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Coming into the MLB offseason, you could look at the Washington Nationals and conclude within, oh, three seconds that the last thing they needed to tinker with was their starting rotation.

But now it sounds like general manager Mike Rizzo might do that anyway. And if he does, he could do so in a big way.

First, one word around the campfire has the Nationals linked to free-agent right-hander Max Scherzer, otherwise known as the guy who won the 2013 American League Cy Young. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports had a conversation with a “prominent agent” about Scherzer’s market, and that conversation led him to put the Nationals at the top of a list of teams that could be interested in the 30-year-old.

Where Rosenthal was only speculating, Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish has heard from sources that the Nationals may indeed be positioning themselves for a run at Scherzer.

…But also that there would have to be at least one corresponding move. If Scherzer comes to Washington, Jordan Zimmermann and/or Doug Fister may have to leave.

That helps explain these tweets from Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

If the Nationals are really a player for Scherzer, this makes sense. As much as they would probably prefer to simply add him to a collection of starters—Zimmermann, Fister, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez—who posted an MLB-best 3.04 ERA in 2014, that’s a tall task.

It’s going to take a lot of money to sign Scherzer. Nobody knows how much just yet, but Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of $185 million over seven years sounds about right.

That would be an average of over $26 million per year, which would make Scherzer the highest-paid player on the Nationals by about $5 million over Jayson Werth. For a team already projected for close to $150 million in expenditures in 2015, we’re talking about arguably too big of an addition.

And that’s where dealing Zimmermann and/or Fister would come in.

Dealing Zimmermann would clear $16.5 million in payroll room for 2015. Going off Dierkes’ arbitration projections, dealing Fister would clear $11.4 million. As such, the Nationals may not be able to bring Scherzer aboard unless they deal both of them.

Whether Scherzer is worth so much trouble is a question that addresses several scenarios, but it starts with a big one: Just how good is he relative to Zimmermann and Fister?

Let’s keep this simple by looking at what these three guys did in 2014. And while there are dozens of stats we could look at to evaluate who’s better than who, let’s keep the simple motif by looking at the usual suspects plus a couple of ERA estimators in FIP and xFIP and Wins Above Replacement.

Courtesy of FanGraphs, we get:

By ERA, Fister was the best, Zimmermann was second best and Scherzer was the worst. But according to the ERA estimators, Scherzer and Zimmermann were essentially the same pitcher, and Fister drastically overachieved.

There is something to that assessment of Fister. It’s not too alarming that his strikeout rate suffered a drop-off in 2014, but you don’t want to see ground-ball pitchers suddenly stop getting ground balls at their usual rates. That’s something that could come back to bite him in 2015.

Based on that, the absolute best thing the Nationals can do is sign Scherzer and trade Fister. They’d basically be swapping out a faux ace for a real ace and could look forward to an otherworldly Scherzer-Zimmermann-Strasburg trio with which to chase a championship in 2015.

As for signing Scherzer and trading Zimmermann, that’s where things get really interesting. 

That the two were essentially equals in the eyes of the advanced metrics in 2014 isn’t misleading. It’s not worth nothing that Scherzer did his thing with more strikeouts and in the American League, but Zimmermann did his own thing to transform into a legit ace.

Zimmermann’s strikeouts experiencing a spike was overdue and not an accident. Brooks Baseball can show how he took to pitching up in the zone with his fastball more often, and how that bought him the whiffs he’d long deserved with his mid-90s velocity.

Take that adjustment and combine it with Zimmermann’s superb command, and he’s just as capable of overwhelming hitters using his stuff and pitching smarts as Scherzer does with his almost unfair collection of nasty stuff.

And that essentially means signing Scherzer and trading Zimmermann would result in the Nationals having basically the same pitcher for an extra $10 million or so per year. On the surface, that doesn’t seem overly logical.

But you have to factor in what the Nationals would be getting back if they were to trade Zimmermann. And in the opinion of Drew Fairservice of FanGraphs, he “surely carries more trade value than any other walk-year National, given his dominant 2014 season.”

Indeed. And knowing that the Atlanta Braves just turned one year of Jason Heyward into four years of Shelby Miller, it’s not hard to imagine the Nationals getting a similar controllable young talent for Zimmermann. Perhaps the second baseman they need to round out their infield, for example.

As for the long-term aspect of signing Scherzer and trading Zimmermann, that would obviously be punting on the idea of signing Zimmermann to an extension. That’s actually not the worst idea in light of what he told James Wagner of The Washington Post.

“If the deal is right, I’ll definitely sign a multiyear deal,” Zimmermann said. “I never once said I didn’t want to stay in D.C. But at the end of the day, the deal has to be right and the deal has to be fair and that’s all I’m asking for. Just pay me what I’m worth and I’ll be happy to stay. If we can’t come to common ground, I guess free agency is the next step.”

In other words: The Nationals need to give him market value. Knowing that Zimmermann is only 28 with a strong track record and one year to go until free agency, “market value” for him may mean something more like Cole Hamels’ $144 million extension than Homer Bailey’s $105 million extension.

As such, a choice between Scherzer or Zimmermann likely boils down to spending a whole lot of money on Scherzer and taking advantage of Zimmermann’s considerable trade value or spending a whole lot of money on Zimmermann and taking advantage of Fister’s lesser trade value.

It’s a tough call, but yours truly thinks the needle tips slightly in favor of the sign-Scherzer, trade-Zimmermann idea.

