second half, though, hitting 16 home runs, 13 doubles, and a triple while batting .285 with an .880 OPS the rest of the way. 

Imagine: despite that performance, he was still our Dave Kingman Award Finalist for the National League. The reason why is simple enough: on the season as a whole, Ramirez finished with the third fewest adjusted batting runs of any player with over 20 home runs in baseball, and fewest in the National League, with -7.93. He enjoyed (or didn’t enjoy) a negative WAR at -0.7, and his .294 on-base percentage was still terrible. 

Indeed, it was a year of which Dave Kingman would have been proud. 

Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays 

Ah, Aaron Hill. I hate to dog an LSU Tiger like this, but Aaron Hill’s 2010 season was a historic one from a “doing the least with the most perspective.” 

Hill’s conventional stats are bad enough on their own to justify giving him the 2010 Kingman Award. Combined with his 26 home runs, Hill had 70 runs, 68 RBI, 22 doubles, 108 hits, and 41 walks. His batting average was a ridiculous .205, and his on-base percentage followed suit at .271. His OPS was a terrible .665, good for a 79 OPS+. 

His more advanced stats were also terrible: 0.8 WAR, -17.5 adjusted batting runs, and 56 runs created. 

But when you go deeper, you realize how terrible these numbers truly are for two reasons. 

First, in 2010 Hill became the sixth player ever to hit more than 25 home runs and have less than -15 batting runs (Hill went 26/-17.5). The other five were Tony Armas (1983), Vinny Castilla (1999), Tony Batista (2003 and 2004), and Jeff Francoeur (2006). 

Important, Armas and Bastista (twice) both won the Kingman Award in their respective years, while Francoeur was the runner-up, to Pedro Feliz, in the controversial 2006 voting. 

But wait… there’s more. 

In 2010, Aaron Hill also became the second player in the history of baseball to hit more than 25 home runs and have an OPS+ under 80, joining only Batista in 2003 (who somehow managed to go 26/73 in 670 plate appearances). 

And there it is: the essence of what it means to win the Dave Kingman Award. A rare combination of home run power and overall valuelessness. At least by this standard, Aaron Hill had the second best Kingman-clone season of all time. 

And for this reason, Aaron Hill is the 2010 Major League Baseball Dave Kingman Award Winner.

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.

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Mark Reynolds and the Arizona Diamondbacks looked like the perfect match last season, when Reynolds finished fourth in the National League with 44 home runs. He also led the league in strikeouts for a second consecutive season, but the Diamondbacks seemed unfazed by that: Reynolds seemed to do everything else well at the plate, getting on base with lots of walks and stealing enough bases (24) to lead the league in power-speed number for the season.

Arizona eagerly signed Reynolds to a three-year extension worth $13.5 million with a fourth-year club option. The deal bought out Reynolds’ final pre-arbitration season at a rate of slightly under $1 million, then promised to pay him handsomely for 2011-12.

The contract now looks like a colossal mistake, or at least that is how the Diamondbacks themselves see it. Reynolds fell short of the Mendoza line in 2010, hitting a meager .198/.320/.433. He struck out in over 40 percent of his at-bats. He had an awful .257 batting average on balls in play, roughly 65 points off his career BABIP of .323.

Reynolds ended up swatting 32 home runs but also led the league in strikeouts for the third straight season–and it was only his third full MLB season. Reynolds’ name has red flags next to it in front offices around the league.

That’s why it is the perfect time for Chicago Cubs GM Jim Hendry to make Arizona GM Kevin Towers an offer. The Cubs enter the off-season knowing they need a corner infielder to fill out their lineup for next season. Towers, meanwhile, has promised to move some of the more whiff-prone members of a lineup that struck out 150 more times than any other team in baseball last season.

If the Cubs dedicate themselves to finding a solid pitcher (reliever Kerry Wood and starter Jorge de la Rosa are two good fits) on the free agent market, Hendry could go to Towers with an offer of (for instance) Jeff Baker and Randy Wells for Reynolds. Wells would be made expendable by the acquisition of the aforesaid pitcher, while Baker looks to be on the outside of the team’s infield picture given the late-season emergence of Darwin Barney and Bobby Scales.

Reynolds would bat either third or sixth in a reasonable Cubs lineup next season, starting at third base and pushing defensively untenable Aramis Ramirez across the diamond to first. One huge positive this season won the substantial improvement in Reynolds’ glove work at the hot corner, which adds to his underrated value.

If the guidance of brilliant hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo can help Reynolds do more on balls in play and perhaps even help him strike out less, the Arizona third baseman could add much-needed punch to the Cubs’ lineup in 2011.

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The past two games for the Arizona bullpen? 6 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball. Yes, I know. It is an amazing feat. One might actually think that a corner has been turned, that things will improve.

This is, indeed, possible, but before there are parties and wagers about how the season is turning around (I doubt people are doing that yet, but still relax), take a deep breath and look at the reality. The bullpen just did that against the Astros, a pathetic excuse for a major league team at the moment.

How bad are the ‘Stros? Offensively, they are terrible. In 26 games, the team has scored a total of only 73 runs, an average of less than three per game. They have hit only nine home runs as a team (remember that BOTH Mark Reynolds and Kelly Johnson have hit as many individually).

They only mustered one run against D’backs’ starter Cesar Valdez in five innings, a pitcher that, previous to Saturday when it was announced that he would start, I had never even heard of.

I was encouraged by the quality of pitches that I saw both Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez throw, but Gutierrez was also aided by a generous strike zone that caused both Hunter Pence and Lance Berkman to argue with the umpire after being punched out by Gutierrez.

Basically, I am happy that the bullpen had success, but I am also a long way from declaring that the problems are over. As fans, we should expect the bullpen to do its job (regardless of how bad things are, that is still the expectation we have), but based on what we have seen so far this season we shouldn’t expect to actually see it.

I hope I am wrong, but I just can’t see it happening. What do you think? Were you encouraged? Do you think it is the start of a new trend? Leave your comments.

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