Kuzul

Let’s take a look at three player’s whose stock rose yesterday, as well as three players whose stock took a hit:

Three Up:

1. Danny Espinoza – Shortstop – Washington Nationals
   To say that he’s gotten his Major League career off with a bang would be an understatement.  He had a strong showing in the Minor Leagues, splitting time between Double and Triple-A (.268, 22 HR, 69 RBI, 80 R, 25 SB), and opened up going 5-11 with one HR prior to Monday’s game.  That’s when he exploded, going 4-5 with two HR, six RBI and two R, including a grand slam against the Mets.  He has the potential to be the Nationals second baseman (or shortstop) of the future and it’s likely that he gets regular AB down the stretch over Adam Kennedy.  At this point, how can they keep him out of the lineup?  Be careful, as he posted a 24.1 percent strikeout rate in the minor leagues, so there is a potential for him to struggle in the average department.  With his potential combination of power (which he’s already shown) and speed (which he has yet to have an opportunity to display), however, he is worth taking a flyer on for the final few weeks if you need a middle infielder.  We’ll be taking a closer look at him in the next few days as well.
2. Mike Stanton – Outfielder- Florida Marlins
   He had struggled for a long time, not just with the long ball either.  Forget about the fact that he had one home run since August 14.  Over that span he had gone 7-66, likely causing many owners to shove him over to their bench.  However, those who stayed patient were rewarded yesterday as he went deep in both halves of the Marlins double header.  For the day, he went 4-9 with two HR, four RBI and two R and hopefully can keep this hot streak going over the final few weeks of the season.  He has too much power to give up on, so just continue to keep him active and hope for the best.
3. Adalberto Mendez – Starting Pitcher – Florida Marlins
   It was an impressive Major League debut, tossing six innings of one-hit baseball against the Philadelphia Phillies to get the victory.  The thing is, he had been spending time as both a starter and reliever at Triple-A (only nine starts in 28 appearances), pitching to a 4.14 ERA.  As a starter, he had a 4.46 ERA with 39 Ks over 40.1 innings.  Over that span he walked 3.7 batters per nine innings, as well.  In other words, while it was an extremely impressive debut, I wouldn’t be running out to claim him on waivers quite yet.

Three Down:

1. Mike Pelfrey – Starting Pitcher – New York Mets
   It had looked like he had righted the ship, but things have once again fallen off for Pelfrey.  After allowing six ER on five H and three BB, striking out one, over 3.2 innings he has given up 10 ER over 8.2 IP in his last two outings.  You want to believe that he’s worth using, given how tremendous he was early in the season, but it’s just impossible to trust him.  His next start comes against the Phillies, who he has a 4.50 ERA against in three starts, and should be on your bench in all formats.
2. Jeff Niemann – Starting Pitcher – Tampa Bay Rays
   Remember when Niemann was among the best pitchers in the league?  In fact, at the All-Star Break he was 7-2 with a 2.77 ERA.  There was a lot of luck involved and things have certainly gone the other way.  Since returning from the DL it has been one debacle after another.  He’s gone 10.0 innings, allowing 23 ER and is now in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation.  If you are in need of a roster spot, he’s certainly eligible to be cut at this point.
3. Mat Latos – Starting Pitcher – San Diego Padres
   A tough break for fantasy owners, as Latos was scratched from his scheduled start last night due to a bout with the flu.  He is expected to take the ball on Tuesday, so let’s hope that’s the case.  If he does, he will remain in line to be a two-start option, though with extremely more difficult matchups.  Today he will draw Clayton Kershaw, with Tim Lincecum going up against him on Sunday.

What are your thoughts on these players?  Who else had a significant change in value from yesterday’s games?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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The NL-Central boasts a few great pickups this week and one real surprise Sit ‘Em candidate.  While there is great outfield help abound, a couple could use some rest on your bench. 

