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The Miami Marlins got quite the shock on Monday. Jose Fernandez was sent to Los Angeles for an MRI to check his elbow. According to Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network, the diagnosis was a sprained elbow. That diagnosis specifically points to UCL involvement. The UCL is the ligament replaced in Tommy John surgery.

Naturally, the Marlins are very concerned. After his MRI, Fernandez was sent back to Miami to consult with team physicians. The team is worried, as indicated here:

The trip to Los Angeles is guided by the Marlins being on the West Coast. It is commonly believed but unconfirmed that Fernandez was sent to the world-famous Kerlan-Jobe Clinic. While he could have had the MRI anywhere, Los Angeles Dodgers team physician Neal ElAttrache is one of the most respected surgeons in the game and could give a consult. Baseball teams do not travel with their own doctors and often use those of other teams in similar circumstances.

Fernandez, who finished third in last year’s Cy Young voting, has only pitched 220 innings in the major leagues and had only 26 starts in the minor leagues, as he dominated at every level he stopped at. While Fernandez was born in Cuba, he lived in South Florida and went to a U.S. high school, where he was scouted closely throughout much of his career.

Like most pitchers, there are no good stats on how much he was used in high school or for travel teams, but he was someone who showed up at many of the showcase events with his plus velocity. There is no evidence that Fernandez was overused at any level. Fernandez has even been praised for his pitch efficiency.

Fernandez has plus velocity, though he is certainly not solely reliant on it, as Troy Tulowitzki recently found out. His mix of pitches is almost identical to last year. His velocity had been consistent, but in the fifth inning of his last game, it appeared to have taken a major drop down. This could be where the injury happened.

Fernandez has none of the red flags we normally look for. He has no high-innings totals and was all but shut down at the end of his rookie season by the Marlins. He has no games with excessive pitch counts. Few point to any mechanical issues, though Chris O’Leary suggests that Fernandez has changed his mechanics. 

If Fernandez is found to have a sprained UCL, it will be further proof that all the standard things that teams currently do to protect pitchers aren’t working. Fernandez isn’t yet locked into the path that too many pitchers are headed, losing a year of his young career to surgery and rehab, but we have to wonder what more has to happen before baseball changes its approach.

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Many of us knew and expected the Miami Marlins to be better in 2014.

But many of us couldn’t have predicted the Marlins to be five games over .500, have the best home record in the majors, the second-best run differential in the National League and be on top of the NL East division at this moment.

That’s the good news. The bad news is as well as the Marlins have played, there are flaws on this team that need to be fixed. After all, the Marlins are one of a handful of dark horses who are trying to pry their way into the playoffs. And if they stick around for another two months, upgrades are going to be needed.

Season-altering trades aren’t made until close to the July 31 trade deadline, but the groundwork for such deals usually begin around this time. Players are evaluated, intel is gathered and hypothetical trades are kicked around.

While the Marlins began the season with the second-lowest payroll in baseball at $47 million, owner Jeffrey Loria probably wouldn’t be opposed to adding payroll if this team makes a serious push for a playoff berth. When the Marlins have been in contention, he has loosened the purse strings.

Consider the following:

• With the Marlins in fourth place in the NL East and 4.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the lone wild-card spot, the Marlins traded future All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and two other players to the Texas Rangers for closer Ugueth Urbina.
• A month later, on August 31, 2003, the Marlins traded a pair of minor leaguers to the Baltimore Orioles for Mr. Marlin, Jeff Conine, hours before the deadline for adding players to the roster and having them eligible for the postseason. The Marlins needed to make this deal after third baseman Mike Lowell broke his left hand and was considered to miss the rest of the regular season. At the time, the Marlins caught the Phillies and were tied for the wild-card spot. As you may remember, the Marlins won the Wild Card by four games and went on to win the 2003 World Series. 
• In 2004, in an attempt to defend their title, the Marlins traded for outfielder Juan Encarnacion, catcher Paul Lo Duca and reliever Guillermo Mota from the Los Angeles Dodgers a day before the trade deadline. Less than 24 hours later, the Marlins acquired reliever Rudy Seanez and starting pitcher Ismael Valdes in two separate trades. In total, the Marlins gave up Hee-Seop Choi, Bill Murphy, Brad Penny, Abraham Nunez and Travis Chick. At the time of the trade with the Dodgers, the Marlins were 4.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and five games behind the Padres for the lone wild-card spot. 
• Four years later, the Marlins were back in contention as they sat 1.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East and two back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the wild-card spot. In a minor but effective deal, the Marlins dealt minor leaguer Gaby Hernandez to the Seattle Mariners for left-handed reliever Arthur Rhodes, who went 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA in 25 appearances.
• In 2009, the Marlins were just two games back of the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants for the wild-card spot. Trying to bolster their offense, the Marlins traded Aaron Thompson to the Washington Nationals for Nick Johnson. 

