Kuzul

That asking price isn’t looking so outrageous right now.

Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer surprised nobody by throwing his first career no-hitter Saturday. It came against the Pittsburgh Pirates and with little drama, as there was hardly a close call. And considering how dominant the ace right-hander has been recently, this might have been the least surprising no-no in Major League Baseball history.

Scherzer entered this home start against the Pirates coming off a road outing in Milwaukee in which he lost a perfect game on a broken-bat blooper by Carlos Gomez in the seventh inning last Sunday. This time, the perfect game was broken up with two outs in the ninth inning—by Jose Tabata’s elbow. Scherzer hit him with a two-strike pitch before polishing off what ended up being somewhat of an anticlimactic finish despite the zero hits, zero walks and 10 strikeouts.

He became the first pitcher since 1944 to allow one or fewer hits in consecutive complete games. Just, wow.

And his next start could come against a putrid Philadelphia Phillies lineup. That will be a must-watch game involving a last-place club.

#MadMax is not from this planet. #LightsOut pic.twitter.com/tL2VmVCYGR

— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) June 20, 2015

Because we are in about the sixth installment of the Year of the Pitcher, feats like Scherzer’s do not have as much pizzazz as they once did. There have been 25 no-hitters since the start of the 2010 season and at least two per year since the 2007 season. We have also seen pitchers in both leagues sweep the Cy Young and MVP awards since 2011. 

Regardless of the regularity of no-hitters and overall pitching dominance in this era, the Nationals are looking marvelous for shelling out the seven years and $210 million it took to land Scherzer over the offseason. In Year 1 of the deal, he has produced a 1.76 ERA, 123 strikeouts and 14 walks in 102.1 innings, and the Nationals have won nine of his 14 starts. 

“Tenacity is the key,” Nationals manager Matt Williams told reporters Saturday, prior to the no-hitter. “He’s a fun-loving guy for four days a week, and then the fifth day when he pitches, he’s a different animal.” 

Scherzer has been a bargain in an age when we know 30-something pitchers with long-term contracts do not get to hold that kind of distinction. As the game penalizes higher payrolls with taxes and teams try to curb their long-term spending, Scherzer is a rarity so far.

Even some of his teammates think so.

Someone give that guy a raise. @Max_Scherzer

— Drew Storen (@DrewStoren) June 20, 2015

The Pirates were evolved enough to comprehend the kind of sheer dominance Scherzer had just smothered them in.

“You have to find it in your baseball heart,” Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle told reporters, “to appreciate that performance.”

Scherzer will turn 31 in about a month, and he is well on his way to a third consecutive season of pitching at least 200 innings. He is already the National League Cy Young Award front-runner and has easily been the most dominant pitcher in the majors. 

He has shown signs of only getting better, and now that he is in the more pitcher-friendly league, we could see more of this from Scherzer for the next few seasons.

Because he just reached his prime in 2013, it is entirely possible for Scherzer to abuse lineups well into his next decade. Comparing him to one of the best pitchers the sport has ever seen might not be totally fair at this point, but it’s not an absurd thought that Scherzer could go into his late 30s with the same kind of production Randy Johnson had—125-42, 2.63 ERA, 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings and a 175 ERA-plus— between ages 32 and 38.

There is risk. Everyone knows that. The Nationals knew that when they signed Scherzer, as did every team that was unwilling to plop more than $200 million on the table for a pitcher entering his 30s—a time when pitchers typically do not age well and decline is imminent.

That history aside, Scherzer looks like the best free-agent pitching signing in a long time. While CC Sabathia (pre-extension) and Zack Greinke have been good, even great at times, Scherzer’s start with the Nationals has already been otherworldly in an era when such pitching hyperbole is commonplace. This near-perfect game is just more early proof.

Whenever he declines—which he will over the duration of his seven-year deal, and the Nationals are funneling him $35 million annually—it could all be worth it. If Scherzer is the ace who leads the franchise to a World Series, its first ever, at any point in the next seven years—again, if he is the arm leading—the entirety of the contract will be worth spending for the softer years.

If he puts a trophy in the case, then yes, Scherzer will be a bargain.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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A hotly contested topic among the baseball world in the past week (and for quite some time now) has been whether or not the National League should change its rules to institute the use of the designated hitter. The American League adopted the DH in 1973, yet the Senior Circuit has remained surprisingly resilient through the years.

However, National League owners may be under increased pressure to make a change.

