Kuzul

Max Scherzer went 15-9 last year with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He collected 174 strikeouts. He has the ability to put up better numbers this year, but can he be elite?

Prior to last year, the only time Scherzer’s ERA had been above 4.00 in his professional career was 2009 for the Diamondbacks.

Part of the problem came in the form of the longball, as he yielded a career-high 29 deep shots. Most of the damage came on the road as he allowed 11 home runs in 18 home starts and 18 home runs in 15 road starts. His ERA (3.80 at home, 5.23 on the road) was affected by that fact.

Interestingly enough, he pitched better in the second half (4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .263 BAA) than the first half (4.69, 1.44, .279), but had more success in the first half (10-4 compared to 5-5).

Scherzer was 8-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 16 starts against the AL Central. On paper the Indians, Royals, Twins and White Sox do not provide an intimidating presence, and continued success remains a strong likelihood.

Scherzer has a Mock Draft Central ADP of 147, which puts him in the 13th round of 12-team drafts. He’s the 43rd pitcher to come off the board, making him a fourth starting pitcher.

He needs to improve his strikeout percentage, which was a career-low 20.9 percent last year and keep more balls in the yard. I don’t think he’ll be an elite starting pitching option, but he is a top-25 option.

He starts off against Boston—who bombed him for seven runs in two innings last year—so temper your expectations early on, but he should be a solid SP3 with SP2 upside.

Also check out:

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
Can Matt Wieters Continue to Improve?
Can Chris Young Blow Up in 2012?
Can Derek Jeter Still Get It Done?
Will Joe Mauer Shed the Joey Singles Moniker?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The December day the Detroit Tigers dealt Curtis Granderson to New York Yankees was a gloomy, winter day in Detroit matching the spirits of the Tigers fans.

Gone was a great ambassador for the Tigers, Detroit and baseball in general and few of the Old English D faithful wanted to see him gone.

A year and a half later, I doubt there is any Detroiter not in the same realm of existence as Charlie Sheen that wouldn’t do that trade again.

The Tigers acquired a leadoff hitter that Granderson never could be (Austin Jackson), a wily left-hander who’s transitioning to the rotation (Phil Coke), a young hurler expected to be the late-inning left-handed reliever (Daniel Schlereth) and, most importantly, right-handed starter Max Scherzer.

Scherzer did nothing to contribute to the second-half collapse by the Tigers last year.  After a terrible start to the season, Scherzer fixed his mechanics in Toledo and had a 2.46 ERA while striking out 158 in 153.2 innings after his recall to Detroit.

Despite an ERA close to seven for over a month of the season, Scherzer finished the season 13th in the AL with a 3.5 ERA.  This is the year for Scherzer to truly shine and be in the mix for an All-Star spot.

Tigers fans may not realize what they got when their team acquired Scherzer.  He was a top-level prospect and early draft pick who showed flashes in the majors before being acquired.  He’s got great stuff and is extremely intelligent and uses it to his advantage.  Maybe most importantly, he has the ability to be an ace on a team that already has an ace.

Scherzer was drafted 11th overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks and in 2008 was briefly rated as the top prospect in the minors by Baseball America when with the Diamondbacks. 

He struck out seven batters in his first appearance (in relief!) in 2008 and posted a sub-3.5 ERA until his last three starts of 2009.

He has basically pitched two bad months of baseball in his career and since they were consecutive baseball months (September of 2009 and April of 2010).  It appears to be that he momentarily regressed in his career and has straightened himself out.

Scherzer is a power pitcher but also has a good slider and changeup.  His fastball can hit mid-90s and his changeup is mid-80s, an optimal difference in speed as to confuse hitters. 

He’s also extremely intelligent (a 35 on his ACT?!?  He should have pitched for Harvard, not Missouri) and uses statistical analysis to his advantage. 

Based on the theory that he can’t control the percentage of fly balls that are hit for home runs, he started attacking the bottom of the strike zone to limit the number of fly balls that are hit off of him. 

