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It’s still hard to tell where Max Scherzer is going to sign, but logic says that he’ll end up signing with the team that simply has to have him.

According to the latest report, that team is the Detroit Tigers. And if we once again ask our pal logic, it says said report might be right.

Courtesy of Tony Paul of The Detroit News, here it is:

Now, this shouldn’t be taken as a sign that the Tigers are going to go out of their way to re-sign the 30-year-old right-hander. Paul noted in a subsequent tweet that the same source told him Scherzer‘s market remains quiet and that, not surprisingly, the Tigers aren’t about to bid against themselves.

Further, it’s a good guess that Paul’s source isn’t Detroit general manager Dave Dombrowski. He’s too smart to let something like that slip, and it was only last month that he was downplaying his pursuit to re-sign the 2013 American League Cy Young winner.

“I guess anything can happen but we’re not in active pursuit of that situation at this time,” he told Anthony French of the Detroit Free Press.

Still, this is the time of year when you take any little bit of smoke you can get on the rumor mill. And in this case, there is something to the notion that the Tigers may feel like they truly need Scherzer.

To the first point in Paul’s report, yes, signing Scherzer would take care of the concern over Price’s long-term future with the Tigers. 

Price is due to become a free agent after 2015. Since he’s easily the best pitcher the Tigers have, that leaves the organization’s “Long-Term Ace” slot empty. The Tigers could change that by extending Price, but that’s where there are complications.

With free agency only a year away, Price isn’t going to be receptive to anything less than market value. Since his current market value is probably in the same neighborhood as Scherzer‘s, extending Price likely wouldn’t mean a discount.

And though he’s the older of the two pitchers, Scherzer may be a safer long-term investment. Both come with declining velocity concerns, but FanGraphs can show that Scherzer‘s arsenal of pitches is more diverse than Price’s. That gives him a better chance of adapting to a significant velocity loss.

So if it’s the long run the Tigers are worried about, there’s a lot of sense in re-signing Scherzer. A long-term contract for him is more readily attainable than one for Price, and would be a better investment to boot.

But of course, these are the Tigers we’re talking about.

Though they’re presumably not ignoring their long-term future completely, pretty much everything they’ve done in recent years has been done out of a clear win-now mindset. More so than whether they need Scherzer in their long-term plans, the real question is if the Tigers need Scherzer to win now.

Paul’s source indicates the Tigers think the answer is yes, in part because Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez are on thin ice. And while it bears repeating that this source may not actually be speaking for the organization, it’s notable that the rest of the league is thinking along these lines.

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reported this in late December:

The more you ask baseball executives about where Scherzer will end up, the more the answers come back Detroit. The Tigers know and like Scherzer, and the feeling is they need him after trading Rick Porcello to the Red Sox, and obtaining Alfredo Simon from the Reds and Shane Greene from the Yankees…

It’s weird to picture the Tigers without an elite starting rotation, as nobody has done starting pitching like them in recent years. Go back to 2012, and FanGraphs has their starters producing 17.3 more Wins Above Replacement than the next-best team. That’s some gap.

And yet, that’s the direction the Tigers are headed.

A rotation of Price, Verlander, Sanchez, Greene and Simon doesn’t sound all that great on paper, and FanGraphs doesn’t project it to be that great:

The good news is that projections aren’t gospel. They can be argued with.

For example, I’m not quite buying is that Greene will fall that flat. He debuted to a solid 3.78 ERA in 2014. And having watched a handful of his starts, I’ll wager Brandon McCarthy isn’t too far off base in thinking Greene has “stupid electric stuff.”

But Greene aside, it’s hard to disagree with these projections.

Barring a velocity resurgence, Verlander probably won’t be drastically improving his ERA from last season’s 4.54 mark. Given his injury history, that probably is about as many innings as you can count on from Sanchez. After revealing his true self down the stretch after his All-Star first half in 2014, the American League probably will kick Simon’s butt that hard.

Compacting matters is that the Tigers don’t have much…heck, any depth below those five. If the rotation they have now were to crash and burn in 2015, they’d need either a whole lot of relief pitching or a whole lot of offense to survive it.

And that’s where we find more question marks.

A bullpen that was among the worst in the league in 2014 hasn’t gotten any significant upgrades. Re-signing Victor Martinez and trading for Yoenis Cespedes should ensure more good offense in 2015, but the Tigers need to worry about whether J.D. Martinez can repeat his 2014 breakout (not likely) and whether Miguel Cabrera can stay healthy (not likely) and get back to being his old self (not likely).

Granted, you can still look at the big picture in Detroit and see a quality team. A series of question marks don’t equal a total disaster, so it’s not surprising that the Tigers aren’t projected to be one in 2015.

It is, however, equally unsurprising that they’re not projected by FanGraphs to be head and shoulders better than the rest of the AL Central:

Though the Tigers are projected as the best team in the division, it’s a close call between them and the Cleveland Indians. The Kansas City Royals should also be somewhere in the mix. And based on their offseason activities, these projections are probably underrating the Chicago White Sox.

The Tigers are sort of in the same boat as the St. Louis Cardinals. They’re projected to be the best team in the NL Central, but it’s close enough to a point where they should indeed be thinking about following through on their interest in Scherzer, Price or Cole Hamels. There is, after all, a huge difference between winning the division and merely securing a spot in a one-game wild-card playoff.

If the Tigers can get to Scherzer first, all they’d need to do to improve their contention chances in 2015 is insert him in their rotation. With a projection that calls for a 3.02 ERA and 3.8 WAR in 195 innings, he’d look awfully good next to Price.

