Kuzul

San Diego was picked to finish dead in 2010 last by every major writer and scribe in the world, including myself. Just goes to show ya that the game is more than stats. The Padres were nothing short of amazing last year, nearly winning the N.L. West.

Pitching wise, this was one of San Diego’s best seasons, with Mat Latos and  Clayton Richard leading the way. Combined with the best bullpen in baseball most of the season, and the slam the door shut policy of closer Heath Bell, the Padres took the Giants right to the wall before conceding the division.  

Even though the Padres have lost 3 of the starters from last years rotation, namely Jon Garland, Kevin Correia and Chris Young, San Diego still looks strong,  adding  former Cincinnati Red and SDSU alum Aaron Harang to a young and hard throwing staff.

What follows is a reasonable extrapolation of what I feel will be the players who break camp and hit the show come the end of March.

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In preparation of the 2011 MLB Fantasy Baseball season, The Fantasy Fix team will preview a team’s pitching rotation each day.

In this third National League West preview, Brett Talley examines Mat Latos and the San Diego Padres.

A quick look at the possible rotation of the 2011 San Diego Padres is pretty uninspiring, but thanks to the pitcher’s paradise that is Petco Park (alliteration!) several guys are worth a second look.

The most interesting name may be the newly acquired Aaron Harang.  While it is unlikely that Petco is going to bring back the 2005-2007 version of Harang (ERA in the high threes, 7-8 K/9, sub-1.30 WHIP), it could bring back the 2008-2009 version (ERA in the mid fours, 7.50ish K/9, 1.40 WHIP). 

At the very least, hopefully Petco will bring better than the 2010 version of Harang (5.32 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 6.61 K/9).  It would seem reasonable that the ballpark will bring his ERA back on the right side of five, but the K/9 and WHIP are something not aided by ballpark, and their improvement is solely up to Harang.  It might be worth a flier in an NL-only league to see if Harang has anything left.

Wade LeBlanc is kind of an uninspiring name despite being a former second round pick because he has never really had that “top prospect” status.  Even his numbers from his first season in the big leagues are fairly uninspiring: 8 wins (25 starts), 4.25 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.78 K/9. 

However, LeBlanc may have simply worn down in late August.  If you take out his final three starts (plus one late relief appearance) and look at the first 22 starts LeBlanc made, you get a 3.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 7.40 K/9. 

Assuming LeBlanc can develop in his second year and improve on his strikeout and walk rates, he could be a solid spot starter in mixed leagues (only when pitching at home, of course) and a reliable guy in NL-only leagues.

Clayton Richard is a more exciting name simply because he was a piece the Padres got back in exchange for sending Jake Peavy to Chicago.

 Continue Reading The Preview>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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The San Diego Padres were the biggest surprise of the 2010 season, as they led the NL West for most of the year only to fall just short of the playoffs. Solid pitching, consistent defense, and timely hitting were the recipe for success for a team with only one true superstar in Adrian Gonzalez.   

As spring training quickly approaches, the team has numerous unanswered questions, including how well will the offense will perform without Adrian Gonzalez. Will the acquisitions of Brad Hawpe, Jason Bartlett, and Cameron Maybin fill the void that Gonzalez left when the team traded him to the Red Sox this off season?

In addition, will the young pitching staff continue to provide the league’s best ERA, despite receiving some of the worst run support in the National League?  

Key Acquisitions:

Jason Bartlett (SS)

Brad Hawpe (1B,OF)

Cameron Maybin (OF)

Orlando Hudson (2B, SS)

Key Losses: 

Adrian Gonzalez – Traded to Boston

Miguel Tejada – Signed with San Francisco  

Players to Target 

The two players who have the most fantasy value in 2011 are closer Heath Bell and starting pitcher Mat Latos. Bell had a career best 47 saves in 2010, posting an impressive 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings with an ERA of 1.93.