His starts this spring have shown he’s inducing more ground balls and this statistical approach shows he’s a smart pitcher who’s always trying to improve himself.  Because of this, I like his chances to continue to improve.

Finally, Scherzer has the benefit of pitching behind a top-tier ace in Justin Verlander.  Even though he’ll be counted on heavily, Scherzer won’t have the pressure to carry the staff that Verlander will have on him.

Although they’re both power pitchers, Verlander and Scherzer are different types of pitchers.  Verlander’s style is more overpowering (with a wicked curveball) so there’s not a concern of hitters adapting to Scherzer after he follows Verlander in the rotation.

Max Scherzer isn’t a household name and not many Tiger fans were excited when the team traded for him.  I predict that those who aren’t excited about him now, will be when he pushes for an All-Star spot this July.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The goal for every fantasy manager is to find the proverbial diamond in the rough, a player who provides early round production despite being taken in the latter part of the draft. These players are not easy to find due to the unpredictable nature of the sport, however it is important to use some late round picks on possible breakout players to help fortify your lineup. 

One possible breakout player that we are tracking for 2011 is Rick Porcello, a third year starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers. Drafted 27th overall in the 2007 amateur draft, Porcello needed only one year in the minors to develop his craft before becoming a full time starter for the Tigers in 2009. 

In his first full year as a starter, Porcello was third in AL rookie of the year voting with a 14-9 record and 3.96 ERA. He started 31 games for Detroit, averaging a respectable 4.7 k’s per nine innings while walking an average of 1.71 batters per outing. After his strong start he followed up his rookie year with a disappointing sophomore campaign, posting an unimpressive 10-12 record with an ERA of nearly five, with an opposing batting average of .288.  

Although he had a poor 2010 season, Porcello is a young talent who pitches in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the AL. He has a potent offense to provide ample run support that will make him a lock to win 10 games. 

He does have a few areas of needed improvement, as he gives up almost 10 hits per nine innings, resulting in a fairly high WHIP for a starter at 1.38. In addition, his strikeout total is not as high as it should be for a pitcher with his cache of pitches. I predict that as he gets older and more confident in his stuff, he will be able to increase his strikeout total to over 100 K’s per season.  

I anticipate that Porcello will fail to crack the top 30 pitchers in mixed leagues, making him a late round pick if he is drafted at all.  Most owners will shy away from him due to his lackluster 2010 stats, yet he is well worth a final pick for those in deeper leagues. I would not be surprised if he posts a 15-10 record with a mid three ERA and around 100 K’s this season.

This article was originally published on www.kramericasports.com, the home of free fantasy news, rankings, and advice.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The 2010 baseball season has come and gone.  To those who won your fantasy leagues, congratulations.  And to those who did not win, well, there’s always next year, right?

If you are part of that latter group, you may want to pay close attention here.  The following slides should give you a leg up on the rest of the competition.  

Sleeper picks are always handy to have in your back pocket because you can pull them out at just about any time in your draft, leaving the rest of the league thinking “Aw man, I forgot about him!”  Sleeper picks can be comprised of players who were injured for the majority of the previous season, or just had an off year and will likely fall down the ranks of many fantasy leagues while looking for a bounce-back season.

So here are my 2011 Fantasy Baseball sleeper picks.

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As fantasy owners, we’ve all been burned.  We know what it feels like, and the stages of remorse that comes with it.

First, there’s denial. Denial that the player you coveted on draft day could really be this terrible, and that all your research and preparation was, well, dead wrong.

Then comes anger. Angst at said player for his exceeding levels of sucktitude.  You drafted him early enough where he still gets free passes after a slow start/poor outing, but there’s only so much a self respecting owner can take.

Finally, acceptance.

Ah, who am I kidding? The third stage is only more anger.  Followed by kicking that player to the free agent curb the same way Uncle Phil used to hoist DJ Jazzy Jeff onto his lawn in “Fresh Prince of Bel Aire.”