That leaves just one last scenario: signing Scherzer and then trading Zimmermann and Fister. And compared to the other two, this idea isn’t as easy to get behind.

What the Nationals would be doing is turning a very deep and very good rotation into a not as deep and not as good rotation. By far the club’s biggest strength from 2014 would be gone, and conventional wisdom suggests they’d sorely miss their loaded rotation in the postseason.

However, we just saw conventional wisdom get turned on its head. The Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers all got bounced from October despite having elite starting pitching. The overarching message sent by their defeats was that a deep rotation is no longer a guarantee of success in October.

The Kansas City Royals stamped that home when they made it to Game 7 of the World Series without great starting pitching, riding a top-level bullpen and inspired overall team play instead. The San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, showed that merely having one excellent starting pitcher can be enough to win it all.

By signing Scherzer and dealing Zimmermann and Fister, the Nationals could conceivably follow either blueprint. The Zimmermann and Fister deals would presumably make them a deeper team around their rotation, and said rotation would still have at least two titans in Scherzer and Strasburg who could lead the way both in the regular season and in October.

So sign Scherzer and trade Fister? You can win.

Sign Scherzer and trade Zimmermann? You can win.

Sign Scherzer and trade Fister and Zimmermann? That’s arguably the best way the Nationals can win.

If signing Scherzer and dealing Zimmermann and/or Fister is truly Rizzo’s master plan, he has a lot of phone calls to make. But knowing what those calls could do for the Nationals, they’re worth making.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked. Salary and payroll information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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As Pete Rose can tell you, there are strict rules prohibiting betting on baseball when you are in uniform.

As Max Scherzer told us all year, there certainly are no rules against betting on yourself.

Seven months and 3,638 pitches later (Scherzer ranked third in the majors, by the way, behind David Price at 3,730 total pitches and Johnny Cueto at 3,659), the man who declined a ginormous six-year, $144 million offer from the Detroit Tigers is primed to earn even more as a free agent.

As the hot stove fires up, a handful of MLB executives and scouts surveyed by Bleacher Report predict that Scherzer will be a very rich man by the time he reports to camp next spring with the mystery team blank checks (which, word has it, trains in Tall Cotton, Florida).

“It’s a guessing game, but somebody’s going to give him the money,” one longtime National League executive said.

“The offer was so public that everyone knows about it,” a longtime American League executive said of the Tigers’ failed pitch. “So to get in the game, if you’re serious about signing him, you’ve probably got to go higher.

“Because he doesn’t want to look bad, and you want to get a guy coming into spring training on a positive note. So as sick as that sounds, it’s got to be for six or seven years.”

The executives and scouts quizzed for this story all spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly about either their own team’s winter plans or the plans of others.

But with Scherzer leading a free-agent pitching brigade that includes Jon Lester and James Shields as the other marquee names, the feeling among industry insiders is that, as usual, market demand will outstrip supply. And Scherzer easily will exceed the Tigers’ $144 million offer.

“I think so,” another NL executive said. “You read that the Yankees aren’t going to go after a big one [free agent]. There’s always the Dodgers. I imagine he’ll get more than that.”

The average annual value of the Tigers offer computes to $24 million a year. Tack on a seventh year at that figure, and you’re talking about a $168 million deal. And that still may be low. Two Decembers ago, Zack Greinke, who is nine months older than Scherzer, signed a six-year, $147 million deal with the Dodgers.

One insider predicts a contract “In the [Masahiro] Tanaka range of $175 million,” which takes into account the right-hander’s seven-year, $155 million deal plus the $20 million posting fee the Yanks paid to Tanaka‘s Japanese club, Rakuten.

The Red Sox and Cubs both badly need pitching. The Yankees, despite publicly saying they don’t expect to take on big free-agent contracts, can never be counted out. The Rangers? Always aggressive and creative in the winter. The Cardinals? Scherzer is from St. Louis.

Let the negotiating and the armchair sleuthing begin.

“He’s a horse, there’s no doubt about that,” the AL executive says. “If somebody does go to seven years, it’s got to be a place where he wants to go, too. He’s a Missouri guy. The Cardinals wouldn’t surprise me on him.

“Him turning that money down told me he didn’t want to go to Detroit. Will he take the biggest offer and go to the Yankees? Will he take less and go to the Cardinals? Whatever floats his boat. I’d rather play for the Cardinals. If I’m from Missouri, I do that.”

Scherzer is a smart, educated and fiercely independent man who knows his way around numbers. He loves business. He is one of a handful of players who can talk sabermetrics and analytics intelligently and with passion.

He also is represented by Scott Boras, which immediately reduces the odds that he will take a hometown discount here or lesser dough there as a concession to lifestyle. Boras treats the hot-stove league as Julius Erving once treated Slam Dunk Contests. Throw the next one down harder than the last one.

Scherzer earned a Cy Young Award in 2013 and turns 31 on July 27. He ranked third in the majors this summer in strikeouts (252), 26th in ERA (3.15, ninth in the American League) and 29th in WHIP (1.18, 13th in the AL). He has helped pitch the Tigers into the postseason in four of his five summers in Detroit.

“I’ve seen him since he was a kid, and his stuff always has been top-shelf,” one NL executive said. “I never thought he’d hold up. He’s got stiffness and max effort to him. But he’s been great.”

Scherzer long has been known as a max-effort guy, which translates into a pitcher some scouts fear: There is a violence to his windup and delivery, rather than a smooth, effortless look. Often, that leads to injuries. In the case of Scherzer, it hasn’t.