Latos emerged as the team’s ace in 2010, posting a 14-10 record with a 2.93 ERA in only his second major league season. I look for Latos to have similar stats in 2011, as he will likely have close to 200 K’s with double digit wins.

I am a little concerned that Bell will not have as  many save opportunities due to the overall struggles the team will likely endure. Bell will still be a top 10 closer, however I would be surprised if he has a third straight season of 40 plus saves.

Sleeper 

Cameron Maybin was drafted tenth overall in the 2005 amateur draft by the Detroit Tigers, and was ranked by Baseball America as the third best hitting prospect in that draft. That promise has yet to come to fruition in the majors, and Maybin was traded to the Marlins as part of the Miguel Cabrera deal. The Marlins in turn traded Maybin to the Padres for a couple of pitchers after the 2010 season.  

The primary reason why Maybin is my sleeper choice for the Padres is his ability to steal bases and score runs.  Although he has yet to display his speed in the majors, Bud Black and the Padres are a running team that will utilize Maybin’s speed.  Look for him to steal 25 bases this year while scoring close to 100 runs, making him a decent sleeper in NL-only leagues.

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1. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

3. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

4. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies

5. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies

6. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

7. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins

8. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

9. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

10. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

11. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees

12. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

13. Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies

14. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

15. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

16. Johan Santana, New York Mets

17. Mat Latos, San Diego Padres

18. Stephen Strasburg*, Washington Nationals

19. C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers

20. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

21. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels

22. Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics

23. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

24. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers

25. Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves

26. Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco Giants

27. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves

28. Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels

29. Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

30. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers

31. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

32. Brett Myers, Houston Astros

33. James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays

34. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians

35. Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays

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The surprising decision of Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies ultimately had a major impact on our early starting pitcher rankings.  He always was going to be considered one of the better options in the league for 2011, but now he appears to be a borderline Top 5 option.  Let’s see where he ultimately falls, as well as all the rest in our updated rankings.

1. Roy Halladay—Philadelphia Phillies
2. Felix Hernandez—Seattle Mariners
3. Tim Lincecum—San Francisco Giants
4. Jon Lester—Boston Red Sox
5. CC Sabathia—New York Yankees
6. Adam Wainwright—St. Louis Cardinals
7. Cliff Lee—Philadelphia Phillies
8. Clayton Kershaw—Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Ubaldo Jimenez—Colorado Rockies
10. Justin Verlander—Detroit Tigers
11. Jered Weaver—Los Angeles Angels
12. Francisco Liriano—Minnesota Twins
13. Josh Johnson—Florida Marlins
14. Chris Carpenter—St. Louis Cardinals
15. Yovani Gallardo—Milwaukee Brewers
16. Cole Hamels—Philadelphia Phillies
17. Zack Greinke—Kansas City Royals
18. Clay Buchholz—Boston Red Sox
19. Mat Latos—San Diego Padres
20. David Price—Tampa Bay Rays

Thoughts

• Cliff Lee posted strong numbers while a member of the Phillies, with a 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 8.36 K/9 over 79.2 innings. Over a full season, that would be his best strikeout rate of his career and while he may not match that mark, seeing him approach the 7.8-8.0 range now appears realistic. Over 220 innings, that’s at least 190 strikeouts. When coupled with his stellar control and good potential for wins, he becomes one of the best options in the league. Jumping back to the NL, he is a certain SP1 now.
• Injury concerns based on the number of innings he threw in 2010 is why Mat Latos fell a few spots in the rankings, but I am not going to drop him out of the Top 20 because of it. All we have heard since Tim Lincecum emerged was that he was going to miss time due to injury and it still hasn’t really happened yet. There’s always a risk when drafting pitchers, and you don’t want to bypass someone simply because of it. As we progress through the offseason things may change slightly, but he’s certainly going to remain a SP2.
• We all know that Gallardo is a pretty big risk, thus far being unable to put it together for an entire season. Still, he has as much talent as anyone in the league and has the potential to have a breakout campaign. He’s a risk, but one I would love to take.
• Is Dan Haren a Top 20 pitcher while in the AL? He’s certainly right on the cusp, but given his past second-half struggles and spending a full year in the AL, I have him just on the outside looking in.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

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After several of years of rumor and speculation, Adrian Gonzalez has finally been traded from the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox. It almost goes without saying, but leaving the cavernous Petco Park and anemic Padres lineup will do wonders for Gonzo’s fantasy production. The real impact of the trade is how it affects those left behind in (or sent to) San Diego.