It’s either that or the Tigers could use Scherzer‘s signing as an excuse to trade Price. Maybe they’d still have a thin starting rotation, but a stronger bullpen and/or lineup would help make up for that.

As Dombrowski seemed to indicate back in December, it could be that the Tigers aren’t desperate to bring back Scherzer. That would be a defensible position, as the projections say they have enough to contend in the AL Central. 

It is, however, believable that Tigers might feel like they have to have Scherzer. Beyond him being the long-term ace they need, he’s their ticket to cementing themselves as the team to beat in their division.

Of course, it’ll cost the Tigers. Scherzer is said to want $200 million, and presumably won’t be signing for less than Jon Lester’s $155 million. Because they already have their share of big long-term contracts, the guys in the Tigers front office can’t downplay those figures more than anyone else can.

Except, maybe, their boss. Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has deep pockets, and one source was quick to remind Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post that he doesn’t mind spending it.

“All it takes,” said the source, “is for the owner to say he’ll sign that check, and it gets done.”

If that goes for anything Ilitch wants, maybe it goes double for things he needs.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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While James Shields is a very good starter who can handle pitching at the top of a rotation, he’s not quite the prize that fellow free-agent right-hander Max Scherzer is. That’s why for all the intrigue, guesswork and speculation over where Shields might wind up, everything in that realm is much more compelling when it comes to Scherzer.

As Richard Justice of MLB.com points out: “In the last three seasons, Scherzer’s 55 victories are the most in baseball. He’s first in strikeouts, too, and 11th in innings [in that span]. By almost any definition, he’s a true No. 1 starter. The Tigers [were] 65-23 when Scherzer gets the ball and 205-192 with anyone else on the mound.”

Tack on the fact that the 30-year-old Scherzer, who took home the 2013 American League Cy Young Award, is represented by agent Scott Boras, and, well, this has all the makings of a free-agent frenzy.

And yet there hasn’t exactly been a Scherzer sweepstakes set up, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes:

The best player on the MLB free-agent market not only doesn’t have a team yet, he doesn’t even have a rumor.

No team has declared or even admitted serious involvement, but everyone believes star right-hander Max Scherzer…will easily surpass the six-year, $144 million deal he turned down last spring.

And most think it won’t be by only a little, either.

So what are the key factors that will determine where Scherzer ultimately signs?

The Massive Money

Scherzer’s camp has made it known that he is seeking a contract worth $200 million, if not more, according to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports.

That’s, uh, a lot of scratch. Even if the ultimate price tag is shy of that figure, Scherzer is going to get at least the $155 million that Jon Lester landed from the Chicago Cubs during the winter meetings in mid-December.

In other words, only teams with the financial fortitude need apply.

The Big-Market Teams

Speaking of those clubs possessing proper payrolls…

For this drawn-out speculation and eventual negotiation tactic to work out, Boras needs a market to develop around Scherzer in order to grab some leverage in any talks by playing interested teams against each other.

Which teams might that include?

The New York Yankees, who have been active this offseason without having gone after any top-tier, big-money players and instead playing it safe by re-signing third baseman Chase Headley, inking lefty reliever Andrew Miller and trading for shortstop Didi Gregorius.

Various reports have popped up that indicate the Yankees could jump into the Scherzer mix at some point toward the end, including one from Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. But so far, general manager Brian Cashman has held steady in his oft-repeated winter plans not to spend big, according to Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News.

Maybe, however, the loss of right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, the most durable and consistent member of an intriguing but injury-prone rotation, will force the Yankees’ hand on Scherzer. (On Monday, the news broke that Kuroda would return to Japan, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.)

“The Yankees need [Scherzer],” Justice wrote. “He might be the difference between making the playoffs and missing out for a third straight year. As long as Scherzer is still on the market, the Yanks have to be considered a contender.”

The other teams that have the funds and could make sense as a fit? The Giants, Angels and Red Sox each have a need at the top of their rotations and the money to make a very bold move.

And while the Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals and Tigers, with whom Scherzer spent the past five seasons, seem to have enough arms at the moment, they simply might get greedy and stock up on as much talent as possible in their respective quests to get to the World Series.

Then again, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said in mid-December, “I guess anything can happen, but we’re not in active pursuit of that situation at this time,” via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.

Still, that doesn’t mean owner Mike Ilitch, who has a history of signing Boras clients and has been chasing a World Series title for the past handful of seasons now, won’t find a way to pony up to keep Scherzer around.

Timing and Desperation

If Shields signs first, Scherzer’s status on the open market would certainly be affected. 

On one hand, if Shields comes off the board before Scherzer does, then that makes Scherzer the very last prize among free agents. That’s not a bad position to be in, especially when a team or three is likely to be desperate after missing out on Shields.

Depending on how long Boras and Scherzer let this play out, desperation also could set in if a club gets bad news about one of its pitchers between now and the start of spring training in mid-February. Should anything happen to a key arm on a contending team, the circumstances would change immediately.

The Alleged Arms Race

One of the biggest storylines of this busy offseason has been how many great pitchers are available between free agency and trades.

Well, aside from Scherzer and Shields, the free-agent well has just about dried up, what with the likes of Ryan Vogelsong, Aaron Harang and Roberto Hernandez looking like the next-best arms on the open market. Remember: Japanese star Kenta Maeda isn’t going to be posted, news that broke before Kuroda’s decision. 

On the trade front, however, there are still a handful of big names that have been mentioned, including Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and Zack Greinke, the latter two of which could be replaced by Scherzer were the Washington Nationals or Los Angeles Dodgers actually to make such a move.