It sure fuels the debate over the big dollars, though.

“Personally, I wouldn’t give it to him,” one longtime NL executive says. “For the main reason, this guy’s a hard-working guy, but there are a lot of pitches on that arm.

“Is he good? Would you like to see him start for your club? Of course. But does he scare me? Yeah. This is a guy who is a max-effort guy. He gives everything he’s got. He only has one complete game, which is no big thing these days. But there are a lot of pitches on that arm over the past six or seven years.

“If he’s a kid of mine, I’d have kicked him in the ass for turning down that kind of money.”

His decision last spring has sparked many debates. The Tigers took the unprecedented step of issuing a press release in March explaining that they had attempted to make him a Tiger for life, but the ace declined. A Sports Illustrated cover story in April asked, “Max Scherzer has a Cy Young arm and a beautiful mind to match, but did he make a dumb wager on his future?”

Scherzer was incensed over that. Over the rest of the summer, he compiled an 18-5 record, threw a career-high 220.1 innings and, start after start, proved that his decision was a calculated gamble on himself, not the crazy, against-the-odds move of a degenerate.

“This guy’s a No. 1 starter,” stated the same longtime NL executive who said he would have gotten after his own son for turning down that kind of dough. “He needs help at the end of games, which most of them do. He’s a seven-inning guy. But this is a guy who will go out in [the] first inning at times and not have it, allow four runs, and he’s still pitching in the seventh, giving his best.

“That’s the type he is. There are a lot of things you like about Scherzer.”

As clubs almost certainly will be talking about a contract that will take Scherzer to 36 or 37, projections regarding how he will age likely will play a factor in negotiations as well. And despite all of the “max effort” talk, his health so far remains encouraging.

“I think he’ll be OK in that he doesn’t have to throw in the upper-90s to be effective,” one NL scout said. “He’s got that real good changeup. He should be able to make that transition when his stuff is not 95, 96 mph anymore.

“I’ve been surprised over the years that his control has been so good. I thought he’d have a problem with that, too, but he’s proved me wrong.”

Scherzer has been in the business of proving many wrong throughout his career, including the Diamondbacks, who traded him in December 2009. Now poised for the biggest payday of the winter, Scherzer is about to stick it to all of those who doubted him for spurning $144 million in Motown.

“He’s awfully strong,” an AL scout said. “We always said about Kevin Appier that he was gonna break down, gonna break down. Scherzer is so strong; some guys can handle their mechanics, and he’s one of them.

“He added a curveball two years ago, and his changeup has gotten better and better every year. He’s always had the slider. He was a two-pitch guy when he came over from Arizona.

“He’s tough, and he competes.”

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.

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Both Max Scherzer and Jon Lester will command big-money contracts this upcoming offseason. 

But because this is the offseason, it’s only natural to compare the two most coveted free agents in the 2015 class.

Although each pitcher is regarded as a top-tier starter, the similarities end there. Scherzer is a flame-throwing right-hander, capable of posting high strikeout totals any time he takes the hill. While Lester is no slouch when it comes to velocity, the southpaw mostly depends on heavy movement to induce weak contact on the ground.

2014 produced another stellar chapter in the careers of the two studs. Lester went 16-11 in 32 starts, posting a career low 2.46 ERA. Scherzer was equally impressive, winning 18 games and striking out over 10 per nine innings.

But who is the safer bet going forward? 

Using a variety of advanced metrics gathered from FanGraphs, we can dig deeper into each pitcher’s performances and come up with a fair comparison. However, instead of focusing on just one season of sample data, the stats used throughout the article took place over a three-year span from 2012-14.

Standard Statistics 

On the surface, the two aces have posted similar numbers when it comes to typical pitching stats. 

Age is often a critical factor when evaluating free agents, but in this case, both pitchers enter the market at 30 years of age. 

Lester and Scherzer have also been able to remain relatively healthy over the past three seasons. You won’t find two more durable guys in all of MLB, as each ranks in the top 10 in starts and top 11 in innings pitched since 2012. 

Standard stats provide enough data for the casual observer to judge if a player is good or not, but they lack the necessary detail that allows for meaningful comparisons.

So let’s move on to the more advanced metrics, starting with some rate statistics. 

Rate Statistics 

Strikeout rate and walk rate are two stats that a pitcher actually has control over.

Obviously, more strikeouts and fewer walks are the ultimate goal for any pitcher, but using a metric that measures on a nine-inning scale helps the stats become easier to understand.

Strikeout percentage and walk percentage are similar methods that factor how many strikeouts or walks a pitcher records in relation to batters faced. 

Here’s how Lester and Scherzer compare in this aspect:

As the numbers show, Scherzer is a strikeout machine. Over the last three seasons, only Yu Darvish ranks higher in K/9 and strikeout percentage. His ability to fan opposing hitters is Scherzer’s biggest asset, as he can wiggle out of jams by allowing no contact. 

Scherzer’s knack for the strikeout is obviously aided by a blazing fastball. But Scherzer’s average fastball velocity of 92.8 in 2014 was actually the lowest of his career. To counter this inevitable drop in velocity, his changeup usage increased to a career-high last season. Continued strikeout numbers with diminishing velocity and the continued improvement of his changeup bode well when projecting Scherzer’s future production.

Need some evidence? How about Scherzer’s nine-strikeout performance against the Twins in September? Check out the 33-second mark to see his changeup in action against Kennys Vargas:

For Lester, seven strikeouts a game is still impressive. The keys to this comparison are virtual dead-even walk statistics.