First up, and most importantly, is Mat Latos. With 14 wins, more than a strikeout per inning, a 2.92 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, Latos was a fantasy stud last year in his first full season in the big leagues. By any measure, Latos was a top-15 starting pitcher last season. But will he be a top-15 guy in 2011, and should he be drafted that way?  

Even before you take into account how pathetic his run support will be with Gonzalez gone, his peripheral numbers indicate that a slight-to-moderate regression may be in order. Latos benefited from a high LOB% of 77.4% (14th highest in the league) and low line drive rate of 14.6% (4th lowest in the league) in ‘10.  

LOB% stands for left on base percentage and shows how “lucky” pitchers were with base runners they allowed being stranded on base. Given, starting pitchers do have a fair amount of control concerning stranded base runners, but it is possible that Latos comes back towards the mean next year.  

As far as line drive rate goes, it is a wildly unpredictable statistic largely out of a pitcher’s control that can change drastically from one year to the next. Because line drives end up as hits more often than any other type of batted ball, an unlucky swing in this number would have a negative effect on Latos’ ERA and WHIP.

Without Gonzalez, the Padres and Latos figure to accumulate fewer wins than they did last season. With a lower win total and a probable uptick in ERA and WHIP, Latos is still a monster strikeout guy that is probably more of a top-20 to top-25 starter who should be drafted somewhere in the 10th or 11th round in 10 team leagues.

The other guy who becomes very interesting as a result of this trade is one of the top Boston prospects sent to San Diego, right-hander Casey Kelly. Kelly is a 21-year-old who was a first round pick out of high school for the Red Sox in 2008. Those in dynasty leagues or deep keeper leagues should at least keep an eye on the potential Padres ace that could make 15-20 starts in Petco each year.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who is semi-embarrassed by his performance in thetantasyfix.com’s fantasy football league.  You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.

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or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!

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The San Diego Padres were without question the surprise of Major League Baseball. Starting the season with the fourth lowest payroll in baseball, they led the National League West for a good portion of the 2010 season before fading in September. Today, their season was laid to rest.

The San Francisco Giants used six pitchers to combine on a four-hit shutout, sending the San Diego Padres home with a 3-0 loss, ending their magical season and knocking them out of the playoffs.

With the Atlanta Braves beating the Philadelphia Phillies earlier in the afternoon, 8-7, the Padres needed the victory to force a two-day playoff. With the win, they would have played the Giants at home to decide the NL West Division winner, and then the loser of that game would play Atlanta for the right to be the NL Wildcard team.

Padres starting pitcher Mat Latos got into trouble in the bottom of the third.With one out, Giants starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez tripled to right field. After striking out Andres Torres, Latos gave up a single to Freddie Sanchez, scoring J. Sanchez with the game’s first run. Aubrey Huff then doubled to deep center, scoring F. Sanchez to give the Giants a 2-0 lead.

With the way the Giants bullpen has pitched over the last two weeks, those two runs would prove to be more than enough.

The Padres put runners on first and second with no outs in the top of sixth, with an Adrian Gonzalez single and walk to Ryan Ludwick. That was it for Jonathan Sanchez, who surrendered to Santiago Casilla.

Casilla induced a 5-4 double play grounder to Yorbit Torrealba, then got Scott Hairston on a fielder’s choice, Torrealba being forced out at second to get out of the inning.

