No.
No, Stephen Strasburg should not be an All-Star.
Don’t get me wrong, the kid’s been great since getting called up to the big leagues, but there are just far too many reasons why Strasburg shouldn’t take a trip to Anaheim this July.
Here are just a few of them.
Jonathan Papelbon should be looking over his shoulder. At first considered the rock of the Red Sox bullpen, Papelbon is quickly eroding his own reputation and opening the door for the more consistent, if still more raw, Daniel Bard.
Still, despite certain trade rumors to the contrary, this writer is confident that Papelbon won’t be dealt this season.
That’s not to preclude a move as early as this offseason, particularly if Papelbon continues to struggle shutting the door. Indeed, rather than shortening games, Papelbon’s 2010 performances have begun shortening his career in Boston.
Yet, as nail-biting have been his appearances this year, Papelbon remains one of the elite closers in the game, and he and Bard have emerged as the only solid pieces in a fatigued and aging pen.
Hideki Okajima renders a shadow of his Championship self when he toes the rubber. Since his magical Rookie year as Daisuke Matsuzaka’s tag along, when Okajima posted a 2.22 ERA, Red Sox fans have watched with growing unease as that unexpectedly effective number has risen to an appalling 5.47 in 2010.
Manny Delcarmen, long more dominant early in the season than later, has already started to show his post-May colors. While his 2010 season ERA rests at a tidy 3.03, in June Delcarmen has been knocked around to a 7.36 mark. Over his career, Delcarmen has indeed become increasingly less effective as his innings mount, and if he follows that track, he could post a post-All-Star-break ERA in the neighborhood of 8.00.
After achieving a shocking level of excellence with his 2.84 ERA during the 2009 Red Sox campaign, former Rule 5 Draft pick Ramon Ramirez has regressed to his earlier, more disastrous days with the Rockies and now sadly owns a 4.88 ERA in 2010. Like Delcarmen, innings and late summer months are no friends of Ramirez, and he should only prove less effective as the many, many games roll by.
Thus, regardless of Jonathan Papelbon’s future as a major trade chip and Daniel Bard’s potential as the Sox’ next closer, the 2010 Red Sox are in serious need of relief if they are to contend down the stretch in the suddenly thickly contested American League East.
Now, according to MLBTradeRumors.com, Red Sox Assistant General Manager Ben Cherington commented on Sirius XM Radio that Boston will in fact be looking to upgrade its bullpen before the trade deadline.
Through a combination of team record, individual performance, franchise finances, and individual contract, these 20 relievers are the most attractive candidates to fill Boston’s currently Zombie-filled pen.
On Monday, the Washington Nationals will draft Bryce Harper, a “once in a generation” hitting prospect with their first overall pick in the 2010 amateur draft. On Tuesday, Stephen Strasburg, last year’s top pick and a “once in a generation” pitching prospect, will take the mound in his first ever major league game.
To borrow a phrase from former Redskins’ head coach George Allen: “The future is now.”
I have little doubt that the Nationals will contend in 2011, especially if Chien-Ming Wang returns from injury and regains the form that saw him craft back-to-back 19-win seasons with the Yankees in 2006 and 2007.
But what about 2010? Clearly, the team as presently constituted won’t reach .500 this year, though they will come close. Once the injured players return, a 75-78 win season doesn’t seem unreasonable.
But, we all know that this team is about to get a lot better. Strasburg will join the rotation on Tuesday and when last we heard, Wang is on schedule to join the team sometime after the all-star break.
If general manager Mike Rizzo thinks the team can make a serious run towards the playoffs, he will end the Roger Bernadina experiment in right field and bring in a reliable right fielder in exchange for some prospects. If not, expect right field to continue to be a debilitating sore on the Nationals lineup for the remainder of the season.
Let’s take a look at the team and try to guess what might happen in the coming weeks, beginning with the starting rotation:
Craig Stammen: 1-2, 5.33, 11.0/2.4/4.5, .304/.344/.544, 11 starts
Last season, Stammen’s batting average-against the first two times through the lineup was just .258 before it jumped by 80 points the third time through, so it was thought he would make an ideal long-relief pitcher. This season, however, he’s getting hit hardest in the first two innings.
Stammen was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse after a beautifully pitched game against Cincinnati on Sunday.
It was the right choice.