The debate was jump-started when St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, one of the elite starting pitchers in the MLB, tore his Achilles tendon running out of the batter’s box after putting the ball in play. The club announced that he would miss the rest of the season, which is a crippling blow to a St. Louis squad trying to advance to the NLCS for the fifth consecutive year.

Washington Nationals hurler Max Scherzer was the first to rally behind Wainwright’s banner. He told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports that he would not be opposed to bringing the DH to the National League, saying that it would be a great way to increase scoring and make the game more entertaining.

“If you look at it from the macro side, who’d people rather see hit—Big Papi or me?” Scherzer said. “Who would people rather see, a real hitter hitting home runs or a pitcher swinging a wet newspaper? Both leagues need to be on the same set of rules.”

This logic makes sense from Mad Max—having a designated hitter batting instead of a pitcher would make the game more fun to watch and ostensibly give the fans more bang for their buck. But his initial claims were met with a flurry of other opinions, and most weren’t in agreement with his.

Madison Bumgarner was the first to publicly disagree. The San Francisco Giants left-hander also happens to be one of the best hitting pitchers in the league, and he was not afraid to come down hard on Scherzer.

This was his comment to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News about the Wainwright injury and the possibility of the DH entering National League play:

What if he got hurt pitching? Should we say he can’t pitch anymore? I hate what happened to him. He works his butt off out there. But I don’t think it was because he was hitting. What if he gets hurt getting out of his truck? You tell him not to drive anymore? That’s the way the game has to be played. I appreciate both sides of the argument and I get it. But [ending pitcher plate appearances] isn’t the way to go about [addressing] it.

That is an excellent point as well. It was an Achilles injury that Wainwright suffered. If that part of his body was going to tear, it could have been anywhere. He could just as easily have injured it pitching off the mound or covering first base as he did jogging out of the box.

One of Bumgarner‘s teammates, Jake Peavy, gave another reason why the designated hitter must stay away. He began by talking about a situation last year when Bumgarner hit against the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ Zack Greinke in the eighth inning. It was late in the season in a crucial situation, and manager Bruce Bochy didn’t have to go to a pinch hitter and then a reliever. 

“We have a distinct advantage because of what he can do at the plate,” Peavy said, per Baggarly. “We’d take a ton of strategy out of our game. The bench player is so much more important a part of the game. Managers have their say in how the game is played out.

“As pitchers, it’s about taking pride in batting and baserunning and getting a bunt down or putting it in play. If you do that better than the other pitcher, you’ve got an advantage.”

For Scherzer, even his own general manager is not on his side. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo—who gave Scherzer a $210 million contract this offseason—went on record against the DH earlier this week.

Rizzo was very adamant on a Wednesday radio appearance he made on 106.7 The Fan that he will never favor the DH.

I hate the DH. I always have hated the DH. I would hate to see the DH in the National League, and I love the National League brand of baseball. Now, I worked with the Chicago White Sox for years, and the Boston Red Sox for years in the American League, and I’m a much bigger fan of the National League style of play, with the pitcher pitching and all the strategy that that employs. 

That’s my favorite part of this whole argument. The phrase “the strategy it employs.” Personally, that is one of the things I enjoy about the game of baseball. The managers competing in a chess match throughout the ballgame is arguably the most compelling thing about baseball and the main reason I like the National League better than the American League.

In the American League, the manager does not have nearly as many factors to worry about, most notably pinch hitting for the pitcher. To illustrate this, I’ll introduce a common situation in baseball. 

Let’s say Team A is winning by two runs in the seventh inning and the pitcher is due up next with runners on first and second with one out. The manager has a tough decision on his hands: Does he leave the pitcher in the game to pitch another inning even though it likely means they won’t tack on any runs that inning, or does he elect to use a pinch hitter in an attempt to add some cushion to the lead even though that move will result in leaning heavily on the bullpen to finish the game?

An American League manager is never faced with this dilemma. All he has to do is monitor the pitcher, and when he gets tired or ineffective, put in a reliever.

The Junior Circuit also does not incorporate nearly as many situational pitching changes or as much bunting as the National League does.

Now some fans don’t really care much about some of the finer points of the game—they prefer to see guys hit the ball as far as they can in high-scoring games, and that is perfectly fine. They can stick with the American League, but the NL does not need to change its rulebook to satisfy those fans.