The Padres threatened again in the seventh, Denorfia singling to right, and David Eckstein reaching on Casilla’s error, putting runners at first and second once again. Giants reliever Ramon Ramirez shut the door this time, getting Miguel Tejada swinging at a nasty slider for the third strike, ending the threat.

Closer Brian Wilson came on to close it out in the ninth for the Giants, giving him his 48th save of the year, tying the Giants record for saves in a season, held by Rod Beck.

The Giants will now play host to the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS, while the Philadelphia Phillies play host to the Cincinnati Reds in the other NLDS matchup.

The Padres gave a great effort this weekend, needing to win all three games of the series to force a playoff. Sunday’s effort wasn’t enough, and they’ll be watching from the sidelines, wondering to themselves what could have been.

For continuing baseball updates, you follow Doug on Twitter, @Sports_A_Holic.
Doug is featured writer for Examiner.com and Green Celebrity Network.

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With the 2010 baseball season nearly coming to a close, it’s time to take a look at the National League Cy Young candidates.

The 2010 season has been called “the Year of the Pitcher,” and it all started when Ubaldo Jimenez threw a no-hitter for the Rockies against the Braves on April 17th. Dallas Braden and Roy Halladay then threw perfect games against the Rays and Marlins respectively, and after that came Armando Galaragga’s infamous non-perfect game, where Jim Joyce blew the call on the grounder for the final out. Edwin Jackson then threw a no-hitter against the Rays for the Diamondbacks, and finally, Matt Garza gave the Rays a taste of a no-hitter for themselves when he no-hit the Tigers.

With so much illustrious pitching this year, this is clearly a very tight race, and probably is a tough decision for the voters. The winner of the award will probably come down to whose team makes the playoffs and where their team ends up in the standings.

Sadly, Tim Lincecum, winner of the last two Cy Young awards, doesn’t have a chance this year. His 3.60 ERA currently ranks 24th in the league.

However, being a pitcher’s year, there are naturally plenty beside Lincecum in the NL worthy of winning the esteemed Cy Young award, ranging from energetic rising stars like Mat Latos to wily veterans like Roy Halladay. But the top contenders at this point have to be Halladay of the Phillies, Latos of the Padres, Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals, Josh Johnson of the Marlins, Tim Hudson of the Braves, and Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies.

Mat Latos, in only his 2nd major league season, leads the whole MLB in ERA and WHIP, (2.21 and 0.96) along with 14 wins.

Roy Halladay, who’s just about always in Cy Young conversations, hasn’t disappointed the Phillies. The “Doctor” has piled up 18 wins so far, with a respectable 2.44 ERA, and leading the league in strikeouts with 201.

Like ‘Doc’, Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright has 18 wins, with a nice 2.38 ERA, and is right up there in strikeouts with 191.

Ubaldo Jimenez, also with 18 wins, started the season off with a bang, posting a 2.20 ERA in the first half. While he has cooled off recently. He still has a great 2.79 ERA.

Josh Johnson, a young ace for the Marlins, is having a remarkable year. He has a 2.30 ERA, and should be right up there for the award discussions.

And last but not least, Tim Hudson. The sinker-ball pitcher has had a tremendous year for the Atlanta Braves, sporting a 2.41 ERA, and 15 wins.

All of these gentlemen are worthy of the Cy Young award. If I had to pick a front-runner, I’d pick Mat Latos. The sophomore, as mentioned before still leads the league in ERA and WHIP, while racking up 14 victories. If the Padres can hold on to their division lead, or at least make the playoffs, I’m sure Latos will win it.

Without the spectacular pitching of the young ace, I don’t think the San Diego Padres would have made it even near this far.

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With the playoffs around the corner, potential matchups are being examined. The regular season is winding down and the hunt is heating up. For the Padres and Phillies, two playoff hopefuls, there is a chance the two will face each other in the postseason.

Whether the Phillies and Padres win the wild card or their divisions, there is a good chance they’ll face each other, making for an intriguing matchup.

On one side is the young, up-and-coming San Diego Padres, stacked with solid young pitching. On the other side is the Philadelphia Phillies, a seasoned team that is defending a National League title.