Luis Atilano: 5-2, 4.24, 9.4/4.3/3.3, .269/.349/.444, 9 starts
Atilano’s ERA was high before Saturday’s game against the Reds, but an outstanding outing brought it down to an acceptable number. That high ERA was the result of three very bad starts (9.64 ERA) intermixed with his five very good ones (2.40 ERA). His 4.3 walks per nine-innings is high, but hits, batting average, on-base and slugging percents allowed are all very good.
And he’s on pace to win 15 games this season. Until he proves he doesn’t belong, he will remain with the Nationals.
John Lannan: 2-3, 4.79, 10.6/4.1/2.9, .294/.367/.440, 11 starts
Lannan’s numbers look bad, but he suffered through some pretty significant elbow pain early in the season. Not counting his first game back against the Rockies in Denver (which tends to skew statistics), Lannan has pitched brilliantly.
In his last three games, Lannan is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA, allowing opponent batters a .205 batting average, .261 on-base percent and a .292 slugging mark.
John Lannan is the model of consistency. He is only one of a handful of starting pitchers with an ERA below 4.00 in the last two seasons. No doubt, 2010 will make three in a row.
Scott Olsen: 2-2, 3.77, 9.4/2.9/6.7, .269/.324/.365, 8 starts
Oh, if Nationals’ starters could just stay healthy. Coming back from elbow surgery, Olsen started the year in the minors and got hammered in his first two starts back with the Nationals. In his last six starts, however, he’s been dominant: 1-0, 2.04, .248/.299/.293.
Olsen should return to the rotation in 10 days, and if healthy, will remain for the rest of the season.
J. D. Martin: 0-1, 2.31, 9.3/0.8/6.9, .250/.265/.542, 2 starts
Last season, Martin was solid as a rookie, going 4-4 with a 4.44 ERA. But like most rookies, he got pasted in his first two starts but from that point on—in his last nine starts last year and his first two this season—Martin has pitched beautifully.
In 77 innings, Martin is 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA, allowing 9.5 hits and 1.9 walks per nine-innings while striking out 5.6. Opponents are hitting just .261/.322/.456 against him.
There is nothing sexy about Martin. But he is a former first-round pick who gets major league batters out on a regular basis.
He deserves a spot in the rotation.
So thus far, here is my Nationals’ rotation for the second half of the season:
1. Stephen Strasburg
2. John Lannan
3. Scott Olsen
4. Luis Atilano
5. J.D. Martin
This, of course, doesn’t include Livan Hernandez (4-3, 2.22, 7.4/2.6/4.6, .222/.275/.363), without a doubt the team’s best starter thus far. That is because I don’t for a second believe that Livan will be with the team after the trading deadline on July 31st , perhaps even before.
No one expected Hernandez, 35, to pitch this well in 2010. He hasn’t finished a season with an ERA under 4.00 since 2005. Since then, he’s been traded, released, and released again.
At 35, Livan is not in the team’s long-term plans, and any day now could return to his form as one of the worst starters in the National League. No doubt Rizzo is gauging his value as trade bait to a contender, perhaps packaging Livan and a prospect or two for a bona fide major league right fielder.
Really, if the Nationals aren’t going to try to contend this season, Livan’s presence is a luxury, perhaps even a problem.
Because waiting in the wings are two former all-star pitchers, Jason Marquis and Chien-Ming Wang. Marquis is due to return to the Nationals in mid-July and Wang, who is not progressing as quickly as hoped, will probably be available two or three weeks later.
Stephen Strasburg, John Lannan and Scott Olsen are locks to remain in the rotation through the rest of the season (though Strasburg will be pulled when he reaches his first-year inning count, somewhere in early-to-mid September). But what if Luis Atilano or J.D. Martin struggles?
No problem. Just insert Wang or Marquis. In fact, they are going to be inserted regardless of how the staff is pitching.
By August, then, the rotation will include Strasburg, Lannan, Wang, Marquis and one of Atilano, Martin or Olsen.
Sometime after the all-star break, the Nationals will have no less than eight starting pitchers who have earned the right to be in the rotation. Some will slump, some will be injured, but among them will be five pitchers who are good enough to help the Nationals contend.
But if that is true, is the bullpen strong enough to support a contender?
Absolutely.
The Nationals will need seven solid arms in the bullpen. Take a look at the top seven relievers the Nationals currently have:
Miguel Batista: 0-2, 4.05, 6.5/5.6/4.8, .207/.336/.360
Other than his high number of walks, Batista’s stats—especially his batting average against—are lights out. He is the weakest link in the bullpen right now, which says a lot about the way this group is pitching.
