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Now that left-hander Jon Lester has signed with the Chicago Cubs, Max Scherzer is easily the No. 1 free agent remaining on the market. Heck, a strong case could be made that the right-hander, who won the 2013 American League Cy Young Award, was the top talent in free agency when the offseason began.

Combine that with the fact that Scherzer, who spent the past five years with the Detroit Tigers, is represented by agent Scott Boras, and the stud starting pitcher is in line for a massive payday.

Question is: Just how massive?

As you’ve probably heard, seen and read by now, the asking price coming out of Scherzer‘s camp is—gulp—north of $200 million, as Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported:

Sounds steep, right?

Lester, of course, just got $155 million over six years from the Cubs, or $11 million more than Scherzer rejected as an extension offer from the Tigers last March, and an amount that Scherzer should top based on his stuff as well as his status in the market.

But $200 million? As great as Scherzer is, and even factoring in that any clubs that missed out on Lester might feel a little more desperate to spend on a front-of-the-rotation star, he’s not close to $45 million better than Lester.

And given that Scherzer already is 30 and will turn 31 in late July—he’s about six months younger than Lester—the team that eventually does sign him is going to be paying for two, maybe three more above-average-to-ace seasons followed by his declining years.

In case you need a reminder, the history of players who signed nine-figure deals as free agents, especially pitchers, ain’t pretty.

Kevin Brown. Mike Hampton. Barry Zito. CC Sabathia. Cliff Lee. Zack Greinke. Masahiro Tanaka.

Cha-ching?

And for further context, since Scherzer and Boras apparently want $200 mil—or at least, that’s the price at which they’re starting the negotiations—here’s a rundown of the 10 largest pitcher contracts in baseball history.

You’ll see Lester’s $155 million smack dab in the middle of that well-paid group. But what do you also notice?

That the only pitcher to surpass—let alone sniff—a contract with a “2” followed by eight zeroes is Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Kershaw, who by age 26 has won a record four straight MLB ERA titles and three Cy Youngs in the past four seasons, became the first—and so far only—$200 million arm because he’s a freak of nature still in his prime who also happens to play for one of about five teams that can afford to spend that much on a single player.

In other words, the circumstances were just right for Kershaw to get his $215 million, even if he wasn’t yet a free agent like Scherzer is now.

So throw out the idea of $200 million for Scherzer. Ain’t happening.

That said, Scherzer is worth more to some teams than others, namely contenders, and particularly contenders that need pitching—but only contenders who also have the financial fortitude to max out on Max.

That’s simultaneously a larger cross section of clubs than you might think and a small enough subset that the price likely won’t be driven up by more than two or three teams at most.

The clubs who fit the bill include, perhaps: the Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and maybe the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs.

Detroit already has indicated it’s out of the Scherzer game, according to general manager Dave Dombrowski via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press:

The Yankees? They seem intent on not splurging this winter after forking over half a billion dollars to drop from 85 wins to 84, and they have too many 30-plus-year-olds making $150 or more (Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Jacoby Ellsbury and Sabathia).

The Red Sox still need an ace after coming up short on Lester, but they were hesitant to pay him more than $135 million, per Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com, so why would they go much higher than that for Scherzer?

The Angels are up against the luxury-tax threshold, thanks to albatross contracts they handed out to Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, just paid more than $32 million to unload Matt Kemp on the San Diego Padres, and they don’t have a pressing need for a stud starter, what with Kershaw and Zack Greinke atop the rotation.

Even for big-market contenders, the reasons to avoid giving in to Scherzer and Boras‘ $200 million demands stack up quickly. But let’s not pretend Scherzer isn’t going to get his money from some team—and a whole lot of it, too.

Going back to the top-10 pitcher contracts table above, there’s a pretty sizable gap in two places: after Kershaw ($215 million) and after Hernandez. That second range, between Sabathia’s $161 million and Hernandez’s $175 million, could be Scherzer‘s sweet spot.

The amount he signs for won’t be what’s being asked for up front, but Scherzer will top Lester. The real question, then, is whether he’ll approach Verlander and Hernandez in the $175 million-to-$180 million range.

