Tag: Matt Kemp

MLB: Big League Positional Surprises

Every year in baseball, surprising or not, we’re witnesses to unorthodox outbreaks during the first few weeks of America’s pastime.

Quick hitting, hot pitching and all-around great play make-up these specific breakout performances from some of the least expected players.

In 2011, amidst slow and unexpected starts from top-notch players like Albert Pujols, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Carpenter and Phil Hughes, other positional hitters and pitchers have stepped their game up and earned the recognition.

Realizing that we’ve only seen a short sample of the 2011 baseball season, expectations should be in-check. 

However, due to the blazing starts that some of these players have accumulated, it’s hard not to pay tribute and point out the not so obvious.

With that said, here are the positional players who have out performed the “elite” through the first two weeks of baseball and earned the title, “I can do anything better than you.”

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L.A. Dodgers: Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw Quickly Emerging as Team Leaders

Before the 2011 season began in LA, there were many questions about this year’s Dodger squad. The 2010 campaign was a forgettable season in many ways, and there was surely reason to think that this year’s team may not be any better.

But for the optimistic fan, there was the hope that 2011 would be a rebound year if a couple of guys could build on their potential. So far Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp have been doing just that, and actually exceeding expectations early on in this young season.

Matt Kemp won the Gold Glove in 2009 and was widely praised as one of the biggest up-and-coming superstars in the National League.

Then in 2010, he had a much-publicized dating relationship with megastar Rihanna, and a perceived lack of focus on baseball. His batting average dropped tremendously, his power numbers came in spurts, but couldn’t be counted on with any kind of consistency. He was publicly called out for his effort by GM Ned Colletti. Nobody knew quite what to expect out of him coming into this new season.

Clayton Kershaw, on the other hand, really started to fulfill his potential last year. After an April in which he walked 22 batters in 29 innings, he would go on to only walk another 59 over his final 175 innings. In September of 2010 he had an ERA of 2.38 with a WHIP of 0.85. He finished the season with 13 wins and considered the ace of the staff. Kershaw entered this year as the Opening Day starter.

With the departure of recently shamed and retired Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers’ inability to land a slugger in the offseason, most people figured that Kemp would have to regain his 2009 form for the Dodgers to succeed.

Early on, Kemp is looking like a much better player that the one fans were expecting (thank you, Davey Lopes). He is hitting over .400 and creating havoc on the base paths like no Dodger in recent history. 

After Monday’s win against the Giants, he is up to a perfect seven-for-seven stealing bases. He has scored in seven of the team’s 10 games. The team seems to be following Matt Kemp’s lead more than anyone else and he seems to be thriving in the spotlight, rather than trying to shy away.

Kershaw, meanwhile, went out on Monday and threw another great game against the Giants. He had to throw a lot of pitches (117, to be exact), but walked only two batters and did not surrender a run to earn his second win against the rivals from the bay.

In a game in which he battled against the count, he showed a rare maturity for a young pitcher. He showed once again why he is considered the ace despite the fact that he is the team’s youngest starter.

The season is still very young. Ten games do not necessarily provide the best gauge for how a club will perform all year. And a record of 6-4 is nothing to get all that excited about, but with the leadership of two maturing players the Dodgers have plenty of reason to be optimistic.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Hot & Cold List W/E 4-10

Every Monday I will be bringing you the Top 3 hot and cold baseball players from around MLB. The twist, I’ll also be providing a buy or sell recommendation on the cold players to help you decide if this is a guy to target in a trade offer or someone you should cut if they’re clogging a bench spot. I’ll also give advice on those playing well, if you should sell high or buy the continued dominance.

 

For the last week, here are your Hot & Cold recommendations—

 

HOT

 

Paul Konerko

Last 7 games: .393 Avg, 5 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB

Call: Sell

Konerko will get you around 30 home runs and 100 RBI, but if an owner in your league is seeing over 40 homers and a .300+ batting average, sell high.

 

Matt Kemp

Last 7 games: .407 Avg, 4 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 5 SB

Call: Buy

Kemp’s average will cool off, closer to his career .290, but he’s on a mission this year and you can expect the stats to keep piling up for his lucky owner.