For those in roto leagues, these pitchers have not only burned a hole in your ERA, but one deep inside the carpals of your heart as well with their astounding rebound performances in the second half.  They’ve been dropped, forgotten about, left for dead, and left you with the open wounds of a team ERA that still hasn’t dipped blow 4.00.

It’s like going through a messy divorce with your wife, losing half your belongings and property in the process, only to find out just months later she’s met a charming Wall Street CEO with a mansion and fountain that spits Courvoisier.

And she’s pregnant.

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The season is long and right now it’s coming down to the wire for the top owners in their respective leagues.  These few players that are poised for either a huge week or a week you will want to avoid.  Pay attention, this could mean winning or not winning your league.

Start ‘Em:

Bill Hall | Boston Red Sox | 2.1% :  Take a walk on the wild side with this streaking player.  In his last 15 games Hall has crushed 4HRs with an OPS of .979.  In the next week he’ll be playing at both Yankee Stadium (Number one HR factor field) and the Ballpark in Arlington (Number two HR factor field), two of the best places to hit for power.

Chris Johnson | Houston Astros | 52.5% :  Chris Johnson has been hotter than the sun over the last two weeks.  While he probably wont be able to maintain these astounding numbers, he will most likely be able to post large numbers for the upcoming week.  Five of the six starters that Johnson will face are right handers.  Hitting righties is Johnson’s strength: .364 avg. 1.000 OPS in 107 ABs.  He also has 4HRs and 20RBIs against righties as well.

Jon Jay | St. Louis Cardinals | 7.8% :  Since his call-up, Jay has been a pure hitter.  He’s been raking ever since and has yet to stop.  In his 32 ABs this year against the Reds and Cubs Jay is hitting .406 with an OBP of .441.  Unfortunately, Jay is mainly a three-trick pony depending on how many categories your league has.  He can typically be expected to help in average, on-base, and runs.

Sit ‘Em:

Jay Bruce | Cincinnati Reds | 76% :  Bruce’s upcoming stretch against the Cardinals is going to be brutal for his owners.  Bruce’s career numbers against the Cardinals are: .199 avg, .259 OBP.  Not to mention he is currently on a long cold streak, hitting .188 over the last 30 games.

Jack Cust | Oakland A’s | 10% :  Jack Cust and the rest of the Oakland A’s have the worst schedule for power this upcoming week.  They will be playing at Safeco and Target Field next week.  These two fields are the third-worst and worst fields for homeruns.  Cust has also slowed down as of late, hitting .222 over the course of the last seven games.

Two-Start Pitchers To Use:

Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 86% :  Scherzer has been fairly dominant as of late.  Fantasy players should look for him to continue this dominance through his upcoming two-start week.  His first start comes against the Rays at home.  Scherzer is 6-2 at home this season and has a 2.90 ERA since the All-Star game.  Further supporting his start, the Rays are hitting .091 (2 for 22) against him for their career.  Scherzer has pitched against the White Sox twice this year with fairly strong numbers.  In the 14 innings against them Scherzer has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP and a K/9 ratio of nine.

Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 86.8% :  Santana has been on a skid as of late but he should be able to correct this with his upcoming two starts.  His first opponent is Kansas City then Toronto, both starts coming at home.  In a combined 33.1 innings this year against both teams Santana has 2.47 ERA and a 3-1 Win-Loss record.  In over 250 ABs, the players of both teams have a combined career batting average against Santana of .255.

Two-Start Pitchers To Avoid:

Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 77% :  Jurrjens has pitched with mixed success since coming back from the DL this season.  Now is not the time to take a chance on the two-start opportunity he faces this upcoming week.  His career against the Dodgers goes to the tune of a 4.03ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a .284 BAA.  Meanwhile, the heart of the Dodger’s order (Ethier, Kemp, Loney) have a collective career .360 avg. against Jurrjens.  Jurrjens has faced the Astros a limited amount and has not done much better.  His ever descending GB/FB rate should put his start in the Band Box of Minute Maid Park.

Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox | 40% :  Jackson’s two-start week is bound for disaster.  His first start is against Baltimore, at Baltimore.  Normally Baltimore is not much of a threat, but in three starts at Camden Yards Jackson has a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.  His next start against his old team the Tigers at his new home at U.S. Cellular Field.  At U.S. Cellular Field Jackson has a career 4.88 ERA 1.63 WHIP, and players are hitting .301 against him.  Fantasy owners have to also take into account that U.S. Cellular Field is the second-most homerun friendly park in existance.

Hind Sight:

For curiosity sake, here is how last week’s predictions held up through games as of 8-6:

Start ‘Em:

Jorge Cantu: One for four.  Played in only one game.

Josh Willingham: .357 avg. .438 OBP, 0R 0HR 1RBI.  The hitting is great, but there is more to fantasy than two categories.

Rajai Davis: .200 avg. .273 OBP, 3R 1HR 2RBI

Sit ‘Em:

David Wright: .063 avg. 1 for 16 as of print time.  Gotta pat myself on the back for this call.

Matt Kemp: .400 avg. .471 .OBP, 2R 1HR 3RBI.  His 5-5 game inflates last week’s line

Carl Crawford: .125 avg. .222 OBP, 2R 0HR 2RBI.  The Runs and RBI are decent, but Crawford should be held to higher standards.

Pitchers:

Travis Wood: 7IP 2H 0ER 1BB 4K

Mat Latos: 6IP 4H 2ER 2BB 6K

All Statistical Information was obtained through ESPN.com

Written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by James Bryce.  James is a Grad student at UCSD and is currently in his 13th year of fantasy sports.

Got a two-start pitching candidate for week 19?  
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix

____________________________________________________

Here are some more articles that will bring you success…

Fantasy Baseball 

The Numbers Game: Forecasting Week 18 in Fantasy Baseball  
Fantasy Baseball’s Top 50 Pitchers Post All-Star Break   
MLB Fantasy Baseball Second Half Ranks: Third Base

MLB Fantasy Baseball Post ASB Positional Ranks: Catcher

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

A quick look at Week 11’s Fantasy Baseball top performers and least owned players on the waiver wire. Justin Smoak is smoking the ball and Max Scherzer dominates twice. Can they really keep it up for another week?

Check out who’s a Must or a Bust.

SWINGERS

John Buck —40 percent of Y! Leagues
4 R / 3 HR / 8 RBI / .389 BA
With all the hype surrounding catchers this year, most owners seem to overlook guys like Buck. If you are a win-now kind of fantasy player, then having Buck on your team may benefit you over a player like Matt Weiters. Buck’s problem has always been hitting for a decent average. So far, he’s 33 points above his career numbers. He also has three multi-homer games already, and he could easily hit 25 by season’s end.

Chipper Jones —53 percent of Y! Leagues
5 R / 1 HR / 7 RBI / .471 BA
Yes, he’s older and hitting 50 points below his career .306 average. But he’s still one of the best third basemen of the past 20 years. If Troy Glaus can have a comeback year, then Chipper can too. Expect better numbers in the second half, assuming he doesn’t battle injuries like he has over the past few seasons.

Scott Podsednik —53 percent of Y! Leagues
5 R / 1 HR / 7 RBI / 2 SB / .286 BA
I’m so tempted to call the Royals the worst team in the league, but the truth is that the Indians and Orioles are certainly worse. Regardless, Speedy Scotty is back to his old form, running the bejeezus out of the bases. Injuries have really dropped Podsednik off the radar. But he’s healthy this year and on track for at least 40 stolen bases.

Justin Smoak —13 percent of Y! Leagues
5 R / 2 HR / 8 RBI / .320 BA
After a dismal start, Smoak has put together a solid last month (15 R / 4 HR / 21 RBI /.278 avg). With the influx of all the call-ups, owners have forgotten to come back around to take a look at what Smoak is doing. He won’t be available for much longer. Go get him.