Scherzer is striking out nearly three more batters a game than Lester while walking an almost identical amount. This isn’t a knock on Lester, but strikeouts are arguably the most translatable stat for a pitcher. With more strikeouts and similar walk totals, Scherzer bests Lester in this aspect of pitching.

To better understand the difference in strikeouts between the two aces, let’s see how the stat impacts each starter’s run prevention.

ERA Simulators 

Now we’re getting to the good stuff. 

ERA has widely been regarded as one of the most important stats when evaluating a pitcher’s performance.

The problem with ERA is that it is highly dependent on luck, sequencing and defense. Fielding Independent Pitching, Expected Fielding Independent Pitching and Skill-Interactive ERA have actually started to become more appropriate than ERA in recent years. 

The below table shows the difference between Lester and Scherzer in ERA simulators:

Pretty convincing, right? Scherzer is better than Lester in every category and by significant margins. 

To better explain FIP, here’s a quote from FanGraphs:

FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him, for example.

FIP focuses on the results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, HBP and home runs. Scherzer betters Lester in each of those stats, aiding his FIP supremacy.

SIERA and xFIP take that concept further. SIERA is especially useful at predicting future production, because it takes into account balls in play. As FanGraphs puts it, SIERA “attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs.”

Any way you want to slice it, Scherzer’s been better over the past three seasons at preventing runs from crossing the plate. FIP, xFIP and SIERA are the most accurate ERA simulators, and the data they provide are a great indicator of what the future holds.

The name of the game for a pitcher is keeping runs off the board. Once again, Scherzer is much more reliable in regard to run prevention.

Win Probability 

With the advancement of modern-day statistics, players can now be given values representing how they individually affect their team’s chances of victory. 

If you’ve been paying attention up to this point, then you’ll surely be able to guess which free-agent ace has impacted his team’s success the most since 2012:

Win Probability Added captures how an individual affects his team’s win expectancy. Not only has Scherzer been more important to his team than Lester since 2012, but the right-hander ranks fifth in WPA and third in pitching WAR in MLB during that time.

By analyzing the advanced metrics best suited to project going forward, it’s clear that Scherzer has been the better pitcher over the past few seasons.

His strikeout numbers and run prevention statistics should lead you to believe his success is more sustainable than Lester’s reliance on good defense and luck on balls in play. 

Don’t get me wrong—Lester is an elite starter in MLB. But when comparing him with Max Scherzer, there’s really no question who the stud of this free-agent class is. 

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Justin Verlander has struggled this year.  Actually, that’s a bit generous. 

Sugarcoating aside, he has been terrible.  His current 4.54 ERA is the second-highest of his career, and his strikeout total is at its lowest since 2006, his first full season in the big leagues.  His 1.40 WHIP is tied for the highest in his career, and he just hasn’t been the dominant ace he once was.

However, maybe that ace is starting to come back as the games become more important.  He pitched a gem two starts ago against the Royals, the Tigers’ biggest AL Central competitors, and outdueled White Sox ace Chris Sale on Wednesday.

In that start against Chicago, he was masterful.  He allowed seven hits, struck out six and did not walk a batter while pitching eight innings for only the second time all season.

Verlander’s recent performance is almost a carbon copy of last year’s.  He was not quite as bad in 2013 as he has been so far this year, but it seems that he is once again flipping a switch as October nears.

In last year’s postseason, Verlander took the team on his back, leading the Tigers past the Athletics with two stellar outings in the ALDS.  He started Games 2 and 5, and his two fantastic outings in those games brought back memories from his Cy Young-winning 2012 season. 

In Game 2, he struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings of work, but the Tigers couldn’t muster any offense and lost 1-0.  Then, with the season on the line in a winner-take-all Game 5, Verlander prolonged the season with 10 more strikeouts in eight scoreless innings, catapulting Detroit into the next round.

He turned in a similar effort in Game 3 of the ALCS, but the one run he gave up in eight innings was enough to get him the loss as the Tigers once again came out on the short side of a 1-0 game.

2014 has been eerily similar.  He started the season strong but ran into a wall in the second month of the season.  He pitched poorly in May, June and July, amassing ERAs of 5.54, 6.82 and 4.78, respectively.

He started pitching better in August, but then a debacle against the Pirates saw him pitch only one inning, give up five runs and then injure himself running to first after a sacrifice bunt.  That fluke injury forced him to miss some time, and it seemed like he and his team had both hit rock bottom.

Even after acquiring David Price from the Rays in a stunning trade minutes before the trade deadline, the Tigers were out of first place and in danger of missing the playoffs altogether.  The bullpen was so bad that some speculated about the Tigers inserting Verlander into the closer’s role for the postseason.

The Tigers decided to stick with Verlander in the rotation, and he has made good on that trust.  The Tigers are 6-1 in Verlander’s seven starts since returning to the rotation, and he has gotten the victory in five of those.

Detroit’s magic number is now three, meaning if a combination of Tigers wins and Royals losses reaches three, the Tigers clinch the division and avoid the treacherous one-off Wild Card Game.

If Verlander is right, which I think he is now, the Tigers are going to be scary over the course of a five- or seven-game playoff series.

An overpowering pitching rotation of Max Scherzer, David Price, Verlander and Rick Porcello will be very tough for any opponent, and the offense is pretty good as well.

Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are two of the best hitters in the entire MLB, and the additions of Ian Kinsler and Rajai Davis give the lineup a dynamic it didn’t have last year.  For example, when Davis stole his 35th base of the season in Wednesday’s win against the White Sox, it matched the number of steals the Tigers stole as a team in 2013.