Tyler Walker: 1-0, 4.13, 9.5/1.6/8.6, .278/.304/.472
Need someone to come in and strike a batter out, or to at least make sure you don’t walk him? Walker is allowing just 1.6 walks per nine-innings while striking out almost nine. He started off poorly but has pitched well recently.
Doug Slaten: 2-0, 1.93, 9.7/4.3/5.4, .290/.371/.323
Slaten is walking too many, and giving up too many hits, but his 1.93 ERA is sparkling.
Sean Burnett: 0-3, 3.50, 8.3/3.6/8.8, .235/.307/.353
Burnett started slowly but has redeemed himself recently and has now matched his numbers from last season, which was his career best.
Drew Storen: 1-0, 1.93, 5.6/5.6/5.6, .185/.333/.222
5.6 walks, hits and strikeouts per nine-innings? I think all of those numbers are skewed by a low inning total. But his averages-against tell the real story. He’s done an outstanding job.
Tyler Clippard: 8-3, 1.66, 5.0/4.3/10.1, .172/.279/.276
Just look at those slash lines one more time. I don’t have a thing to add.
Matt Capps: 0-3, 3.71, 10.5/2.1/8.1, .286/.330/.429, 18 saves
Take away the errors in Houston and Capps would have 20 saves, on pace for 58 for the year. Sure, he’s got a little Chad Cordero in him, but unless his defense (or the umpires) doesn’t make a mistake, he’s going to get the save. He’s hanging some sliders right now, but he’ll correct the problem soon enough.
The Nationals’ offense, as we all know, is good enough to make it to the playoffs. Yes, there is a big hole in right field, but Rizzo certainly has enough spare parts to go out and get one if needed.
And the bullpen is about as good as it gets, and once the injured starting pitchers return, there is going to be a logjam like we’ve never seen before here in Washington.
The National League is made up of several very good teams and a bunch more average ones. Strasburg, a right fielder, and the return of the players currently on the disabled list would be enough to get the Nationals to 84-87 wins.
Will that be enough to get to the playoffs?
I don’t know. And unless the answer to that question becomes a cut-and-dried yes, I don’t see the Nationals trading any of their future for a preemptive pennant chase this summer.
Stay tuned, though. Whatever happens is going to happen soon.
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On a day to thank mom for everything she has done, the Washington Nationals attempted to give all the mothers of National Nation a present. Looking for the Nats’ sixth series win of the season, Livan Hernandez took to the hill at Nationals Park against the ever troublesome Florida Marlins.
Through five starts, Hernandez has been one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball. He went into Sunday’s action with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 1.06, good for second best in the National League.With a variety of arm angles and speed changes, Hernandez is keep batters off balance better than he has ever in his lengthy career.
Sunday was no different for Livan. In seven outstanding innings of work, Hernandez surrendered only five hits and one earned run; his only blemish coming on a hanging breaking ball in the sixth inning to Hanley Ramirez taken just over the right field wall for a home run.
With his mother in the crowd, Adam Dunn shined at the plate. Dunn knocked three hits including an RBI single to give the Nationals a 2-0 lead in the third inning.
The Nationals would hold this lead into the top of the eighth inning, calling on Tyler Clippard to bridge the gap to closer Matt Capps. So far this season, Clippard has racked up innings out of the bullpen at a pace that would make “everyday” Eddie Gordado proud.
Clippard got off to an inauspicious start, however, on Sunday. Coming on with a runner on first, Clippard quickly found the bases loaded after allowing a no out single and walk. With the go-ahead run standing on second base, Jorge Cantu stepped to the plate with a chance to change the game. Sending a high fly ball to left field, Cantu was able to tie the game with a sacrifice fly.
Clippard bore down and showed why he is an early candidate for National League reliever of the year with one out and runners on first and second. Striking out the dangerous Dan Uggla and retiring John Baker, Clippard shut the door on the Marlins in the eighth.
With one out and none on Josh Willingham turned on a hanger high in the zone, sending it into the visitors bullpen in the left center field power alley; putting the Nationals on top 3-2.
That’s where things would remain as Matt Capps came in and retired the Marlins one-two-three to pick up his National League-leading 13th save of the season.
With another series win under their belts, Washington is continuing to play strong fundamental baseball in early May. Though improbable, don’t count the Nationals out as a contender for the NL East crown come September.
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