It could very well be, though, that those very top arms actually won’t change teams. So far, the best pitchers to be traded are more of the No. 2- or No. 3-starter caliber like Jeff Samardzija, Mat Latos, Rick Porcello, Shelby Miller and Wade Miley.

That makes Scherzer look more attractive, especially since he costs only money as opposed to money and talent, which would be the price for, say, Hamels or Cueto.

Contenders over Pretenders

Dollars appear to be driving Scherzer’s search for a team, as is often the case when Boras is involved.

That said, Scherzer undoubtedly wants to win after reaching the playoffs the past four years, but ultimately falling short of the World Series each time. 

Therefore, an in-his-prime ace like Scherzer is not going to sign with the Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies or any other team that isn’t already a contender, or at least on the very precipice of being one.

As much as money matters, winning while at the top of your game, like Scherzer is right now, also presents a powerful pull.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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With less than two months until teams report to spring training, it’s crunch time for MLB general managers looking to put the finishing touches on their offseason masterpieces.

Several teams are probably already done making major moves. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres have been extraordinarily busy, and their roster overhauls will be on display as soon as camp gets underway.

Other teams have been strangely quiet thus far, so it’ll be interesting to see if they make moves now that other teams are out of the running for the remaining available players.

Three of the top players left on the free-agent and trade markets have made headlines recently. Get up to speed on their statuses below.

Asdrubal Cabrera

Widely considered the top bat available in free agency as things stand today, Asdrubal Cabrera has no shortage of suitors. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi lists four potential destinations for the middle infielder, though there are presumably others in the hunt as well:

Of the teams Morosi lists, the Toronto Blue Jays appear to be the best fit. After dealing Brett Lawrie this offseason, the team lacks quality depth at second base. Ryan Goins, Maicer Izturis and Steve Tolleson are among those on the roster who could see time there, but adding Cabrera would effectively make them expendable.

Scott Ferguson of TSN 1050 writes that Cabrera may not be the future of the position, but he’s worth bringing in now: “Ryan Goins may one day learn to hit, and John Berti who’s been playing in the Arizona Fall League may be an option down the road, but right now, the Jays need a veteran like Asdrubal Cabrera.”

Adding Cabrera would also be an insurance policy for Jose Reyes at short should he get injured yet again. Cabrera could simply slide over to his right and allow one of the aforementioned players to see time at second.

This is an easy-to-see upgrade for Toronto. Cabrera hit .241/.307/.387 split between the Cleveland Indians and Washington Nationals in 2014. That’s now two consecutive subpar seasons from the 29-year-old, but there’s no reason why the Blue Jays can’t offer him a one-year deal and see if he can re-establish himself north of the border.

There wouldn’t be all that much pressure on Cabrera to produce offensively in a lineup packed with the likes of Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson, so this is an ideal scenario for all parties involved.

Marlon Byrd

Jimmy Rollins and Antonio Bastardo have already fallen victim to the rebuild that the Philadelphia Phillies are in the midst of, and the likes of Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard are on the chopping block as well.

Marlon Byrd, a surprisingly valuable player (for the most part) since 2009, is also a candidate for relocation. Morosi tweeted that he was actually almost shipped off to Cincinnati:

It’s unknown what the Phillies would have received in return, though moving Byrd is a positive by itself. He’s on borrowed time, enjoying arguably the best two seasons of his career (2013 and 2014) in his mid-30s. Moving him now would prevent the Phillies from having to deal with him when his value potentially lowers during the season.

This is a head-scratcher for the Reds. The outfield is thin, with Skip Schumaker currently in line for regular playing time in left field, but Cincy is in somewhat of a rebuild itself.

The Reds have dealt Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, floated around the idea of trading Jay Bruce and both Aroldis Chapman and Johnny Cueto’s names have even popped up in rumors. 

Adding Byrd would not help the future of the team. The Reds would have to trade a prospect or two to get him, yet those prospects should remain in the team’s system as part of the plan a few years from now.

Also, Byrd is owed $8 million next season. The Reds need to cut payroll, writes Kevin Goheen of Fox Sports Ohio, so adding salary makes zero sense.

Byrd could very well be dealt this offseason, but it shouldn’t be to the Reds.

Max Scherzer

The pitching market is still tied to Max Scherzer, as the right-handed ace has yet to ink a new contract. That’s probably because he’s still asking for $200 million (h/t D.J. Short of Hardball Talk), a number no pitcher other than Clayton Kershaw has ever earned.

One team accustomed to spending large sums of money on pitchers is the New York Yankees. While they have been quiet in their pursuit (or non-pursuit) of Scherzer, Morosi believes that they’ll ultimately end up with the 30-year-old.

“So if your question today is whether I believe the Yankees are pursuing Scherzer, the answer is an emphatic yes,” Morosi writes. “The New Era Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium could have been renamed the ‘We Are Not Signing Max Scherzer Bowl,’ and I wouldn’t have been convinced.”

Morosi cites the team’s muffled pursuit of Mark Teixeira when he was a free agent prior to the 2009 season. Most believed the Yankees to be out on Teixeira until he surprised everyone and inked a lengthy, lucrative deal with the organization.

But why is this parallel relevant? Because both players had Scott Boras‘ name attached to them during free agency.

Boras is the best agent in the business when it comes to pinching every dollar out of prospective teams for his clients. The Yankees are one of the best at throwing money around, making Boras‘ eyes turn into dollar signs when his clients are interested in joining the Bombers.