The final witness in this trial is someone who should know better than anyone. Cubs manager Joe Maddon has spent time in both leagues, and even though he has only been in Chicago for a few months, he has already adapted the National League style of play and is against bringing the DH to the NL.

“That’s part of the game,” Maddon said, via the Chicago Tribune, about Wainwright’s injury. “That’s the way it works. It’s unfortunate. It stinks. I like the National League the way it sets. It’s a really interesting baseball game.”

Ultimately, it will be up to NL owners on whether or not they eventually adopt the DH. They might do it sometime in the future, but they don’t need to. Their brand of baseball is more of a traditional style of play, and contrary to popular belief there are still some old-fashioned baseball fans out there who have the attention spans to watch an entire game even if substitutions and pitching changes are involved.

In my opinion, the game is much better with all nine fielders hitting for themselves. It forces players to be more well-rounded, and it makes it more interesting from a strategy standpoint. Also, it results in more intriguing scouting, as pitchers handy with the bat continue to become more and more rare. As the Giants do right now with Bumgarner, NL teams with pitchers who can hit have a tremendous advantage over their opponents, and that is nothing to sneeze at.

Either way, this is a very polarizing debate. Each side has its pros and cons, and baseball pundits, coaches and players are obviously not afraid to state their case.

Bumgarner, Peavy, Rizzo and Maddon are for the DH staying the heck away from the National League, and I wholeheartedly agree with their arguments.

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Max Scherzer has been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball since 2009, but the Washington Nationals ace is dealing with a sprained right thumb.     

Continue for updates.

Scherzer Throws Off Mound

Tuesday, April 28

The Nationals announced Scherzer threw off a mound and threw all of his pitches on Tuesday. They also noted his next start date remains unclear.

On April 27, Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi noted the details of Scherzer‘s thumb injury:

Scherzer, 30, is 1-2 this season with a 1.26 ERA and 29 strikeouts over four starts. 

One reason that Scherzer was able to get a $210 million contract from the Nationals in the offseason is because of his consistency. The prized right-hander has made at least 30 starts in six consecutive seasons and has thrown at least 187.2 innings in five straight campaigns. 

It’s no secret that durability decreases as you get older, though The Associated Press (h/t SportsNet Canada) broke down the numbers to show how rapid the decline usually is for pitchers who sign $100-plus million contracts:

The $100 million pitchers have combined to average a 12-9 record and 3.39 ERA during the first four seasons of their deals, according to STATS. During the remaining years, they fell to a 7-7 record and 4.43 ERA.

Durability decreases dramatically, with the group averaging 205 innings in first seasons, 178 by the third year, and 132 by the fifth.

The silver lining for Washington, whether Scherzer is only out for a short time or facing a lengthy absence, is that the rotation is loaded with talent. Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister would be No. 1 starters on most teams, while Gio Gonzalez had a 3.57 ERA with 162 strikeouts in 158.2 innings last year.

While Scherzer adds a different dynamic, the Nationals are one of the few teams equipped to deal with this scenario without suffering a significant drop in production.  

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The offseason has been a blur, one blockbuster move after another changing the landscape as we knew it just hours before.

Brash and fearless front offices shuttling out superstars, bringing in others and changing the complexion of divisions has been the norm since before Thanksgiving. In what has become one of the most active and maybe surprising fall-winter seasons in recent memory, the balance of power has shifted in every division in both leagues over the course of three-and-a-half months.

All pitchers and catchers should be reported to their spring training camps by the end of next week—barring any odd happenings, of course—and optimism will run rampant at all of them. The reality of any club’s situation never really hits until around late June, when party lines are clearly drawn and the best teams start to distinguish themselves.

In the world of prognostication and prediction, we don’t have the luxury of waiting for things to play out. In this world, we play the games on paper because we want answers, and we need them now.

So, with about all of the roster shuffling complete and spring training a few sleeps away, let’s get to predicting what things will look like come Oct. 4.

Begin Slideshow

For a Major League Baseball superstar, the pressure is inherited with the title.

That much is a given. Whether it is a player’s past production or simply his price tag, the stars of the game are looked upon to be among the best. This becomes especially true when that player’s team is expected to win. There is little pressure on a player like Joe Mauer, whose season is not expected to dictate how his team fares.

However, for other players, the pressure is going to be turned way up this year. And the abundance of those players has grown now that there is an extra Wild Card playoff slot and since a team not believed to be a championship contender at the start of last season—the Kansas City Royals—came within one swing of winning the World Series. Now even star players on fringe teams are feeling the heat.