If that happens, Scherzer and Boras may have to “settle” for being the second-highest-paid pitcher ever.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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History suggests the St. Louis Cardinals rarely go all-in during the offseason. After dealing starter Shelby Miller to the Atlanta Braves for Jason Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden, rumor has it the Cardinals may be scripting another chapter in their offseason history book. By playing fact or fiction with the latest buzz surrounding the Cardinals, I will offer you a better understanding of what is possible and what remains pure fantasy based on the team’s biggest need—starting pitching.

It’s likely the Cardinals aren’t done wheeling and dealing. Facts are buried under the layers of smoke screens combined with how the free-agent market takes shape. Predicting general manager John Mozeliak’s next move would be like calling the weekly weather in the Midwest.

The tragic death of rookie outfielder Oscar Taveras rewrote the Cardinals’ offseason agenda. Suddenly, the Cardinals went from needing minor tweaks to being desperate for a big move.

Has Mozeliak locked himself in his office while pondering another big move? Will the GM throw a lucrative deal at a starting pitcher to aid the best rotation in the National League Central Division? 

The clock is ticking as Mozeliak digs in. 

Are the Cardinals plotting to offer Max Scherzer a contract?

Given the recent history of the Cardinals and acquiring free agents, it would be unwise to fathom Mozeliak and owner Bill DeWitt Jr. presenting Max Scherzer with a gaudy contract.

However, I believe this is purely a fantasy.  

The Cardinals need another starter after trading Miller. 

The 2015 projected rotation consists of Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, John Lackey, Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez. Martinez will enter spring training as a starter, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Wainwright and Lynn are staples. Lackey is on the back end of his career, and Wacha‘s health remains a mystery after dealing with a rare stress fracture in his right shoulder. Even if Martinez enters the regular season as a starter, he is inexperienced and will need time to adjust to pitching every fifth day. There’s also Jaime Garcia, who is an injury-plagued lefty that can never remain healthy for an entire season.

Back in March, Detroit Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski made a significant offer to Scherzer in an effort to keep him in Motown. The offer was worth north of $25 million per season and failed to match the contract Justin Verlander signed prior to the start of the 2013 season.

To no surprise, Scherzer rejected the offer and opted for free agency, where he can cash in. And he deserves that ability after winning the American League Cy Young Award in 2013 and reaching 18 wins last season.

The Cardinals haven’t publicly expressed interest in any free agent, which would be foolish to do. But Scherzer remains an attraction for multiple reasons. 

The Cardinals have the payroll flexibility to sign Scherzer if they choose to do so. Scherzer is from the area and stated the Cardinals were his dream team.

“It would be too cool,” Scherzer told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in March. “I grew up there. When you’re a little kid, you picture yourself putting on the [Cardinals] uniform.”

Indeed, that says a lot about Scherzer. But it’s just an idea for the time being.

The Cardinals could certainly use the services from the kid they originally drafted, and a substantial offer isn’t out of the picture. Still, the odds of the Scherzer coming home remain slim. 

Are the Cardinals in the running for Jon Lester?

According to ESPN, there is a fourth team bidding for Jon Lester. Though the ghost team has yet to be identified, the Cardinals are believed to be it.

And why not? The Cardinals have resources to invest in Lester. Mozeliak doesn’t have the luxury of waiting for his prospects to mature like he used to. 

Lester has taken his time deciding which organization he will pitch for in 2015. When you’re one of the top pitchers on the market, why wouldn’t you be patient and let GMs bid against each other while jacking up the price tag?

It’s a good move by Lester and his camp.

At first, it didn’t seem likely the Cardinals would seek Lester.

It’s funny how quickly things change.

At the July 31 trade deadline, the Boston Red Sox were 12 games under .500. The season was lost, and the focus shifted to the future. Boston shipped Lester to the Oakland Athletics at the trade deadline last season. In northern California, Lester helped the A’s reach the playoffs by winning six of his 11 starts.

For Lester, reaching the playoffs last season marked the fifth time he’s done so in his career.

In my opinion, Lester is the best option in terms of starters on the market. He’s a winner—and an experienced one. Lester has two World Series rings (2007, 2013). He’s a perfect 3-0 in his three World Series starts over his career.

The Cardinals would be wise to present Lester with a hefty contract, especially with the uncertainties regarding the health of Wainwright and Wacha. 

With a chance to reverse their current offseason trend, the Cardinals have an opportunity to make a big splash by signing one of the most attractive starters on the market. They won’t get both, but I believe they will land one. 

And that man is named Lester. 