Low-percentage owned pitchers rounds out the help in this week’s fantasy baseball forecast.  Congratulations to those of you who followed last week’s advice in starting Neil Walker and sitting Dexter Fowler.

Start ‘Em

Jonny Gomes | Cincinnati Reds | 36.1 percent

He hasn’t been as hot as he was before the All-Star break, but Gomes might be able to find a spark this week against some weak pitching and playing in hitter-friendly parks. 

His lifetime stats at Coors field include a .409 average and three home runs in 22 at-bats.  Against the four starters for Colorado, Gomes is hitting .474 with five home runs in 19 at-bats for his career.  He’s also hitting .310 with two home runs through 29 career at-bats against the Pittsburgh starters.

Colby Rasmus | St. Louis Cardinals | 78.7 percent

Look for the newly disgruntled Cardinal to have a great week.  Against Atlanta this year  Colby is hitting .600 in ten at-bats with one home run. 

His bigger strength though, is hitting against the Brewers.  This year against the Brewers Colby is hitting .393 with a .514 OBP and three home runs in 28 at-bats.  Also, all of Colby’s games are away games this week, in which he’s hitting .305 (79 points higher than at home).

Sit  ‘Em

Luke Scott | Baltimore Orioles | 96.7 percent
One of the streakier players in baseball, Scott is headed for…

Click here to continue >>>>

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Please be sure to check out Mets Paradise and our forum for everything Mets!!!

—–

If I had to sum up the Mets’ 2010 season so far in one word, it would be enigmatic. The season has been full of enigmas. How can the Mets play so well at home but so dreadful on the road? How can the Mets play so well in May and June, but so badly in July and August? How is it that Jason Bay a consistent 30-plus HR, 100 RBI player, can just be lost at the plate? Where did this Angel Pagan player come from? R.A. Dickey? These are all very puzzling events from the season, however, I think the one of the more intriguing enigmatic stories of 2010 is Mike Pelfrey. 

Pelfrey started the season looking like the 1A the Mets needed and expected him to be when they drafted Pelfrey with the ninth overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft out of Wichita State. Pelfrey started out the season 9-1 with a 2.39 ERA. Since Pelfrey won his 10th game (Note: All the following stats are excluding Pelfrey’s most recent start), he clearly hasn’t been the same. Since Pelfrey won that 10th game on June 25th, he is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA. In only one of those games, Pelfrey managed to get out of the fifth inning. After looking at some splits, I saw some eye opening stats. Pelfrey, in his first 14 appearances (13 starts and one save), had a BAA (Batting Average Against) of .246, a BAbip (Batting Average of balls in play) of .281, a Swinging Strike rate of 17 percent, and threw about 15 pitches per innings.

**Read the rest…**

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It seemed as if Drew Goodman was intentionally taunting Rockies fans all night long.

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The Mets have an uncanny ability to not rise to the occasion.

Good teams find ways to win and bad teams, like the Mets, find ways to lose. Although, Mets fans can’t pretend they didn’t know this was coming. 

In probably the most important game so far this year (in terms of attempting to make the rest of August relevant) the Mets never showed up. They did not field (four errors including three infield errors in one inning), they did not hit (per usual), and of course they did not pitch (Mike Pelfrey was on the mound).

Pelf has been awful since his stellar start.

I mean he has been beyond awful. At no point in his last few starts has he given the Mets anything to work with. It seems like every time he steps onto the rubber the Mets have already spotted the other team at least three runs. The Amazins will have to score runs to stay in the game, something they can’t really do.

Jerry Manuel deserves his share of blame. Let’s jump to the fifth inning…two outs, men on the corners with Brian McCann at the plate, who at that point was lifetime 14-33 against Pelfrey, and Manuel decides to leave his struggling starter on the mound. McCann of course doubled and effectively ended the Mets’ season.

This team was flat out not ready to play. Even golden boy David Wright flopped. He has this new thing about sidearm throwing to second which cost the Mets an all important double play. Jose Reyes look unfocused committing two errors himself.