It’s widely known that Boras always gives the Yankees a call. Morosi recalled a quote from John Henry in his report: “A half-dozen years later, it’s worth remembering what Red Sox owner John Henry told The Associated Press after Teixeira signed with his archrival: ‘There was no mention of the Yankees, but we felt all along that they were going to get the last call. That’s what you deal with in working with Scott.'”

A similar situation could very well happen with Scherzer.

The Yankees have yet to address their injury-prone starting rotation outside of young Nate Eovaldi, and you can rest assured that general manager Brian Cashman won’t stand pat. Something will happen.

How major that something will be is still undetermined.

Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn

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Max Scherzer and James Shields still need homes for 2015 and beyond.

The two starting pitchers remain untouched on MLB‘s free-agent market, waiting to select a new employer before Opening Day. While action predictably intensified once fellow ace Jon Lester made his decision, the other premium hurlers did not budge on expediting the process.

Not only are they the best unsigned pitchers, they’re the biggest available names at any position. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi notes that they are the only lingering players who will cost someone a first-round amateur draft pick:

Each righty is also expecting a hefty contract, demands which are delaying the process. Top-shelf starting pitchers are kind of important, so they’ll have no trouble getting paid before Opening Day. Courtesy of The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo, here’s the latest on each ace.

Max Scherzer

Scherzer is the grand prize here, and he knows it. Morosi reported his lofty demands weeks ago:

No Scott Boras client will ever take a discount, especially a power thrower who has notched 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings over the past three seasons. The 30-year-old will get paid, but likely not as much as he and Boras want.

While sources told Cafardo that Scherzer isn’t appraised at $200 million, recent moves make the Detroit Tigers more likely to pony up a sizable sum for his services:

The more you ask baseball executives about where Scherzer will end up, the more the answers come back Detroit. The Tigers know and like Scherzer, and the feeling is they need him after trading Rick Porcello to the Red Sox, and obtaining Alfredo Simon from the Reds and Shane Greene from the Yankees. The Tigers’ rotation is missing a significant pitcher (you can’t call Justin Verlander that anymore, and David Price may not re-sign). The executives we talked to think Scherzer’s deal will be north of Lester’s six years at $155 million, but well short of $200 million (unless option years are counted).

Losing Scherzer would turn Detroit’s major strength into a concern. After David Price, the rotation turns to Anibal Sanchez coming off an injury-laden year and a rapidly declining Verlander. Greene and Simon can hold down the final spots, but that staff isn’t ranking third in fielding independent pitching (FIP) like last year’s unit. 

After winning the American League Cy Young Award in 2013, Scherzer barely declined in 2014, seeing his FIP drop slightly from 2.74 to 2.85. Detroit’s window to win a title with Price, Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez won’t stay open forever. 

This is usually when the New York Yankees decide they’re done with frugality and swoop in for the steal. Don’t count on it. Team President Randy Levine dispelled that notion to ESPN.com’s Wallace Matthews:

The chances of us bringing in a guy for six [years] and $25 million or over in my opinion is virtually none. At the end of the day you have to be realistic in any organization.

Never say never with the Evil Empire, but they appear true to their word so far, ditching their usual histrionics for low-key yet efficient maneuvers. If that’s the case, the Tigers won’t have formidable competition for Scherzer, and they have never shied away from shelling out huge deals before.

Prediction: Scherzer signs seven-year, $175 million extension with Tigers 

James Shields

Even though nobody is putting out an eager front for Shields, somebody is expected to make him a rich man. Cafardo gave an estimate on his anticipated earnings:

The final Shields numbers are expected to be close to the five years and $110 million remaining (if the option is picked up) on the Cole Hamels deal, according to one major league source who was privy to Shields’s demands. The Giants and Red Sox are in the picture, and the Yankees may be another suitor.

Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, however, relayed a different tune from San Francisco Giants general manager Brian Sabean regarding his club’s interest.

“Sabean said he continues to search for ways to deepen the lineup and get more offense after Friday’s trade for third baseman Casey McGehee,” Schulman wrote, “but reiterated that the Giants are not likely to get another big-ticket addition, such as pitcher James Shields.”

Boston GM Ben Cherington also sounds unenamored with Shields, per ESPNBoston.com’s Gordon Edes.

“We like the direction the team is headed in,” he said. “I think it’s more likely if we add anywhere, it’s the bullpen, between now and spring training.” 

Shields will be expensive, but perhaps not enough for the Yankees to bow out on him as well. With Hiroki Kuroda returning to Japan, per an ESPN.com report, they have nobody else on the roster who logged more than 20 starts for them last season.

The baseline doesn’t fit New York’s definition of breaking the bank, and Shields is as durable as they come. He’s thrown over 200 innings in each of the past eight seasons, hurling more frames than anyone since 2011.

That workload, along with declining strikeout rates, will scare squads from giving the 33-year-old a long-term commitment. At the very least, the bitter AL East rivals will drive up the price for the other. Since Boston has more pieces to acquire a younger ace on the trade market, look for the Yankees to ultimately pay up.

Prediction: Shields signs with Yankees for five years, $95 million

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Although the winter meetings allowed numerous MLB teams to cross some names off their holiday shopping lists, plenty of big gifts still await.  Even with superstars like Jon Lester and Pablo Sandoval signing with new teams, the league has yet to see a resulting domino effect, and other top-tier players have yet to find new (or old) teams.

Many free agents are still up in the air.  Plenty of season-changing talent, especially among starting pitchers, still exists for title-hungry teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and others to sweep up.  

Even though the pace of signings has slowed to a crawl, that does not mean the rumor mill is not constantly spinning.  Using information derived from The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo in his invaluable “Sunday Notebook” series, let’s look at recent updates on some of the biggest available names and speculate where their ultimate destinations may be.