Now that the Marlins look to be on their way back, they might not be afraid to pull off another trade to mask their flaws. It’s our job to figure out what they need and what kind of trades they should start considering.

Without further ado, from most important to least important, here are four areas where the Marlins should already be thinking about making a trade.

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Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is up to his usual tricks this season, with eight home runs and 32 RBI through 28 games heading into Friday’s contest against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Stanton knocked in 31 of those 32 runs before the end of April, setting a franchise record for most RBI before the beginning of May, per ESPN Stats & Info.

The previous record holder, Moises Alou, had 30 RBI for the Marlins before May 1 in 1997 while also hitting eight home runs. He finished the month with a white-hot .360/.430/.744 slash line, but Alou finished the year at a more modest .292/.373/.493, with 23 home runs and 115 RBI.

Stanton held an excellent but not overwhelming .269/.342/.565 line at the end of April, as his 35 strikeouts through 120 plate appearances (29.2 percent K rate) made it hard to post a top-notch batting average or on-base percentage. 

Where Stanton excelled was crushing baseballs and knocking in runs. His eight home runs are tied with Justin Upton’s for second place in the National League, and his 32 RBI are well ahead of Adrian Gonzalez’s 25 for first.

What’s more, Stanton has a knack for making his home runs count. He’s hit three of the 10 longest dingers in all of baseball this season, per ESPN’s Home Run Tracker. His 484-foot blast on April 4 reigns as the furthest hit homer in the majors this season, two feet ahead of a 482-foot David Ortiz long ball.

The 24-year-old outfielder already has a small piece of Marlins history, but he’s likely aiming higher than an April record. The team single-season home run (42) and RBI (121) records could be in reach, with the former set by Gary Sheffield in 1996 and the latter by Preston Wilson in 2000.

Be it this year, next, or some time in the distant future, Stanton should eventually break at least one of the two records, if not both.

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Hey, the Miami Marlins are 1-0 and are in the first place in the National League East.

At this rate, they will go 162-0 and win the World Series.

Too much, too soon?

Yeah, it probably is, but that’s what happens when the Marlins score 10 runs in their season opener Monday to back a nine-strikeout, six-inning gem from 21-year-old pitching phenom Jose Fernandez. The win marked the first time the franchise has been above .500 since June 16, 2012 when they beat the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3 in 15 innings.

While some might actually be naive enough to think the Marlins will go 162-0 and win the World Series, few are predicting the Marlins to go from worst to first, let alone get to .500. That said, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 season. Why else would one of the bigger dirty secrets in sports media is to write as many feel-good stories as possible in the offseason? Because no team can lose games when there are no games to be played.

But now that there has been a game played and won, some Marlins think there is a reason to be hopeful about 2014 despite losing 100 games last year and finishing last in the NL East three consecutive years.

I hope so, because this team is special,” Fernandez told MLB.com after the opener. “I see that. Not because we scored 10 runs (Monday). We’re going to lose a couple, but this team is going to fight. That’s the only thing we want. We want to go out there and fight.

Well, we’re not going to stop at one reason, are we? In lieu of Fernandez’s fighting spirit, here are three more reasons to be optimistic about the Marlins’ 2014 season.

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Let’s flashback one year. After only 11 starts in Double-A, the Marlins announce that a 20-year-old named Jose Fernandez will break camp with the big league squad. Most had predicted perhaps a late-season call-up for Fernandez as the extent of his time spent in Miami for the 2013 campaign. 

