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With starting pitcher Homer Bailey officially off the 2014-2015 free-agent board after agreeing to a long-term contract extension with the Cincinnati Reds, the pressure could be rising for the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers to get deals done with their own free agent-to-be front-line starters. 

Red Sox ace Jon Lester and Tigers co-ace Max Scherzer, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, were already on track to be the cream of the crop when it comes to free-agent starting pitchers next offseason. Bailey had a decent chance to join them if he could duplicate his numbers from the previous two seasons.

But after the Reds guaranteed the 27-year-old Bailey (pictured) $105 million over the next six seasons—a total he wouldn’t likely have reached had he struggled on the mound or battled injuries during the upcoming season—his 2014 performance is now highly unlikely to have a negative effect on the market value of Lester or Scherzer.

If anything, the agents for each pitcher would have an even stronger argument should their client have a better season than Bailey, who hasn’t been quite as dominant as Scherzer over the past couple of seasons… 

…and can’t come close to matching Lester’s much longer track record of success. 

So while Bailey is a year younger than Scherzer and two years younger than Lester, that may have been his agent’s lone argument as to why his client’s contract should be comparable to either.

Barring a drastic decline from Lester—who Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald figures could ask for at least $20 million per season on his next contract—or Scherzer in 2014, their respective agents should be able to point to Bailey’s deal and negotiate an even better one.

This is bad news for their respective teams, who aren’t likely to view the compensation draft pick gained in June 2015, should either pitcher sign elsewhere, as much of a consolation prize considering how big of a hole either departure would create.

Had Bailey and the Reds been unable to reach an agreement, things could’ve been more favorable for the Red Sox and Tigers in their quests to sign Lester and Scherzer.

A subpar performance from Bailey in 2014 and there would be no $105 million deal set as the starting point in negotiations. A third consecutive strong season from Bailey would mean Lester and Scherzer (pictured) would have another established front-line starting pitcher to compete with on the free-agent market and their bargaining power could decrease as a result.

With this in mind, they could’ve been more open to signing a contract extension with their current team prior to the start of free agency. 

As things stand, however, the sense of urgency from the Lester/Scherzer camps to get a long-term contract done prior to next offseason has likely decreased. Next year’s free-agent market, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post pointed out, keeps getting worse with Clayton Kershaw also removed from the list after he agreed to a contract extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers last month.

The Red Sox and Tigers must now be the aggressors if talks are going to heat up and they must be willing to go well beyond what Bailey just received from the Reds. 

By allowing Lester and Scherzer to become free agents next November, the Red Sox and Tigers will risk the price rising even higher following a typical season from either pitcher and the bidding war likely to ensue with just two or three front-line starting pitchers available—Cleveland Indians right-hander Justin Masterson, another long-term extension candidate, would likely be third on the list. 

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The Detroit Tigers and pitching ace Max Scherzer have reportedly agreed on a one-year, $15.5 million deal that will bring the veteran back for a fifth straight season in the Motor City, according to CBSSports.com baseball writer Jon Heyman:

The Tigers then made things official: 

As Heyman points out, the one-year signing doesn’t mean the Tigers have given up on pursuing a long-term deal for Scherzer:

The 29-year-old right-hander has spent the past four seasons in Detroit, putting up dominant numbers during the regular season and backing up his play with impressive playoff performances in each of the past three years.

Securing Scherzer, who went 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA en route to earning the American League Cy Young Award in 2013, for the upcoming 2014 season means the Tigers will once again begin the year as a favorite to reach the World Series.

After winning the AL Cy Young Award last fall, Scherzer commented on his contract situation and admitted that he’d prefer to stick around, per USA Today‘s Jorge L. Ortiz:

I am open (to an extension). I love it here in Detroit. We’ve got a team that’s capable of winning every single year right now. Who wouldn’t want to be a part of that? I’m all about trying to win a World Series. I realize I have a good situation here in Detroit. But it also takes two to dance.

In the process of turning in a career year in 2013 that saw him lead all of MLB in wins, Scherzer earned his first-ever All-Star nod and now enters his seventh season in the majors with mighty expectations to fulfill.

It’s unknown whether the Tigers have enough firepower to finally get over the hump in 2014, but signing Scherzer ensures that Detroit will bring back another key piece to a stellar pitching staff that ranked tops in the majors in quality starts last season with 108.

The Atlanta Braves were the only other team with at least 100.

Follow Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Patrick Clarke on Twitter. 

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Max Scherzer is on the verge of winning the American League Cy Young Award. Is he also on the verge of being traded?

“On the verge” might be a bit strong, given that a top-of-the-rotation arm like Scherzer—the favorite to be named the Junior Circuit’s top pitcher for the 2013 season on Wednesday—isn’t exactly the type of asset that a team with World Series aspirations like the Detroit Tigers just up and deals.