Giants and Sox in on Shields?

With Lester off the market, James Shields has established himself as one of the biggest names available, as the small-market Kansas City Royals are unlikely to retain the ace who spurred their surprising World Series run.  Cafardo suggests that a few big-market teams are still interested in Shields:

The final Shields numbers are expected to be close to the five years and $110 million remaining (if the option is picked up) on the Cole Hamels deal, according to one major league source who was privy to Shields’s demands. The Giants and Red Sox are in the picture, and the Yankees may be another suitor.

That would be well below the six-year, $155 million pact Lester inked with the Chicago Cubs, but one also commensurate with Shields’ level of performance.  Though Shields has eclipsed the 200-innings mark in a remarkable eight consecutive seasons, he has never checked in as more than a 4.5 WAR player, and his 2015 Steamer projection, via FanGraphs, projects him as a 3.0 WAR player.

Those numbers still make Shields a very valuable player, equivalent to Brandon McCarthy and Nathan Eovaldi last season.  But it spells more of a No. 3 starter rather than the ace that his contract demands would imply, and as Shields approaches his age-33 season, it is a given that the contract will sour in the end.

Of course, signing a big free-agent pitcher is about the present, not the albatross the contract will eventually become.  In that instance, the Giants look like a slightly better fit for Shields than the Red Sox, who already have innings-eaters but no top-of-the-rotation anchor.  San Francisco already has Madison Bumgarner, and when adding Shields to a rotation that includes Matt Cain, Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson, the Giants would trot out an extremely durable and consistent group that will almost surely produce above-average numbers.

Scherzer Staying Put?

Whereas Shields is in demand on the open market, the picture is murkier on Scherzer.  His $200 million asking price has thinned out the market and created a holding pattern.  Given that Scherzer is a Scott Boras client, it’s not difficult to envision this process dragging out.

However, unlike with Lester or Shields, no team has established clear interest in the Detroit Tigers ace.  ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription required) recently pegged the Tigers as 2-to-1 favorites to retain Scherzer, and Cafardo’s sources have echoed that sentiment:

The more you ask baseball executives about where Scherzer will end up, the more the answers come back Detroit. The Tigers know and like Scherzer, and the feeling is they need him after trading Rick Porcello to the Red Sox, and obtaining Alfredo Simon from the Reds and Shane Greene from the Yankees. The Tigers’ rotation is missing a significant pitcher (you can’t call Justin Verlander that anymore, and David Price may not re-sign). 

The Tigers have been unafraid to shell out huge long-term dollars to keep their own stars, as evidenced by the Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander deals.  Moreover, Detroit’s once-formidable rotation has collapsed amid Verlander’s decline, the trades of Doug Fister and Rick Porcello and Anibal Sanchez’s injury history.  Scherzer produced over 2.0 more WAR and pitched nearly 15 innings more than the second-best Tigers starter last year, effectively carrying a staggering Detroit pitching staff down the stretch.

Quite simply, the Tigers probably need Scherzer more than any other deep-pocketed contender, even the Yankees.  Until someone really gets serious about Scherzer, he’s Detroit’s free agent to lose.

Buzz on Asdrubal

Given the scarcity of well-rounded middle infielders, Asdrubal Cabrera would ostensibly be a very valuable commodity on the open market.  However, Cafardo reports that Cabrera has needed to market himself to teams, and the 29-year-old may end up taking a one-year deal:

There’s a lot of dialogue with teams, according to agent Alan Nero, but nothing has come together yet. Cabrera is willing to move to second base, which would be beneficial to him. There’s been speculation concerning the Yankees with Prado gone. Cabrera could take a one-year deal somewhere and reestablish himself.

It’s a puzzling development given that both Sports Illustrated and CBS ranked Cabrera among their 15 best free agents at the start of the offseason.  He’s unlikely to come close to ever repeating his 2011 power breakout, when he swatted 25 home runs and produced a career-high 3.6 WAR and 16.3 added runs on offense.  And Cabrera has also always had a negative glove, which will likely necessitate a move from of shortstop as he ages.

But he already possesses the versatility to handle second, as he demonstrated during his stint with the Washington Nationals last season, and his regular-season numbers make him an above-average bat.  The average slash line of major league shortstops last year was .251/.306/.363, almost exactly in line with Cabrera’s .251/.316/.397 career average.

Considering that playoff contenders were trotting out the likes of Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus last year, Cabrera seems like a nice replacement for most teams.  The Yankees or Phillies, both of whom lost franchise icons at shortstop this offseason, could represent future suitors for the ex-Cleveland Indian.

*All stats via Fangraphs.  

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Ever since Guggenheim Baseball Management purchased the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2012, the Dodgers have been the most polarizing team in MLB.  They immediately went out and acquired superstars like Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez, infusing a drastic win-now philosophy into the organization. 

The Dodgers were second in the league in team salary in 2013, and their payroll ballooned to over $235 million in 2014, which led the league by over $30 million, according to Deadspin.

However, that star-studded roster could not bring a World Series championship to Hollywood in either year.  They managed to only win one playoff series, losing to the Cardinals in the NLCS in 2013 and then again to the Redbirds last year in the first round.

Only one week after the Dodgers lost in Game 4 of the NLDS to St. Louis, the club’s front office underwent some changes.  They lured Andrew Friedman away from the Rays, making him the new president of baseball operations and reassigning former general manager Ned Colletti to a different position within the organization.