 

Jaime Garcia

Last 2 games: 1-0, 0.60 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 18 K

Call: Sell

Garcia looked good last year, so a strong start is no fluke. However, these numbers aren’t sustainable. But if someone in your league thinks they are, sell!

 

COLD

 

Vernon Wells

Last 7 games: .094 Avg, 2 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB

Call: Buy

With the move to a less hitter friendly ballpark, you should expect lower numbers than last season, but he won’t hit .100 all year. Buy with the expectation of home runs in the low 20’s and an average in the .270 range.

 

Derek Jeter

Last 7 games: .179 Avg, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB

Call: Sell

Jeter has become a ground ball specialist as he’s aged. The trends say he’s declining. Sure, he won’t hit below .200 for the season, but if he’s your starting shortstop for the year you may be in trouble. Especially when the Yankees make the inevitable move to drop him down in the lineup.

 

Phil Hughes

Last 2 games: 0-1, 16.50 ERA, 2.67 WHIP, 1 K

Call: Sell

The drop in velocity has me concerned. You can’t expect opposing teams to hit .400 off him all year, but he doesn’t look like he’s going to be the same pitcher as last year unless something changes drastically.

 

Brian is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of the 4th and Home Radio show on Blog Talk Radio.

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Major League Baseball: Opening Day Observations

Also known as ODOs.

Well, I call them ODOs and some day, you will too. Until then, see if you noticed what I noticed:

 

Albert Pujols goes 0-for-5

He also grounded into three double plays—cue the overreaction random radio show sports talk guy.

That’s right, Pujols is washed up; can’t handle the contract-year pressure; forgot how to hit; only tips 10 percent.

Actually, he’ll be fine.

What the Cardinals, their fans and anybody else interested should be worried about is that rotation.

With Adam Wainwright down for the count, Chris Carpenter has to carry the load. Carrying the load puts a lot of pressure on your hamstrings. Considering he strained his in spring training, Carpenter is longing for someone to be close to him in the rotation.

Reliever-turned-starter Kyle McClellan has been the most buzzworthy candidate so far, but even with Dave Duncan’s guidance, C.J. Wilson he ain’t.

Save the Birds, Pujols! Good slogan for the Cardinals and/or tree huggers everywhere.

 

Matt Kemp walks three times

He’s on pace for 486 bases on balls—that would be a record. It probably won’t happen.

But considering he only walked 53 times last year, which was his career high, it’s a good sign, nonetheless; considering he accomplished this feat against Tim Lincecum, even more nonetheless.

If I owned him in a fantasy league (huh, I do, how about that?) I’d be excited: An improved batting eye means fewer strikeouts (170 last year), which positively correlates to more balls in play (.295 BABIP last year, .344 career), which screams a stat correction is on the way. 

 

Pitch selection

If you watched the Reds/Brewers game you might have noticed Thomas Edinson Volquez pitching to contact.

That’s a good pitching strategy, except when the contact results in a 445-foot home run.

Volquez has a ton of talent, but it seems he challenges hitters too often and studs like Ryan Braun, along with lesser studs like Rickie Weeks and wannabe studs like Carlos Gomez, make him pay.

Kevin Millar brought up this point on MLB Tonight today, which I would like to vehemently agree with and elaborate on for those that have no idea what I’m babbling about.

In the fifth inning, down 4-2, Volquez got Braun to chase his first pitch, a nasty breaking ball in the dirt.

So why in the world would he try to fool him with a fastball in on the next pitch?

Braun wasn’t fooled and he crushed his first of many home runs this year.

These guys are professional hitters. Meaning, they are looking fastball in.

Throw the same pitch you just schooled them on until they adjust to it—don’t try to outsmart a professional hitter. Millar said Greg Maddux would throw a changeup five, six times in a row during an at-bat.

Keep the hitter guessing.

Until Volquez can do that, he won’t be consistent and he can’t be relied on. 

 

Center fielders in the outfield

The Anaheim Angels are flying a little under the radar this year. Does anybody appreciate the Angels/flying connection?

No? Well, I do and the Angels are flying under the radar.

Through one game (I know, huge sample size), the Hunter/Wells/Bourjos outfield triumvirate seems like a good idea. They have all played center field at some point in their careers (Peter Bourjos now, Torii Hunter last year, Vernon Wells for Toronto).