Then again, the team has made it known that it’s listening to offers for the 29-year-old, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. That’s attributable to the right-hander’s looming free agency after 2014. So if the Tigers don’t think they can ink Scherzer long-term, a trade could make sense.

The other reason general manager Dave Dombrowski might be up for moving Scherzer is to deal from a strength (i.e., the rotation) to bring back a return that would help the Tigers in their multiple areas of need, namely second base, outfield, catcher and bullpen.

Realize, though, that the Tigers are in win-now mode, coming off three straight AL Central crowns and having been on the doorstep of a championship the past couple years. In other words, if—and it’s still a big if—they’re going to move Scherzer, it’s probably not going to happen for two or three prospects who are a year or two away. They’re more likely to want players who can bolster their 25-man roster right away in 2014 and make the club younger and cheaper.

The cost to acquire will be rather high given Scherzer‘s incredible performance. After all, we’re talking about a guy who posted a 2.90 ERA and AL-leading 0.97 WHIP with 10.1 K/9 while also winning 21 games.

Money, though, could be a potential hurdle here, as Scherzer‘s salary is estimated to double from the $6.725 he earned in 2013 to somewhere in the range of $13-14 million in his final go-round at arbitration. And of course, the fact that his agent is Scott Boras, whose clients generally don’t sign extensions before hitting the open market, will only further complicate matters, as any interested parties will be hesitant to give up too much for only one year.

As such, two criteria seem like requirements when it comes to determining which clubs might fit the bill as a trade partner: First, the teams must be contenders ready to make a World Series push next year; and second, there should also be a need for a front-of-the-rotation arm to lead or enhance a staff.

Of course, it wouldn’t hurt for inquiring teams to have the funds to at least be able to offer Scherzer a nine-figure extension, if a deal is contingent upon such a pact.

Although it may seem unlikely that Scherzer will be traded, primarily because he’s been a key part of the Tigers’ success the past few seasons and should be again next year, a freshly minted Cy Young winner was, in fact, swapped just last offseason.

Not quite a year ago, the New York Mets sent R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays last December for a package of prospects, including catcher Travis d’Arnaud and right-hander Noah Syndergaard.

There’s a key difference with Scherzer, though: The Tigers are on the opposite end of the competition cycle from the rebuilding Mets.

Whether Scherzer will prove to be the latest ace on the move remains to be seen, but given all of the above circumstances and factors, here’s a batch of teams who are most likely to pursue him—and have the means to get a deal done.

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The starting rotation of the Detroit Tigers is one of the best in baseball. It had the most wins (76), the lowest ERA (3.44) and the least homers allowed in the American League last season while leading the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts.

And Cy Young Award candidate Max Scherzer, who the Tigers are reportedly willing to trade in the right deal this offseason, was probably the biggest reason why. 

Take him out of the equation, and the Tigers are left with a gaping hole in their rotation. Replacing his 23 wins (including two in the playoffs), 2.90 ERA and 16 starts (including two in the playoffs) of at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs allowed is no easy task.

In fact, it’s probably impossible unless they were able to sign free agent Ervin Santana, who also had 14 regular-season starts of at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs allowed. And even that wouldn’t be the same because Santana doesn’t strike out nearly as many hitters as Scherzer.

Maybe Masahiro Tanaka, who’s expected to be posted from the Japanese League later this offseason, is capable of picking up the slack. Maybe not is more likely. Pitchers like that are few and far between, and the price would be outrageous for a guy who might be able to fill Scherzer‘s shoes. 

But that’s exactly why the Tigers are willing to shop the 29-year-old Scherzer a year before he’s eligible for free agency. Unless the Tampa Bay Rays trade David Price, it’s likely that he’d be the best starting pitcher acquisition of the offseason, and the return could be huge.

If they don’t feel that a contract extension can be worked out, it wouldn’t hurt to at least find out what one season of his services would bring them back in a trade. 

When rumors first surfaced last month after Danny Knobler of CBS Sports first reported a Scherzer trade as having a “real chance,” I named five potential suitors and the trade package it would take for each team to acquire him.  

Each package contained a very good prospect or two and, in most cases, a pitcher who could help the big league club in 2014. For an organization with a weak farm system and needs in the bullpen, these types of deals would need to be explored.

Pulling the trigger on one of those types of deals, however, could be disastrous for a team that has averaged 92 regular-season wins and has reached the ALCS in three consecutive seasons.

Even if it’s a move that can be viewed as necessary for the future success of the organization, taking a major step back during any season in which stars Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander are still in the prime of their careers could be viewed as a lost opportunity. 

