Kuzul

With Opening Day fast approaching, Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera is in line to reach 2,000 career hits before the weather in Detroit gets warm.

The two-time reigning American League MVP has 1,995 hits through 11 seasons, leaving him just five shy of a milestone that 276 other players have accomplished.

Given his all-world capabilities at the plate, Cabrera figures to reach 2,000 during the season’s first week, and he could even get there by the second or third game. Come to think of it, since it’s Cabrera we’re talking about, would anybody really be surprised if he piles up all five hits in his first game?

Kansas City Royals pitcher James Shields—who will face the Tigers on Opening Day—might have something to say about that, but the right-hander probably wouldn’t say it to Miggy’s face.

Shields has been one of the better pitchers in the American League for three years now, yet Cabrera sees a punching bag where the rest of us see an imposing workhorse. His 40 career at-bats against Shields have yielded 17 hits (.425 batting average), including two home runs and six doubles, not to mention four walks and just six strikeouts.

Unquestionably the game’s preeminent hitter, Cabrera will cruise past 2,000 hits without a second thought, his eyes likely on a World Series and bigger milestones.

As evidenced by its 276 members and counting, the 2,000-hit club isn’t nearly as exclusive as the 3,000-hit club, which is comprised of just 28 players.

No 30-year-old can be considered a shoo-in to pile up 1,005 more hits in his career, but Cabrera is awfully close. With nine consecutive 180-hit seasons to his name, Miggy’s ETA for 3,000 is 2019 or 2020.

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“‘Begin at the beginning,’ the King said gravely, ‘and go on till you come to the end: then stop.'” – Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland. 

Daniel Okrent, the man credited with inventing fantasy baseball in 1980, once said, “I feel like J. Robert Oppenheimer having invented the atomic bomb.  I mean, look what I’ve unleashed on the world.”

A game that was started in 1980 by a few friends in a now-defunct Manhattan restaurant called La Rotisserie Français has exploded into a phenomenon that’s enjoyed by millions today. 

At the heart of fantasy baseball is statistical analysis. One can make the argument that if it weren’t for fantasy baseball, advanced metrics wouldn’t be as widely accepted as they are today. 

For the fantasy baseball player, a principal understanding of statistical analysis is paramount in attempting to predict future performance. In this ongoing player forecast series, I’ll analyze players using metrics that could best indicate what that particular player may do in the 2014 season. 

Which brings me to the quote from Alice in Wonderland above. What better way to start this series than with the player than was ranked first by ESPN’s Player Rater in 2014, Miguel Cabrera. 

2013 was another banner year for the Detroit Tigers slugger. On the surface, Cabrera was spectacular again. He batted .348 with 44 home runs and 137 RBI. 

The underlying skill set of Cabrera is basically everything you could want from a baseball player.

Firstly, Cabrera is amongst the elite in the game at pitch recognition. His batting eye (BB/K) came in at 0.96. In the last five seasons, Cabrera’s contact rate ((AB-K)/AB) hasn’t dipped below 80 percent. He also hit more line drives and fewer ground balls than in his Triple Crown season (granted, he logged 77 fewer at-bats.) Cabrera also sustained a higher Home Run to Fly Ball rate (25.4 percent) in 2013 than he has in his entire career. 

He continues to see the ball well, making consistent contact while hitting the ball in the air with authority. The only knock on Cabrera’s fantasy game is his complete uselessness in the steals department. But his extraordinary production in other areas sustains his value as a top pick.  

The Tigers trade of Prince Fielder to the Rangers does take some protection away from Cabrera. However, Ian Kinsler at the top of the Tigers lineup could provide more opportunities for Cabrera to hit with men on base. 

Some may point to the second half of 2013 to suggest Cabrera may be finally slowing down. Cabrera had offseason groin surgery after the injury was severely limiting his ability to hit for power in the season. He only hit one home run in the month of September. 

Despite the injury, Cabrera is still one of the most durable and reliable fantasy options to build your team around. In snake drafts, you’ll be lucky to snag him outside of the top five selections. In auction drafts, be prepared to bid north of $40 to acquire his services. 

Expect more of the same in 2014 from Miguel Cabrera. 

2014 Forecast: .332, 38 HR, 126 RBI, 100 R, 2 SB

All stats taken from Fangraphs.com unless noted otherwise. 

You can follow John Otano on Twitter @MisterOtano.

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If you see Miguel Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen walking around, they might be comporting themselves a little differently. Chest puffed out. Semi-smug grin. Bouncy steps.

If so, well, who can blame them? Awards tend to do that to people.

If you missed Thursday’s news, Cabrera and McCutchen were named the Most Valuable Players for their respective leagues: Miggy for the American League and ‘Cutch for the National League. It wasn’t particularly close either, as Miggy easily outpaced Mike Trout and ‘Cutch comfortably held off Paul Goldschmidt.

While Trout (especially) and Goldschmidt did have strong cases, neither Cabrera nor McCutchen was a truly outrageous selection. Cabrera led the American League in average, on-base percentage and slugging to help the Detroit Tigers to the AL Central crown. McCutchen hit over .300 and notched his third straight 20/20 season to help lead the Pittsburgh Pirates to their first playoff berth in two decades. 

But it’s in the past now. A good question to help pass the time is what the future holds for both of the 2013 MVPs. Where are Cabrera and McCutchen going from here?

We’ll tackle them one at a time, starting with Cabrera.

For Miguel Cabrera

You know you’re talking about a truly great year when an amazing hitter manages to outdo himself.

That’s what Cabrera did in 2013. He entered the year as a .318/.395/.561 career hitter and proceeded to hit .348/.442/.636. Only his OBP wasn’t a new career high, and he also set new career highs in OPS+ and, according to FanGraphs, wRC+ and WAR.

Whether or not Cabrera can keep doing his thing is not a matter that requires pondering his skill set. He’s proven himself many times over as an ideal hitter. Great plate discipline, excellent plate coverage, an extraordinary ability to put his bat on the ball, easy-as-it-comes power and so on.

However, there is still a question mark hanging over the notion of how much longer Cabrera can keep it up. It just has more to do with his health, his age and all the mileage he’s covered.