In last year’s playoff run that ended in the ALCS against the Red Sox, the offense did not have anything even resembling a running threat, forcing the Tigers to play base-to-base baseball, basically waiting for an extra-base hit or a string of hits to score runs.

Now, though, they have Davis, who has over 300 stolen bases in his career.  He has been one of the league’s most prolific base stealers over the past six years; he has averaged 42 steals over those years.  You can guarantee that if the Tigers are locked in a close game, Brad Ausmus will have the confidence to give Davis the green light to get into scoring position.

Back to pitching, the bullpen has been disastrous for most of the season.  The Tigers signed Joe Nathan in the offseason, but his ERA has been around five all year.  They acquired Joakim Soria at the deadline for some late-inning help, and Anibal Sanchez has returned from the disabled list as a reliever as well.

However, Verlander might be the X-factor.  Which one will show up: the terrific Verlander or the one with a 4.50 ERA?

If last year is any indication, Verlander will turn it on and be an ace.  If he can pitch at the same level he did in last year’s postseason, the Tigers have to be dark-horse candidates to advance all the way to the World Series.

The American League is loaded with the likes of the Angels, Orioles, and A’s, but with Verlander at his best, the Tigers have three Cy Young-caliber pitchers to go along with one of the best offenses in the league. 

It’s going to come down to Verlander, and if he is up to the task, watch out for the Detroit Tigers.

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The Detroit Tigers have enjoyed a storied 121-year history, winning 11 American League pennants and four World Series championships.

Much of this success can be attributed to the iconic pitchers that have donned the “Olde English D” during their careers.

Guys like Hal Newhouser, Mickey Lolich, Jack Morris and Justin Verlander have demonstrated their mound excellence for fans of almost every generation since World War II and provided the foundation for many of the great Tiger teams.

In this article, we’ll look at the best Tiger hurlers of all time by using three specific criteria.

Most importantly, we’ll consider each candidate’s regular-season performance. Second, we’ll take into account each pitcher’s longevity. In other words, one-year wonders need not apply. Finally, we’ll assess how each pitcher has fared in the postseason, when the heat is on and the pressure to perform is at its greatest.

Begin Slideshow

Poised to win the American League Central for the fourth consecutive year, the Detroit Tigers‘ fortunes this October will rest squarely on the right arm of one Justin Brooks Verlander. 

Admittedly, that’s a bold statement, especially when you consider Detroit’s $164 million roster includes the likes of 2012-13 MVP Miguel Cabrera, 2013 Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, 2013 A.L. ERA leader Anibal Sanchez, five-time All Star Victor Martinez and new arrival David Price, who happened to win the Cy Young in 2012.

But Verlander is the Tigers’ No. 1 starter. Their Big Dawg. Their hombre. Their bouncer. Their ace. And to win in October you need an ace.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, Verlander has done everything this season but pitch like an ace. In fact, his 4.66 ERA this season is more than a full run higher than any of the Tigers’ other starters, and his WHIP of 1.42 also ranks as the worst among his rotation mates. Those are definitely not results the Tigers’ front office envisioned when it gave Verlander a seven-year, $180 million extension last year in the hope he would be the horse the organization could ride to its first world championship since 1984.

It’s imperative Verlander rights the ship before the start of the playoffs for three reasons. First, the rest of the Tigers’ rotation does not eat enough innings to compensate for the team’s weak, overworked bullpen, which will leave Detroit vulnerable in the late innings against playoff-caliber offenses like the A’s, Angels and Orioles. 

Price is a horse, but in Scherzer and Sanchez, (we’ll assume No. 5 starter Rick Porcello will head to the bullpen in the playoffs), manager Brad Ausmus has two capable starters who’ve averaged only 6.1 innings per start since the beginning of last season. This means Ausmus will be relying on the bullpen to get eight highly leveraged outs in what will likely be razor-tight pitching duels where one misplaced fastball or hanging curve could have disastrous results.

Let’s look at Detroit’s bullpen for a second. Closer Joe Nathan has enjoyed a stellar career with 363 saves and a 2.88 ERA, but this year he’s already blown five saves in just 27 attempts, and his ERA is a bloated 5.45. 

Setup man Joba Chamberlain has had an excellent season, but he’s just two years removed from Tommy John surgery and on pace to nearly equal his personal best of 73 appearances in a season. 

Right-hander Al Albuquerque has also posted good numbers this season; However, his heavy workload may already be affecting his dynamite stuff. His FIP, per Baseball-Reference.com, of 4.32 suggests his current ERA of 3.26 will rise and his K/9 of 10.5 is his worst mark by almost two full strikeouts.   

Finally, left-handed specialists Ian Krol and Phil Coke’s aggregate ERA and WHIP of 4.77 and 1.60, respectively, have caused Ausmus to reach for the Rolaids on more than one occasion this season.

Recently acquired Joakim Soria is solid, but even after his arrival from Texas, Detroit’s bullpen will still be a little short. This is where Verlander comes in. Vintage Verlander—assume the 2012 model when he had a 2.64 ERA to go along with a 1.06 WHIP and averaged 7.1 innings per start—would give his manager the luxury of saving his beleaguered bullpen for other games when an eight-out effort will be necessary to achieve a win.

