Tag: Matt Wieters

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Worthy: Could Brad Davis Be A Usable Option?

Are you in a two-catcher league, and looking for an under the radar option to potentially carry you over the final week of the season?  Surprisingly, there are probably many of you out there, with players like Geovany Soto and Yadier Molina being lost for the year.

We all know that filling out your catcher spots are difficult the deeper your league is, but Brad Davis of the Florida Marlins could be an interesting option to turn to.

First, let’s look at what he has done through Friday:

86 At-Bats
.233 Batting Average (20 Hits)
3 Home Runs
15 RBI
7 Runs
1 Stolen Base
.281 On Base Percentage
.419 Slugging Percentage
.293 Batting Average on Balls in Play

 

The average jumps out at you but before we get to that, let’s first discuss the power.  Let’s be honest, catchers generally don’t hit for the best average, but if they can give you a little boost in power and RBI, owners will happily take it.

He had never had more than 11 HR in a season in the minor leagues, though he did have nine in 247 at-bats at Triple-A prior to his recall (that was in the PCL).  At 27 years old, it’s hard to imagine him suddenly discovering himself and generating more power.

Over his minor-league career he had a fly ball rate of 36.0 percent, and was at just 32.1 percent at Triple-A this year.  Clearly, his presence in the Pacific Coast League helps to explain his increase in 2010.

In the major leagues he’s posted a 34.4 percent fly ball rate with a 14.3 percent HR/FB rate.  Those aren’t unrealistic numbers, so I would say we’ve seen what we are going to get, with maybe a slight regression possible.

Is he going to carry your squad in home runs?  Not likely, but he certainly could give you one or two over the final week, especially with four games against the Pirates to finish the year.

Now, the average, which is a big concern.  While the BABIP is realistic, he has posted a strikeout rate of 32.6 percent.  That’s not even close to his minor-league rate of 21.7 percent (over 1,727 AB).  While it’s easy to expect an increase with the jump, this is a bit too large of a jump, especially when he was at 21.7 percent at Triple-A this year.

If he can get that under control, the average will follow suit.  Still, like I said earlier, if he can hit .250, he’s going to have value.

Just look at some other catchers averages this year:

  • Mike Napoli—.246
  • Jorge Posada—.257
  • Kurt Suzuki—.247
  • Ryan Doumit—.255
  • Matt Wieters—.234

In two-catcher formats, they all have value.  Plus, for just one week, you never really know.  Maybe he catches fire…Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle…

At a shallow position, he’s well worth the risk.  If you are desperate for a replacement, roll the dice and hope for the best.

What are your thoughts on Davis?  Is he usable down the stretch?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out some of our other recent waiver wire articles:

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Fantasy Baseball: Three Disappointing Hitters To Buy Low

Every season has its share of surprises and disappointments, but some players play so far below expectations that they are tossed away to the darkest places on your free agent wire or oppositions’ roster. However, as the season continues marching toward September, some players begin to emerge from the darkness. By the way, what ever happened to The Darkness ?

These three players represent the biggest of the busts (think clean thoughts people), but they also represent some hope for a late season’s surge.
Using Yahoo! owned percentages

 
Aaron Hill – 75 percent
Hill’s monstrous 2009 performance has been followed up by a miserable .211/.286/.390 line to this point. However, the power numbers have still been quite good and ZiPS projects seven more home runs this season, which would give Hill 23 by season’s end. The problem has been a severe lack of line drives. For most of the season, Hill’s line drive rate was sitting around an extremely low nine percent. That rate has been trending in the right direction over the last month or so.

 

In July, Hill raised his line drive rate to 15 percent, which is still not good, but an improvement. In 15 at-bats so far this month, Hill is 6-for-15 with two home runs.
If you need a second baseman, with some potential to put up good power numbers over the season’s final two months (Hill hit seven home runs in May), then try buying low on Hill before he really gets his home runs swing working.

 
Pablo Sandoval – 88 percent
Sandoval is a free swinger, we all know that, but he is a very good contact hitter. Last season, Sandoval got by with his free swinging ways. A .350 BABIP with only an 18 percent line drive rate helped in that regard, but this season his hacking ways have made him a fantasy bust.

Last season, Kung Fu Panda swung at pitches outside the strike-zone almost 42 percent of the time. That is an astonishingly high chase rate, but this season Sandoval is going after even more bad pitches (44 percent). Clearly, as the results continued to turn out negative, Sandoval lost some of his confidence. As a result, Sandoval has been less aggressive on pitches in the strike-zone.