Traditionally, the center fielder is the most athletic player on the field, can cover the most ground and is the best fielder. Having three guys that fit that mold bodes well for the Angels’ defense and their pitchers.

The focus of the AL West this year seems to be on the A’s and Rangers, deservedly, but the Angels could surprise some folks.

Especially if their offense struggles to score runs, they are going to need strong defense to win those 2-1, 4-3 games.

Three center fielders should do just that.

 

Alex Gordon

That was your chance, dude. Opening Day, down 4-2, two on, two out, hit the home run, be the hero everyone wants you to be. Don’t strike out.

Against Fernando Rodney? After you just hit a mammoth foul just left of the pole? Don’t go 0-for-5. At least you hit six spring training homers.

Jake Fox would be proud.

 

Six games down, 2,424 to go. Should be fun. Make sure to take advantage of the free week of MLB Extra Innings.

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MLB Trade Ideas: 7 Teams That Could Pursue Los Angeles Dodgers’ Matt Kemp

When many teams around MLB contact the Los Angeles Dodgers front office about the possibility of a prospective trade, the first player usually brought up in any conversation is outfielder Matt Kemp.

In the weeks prior to the trade deadline last season, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti was adamant that Kemp wasn’t available for trade, but that didn’t stop other teams from inquiring. It could be a different story this year. Kemp’s current contract expires at the end of this season, and owner Frank McCourt may very well base the decision to retain Kemp on his production during the first half of the 2011 campaign.

If Kemp isn’t extended for more than two years, he will become a free agent for the first time after the 2013 season. Considering he will earn $6.95 million this year, his salary demands could easily reach eight figures as he enters his final year of pre-arbitration.

Like many of his teammates, Kemp’s 2010 statistics saw a significant decline from his Silver Slugger and Gold Glove year in 2009. Despite the fall in production, we already examined why many expect Kemp to significantly improve in 2011 here.

The following slides show seven teams that may pursue Matt Kemp in the months leading to the 2011 trade deadline, and even if the Dodgers decide that Kemp’s best future is in Los Angeles, Colletti will once again find himself in a position of entertaining dozens of phone calls before July 31.     

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Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 Ways to Steal the NL West From the Giants

First of all, the Dodgers finished fourth in the NL West last season, so let’s not kid ourselves…this isn’t about Dodgers versus Giants. But what can the Dodgers do to win the division?

On paper, the team is good. But how can they separate themselves from the Giants and Rockies? All three have a legitimate ace. All three have offensive holes. So what’s the difference? 

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Fantasy Baseball: 50 Fearless Fantasy Projections for 2011

With fantasy baseball drafts in full swing, here are 50 fearless fantasy predictions to consider for the 2011 season.   

50. Derek Jeter is your number three fantasy shortstop after Hanley and Tulo —Look for a bounce back year aimed at proving he’s still earning his money.

49. Ubaldo Jiminez will undoubtedly be overvalued in your league—Remember his 2nd half?

48. Mike Stanton will finish in the top five in the NL in home runs—He’s also not going to win any batting titles.

47. Aroldis Chapman is this year’s Neftali Feliz—There’s no questioning the ability, it’s all about control and opportunity.

46. Billy Butler is really Mike Sweeney—The power just isn’t coming.

45. Roy Oswalt finishes with the best numbers of any Phillies starter—Call it a hunch.

44. Alex Rodriguez continues to regress—We aren’t going to see .300 with 35+ home runs from him again.

43. Matt Kemp finishes with better numbers than CarGo—We’ve seen the worst of the former and the best of the latter.

42. Cameron Maybin steals more than 30 bases and is fantasy relevant—He’s got the tools and he’s still just 24 years old.

41. Josh Johnson is not worth the risk-Back AND shoulder problems, no thanks.

40. Wandy Rodriguez will be overvalued during your draft—He is what he is.

39. Max Scherzer will be undervalued during your draft—Look at his second half stats.

38. Aaron Hill has a bounce back year—If I’m wrong, so is everyone else.

37. Delmon Young’s home run total rises again this year—Look at last season’s doubles.  Despite four full major league seasons, he’s still only 25.