In fact, the only Mets player who looked ready to play was Luis Castillo and that is not a good thing.

Now, as a Mets fan, you learn to never give up because, well life as a Mets fan is spent with the odds stacked against you. We have Phillies next, then Colorado, and the Phillies again after that. That is no easy schedule, but of course there is always hope.

We have to win each series and hope the Braves lose. There is no more room for games like last night. If the Mets want to play games that matter in August and September (forget October), then they have to win now. 

With another disappointing winter staring the Mets in the face, they have to turn it around today.

Will they? Of course not, it’s the Mets.

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In fantasy baseball, we use statistics all day, everyday. But a surprisingly high number of managers tend to ignore some fundamental statistics generated by the Society for Baseball Research. Get to know a new Sabermetric each week in this new series. This week we’re looking at BABIP.

B atting A verage on B alls In P lay = (Hits – Home Runs) / (At Bats – Strikeouts – Home Runs + Sacrifice Flies)

The purpose of B atting A verage on B alls In P lay, BABIP, is to add a luck factor which can be used when evaluating players previous production. BABIP is a ratio of plate appearances to the numbers of balls put into play. The result is a ratio similar to batting average. However, it is measured on a scale which removes home runs and strikeouts. By removing home runs and strikeouts, BABIP measures the numbers of times which a hit fell when a defender had the opportunity to make a play on it.  If we agree that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run, then BABIP shows us how lucky or unlucky a player is based on their deviation from the mean.

This statistic can be used with both pitchers and hitters, but it has been found to be much more useful in regards to pitching. For hitters, BABIP can be influenced by skill much more than luck.  A hitter has the ability to run out infield singles and shoot gaps to influence BABIP. But in the case of a pitcher who faces many different hitters, BABIP will fall gravitate to a mean. Research has found that the mean for BABIP is around .300 and the conclusion can be drawn that anyone with a higher BABIP is unlucky (lucky/good for hitters) .. .lower than .300 and you’re lucky (unlucky/bad for hitters).

When evaluating pitching, BABIP can be used to explain other statistics like standard ERA and WHIP. A high BABIP is generally a sign that a pitcher will improve upon their previous production. The higher BABIP means that more hits are falling which have a negative impact on ERA and WHIP. But we expect BABIP to be around .300. and in order for that to take place, we expect a regression to bring the average to the mean. So to get to .300, there will be a period of low BABIP to account for the higher BABIP in the past.

Lets look at some examples

How bad was Mike Pelfrey in July? Well, to go along with his 10.01 ERA, Pelfrey put up a insane BABIP of .482! Seriously, half of the balls which were put into play fell for base hits. There is no way that a rate like that could ever keep going. Even with his amazing start, his BABIP is .342 for the year, so we should expect improvement to finish the season off. But keep in mind that Pelfrey has a career BABIP higher than .300, so it may not be a serious improvement.

On the flip side of BABIP this year is Mat Latos . He has put together a very strong year so far and his BABIP is down to .234. Again, we should expect this rate to trend towards the mean. So should we expect Latos to have a severe downswing?  No … but we should not expect him to keep up the same rates he’s produced so far. We should expect his rates to increase from where they are today.  If the numbers don’t increase … he’s a lucky man.

One last thing to take into account when evaluating BABIP is the defense behind the pitcher.  Earlier I stated that we need to work with the assumption that defenders will get to balls at the same rate over the long run. However, it is safe to assume that pitchers for teams with good defense have a lower BABIP than a pitcher who is on a team with bad defense. So take that into account when looking at numbers that haven’t deviated far from the mean. Use the entire teams BABIP and compare that with the pitchers BABIP to adjust your assumptions.

For fantasy purposes, BABIP is a great tool to use to gauge some hidden value. It can be used to sell high or buy low. On draft day, use BABIP to discount a break out season or to justify an upcoming rebound year. In our game we need all the help we can get, if you’re not using BABIP, you’re not seeing the whole picture.