We all know what happened to Miggy down the stretch in 2013. He battled abdominal and groin injuries for much of the second half, and by the end of the year he just wasn’t himself anymore. He hit a respectable .284 with a .396 OBP in his final 25 games but with only two extra-base hits. He was able to pop a couple homers in October but was overmatched on anything hard that he had to reach for.

It all felt like a reality check. Cabrera was an iron man up until 2013, playing in at least 150 games every year between 2004 and 2012. His injuries ultimately forced him to miss that mark in 2013.

Now, Cabrera did have surgery to repair the groin injury that plagued him toward the end of the year. The word is that he should be ready for spring training. And if there’s a bright side to the Tigers getting ousted from the postseason when they did, it’s that Cabrera didn’t risk a more serious injury by playing in as many as eight more playoff games.

But still you wonder. Cabrera will be 31 years old in April and has already played in 1,660 career games and logged over 7,000 plate appearances. That’s an awful lot of action.

Historically a lot of action, in fact. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Cabrera is one of only 17 players in history with as many as 7,000 plate appearances through the age of 30.

Most of the other 16 didn’t do quite so well in the years following their age-30 seasons. I used FanGraphs to pull up their wRC+ totals through their age-30 seasons, and then compared those numbers to what they did over the next three seasons (31-33). 

The comparison looks like this:

The players who are highlighted are the ones whose offensive performances declined in the 31-33 window. Count ’em up, and 11 out of 16 players are highlighted. Not exactly an encouraging percentage.

A definitive sign that doom awaits Cabrera?

Not necessarily. There’s always a chance that Miggy will be an exception to the rule, a la Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Alex Rodriguez, Al Kaline and Robin Yount. And because his performance itself had never been better than what it was in 2013, Cabrera could obviously be standing on shakier ground.

A sharp decline, however, is a possibility that needs to be taken seriously. We know that Miggy has an awful lot of miles on his body, and we know that said body finally broke down as 2013, his 11th season in the big leagues, wore on.

We also know that Miggy‘s at an age when declines have been known to happen even regardless of workload.

According to research done by Jeff Zimmerman for Beyond the Box Score, most hitters are already declining rapidly by the time they hit their 30s. Zimmerman went on to do further research on star hitters (i.e. Cabrera) for FanGraphs, and what he found is that even Hall of Famers have tended to go into steep declines upon hitting their 30s.

For what it’s worth, disaster probably isn’t awaiting Cabrera in 2014. In fact, the Steamer projection system (via FanGraphs) sees his 2014 season being a lot like his 2013 season:

As good as his 2013 season? Nope, but still outstanding. At the least, it is encouraging that Steamer sees a wRC+ higher than Cabrera’s career mark. 

So my advice is to not take Cabrera’s 2014 season for granted, as there’s a decent chance it will be his last great year. He’ll be 32 in 2015, which is something of a frightening number. Guys like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Albert Pujols all got reality checks in their age-32 seasons. Josh Hamilton just did in his own age-32 season.

Cabrera’s recent injury troubles, the history of heavy-workload-before-the-age-of-30 guys and the aging curves of star hitters suggest that he could well be next in line.

For Andrew McCutchen

Who’s in for a different sort of discussion? One that’s a bit more optimistic?

You? Good. Because that’s what we’re in for here with McCutchen‘s future.

McCutchen is different from Cabrera in a couple ways. He’s several years younger, for one, as he just turned 27 in October and is only through his age-26 season. Whereas Cabrera is likely nearing the end of his prime, McCutchen is still in the thick of his own.

The other difference with McCutchen, however, is that with him it’s still possible to be curious as to what sort of hitter he really is. He went from being a .276/.365/.458 hitter in his first three seasons to being a .322/.402/.531 hitter in the last two. That’s quite the leap, so we can still look at him and ask, “Yeah, but is this really who he is?”

Given what McCutchen has going for him, I’d say yes. 

McCutchen didn’t hit for as much power in 2013 as he did in 2012, but that was bound to happen. He hit a career-high 31 homers in 2012 despite a career-low 34.3 FB%, according to FanGraphs. Factor in his home ballpark, the power-suppressing PNC Park, and his 19.9 HR/FB rate just didn’t add up.

Things essentially normalized for McCutchen in 2013. His FB% stayed steady at 34.8 percent, and the 12.4 HR/FB he posted looked a lot like his 12.2 HR/FB in 2011 and his career HR/FB of 12.3.

In terms of power, this is more than likely the real McCutchen. He’s a 20-homer guy rather than a 30-homer guy. A guy with above-average power rather than a guy with well-above-average power.

And that’s OK. McCutchen just won an MVP with simply above-average power, largely because he didn’t lose any of his hitting prowess. His on-base percentage increased from .400 in 2012 to .404, and the only reason his batting average dropped from .327 to .317 was because his BABIP went from .375 to .353.

And based on how he actually hit balls, he probably didn’t deserve that. McCutchen‘s contact habits had never been more BABIP-friendly.

Using batted ball data from FanGraphs, here’s a chart:

Fly balls are bad for BABIP. Ground balls are better, but line drives are better still. What McCutchen did in 2013 was keep his fly-ball habit steady while trading in some ground balls for line drives.

You can also see that his LD% is on an upward trajectory, which is good. What’s more, Brooks Baseball can show that his LD/BIP (line drives per balls in play) in 2013 skyrocketed on hard, breaking and off-speed pitches. He was hitting everything on a line.

This will do for an encouraging trend. If McCutchen keeps it up, perhaps he’ll get a BABIP he deserves in 2014 and beyond. If not, he should at least be able to keep the hits coming as frequently as he did in 2013.

If there’s another thing that bears watching, it’s how McCutchen is being pitched and how he’s adjusting to how he’s being pitched. 

One thing to know about McCutchen is that he’s an outstanding fastball hitter, as Brooks Baseball says he owns a .318 career average and a .224 ISO (Isolated Power) against hard stuff. He’s also very good at making contact within the zone with a career Z-Contact% of 87.8 percent, according to FanGraphs.