The second reason why Detroit needs Verlander to return to form is that he and his fellow starters must mask an inconsistent offense. Although Detroit’s 495 runs scored ranks fourth in the A.L., and its OPS of .765 paces the junior circuit, the Tigers’ offense has gone in the tank for extended stretches this season and has been particularly susceptible to power pitching. 

For example, during a 9-17 stretch from May 19 through June 18, Detroit faced hard throwers like Trevor Bauer, Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Drew Hutchison and Chris Sale and hit only .258, or 20 points below their full-season average.

It will only get tougher in October, when the Tigers will probably have to face the likes of Gray (remember his eight shutout innings in Game 2 of the AL Division Series last year?), Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, Felix Hernandez and Garrett Richards multiple times in a series. Detroit will need its starters to bring their “A” games for such matchups, meaning Verlander pitching like he has for most of this year simply won’t cut it.

The Tigers’ poor defense is the final reason why Verlander will need to regain his old magic once the leaves start to change color. Although second baseman Ian Kinsler and rookie shortstop Eugenio Suarez make a solid double play combination, Cabrera and Nick Castellanos offer below-average range at the corners. And Torii Hunter and J.D. Martinez, who has earned a starting job because of his hot bat, are among the A.L.’s worst outfielders according to Baseball-Reference.com’s UZR rankings.

Simply put, Detroit’s starters will need as many strikeouts as possible to negate the team’s porous defense. While Scherzer, with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings, has actually improved his pace from last season, Sanchez’s and Verlander’s K/9 are down significantly. Verlander’s drop—from 8.9 in 2012 to a pedestrian 6.6 this year—is particularly alarming and will have to be improved.

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Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer tossed the first complete game of his career in Thursday’s 4-0 win over the Chicago White Sox, thus ending his record-setting run of 178 starts without a complete game to begin a career, per ESPN.com. Tony Armas, who last pitched in 2008 and has 167 starts to his name, is now the current record holder for most games at the beginning of a career without finishing an outing.

Scherzer was even more dominant than usual Thursday night, allowing only three hits and three walks over nine innings as he out-dueled Chicago ace Chris Sale for the victory. The White Sox got only one runner past second base all game, and it would have been none if not for an error by Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera.

Sale took the loss for Chicago, despite pitching nearly as well as the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. In seven solid innings, the southpaw struck out 10 Tigers and walked none while allowing just one run on a Victor Martinez solo home run to lead off the fifth inning. It was the third time in Sale’s career that he struck out at least 10 batters without allowing a walk.

Unlike Scherzer, Sale has never had a hard time going the distance, as he owns six complete games in just 68 career starts. Scherzer‘s name stands out among the pitchers who took the longest to toss a complete game, with the list mostly populated by middling starters like Armas and fellow Tiger Rick Porcello, the latter of whom started 146 contests before finally recording a complete game last season.

While keeping the pitch count down has never been Scherzer‘s strength, he’s good enough that there will undoubtedly be a few more nine-inning performances in his future.

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A quarter of the way through the season, the 2014 American League Cy Young race isn’t lacking in participants. Masahiro Tanaka is one standout. So is Sonny Gray. And Mark Buehrle. And usual suspects Felix Hernandez and Yu Darvish.

But don’t sleep on the guy who won it last year. Or underestimate him.

In fact, it’s probably best if we all recognize that Max Scherzer is still the guy to beat.

The Detroit Tigers ace right-hander was at it again Friday night, taking on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Though the rains came and tried to cool Scherzer off after he opened with three hitless innings, he shook off a lengthy delay to ultimately make it through six scoreless innings. He allowed three hits, walked four and struck out seven.

Torii Hunter’s RBI single in the first proved to be enough, as four Detroit relievers combined to finish off what Scherzer started for a 1-0 Tigers victory.

Detroit is now 25-12 and, interestingly, holds both the best home record (13-8) and road record (12-4) in the American League.

According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, this is not lost on the man of the hour:

Scherzer‘s actual performance, meanwhile, wasn’t the most dominant we’ve seen from him since he rose to prominence in 2013. It did, however, succeed in launching him to the top of some key AL categories.

After entering the game tied with Buehrle for the AL lead in ERA at 2.04, Scherzer‘s now all alone at the top with a 1.83 ERA.

As for what Scherzer‘s seven punchouts accomplished, the Tigers’ official Twitter feed can fill you in:

On a related note, Scherzer also leads the AL in strikeout rate with 11.14 strikeouts per nine innings. That’s quite the improvement over the 10.08 K/9 he posted on his way to the Cy Young in 2013.

For the more sabermetrically-inclined, one thing Scherzer isn’t leading the AL in like he did last year is FanGraphs WAR. He ranks fifth in fWAR, trailing Friday night opponent Jon Lester, Corey Kluber, Darvish and Hernandez.

But since FanGraphs WAR is based off of Fielding Independent Pitching, a metric that calculates what a pitcher’s ERA should be, it’s essentially WAR based on theoretical runs allowed. For WAR based on actual runs allowed, FanGraphs has RA-9 WAR (Runs Allowed per Nine WAR).

And there’s where we find Scherzer at the top of the AL, and by half a point over Tanaka to boot.

You get the idea. Just like in 2013, it’s becoming very easy to build a case for Scherzer as the best pitcher in the American League. If anything, it’s even easier this year.

There’s a good reason for that: Scherzer looking like a better pitcher can be traced to his efforts to become a better pitcher.

It’s not hard to classify Scherzer. He’s a guy with a mid-90s fastball, and any pitcher with one of those is a power pitcher. Check and mate.

