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Roy Oswalt turned down a one-year, $10 million contract offer from the Detroit Tigers this week, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Meanwhile, the Tigers continue to downplay interest in Chicago Cubs right-hander Matt Garza, and GM Dave Dombrowski said the team would not include top pitching prospect Jacob Turner in a package for Garza.

From an objective, big-picture perspective, Dombrowski’s public position is the right one. Turner is one of the top six or seven right-handed pitching prospects in baseball right now and looked pretty good in brief time with the parent club in 2011.

At 20 years of age, Turner is as advanced for his age as any pitcher in baseball. He could be a Garza archetype within three or four years, a front-of-the-rotation stud with a deadly breaking ball and great command. Dealing away six seasons of Turner (plus another prospect) to get two seasons’ worth of control over Garza does not make great long-term sense.

On the other hand, Dombrowski and the Tigers ought not to make the long term their primary concern right now. After signing Prince Fielder for nine years and $214 million last week, the team now has a two or three year window in which they have the star power they need to win an AL pennant. However, as cliche their choice of mottos for the season, it’s true: The Tigers are all-in.

That’s why they should trade for Garza right now. They should deal Turner and left-handed pitching prospect Alex Burgos and ask the Cubs to throw in some cash along with Garza. That deal would be palatable to both sides, and for three principal reasons, it’s the best the Tigers are going to be able to get in the near future.

The Pressure

The Tigers have to win in 2012. It became an organizational imperative the day they signed Fielder. That’s fine right now; they well deserve to be AL Central favorites. It might force them into a corner, though, if they have a glaring need entering July.

And they will. Justin Verlander is a regression candidate for 2012—so are Doug Fister. Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are fine back-end or even mid-rotation starters, but Turner, Andy Oliver and Casey Crosby are all unready for the fifth starter’s gig. Duane Below is ready, but he isn’t good. 

The Tigers are going to need pitching help this summer. They’re going to need someone better than a fifth starter like Jake Westbrook or Jeff Niemann in order to field a rotation capable of leading the team deep into October. Ideally, it would be someone capable of striking out more than 20 percent of opposing batters because the Tigers’ defense is going to be atrocious.

Matt Garza fits the bill. In fact, it may well be that he will be the only guy who fits the bill. That will force the Tigers to go to the Cubs in pursuit of Garza. By then, though, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer should have three or four other teams interested. 

The Price Tag

That competition will be trouble for the Tigers. When summer comes, more than one team will be surprisingly good, and more than one team will need an extra starter. It might be the Toronto Blue Jays; it might be the Kansas City Royals.

Both of those teams have deeper and better farm systems than the one in Detroit, and both need a pitcher more than the Tigers. It’s possible the Tigers would be utterly unable to acquire Garza at the trade deadline. If they did manage it, it would cost them Turner, Crosby and Alex Burgos. It might cost them more. If they didn’t pony up with that package, the Blue Jays or Royals would easily outbid them.

Right now, neither of those teams is in the market for a new starting pitcher via trade. No other team is. The Tigers have leverage right now—at least it’s a buyer’s market. It will not be so in a few months.

The Precedent

Last season, the Colorado Rockies put Ubaldo Jimenez on the trade block during the summer. They were free-falling out of the race, and Jimenez was a luxury they felt they could no longer afford. They didn’t need to trade him, of course, but they had multiple buyers in place, and Jimenez was under control for a year and a half more, so they felt they could get top dollar in return for him.

Jimenez ended up in Cleveland, and he did, indeed, fetch a hefty price. The Indians sent the Rockies Drew Pomeranz, Alex White and a pair of lesser minor-leaguers in order to pursue a division title. They did it, somewhat, out of desperation. Pomeranz and White were the top two prospects in their farm system, and among the top 75 or so in baseball. 

That’s what happens when a team gets desperate. They overpay. The Rockies got more for Jimenez than he was worth, strictly speaking, since he had battled injuries most of the season. If the Tigers wait until the summer to pursue Matt Garza, they are going to end up giving the Cubs more for Matt Garza than he is worth, too.