Written by James Weston exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. You can follow him on Twitter  @TheRealJamesA .

Who are some other BABIP extremists?  
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter@TheFantasyFix

____________________________________________________

Here are some more articles that will not self-destruct in 10 seconds…

Fantasy Baseball 

The Numbers Game: Forecasting Week 18 in Fantasy Baseball   
Fantasy Baseball’s Top 50 Pitchers Post All-Star Break   
MLB   Fantasy Baseball Second Half Ranks: Third Base

MLB Fantasy Baseball Post ASB Positional Ranks: Catcher

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Please be sure to check out Mets Paradise and our forum for everything Mets!

—-

I was watching this team play baseball yesterday in what was a must-win game for the Mets. They knew how big these next six games were going to be. They needed to show in last night’s game that they were ready to do anything to win and that they would not go down without a fight. But they didn’t do that.

At times this season the Mets have looked like a team that battles back or fights to stay in the game. But something has happened to that team, and whatever they had at the beginning of the year is gone. It happened around the time Mike Pelfrey started to fall apart, and around the time Carlos Beltran and Luis Castillo came back.

I don’t think Beltran and Castillo are clubhouse poisons who made this team go into a tail spin. They haven’t played great, but still that’s no excuse for why the rest of the team has struggled so much. It could have been that when these two guys came back, the team just shifted into a different gear. The players figured, now that we have them back, they can take some of the load off of us. It doesn’t really make sense, but a lot of things the Mets have done this year haven’t made sense.

I came to the sad realization a couple days ago that this team isn’t going anywhere. The Mets don’t have what it take to make the playoffs with the type of attitude they have right now. I’m not the only one who thinks this either. In a recent poll on Mets Paradise, 85 percent of the voters believed the Mets will not make the playoffs.

This doesn’t mean that I’m going to stop watching them or stop attending games. This is my team, and if it is going down, I’m going down with it. I love the Mets, and that wouldn’t change whether they were in the World Series or in last place.

**Read the rest…**

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            In a tale of two haves, Mike Pelfrey’s 2010 season has taken a sharp turn for the worse since June 13.  Entering the June 13^th Sunday matinee game against the lousy Baltimore Orioles, who currently rank 27^th in the majors in runs scored, Pelfrey has seen his ERA steadily rise with each outing, with the exception of his recent July 24^th outing against the at time struggling Los Angles Dodgers when Pelfrey managed to drop his ERA a miniscule 0.01.  After coming off a nine inning, one hit, and one earned run performance against the San Diego Padres at home, a game Pelfrey received a no decision for because the game went extra innings, Pelfrey saw his ERA stand at a sparkling 2.23.  However, Pelfrey’s good fortunes came crashing down as his ERA has progressively risen since his nine starts after that, with the aforementioned exception, and it currently peaks at an unwanted 4.10.  In this piece, I’m trying to dissect the numbers and see what Pelfrey’s sudden collapse can be attributed to.

            In Pelfrey’s starts pre-June13th (which will be referred to as the first half), he threw his 4-seam fastball 45.3% of the time, averaging 91.8 velocity while doing so.  The next most used pitch by Pelfrey was his 2-seam fastball, which can be interchangeable with Pelfrey’s sinker, which he threw 21.8% of the time.  The third most used pitch was the changeup, Pelfrey’s preferred off-speed pitch in which he averaged 84.1 velocity on.  The fourth used pitch thrown 7.3% of the time was Pelfrey’s slider, followed by a cutter thrown 5.8% of the time, and lastly his newly found split-finger thrown a measly 0.7% of the time.  In the second half starts (the June 13^th game and later) Pelfrey’s most widely used pitch was his 2-seamer/sinker, which he threw for 35.9% of the time.  His second most used pitch was his, 4-seamer; however its usage has dramatically decreased and has only been thrown 32.1% of the time, a 13.2% loss from the first half.  However, the increased usage of the sinker and decreased usage of the 4-seamer is most likely connected to the fact Pelfrey was trying to induce groundballs for a potential double play as he’s been putting more runners on the base paths.  True to the first half, the third most used pitch and favored off-speed pitch was the change-up, which was thrown 12.9% of the time.  Gaining a healthy increase in usage was the split finger, which ranked fourth among pitches thrown at a 7.3% rate, netting a 6.6% gain.  The last two pitches were the slider and cutter, thrown 6.5% and 5.2% of the time, respectively.   For the record, the average fastball velocity in the second half was 92.2, a .04 increase from the previous mark proving velocity is a non-factor.