Swinging at fewer good pitches and more bad pitches is never a good thing.

(O-Sw = Swings at pitches outside the strike-zone, Z-Sw = Swings at pitches inside the strike-zone)

Season

O-Sw %

Z-Sw %

2009

41.7%

83.0%

2010

44.1%

77.1%

This approach has led to a very low 16.7 percent line drive rate, but just like Aaron Hill (even more so than Aaron Hill), Sandoval is showing signs of regaining his stroke.

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In July, Sandoval maintained a 20 percent line drive rate. Despite hitting more line drives, Sandoval’s BABIP was only .286. If Sandoval can continue to hit line drives and has a bit more luck in BABIP, there is a chance his AVG and confidence rises over these last two months. We’ve all seen how big his potential is.

Matt Wieters – 71 percent
Every now and again I hear someone at a ballgame or bar yell out the line from Old School, “You’re my boy Blue!” It’s been almost two full seasons since I first got on the Weiters train and still to this day, every once and a while, and not as loud, I say to myself, “You’re my boy Matt. You’re my boy.”

There have been times when it felt like Weiters had left this earth as I couldn’t seem to find him in any highlights or any statistical leader boards. But things started to shift a little last month and the plate discipline that I loved from his minor league days may have returned.

A look at Weiters’ overall numbers makes me cringe. A .258 AVG and eight home runs doesn’t spark much enthusiasm, but in July Wieters hit .289 and drew eight walks to only three strikeouts in 54 plate appearances. Also in July, Wieters held a season high 23.3 percent line drive rate.

He simply looks more comfortable and confident at the plate and his upside is among the best in the game. If you need to make a move for a catcher and want to buy low, Wieters might just be the man for the job.

Charlie Saponara is the owner/author of FantasyBaseball365.com and can be contacted at cs.fb365@gmail.com .  You can follow FB365 on Twitter .  Charlie also writes for Fire Brand of the American League and Project Prospect .

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Trade Deadline: GMs Too Chicken To Trade “Can’t-Miss” Prospects

 

The line from a pithy sportswriter was legendary in both its smarminess and its eventual inaccuracy.

“He would be a great pitcher,” the words from a now yellowed news clipping said, “if the plate was high and outside.”

Sandy Koufax barreled into the big leagues with the Brooklyn Dodgers with a prized left arm but with absolutely no control over it. The next pitch could be a perfect strike or end up in Secaucus.

Koufax, before he became arguably the greatest left-handed pitcher of all time, started his career with six seasons of trying to gain dominion over the strike zone. It was epic in its scope.

Koufax and the strike zone was baseball’s Captain Ahab and Moby Dick.

But unlike Ahab’s elusive whale, Koufax’s demon stared him straight in the face, mocking him. The strike zone was hidden in plain sight during Koufax’s early years with the Dodgers.

Compiling Koufax’s statistics from his rookie year of 1955 thru 1960, it’s discovered that Sandy averaged 4.6 walks per nine innings pitched. You could get to first base with Koufax easier than you could with the town floozy.

Then something clicked, and from 1961 thru the end of his career in 1966, Koufax dominated National League hitters and surrendered just 2.4 walks per nine innings. Koufax had become the reverse Clint Hartung.

Clint Hartung died a few weeks ago at age 87. His legend will live on, and I’m about to make sure of it.

Hartung was a 6’5”, 210-pound pitcher/outfielder from Hondo, Texas. With a town called Hondo and in a state like Texas, being 6’5” must have been a requirement.

Hartung was a blue chip prospect, a can’t-miss kid. The Minneapolis Millers of the old Northern League signed Hartung in 1942. He was shortly thereafter drafted into WW II, where he played on military teams against other drafted pros.

As a pitcher, he went 25-0 during the war years, striking out an average of 15 batters per game. As an outfielder, he batted .567.

The New York Giants signed him in 1946 for a then-high sum of $35,000.

Sportswriter Tom Meany said, “Rather than stop at the Polo Grounds, they should have taken him straight to Cooperstown.”

Clint Hartung was supposed to make Northern Manhattan go crazy as a modern day Babe Ruth: a player whose pitching prowess was only matched by his hitting acumen.

Instead, Hartung became the poster child for the overhyped rookie.