As such, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that McCutchen has been seeing fewer fastballs and, not so coincidentally, fewer pitches in the strike zone:

McCutchen has certainly earned this kind of treatment. But as long as it keeps up, his plate discipline is going to be of paramount importance. He can’t let himself be beat by pitchers’ pitches.

To this end, things could be going worse. Here’s another chart:

Shown here are the amount of pitches outside the strike zone McCutchen is swinging at and how many he’s making contact with. One trend is that he’s been hacking away at more pitches outside the strike zone. In 2013, however, he made contact with more pitches outside the zone. And on those, Brooks Baseball can show that he did alright. 

While McCutchen did go after more pitchers’ pitches in 2013, he was good enough to make it worth his while. And besides, it’s not like he’s really developed a “problem” with hacking at pitches out of the zone. Because his O-Swing% in 2013 was 27.9 and the league average was 31.0, he still has better-than-average plate discipline. 

So McCutchen‘s power? Not as good as it was in 2012, but still there. His hitting? It was better than ever in 2012 and was at least as good, if not even better, in 2013.

Elsewhere, McCutchen shouldn’t be in danger of losing his physical prowess any time soon. Both his bat speed and his running speed should be sticking around for a few more years, which is good because he’ll need the latter to continue to come in handy on the basepaths and out in center field.

Whether or not McCutchen has another MVP in his future is something I can’t tell you. There are too many variables at work there. But he was an MVP-caliber player in 2012, was again in 2013, and there are few reasons to think he won’t be again and again and again.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Miguel Cabrera fought through the last month of the season and then the playoffs while dealing with an amorphously defined injury. The Tigers variously called it a hip, groin and abdomen issue during the season, then Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski announced that Cabrera had a Grade II or III groin strain.

According to Jason Beck of MLB.com, surgery performed Tuesday finally gives us clarity: Cabrera had a core muscle injury repaired.

Wait, what?

Dr. William Meyers is one of the top sports hernia doctors, having performed this surgery on many professional athletes including Josh Hamilton, Magglio Ordonez, Troy Tulowitzki and even the NFL’s Adrian Peterson. However, Dr. Meyers has made efforts over the past few years to change the nomenclature on his specialty, writing articles about how “core muscle injury” should be the preferred term. 

(Quick trivia question: What MLB doctor coined the term “sports hernia”? Dr. Tim Kremchek of the Reds, in an attempt to explain the injury simply.) 

For Cabrera, this is a normal and expected outcome. While the Tigers weren’t clear on the nomenclature, they clearly had a handle on the injury, even when Cabrera was refusing treatment and hiding the injury as best he could. He avoided doctors as long as he could, though one does have to wonder if earlier treatment might have made him more effective.

Probably not, given the need for surgery. As with the others who have had this surgery, there appear to be very solid results and very little in the way of recurrence after repair. As with most surgeries, it is done arthroscopically, giving a short recovery time of six to eight weeks. That means Cabrera will not only be ready for spring training, but he’s likely to have a near-normal offseason program.

Using some of the past surgical repairs, especially the ones done by Meyers, as a guide, there’s little reason to think there will be any drop-off for Cabrera. The sample size of this cohort is small, to be sure, since it’s a recent diagnosis, but even the top-end talents did not have major drop-offs. Of the ones who did, such as Hamilton, it’s hard to pin any of that on the surgery. 

Cabrera had lost both speed and power while dealing with the injury. His running in the playoffs wouldn’t have beaten a Molina, while his power was sapped as well. Even on homers, Cabrera was fooled. One homer in Oakland looked like a towering shot that would go deep into the O.co seats, but ended up a wall-scraper that made Cabrera quicken his trot a bit. Those should both be improved after surgery, though don’t expect him to be a speedster! 

I do want to be clear that even though there has been different nomenclature used, I don’t believe the Tigers were being deliberately misleading. Sometimes, the exact injury is not known until the player is opened up, and frankly, when managing an injury like this, the focus is on symptom relief, pain management and functional value, not differential diagnosis. 

Miguel Cabrera is at the top of his game. The 2013 Hank Aaron Award winner is one of the best hitters of this or any era, so keeping him at his peak is key for Tigers’ hopes to get back to the World Series. His surgery should help him get there. While another run at a Triple Crown isn’t likely, being healthy gives him a chance that few others will ever have.

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Sometimes the baseball gods just aren’t on your side. That certainly appears to be the case for Miguel Cabrera as he chases a second consecutive Triple Crown. 

The Detroit Tigers star has been hobbled, to say the least, by an ailing abdominal issue and some leg problems that have really sapped everything out of his offensive game. That really is too bad, because he was on pace to do something really special one year after winning the American League Most Valuable Player award. 

On the bright side, because his numbers and narrative are so strong, Cabrera will claim his second straight AL MVP trophy in November. But it is going to take a heroic, Babe Ruth-type effort for him to win another Triple Crown. 

With just two weeks to go, here is our fourth look at how things are shaking out for Cabrera in all three Triple Crown categories and how we expect him to finish. 

Not Your Average Hitter

In the first piece I wrote breaking down Cabrera’s Triple Crown chances, I basically said there was no way he was going to finish second in batting average. He had a 30-point lead over Mike Trout and was on cruise control. 

But as I learned, just because something looks like a foregone conclusion in baseball doesn’t mean it will happen. 

Cabrera has seen his average drop all the way down to .348 thanks in large part to a 3-for-22 start in September. It’s funny that we can talk about him in a slump and still hitting .348.

But even more surprising than Cabrera’s drop in average has been Trout’s hard-charging ways. The Los Angeles Angels star has been a one-man wrecking crew for that team all season, kicking things into another gear with a .360/.511/.564 slash line in the second half.  Those numbers have pushed his average up to .334 with 15 games left to play for both superstars.

However, playing devil’s advocate, let’s say that Cabrera plays 10 more games and maintains his average of 4.42 plate appearances per game. That gives him a total of about 44 more plate appearances before the end of the year. 