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Earlier this week, David Kaplan of Comcast Sportsnet Chicago reported that the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays were all going after Matt Garza of the Chicago Cubs and had been involved in talks to acquire this starting pitcher.  

Just today, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has reported that the Detroit Tigers and Miami Marlins have greatly rammed up efforts to land Garza in a trade with Chicago.  Out of all the teams, the Toronto Blue Jays seemed to have gotten the farthest in trade talks, as they were exclusively talking with Theo Epstein earlier in the week.  

It now seems very likely that the Cubs will make a deal sooner rather than later.  It is true that Epstein is looking for a major deal for Garza, as he believes that he could build the team around an “ace” like Matt Garza.  With recent trades for Matt Latos and Gio Gonzalez bringing back major pieces, the Chicago Cubs know that they have the ability to maximize a major return by trading away Garza now.  Plus, teams could be hurt after losing out on Yu Darvish, CJ Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Gio Gonzalez and even Edwin Jackson in the near future.  This increase in desperation and increased return for decent starting pitching shows that some team will be willing to give up big.

The New York Yankees have more than what it takes for Matt Garza, with major players like Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances all vying for spots on the Major League team this spring training.  Is Matt Garza even a fit for the team, though?

On paper, the answer to that question is yes.  In 198 IP last season, Garza went 10-10 with a 3.32 ERA and 197 SO.  Even with the Tampa Bay Rays, he ended up having an ERA in the high threes from 2007 to 2010.  Overall, Garza has been very consistent, as we all know how he will probably pitch if he goes to the Bronx next season.  In this way, the New York Yankees have to consider Matt Garza more highly than they would Edwin Jackson, especially since it looks as though Jackson will command a ton of money on the open market this offseason with Scott Boras as his agent.

The issue is price, in terms of prospects.  In the AL East, Matt Garza only projects to pitch to an ERA around 3.80 at best, given how he performed with Tampa Bay in 2010.  Do not get me wrong, this type of performance is a clear upgrade to what the New York Yankees have right now because of the simple fact that it provides some consistency.  You know what you’re going to get with Garza from start to start, whereas we cannot really be assured that Freddy Garcia is going to come back with just as good a season as he had last year.  But, another positive to Garza is that he has postseason experience and would project to perform at his same pace in a tough environment at Yankee Stadium.

The prospects would probably be too much.  Theo Epstein seems to value Matt Garza as an ace, and rightfully so with his 2011 stats.  But the New York Yankees will never give up pitchers like Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, let alone Jesus Montero, to acquire a pitcher who would probably pitch to an ERA of 3.80 to 4.00.  The feeling around the organization is that they would have a high probability of developing an ace in one of the following: Ivan Nova, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances.  They would probably be able to do so in the next three years at most.  Plus, don’t forget about Adam Warren and David Phelps who are even closer to big league-ready than Banuelos and Betances.  

All of these pitchers project to perform just as well as, if not better than Garza in the near future.  So why should Cashman give up three or four of his top prospects? 

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After relentlessly attempting to land local product Gio Gonzalez and add another established pitcher to the rotation, the Marlins are forced to look elsewhere as the division rival Washington Nationals augmented their rotation with another young arm. 

It was disappointing for the Marlins because, in this particular case, they were willing to deal their top prospects, a change of times for a franchise who usually keeps and molds their farm system and deals their established starting players. 

The Oakland Athletics asked the Marlins for either Logan Morrison or Mike Stanton in a package deal for Gio Gonzalez and the team has deemed both “untouchable”. 

So where does the team go from here? 

The current rotation of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, and Anibal Sanchez has an array of question marks to the point that it might not even be within the top 3 in the crowded NL East.

The trade market currently consists of Wade Davis (Rays), Gavin Floyd (White Sox), Matt Garza (Cubs), Wandy Rodriguez (Astros), and Carlos Zambrano (Cubs). 