Hartung pitched just 511 innings in the big leagues, compiling a 29-29 record and a 5.02 ERA. In 378 at-bats, he hit .238 and struck out 112 times.

Koufax was the reverse Hartung because he started as a flop and then earned his hype. The lesson? You never really know with prospects, do you?

The can’t-miss kid exists in every big league organization.

He’s somewhere—whether in the lowest of the minors, or in Double-A, or maybe even on the 25-man major league roster. He’s young and sleek and wows the scouts and general managers with his “tools.” If he’s a pitcher, he’s said to have stuff that’s “nasty” and “filthy.”

The can’t-miss kid is a blue chip prospect that holds up trades between big league teams on an annual basis—right about now, as a matter of fact.

The inter-league, non-waiver trading deadline in Major League Baseball is upon us. As I bang on my keyboard, the deadline for making trades between the two leagues without the necessity of players clearing waivers is about 15 hours away.

Big names have been mentioned as destined to be wearing different uniforms come Sunday morning. The usual pre-deadline rumor mill, churning as briskly as ever.

Whether these big names get moved will largely depend on certain GMs and their hesitancy to trade their so-called can’t-miss, blue chip prospects.

There are still a bunch of Clint Hartungs lurking in every big league organization. And they are going to determine the fate of pennant races in both leagues—either by their being traded, or by their GM’s reluctance thereof.

Matt Wieters is a catcher for the Baltimore Orioles who was supposed to be the next coming of Johnny Bench—or at the very least, Joe Mauer. Wieters’ debut with the sad-sack Orioles was looked forward to with almost biblical anticipation.

Wieters is 6’5”—there’s that measurement again—and bats left-handed. He’s 24 years old and was the Orioles’ first-round draft pick of 2007. He was touted as the organization’s designated can’t-miss kid.

Wieters debuted for the Orioles in May 2009 against the Tigers. In his second game, Wieters had a double and a triple and scored a run.

But after 28 at-bats, Wieters had just four hits.

His year-end numbers were OK: .288 BA, nine HR, 43 RBI in 354 at-bats.

Hardly numbers that make your eyes pop out.

This year, Wieters is hitting .248, striking out every five at-bats and the Orioles are still lousy.

Yet if it had been suggested a couple years ago that the Orioles trade Wieters for an established big league player, the suggester would have been tossed into the Potomac.

Hey, remember Cameron Maybin?

He was the Tigers’ designated can’t-miss kid from a few years back. Maybin, an outfielder, was said to have all the “tools” that baseball people fawn over.

Maybin was practically an untouchable prospect—a blue chip that would never be seriously considered to be played at the blackjack table.

The Tigers rushed him to the big leagues in 2007 and plopped him into the lineup in Yankee Stadium during an important August series. That’s not a debut, that’s a blood-letting.

Maybin proved to be not ready for the majors.

In December, 2007, the Tigers did the unthinkable and traded Maybin, along with pitcher Andrew Miller, to the Florida Marlins.

Slugger Miguel Cabrera wouldn’t be performing feats of mass destruction as a Tiger had GM Dave Dombrowski not played the Maybin blue chip.

Maybin has compiled very pedestrian numbers as a Marlin since 2008. Currently, he’s batting .225 with a truckload of strikeouts, while Cabrera flirts with a Triple Crown and MVP contention.

Prospects are just that, while established big league players are also just that.

Give me an established player over a prospect any day!

Suck it up, trade the can’t-miss kids if they’ll net prime time players, and go get more prospects. That’s why you’re paying your scouting staff, right?

Oh, the trades that could be made if can’t-miss kids were included in deals more often. So few GMs have the guts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball: Five 2nd Half Buy Low Candidates: Hitter’s Edition

We all know that there are certain players who have struggled through the first half of the season. We also know that there are players who notoriously produce better in the second half. Here are five hitters that other owners in your league may be ready to give up on, yet could produce plenty of value in the second half (all stats are through Sunday):

Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees
He’s always been a slow starter, though 2010 has been an extreme case. Still, just looking at his second half numbers from the past few seasons gives us an idea of what he can do:

  • 2006 – .291, 24 HR, 61 RBI, 51 R
  • 2007 – .309, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 45 R
  • 2008 – .366, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 48 R
  • 2009 – .313, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 47 R

There are a lot of numbers that we can also point to that indicate an improvement should be coming.  First is his BABIP, which is currently at .258. Considering that his career low is .288, which came in his rookie year of 2003, you have to believe that a resurgence is going to come sooner or later.