This season it is easy to go up and down rosters and find these players. The massive amount of turnover through trades and free agency this offseason makes this even more so since those superstars are now expected to live up to marquee billings for different franchises.

It was easy to pick out more than 10 players who fit this bill, but for round-numbers’ sake, here they are in no particular order (you can determine that at the barstool or water cooler):

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The signing of free agent Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210 million contract improved the Washington Nationals’ starting rotation from arguably the best to undoubtedly the best in baseball.

The Nats will enter the 2015 season with three No. 1 starters in Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, with Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister and Tanner Roark “filling out” the staff. However, the Scherzer signing also led to speculation that the Nats now might be more inclined to trade from their pitching depth.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted that Washington would be willing to deal either Zimmermann or Strasburg if they landed Scherzer, which makes sense, as Zimmermann is set to become a free agent after the 2015 season and likely to command a monster free-agent contract, while Strasburg is set to follow in his footsteps the following year.

But there’s one other major reason the Nationals seemingly are willing to consider dealing young talents such as Zimmermann and Strasburg: They have baseball’s top pitching prospect in 20-year-old right-hander Lucas Giolito.

Giolito was viewed as a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2012 draft after the right-hander lit up radar guns with his fastball and dropped jaws with his curveball early in the spring for Harvard-Westlake High School (California).

Unfortunately, Giolito suffered a strained ligament in his right elbow roughly two months into the season and was shut down indefinitely. He avoided surgery, but the injury ultimately cost Giolito the remainder of his high school campaign and the chance to be the first prep right-hander drafted No. 1 overall.

Yet even though Giolito missed most of the spring, the Washington Nationals still selected the right-hander with the No. 16 overall selection in the 2012 draft and offered him a $2.925 million signing bonus.

Making his first professional start later that summer, Giolito made it just two innings in the game before his elbow flared up once again. This time, however, there would be no rest and rehab, as he was forced to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.

After 10 months on the shelf, Giolito returned to the mound late in the 2013 season to post a 1.96 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 36.2 innings between the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues.

Suffice it to say, expectations were high for Giolito headed into 2014. Amazingly, the 20-year-old did not disappoint.

In his first full season back from surgery, not to mention his first full season as a professional, Giolito led the Low-A South Atlantic League (among pitchers with 90 innings) in ERA (2.20), strikeout percentage (28.5 percent) and opponents’ batting average (.196), per FanGraphs. The Nationals shut down the right-hander after 98 innings due to the organization’s protocol with young pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, according to Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post.

“Getting that first year out of the way, it was kind of a special situation for me,” Giolito said via Byron Kerr of MASNSports.com. “Because it was my first full year of pro ball and it was my first year back from Tommy John. Now I’m fully healthy and the surgery is well behind me. And I’m a little bit more experienced. I have been a pro for about three years now. I have a full year under my belt. I feel prepared for what’s next to come.”

When I saw Giolito make his second start of the 2014 season for Low-A Hagerstown, the 20-year-old fired five shutout innings against Low-A Lakewood, allowing one hit and one walk with six strikeouts.

He never threw more than 17 pitches in an inning and needed only 61 to complete the outing. The lone hit he surrendered was a two-out double to Samuel Hiciano in the third inning. Besides that, it was mostly strikeouts and weak contact (six groundouts, one flyout).

Giolito throws both a two- and four-seam fastball, with the latter consistently registering in the 94 to 96 mph range and the two-seamer at 91 to 93. Based on velocity alone, the pitch grades as a 65 or 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale), but everything about Giolito—his size, mechanics, arm action, prior workload—suggests that more velocity will come with development. It doesn’t take much to envision him sitting in the upper 90s by the time he reaches the major leagues.

In terms of usage, Giolito throws more four-seamers to left-handed batters, and he does a nice job changing hitters’ eye levels vertically so as to set up both secondary offerings. He’ll overthrow a few of them over the course of a game, ripping open with his glove side and falling off toward first base, but he’s cognizant of his mechanics and therefore is quick to make adjustments during subsequent pitches.

Giolito’s curveball is possibly the best I’ve personally scouted in the last four years—a future 75 offering. Working from the same over-the-top arm angle as his fastball, he throws the pitch in the 76 to 83 mph range with legitimate 12-to-6 break and sharp, downer bite.