            Next, it’s important to look at the effectiveness of each pitch.  The 4-seamer’s average whiff rate of 6.0% in the first half compared to a 5.2% in the second.  The sinker averaged a whiff of 7.2% in the first half against a decreased 4.75% after the Padre game.  The changeup plummeted from a 12.9% rate all the way down to 6.9%.  The slider whiff rate actually rose from a 3.1% to a more modest 7.8%.  The newly acquired split finger had a respectable 7.0% rate when it became used in the second half.  Lastly, the rarely used cutter graded high in both halves posting whiff rates of 11.7% and 9.8%.  Looking even deeper, we see that Pelfrey has much better control on his fastball and sinker which enables him to pound the strike zone – posting strikes on 62% or higher for both the 4-seamer and sinker in both halves.  However, when Pelfrey throws the change, he loses some control and throws around 57% for strikes.  Another factor that should be taken into consideration is the fact that Pelfrey is hanging his off-speed stuff and making his pitches more hittable.  In the first half, Pelfrey had in play percentages of 26.7%, 15.5%, and 18.2% on the changeup, slider and cutter.  In the second half, he posted in play percentages of 21.8%, 17.6%, 12.2%, and 22.8% on his changeup, slider, cutter, and split finger.   The percentages for the established pitches remain relatively stable, but the newborn split finger posted an unfriendly 22.8% for an off-speed pitch. 

            Furthermore, in the month of April, Pelfrey posted an absurdly lucky 93.6 LOB% (left-on-base percentage) and a .249 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), two numbers that represent luck and that will inevitably revert back to career norms over an adequate sample size.  As kind as April was to Pelfrey, July was just as harsh.  In the past month, Pelfrey’s luck has apparently vanished indicated by his 58.6 LOB% and .459 BABIP. In addition, for the month of April Pelfrey posted a microscopic 0.69 ERA compared to his ugly 10.02 mark for July.  To the further add to the harm, Pelfrey’s solid line drive percents of 20.3, 20.7, and 20.5 during April, May, and June have jumped to 24.1% for July – so clearly Pelfrey has been making his stuff more hitter friendly allowing his opposition to make better contact.  However, the months of May and June profile Pelfrey’s realistic expectations as he posted a fair 75.3 LOB% in both months, with a .307 and .301 BABIP in May and June (league average on BABIP is around .300).  During those two months, Pelfrey also posted an ERA of 3.82 and 3.54, the type of consistency the Mets would love from their supposed number two starter.