The Marlins could easily obtain Davis, Rodriguez or Zambrano in different ways. If they want Wade Davis (26), they’d have to part with Gaby Sanchez which will only happen if the team successfully signs Yoenis Cespedes so that Morrison can reclaim his former position at first base.  

To get Wandy Rodriguez (32), the Marlins would have to eat up the grand majority of his contract (three years/$36 million) and deal a solid return. But considering they wanted C.J. Wilson, this is a possibility. Rodriguez went 11-11 with a 3.49 ERA but his strikeout rate has steadily declined since 2008. 

To get Carlos Zambrano (30), the Marlins wouldn’t have to deal much as the Cubs would eat up most of the $18 million owed to him in 2012. The team would likely have to part with pitcher Chris Volstad to get a deal done. Zambrano essentially would be a reclamation project with the hopes he can regain his footing as top-of-the-rotation guy. 

As for Matt Garza or Gavin Floyd, the package would have to be within the ranks of the Gio Gonzalez deal. The Marlins will probably steer clear of Garza (10-10, 3.32 ERA) considering the package the Cubs would seek for their 28-year-old with only one year of control left. Gavin Floyd (12-13, 4.37 ERA), Ozzie’s former pitcher with the White Sox, would be an intriguing option but the “rebuilding” White Sox could seek a huge return for their 28-year-old pitcher. 

On the other hand, the free agent market consists of Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Oswalt, Joe Saunders and Javier Vazquez.  Out of these, Vazquez has said and continues to hold firm on his stance on retiring and, at this point, why force a guy back when he truly doesn’t want to return?

Joe Saunders and Hiroki Kuroda make little sense because of age in Kuroda’s case (36) or pitching ability in Saunders’ case (soft-throwing left-hander, which the Marlins have in Mark Buehrle). 

Edwin Jackson seeks a multi-year deal with agent Scott Boras in tow, and the Marlins won’t go down that road with a pitcher of similar ability in Ricky Nolasco, who floundered last season. 

As for Roy Oswalt, it wouldn’t be a bad decision to sign him, as he seeks a one-year deal. But can the Marlins afford to add another question mark, as Oswalt suffered through back issues last season? 

You can bet the Marlins are going to add one more pitcher, but who is it? That’s yet to be seen, but the team has to do whatever it takes to keep up with the pitching ranks in the NL East. The Marlins arguably may have the best lineup in the division, but the starting rotation thirsts for one more ace to make the team a serious contender. 

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Heading into the start of last season, the Cubbies had the third largest payroll in baseball, but had just 75 wins by the end of the year to show for it.

During the offseason, Chicago went out and got a power pitcher and hitter in Matt Garza and Carlos Pena.  They also added Kerry Wood to provide punch in the back of the bullpen.

This is a squad that won 97 games just three years ago.  They’re capable of making a run, but inconsistency has hampered their chances the past two years.  Plus, the NL Central has improved dramatically since 2008.

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The Rays’ journey to becoming a constant playoff-contender took awhile, but came all of sudden when it finally happened.

Contending with the power-house teams of the AL East—the Yankees and Red Sox—is the toughest thing to do for any team to have to do. It’s makes it even tougher when you can’t spend half the money of the those two teams.

But the Rays haven’t used any excuses, rather using lower-risk, high-reward pickups and their minor league system to create a nucleus for a championship-caliber squad.

Two division championships and an American League pennant in three years is good for any team (except maybe if your from the Bronx), but under the circumstances of being a small-market club, it’s amazing what the Rays have been able to accomplish.

Here’s a list of five things you may or may not expect, but have kept the Rays at, or near the top of the tough AL East.

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The MLB off-season can set up a player for success or disaster. Some teams made a big splash, while others are still looking for a solution. Each team has the potential of making 2011 a season to remember, but which players are looking to take the fantasy scene by storm?

Postion changes or calling a new town home can be just the spark a player needed to become an elite fantasy option. Understanding exactly which off-season moves impacted which players is the key to a successful 2011 fantasy baseball campaign.

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With so many of the big name free agents signed early on this off season, it has been a winter of trade rumors, and while most have proved to be nothing beyond just rumors, the Brewers managed to pull off two of the bigger trades of the off season.