There have been a lot of good things going on in San Diego this year, and they could be the team to dismantle the defending NL champs in a potential playoff series between the two. Here are five reasons why the Padres can knock the Phillies out of playoff contention.

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Let’s take a look at three player’s whose stock rose yesterday, as well as three players whose stock took a hit:

Three Up:

1. Danny Espinoza – Shortstop – Washington Nationals
   To say that he’s gotten his Major League career off with a bang would be an understatement.  He had a strong showing in the Minor Leagues, splitting time between Double and Triple-A (.268, 22 HR, 69 RBI, 80 R, 25 SB), and opened up going 5-11 with one HR prior to Monday’s game.  That’s when he exploded, going 4-5 with two HR, six RBI and two R, including a grand slam against the Mets.  He has the potential to be the Nationals second baseman (or shortstop) of the future and it’s likely that he gets regular AB down the stretch over Adam Kennedy.  At this point, how can they keep him out of the lineup?  Be careful, as he posted a 24.1 percent strikeout rate in the minor leagues, so there is a potential for him to struggle in the average department.  With his potential combination of power (which he’s already shown) and speed (which he has yet to have an opportunity to display), however, he is worth taking a flyer on for the final few weeks if you need a middle infielder.  We’ll be taking a closer look at him in the next few days as well.
2. Mike Stanton – Outfielder- Florida Marlins
   He had struggled for a long time, not just with the long ball either.  Forget about the fact that he had one home run since August 14.  Over that span he had gone 7-66, likely causing many owners to shove him over to their bench.  However, those who stayed patient were rewarded yesterday as he went deep in both halves of the Marlins double header.  For the day, he went 4-9 with two HR, four RBI and two R and hopefully can keep this hot streak going over the final few weeks of the season.  He has too much power to give up on, so just continue to keep him active and hope for the best.
3. Adalberto Mendez – Starting Pitcher – Florida Marlins
   It was an impressive Major League debut, tossing six innings of one-hit baseball against the Philadelphia Phillies to get the victory.  The thing is, he had been spending time as both a starter and reliever at Triple-A (only nine starts in 28 appearances), pitching to a 4.14 ERA.  As a starter, he had a 4.46 ERA with 39 Ks over 40.1 innings.  Over that span he walked 3.7 batters per nine innings, as well.  In other words, while it was an extremely impressive debut, I wouldn’t be running out to claim him on waivers quite yet.

Three Down:

1. Mike Pelfrey – Starting Pitcher – New York Mets
   It had looked like he had righted the ship, but things have once again fallen off for Pelfrey.  After allowing six ER on five H and three BB, striking out one, over 3.2 innings he has given up 10 ER over 8.2 IP in his last two outings.  You want to believe that he’s worth using, given how tremendous he was early in the season, but it’s just impossible to trust him.  His next start comes against the Phillies, who he has a 4.50 ERA against in three starts, and should be on your bench in all formats.
2. Jeff Niemann – Starting Pitcher – Tampa Bay Rays
   Remember when Niemann was among the best pitchers in the league?  In fact, at the All-Star Break he was 7-2 with a 2.77 ERA.  There was a lot of luck involved and things have certainly gone the other way.  Since returning from the DL it has been one debacle after another.  He’s gone 10.0 innings, allowing 23 ER and is now in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation.  If you are in need of a roster spot, he’s certainly eligible to be cut at this point.
3. Mat Latos – Starting Pitcher – San Diego Padres
   A tough break for fantasy owners, as Latos was scratched from his scheduled start last night due to a bout with the flu.  He is expected to take the ball on Tuesday, so let’s hope that’s the case.  If he does, he will remain in line to be a two-start option, though with extremely more difficult matchups.  Today he will draw Clayton Kershaw, with Tim Lincecum going up against him on Sunday.

What are your thoughts on these players?  Who else had a significant change in value from yesterday’s games?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

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