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Max Scherzer spent the 2014 season doing more than just playing baseball. During the course of the year, from spring training through the playoffs, the free-agent right-hander also was conducting a rather interesting—and really risky—experiment of sorts.

Coming off a career year in which he won the American League Cy Young in 2013, Scherzer famously rejected a six-year, $144 million extension from the Detroit Tigers last March.

At the time, that amount would have made him the seventh highest-paid pitcher in history, which is why the decision could have been described as anything from questionable to silly to selfish—and, yes, even brilliant.

Sure, Scherzer could have signed on the dotted line right then and there and secured more money than just about any human being has a right even to dream earning in a lifetime.

Instead, Scherzer gambled on himself, figuring that with another strong season, he would be entering free agency, where his market would explode from a single team (the Tigers) to all 30 clubs in Major League Baseball. So, too, would the money.

“Back then only we could have signed him,” Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, via Joel Sherman of the New York Post, about last March’s offer. “Now, 29 other teams could sign him. As you see, the odds don’t improve.”

That’s how Scherzer and superagent Scott Boras, who almost always gets top dollar for his elite clients, decided to let this experiment play out.

After a 2014 season that was nearly as great as his award-winning 2013—his ERA (2.90 in ’13 vs. 3.15 in ’14) and FIP (2.74 vs. 2.85) were more or less the same—Scherzer has set himself up rather nicely this offseason.

Or has he?

While the 30-year-old right-hander unquestionably is going to get a massive multiyear, nine-figure contract, there are reasons he and Boras might be sweating things out at least a little bit, even as the temperatures dip this winter.

For one thing, a number of teams already have spent big merely a month into the offseason.

The Tigers, with whom Scherzer played the past five years, chose to re-sign designated hitter Victor Martinez for $68 million.

The Boston Red Sox, who have a major need for starting pitching, handed out large contracts to position players Hanley Ramirez ($88 million over four years) and Pablo Sandoval ($95 million for five).

The Toronto Blue Jays, another team that has a hole at the top of its rotation, splurged on catcher Russell Martin, who netted $82 million, the second-largest deal in franchise history.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, yet another club searching for arms, signed outfielder Yasmany Tomas—perhaps the next Cuban phenom—to a six-year, $68.5 million pact.

The Seattle Mariners just agreed to pay DH Nelson Cruz $57 million to help them end their 13-year playoff drought after inking third baseman Kyle Seager to a $100 million extension.

Put simply, a number of teams that could have splurged on Scherzer—and a lot of the money that could have been forked over to him—now cannot.

The second reason Scherzer‘s experiment might not necessarily pay off quite as much as he and Boras had hoped? The pitching market is absolutely flooded at the moment.

There are all kinds of free-agent arms, including high-end names Jon Lester and James Shields, as well as others like Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana and Brandon McCarthy.

And on the trade front, there are even more highly regarded options. Among them? The Philadelphia Phillies’ Cole Hamels, the Oakland Athletics’ Jeff Samardzija, the Washington Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, the Cincinnati Reds’ Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos and the San Diego Padres’ Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy.

With so many pitchers readily and apparently available, it’s at least possible that teams will look elsewhere at less expensive—but still very good—options rather than give in to Scherzer and Boras‘ demands.

In such a scenario, they might not be able to do much better than the $144 million.

“It’s not the best time to be looking for a big deal,” one unnamed GM told Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required).

On the other hand, two things remain very much in Scherzer‘s favor.

First, he is considered arguably the best free agent on the market this offseason along with Lester. Historically speaking, that player almost always gets paid as much as—if not more than—expected.

And because he is a free agent, Scherzer‘s services can be acquired strictly for cash. Granted, the signing team also will lose a draft pick because he rejected the qualifying offer, but the club won’t have to surrender talent from the major or minor leagues to get him, unlike a team would for each of the trade candidates above.

Second, there has been almost no action involving pitchers so far.

The most notable free agent to sign so far? That’d be A.J. Burnett, who turns 38 in January and got $8.5 million from the Pittsburgh Pirates after posting a 4.59 ERA for the Phillies and then considering retirement.

In terms of trades, the biggest pitchers to change jerseys are Shelby Miller, who went from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Atlanta Braves, and Jeremy Hellickson, who went from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Diamondbacks. (Is your spine also not tingling?)

That means the high point of the salary scale for pitchers hasn’t been set or even approached yet.