Lefty Drew Smyly (pictured), who is next in line for a rotation spot in Detroit, is deserving of a shot. And it wouldn’t be a surprise if he were much better than the average No. 5 starter. The problem is how it affects the rotation as a whole.

Verlander, as he proved late in the season and throughout the playoffs, is still one of the best pitchers around and one of a few true “aces” in the game. Anibal Sanchez, whose spectacular season (14-8, 2.57 ERA, 2.7 walk rate, 10.0 strikeout rate) was overshadowed by Scherzer‘s win total, would follow him in the rotation. He’s a very capable No. 2, especially if 2013 wasn’t a fluke. But he may have been the best No. 3 in baseball. 

Doug Fister is in the same boat. One of the best No. 4 starters in baseball but only pretty good as a No. 3. It’s also hard to complain about having Rick Porcello as your fifth starter. But a guy with a career 4.51 ERA as the No. 4 starter doesn’t speak well for the overall state of the rotation. 

Of course, it’s possible for general manager Dave Dombrowski to sign one of the second-tier free-agent starters, such as Dan Haren or Bartolo Colon, to preserve the little rotation depth the Tigers have and keep Smyly in the pen for now. The drop-off wouldn’t be as severe, and he could look to upgrade in another area of the roster to try to make up for the rotation downgrade. 

The risk in heading into the season without the strength of the team intact, however, is much greater than in years past.

In 2012, the Tigers allowed much less talented teams in the division to hang around longer than necessary before pulling away late in the season. This year, the competition from the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals was heated, and Detroit barely held on to edge out Cleveland for the division title. 

Things won’t get any easier in 2014, as the young core of talent on those same two teams should continue to get better and the other two division opponents, the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins, have lots of payroll space and are each capable of making a splash this winter. 

It’s difficult to stay on top as the Tigers have done for the past three seasons. The offseason planning of their rivals likely revolves around what they need to do to knock the champions off the top. It can also be difficult to get back on top after you’ve fallen—the Tigers went 24 years (1987-2010) without winning the division. 

With or without Scherzer, there’s a possibility that they aren’t the last team standing in their division at season’s end.

But with the team’s window to win a World Series championship with their current high-paid stars likely closing sometime in the next few seasons—lack of minor league talent to replace aging veterans has a tendency to do that—they must take the win-now approach even if it means losing Scherzer for nothing more than a draft pick next offseason.

Dombrowski could be tempted by the offers, but he’ll pass on each and every one. Why? Because he knows that missing out on the playoffs in 2014 because the starting rotation wasn’t quite strong enough could haunt the organization for years. And he doesn’t want to be the cause of that.

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Starting pitching is the most precious commodity in Major League Baseball. Finding consistent dominance on the mound is something all 30 teams want but so few are able to get because there aren’t that many great arms available. 

Among the field of candidates for the 2013 Cy Young awards listed by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, to be handed out Wednesday, there are two standouts who should walk away with hardware. 

Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw and Detroit Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer are the overwhelming favorites, and the voting will likely reflect that. 

None of that is meant to denigrate the work of the other four finalists, but their resumes fall short Kershaw and Scherzer‘s.

Rather than continue to wax poetic about the job they did without showing you, here’s what the numbers say about the aces for the Dodgers and Tigers. 

Kershaw vs. The Field

It sounds strange to say given that he led the NL in ERA and WHIP in 2011 and 2012, but Kershaw‘s ascent to the throne of best pitcher in baseball didn’t take full effect until this season, when Justin Verlander relinquished the crown. 

It also didn’t hurt that Kershaw, as great as he has been throughout his career, had his best year as a professional in 2013. He led or tied for the league lead in ERA (1.83), shutouts (two), strikeouts (232), WHIP (0.915) and ERA+ (194). 

Here’s how Kershaw‘s season stats compare to Miami’s Jose Fernandez and St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright: 

By those numbers, you would have to combine different parts of Wainwright’s and Fernandez’s season to match what Kershaw did by himself. 

The most telling stat in that group is WHIP. Admittedly, it’s a flawed stat to judge a pitcher by because it does factor in defense, but it’s a good jumping-off point for how superior Kershaw was. 

We saw what Fernandez and Wainwright were able to do this year, especially when it comes to limiting the number of baserunners per inning. Yet Kershaw dwarfs what they were able to do, having the lowest WHIP by a starting pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2004 (0.8996). 

Now I want to dive deeper into advanced metrics, which appears to make the race close, but I will explain afterward why Kershaw‘s numbers here actually make him a stronger candidate. 

As much as I like expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP), which favors Wainwright, it actually punishes Kershaw more than the other two candidates because it normalizes the home run rate. 