However, the rest of the NL Central has been fairly busy as well, as the Cubs, Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers all look to be in the running for the division. Even the Astros and Pirates made a handful of moves that could make series’ against them that much tougher.

So here are the ten biggest moves of the off season for the NL Central, as we look forward to Spring Training and the start of the season.

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The team a pitcher plays for has a major role in how well the pitcher performs, especially on a fantasy baseball level. There are many examples of pitchers who thrived on one team; however, a switch to the American League exposed their weakness or their offense did not provide any support which limited the pitcher’s win total.

Javier Vazquez, for example, had a Cy Young-caliber year in Atlanta in 2009; however, in 2010, when he moved to New York, he was shelled by the much more dangerous American League East lineups. 

The park a pitcher plays in is the first, and arguably most influential way in which the team a pitcher plays for can affect one’s stats. In a hitters park such as the Padres’ Petco Park, a pitcher has a huge advantage over somebody pitching in the Rockies’ Coors Field. 

Another way that a pitcher’s team can influence his stats is the team’s offense. Pitching for the Red Sox or the Yankees is much more conducive to winning than pitching for the Mariners or Pirates. 

Finally, the team a pitcher is on affects the stats he puts up, because the team a pitcher plays on affects the offenses he has to pitch against. A classic example of this is the switch from the American League to the National League. Pitching against National League teams historically has led to more impressive statistics than pitching against American League teams. 

Let’s take a look at three pitchers who switched teams this offseason and examine how it is going to affect their production in 2011. 

Zack Greinke, 2010 Statistics: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 181 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

The 2009 American League Cy Young winner struggled in a big way in 2010. A losing record and an ERA above four were not characteristics fantasy baseball owners were looking for when they drafted him 25.7 overall in ESPN standard leagues in 2010. Motivational issues and a poor surrounding cast were major issues for Greinke in 2010.

Will a change in scenery help Greinke restore his Cy Young potential?

In terms of ballparks, Greinke is actually moving to a more difficult park to pitch in. Miller Park (Brewers) is ranked sixth in ease of home run hitting, whereas Kaufman Stadium (Royals) ranks 19th. The two rank similarly in overall runs scored, though the difference in proneness of home runs could become a problem for Greinke. 

On the bright side, the switch to the National League Central should help Greinke’s production greatly. The average number of runs scored by American League Central teams in 2010 excluding the Royals was 732.5. That number for National League Central teams excluding the Brewers was 681.8. That’s a difference of .313 runs per game. Keep in mind though, these are not all the teams Greinke will be facing, they are just the teams in his division whom he will face most frequently. 

As for the offense Greinke will be playing with versus the one he left, he will again improve. While the Royals ranked 20th in runs scored with 676, the Brewers ranked 12th with 750, a difference of .457 runs per game. It’s not going to immediately turn Greinke into a win machine, but it will help his record a good deal. 

Overall, Greinke switch to the National League Central should be viewed as a good move, but it does not make him a Cy Young threat; to return to that level, he will have to improve his own pitching. 

2011 Zack Greinke Projections: 15-8, 3.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 186 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

Aaron Harang, 2010 Statistics: 6-7, 5.32 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 82 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

Harang could be a huge sleeper in 2010. He signed a one-year contract with the San Diego Padres this winter, and this subtle switch should have a huge impact on his production. In Cincinnatti, Harang had two elite seasons, 2006 and 2007, which he looks to reproduce in 2011. 

Let’s again begin with the switch in ballparks. Harang will be going from a relatively difficult pitchers’ park in the Great American Ball Park to one of the easiest in Petco Park. The Great American Ball Park ranked 12th in runs scored against and eighth in home runs against (where the lower the rank, the more difficult for pitchers). On the contrary, Petco Park ranked 26th in runs scored against and 22nd in home runs against. This is not a small difference, but it will certainly help Harang get his career back on track.

As for the difference in difficulty the teams he will be facing, he will face more difficult opponents, as National League West Teams excluding the Padres average .19 more runs per game than National League Central teams excluding the Padres. 