It is hard to predict what kind of average Cabrera could conceivably post given his physical limitations right now, but for the sake of argument, let’s put him somewhere in the .250 range for a total of 11 more hits. 

We will also keep his walk rate (13.9 percent) this season the same. That would give him six more walks, leaving 38 at-bats to play with. If we are going to keep him in the .250 range, Cabrera would get somewhere around nine more hits. 

Based on our calculations added to his current season total, Cabrera would finish the year with a .341 average (185-for-543). 

Since Trout is in about as healthy a player as he can be this deep into the season, we will say that he plays in all 15 games the Angels have left. Using his current average of 4.56 plate appearances per game, that will give him 73 more times in the batter’s box. 

Trout’s walk rate this season is 14.9 percent, meaning he will get a free pass 11 more times in 2013 with 62 at-bats to call his own. Since he is still healthy and at the top of his game, we can feel comfortable using his second-half batting average to calculate the number of hits he has left. 

Based on the .360 mark he’s posted since the All-Star Game, Trout will record 22 more hits. That puts his season average at .339 (203-for-595). 

Using this formula, which is far from iron-clad, Cabrera would still squeak by in the race for the batting average title. 

I am not quite ready to go far enough to say Trout will catch Cabrera. I can certainly envision a scenario where it happens because Trout is the best player in baseball and Cabrera isn’t in peak form. 

But 14 points is a lot of ground to make up with just 15 games to play. Even in the midst of his injury problems, Cabrera has only dropped 11 points in average since August 18. 

The Quintessential Run Producer

Another race that has gotten much tighter than anyone would have expected at the start of September is between Cabrera and Chris Davis for the RBI title. 

Cabrera’s lead has dwindled down to four, 133 to 129, over the last week. He came into the month with a 130 to 122 advantage, but even that felt bigger because Cabrera was playing every day in a lineup that features Austin Jackson (.348 OBP) and Torii Hunter (.331 OBP) hitting in front of him. 

Hitting in the middle of a really good lineup makes it that much easier to drive in runs, and Cabrera took full advantage of his opportunities. 

But thanks to sparse playing time, especially at the beginning of September, Davis has been able to play catch-up. He’s not exactly lighting the world on fire, with seven RBIs all month, but all of them have come in the last six games. 

Davis and Cabrera have 15 games remaining. Cabrera still has the advantage in this category down the stretch, but not because of anything he is doing. 

It’s been an uphill battle for Davis in the second half of the season. He’s still hitting well with a .261/.355/.537 line since the break, but that pales in comparison to the .315/.392/.717 mark he put up before the All-Star Game. 

Another problem that Davis faces is his innate ability to strike out. Even when he was hitting well in the first half, the swing-and-miss elements of his game were still prevalent with 110 in 343 at-bats. 

That issue has only gotten worse in the second half, as Davis has racked up 69 strikeouts in 188 at-bats. Combine that with the fact that the players hitting in front of him (Nate McLouth, Manny Machado and, at times, Brian Roberts) have posted a .311 OBP since the All-Star break. 

As long as Cabrera plays enough, like the 10 games we penciled him in for, that should be enough to get his RBI total up to 140 given the talent around him in Detroit’s lineup. 

If that happens, Davis would need at least 13 to overtake the lead. The slugger hasn’t had a stretch of 13 RBI in 16 games since the middle of August. No, it’s not that long ago in normal times, but in baseball terms, one month is an eternity. 

The walls are closing in around Cabrera, but the lead is still big enough and the lineup around him is better that I assume he will come out ahead in this race. 

Power Outage

Cabrera started to close the gap on Davis in home runs when September started, getting within four, 47 to 43. Yet as soon as I mentioned that in last week’s breakdown, Davis hit a home run in a series against the White Sox to stretch his lead back to six. 

This is an instance where I feel much more comfortable saying that the race is over. Cabrera needs at least six home runs in 16 games if Davis doesn’t homer again this year. Miggy has hit 13 home runs in the entire second half. 

Using the formula we created for Cabrera in the batting average race against Trout, he will have 38 at-bats to get those six home runs. For non-mathematicians out there, that translates to one homer every 6.3 at-bats. 

Even factoring in small sample sizes and random anomalies, Cabrera isn’t going to hit that many home runs. 

It’s not impossible. In fact, Cabrera has had two stretches this season that were actually much better than that, but both of them came when he was in peak physical condition. 

Miggy actually had six home runs in a four-game stretch from May 19-23, including that three-homer game against Texas on May 19. He also hit six home runs in an eight-game period covering 31 at-bats from June 25-July 2. 

But you have to factor in a player’s health, especially at this stage of the game. The Tigers have no reason to push Cabrera more than he is capable of because they are going to play in October. 

As nice as the narrative of Cabrera winning another Triple Crown would be, this team is built to win a World Series. It needs him in the middle of their lineup and as close to 100 percent as possible to get there. 

It also hurts that Davis probably isn’t going to end the season at 49 home runs.

Here are some of the pitchers he’s scheduled to face with their season total in innings and homers allowed:

Playing in the Rogers Centre and Camden Yards, two very good offensive parks, and Fenway which is one of the smallest parks down the right- and left-field lines, it seems like a stretch to say that 49 will be Davis’ final total. 

We also have to factor in the remaining schedule that Cabrera has, including how the parks play for home runs and offense. 

There are not a lot of favorable parks in there for Cabrera. He has mastered the art of hitting at Comerica, so that isn’t a huge problem. But Seattle, Minnesota and Miami are three of baseball’s worst parks for hitters. 

Combine that with the deficit Cabrera faces in the home run chase, and his odds are as long as they have ever been. 

It’s an unfortunate situation for him, as he has spent so much time baffling us with his hitting prowess, but as long as we get to see him in October, it seems like a fair trade to say he will “only” finish first in two of the three mainstream offensive categories. 

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me on Twitter with questions or comments. 

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We have reached zero hour on Miguel Cabrera‘s quest for a second consecutive Triple Crown. It was in September last year when the Detroit Tigers superstar made his charge up the ladder to make history, but this season appears to be a different story. 