He shows the ability to add and subtract with the pitch depending on the batter and count, consistently throwing it 78 to 81 mph for a called strike and then throwing a harder-biting version at 82 to 83 mph when vying for a whiff.

Meanwhile, the consistency and effectiveness of Giolito’s changeup was a pleasant surprise last season. The right-hander threw the pitch only three times when I saw him in April, but each time, he delivered it with a deceptive arm action and good speed differential in the low 80s. Giolito’s changeup grades as at least a future grade-60 offering, giving him three pitches which project as above average or better at maturity.

Giolito spoke in depth with Kerr about the pitch:

The changeup, when I was throwing it in high school, it wasn’t really a pitch I went to. I didn’t really have a good feel for it. After surgery, it kind of just came to me. I came back from my throwing program and my changeup was already in the workings of being there. I could throw it consistently for a strike.

Since then, I have been hammering it out. I really feel that it’s one of my stronger pitches. It’s a go to pitch in any count. I threw it 3-1 and 2-0 a lot last year. I feel that when you throw (it) in those kind of situations, you have a lot of success.

A lot can happen to any 20-year-old pitcher between A-ball and the time he reaches the major leagues. In Giolito’s case, the right-hander should have the chance to be a legitimate No. 1 starter at maturity so long as he stays healthy and continues down his current developmental path.

Both Giolito and the Nationals say that the right-hander is 100 percent healthy heading into 2015. However, that doesn’t mean he’ll be rushed up the ladder to the major leagues—not even if the team ultimately decides to trade Zimmermann or Strasburg.

“We understand the development process for someone coming off his surgery,” said Mark Scialabba, the Nationals’ director of player development, via Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post.

“We have to understand there are still goals to reach. We are going to proceed like with our previous players who have gone through this surgery, but also understand that he’s a special, unique talent.”

The Nationals’ pitching depth, even if the team makes a trade, will allow them to develop Giolito cautiously and thoroughly. Therefore, he likely will begin 2015 at High-A Potomac in the Carolina League, and if all goes as planned with his development, the right-hander should log some time at Double-A Harrisburg, too.

The organization might play it by ear after that, but all signs point to Giolito reaching the major leagues sometime during the 2016 season.

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Ever since Max Scherzer turned down a $144 million offer from the Detroit Tigers last March, speculation has been rampant about which team he would sign with and how much his contract would be worth.  Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported in early December that Scherzer’s asking price was around $200 million, but throughout the free-agent process, he stayed in the shadows.

But his agent, Scott Boras, came through again in a big way late Sunday night, as Scherzer inked a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Washington Nationals.

That he signed with the Nats is a bit surprising due to their already-loaded starting rotation.  Last year, they led Major League Baseball with a 3.03 staff ERA.  The prevailing philosophy is that you can’t have too much pitching, but if anyone is tiptoeing that line, it’s the Nationals.  With Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez, Washington has one of the best five-man rotations in recent memory.

The rotation is so good that Tanner Roark, who had a terrific season last year with a 15-10 record and a 2.85 ERA, will likely be moved to the bullpen.

However, the Nationals have made it known, according to Morosi, that they are willing to deal Zimmermann or Strasburg if the price is right.  While they would undoubtedly be able to receive a talented prospect package in return, I think it would be best to keep this quintet intact.

Nationals owner Ted Lerner and has made it known he wants to win, according to his son, Mark, via The Washington Post‘s Barry Svrluga.  It is for this reason as well as long-term considerations that he opened the checkbook for Scherzer.  Scott Boras seems to prefer negotiating with ownership, as opposed to management, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, and he must have convinced Lerner that Scherzer gives the team the best chance for a ring.

It would be hard to argue with that logic.  Even before the Scherzer signing, the Nationals’ roster was loaded.  Now with Scherzer toeing the rubber every fifth day, they are the best team in professional baseball.

The offense, led by Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth and Ian Desmond, will score plenty of runs, and the dominant pitching staff will be nearly impossible to score on.  It’s a recipe for success, but having the best team on paper does not mean a championship is on the horizon.

Health is supremely important in all sports, but especially in baseball.  It is very rare that a team will go the entire 162-game season without losing a significant piece, and Harper, Werth, Desmond and Ryan Zimmerman have all battled injuries in the past.

Unfortunately for the Nats, the World Series is not won on paper.

Both the Dodgers and Angels have drastically increased their payrolls and substantially improved their rosters in recent years, yet neither has won a championship in that time.