Kershaw had the second-lowest home run rate in 2013 at 0.42 per nine innings, trailing only New York’s Matt Harvey (0.35). While that number may not be sustainable in future years, we can’t punish a pitcher for his single-season dominance. 

Fernandez topped Kershaw in opponents’ runs scored per nine innings pitched (RA9opp), but the margin is so small that Kershaw‘s significant edge in innings pitched (63.1) makes up the difference. 

Another factor that puts Kershaw over the top is his performance relative to number of batters faced. 

Kershaw faced 908 hitters in 2013; Wainwright led the NL with 956 batters faced, while Fernandez’s total was well behind at 681. 

Of the 908 hitters Kershaw faced, 221 (24.3 percent) reached base. That means Kershaw got rid of 687 opponents, with 232 coming via strikeout (25.5 percent). 

Wainwright allowed more hits (223, most in the NL) to his opponents than Kershaw let reach base. All told, the Cardinals’ ace allowed 266 opponents (27.8 percent) to reach base and struck out 219 (22.9 percent). 

Fernandez allowed 179 opponents (26.3 percent) to reach base with 187 strikeouts (27.5 percent). 

No NL pitcher in 2013 was better at his job than Kershaw. All the numbers support it. He’s widely regarded as the best pitcher in the sport and should be rewarded with his second Cy Young award. 

Scherzer vs. The Field

Unlike the NL race, where things are set up for Clayton Kershaw to destroy the field, the AL race is much closer than you might think. The pitcher I would have had in the No. 1 spot (Felix Hernandez) didn’t even make the final cut. 

Given Max Scherzer‘s incredible performance, it’s going to take a miracle for him not to win the Cy Young award, though there is a strong, valid argument for Hisashi Iwakuma. 

Scherzer‘s win-loss record should have nothing to do with winning this award, though that will be the narrative when he does. A lot of things have to happen for a pitcher to go 21-3, including great run support and luck. 

The Tigers scored 5.59 runs per game in Scherzer‘s starts, third best in baseball. He won or got a no-decision in three games when he allowed four or more earned runs. 

That’s the last you will hear about wins and losses in the Cy Young race from me. Let’s now focus on things that pitchers have more control over. 

While I don’t use WAR as a be-all, end-all stat, it does a great deal to inform what a player did. In this case, Scherzer‘s total is so much greater than Yu Darvish or Iwakuma‘s that you can see how much better/more valuable he was. 

Darvish had the advantage of missing bats at an alarming rate, 11.89 strikeouts per nine innings, but he also had a worse home run rate (1.12 per nine innings) and significantly higher walk rate (3.43 per nine innings) than his opponents. 

There is also the matter of competition. Darvish faced the Astros five times this year, which is an easy way to pad your strikeout stats. He did lead the league with 12 double-digit strikeout games, though his six starts of less than six innings were more than Iwakuma (five) and Scherzer (four). 

Iwakuma finished outside the top 10 of American League pitchers in fWAR. He was No. 12, behind Boston Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester. His case is interesting because it’s largely built around innings pitched, which leads the AL Cy Young field but not by a wide enough margin to matter, and Seattle’s porous defense. 

The Mariners were, by defensive runs saved (minus-99) and UZR (minus-73.0), the worst defensive team in the American League by a significant margin. Yet Iwakuma was able to overcome that by striking out a solid 7.6 hitters per nine innings and limiting walks (1.7 per nine innings). 

Going by competition, Iwakuma had the toughest task of the three AL Cy Young finalists. He made 20 starts against teams that finished among the top 10 in runs scored; Darvish made 13 starts against those teams, while Scherzer made just 12. 

In those games, Scherzer had 90 strikeouts and 27 earned runs allowed (3.02 ERA) in 80.1 innings. Iwakuma recorded 104 strikeouts and allowed 43 earned runs (3.01 ERA) in 128.2 innings. 

Even with Iwakuma‘s larger sample size, he wasn’t as dominant in those games as Scherzer. The Tigers starter had a superior strikeout rate, despite an ERA just a pinch above Seattle’s hurler. 

Going by ERA+, Scherzer and Darvish (both at 145, tied for second in the AL) were the superior pitchers; Iwakuma was a distant sixth at 138. 

Scherzer also blew Darvish and Iwakuma out of the water when it comes to fielding independent ERA. 

There are arguments to be made for all three finalists, though Darvish has the weakest of the bunch. Iwakuma has the advantage of taking on a tougher schedule, but his dominance overall was less impressive because it relied more on the defense behind him even though it wasn’t a good group. 

Scherzer‘s schedule wasn’t as top-heavy as Iwakuma‘s, not to mention eight starts made against the White Sox and Twins. But when Scherzer did face top offensive teams, he dominated more than the other finalists did.