But this leads us to something fascinating about Scherzer. Power pitcher though he is, it’s remarkable how his game is continually becoming less about power.

This graphic from Brooks Baseball can explain:

All you’re looking at is Scherzer‘s pitch selection over the years. What should stand out is the black dots that represent his fastball usage, and how the line connecting them is heading nowhere but down.

Ever so slowly, Scherzer the power pitcher has been trying more and more to craft himself into Scherzer the pitcher, with 2014 being just the latest step in that direction.

And yeah, it’s working pretty well.

In light of how Scherzer‘s been throwing a few extra sliders and changeups in 2014, it’s an awfully good look that the whiff rates on both pitches have gone up. Another benefit of the changeup in particular is that its extra usage has also helped Scherzer‘s ground-ball rate.

And while the less-than-awesome 3.05 BB/9 rate that Scherzer currently boasts suggests he’s having trouble finding the strike zone with this less fastball-heavy approach, that’s not entirely true.

FanGraphs says Scherzer actually entered his Friday start throwing 50.5 percent of his pitches in the strike zone. That ranked seventh in the AL, and is a huge improvement on how many of his pitches found the zone in 2013 (45.9 percent).

So those league-leading statistics we talked about earlier? Those are no fluke.

Scherzer was able to dominate American League hitters with more of a power-oriented approach in 2013. We shouldn’t be surprised that he’s dominating them even more with the use of a more nuanced approach that he has a good handle on in 2014.

That’s a guy who’s not likely to stop making fools of AL hitters. And as long as he’s doing so, he’s not going to make it easy for the competition to go toe-to-toe with him in the AL Cy Young race.

It’s almost as if Scherzer really wants to become the first pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000 to win two straight AL Cy Youngs.

Though, here’s guessing his upcoming free agency might also be a factor.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Off to a 4-1 start, the Detroit Tigers should feel a sense of urgency this season after the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals proved in 2013 that they were quickly closing the gap in the AL Central.

But if the Tigers can at least partially fill the gaping hole in the middle of their lineup that the trade of slugger Prince Fielder created, their starting rotation is still good enough to carry the team into the postseason for a fourth consecutive season and into the World Series for the third time in nine years. 

Their World Series opponent, if you believe the so-called experts, will likely be the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are the unanimous favorite with sportsbooks, according to Odds Shark, to win it all.

If their talent on paper can translate to wins on the field and they can overcome an extended absence of ace Clayton Kershaw, who is currently on the disabled list with a back injury, then we can look forward to a star-studded World Series matchup between the Dodgers and Tigers. 

Those two teams will get an early look at each other when the Tigers visit Dodger Stadium for a two-game series starting Tuesday at 10:10 p.m. ET. 

While the team’s respective aces, Kershaw and Justin Verlander, won’t make an appearance—Kershaw has 13 shutout innings versus the Tigers in his career; Verlander has never faced the Dodgers—the four starting pitchers scheduled to pitch are no slouches.

Missing Verlander, the 2011 AL Cy Young Award winner, would normally be a relief for opponents. But with 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer—who tossed eight shutout innings in his first start of this season—on the hill in Game 1 and Anibal Sanchez, the reigning AL ERA champ, scheduled to take the mound on Wednesday, the Dodgers are not getting much of a break. 

Their lineup won’t be at full health, either, with catcher A.J. Ellis (arthroscopic knee surgery) expected to be placed on the disabled list prior to Tuesday’s game and Yasiel Puig at less than 100 percent health with a strained thumb ligament. 

Regardless, a Puig-less lineup might have a better shot against the Tigers’ duo. They are extremely tough against right-handed hitters, who posted a .536 OPS against Sanchez and .494 OPS versus Scherzer in 2013. Right-handed batters are 2-for-19 against the pair thus far in 2014. 

In addition, left-handed hitter Andre Ethier, who would likely take Puig’s spot in the lineup, has had success against Scherzer over his career (6-for-15, HR, 2B).

If manager Don Mattingly really wants Puig, who is 6-for-24 with a homer and a double to start the season, in the lineup for at least one of the games, he could opt to sit Matt Kemp against Scherzer after checking out his career numbers against him. Kemp is 0-for-16 against Scherzer with no walks and four strikeouts. 

There’s no doubt that Scherzer and Sanchez are tough, helping to form one of, if not, the best top of the rotations in the game. But, after the Dodgers’ weekend series against the San Francisco Giants, the heart of the Dodgers’ lineup is shaping up to be just as impressive.   

Despite losing two out of three games to the rival Giants, the Dodgers have plenty to be excited about moving forward.

Kemp, who missed most of 2013 and is coming back from ankle and shoulder surgeries, looked as healthy as he’s been in a long time with a two-homer game on Sunday. Hanley Ramirez, who played in only 86 games last season because of multiple injuries, matched Kemp with two homers on Sunday and went 6-for-11 in the series with two doubles to go along with the home runs. Adrian Gonzalez also had two doubles and a homer. 

A healthy Kemp and Ramirez and a productive Gonzalez hitting in between them could give the Dodgers the most dangerous “heart of the order” in all of baseball. 

As Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times noted, the Dodgers have never been able to pencil in a healthy Kemp and Ramirez in the same lineup. 

“Hanley is on a different level,” Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke said. “If Matt’s like that, like he was today, you don’t want to face this lineup.”

Of the potential middle-of-the-order trio, Gonzalez added, “That’s a pretty good three-four-five.”