Another factor against Harang is that his team’s offense is significantly worse than it was in 2010. The Reds score .77 more runs per game than the Padres.

However, on the defensive side of the game, the Padres were actually better than the Reds in 2010. The Padres’ UZR was 50.0, while the Reds was 44.8. Both were good for top four in the majors, however every bit helps in the MLB. 

A final note about Harang is that his numbers were partially affected by the fact that he was injured during part of 2010, thus his win total and strikeout total are not reflective of his efficiency. 

Overall, Harang should see a much more productive season in 2011 than 2010. While his win percentage may not increase, the transition to Petco Park combined with the fact that Harang should come into 2011 more prepared after his down 2010 should boost Harang’s overall numbers. 

2011 Aaron Harang Projections: 10-10, 4.34 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 152 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

Matt Garza, 2010 Statistics: 15-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 150 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

Garza had a relatively productive 2010, especially if you take into account the difficulty in pitching against for an American League East team. 

Garza’s ERA against American League East teams in 2010 was 4.81, which is not surprising given that the Yankees and Red Sox were 1-2 in runs scored in 2010, with the Jays trailing not far behind. Moving to one of the weaker hitting divisions in the MLB should be a huge boost for Garza as the difference in runs scored by American League East teams versus National League Central teams per game was .41. 

Of course, the Rays were a much better hitting team than the Cubs, as they scored .73 more runs per game in 2010. Though, Rays power hitter Carlos Pena will be moving with Garza to the Cubs, which may boost the Cubs’ offense.

The only really significant downside of Garza’s move is the switch from the easiest pitchers’ park in the game to one of the hardest. Tropicana Field ranked 30th in runs scored against and 17th in home runs allowed, whereas Wrigley Field ranked third in runs scored against and ninth in home runs allowed. 

While this transition of ballparks in significant, it does not make up for the relief Garza will receive in leaving the American League East.

2011 Matt Garza Projections: 14-11, 3.77 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 172 Strikeouts, 0 Saves

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National League Central rivals, specifically the I-90 enemies, have recently made additions to improve the top of their rotations.

The Crew made a six-player deal that brought former AL Cy Young Zack Greinke into a rotation that already had right-handers Shaun Marcum and Yovani Gallardo, in addition to left-hander Randy Wolf. Each of these members have enjoyed recent success at the major league level and will be able to work deep enough into games to help keep the bullpen rested.

The Cubbies brought in Matt Garza in an eight-player deal that sent four of the Cubs’ top prospects to Tampa Bay. Garza joins Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and others in another rotation that needs to lead their team.

The two trades involved plenty of guys changing uniforms and therefore will be scrutinized for years to come as each player progresses with their new team. The fact that the Brewers and Cubs made deals for ace pitchers, within weeks of each other adds more intrigue to the transaction. Each team had to unload a good portion of their farm system, and that begs the question of whether or not each team got what they paid for.   

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The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs made a surprising trade Thursday when the Rays agreed to send pitcher Matt Garza, outfielder Fernando Perez and a minor league pitcher to the Cubs for a package of prospects including pitcher Chris Archer, outfielders Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld, catcher Robinson Chirinos and shortstop Hak-Ju Lee. According to most baseball critics, the Rays received a great package for Garza, probably one that was an overpay for the Cubs.  I tend to agree, and I’ll make a bold statement:

The Tampa Bay Rays ended up with the best pitcher in the deal—Chris Archer.

Garza, 27, was originally drafted by the Minnesota Twins and traded to the Rays after the 2007 season. Though he’s young and hasn’t been in the the league for all that long, Garza has already assembled quite a list of accolades, including winning the 2008 ALCS MVP award and no-hitting the Detroit Tigers in 2010.  However, his career numbers aren’t as impressive as they appear.