Due to lingering abdominal and leg issues, Cabrera has sat out four of the last five games. The one game he did play was on Wednesday against Boston where he went 0-for-4 with one strikeout. 

The full extent of Cabrera’s injuries is unknown. MLB.com reported that manager Jim Leyland said after Wednesday’s game that his star was still sore and “I can’t tell you when he’s going to play.”

But even with the missed time, Cabrera is still very much in the running for the Triple Crown this season. He still leads the American League in batting average (.355) and RBIs (130) and trails Baltimore’s Chris Davis by four home runs (47 to 43). 

Time is slipping away from Cabrera, so let’s take another look at his quest to make history once again. 

Better Than Average

Cabrera’s always been a great natural hitter, but something has been different with him this year. He took what already came easy to him and made it seem even simpler, at least when he was in peak physical condition. 

He has gone from being supernatural in the first half to merely ridiculously good in the second half.

Before the All-Star break, Cabrera was slashing at .368/.458/.674 with 30 home runs and 95 RBI in 362 at-bats. Those numbers have “slipped” to .328/.408/.680 with 13 home runs, 35 RBI in 125 at-bats. 

Putting some semblance of pressure on Cabrera in the batting average race is Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout. The 22-year-old stud has put together a monster second half to push his average up to .335. He’s still 20 points behind Miggy, but things are a lot closer than anyone expected. 

In fact, let’s take a look at the month-to-month average trends for Cabrera and Trout this season.

The problem for Cabrera is not that he has fallen apart—his worst average of .288 would be the best month for a lot of players—but Trout is on fire. 

Since the break, Trout is slashing at .370/.511/.596 with 16 extra-base hits in 146 at-bats. But is there enough time to catch Cabrera?

As of Friday, the Tigers have 22 games left and the Angels have 23 to play. Let’s say Trout plays all of those games, which would translate to roughly 105 plate appearances using his average per game in 2013. 

Since we also have to factor in Trout’s walk rate, which would equate to 15 walks in 105 plate appearances, that gives him 90 more at-bats. He would have to record 41 more hits to reach the .355 mark. 

However, it becomes difficult to say whether that total will hold because of where Cabrera and the Tigers are right now. The team is going to clinch the American League Central sometime within the next two weeks, I would venture to guess. 

Given Cabrera’s health and his importance to the team in the postseason, how much does Leyland actually play him? (Just to save time, know that this is a question that will be taken into account throughout the rest of this piece.)

If we say Cabrera plays half of the remaining games (11), averaging the same number of plate appearances (4.45), that would give him roughly 49 more at-bats.

Again factoring in Cabrera’s walk rate, he would get seven more walks leaving him 42 more at-bats. Using his second half average of .328, Miggy would record approximately 14 more hits. His season numbers would be 187-for-529 (.353). 

Cabrera is going to win this race. As great as Trout is and has been, that gap is just too wide with too little time left to play. 

The RBI Machine

One of the benefits of hitting in the No. 3 spot behind Austin Jackson (.346 OBP) and Torii Hunter (.335) is that there are going to be plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Even with the injury bug biting him, Cabrera’s RBI rate per at-bat has actually gotten a little better in the second half (3.8 at-bats per RBI in the first half, 3.5 in the second half). 

Despite missing four of the last five games, Cabrera still leads Davis in RBIs, 130 to 122. Davis’ performance has dropped considerably since the All-Star break. He’s put up a .248/.349/.510 line with 10 home runs and 29 RBI in the second half.

That’s not a huge surprise because as much as Davis has improved his approach and walk rate, he still has too much swing and miss to remain a .300 hitter all year. That second-half slash line is more in line with what we should expect from him moving forward, which is still very good but not otherworldly. 

Davis’ RBI rate has dropped from 3.7 before the break to 5.4 in the second half. It also hurts his chances that Brian Roberts (.311 OBP) and Manny Machado (.323 OBP, .292 in the second half) are hitting in front of him. 

Even with Cabrera not playing four of the last five games and going hitless in the one game he did play, Davis hasn’t moved any closer in the RBI race because he hasn’t driven anyone in since August 30 and he’s played every game for the Orioles since that time.

Supposing Cabrera does play in just 11 more games, with 42 more at-bats and using his second half RBI rate, he would finish the season with 142 RBI. 

That would force Davis to drive in 21 more runs to win the RBI crown this year. The Orioles have 23 games left, meaning the star first baseman would need to drive in one run every 4.1 at-bats based on the number of plate appearances he gets per game (4.2) and factoring in his walk rate (10.7 percent). 

With Roberts and Machado not getting on base in front of him, it is hard to see Davis having enough time to catch up with Cabrera. It also doesn’t help that Davis has fallen off in the second half. 

No one else is close to Cabrera. Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion is third in the American League with 103 RBIs. 

Once again, this is Cabrera’s title to lose and no one else seems to have the momentum to catch him. 

Can You Feel the Power?

The one category that Cabrera can’t seem to break through this year is home runs. Even with Davis’ problems in the second half, he’s still slugging over .500 and seems to answer the call when Cabrera gets close to him. 

With only four home runs separating them, Cabrera is as close to Davis as he has been since the end of June. Davis has had ample opportunities to get more breathing room in this battle with Cabrera not playing but is having issues driving the ball. 

Since the start of August, Davis’ isolated power (ISO), which measures all extra-base hits divided by at-bats, is just .152. To put that in perspective, Nate McClouth’s season ISO is .143. 

Davis hasn’t homered since August 28 and has just three since August 14. Cabrera, despite the injury woes, has managed to hit five home runs during that same period. 

Even with his issues since the break, Davis isn’t going to stay at 47 home runs the rest of the year. It is hard to predict where he will end up because he has been so cold the last two weeks, but we know that with his raw strength a stretch of five home runs in a 10-game stretch is not out of the question. 

Davis is on pace to hit 55 home runs. If he gets anywhere near that total, then Cabrera has no shot to catch him because the Tigers aren’t going to play him enough to hit 12-13 more home runs. 

Let’s say, hypothetically, Davis winds up in with an even 50 homers at the end of the season. That means Cabrera is going to need seven more to tie and eight to outright win the home run title. 