The Tigers lineup as a whole, though, has been much more impressive. Second in baseball with an .825 OPS through five games, this group is quickly easing concerns over how to replace Fielder’s production behind Miguel Cabrera. 

Leading the charge is Austin Jackson, who has moved down from the leadoff spot to protecting Cabrera and cleanup man Victor Martinez in the No. 5 hole. The 27-year-old center fielder is 7-for-20 with two doubles and a triple. Rookie third baseman Nick Castellanos (5-for-13, 2B) is also off to a strong start, as is veteran shortstop Alex Gonzalez (4-for-11, 3B) and outfielder Rajai Davis (3-for-9, HR, SB).

Bottom-of-the-order production could be key to the Tigers’ season, as well as in this series against the Dodgers. Only Martinez (9-for-26, HR, 2 2B) has success against Dan Haren, who will start Tuesday’s game. 

In game two, they’ll face either Josh Beckett, who might be activated from the disabled list, or lefty Hyun-jin Ryu, who would be making his fourth start of the season.

The Tigers were shut down by the lone lefty starter they faced so far this season. Kansas City Royals pitcher Jason Vargas allowed only one earned run against them in seven innings on five hits, one walk and six strikeouts. 

While the most interesting storylines involve the stars—Kemp and Ramirez versus Scherzer and Sanchez—each team’s ability to get the ball to their respective closer could be the difference in these games. 

Dodgers setup man Brian Wilson is on the disabled list with nerve irritation in his elbow, while the guy who was supposed to be the Tigers’ primary setup man, Bruce Rondon, is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The next most viable candidate, free-agent acquisition Joba Chamberlain, allowed two runs and four hits in his lone inning of work this season. 

J.P. Howell, Chris Perez and Chris Withrow have more than made up for Wilson’s absence, however, accounting for a combined 12.1 scoreless innings.

On the other hand, the Tigers have yet to find that reliever who will step up and take hold of a late-inning setup role. Al Alburquerque and Phil Coke have each had shaky outings, and closer Joe Nathan has struggled, allowing runs in each of his last two appearances and blowing a save.

If the baseball world is to be treated to a first-ever World Series matchup between the Dodgers and Tigers, the Dodgers will need their stars to stay healthy. The Tigers will need to strengthen their bullpen and continue to get production from the bottom of the order. 

But most teams, if not every single one of them, have questions to answer at this point of the season. It’s quite possible that the two most talented teams in baseball will take the field at Chavez Ravine on Tuesday and Wednesday before continuing on journeys that could lead them back to the same place as World Series opponents in late October.

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The Detroit Tigers signed two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera on Thursday to the highest payout in MLB history per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

Heyman wrote that the extension was worth $248 million over eight years, which means he will be paid $292 million over the next 10 years with the two years he had remaining on his old deal. The deal was made just a few days after contract talks ceased with Cy Young winner Max Scherzer.

Should the deal with Cabrera influence Scherzer to test the open market after this season?

Scherzer is fresh off his best season as a big leaguer, setting career-highs in wins (21), ERA (2.90) and WHIP (0.970), including taking home his first Cy Young award. The 29-year-old is currently on the books for a one-year, $15.53 million deal.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted on March 23 that the Tigers offered Scherzer six years and $144 million but the right-hander was looking for eight years, per ESPN’s Jim Bowden. The club did not help its cause when it issued a statement making their Cy Young winner sound difficult to negotiate with.

The Detroit Tigers have made a substantial, long-term contract extension offer to Max Scherzer that would have placed him among the highest paid pitchers in baseball, and the offer was rejected. As we have reiterated, it has been the organization’s intent to extend Max’s contract and keep him in a Tigers uniform well beyond the 2014 season. While this offer would have accomplished that, the ballclub’s focus remains on the start of the upcoming season, and competing for a World Championship. Moving forward there will be no further in-season negotiation and the organization will refrain from commenting on this matter.

With Scherzer set to be a free-agent, it would not be a bad idea to look for a new club to pitch for. The Tiger’s will be paying four players at least $16 million each in 2015, including Cabrera and Justin Verlander, who will make $22 million and $28 million respectively.

In a rotation that already features Verlander and Annibal Sanchez, why not give Scherzer the money he wants? It seems odd that the Tigers wouldn’t fork over the deal he is looking for and keep one of the best rotations in baseball intact. 

Not giving him eight years gives Scherzer an incentive to get out of town. It gives an impression that the organization doesn’t value him as much as they value Verlander. Especially considering the performances of each righty last season.

That doesn’t mean that Detroit wouldn’t be willing to give $24 million annually to Scherzer, which is what the deal that was offered would be worth. The eight-year deal he wants would put the contract number at $192 million.

But for a guy who has improved his numbers over the past three seasons, as seen in the chart below, can you argue with him wanting eight years? Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues that Scherzer’s total pitch count after six major league seasons is far lower than other aces when they received their big extensions.

“Of course, he and agent Scott Boras can argue his wear and tear pales compared to those peers and thus positions him in the proper place to seek more,” wrote Passan.

It would make perfect sense for Scherzer to test the open market. There would be no shortage in teams interested in his services. He has pitched at least 30 games each season over the past five years and has a career strike out rate of 9.4 per nine innings.

On top of that, Bowden says Scherzer has injury protection through an insurance policy. It would make the former Missouri Tiger more willing to test free agency if he doesn’t get the deal he wants.

Scherzer has been one of the top pitchers in baseball over the past couple of years. He should test the open market and get the deal he is looking for after this season.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

You can follow Trey on Twitter @treydwarren

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