But while there might not be a way to secure a playoff spot or deep playoff run before spring training has even started, Washington is doing its best.  There are still some questions looming, most notably whether the team can keep all five dominant starting pitchers.  Also, the Nationals need to improve their bullpen.  They are not expected to re-sign last year’s closer, Rafael Soriano, and they traded setup specialist Tyler Clippard for Yunel Escobar.

Drew Storen is expected to be the closer after he finished 2014 with a flurry, not allowing a single earned run in his final 20 innings pitched.  A deep, talented bullpen is almost a necessity to continue playing deep into October, and adding a few relievers should be on top of general manager Mike Rizzo’s to-do list.

So while the Nationals are the favorites to win it all this year, at 6-1 odds according to Odds Shark, it is impossible to crown a champ in January.  But the Nationals have done enough to be serious contenders, and if they find a way to keep their starting rotation together while also adding a few consistent relief pitchers, they are my choice to win the 2015 World Series.

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The MLB free-agent market now consists of Max Scherzer, James Shields and everyone else. But beyond Scherzer and Shields, there are still a handful of valuable players to be had. And as the market gets thinner, those assets will only become increasingly valuable as teams try to fill their remaining roster voids.

What follows is a list of the 10 most valuable free agents still available, based not only on projected 2015 performance but also on the current market at a given position. Colby Rasmus, for example, just became more valuable on Friday after Nori Aoki signed with the Giants, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.  

Here’s a look at the 10 free agents who will be most highly coveted in the weeks leading up to spring training.

Begin Slideshow

1. January Will Bring the Max Scherzer Thaw

Spring training is little more than a month away, which means the biggest marquee free agent this side of Jon Lester is about to sign with…

“The two sleepers all along for me were St. Louis and Washington,” one American League executive said of Max Scherzer’s possible destinations. “They’re just guesses. I can see him with the Yankees, too, or going back to Detroit.”

Happy New Year, in case I missed you the first time around, and please join our executive friend in the biggest guessing game remaining before pitchers and catchers report: Which club will push to the max for Max?

The Cardinals have not previously shown an appetite to spend the $200 million or so that Scott Boras, Scherzer’s agent, hinted at last month, but we can all agree (can’t we?) that Scherzer to St. Louis makes a ton of sense. It’s his hometown, the Cubs are closing the gap fast in the NL Central, and St. Louis’ rotation is working under potential storm clouds: Adam Wainwright (elbow), Michael Wacha (shoulder) and Jaime Garcia (you name it) all are recovering from health issues.

Talk surrounding the Nationals has quieted down from earlier this winter, when Jordan Zimmermann’s name was in the rumor mill. Plus, with outfielder Jayson Werth’s shoulder surgery keeping him sidelined for two or three months, Washington has other, more pressing issues.

But the relationship between Boras and the Lerner family—owner of the Nationals—is very good, and for that reason alone, you can’t completely discount Washington until Scherzer has signed elsewhere. Among the Boras clients with the Nats: Werth, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Danny Espinosa.

The Yankees expect CC Sabathia to be full-go when they report to Tampa later this month, but they have the two most important things where Scherzer is concerned: Money and need. Even if healthy, Sabathia is no longer what he once was and will turn 35 on July 21. And with luck, Masahiro Tanaka will pitch the entire season after rehabbing his elbow injury last summer.

But Tommy John surgery lurks in the background. Many pitchers with Tanaka’s injury (Chad Billingsley being one recent example) have tried the rehab route before having to undergo surgery. Depending on Tanaka to make 33 or 34 starts at this point is a risky plan for the Yankees.

The Tigers? General manager Dave Dombrowski said last month, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck, that there are no talks ongoing but “I guess that anything can happen.” The Tigers were rebuffed by Scherzer last spring when they made a six-year, $144 million offer. 

Given Boras’ track record, even in a Scherzer market that has been noticeably quiet, history has shown time and again that it is foolish to underestimate the agent. But where Detroit is concerned, it appears that the only way that works is if Scherzer’s market doesn’t develop as expected and he falls back to Detroit on a short-term deal.

As for Scherzer, he’s mostly stayed under the radar this winter, though he did pop up to say hello on Sunday:

Prediction: Yankees.