The voting won’t be close because Scherzer‘s record will weigh heavily with a lot of voters, but there is also nothing substantial in favor of Iwakuma or Darvish to push them ahead of the Tigers right-hander. 

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. 

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After a dramatic two-game split in Boston, the Detroit Tigers return home for a crucial Game 3 in the first of three consecutive games to be played at Comerica Park.

Despite a late-game collapse in which Detroit allowed five Boston runs over the final two innings of Sunday’s Game 2 loss, a combined one-hitter from Tigers’ pitchers in Game 1 gives Detroit a theoretical chance to win the ALCS at home.

Before looking too far ahead, here are four keys for the Tigers in Tuesday’s Game 3:

1. Start strong

Detroit’s starting pitchers have been outstanding during the playoffs, and especially so far in the ALCS. Game 1 and 2 starters Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer combined for 13 scoreless innings, surrendering only two hits while striking out 25 Boston batters.

Game 3 starter Justin Verlander pitched 15 scoreless innings against Oakland in the ALDS, allowing six hits and recording 21 strikeouts in two starts. And no, those numbers don’t come from a video game.

Verlander pitched just once against the Red Sox during the regular season, allowing four runs and seven hits in only five innings pitched on June 23. The Tigers Game 3 starter admitted that despite getting roughed up earlier in the season, his game plan against the top-ranked Red Sox lineup hasn’t changed:

“I think the only way you combat that is be aggressive,” Verlander said in a press conference on Monday. “Throw a lot of strikes and pound the strike zone.”

2. Dirks’ Day 

The starting left fielder for most of the regular season, Andy Dirks will make his first start of the postseason on Tuesday, batting ninth in Jim Leyland’s lineup.

Dirks batted .256 in 131 games during the regular season with 9 home runs and 37 RBIs, but is only 3-for-26 (.115) since September 21. Dirks has the potential to provide a noticeable upgrade at the plate from struggling utilityman Don Kelly, who started Game 2 in left field and is 0-for-4 in the ALCS.

3. Contain Boston’s 1-4 hitters

Not surprisingly, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz are huge factors in Major League Baseball’s top scoring offense. But the high percentage of the Red Sox offense coming from their 1-4 hitters is alarming.

Four of Boston’s seven hits on Sunday came from the first four, and five of Boston’s six runs were driven in by Pedroia and Ortiz. Ellsbury, Victorino and Ortiz lead the Red Sox in batting average—batting .375, .333, and .300, respectively—while Pedroia is fifth, batting .261.

The four have scored 19 of the team’s 32 runs during the playoffs and have recorded 18 of 28 RBIs. If Verlander has success against Boston’s first four, the Red Sox will have to rely on Jarrod Saltalamacchia for offense, and the slumping bats of Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Will Middlebrooks, and Mike Napoli.

4. Fix the bullpen

Despite an impressive performance in Game 1, the Tigers bullpen struggled mightily in Game 2, allowing all six Boston runs and ruining a career outing for Scherzer. Tigers relievers Al Alburquerque, Drew Smyly and Joaquin Benoit have postseason ERAs of 9.00, 6.75 and 5.79, respectively.

That should explain everything.

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Facing elimination in Game 4 of the ALDS with the Oakland Athletics, the Detroit Tigers managed to pull out an 8-6 victory on Tuesday night, as they’ll send the series back to Oakland for a decisive Game 5 on Thursday.

Doug Fister got the start for Detroit, and he gave the Tigers six solid innings, allowing seven hits and three runs, and left the game with things knotted up at 3-3.

With the season on the line, Detroit skipper Jim Leyland opted to go with his ace and likely Game 5 starter Max Scherzer to start the seventh inning, putting the season in the hands of the AL Cy Young favorite.

Leyland spoke before the game about the idea of potentially using Scherzer if the team was ahead for the seventh and eighth innings, and he pulled the trigger on that plan with the score tied up.

It’s no surprise Leyland put the game in his hands, as Scherzer was an absolute stud during the regular season, finishing the year with a record of 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts in 214.1 innings of work.

He drew the Game 1 start, and was virtually unhittable, allowing three hits and striking out 11 in seven innings of work, with the lone blemish being a two-run homer to Yoenis Cespedes in the seventh inning, as the Tigers jumped out to a 1-0 series lead.

Scherzer made his first relief appearance since the 2011 ALDS against the New York Yankees, when he also relieved Fister. He worked 1.1 innings in that one and allowed two hits and one run but recorded a hold.

Things got off to an inauspicious start for Scherzer on Tuesday, as he allowed a lead-off single to catcher Stephen Vogt, who was then bunted over to second by Eric Sogard.