That could change soon, as there has been plenty of heat around Lester, who has met with several clubs and reportedly has an offer of $138 million from the Chicago Cubs, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

If the left-hander gets $130 million to $140 million—or more—than Scherzer should be able to beat that considering he is as good as, if not better than, Lester and thus would become indisputably the premier target left on the open market.

The other factor here? Boras is known for his slow-burn strategy, having his top-tier clients remain available for a long time, well beyond the winter meetings and even occasionally into the new year, at which point the market clears up and desperation starts to seep in—for the teams.

As Olney writes:

Some club evaluators fully expect Scherzer‘s contract talks to carry over for weeks, as agent Scott Boras works to make a big deal happen—something significantly more than the six-year, $144 million deal that the Tigers offered to Scherzer in the spring. Boras‘ negotiations often play out way past the winter meetings, and there is so little current buzz around Scherzer.

To that end, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, the teams with the two highest payrolls in 2014, have yet to do much of anything this offseason.

While the former doesn’t have a huge need for a starting pitcher and the latter claims to be staying away from big-money contracts (for once), per the New York Daily News, it wouldn’t be a shock to see one or both go in on Scherzer, depending on how their plans work out—or don’t.

Scherzer and Boras ultimately need only two suitors willing to spend in order to create leverage and drive up the price for the right-hander.

While it’s been quiet so far, chances are the top free agent and top agent will be able to devise just such a scenario, one likely involving more than two teams.

Once that happens, whether it’s in the coming days, weeks or even in a month or two, expect Scherzer to do better than the $144 million he turned down.

The ultimate price tag attached to him might not be much above that amount, but even if it’s $145 million—to say nothing of $150 million or $160 million—the plan will have been carried out as predicted.

Scherzer‘s experiment will have worked.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The American League East is forcing the New York Yankees’ hand. 

The Boston Red Sox are making another play to go from worst to first in the division, signing two of the more coveted hitters on the free-agent market in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez while trying to lure ace pitcher Jon Lester back to the city. The Toronto Blue Jays picked up the best catcher on the market in Russell Martin, just traded for one of the league’s top third basemen in Josh Donaldson and still could re-sign Melky Cabrera, giving them a deep, potent lineup for 2015.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles are still the defending division champions and aren’t expected to relinquish the title meekly.

That leaves the Yankees, who finished 12 games behind the Orioles last season, vulnerable to missing the playoffs for a third straight season. Keeping up with the rest of the division could require the Yankees to once again dig deep into their pockets and shell out money. They swung and missed with that approach last year, having spent $471 million on free agents only to again miss out on October baseball.

However, do not expect the Yankees to run wild in the same fashion this winter. More than likely, the team is going to focus on specific needs—shortstop, the bullpen, third base, starting pitching—and try to keep spending at a moderate level.

Then again, that could change as it did a year ago.

“Don’t be surprised if their plan changes a month from now,” one executive told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. “It’s happened before.”

As of now, the hope for the Yankees is the money they dished out last year actually pays off in a playoff appearance next fall, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested:

Column http://t.co/WXzl7uOrfc Most important fr agt pacts #Yankees sign for 2015 season were ones already signed last offseason

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 25, 2014

While the Yankees have been linked to expensive free agents this offseason, none of that means much until the checks are signed. That includes a rumor that they had made an offer Saturday to ace Max Scherzer, via Dan Pfeiffer of the MLBlogs Network. 

That did not seem to make much sense given the team’s spending goals this winter, but the Yankees also put payroll limitations on themselves last year only to break them. YES Network’s Jack Curry eventually shared news that the Yankees were still sticking to their current plan of not going after a free-agent ace like Scherzer, Jon Lester or James Shields: 

Yankees haven’t offered Max Scherzer a 6-year deal. That report is inaccurate.

— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) November 29, 2014

Owner Hal Steinbrenner already thinks the payroll is at its limit, according to Sherman. Spending nine figures on a pitcher, or anyone else, would only further hamper the Yankees, making them inflexible with several long-term, expensive contracts for players on the wrong side of 30.

If the spending spree last offseason did not fix the Yankees’ troubles, it’s safe to assume throwing more money at the problem won’t fix it this time around either. The team already has close to $170 million committed to next season’s payroll, and that does not include arbitration raises or what it will take to sign a shortstop and possibly re-sign reliever David Robertson, starter Brandon McCarthy and third baseman Chase Headley.