Garza was extremely durable in 2010, making 32 starts for the Rays and logging 204.2 innings—his second straight season with more than 200 innings.  He posted a 15-10 record, with 3.91 ERA, as the staff’s ace by committee. He struck out close to seven batters and walked just under three per nine innings. He also posted a few unimpressive numbers, including a 1.25 WHIP and a 1.23 home run per nine rate, one of the worst in baseball.

The Cubs acquired Garza with the hope of contending in 2011, but they may be in for a rather unpleasant surprise. According to most baseball experts, Garza won’t transition well into the NL Central, specifically, into Wrigley Field. Throughout most of his career, he has been known as a fly ball pitcher and has posted weak ground ball rates in each of the last three seasons—not a good sign for a pitcher who is about to take his talents to one of the league’s most notorious, hitter-friendly parks.

Advanced Sabermetrics aren’t particularly fond of Garza either. In 2010, he posted a 4.42 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which is much worse than what his 3.91 ERA suggests. Taking his 2010 season a step further, Garza’s Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), which adjusts a pitcher’s ERA to suit the ballpark, was 4.51.

While the Cubs may have a potential pitching question mark on their hands, the Rays struck gold.

In acquiring Archer, the Rays not only effectively replaced Garza for the long term, but acquired the best pitcher in the deal. Archer, 22, was originally drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the 2006 Amateur Draft. The Cubs acquired the struggling right hander in exchange for super utility player, Mark DeRosa, and the Cubs have watched him rise up their rankings since.

Prior to the 2010 season, Archer couldn’t even crack the Cubs’ top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America. By the 2011 season though, he was ranked No. 1. Baseball America stated he had the best fastball and slider in the Cubs’ system, and the man once projected as a bottom-of-the-rotation or bullpen arm had suddenly turned into a top-of-the-rotation talent.

Archer split time between the Cubs’ minor league affiliates in 2010, impressing at both levels. His combined numbers totaled a 15-3 record, with a combined ERA of 2.33. With the Cubs’ A+ affiliate, Archer used his tremendous fastball/slider combo to strike out more than 10 batters and walking just over three per nine innings. Hitters at this level couldn’t even crack the Mendoza Line against him, batting just .196. He had nothing left to prove at this level, and the Cubs promoted him to AA.

He was equally impressive against tougher hitters, striking out close to nine batters per nine innings at the AA level. Though he struggled with his control, walking five batters per nine innings, he was practically unhittable; AA batters managed to hit just .209 against him. He surrendered six total home runs on both levels combined and surrendered just 14 earned runs at AA.

Archer’s “stuff” has never been questioned. He features a plus fastball with great lateral movement that sits comfortably between 89-93 mph and has the ability to touch 95 mph on the radar gun. He also boasts a circle-changeup that has the potential to become another plus pitch, but will need some work. His greatest pitch has always been his slider, which sometimes is confused for a curveball because of its tremendous movement. He has good control over all three of these pitches, and from the time he was drafted in 2006 to the time he was traded in 2011, all three have developed nicely.

What is most interesting is Archer will join a Tampa Bay Rays’ farm system that already boasts a number of talented top-of-the-rotation arms in Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jake McGee, Alex Torres, Alex Colome and Jake Thompson. Though a few of these guys, most notably McGee, are more likely to wind up in the bullpen, the Rays have built a strong farm system with some of the best pitching in baseball. Take into consideration that the Rays’ 2014 projected pitching staff, as per Baseball America, now features a rotation of David Price, Hellickson, Moore, Jeff Niemann and Davis, with McGee as the team’s closer.  It’s clear just how deep the Rays’ pitching staff is, and it’s very possible one of these top prospects will have to move over and watch Archer pass them.

Many baseball critics will compare this deal “in the long run,” but the Rays improved their team both now and in the future.  Moving an overrated Garza out of the American League will immediately make room in the rotation for a much more talented pitcher in Hellickson. He should provide more Wins Above Replacement (WAR) than Garza at a cheaper salary. In the future, Archer will develop into a better starter than Garza, making this deal a complete steal for the Rays.

The bottom line is, if the Rays acquired Archer for Garza straight up, they still would have won this deal.

Everything else is 100% profit.

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