Friedman was expected to get the payroll under control, especially since he had to be frugal in his tenure in Tampa Bay, but he took it to another level, slashing payroll in his first winter meetings in blue.  He wasted no time trading Matt Kemp and choosing not to re-sign Hanley Ramirez.

But even with the shift in philosophy, the ownership wants to win now, and it doesn’t really care how much money it has to spend, which is why there is a possibility that the Dodgers could pursue the biggest fish left on the free-agent market, Max Scherzer.

Scherzer is represented by Scott Boras, and his asking price is reportedly somewhere north of $200 million.  There is only one pitcher in MLB history who has signed a contract of at least $200 million, and it’s Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw.

Despite Scherzer’s phenomenal success the past two years, his market has been unimpressive.  The Scherzer negotiations are completely different than Jon Lester’s. Leading up to Lester’s signing, there was seemingly endless rumor and speculation, with several teams clamoring for position. 

With Scherzer, though, there haven’t been any teams that have announced they are “all in” on signing the 2013 Cy Young winner. 

That perceived lack of interest will probably not lower Scherzer’s price tag due to Boras’ historic brilliance of getting his clients top dollar, but it does leave the window open for the Dodgers to shock the baseball world.

If they do sign Scherzer, they would undoubtedly have the best starting rotation in the MLB.  A staff consisting of Kershaw, Scherzer, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu would be nearly unhittable, especially in a best-of-five or best-of-seven playoff series.

The Dodgers already unloaded Kemp and Ramirez, giving them a bit of flexibility from a financial standpoint, and it’s not like the L.A executives are going to pass up a chance to drastically improve their team just because of money. 

They have shown that they are not afraid of massive contracts, and Scherzer could be the next one they sign.

If that is the case, the Dodgers immediately become my pick to win the World Series.  They would have the best starting rotation in the game, and they still have plenty of firepower, even without Kemp and Ramirez, in an offense that features Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez and the newly acquired Howie Kendrick.

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With some time having gone by and the New Year almost upon us, it has been a strange offseason thus far for the New York Yankees.

They have not been quiet, signing free-agent reliever Andrew Miller and re-signing third baseman Chase Headley. They also traded for shortstop Didi Gregorius and starter Nathan Eovaldi in an attempt to get younger. They let both David Robertson and Brandon McCarthy walk, choosing to not even offer them contracts.

In surprising Yankees fashion, the team has yet to make a big splash, passing on all of the market’s big names up to this point. That includes coveted starter Max Scherzer, who remains a free agent. In the end, the Yankees’ biggest regret may be passing on him when they could have added an ace to their staff.

The Yankees have been linked to Scherzer throughout the offseason, but nothing has yet to materialize. From the sound of things, nothing probably will. Without mentioning Scherzer by name, team president Randy Levine explained that The Bronx Bombers were unwilling to make any expensive additions.

“The chances of us bringing in a guy for six (years) and $25 million or over in my opinion is virtually none,” Levine said at a presser to announce a broadcast deal between the YES Network and the New York Football Club. “At the end of the day you have to be realistic in any organization.”

Scherzer is looking for a guaranteed $200 million after turning down a $144 million extension from the Detroit Tigers last spring training. The righty has gone 39-8 the last two seasons, putting up a 3.02 ERA and 492 strikeouts over 434.2 innings in that span.

The guy is a gamer and would give the Yankees rotation a much needed boost. He would also be the third pitcher in that rotation making at least $20 million in 2015, assuming he sticks close to his current asking price. Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia are slated to make $22 million and $23 million, respectively.

Even with “Mad “Max’s” astronomical asking price, the Yankees could end up remorseful if they do in fact pass on Scherzer. 

The Yankees rotation will have plenty of question marks in 2015, with Tanaka, Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova all injury risks. Eovaldi, whom the Yankees had to give up Martin Prado and David Phelps for, is electric but erratic as well. He struggled mightily in 2014. Then there is Chris Capuano, who the Yankees also re-signed, but he should be nothing more than a spot starter if and when others are healthy.

The Yankees used 13 starting pitchers in 2014, with only Hiroki Kuroda making more than 20 starts. He had 32 and and likely will not be back next year. With McCarthy and Shane Greene gone (he was traded for Gregorius), the Yankees are quite low on reliable, durable pitchers.

Scherzer is both of those things—and dominant too.

It is hard to imagine money being a limiting factor for the Yankees, but right now that seems to be the case. It does not look like this is a negotiation tactic or a ploy either—New York seems serious about not spending big.

In the end, they could regret it.

All stats were obtained via Baseball-Reference.com.

Question or comments? Feel free to follow me on Twitter @GPhillips2727 to talk New York Yankees and Major League Baseball.

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Somewhere in a quiet corner of AT&T Park, San Francisco Giants general manager Brian Sabean pushes the record button on an R-2 unit and says, “Help us, Max Scherzer. You’re our only hope.”

A likely scenario? Not exactly, no. But plausible. At least to the extent that Scherzer is still available, and that he does look like the Giants’ only hope.

As strange as it feels to place the Giants in a dire situation mere weeks after winning their third World Series in five years, well, that’s the kind of offseason it’s been.

They’ve already lost Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse from their lineup, and their rotation is missing Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong. For a team that only won 88 games in the regular season, that’s a lot of missing talent.

The good news is that the rest of the National League West hasn’t left the Giants in the dust. The bad news is that it hasn’t done them any favors, either.

In Los Angeles, the Dodgers have gone from really good to a different kind of really good. In San Diego, the pitching-rich Padres have new bats in Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Derek Norris.

FanGraphs‘ projections for 2015 presently have the Giants in between these two clubs, but there’s an argument that they’re below both the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West totem pole.