Based on my formula where Cabrera plays about half of Detroit’s remaining games with 42 more at-bats left, which I admit might be a little on the conservative side, he would have to hit one homer every six at-bats to reach 50. His season average is one homer every 11.3 at-bats. 

Given the physical limitations for Cabrera right now, coming up with a scenario where he is able to cut his HR/AB ratio nearly in half seems far-fetched. 

We can also take a look at Cabrera’s remaining schedule and how he has fared this season and in his career against the teams he will face down the stretch. 

The schedule does not set up very well for Cabrera. He has to play in a lot of big ball parks (Kansas City, Seattle, Minnesota, Miami) to end the year. 

With all those factors taken into consideration, even with a narrow gap in the home run race, Cabrera faces a steep uphill climb to become the first player in history to win the Triple Crown in consecutive seasons. 

Davis has the added benefit of playing in Oriole Park, which is very hitter friendly, as well as the Rogers Centre in Toronto and Fenway Park. He will, however, be going up against better pitching staffs like Tampa Bay and Boston 10 more times. 

I don’t put anything past Cabrera because he just seems to get better as a hitter with age. But the Tigers have far bigger things to worry about than another Triple Crown for Cabrera. Miggy may not have enough opportunities to catch Davis. 

If you want to debate the Triple Crown, or anything else baseball related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions or comments.

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The 2013 Detroit Tigers are a month away from postseason baseball, an excellent bet to repeat as American League champions and a marquee attraction for Major League Baseball’s broadcasting plan down the stretch of the season.

Part of that allure: Star power.

From Justin Verlander to Prince Fielder to Torii Hunter, the current version of the Detroit Tigers are one of the most recognizable groups in recent memory.

When the 2013 season awards are rolled out in early November, they might add some hardware, along with a possible World Series title, to their showcase.

For the first time in the history of the sport, a team could house the league MVP, Cy Young winner and Rookie of the Year. Before you scoff at the notion of the trifecta, consider the claims to the awards by Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer and Jose Iglesias, respectively.

First, of course, resides Miguel Cabrera atop the sport and the American League. While a very, very good argument can be made that Mike Trout is baseball’s best all-around player, Cabrera is a virtual lock for the league MVP.

Despite the unlikelihood of a Triple Crown repeat, Cabrera has been significantly better in 2013 than 2012. His OPS, OPS-plus, home run, RBI, and strikeout-to-walk numbers are all either superior or in line to surpass the MVP campaign of 2012. Despite the greatness of Mike Trout, it’s hard to imagine the same writers who voted Cabrera last season having a change of heart when he’s improved.

Furthermore, the notion of giving the award to a player on a winning team fits Cabrera again. While Mike Trout’s team is headed for another season without October baseball, Cabrera’s Tigers are on the path to the postseason.

On the mound, Scherzer has surpassed 2011 MVP/Cy Young winner Justin Verlander as the current ace of Jim Leyland’s staff. While his 19-1 record may hearken back to old-school Cy Young voting and archaic thinking, his peripheral numbers, or, in other words, the numbers that actually matter when valuing individual players, work in his favor as well.

With apologies to Yu Darvish and Chris Sale, the AL Cy Young battle looks to be a two-horse battle between Seattle‘s Felix Hernandez and Scherzer.

If Scherzer‘s gaudy win total (19 to 12) was all that separated him from the former Cy Young winner, the possibility of all three awards in the Motor City would be far-fetched. A quick look at the numbers shows a very close battle, with Detroit’s star earning the upper hand.

While Felix now leads in Fangraphs‘ WAR (5.8-5.4) and innings pitched (194.1-183.1), Scherzer is sporting a lower ERA (2.90-3.01) and a higher K/9 rate (9.87-9.26).

With Scherzer two starts behind (29-27), pitching Tuesday and Hernandez leaving Monday’s start with back cramps, according to MLB.com, there’s an excellent chance that Hernandez’s lead in total WAR and innings thrown won’t be there by the end of September.

Although wins and losses aren’t the deciding factor in Cy Young voting any longer, it’s hard to believe the voters won’t side with Scherzer if he leads or is tied in WAR, innings, ERA and K/9 along with a seven win advantage on their personal ledgers.

Lastly, the American League Rookie of the Year race is, well, dull.

Using Fangraphs‘ WAR, the top five this season pale in comparison to their famous National League counterparts: Cleveland‘s Yan Gomes, Kansas City‘s David Lough, Iglesias, Seattle’s Danny Farquhar and Tampa Bay‘s Wil Myers.

Meanwhile, the NL features this top five: Miami’s Jose Fernandez, Los Angeles’ Yasiel Puig, Colorado‘s Nolan Arenado, New York’s Juan Lagares and Los Angeles’ Hyun-jin Ryu.

When the Tigers traded for Igesias in July, they were proactively filling a hole left by the impending Jhonny Peralta suspension. Now, through the merits of outstanding defense, an above-average OPS-plus and a lackluster rookie class, they might have the American League Rookie of the Year on their hands.

The 2013 Detroit Tigers are on the path to becoming the most decorated team in baseball history.

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Miguel Cabrera is one month away from possibly joining the likes of Nap Lajoie, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Chuck Klein and Carl Yastrzemski.

If all goes according plan, Cabrera will join the five Hall of Famers as the only players in MLB history to win the “Sextuple Crown,” according to Ted Berg of USA Today.

What is the “Sextuple Crown?” It means leading the league in average, home runs, RBI, hits, slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

With September nearly upon us, Cabrera leads his league in every one of those categories besides home runs. He sits three home runs back of Orioles slugger Chris Davis, but he’s swiftly closing that gap. Cabrera has 13 home runs to Davis’ nine since the All-Star Break, and Davis’ numbers seem to suggest he’s seeing fewer pitches to drive with more exposure to the league.

Cabrera’s leads in batting average, on-base percentage, and RBI appear insurmountable. Davis sits within striking distance in slugging percentage, and a few guys could catch Cabrera in hits—especially if the Tigers start giving him regular rest once they clinch the AL Central.