Bidding wars for Robertson and even Headley could get too rich for the Yankees. Robertson reportedly already has a three-year offer on the table, and he might be seeking a fourth, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That would likely push the Yankees out of play for him. As for Headley, seeing Sandoval get $95 million from Boston means his price is going up, and the San Francisco Giants are likely to pursue him, further driving up the cost for the Yankees.

Because the Yankees have a thin farm system, competitively spending to land guys like Robertson, Headley or even one of the free-agent aces like Scherzer is still a possibility.

“It will be high, I can tell you that,” general manager Brian Cashman said of the team’s payroll next year, according to Feinsand. “It will be impressive. I’m just hopeful to have a roster that’s as impressive”

That does not necessarily mean the team will go on a spending spree. It simply means the payroll is already high and can’t help but to go up by Opening Day. The underlying message here, especially with that last comment, is Cashman knows the current payroll obligations are not going to be enough to get the Yankees back in to the postseason, especially when taking into account the spending within the division already in this offseason.

The Red Sox and Blue Jays have clearly put themselves in win-now mode because of their spending for players nearing 30 or already beyond that age. The Yankees are trying not to be reactionary as they have in the past, but seeing a couple of rivals surpass them in the division’s hierarchy might be too much to handle.

The Yankees don’t want to spend wildly for a second consecutive winter, and that would probably be wise. However, the Steinbrenner family has always valued winning above virtually all else.

Seeing the rest of the division rise could very well mean the Yankees dip back into the piggy bank to buy talent within the next two months.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The Detroit Tigers have all but relegated themselves to playing next season without last season’s ace, Max Scherzer. 

In fact, they pretty much did so in March when Scherzer turned down a six-year, $144 million extension offer. Once that happened, general manager Dave Dombrowski was pretty much free to start allocating the extra savings elsewhere.

Now here the Tigers are, eight months later. Scherzer’s free-agent market has not developed a month into the offseason, which was expected, and the Tigers have all but discounted him as an option for next season.

“Back then only we could have signed him,” Dombrowski said at the GM meetings earlier this month via Joel Sherman of the New York Post. “Now, 29 other teams could sign him. As you see, the odds don’t improve.”

Dombrowski must now figure out how to dole out the money the Tigers will save assuming they lose Scherzer along with right fielder Torii Hunter. Just based on last season’s salaries, that is a savings of nearly $30 million for 2015 between those players, and the Tigers have needs.

They can do without re-signing Scherzer or someone comparable like Jon Lester, which is why they are not in the rumor mix for either guy. David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello make up the rotation for next season. Whoever the Tigers stick in the fifth spot will round out a formidable fivesome that is still good enough to compete for the American League Central title.

This is of course assuming the Tigers have no desire to trade Price or Porcello, who each have one year remaining before they can become free agents and possibly walk away from the Tigers as Scherzer is expected to do. Knowing the Tigers are in danger of losing those guys for nothing but a compensation draft pick, the Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox have poked around about acquiring one or both of those pitchers. Even Sanchez has been a topic of conversation.

Trading from that pile would leave the Tigers searching for pitching, but as of now they don’t have a pressing need there. Most of the team’s immediate uncertainty is in the bullpen. That unit was among the worst in the majors—27th in ERA (4.29)—and closer Joe Nathan was second in the league with seven blown saves.

Regardless of last season’s ugliness, Dombrowski has said he is comfortable with his reliever situation. Part of the reason is because the Tigers picked up Joakim Soria’s $7 million option after trading for him during last season, and they expect to have Bruce Rondon ready for spring training after he missed last season because of Tommy John surgery.

Even still, the bullpen can’t be called reliable until it performs as such, and with the money the team is saving on Scherzer, adding a quality, dominant free-agent reliever like Andrew Miller seems like the easy play. Miller, who was drafted by the Tigers in the first round in 2006, had a 2.02 ERA and 0.802 WHIP in 62.1 relief innings last season between the Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles. The Tigers even witnessed his dominance firsthand in October when Miller pitched 3.1 scoreless innings against them in the American League Division Series.

However, the Tigers seem to have zero interest in Miller. While the bullpen needs more help than just one arm, if Dombrowski truly is comfortable with his current guys, adding someone like Miller should make him ecstatic. This is a guy capable of pitching in any inning, including the ninth, and averaged 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings while pitching better than his ERA (1.51 FIP).