The red-hot Coco Crisp came up next, and promptly delivered an RBI single to put the A’s up 4-3, before Scherzer retired the final two hitters to get out of the inning. The Tigers then struck for two runs of their own in the bottom of the seventh to regain the lead.

With setup man Drew Smyly warming in the bullpen, Leyland opted to go with Scherzer for a second inning, and he got into immediate trouble once again.

A leadoff walk to Brandon Moss was followed by a double from Yoenis Cespedes. Seth Smith was then intentionally walked to load the bases with nobody out.

Throwing harder than he usually does as a starter, Scherzer was mixing in some solid changeups with his high-90s fastballs, and he got Josh Reddick to chase a 3-2 changeup down and in for the first out of the inning.

He followed that up with a strikeout of Vogt, before getting pinch-hitter Alberto Callaspo to line out to center field for the final out of the inning. A fired up Scherzer greeted his teammates in the dugout.

A shaky ninth inning from closer Joaquin Benoit finished things off, as a heavily-favored Tigers team now heads back to Oakland looking to keep their World Series hopes alive.

Though they by no means ran away with the AL Central in the regular season, the Tigers entered the playoffs looking like a team built to win it all.

With a deep pitching staff that has Scherzer, AL ERA leader Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander and Fister and an offense that ranked among the best in the game even with a hobbled Miguel Cabrera, most picked the Tigers to emerge from this ALDS matchup and meet the Red Sox for a run at their second straight AL pennant.

Using Scherzer in Game 4 certainly changes the Game 5 outlook, as it will likely be Verlander getting the starting nod. He threw a gem of his own in Game 2, allowing just four hits and fanning 11 in seven shutout innings, and that no doubt contributed to Leyland‘s decision to use Scherzer in Game 4.

Putting the ball in the hands of your best pitcher makes sense with your back against the wall facing elimination, and while Scherzer no doubt took a few years off the lives of a number of Tigers fans, his eighth inning tightrope act already goes down as one of the biggest moments of the 2013 postseason.

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Max Scherzer earned it.

That’s what Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland indicated when he tabbed Scherzer to start Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Oakland A’s. The exact phrase he used, as reported by George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press, was that it was “hard to argue” with Scherzer being the best man for the job.

It’s even harder to argue now. 

Scherzer took the ball in front of 48,401 hostile fans at O.co Coliseum on Friday night and had them quietly twiddling their thumbs for much of the evening. He allowed only two earned runs on three hits and two walks. And ultimately, he set new postseason career highs for innings pitched (seven) and strikeouts (11) to lead the Tigers to a hard-fought 3-2 victory and a 1-0 series lead.

There was some debate as to whether Scherzer was the right choice to start Game 1. Not a lot of it, mind you, but apparently enough for an ESPN poll. If there was enough debate for one of those, there was surely enough for some water-cooler chatter elsewhere. 

Leyland could have gone with old standby Justin Verlander, which was the no-brainer choice last year when he was the reigning AL Cy Young and MVP. And all he did in the 2012 ALDS was limit the A’s to one run in 16 innings over two starts, the latter of which was a series-clinching shutout on the road in Game 5.

Or Leyland could have gone with Anibal Sanchez, the 2013 American League ERA champion. Heck, even ground-ball merchant Doug Fister would have been a solid choice. Barring notorious BABIP magnet Rick Porcello, Leyland could have rationalized any choice he made.

But Leyland didn’t make any choice. He made the right choice.

Scherzer made one bad pitch all night on Friday: a fastball to Yoenis Cespedes in the seventh inning that caught too much of the plate. Cespedes promptly sent the pitch into orbit for a two-run homer that narrowed Detroit’s lead to 3-2 and woke the crowd up something fierce.

What seemed to be the turning of the tide, however, was soon quelled by Scherzer’s hand. He followed Cespedes’ home run by retiring the next three batters in a row, the last a swinging strikeout of Daric Barton.

For Scherzer, that was the cap on a start that came off as feeling, well, typical. Aside from Cespedes’ moonshot, Scherzer was able to do his usual Max Scherzer thing.

After the game, he indicated that was more or less the whole idea.

“It was the same as always,” said Scherzer when asked about his mindset heading into Game 1. “I don’t get caught up in the hoopla. I don’t worry about where I’m pitching or if I’m pitching Game 1 or Game 5. It doesn’t matter.”

But then he hinted there might have been a little extra something going on in his head: “When you’re facing a postseason team like the A’s, you have to bring your A-game.”

The A’s certainly weren’t a team to be taken lightly. The club as a whole cut down on the strikeout habit that served as its Achilles’ heel in 2012, going from placing third in MLB in strikeout percentage to placing 20th. And like it did last year, Oakland’s offense exploded in the second half, leading the majors in home runs and placing behind only the Boston Red Sox in runs scored.