36. Jonathan Papelbon doesn’t finish the season the season as Boston’s closer—For the record, I also don’t think its Bobby Jenks.

35. Someone in your draft will reach for B.J. Upton—You don’t want to be that owner.

34. John Lackey will be significantly better than last season—He’s being undervalued by everyone.

33. Drew Stubbs will not be significantly different than Chris Young—It’s all about eating the batting average.

32. There won’t be much difference between Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro—You’ll pay a lot less for Castro.

31. Someone will take a chance on Brian Roberts and his back—It shouldn’t be you.

30. Rafael Soriano saves double digit games—Hard to believe Mariano Rivera continues to be superhuman.

29. Francisco Liriano improves again this year—If he’s 85 percent of his 2006 self three years removed from Tommy John surgery he’s a steal on draft day.

28. Howie Kendrick becomes the player we’ve all projected he would be—Only because we’ve mostly all given up at this point.

27. Shortstop is so shallow that if Rafael Furcal gets 500 at bats he could challenge for top five at the position—That’s also a pretty big “if”.

26. Tsuyoshi Nishioka could hit .300, steal 25-30 bases and score 100 runs—He’ll be a cheaper source of steals than Chone Figgins.

25. Craig Kimbrel is this year’s Carlos Marmol—You can’t help but love the Ks.

24. Enough owners are hesitating on Miguel Cabrera that he’s falling in drafts—Until he takes to twitter and starts using the hashtag #winning, I’m not willing to be one of those owners.

23. Over three seasons in Texas, Josh Hamilton has averaged 126 games—I’ll take the under.

22. Josh Hamilton will still play more games for the Rangers than Nelson Cruz-Cruz is a highly productive player, but dealing with his day-to-day status and DL stints is just too frustrating.

21. Shin-Soo Choo may be as predictably safe a five category outfielder as there is—He lacks upside, but barring injury, .300-85-20-85-20 seems virtually guaranteed.

20. Hunter Pence may be the second most predictable outfielder—Three straight seasons of exactly 25 home runs, seriously?  He’s also never driven in 100 runs.

19. Carlos Lee’s numbers will continue to trend downward—He’s not a player you should be willing to own anymore.

18. Josh Beckett rebounds to win 15 or better this season—He’ll give up runs, but the WHIP remains strong and he can still strike hitters out; plus, the Sox revamped offense will keep him in more games.

17. I expect Angel Pagan to be at least as valuable as last season-Beyond David Wright is there anyone in the Mets lineup to fear?  They will need to manufacture runs.

16. Andre Ethier rebounds to finish around his 2009 numbers—You can probably apply that same logic to most of the Dodgers hitters.  Last season was just odd.

15. Justin Upton stays healthy and gets to 30-30 without being a batting average liability—The same can’t be said for his brother.

14. Check out the even number year/odd number year split for Prince Fielder’s career—There’s no logic to it, but it is 2011.  I’m just saying.

13. Vladimir Guerrero is the best late round chance out there for 30 home runs and 100 RBIs—He’ll hit ten of those home runs on balls no one else would even swing at.

12. Despite the Daniel Hudson hype, I think Madison Bumgarner is a much better value—We’ve even seen him do it in the post-season.

11. I don’t think we see 100 games out of Justin Morneau this season—I would love to see him come back and return to prior form but all the failed return attempts from last year give me pause.

10. Jimmy Rollins is no longer a top ten shortstop—The average has declined each of the last three years and the wear and tear is starting to show.  Health will be a concern again.

9. Alex Rios is in for a big year—Expect the steals to fall off some, but the average and power will improve as he likely sees better pitches hitting third in front of Konerko and Dunn.

8. Kevin Youkilis has more value than is being projected—Remember he’ll be playing third base with Adrian Gonzalez now in Boston, and that’s a fairly shallow position.

7. Brandon Morrow is the most underrated starter in the American League going into the season—Pitching in the AL East is brutal, but he handled it well last year and has 200+ K ability.

6. Tommy Hanson disappoints anyone calling him a fantasy ace—This is purely another gut call.

5. In the battle of the “outfielders Ja(y)son”, Werth easily bests Heyward—This is purely a 2011 prediction.

4. Colby Rasmus disappoints the fantasy baseball world—It won’t be his fault and owners are going to curse Tony LaRussa when he winds up in a platoon situation.