Those numbers could push Miller’s average annual value beyond $10 million. But even with that money, the Tigers have their infield, catcher and one of their outfield positions locked in, so splurging in the bullpen seems reasonable.

“I think he’s the perfect fit for the Tigers,” Sports Illustrated baseball writer Tom Verducci said on MLB Network on Monday.

Alas, the Tigers are likely to pass on Miller. If they find themselves in another bullpen mess come next July, they could be greatly regretting that decision.

Seeing reports that #Tigers are out on Andrew Miller. Can’t wait until they decide to trade prospects for him in July.

— Dan Hasty (@DanHasty34) November 25, 2014

The Tigers have this money, but how they will spend it seems to be a mystery. What is known is they are in a win-now mode and watching their window to contend for a World Series close as they rely on aging stars. So hoarding the money won’t do them any good, especially since they already chucked $68 million at Victor Martinez this offseason.

The Kansas City Royals are now a legitimate threat to the top of the division, and if the Tigers can’t find a way to effectively allocate the money they are saving on Scherzer, the Tigers could lose that crown for the first time in five years.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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It is Thanksgiving, which means the holiday season is in full swing.

With Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez both going to Boston and a few other free agents already signed, it is clear that baseball’s offseason is well underway as well. Rumors are swirling and whispers are making their way across the league about which teams are after certain players.

However, one team has been unusually quiet: the New York Yankees.

It has been two seasons since the Yanks made the playoffs, and their roster is in serious need of some help, so you know that New York is bound to have an eventful winter. The question is, who are they going to get and when?

Keeping in mind that there is still plenty of time left in the baseball offseason, take a look at how likely it is the Yankees land a few guys they could really use.

Begin Slideshow

A chill in the air, “Deck the Halls” blaring in every department store and the New York Yankees throwing gobs of cash at a top-tier free agent—those are the signs that tell us winter is on its way.

This year, though, the Yankees are threatening to break with tradition. 

On Nov. 3, as the hot stove was just crackling to life, Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News reported that after handing out $450 million in contracts to free agents Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran last year, the Yankees weren’t “looking to add any more $100 million deals to their payroll.”

Bob Nightengale of USA Today concurred, predicting the Yankees, despite finishing 84-78 and missing the playoffs, would stand pat and try “to keep their team from a year ago intact.”

Not everyone was convinced. Super-agent Scott Boras spelled it out to Nightengale: “The Steinbrenner history has always been ‘We’re going to win.’ It serves their brand.”

Boras’ star client this offseason is Max Scherzer, the pre-eminent arm in a crowded market. Not coincidentally, Scherzer and New York have been linked in more than a few rumors and rumblings. 

Nothing’s moved past the speculation phase, but CBSSports.com‘s Jon Heyman thinks the Yankees “may revisit their initial instinct to largely sit this winter out,” and that Scherzer could be the reason why. 

He’s certainly tempting. New York needs pitching (what club doesn’t?), and Scherzer can flat-out pitch.

After winning the American League Cy Young award in 2013, the 30-year-old right-hander posted a 3.15 ERA with 252 strikeouts in 220.1 innings for the AL Central champion Detroit Tigers in 2014. 

Of course, big numbers mean a big price tag. Scherzer rejected a six-year, $144 million offer from the Tigers in March and opted instead to test the free-agent waters, per Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com.

Expect Boras to ask for more years and dollars, and get both.

The Yankees are no strangers to gargantuan pitcher paydays. Prior to the 2009 season, they inked CC Sabathia to a seven-year, $161 million pact, at the time the biggest ever for a hurler.

Will they break another record, and the bank, to secure Scherzer?

One factor that could force New York’s hand is the aggressiveness of the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees’ hated AL East rivals have already made sizable free-agent splashes, signing Hanley Ramirez, per Heyman, and Pablo Sandoval, also per Heyman, two of the biggest bats on the block. 

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post put it: “In the good old days—let’s call that the early part of this century—the Yankees and Red Sox had a Pavlovian baseball relationship. One would act decisively and the other would counter-punch. Usually this would be done with swelled egos and even larger wallets.”

Then there are the defending AL East champion Baltimore Orioles and retooling Toronto Blue Jays to consider. 