Scherzer was one of the more notable dragons slain by Oakland’s offense in the second half. When the A’s faced the right-hander in late August, they touched him up for six runs (five earned) in only five innings. By Game Score’s reckoning, it was Scherzer’s worst start of the season.

Scherzer said after the game that his rough outing against the A’s in August didn’t lead to any real adjustments ahead of Game 1’s performance. For him, he just did his usual thing.

“Tonight I just thought I came out there with a good fastball and good changeup,” said the 29-year-old right-hander, “and I was able to mix in some curveballs to the lefties to help slow them down. I made some big pitches with the curveball in some situations to help generate some outs.”

Oakland A’s manager Bob Melvin singled out the fastball as a notable factor.

“He’s always tough,” said Melvin, adding: “If you don’t see him that often, his fastball gets on you a bit quicker because of how his velocity plays. He has such good extension.”

Concerning Friday night, however, Melvin doesn’t know the half of it.

Per Brooks Baseball, Scherzer’s heater was sitting at 94.9 miles per hour and got as high as 99.2 at one point. He was also getting an average of 8.64 inches of horizontal break on it.

His season averages in those two departments: 93.96 miles per hour and 7.88 inches. The latter is impressive enough, as no right-hander who threw as many as 500 four-seamers generated as much horizontal movement as Scherzer.

So with even more movement and velocity in Game 1, Scherzer’s already fantastic fastball was more fantastic.

Scherzer’s changeup, meanwhile, did its job. While his overpowering fastball ended up accounting for over half of his 20 swinging strikes, the changeup took care of the other half. At around 85.3 miles per hour, it was coming in roughly 10 miles per hour slower than his hard stuff on Friday night, with its typical nasty movement to boot. Most of the swings against it were of the helpless variety.

As for the curveball, it’s actually one of Scherzer’s newer weapons, one that he used almost exclusively against left-handed batters in 2013 after giving it a tryout toward the end of 2012. It proved to be a lefty killer, as they only hit .194 against it with two extra-base hits.

And Scherzer is right about the curve getting him some outs against the A’s in Game 1. He didn’t get any whiffs on the curves he threw, but both of the curves that were put in play on Friday night went for outs.

Scherzer credited two other things for his success in Game 1.

“I thought I did a good job of attacking the zone and throwing first-pitch strikes—something I always pride myself in—and was able to get deep into the game,” he said.

Scherzer threw 78 of his 118 pitches for strikes. That’s 66 percent, a mirror image of his regular-season rate of…66 percent.

As for first-pitch strikes, Scherzer threw 18 of those to the 26 batters he faced. That’s 69.2 percent, a rate slightly higher than his regular-season rate of 64 percent. Which, for the record, was a new career high.

Add it all up, and you get another exclamation mark in a season that’s been full of them for Scherzer. The regular season that saw him finish with a 21-3 record was no accident. Wins are fluky, but posting a 2.90 ERA with a 10.1 K/9 and a league-best 0.97 WHIP is as good a way as any to keep ’em coming. The best way to a great record is through great pitching.

And to that extent, not even one of the guys who might have started Game 1 could deny Scherzer’s claim to the honor.

“Max is the best pitcher in the American League,” said Verlander before Game 1 when asked if he was disappointed that he wasn’t chosen to start. “The only reason this is being brought up is because of what I’ve done over the last couple of years. Like I said, Max without a doubt is the best pitcher in the American League, and he absolutely earned this.”

He sure did, and he sure made the most of it. 

And if Verlander, Sanchez and Fister follow Scherzer’s lead, he’s likely not going to be done making the most of Game 1s.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Quotes obtained firsthand.

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Max Scherzer wasn’t dominant on Friday night, but 12 runs of support from the Detroit Tigers was more than enough to secure his MLB-leading 20th win of the season as Detroit topped the Chicago White Sox 12-3. The right-hander failed in his four previous attempts at the milestone.

Although individual win-loss record won’t seriously impact AL Cy Young Award voting, Scherzer’s latest quality start—6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K—certainly bolsters his case.

The list of legitimate candidates for the award in the Amercan League is rather short in 2013.

Clay Buchholz and David Price—and to lesser extents, Bartolo Colon, Felix Hernandez, Anibal Sanchez and Jered Weaver—have had their seasons affected by injury. Their performances when healthy have been excellent, yet not quite enough to compensate for reduced workloads, or in the case of Hernandez, stats that have been hurt to do an injury down the stretch. Genuine workhorses like Hiroki Kuroda and James Shields couldn’t duplicate their exceptional first halves. Hisashi Iwakuma’s case suffers from a lack of strikeouts and complete-game efforts.

That leaves us with a three-man race between Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers, Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox and Scherzer.