Now to the current day, where Fernandez is just two-and-a-half-weeks away from taking the ball on Opening Day as the reigning NL Rookie of the Year as part of a sensational season in which he placed second in Cy Young voting. He is, simply, one of the top pitchers in the sport. 

No one can question what the Cuban defect pulled off last year, but what does that mean in terms of fantasy value in 2014? Where should he be picked? Is regression inevitable? Can he somehow improve in his sophomore year? Here’s the answer: If you’re looking to make a splash in your league, don’t be afraid to reach for Fernandez as he could definitely wind up being a bonafide steal. 

Fernandez is 53rd in ESPN.com’s Fantasy Rankings and 33rd in Yahoo’s preseason projections, while his ADP (average draft position) is slightly lower than that at 37. The only real knock on Fernandez is that most are predicting somewhat of a sophomore slump after a rookie year that included a 2.19 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and a 9.75 K/9 rate. After all, how many 21 year olds can realistically be expected to improve upon those figures?

However, there is reason to suggest that Fernandez can do just that. He was significantly better in the season’s second half than its first. Based on these visuals from Fangraphs, Fernandez improved in almost every respect compared to the league average as the season progressed. This means that even though teams were acquiring more and more film on Fernandez, he was bucking the trend of rookies struggling to adjust as the league gets a second and third look at them.

ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) also suggests not to assume Fernandez is bound to slip. His early success has not gone to his head, and Fernandez’s home division is not one known for its offensive dominance.

I get that Fernandez is young and you might expect some regression. Or, he could be like the young Dwight Gooden, who quickly jumped from great to the most dominant pitcher in baseball, throwing fastballs and curveballs. Word from the Marlins is that they love his work ethic, and while he is known to have favored-nation status from owner Jeffrey Loria, the staff hasn’t seen a diva developing. 

One more thing: Fernandez pitches in arguably the most offensively challenged division in the majors, and four of the five home parks—those of the Mets, Nationals, Braves and Marlins—are viewed as places that generally foster good pitching. Not that he needs help. 

Beyond his pure statistical dominance, Fernandez also would appear to have a ton of value in fantasy amongst the top starting pitchers. The starting hurlers who ESPN has ranked above Fernandez are as follows: Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner. 

To rank 10 different pitchers above Fernandez seems like a high total. One could make the case that of the group listed above, only three (Kershaw, Darvish and Scherzer) had a better 2013 than Fernandez. In the second half of the year (where we’ve already established the righty really emerged as a monster), none of those three had a lower WHIP, ERA, Opponents’ Batting Average Against or Opponents’ On-Base Plus Slugging than Fernandez. 

For those that fancy sabermetrics, Fernandez stacks up quite nicely there as well. Of that group, only Kershaw, Hernandez and Wainwright had a higher DIPS, or Defense Independent ERA. Only Kershaw, who was the sole pitcher to finish ahead of Fernandez in NL Cy Young voting (of course), finished with a lower Component ERA, which predicts ERA based on walks and hits allowed rather than actual runs allowed. Confusing, I know, but basically Fernandez was as good as any pitcher last year, including Kershaw. 

It’s also hard to argue with Fernandez’s impressive array of pitches. Few, if any, hurlers have three extremely strong options in their repertoire as does Fernandez. His fastball, curveball and slider are all plus-pitches that he can dominate with. See below:   

Fernandez might very well be on his way to being labeled a top-five pitcher in the league by the end of the year. Reach for him. You’ll thank me later.  

All statistics used are from ESPN.com unless otherwise noted. 

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We’re less than a month away from when pitchers and catchers report to spring training, so it’s time to assess what the Miami Marlins need and who is still out there to be had.

But before we begin, let’s check the Marlins shopping list and see if there’s anything the Marlins forgot to buy.

An offensively skilled catcher? Check. The Marlins signed Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a three-year contract worth $21 million. 

A power-hitting first baseman? Check. The Marlins signed Garrett Jones to a two-year deal worth $7.75 million.

An upgrade at second base? Check. The Marlins signed Rafael Furcal to a one-year agreement worth $3 million. Furcal can also earn an additional $1.5 million in performance bonuses, according to the Sun-Sentinel.

Fixing the black hole known as third base? Check. The Marlins signed Casey McGehee to a one-year pact worth $1.1 million. McGehee can also earn an extra $400,000 in performance bonuses. 