3. Adam Dunn will hit 45 or more home runs—It’s been a long time since he’s seen the kind of lineup protection he’ll enjoy in Chicago.

2. Francisco Rodriguez doesn’t save 30 games—Not the pitcher he once was, and with the off-the-field issues and a club that could finish last in NL East, I just can’t see him keeping it together all season. 

1. Andrew McCutchen is the young hitter most worth reaching for—He’s truly a five tool player and a .300 season with 20 home runs and 40 stolen bases is a definite possibility.

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MLB 2011 Preview: Who Will Pull a Dennis Rodman and Rebound from 2010?

The 2011 MLB season is right around the corner.

Spring training is upon us and players are looking to standout and build up momentum heading into the upcoming season. 

While many of these players are rookies and young talents trying to land a roster spot in the big leagues, some are veterans and proven players who are trying to rebuild their reputation.

Whether they’ve been traded from the AL to the NL, are finally healthy, or were unable to perform in 2010, these players are looking to prove their worth to the baseball community.

The success of these players could make or break their teams success in the coming year, while the second half of their careers could hang in the balance.

We take a look at those once “prime-time” players who are looking to rebound in 2011 after a disappointing 2010.

The top 10 rebound candidates are…

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2011 MLB Predictions: National League Division Winners and Award Favorites

As the NFL season draws to a close and national interest in the NBA continues to plummet on an annual basis, most avid sports fans will begin to direct their attention to baseball and the 2011 MLB season.

Yes! It’s finally that time of year, with pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training earlier this week. 

Baseball spring training means new preseason favorites and predictions for the upcoming 2011 MLB Season.

Many baseball pundits, experts and so-called experts will be publishing their predictions for the 2011 season if they haven’t already.

Most of their predictions for 2011 will be the result of intense scrutiny and research into the statistics and results of the 2010 season, as well as direct interviews with professional baseball players and personnel.

It is important to note that their predictions for the 2011 MLB Season will have little to no bias.

Well, the predictions you are about to read are almost solely based on bias and little to no research. I most certainly haven’t spoken to or interviewed anyone working in the MLB.

Unlike Ken Rosenthal or Tom Verducci, my Rolodex contains only the phone number for Pizza Hut and my friend Steve.

I definitely have watched my fair share of the sport over recent years and would like to think of myself as a knowledgeable fan.

Which is to say, in terms of understanding baseball, I probably rank somewhere between Peter Gammons and the guy who jumps out of his seat every time a ball is popped up into the air thinking it is a home run.

Please, don”t be that guy.

With that being said, you are probably at the edge of your seat waiting to hear my predictions for the National League in the 2011 MLB season.

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MLB Fantasy Baseball Profile: Can Matt Kemp Rebound From His Summer Swoon?

Matt Kemp started the 2010 season like most expected, hitting .285 with 42 runs, 10 home runs, 30 RBI and seven stolen bases. That’s what a player drafted in the first round does.

Unfortunately for Kemp owners, as the weather warmed, his bat cooled, and those owners who enjoyed his hot start were in for a rude awakening. Kemp hit just .230 from June on with 40 runs, 18 HRs, 59 RBI and 12 SBs.

His torrid start had his overall numbers, aside for average, fairly impressive. He hit just .249, but scored 82 runs with 28 HRs, 89 RBI and 19 SBs. So are his declining numbers a cause for concern?

I say no. Kemp is just 26-years-old. If anyone is going to bounce back from a down year it’s him. He averaged 95 runs, 22 HRs, 88.5 RBI and 34.5 SBs in 2008 and 2009. He was a first round pick in most fantasy drafts for a reason.

While I wouldn’t draft him in the first round this year, mainly because you don’t have to as he has an ADP of 24 according to Mock Draft Central, I wouldn’t shy against snagging him in the second round.

He’s a five-category producer. I expect his average to return to .280 or better. I expect his run total to jump into the 90s. While I don’t expect much movement out of his HR total, I do anticipate more RBI and stolen bases. Perhaps next year he’ll return to the first round of fantasy drafts.

 

 

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