The question is, can Cabrera win in all six categories?

The Stats/Schedule

Before we go any further, it’s important to look at the stats:

As of Tuesday, it seems Cabrera has average and on-base percentage. He also has a decent lead in slugging and RBI.

However, he’s only ahead of Adrian Beltre by four hits and is trailing Chris Davis by three home runs. If Cabrera’s run for the crown were halted, it would likely be in one of those two categories.

So let’s look at the the rest of the schedule for Cabrera, Beltre and Davis. While starting pitchers will be different, each player’s schedule will have a lot to say about who will come out on top in those categories.

The home run aspect is hit or miss. Davis has hit nine home runs since the All-Star break, while Cabrera has hit 13 home runs. It would seem Cabrera is hitting with more power and could overtake Davis by year’s end.

All Miggy has to do is hit three more home runs than Davis over the last month and that stat category will be his. But again, it all depends on pitching matchups.

When looking at ESPN’s team pitching stats, Beltre could have the advantage in getting more hits as he’ll face teams ranked No. 1 (Houston), No. 2 (Minnesota) and No. 5 (Angels) in hits allowed for a total of 12 games. Cabrera has games against teams ranked No. 2 (Minnesota), No. 7 (Seattle) and No. 14 (Boston) for a total of nine games.

Beltre does have seven games against the two toughest teams to get hits off of (Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay).

Since the break, Beltre has 48 hits compared to 38 for Cabrera. That could come into play as well.

Prediction

When looking at the numbers and the remaining schedule, I don’t think Cabrera will win in all six categories. More than likely, he’ll win five and miss out on hits.

The Texas Rangers are in a tighter race in the AL West than the Detroit Tigers are in the AL Central. Cabrera could get a few games of rest down the stretch, while Beltre will likely be playing every day.

While he won’t win in all six categories, Cabrera should still win his second straight Triple Crown. He’s already ahead in average and RBI, and if he can continue hitting home runs, he’ll overtake Davis for that by season’s end.

Even with only five category wins, Cabrera should still be easily named the AL MVP.

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Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter on the planet and is in a league of his own this season.

There’s no reason the Detroit Tigers should keep him out of the lineup the next couple weeks.

Cabrera has been forced to miss eight games this season due to various injuries and pundits have debated whether the Tigers should give the defending Triple Crown and MVP winner a few days off down the stretch.

But you cannot justify sitting down the best hitter in baseball during the most crucial stretch of the season.

The last time Cabrera missed a game was Aug. 3.

Since then, he’s batted .359 with a .433 on-base percentage, 11 home runs and 31 RBI in 92 at-bats through 23 games.

The Tigers have gone 14-9 in that span, with seven of those wins coming by two runs or less.

Detroit is only 5.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Indians with 31 games left in the season, and the American League Central race is far from over.

Detroit, Cleveland and the Kansas City Royals are all above .500 this season and the Tigers play Cleveland and Kansas City a combined nine more times this season. The Tigers are also entrenched in a tough series with the Oakland Athletics and have the first-place Boston Red Sox looming.

The Tigers are 7-1 without Cabrera in the lineup this season, but he’s shown that he can continue to dominate despite small, lingering issues that may be bothering him day-to-day.

Cabrera at 70 percent is a much better option than anyone else at the hot corner at 100 percent.

Detroit does not want to have to travel to Tampa Bay or Boston this postseason in search of back-to-back World Series berths. It needs to lock up the best record in the AL and ensure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Among AL teams, the Tigers have the second-best record at home this season at 41-24, but away from Comerica Park, the Tigers are 36-30.

If you take out Cabrera, who makes everyone around him better, there is a gaping hole opened in the middle of the lineup.

I agree that the Tigers should sit him for a game or two if he wants—if they have home field locked up with a few games to go in the regular season—but not a minute before that is ensured.

Cabrera is too valuable to be watching games in September from the bench.

Play him.

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With just over one month left in the regular season, Miguel Cabrera‘s quest for a second consecutive Triple Crown is still very much alive but not quite as strong as it appeared the last time we checked in on the chase.

Cabrera enters play on Friday leading all of baseball in batting average (.354) and RBI (123), while trailing Baltimore’s Chris Davis in home runs (46 to 40). 

Time is running out for Cabrera in the home run chase with just 35 games to go, but we have learned over the last decade to never underestimate what the reigning AL MVP can do with a bat in his hands. 

As we count down the final days of the season, I wanted to do a follow up on an article I wrote a few weeks ago breaking down the chances of Cabrera winning another Triple Crown by examining where he stands in all three categories and the competition around him. 

Not Your Average Hitter

What we said before:

If there was ever a trophy for winning the batting average title, the company that makes it should just start engraving Cabrera’s name on the plaque because that championship isn’t going anywhere. 

What we say now:

Cabrera’s lead in the batting average race has actually decreased by nine points in the time since our initial breakdown. Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout remains in second place with a .333 average, 21 points behind the Tigers slugger. 

It’s amazing that Trout’s season is (sadly) getting overlooked because the Angels are so bad and Cabrera started the year by putting up video game numbers. But Trout has been the superior hitter in the second half, and it isn’t that close. 

Since the All-Star break, Cabrera has hit .316/.404/.684. That is an incredible slash line, one almost any player in baseball would love to have. Yet Trout has been surging, putting up a .374/.530/.606 line in 134 plate appearances. 

Let’s say, hypothetically, Cabrera and Trout keep up their respective second half performances through the end of the year. We can calculate what the batting averages for both would be using their average number of at-bats per game and doing some simple multiplication. 

Using those stats, Cabrera would have 204 hits in 591 at-bats (.345) to Trout’s 208 hits in 607 at-bats (.343). 

This race that looked to be over as recently as early August just got a lot more interesting. 

However, this isn’t an exact science. Baseball is nothing if not fickle. Cabrera could go on a week-long tear where he hits .500 over the course of 32 plate appearances to push his average back into the .360 range, or Trout could go hitless in three straight games and see his average drop under .330. 