Angel Pagan —33 percent of Y! Leagues
3 R / 5 RBI / 2 SB / .417 BA
Pagan has been on fire the past month, batting .327, with 15 runs, 13 RBIs, and nine SB. I seem to be less and less worried about Beltran coming back and squeezing Pagan out. Angel really has been at the center of the revitalized Mets.

HURLERS

Carl Pavano —16 percent of Y! Leagues
16 IP / 2 W / 7 K / 2.25 ERA / 0.63 WHIP
Despite Pavano’s 8-6 record, this is actually his best season since 2004. There’s still plenty of time for Carl to get back to his usual mediocre numbers. But right now, he is pretty much holding career bests in ERA, WHIP, and BAA. His last game was a gem against the struggling Phils. Pavano went nine innings and only gave up one run. Ten of his 15 outings have been quality starts!

Max Scherzer —34 percent of Y! Leagues
13 IP / 2 W / 17 K / 2.77 ERA / 1.15 WHIP
This kid has so much talent. Owners were expecting a lot more out of Scherzer this year, and a few have jumped back on the boat since his return. In five games since returning, he has a 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 41Ks. If you lack strikeouts, Mad Max is your guy!

J. J. Putz —3 percent of Y! Leagues
3 IP / 1 W / 1 SV/ 3 K / 0.00 ERA / 0.33 WHIP
It’s truly amazing how quickly relief pitchers fall from grace. From 2006 through 2007, Putz amassed an amazing 76 saves with just a 1.86 ERA. Those days are long gone and J. J. has been reduced to a set-up guy, just silently waiting for Jenks to get injured or implode. Unless you are in a crazy deep league, there are better middle relievers out there.

Joel Pineiro —27 percent of Y! Leagues
8 IP / 1 W / 5 K / 1.12 ERA / 0.50 WHIP
I feel like a broken record saying this, but Pineiro is a roller-coaster ride. He pitches well against the tough teams then blows-up against clubs like the Royals. There is no rhyme or reason to whether he will have a good game or not, and so I’ve always stayed away.

When he is on though, he can be as good as they come. In his last two games, Pineiro has pitched 17 innings, and allowed just eight hits, two runs, while striking out 12 against only two walks!

Like clockwork, though, Joel will have a bad game at some point in his next one or two outings, regardless of who he is facing.

Jason Vargas —29 percent of Y! Leagues
7.2 IP / 1 W / 4 K / 1.17 ERA / 0.65 WHIP
After his first game, Vargas has put up a quality start in all of his games since (one game was only five innings, but he still only gave up two runs). Honestly, if the Mariners we’re any better, we could be looking at 9-2 record instead of a 5-2 line.

Vargas’ season ERA is under 3.00, his WHIP is just above 1.00, and batters are only hitting .225 against the pitcher. In his fifth year, Vargas may have finally figured it out.

Who do you think is the best waiver wire pickup of the week? Can Smoak keep it up?
Leave a comment at the top or reply to us on twitter.
Twitter.com/thefantasyfix

Article by Evan Marx exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Evan writes a Must or Bust article and a few other gems weekly. He likes long walks on the beach and quoting Ivan Drago at least once a day.

For more Fantasy Sports Advice, Insight and Analysis visit www.TheFantasyFix.com

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It looks like Max Scherzer’s brief stint with the Detroit Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate the Toledo Mud Hens was just what he needed.

Scherzer dominated while in Toledo, and he looked to be in top form against the Oakland Athletics on Sunday.

The young right-handed pitcher blazed his way through the A’s lineup with 14 of 17 outs coming by way of strikeout.

And he was aided by his friends during his second big-league triumph.

Detroit’s offense perked up a bit, and the MoTowners downed the A’s 10-2 for the first win of the Memorial Day weekend series.

More importantly, there seems to be a little life in catcher Gerald Laird’s bat—even if for a game.

Laird did something Sunday that he has had trouble accomplishing lately—putting the ball in play.

He finished with two hits, one of which scored a run. On the other side of the coin, his excitement to be on base cost Jim Leyland’s club a base runner, as he was picked off by a sly move to first by A’s pitcher Dallas Braden .