Second is his HR/FB, which is also at a career low (11.9 percent). He’s never had a mark below 17.8 percent, and he plays in a park that proved to be a hitters haven in 2009. It’s certainly easy to imagine him still surpassing 30 (he’s currently at 13) by year’s end.

While he’s not likely to live up to the first round expectations, you have to know that Teixeira has a hot streak in him. He’s started showing signs, so now may be your last chance to get him at a discount. If someone in your league is fed up with him, he’s well worth the acquisition.

Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles

To say that he’s been a major disappointment is an understatement, despite the solid average. He’s currently hitting .307 with four HR, 27 RBI, and 34 R. So yet again, he has failed to take that next step forward in his progression. Then again, considering he was likely taken as a number two outfielder, he has just failed to produce…period.

There’s nothing in the numbers to make us think that he can’t turn things around. His fly ball rate is down from last season, but right along his career mark (36.2 percent in ‘10 vs. 35.5 percent for his career). His HR/FB, which was over 11.5 percent from 2006-2008, is at just 4.3 percent this season.

He does continue to rip doubles, at 25 for the season, putting him just one behind the leaders (Marlon Byrd & Jayson Werth each have 26).  Sooner or later, some of those balls are going to find their way over the fence. Last season he hit 10 HR in the second half and is not far removed from a 14 HR second half in 2007.

He has been hurt by the absence of Brian Roberts, but if he keeps hitting (which he easily could), the RBI and R will come with it. Couple that with increased power and you certainly have the potential to get a steal. Considering where he was drafted and what you may have to give up to get him, he’s a great buy right now.

Adam Lind – Toronto Blue Jays

It is beginning to look like last season’s 35 HR was a bit of an aberration. All you have to do is look at his HR/FB for the past four seasons to get that indication:

  • 2007 – 13.3 percent
  • 2008 – 11.0 percent
  • 2009 – 19.8 percent
  • 2010 – 10.6 percent

Even if he could just get things back to the 2007 mark, there’s reason for optimism, especially when you throw in his BABIP. He’s had terrible luck (.245), and also has been striking out a tremendous amount (27.5 percent).

If he can reduce the strikeouts (he was at 18.1 percent in ‘08 and 18.7 percent in ‘09) and see improved luck, the average will come around. It’s possible he’s trying to hit home runs after his breakout, as his fly ball rate has gone from 36.8 percent to 42.3 percent. Still, it’s hard to believe that it will be a completely lost season.

Now is your opportunity to get him for pennies on the dollar (I actually saw him on the waiver wire of a five outfielder format last week) and given what he did in ‘09, he’s certainly worth the risk.

Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles
I’ve discussed him before, but it bears repeating. We have all heard about his potential, but he has not quite shown it yet. His home run per fly ball rate is under 10.0 percent (currently at 8.2 percent). His BABIP is below average, at .283.

Granted, he hasn’t hit many extra base hits (nine doubles and six home runs), but this is still his first full season. He’s now had over 600 total at bats, so it is certainly possible that something clicks in the second half.

Given the lack of depth at the position, he’s certainly worth the gamble.

Carlos Lee – Houston Astros

He’s hit .300 each of the last four seasons and has a career .288 average. Yet, we are supposed to believe he’s a .232 hitter in 2010?

Fat chance. He’s had some terrible luck, with a .232 BABIP. He also just hasn’t had the same type of power, with a HR/FB of 7.9 percent vs. a career mark of 13.0 percent.

Playing in that ballpark, there’s no chance that either of those things continue. Just look at his second half marks from the past few seasons:

  • 2007 – .311, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 45 R
  • 2008 – .372, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 15 R (in just 78 AB)
  • 2009 – .291, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 30 R

While he’s not a notorious slow starter, there’s little question about his bat. If you need runs scored, he’s not the answer. However, if you are looking for some power in the second half, he’s well worth the gamble.

What are your thoughts on these five players? Would you try to buy low on any of them?  Who else are you targeting in your leagues?

Make sure to check out our recent Scouting Reports:

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Revisiting the 2007 MLB Draft: Three Years on, Who Came Out on Top?

The 2007 first year player draft was very pitcher-heavy, but with the exception of the No. 1 overall selection, some of the biggest names to come out of it were actually position players.