All it would take for the Giants to fix that is a nice, big splash. Ergo, Scherzer.

You know him mainly as the 2013 American League Cy Young winner, but his most recent effort saw him post a 3.15 ERA and 4.00 K/BB ratio across 220.1 innings in 2014. By FanGraphs WAR, he was the seventh-best starter in baseball. Over the last two years, only Clayton Kershaw has been better.

Of course, you may also know Scherzer as a guy the Giants were interested in not that long ago.

After the Giants watched Sandoval sign with the Boston Red Sox in November, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported they had a slate of Plan Bs that included Scherzer and Jon Lester. They’re obviously not the same thing as Sandoval, but Sabean made it clear the team was perfectly willing to replace Sandoval’s bat and glove with an impact arm.

As he told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle:

We don’t have the next wave of pitchers coming like the ones we produced who have been so important to us. You need other guys side by side with a [Madison] Bumgarner just to keep up with the Joneses, whether it’s in the division or league. You have to have a pretty good damn solid three and fill it out from there, not just this coming year but going into the future.

After the Giants missed out on Lester, logic suggested that Scherzer would find his way into their crosshairs.

Apparently not, according to Shea:

This could be a bluff. Or, it could be a reaction to Scherzer‘s sudden demand for a $200 million contract, as Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported. Tack on a lost draft pick after his rejection of his qualifying offer, and you’re looking at quite the price tag.

If the Giants are just bluffing, great. If they’re scared off by Scherzer‘s asking price, they shouldn’t be. They’re one of the few teams in the league that can afford it, and chances are he would be worth it.

As much as the Giants give off an aura of a scrappy underdog, they’re most definitely a big-market team with a big-market payroll. 

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Giants have escalated their payroll every year since 2008, and in a big way. In going from $76.6 million that year to $149.1 million in 2014, the club’s payroll has risen by an average of $12 million every year.

Knowing this, a $160 million payroll in 2015 would seem possible, especially after winning the World Series. That’s a lot of extra revenue, you know.

As of now, the Giants have about $130 million committed to 2015, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting another $12.8 million in arbitration payouts. But come this time next year, the departures of Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson alone will create $30 million in payroll space.

The point: Scherzer‘s hardly a financial no-go for the Giants. A $200 million contract over, say, seven years would cost $28.5 million a year, but the Giants could have him work for cheap in 2015 before the real payments begin.

The long term, naturally, would be a gamble. In the short term, however, the Giants would be getting a legit ace to help them carry on as World Series contenders.

According to FanGraphs, the Steamer projection for Scherzer‘s 2015 season calls for a 3.02 ERA and a 3.9 WAR. That’s not so great compared to the 6.0 WAR he’s averaged over the last two seasons, but it’s the seventh-highest WAR among Steamer’s starting pitcher projections.

Also, bear in mind that Steamer isn’t thinking of Scherzer as a guy who pitches regularly at AT&T Park. It’s up to you and I to imagine how good he could be there, and boy could he be good.

Scherzer‘s abilities as a strikeout pitcher obviously play well at any ballpark, but his batted-ball profile would definitely, ahem, fly in San Francisco. He’s been one of the fly-balliest pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons, and fly balls don’t die anywhere quite like they do at AT&T Park.

It’s not just the huge dimensions. It’s the marine layer, too. These two things have kept a lot of balls in the yard in recent seasons. Per ESPN.com’s park factors, AT&T Park has been the least-friendly park to home run hitters in three of four years.

Scherzer‘s ERA over the last two seasons with the Detroit Tigers is 3.02. If he trades American League lineups for National League lineups and Comerica Park for AT&T Park, he could consistently do maybe half a run better than that with the Giants as long as he remains in his prime.

Of course, Scherzer won’t be in his prime forever.

He’s 30 years old, and his fastball velocity in 2014 was the worst of his career at an average of 92.8 mph. There’s also no point in ignoring that Scherzer comes with some injury risk, as he’s:

1. A pitcher.
2. A pitcher with over 1,200 big league innings on his arm.
3. A pitcher who doesn’t have a low-effort delivery.

But while these concerns certainly exist, Scherzer‘s not necessarily doomed.

He’ll have more adjustments to make once his fastball velocity is no longer above average, but the fact that he’s steadily decreased his reliance (see Brooks Baseball) on his fastball as he’s gained more experience is a pretty good head start.

And as Jeff Zimmerman argued at MLB Trade Rumors, Scherzer is less of an injury risk than fellow Hot Stove aces Lester and James Shields:

“These three pitchers each have health (no recent DL stints) and a history of being able to make about 33 starts per season on their side. The only difference among them is age, which makes Scherzer the least likely to end up on the DL.”

This is not to say that spending $200 million on Scherzer would be an entirely safe gamble by the Giants. That’s a lot of money going to a 30-year-old pitcher. There would be risk. Plenty of it.

But right now, Scherzer is quite healthy and quite good. Later, there’s a solid chance he could remain quite healthy and quite good. And remember, AT&T Park isn’t going anywhere.

Lastly, beyond the reality that the Giants can afford Scherzer and the reality that he could be worth their while, is another reason to sign him: It’s not like the Giants clearly have better options.

Relative to other clubs, the Giants don’t have a surplus of young talent to use in trades. So as much as a Justin Upton or a Cole Hamels would help, San Francisco may be barred from acquiring players like that.

Meanwhile on the free-agent market, all the good bats are gone, and the only arm comparable to Scherzer is Shields. He’d cost maybe half as much as Scherzer, but he is almost 33, is past his peak and could well be past his peak as a pitcher overall. 