In his second game back from the 15-day disabled list, second basemen Carlos Guillen made his return felt.

Guillen collected just one hit, which drove in a run, but his arm and glove are proving to be invaluable at the middle bag—a slot that he hasn’t played on regular basis in over a decade.

His presence in the infield has brought much needed relief to a position that has been weak for the Tigers.

Brandon Inge must be reading newspapers and Tigers blogs.

He looked like he was on a mission to dismiss his abysmal month-long hitting drought. May hasn’t been kind to Inge—he has just 13 hits in the month, 11 less than he did in April. Racking up three in the last week will likely boost his confidence in regard to swinging the stick.

The Tigers’ third baseman went 3-for-3, which included a home run in the fourth inning. The touch-em-all hit put the Tigers in cruise control on their way to their 26th win of the season.

And speaking of bats, Miguel Cabrera’s is hotter than the weather. Cabrera is on a maniacal pace in 2010, plating runs like it’s going out of style. He had four RBIs on Sunday and holds the top spot in the majors with 48, which is five better than Texas’ Vlad Guerrero.

The American League Central race appears to be a two-horse derby. The Minnesota Twins are nursing a three-game advantage, with Tigers slowly but surely gaining ground.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

To call Max Scherzer’s first eight starts of the 2010 season disastrous would be an understatement.  When you are carrying a 7.29 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, there is no one word to succinctly describe just how bad you’ve been.

We can talk about luck (58.0% strand rate), but the fact of the matter is that he just hasn’t been good.  His strikeouts were down significantly (9.2 K/9 in ‘09 vs. 5.6 K/9 in ‘10).  His average fastball was down nearly 2 mph.

Yet, now back in the comfy confines of Triple A, Scherzer looks like he has suddenly rediscovered his form.  Just look at his numbers through his first two starts:

2 Wins
15.0 Innings
0.60 ERA
0.40 WHIP
17 Strikeouts (10.2 K/9)
2 Walks (1.2 BB/9)
.137 BABIP

We all know the BABIP is unrealistic, so I have to take his overall numbers with a small grain of salt.

The numbers to focus on are the strikeouts and walks.  Obviously, it’s a small sample size and he’s not facing as talented hitters, but the results still speak volumes.  Also, it appears that his velocity is back.  According to The Detroit Free Press, Scherzer sat between 92-95 mph with his fastball in his first start (click here  for the full article).

Here’s an excerpt from an article from the Toledo Blade after that start, which may help to explain his resurgence (click here  for the full article).

“I was working on shortening my arm action to allow my arm to find my natural arm slot,” Scherzer said. “I think that made my secondary stuff better, and allowed me to pitch with three pitches.

“I was able to get my slider over, get my change-up over, and I was able to throw them out of the zone when I needed to.”

That was the purpose of sending him back to Triple A.  He clearly needed to work on something and it just wasn’t happening at the major league level.  He’s going to be back sooner rather than later, and you would think with significantly better results if you are to believe these quotes (and why should we not?)

I was skeptical of Scherzer heading into the season, but at this point you can get him for pennies on the dollar (in other words, he’s on the waiver wire in some formats).  Where else are you going to find that type of strikeout potential at this point in the season?  He’s clearly worth picking up for when he returns.

Is he a lock to be a fantasy ace like some had hoped prior to the season?  Absolutely not, but chances are he’s going to be productive.

What are your thoughts?  Do you buy into the correction of his mechanics?  Is he a pitcher you’d be willing to stash?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Tigers have played 39 games in the 2010 season. They recently shook up their roster in a weekend series against the Boston Red Sox. Struggling SP Max Scherzer and 2B Scott Sizemore were shipped off to exile in the minors. The pair have given fans ample opportunity to scratch their heads and wonder about some of the offseason moves the Tigers made.

Well, I figure 39 games is enough of a sample to evaluate and second guess everything the front office did over the winter. Let’s see what David Dombrowski got right for this season, potentially for the future, and what he perhaps bombed out on.

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