About the only item still on the Marlins shopping cart is a veteran reliever, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, especially after the Marlins nontendered Ryan Webb, who signed with the Baltimore Orioles, while Chad Qualls inked a deal with the Houston Astros. 

Looking back at last season, the Marlins signed Qualls and Jon Rauch and they had a few commonalities. For starters, both guys signed a one-year pact—Qualls on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training while Rauch joined the Marlins on a $1 million contract. The other commonality they had was Qualls and Rauch had experience in high-leverage situations—Qualls has 51 career saves while Rauch had 62—which might come in handy as Steve Cishek was penciled in as the team’s full-time closer. 

Now, the Marlins are probably looking to add a reliever or two in the same mold as Qualls and Rauch even though Rauch was designated for assignment six weeks into the 2013 season while Qualls (5-2 record, 2.61 ERA in 62 innings) exceeded expectations. 

Without further ado, in descending order, here are the best remaining available free agent relievers the Marlins could target for an invitation to spring training or sign to a major league contract.

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The Miami Marlins’ farm system is a shell compared to its pre-2013 state, though that was expected following the graduation of two monster prospects in Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich.

Fernandez ranked among the major league leaders in numerous statistical categories, including first in opponents’ batting average (.182) and hits allowed per nine innings (5.8 H/9), fourth in WHIP (0.98) and fifth in strikeouts per nine innings (9.75 K/9). Fernandez’s 2.19 ERA was the second-best mark in the major leagues as well as the lowest by a rookie starter in either league since 1970.

On the other side of the ball, Christian Yelich, 22, emerged as one of the best young hitters in the game following a call-up in late July, as the sweet-swinging left-handed hitter posted a .288/.370/.396 batting line and 116 wRC+ in 273 plate appearances, per FanGraphs.

Down on the farm, the Marlins have one of the deepest collections of left-handed pitching prospects in baseball, with four young hurlers who have already experienced success at or above the Double-A level. While top prospect Andrew Heaney has the realistic upside of a No. 3 starter, the team’s other southpaws—Justin Nicolino, Adam Conley and Brian Flynn—are better-suited for a role in the back of a rotation.  

The system didn’t have a lot of power to begin with before the graduation of Yelich to the major leagues. So, replacing Yelich as the team’s top position prospect on this year’s list is fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick, who was rushed from Double-A to the major leagues last season, where he struggled to control the speed of the game. However, 2013 first-round pick (No. 6 overall) Colin Moran isn’t far behind Marisnick, and he’s the safe bet to rank as the organization’s top position prospect at this time next year.

One prospect to keep an eye on in 2014 is catcher J.T. Realmuto. The 2010 third-round draft pick is an excellent athlete with the catch-and-throw skills to at least serve as a major league backup at maturity, and his bat-to-ball ability and contact rates suggest the bat could be a late-bloomer.

Here’s a look at the Miami Marlins’ top 10 prospects for the 2014 season.

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Jarrod Saltalamacchia is taking his talents to South Beach.

The 28-year-old catcher has agreed in principle to a three-year deal that will pay him $21 million:

It’s a surprising move, especially considering the Marlins had a fire sale last offseason. It now brings up the question: Are the Marlins ready to compete?

For a team with a young core of good pitching, the move makes sense and provides great value compared to the other catchers signed this offseason.

And let’s not forget, Saltalamacchia is a huge upgrade over what the Marlins had in place last year:

Offensively, there’s no comparing Salty to Jeff Mathis and Rob Brantly. He’s superior in every offensive category, and the Marlins have a definite upgrade there.

Where the issue might be is defensively and his ability to throw out runners. But then again, all you have to do is look at who he will have on the mound. Jose Fernandez (2.19 ERA, 0.979 WHIP) and Henderson Alvarez (3.59 ERA, 1.140 WHIP) are just two of the young guns he’ll have as battery-mates. They’ll only get better in 2014.

Then you have Jacob Turner, Nathan Eovaldi and a lot of other arms in the minor leagues that Salty will use to his benefit.

So, we know it’s a good move for the Marlins. But what makes it a good move compared to the other catchers that have signed?