2. The Cardinals May Have a Big Move Left

As Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi over at Fox Sports reported last week, the Cardinals, in looking to upgrade their rotation, are checking into Scherzer on the free-agent market and Cole Hamels and David Price on the trade market. Hamels and Price make great sense, in that St. Louis lacks a strong left-hander. And Scherzer, as I mentioned above, would be quite the homecoming story.

Question is, how much money are the Cardinals willing to spend? Scherzer still seems like a seriously remote possibility, given that the fiscally responsible club drew a hard line even with a franchise icon like Albert Pujols a few winters ago. And not only did they live to tell about it, but the Cardinals have fared far better than Pujols since then.

That, combined with the fact that the most the Cardinals have ever paid for a pitcher is the five-year, $97.5 million extension they awarded Adam Wainwright two years ago, likely doesn’t foretell the eventual signing of Scherzer. Unless the Cards and Boras get awfully creative, of course.

As for Price, industry speculation still has him linked, to a degree, with Scherzer. The thinking is that the Tigers intended to try to sign Price longterm, and the fact that they haven’t done so yet has convinced some that Price, who can be a free agent next winter, isn’t interested in an extension with Detroit. Might the Tigers deal him? And if so, will they use the money to take another run at Scherzer?

The Cubs’ move to the precipice of contending with a slew of young talent, the signing of Lester and the deadly serious hire of Joe Maddon as their manager has added fuel to the NL Central Hot Stove fire this winter, intensifying speculation that the Cardinals will strike for another pitcher.

Of course, under general manager John Mozeliak, the Cards have continually moved at their own pace, made smart decisions and refused to be bullied into making a move out of concern for their rivals’ actions. It’s part of why they’ve won for so long.

Prediction: The Cards strike for Hamels, who makes a lot of sense. He’s affordable, and the Cardinals have the prospects.

3. Speculating on the Phillies

Finally, the Phillies moved Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers last month. Then they dealt outfielder Marlon Byrd, acquiring a solid prospect in right-handed pitcher Ben Lively. That was another small step toward an overdue and badly needed reconstruction.

Next up: Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels?

To be sure, those are two completely different situations. Hamels is owed $94 million over the next four years and is viewed as one of the game’s best left-handers. Howard, 35, is owed $60 million over the next two seasons and is viewed as a has-been who can’t do much more than hit homers.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro told 97.5 The Fanatic’s Mike Missanelli (h/t Matt Lombardo of NJ.com) that the club is better off without Howard going forward, and the Phillies know they’re going to have to eat a sizable portion of his contract. Clearly, the best thing for both sides is a deal before camp opens. The Phillies’ sluggishness to deal continues to be crippling at best and irresponsible at worst, given that they missed their window to jump-start a retooling by at least a year.

Predictions: For Hamels, see item No. 2 (though people close to him say he would love to pitch for the Dodgers). For Howard, look for the Orioles, who need bats and tend to work late during the winter under Dan Duquette (see Ubaldo Jimenez last year), to make a move.

4. James Shields‘ Prospects

Remember the days when marquee pitchers were in demand? There is no better illustration of the state of today’s game—how runs and hits have regressed back to early 1970s levels—than the fact that two of the three marquee free-agent pitchers—Shields and Scherzer—remain unsigned, while hitters were snapped up early this winter as eagerly as Tina Fey and Amy Poehler jokes at the Golden Globes.

While Scherzer and Shields continue to look for new homes, Victor Martinez (Tigers), Hanley Ramirez (Red Sox), Pablo Sandoval (Red Sox), Nelson Cruz (Mariners), Russell Martin (Blue Jays), Melky Cabrera (White Sox), Chase Headley (Yankees), Michael Cuddyer (Mets), Alex Rios (Royals), Adam LaRoche (White Sox) and even Yasmany Tomas (Diamondbacks) all have signed.

So what happens with Shields? Rosenthal reported on Jan. 4 that he supposedly has a five-year, $110 million offer on the table (though the team has not yet been identified, so no guarantees that such an offer even exists).

If the Marlins deal Dan Haren, who prefers pitching for a West Coast team at this stage of his career, there could be a fit in Miami (financially, though, that’s another question). Boston and Arizona both expressed interest at various points this winter. The Giants did as well, before they signed Jake Peavy. Now? Crickets. At least, publicly where Shields is concerned.

Prediction: Rockies.

5. The Next Market to Flourish

Though top-flight, late-innings men David Robertson (White Sox), Andrew Miller (Yankees), Pat Neshek (Astros) and Luke Gregerson (Astros) struck gold earlier in the winter, several free-agent closers (or setup men) remain unsigned: Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Casey Janssen and Alexi Ogando are all there for the taking.