And yet, Sherman adds, this year’s Yanks are preaching discipline and restraint. It’s a new mantra for a club that has long reigned as baseball’s biggest spender and still trails only the Los Angeles Dodgers in the check-writing department.

Really, New York’s primary targets could be internal—guys like pitcher Brandon McCarthy, closer David Robertson and third baseman Chase Headley.

Add those potential contracts plus the impending return of the enigmatic Alex Rodriguez, and New York is poised to spend plenty next season without welcoming a single new face.

Still, does that feel like a Yankees offseason—or an offseason, period? This franchise doesn’t simply re-up its own and call it a day. 

They’re the Bombers. They swing for the fences. 

That’s what a Scherzer signing would be: a cut from the heels, with all the attendant risk and reward. It could be a bang; it could be a bust.

Either way, it’d put New York back in the headlines. It’d shift the balance of power. And most essentially, it’d make winter feel like winter.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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With their most important bit of offseason business (re-signing Victor Martinez) wrapped up, the Detroit Tigers can now turn their attention to other needs. These needs used to include adding an outfielder, but Anthony Gose’s acquisition seems to have satisfied that. Re-signing the rehabbing Joel Hanrahan will help strengthen the bullpen, which was and still is another need, if the former Pittsburgh closer is healthy. Still, more bullpen additions can be expected.

If the team does sign free agents to fill the need, or goes after trade targets to achieve the same purpose, it wouldn’t come as a shock to anyone. But history tells us that the Tigers general manager makes transactions that shock just about anyone—generally making deals to acquire premium players at positions where an upgrade isn’t necessary. Past examples include signing Ivan Rodriguez and dealing for Miguel Cabrera and David Price.

After re-signing Victor Martinez and handing out arbitration raises to standout performers like Price and J.D. Martinez, the Tigers will have little wiggle room financially. This shouldn’t dissuade any thoughts of Detroit making a big move.

In December of 2009, Dombrowski sent Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson packing in a three-team trade with the Yankees and Diamondbacks to avoid giving them hefty raises and to alleviate pressure on the salary cap. The deal allowed the Tigers the room to sign lockdown closer Jose Valverde. The trade also brought Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer to Motown. The moral of the story is that Dave Dombrowski knows how to make impact moves on a tight budget.

Detroit’s general manager is already helped by the fact that the collective salaries of Torii Hunter, Don Kelly, Phil Coke and Joba Chamberlain have come off the books, thus giving him some wiggle room. While a percentage of that money was likely allocated to Victor Martinez and saved for arbitration rises, it still creates cash.

Dombrowski knows how to make his team younger, with the Granderson/Scherzer deal serving as a chief example. He has already acquired a young, controllable player with considerable upside in Gose and may not be done dealing.

Already, rumors are swirling about potential Tigers moves. The latest involves listening to trade offers for catcher Alex Avila. Dealing Avila would seem unconventional for a couple of reasons, one being the fact that Avila works well with Detroit’s starting pitchers. A second is that defensively the catcher grades out positively, while bringing power to the lineup as a left-handed hitter. Thirdly, the next catchers in line for the Tigers are backup Bryan Holaday and prospect James McCann.

Dealing Avila would mean that Detroit either has another deal lined up/in the works for a cheaper catcher they feel is an upgrade or that they feel McCann is ready to take the next step and start full-time.

Despite all the potential negatives, sending Avila to another team comes with benefits. The first would be wiping his salary from the books—Avila will make $5.4 million next season. The second would mean that the team could move on from a player who has been seriously affected by injuries.

Avila is still a starting catcher in the major leagues and certainly brings positive attributes to the table, but he isn’t what he once was. His finest hour came in 2011, when he posted an .895 OPS and drove in 82 runs. Injures soon ran rampant on Avila’s offensive production. Starting with the 2011 postseason, where he hit .063 against New York in and .080 against Texas.  The catcher has hit a combined .235 since 2011.

With surprise moves becoming the norm this offseason, (thanks to the Jason Heyward/Shelby Miller trade and the Mets signing of Michael Cuddyer), it wouldn’t be a shock to see the baseball landscape rocked by an unlikely Dombrowski trade. He’s turned potential salary cap burdens into, among others, a Cy Young winner (Max Scherzer) and a player used to acquire yet another player with a Cy Young on his resume (David Price).