A total of 18 pitchers were called in the first round alone, led by Vanderbilt graduate David Price, but there was good overall depth in the draft, especially through the first three rounds.

How many GMs do you think are out there right now still kicking themselves that Jason Heyward fell to No. 14? How about the fact that one of the brightest pitching prospects in the game, Jordan Zimmerman, didn’t go at all in the first round? Did Florida hit the jackpot in Mike Stanton with the 76th overall selection?

With just one week to go until the 2010 draft, Bleacher Report looks back to see who came out on top this time three years ago.

Major League success and experience weighs the most here, with Minor League contributions and potential assessed from AAA down to single-A.

As always, feel free to let me know your thoughts.

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Young Guns Grip It And Rip It: The Top 5 Power Hitters Under 23

We all know the names of guys like Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Teixeira, and Rodriguez. They’ve been the league leaders in power numbers for most of this past decade.

But now that 2010 is here and a new decade has dawned, who is poised to step into the limelight? Who among the nameless, faceless masses is ready to become the next HR king?

My criteria is as follows:

Player must be no more than 23 years old.
Player must have no more than 500 MLB at bats.
Player must not be a Buffalo Bills fan. I won’t put up with that crap.

So without further ado, here’s your Top 5 Power Hitters under 23:

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Which Young Combo is better, Hanson-Heyward or Matusz-Wieters?

Earlier this week, I asked a question on my twitter account: “Is there a better young pitcher/hitter combination in baseball than Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward?”

Jordan from OriolesProspects.com, and @oriolesprospects on twitter, responded with Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz. The question and answer sparked both of our interests, so we decided to construct an article in which Jordan would make the argument for his Orioles, and I would make the argument for the Braves.

We both made our arguments a bit differently. Jordan went with an actual rating system whereas I just posted their numbers. You be the judge, comment below and gives us your thoughts or hit us up on twitter and voice your opinion. I’m @Ben_Duronio and Jordan is @oriolesprospects, as previously mentioned

Here is what we both had to say:

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MLB Report: Do the Baltimore Orioles Have Any All-Stars in 2010?

Last year when the Baltimore Orioles had a 64-98 finish, there was another disappointing fact behind the season: the team had only one All-Star—Adam Jones.

Jones ended up on the All-Star team last year as a reserve after a strong 1st half.

The question this year is: who is going to represent Baltimore for this year’s 2010 All-Star game in Los Angeles?

The only former All-Stars on this year’s roster are Kevin Millwood (who joined the club via trade), Miguel Tejada (who decided to return to Baltimore via free agency), and last year’s outfielder Adam Jones.

Don’t worry, though, because there are a few strong candidates on the 2010 Orioles.

 

Matt Wieters

He’s been called the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer.

Last year in 96 games, he showed he is ready for the big leagues—posting a .288 average. The more experience he gets, the more dangerous he becomes.

Wieters seems to be on the radar, as he is a fan favorite, too.

 

Nick Markakis

His breakout year was 2007, where he hit 23 HRs and drove in 112 RBIs with a .300 batting average.

Last year in 2009, he hit only 18 HRs, but with a .296 average 101 RBIs. He might not have filled his potential yet—which was be a 5 tool player—but he still has the numbers to be an All-Star.

Don’t be surprised to see him in LA this summer.

 

Miguel Tejada

You might not see the Tejada from his early years with Baltimore, but this guy can still hit, as he was a reserve All-Star last year. In 2009, he finished his fine season with 199 hits.

His power has decreased over the years, but he maintains good fielding skills along with a high contact rate in the batter’s box.

 

Kevin Millwood

The only well experienced starting pitcher on the Orioles’ staff, Millwood looks to regain his old self, when he had an ERA of 2.86 and won more than 13 games.

A former All-Star, he has been inconsistent over the last couple of years. For example, he posted an ERA over 5.00 in 2008, but rebounded with a 3.67 ERA 13 win season.

With Millwood, anything can happen with him. Consider him a sleeper.

 

Adam Jones

Oh boy.

He disappointed Orioles fans and fantasy owners in the 2nd half last season, finishing with a .277 average.

He isn’t off to the fastest start this year either. But no worries, this kid can play. Jones was an All-Star in 2009, and he wants to become another one this year.

His motivation and massive potential will keep him on the radar. 

 

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