And so, it’s Scherzer or bust. He’s a guy the Giants can get, and he’s the guy they need to get.

Unless, you know, their plan at this point is to just wait until the next even year. That also seems to work.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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This is not a fresh conversation. It is had almost yearly around this time on the calendar.

It is the tale of super agent Scott Boras and some client and their reading of the free-agent market. Is the duo overestimating the player’s worth? Will the market eventually cave and pay the asking price? How late in the offseason might we find out?

This winter is just another edition of the debate, with Boras toting around ace Max Scherzer as his prized client, a $200 million price tag dangling from his ear. As of now, as we have come to expect with the high-priced Boras clients, there are no potential buyers and no firming up of the options.

So are Boras and Scherzer overplaying their hand? They certainly do not believe so, as Boras eluded to CBSSports.com Insider Jon Heyman last month:

Premium free agents are rarely talked about at the GM [general manager] meetings. This is an owners’ decision. Every GM wants him. There’s always a place for him on every team. The issue is not whether the player is wanted. The issue is whether the owner will make the commitment to try to win the World Series.

That commitment is healthy. Scherzer already turned down a six-year, $144 million contract extension offer from the Detroit Tigers earlier this year, and several reports have Scherzer seeking well beyond that monetary figure. That was confirmed last week at the MLB winter meetings.

Max Scherzer is seeking a guarantee of more than $200 million, which only one pitcher (Clayton Kershaw) has achieved in MLB history.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 10, 2014

That $200 million asking price is not surprising considering the agent, but only one other pitcher in the sport has achieved that kind of money—Clayton Kershaw. For as good as Scherzer is, he is not in the statistical class of Kershaw, and there is about a four-year age difference between the two, with the Los Angeles Dodgers ace winning that bout, also.

Scherzer is considered to be better than Jon Lester, who agreed to a six-year, $155 million contract with the Chicago Cubs at the winter meetings. But is he really $50 million better? Aside from Boras, it is difficult to find anyone who thinks Scherzer is worth that much more, so it seems Lester’s deal could hurt Scherzer‘s value.

Then again, all it takes is that “One Dumb Owner” to accept the terms. Longtime New York Daily News columnist Bill Madden set forth that phrase years ago in reference to Boras always finding his mark, as he has done with guys like Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder.

In Fielder’s case after the 2011 season, it appeared Boras overvalued his client. But when Victor Martinez blew up his knee training that winter, Detroit Tigers owner Mike Ilitch pounced on Fielder and gave him $214 million over nine years. If not for that injury to one of the game’s premier hitters, Fielder’s situation might have played out much differently.

Boras escaped embarrassment there, but we have seen his clients in the past overplay their hands and end up late in the offseason without a deal. That has forced some to settle for less than what Boras promised he could get or to be forced into one-year “pillow deals.”

Michael Bourn is the most recent example. He wanted seven years and around $80 million—or at least Boras did—when he hit free agency after the 2012 season, but Boras could only land him $48 million over four years with the Cleveland Indians. That deal wasn’t reached until days before players reported to spring training.

No one will be surprised if Scherzer‘s journey reaches February, especially because teams that can afford Scherzer are likely to exhaust every other avenue before even engaging Boras about his 30-year-old client.

The free-agent market still features James Shields, a pitcher who could command half the years and maybe less than half of the salary Scherzer is seeking. Shields is not an ace, but he is a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm that becomes far more attractive when his demands are set next to Scherzer‘s. Once Shields does sign, Scherzer‘s suitors will become a bit clearer.

The trade market offers plenty of options, but despite being cheaper in terms of money, they will cost plenty in personnel. Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Johnny Cueto are all front-line pitchers available in trades, but their teams will be asking for plenty in return. Then again, signing Scherzer will cost a draft pick because he turned down Detroit’s qualifying offer.

Logical theories have Scherzer‘s options limited to three teams for now: the Tigers, Washington Nationals and New York Yankees. The Tigers because of Boras‘ relationship with Ilitch despite GM Dave Dombrowski saying they aren’t pursuing Scherzer, the Nationals because they could trade Zimmermann for a sweet haul before adding Scherzer‘s money and the Yankees because it’s hard to believe them when GM Brian Cashman says Scherzer is “on a higher [financial] level than we’d like to play in right now.”

All three of those teams are in win-now modes, with those windows potentially closing as their current rosters stand. So believing Madden’s one owner comes from one of those clubs is not an absurd theory.

It is also not absurd to think that, considering the markets for pitching, Boras is overvaluing Scherzer. We have seen him do it before, and we have seen him do it with an A-1 client (Fielder) only to be bailed out by an unexpected circumstance.

It is hard to bet against Boras because we have seen him nab ridiculous amounts of money for players that 29 other owners did not see worth the bounty. And if a team like the Nationals or even the Dodgers make a blockbuster trade involving one of their pitchers, they suddenly become Boras‘ obvious target.

For now, it is too early to say Boras and Scherzer are overplaying their hand. This is still typical in Boras‘ world of negotiating. However, if in a month from now we are still wondering where Scherzer will pitch, the conversation can be rehashed with a different outcome.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Just because Major League Baseball’s busy-as-all-get-out winter meetings are in the rearview mirror doesn’t mean the hot stove has to cool down any time soon.

Having been over the winners and losers of the busiest four days baseball has had in quite some time, it’s time to turn attention toward what still might happen next.

The offseason is only a month-and-a-half old, which means there’s enough time for a heck of a lot more moves to be made before pitchers and catchers report in mid-February.

Like, perhaps, some of these predictions.

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