It’s unknown if Alex Avila’s name will appear in the transactions logs due to a trade, but it wouldn’t be surprising. Neither would be a conceivable, cost-cutting trade of a player like Rajai Davis. The bottom line is that Dave Dombrowski and the Tigers front office know what they are doing, and with the offseason in full swing (pun!), the ball is in their court.

All stats courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com/ unless otherwise noted. 

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Most free-agency talk regarding the Washington Nationals this winter will start and end with their search for a second baseman. But MLB‘s offseason isn’t called the “Hot Stove” because of aging middle infielders moving teams. 

It’s true, Washington could probably trot out its roster as is and contend for its second consecutive division title. But, as The Washington Post‘s Thomas Boswell points out, a blockbuster signing is never out of the question with Nats general manager Mike Rizzo. 

Rizzo proved that to be true in 2011 with the acquisition of outfielder Jayson Werth and in 2012 when he brought in starter Gio Gonzalez, two players who have been instrumental in the Nationals’ recent success. 

This time around, it’s free-agent hurler Max Scherzer’s name that is punctuating the discussion of second base options like Jed Lowrie and Stephen Drew. 

Washington’s biggest waves in free agency should come once the likes of Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister are either dealt or signed to extensions, but the Nationals are highly unlikely to remain quiet all offseason.

Therefore, here are the chances some of Washington’s most notable targets don the red, white and blue next season.

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In only about three years, Theo Epstein has built the Chicago Cubs farm system into one of the game’s best.  Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez and Jorge Soler are four of the most exciting young prospects in the league, and 28-year-old right-hander Jake Arrieta emerged on the scene as a potential ace with a sterling year in 2014.

The Cubs also made national headlines recently with their hiring of Joe Maddon, one of the best managers in the league.  Maddon found a way to win with a Tampa Bay Rays team that was young and fairly talented.  Give him a loaded roster of perennial prospects, and the ceiling seems limitless.

However, they still need to add one more very important piece: a dominant starting pitcher who can pitch deep into games every fifth day and take the ball in the first game of the playoff series the Cubs hope to be in, possibly this year.

Jon Lester seems to fit the bill.  He is as durable as they come, recording at least 31 starts in each of the past seven years and pitching at least 200 innings in six of those years.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, it looks like their chances of signing Lester might be slipping away.  The Cubs made their pitch to the southpaw Tuesday, but Peter Gammons said on Dennis & Callahan, via WEEI.com, that his sources lead him to believe Lester will end up signing elsewhere.

“I think the one thing—obviously the Cubs are going to make every play—I get the feeling the Cubs think he’s going to go back to Boston,” he said. “I think it’s very smart for Lester and his agents to hold for another week.” 

However, it’s not like the Cubs need to put all their eggs in the Lester basket.  There is another superb starting pitcher on the free-agent market—a guy by the name of Max Scherzer.

Scherzer and Lester are both 30 years old, but Scherzer doesn’t have nearly the experience or the postseason pedigree Lester has.  Scherzer was a late bloomer, a former elite prospect who finally came into his own when he was traded to the Detroit Tigers from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Scherzer has actually been a better pitcher than Lester over the past three years:

While Lester has a few more innings pitched over that span, Scherzer has a much better win-loss record, a lower ERA and 160 more strikeouts.

I still think Lester would be a better fit due to his longer track record of success and his sterling postseason statistics, but if the Cubs cannot convince him, Scherzer is a terrific option.

He has put together a tremendous three-year run in the American League, so he should be even more dominant in the National League, where he would have the luxury of facing the pitcher’s spot instead of a designated hitter.

However, Scherzer is going to demand a huge payday.  A Scott Boras client, the 2013 Cy Young Award winner turned down a six-year, $144 million extension from the Tigers before the 2013 season.  

The fact that he rejected such a lucrative offer means he is going to relish his time on the open market, with Boras viciously negotiating with as many teams as he can get in the ring plus the “mystery team” he can engender to raise the stakes.

The Cubs are hoping to win now, and they are not going to let money stand in the way of winning their first World Series ring since 1908.  

With Scherzer headlining a rotation that features Arrieta, Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood, the Cubs would have plenty of pitching to complement their potentially dominant offense. 

If they do sign Scherzer or Lester, the Cubs could be legitimate contenders to make the playoffs in 2015. Once they get in, anything could happen.  And a dominant ace would give them a much better chance of making a deep postseason run.

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