Comparing Saltalamacchia to Other Recently-Signed Catchers

Salty was nowhere near the best catcher on the market. But looking at his deal, the Marlins have made off like bandits.

Here’s how he compares to other recently-signed catchers:

*Note: A.J. Pierzynski’s deal was reported by ESPN’s Buster Olney.

So, when you look at the numbers next to each other, it seems like the Marlins got a great deal when they signed Saltalamacchia.

There’s no question Brian McCann is one of the best catchers in the game. But is he worth $10 million more a year than Saltalamacchia? He compared well to McCann in 2013. But what about 2012?

McCann batted .230/.300/.399 with 20 home runs and 67 RBI, while Salty batted .222/.288/.454 with 25 home runs and 59 RBI. The numbers are very comparable, but yet McCann still makes a lot more than Saltalamacchia.

Of course, there will be those that point to McCann’s seven all-star appearances and five Silver Sluggers. But in a game where the “What have you done for me lately” mentality reigns supreme, McCann hasn’t been $10 million more per year impressive.

We can look at Carlos Ruiz’s numbers as well. He’s only hit double-digits in home runs once and, like Salty, has never thrown out more than 29 percent of base-stealers. Yet he’s worth $5 million more over three years than Saltalamacchia.

Nothing about the stats over the last few years scream those players are that much better than Saltalamacchia.

The Perfect Piece

While the Marlins needed an upgrade at catcher, they also needed someone who has won before in the locker room. Salty has won before.

As we’ve seen in years past, it’s not always about finding the sexiest piece, it’s about finding the right piece. The Red Sox found that with Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli this past season. The Giants found it with Marco Scutaro in 2012.

This is not to say the Marlins will win the World Series in 2014. There are still a few improvements needed offensively. But there’s no reason to believe they can’t make some noise in 2014.

After all, they won 62 games with their ragtag bunch last year. Imagine what having Jake Marisnick and Christian Yelich for a full season will do? Marisnick was one of the key pieces that came over from Toronto in last year’s blockbuster.

Anything can happen in baseball. As we’ve seen with the Athletics, as long as you have great pitching and a few solid veterans, you can have success.

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Now that the General Manager Meetings have wrapped up last week, activity has begun to pick up.

In the past week, starting pitcher Tim Hudson has a pending agreement to join the San Francisco Giants, outfielder Marlon Byrd inked a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies and catcher Carlos Ruiz decided to stay put with the Phillies. That’s three of ESPN.com’s top 50 free agents off the market. 

Moreover, rumors are swirling as we are a little more than a week away from the Thanksgiving holiday. For instance, Jay-Z and the New York Mets held a secret dinner Monday night to discuss free agent second baseman Robinson Cano, according to the New York Post. Last week, the New York Post had a theory the Miami Marlins could be a stealth bidder for Cano’s services because they are further along in their accumulation of young talent, and no owner has proven more impetuous in spending and selling off than Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria.

Basically, at this time of the year, you can’t trust everything you read. But because of that, we’re here to help decipher what is real and what is fantasy in the Marlins world.

From the least impactful to most impactful, we’ll play fact or fiction with the latest Marlins rumors.

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Imagine a scenario where the Miami Marlins calls Jay Z’s sports agency, Roc Nation, and tells him they are prepared to offer All-Star second baseman Robinson Cano the 10-year, $300 milllion contract the New York Yankees aren’t willing to put on the table. 

Roc Nation, surprised but skeptical because of what team is on the other line, decides to tell the Marlins they want $350 million for 10 years. Unfazed, the Marlins says that won’t be a problem. 

By Christmas, Cano signs with the Marlins, and the baseball world is stunned.

Believe it or not, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman thinks the Marlins could be a stealth bidder for Cano because they are further along in their accumulation of young talent, and no owner has proven more impetuous in spending and selling off than Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria.

In reality, this scenario is a pipe dream. There’s a better chance the Chicago Cubs will win the 2014 World Series than the Marlins have on spending more than $300 million on one single player. But if the Marlins did pull it off, no one would have seen it coming.

And that’s the point of this exercise, which is we will take a look at what big moves, from least likely to most likely, the “cash-strapped” Miami Marlins could realistically pull off this offseason. 

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