I think Trout is such a good hitter that he will make this race much closer than any of us thought it would be two weeks ago, but Cabrera’s lead is still so big that it would take a collapse the likes of which we have never seen from him to relinquish the crown. 

Let’s Hit With Men On Base

What we said before (Davis was ahead of Cabrera at the time):

Given the depth of their respective lineups, as well as the types of hitters they are, Cabrera has a great chance to catch and surpass Davis in this category. 

What we say now:

As expected, thanks to where Cabrera hits in the Tigers lineup and who hits in front of him, the Tigers star has taken a lead in the RBI race with 123 to Davis’ 116. It is still too close to proclaim things over, but Cabrera holds a plus-nine edge over Davis in this category since we last checked in on things. 

One problem Cabrera faces trying to keep his lead is injury. As the season has worn on, the 2012 MVP has seen his body start to break down. Things haven’t been so severe that a trip to the DL is in order, but a bad hip and leg have certainly taken their toll. 

Even saying that, I see the highlight of Cabrera hitting a home run off Mariano Rivera after fouling two pitches off his leg and wonder what it takes to slow him down. 

Assuming he doesn’t miss time with injuries piling up, the pace he has kept up this season is incredible, and also speaks well of the hitters in front of him. Even during his second half “slide” (said with tongue planted firmly in cheek), Cabrera has driven in 28 runs in 25 games. 

As long as Cabrera plays enough, he’s going to win the RBI title again. He hits third in a lineup with Austin Jackson (.339 OBP) and Torii Hunter (.340 OBP) ahead of him. 

By comparison, Davis hits third in a lineup with Nate McClouth (.340 OBP) and Manny Machado (.324 OBP, .281 in the second half). The opportunities for him to drive in runs aren’t going to be as prevalent, meaning he has to take advantage of every chance in order to keep the pace with Cabrera. 

After Davis, there’s no one close to Cabrera in the RBI race. Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion is third in the AL with 93. 

Show Me Your Power

What we said before:

Given his current pace, Davis is on track to hit 57 home runs. If he hits that pace, Cabrera has no shot because he isn’t hitting 25 more home runs this season. As great as he is, that’s one every two games, or one every 7.8 at-bats. 

 

What we say now:

In my previous article, I pondered whether Davis would be able to keep up this home-run pace given that he was having problems making contact early in the second half (25 strikeouts in 64 at-bats). 

A few weeks later, Davis has added six homers to his season total. Unlike Cabrera, who is easy to predict as a hitter because he’s been so consistent throughout his career, Davis is a wild card. 

Prior to this season, no one knew exactly what Davis was. He came up in Texas with a reputation for having a ton of power but not making enough contact to let it play in games. He finally got a chance to play every day with Baltimore in 2012, hitting 33 home runs with 169 strikeouts in 515 at-bats. 

This year, while the strikeouts are still piling up (152 in 454 at-bats), Davis’ approach changed just enough that he is walking more and driving pitches he can get a hold of. But he still has those streaky tendencies you will find with big power-high strikeout players. 

For instance, after the All-Star break, Davis went 10 straight games without hitting a home run. 

But time is running out for Cabrera to make a push for another home run title. He is six behind Davis with 35 games left to play.

How do you make up that many homers in such a short amount of time?

Davis is still on pace to hit 59 home runs, meaning Cabrera would have to hit at least 19 more to tie for the league lead. That’s an average of one homer every 1.84 games played. That’s not going to happen, I don’t care how good Cabrera is. 

Using Cabrera’s current rate of one home run every 11.4 at-bats and the formula we used earlier to calculate his remaining at-bats, he is on pace to hit 12 more homers for a season total of 52. 

Under that circumstance, Davis can only hit six more homers for Cabrera to finish with a share of the lead. But Davis is hitting home runs every 9.9 at-bats, so it would take at least one more serious slump for Cabrera to catch him. 

On top of that, Davis and Cabrera have homered on the same day 14 times this year. Just when it looks like Cabrera is going to put a dent in that lead, Davis answers with a shot of his own. 

I think this is the category where Cabrera is going to fall short because Davis has been so good at matching him homer-for-homer and there just isn’t enough time to make up the difference between the two. 

Strength of Schedule

Since things don’t tend to be as black and white as we like to think, like Davis’ advantage in the home-run chase, it is important to examine the types of teams and pitchers Cabrera will be facing down the stretch. 

Here is a look at what Cabrera and the Tigers have coming over the next five weeks, as well as Miggy’s stats against those teams in his career and this season:

Another problem that Cabrera will face in the final month of the season is where they are playing. A lot of those games are in bigger parks that aren’t always conducive to hitting home runs (New York, Oakland, Kansas City, Minnesota and Miami). 

On the flip side, though, there is a lot of mediocre pitching coming Cabrera’s way. Chicago, Cleveland and Boston are middle of the pack, while Minnesota and Seattle are well below average. 

Davis faces a number of good teams down the stretch (Oakland, Boston, New York, Cleveland, Tampa Bay), but with the exception of a series at Oakland doesn’t really have to deal with pitcher-friendly parks. 

The worst hitter’s park Davis will play in the remainder of the season after Oakland, as far as hitting home runs, is Fenway Park, one of the smallest stadiums in baseball which ranks 22nd with 0.894 per game. Everything else is ranked in the top half of baseball, according to ESPN.com.

All of this is to say that both Cabrera and Davis are going to find it difficult to add to their respective home run totals, but for very different reasons. 

And The Results Are…

It just goes to show how arbitrary something like the Triple Crown really is, and why you don’t see it happen more often. 

Cabrera is having, in every conceivable way, a better year in 2013 than he did when winning the Triple Crown and AL MVP in 2012.

His batting average is 24 points higher, he’s getting on base at a significantly higher rate (.447 to .393), slugging 70 points higher (.676 to .606), is going to finish with more home runs and RBI than he did last year but is still a long shot to win another Triple Crown because someone has been a little bit better. 

At least Cabrera can rest easy at night knowing the Tigers will go back to the playoffs with a great chance to make the World Series and because of the narrative already built around him that a second consecutive MVP award is all but guaranteed. 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me on Twitter with questions or comments. 

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