Here’s how their season stats compare:

These numbers don’t establish a clear front-runner, and neither do sabermetrics. FanGraphs values Scherzer at a significantly higher WAR than either Darvish or Sale, but Baseball-Reference.com’s version of the stat likes Chicago’s southpaw much better than the others.

Some of the sportswriters who will be voting on the award won’t like the fact that Darvish spent a brief stint on the disabled list. On the other hand, those same dissenters may be wooed by his otherworldly ability to generate swings-and-misses.

Team success can affect voting patterns. In such cases, pitchers in competitive situations get more support.

The Tigers sit comfortably atop the AL Central, a few victories away from clinching a playoff berth, while the White Sox rot in the division’s cellar and the Rangers gradually collapse. Advantage Scherzer.

Even so, all indications are that this debate will go down to the wire. Scherzer has one remaining start against the Minnesota Twins, and only an extraordinary effort can make him a lock for major award recognition.

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The 2013 Detroit Tigers are a month away from postseason baseball, an excellent bet to repeat as American League champions and a marquee attraction for Major League Baseball’s broadcasting plan down the stretch of the season.

Part of that allure: Star power.

From Justin Verlander to Prince Fielder to Torii Hunter, the current version of the Detroit Tigers are one of the most recognizable groups in recent memory.

When the 2013 season awards are rolled out in early November, they might add some hardware, along with a possible World Series title, to their showcase.

For the first time in the history of the sport, a team could house the league MVP, Cy Young winner and Rookie of the Year. Before you scoff at the notion of the trifecta, consider the claims to the awards by Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer and Jose Iglesias, respectively.

First, of course, resides Miguel Cabrera atop the sport and the American League. While a very, very good argument can be made that Mike Trout is baseball’s best all-around player, Cabrera is a virtual lock for the league MVP.

Despite the unlikelihood of a Triple Crown repeat, Cabrera has been significantly better in 2013 than 2012. His OPS, OPS-plus, home run, RBI, and strikeout-to-walk numbers are all either superior or in line to surpass the MVP campaign of 2012. Despite the greatness of Mike Trout, it’s hard to imagine the same writers who voted Cabrera last season having a change of heart when he’s improved.

Furthermore, the notion of giving the award to a player on a winning team fits Cabrera again. While Mike Trout’s team is headed for another season without October baseball, Cabrera’s Tigers are on the path to the postseason.

On the mound, Scherzer has surpassed 2011 MVP/Cy Young winner Justin Verlander as the current ace of Jim Leyland’s staff. While his 19-1 record may hearken back to old-school Cy Young voting and archaic thinking, his peripheral numbers, or, in other words, the numbers that actually matter when valuing individual players, work in his favor as well.

With apologies to Yu Darvish and Chris Sale, the AL Cy Young battle looks to be a two-horse battle between Seattle‘s Felix Hernandez and Scherzer.

If Scherzer‘s gaudy win total (19 to 12) was all that separated him from the former Cy Young winner, the possibility of all three awards in the Motor City would be far-fetched. A quick look at the numbers shows a very close battle, with Detroit’s star earning the upper hand.

While Felix now leads in Fangraphs‘ WAR (5.8-5.4) and innings pitched (194.1-183.1), Scherzer is sporting a lower ERA (2.90-3.01) and a higher K/9 rate (9.87-9.26).

With Scherzer two starts behind (29-27), pitching Tuesday and Hernandez leaving Monday’s start with back cramps, according to MLB.com, there’s an excellent chance that Hernandez’s lead in total WAR and innings thrown won’t be there by the end of September.

Although wins and losses aren’t the deciding factor in Cy Young voting any longer, it’s hard to believe the voters won’t side with Scherzer if he leads or is tied in WAR, innings, ERA and K/9 along with a seven win advantage on their personal ledgers.

Lastly, the American League Rookie of the Year race is, well, dull.

Using Fangraphs‘ WAR, the top five this season pale in comparison to their famous National League counterparts: Cleveland‘s Yan Gomes, Kansas City‘s David Lough, Iglesias, Seattle’s Danny Farquhar and Tampa Bay‘s Wil Myers.

Meanwhile, the NL features this top five: Miami’s Jose Fernandez, Los Angeles’ Yasiel Puig, Colorado‘s Nolan Arenado, New York’s Juan Lagares and Los Angeles’ Hyun-jin Ryu.

When the Tigers traded for Igesias in July, they were proactively filling a hole left by the impending Jhonny Peralta suspension. Now, through the merits of outstanding defense, an above-average OPS-plus and a lackluster rookie class, they might have the American League Rookie of the Year on their hands.

The 2013 Detroit Tigers are on the path to becoming the most decorated team in baseball history.

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