6. Don’t Tread on Alexi Ogando

Ogando’s agent, the highly respected Larry Reynolds, took to Twitter the other day to defend the reliever from the rumor mill:

7. Don’t Tread on the Hall of Fame Voters

One quick follow-up from last week’s announcement that Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio have been elected to the Hall of Fame:

I find it interesting that, just two years after the Baseball Writers’ Association of America was roasted for not voting anyone into the Hall of Fame for just the eighth time ever, voters put four men into the Hall—the largest group in 60 years, since 1955.

Was the system broken two years ago, as many claimed? No.

Is it broken now, as many claim in the aftermath of steroids guys like Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire being shut out? No.

I don’t know how the steroids class ultimately will fare—Bonds, McGwire, Roger Clemens, etc.—but I also know this: It is an unprecedented chapter in baseball history. There is absolutely no harm in continuing to take time to sort that era out.

Look, the system is not perfect. No system ever is. But since the first Hall of Fame election in 1936, it’s worked pretty doggone well. The baseball Hall of Fame is easily the best Hall of any sport. And part of that is because it is so difficult to get elected.

And if you think voters today are wrong-headed on some issues, how about this for a history lesson: No Hall of Famer has ever been elected unanimously. That is crazy, of course, but it is a fact.

In 1966, 20 voters did not cast a ballot for Ted Williams (out of 302). In 1936, 11 voters did not cast a ballot for Babe Ruth (out of 226). In 1962, 36 voters bypassed Jackie Robinson (out of 160).

There will always be issues with voting, no matter who is charged with doing it. And you know what? Differing viewpoints and dissenting opinions only make the process stronger. As with many other things, the process can get messy. But in the case of the baseball Hall, it has worked and it continues to work.

8. Cue the Theme from The Odd Couple

Bruce Bochy and Tim Flannery played together for years, then worked together as manager and third base coach for many more years. They were teammates for one World Series run in San Diego in 1984, they were manager and coach for another World Series run in San Diego in 1998, and then they teamed up for three World Series rings in San Francisco in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

So where does that leave them? Well, for now, featured in what I’m sure will be one terrific MLB Network Presents feature that will debut Tuesday night on the network. I know my DVR is set. For an advance peek, check this out:

9. In the Spirit of the Game

Dennis Gilbert has been many things throughout a life dedicated to baseball: agent, special assistant to White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, prospective owner (oh, what fun it would be if he ever gets a team). But the role in which he’s touched the most lives, easily, comes this Saturday night in Los Angeles, when the Professional Baseball Scouts’ Foundation hosts its 12th annual charity fundraiser, “In the Spirit of the Game.”

Gilbert started the event more than a decade ago as a way to raise money for indigent scouts who were down on their luck. You won’t find anybody who loves the game more than the scouts, who don’t make much money but are so important to the game’s soul.

The event has become one of the biggest of the offseason, with a silent auction before the program that, in the past, has featured items such as dresses from Marilyn Monroe, guitars signed by the Rolling Stones and autographed memorabilia from Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and more. It’s a who’s who from the baseball world—and, given the Los Angeles location, Hollywood. Two years ago, I bumped into Bo Derek.

This year, Dusty Baker will receive the Tommy Lasorda Managerial Achievement Award, Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Paul Molitor, Robin Yount, Jim Palmer, George Brett, Goose Gossage, Brooks Robinson and Dave Winfield are scheduled to appear, and retiring Commissioner Bud Selig will be honored.

If you’re in the Los Angeles area and would like to attend, here’s the information. If not, check it out on MLB Network television later this month.

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Well more than two months have peeled off Major League Baseball’s offseason calendar, a hot-stove season that has been as active and stunning as any in recent memory. 

Yet it is not finished. Two big-money free agents still swim around untouched—Max Scherzer and James Shields—while several clubs with World Series visions remain a player away from being legitimate threats in October.

The rumor mills around Scherzer and Shields are certain to soon churn heavily, and any number of the teams in need of another acquisition could greatly use their services. Then again, not all of them need to stabilize or boost their rotations. Aside from those aces, position players remain on the market, available in trades or for a relatively modest free-agent fee.

How these teams plan to finish out their offseasons is still unclear, but make no mistake here: If they plan to win it all, they will need one more headline-making move.

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