            In conclusion when looking at all the data, Pelfrey’s recent ineffectiveness can be attributed to a couple of things.  First, Pelfrey has incorporated a new plan of attack for whatever reason since the Padre start: to throw more off-speed stuff.  More specifically, Pelfrey introduced his split finger and so far the results of the pitch have been disappointing.  To add on, with the increased use of the split-finger and the rather high in play rate, coupled with the visual test, it’s evident that Pelfrey is hanging the pitch at times.  Looking at the split-finger location chart, courtesy of the Pitch-FX tool, we can see Pelfrey is clearing leaving the pitch over the plate and isn’t pounding it towards the lower part of the strike zone.  Secondly, we can see that hitters have started to figure out Pelfrey’s stuff and that he’s leaving things over the plate.  Factor in the increased line drive rates and the decrease in fly ball rates over the season and it’s clear hitters are getting the barrel of the bat on the ball. The walk rates have actually improved over the season as he walked 8.81% of batters faced in the first half compared to 7.73% in the second half, so control can’t be an issue.  When putting it all together, Pelfrey’s been moving away from his heater and instead has reverted to throwing his off-speed stuff.  Pair that with some bad luck, hanging off-speed stuff, leaving things over the plate, and essentially making his arsenal more hittable, and Pelfrey has made his first half success a distant memory.  Going forward, Pelfrey will probably settle down with numbers similar to May and June as he certainly won’t consistently repeat his luck from April and should eventually figure things out from his July misfortunes.  For the sake of the Mets’ playoff chances, the organization is hoping he figures it out before his Wednesday outing against the division leading Atlanta Braves.

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If the Mets somehow made the playoffs and they started tomorrow, what do you think the rotation should be?

My pick is Santana, RA Dickey, and Niese, with Pelfrey there if anyone gets in trouble.

While Big Pelf was lights out earlier in the season, if the playoffs started tomorrow, I have more confidence in Dickey and Niese.

Hopefully the Mets can stay in the race and Pelfrey can find that arm he left back there somewhere in May.

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LOS ANGELES: Mike Pelfrey has gone through a rough stretch over his last four starts like none other in over 50 years.

Over his last 14.2 innings pitched, Pelfrey has allowed 51 baserunners. That’s almost 3.5 baserunners allowed per inning, a rate that hasn’t been seen since 1951.

Yes, it’s been that bad for the pitcher whom some people considered the staff’s ace in April and May.

His last start in Arizona, was the worst of his career, only lasting 1.1 innings. He gave up six runs on seven hits, and threw 51 pitches in the first inning.

It’s not as if Pelfrey has been on and off; he’s been atrocious lately, which is surprising considering the start he got off to this season.

It really came out of nowhere, and now Pelfrey must regroup immediately without a trade looking imminent, in order for the Mets to stay in the National League race.

A good start by Pelfrey would come at a good time this afternoon, trying to build a winning streak for the Mets.

The best thing that can happen to the Mets right now, is winning the final two games of this road trip, to go back home 4-7.

That may be getting carried away, but if Pelfrey can come through today, R.A. Dickey would be pitching tomorrow, and he has been rock solid.

What the Mets must do as a team is play like they did last night, for the rest of the season. No, it doesn’t mean they’ll finish the season 65-0, it just means they’ll have a chance to win the majority of them.

Last night, the Mets played with grit and passion. Three outstanding defensive plays started with Jason Bay’s faceplant into the left-field fence. Great pitching and smart offensive ball.

The lineup put out by Jerry Manuel last night is the one that should be used from here on out. It can produce in many ways, especially with the threesome on top: Reyes, Castillo, and Pagan. They all have speed, can bunt, and can play small ball.

With David Wright and Carlos Beltran hitting in front of Ike Davis, and with Bay protecting Davis, the rookie first baseman should feel very comfortable, as evidenced by his home run last night.

Manuel finally put together a lineup that produced to the tune of six runs on eight hits. There were also many great signs for the Mets in last night’s win.

Not only did Jason Bay finally come through with a huge hit in the eighth, his biggest to date, but Carlos Beltran showed some things with his sliding catch in center field.

Beltran, after making a nice catch, got up without a single problem and continued on, showing that his surgically repaired knees may be feeling better.

Trying to put together a run of games with solid run production, the Mets will go up against rookie right-hander Carlos Monasterios.

He has appeared in 20 games with the Dodgers, and has started six of them. The Dodgers are looking for a fifth starter, and have been using a number of pitchers to fill the hole in the rotation.

Monasterios is 2-2 in the six games in which he has started, and this will be his first since June 18 against the Red Sox.

He didn’t fare well in that game, allowing six runs on eight hits, and two home runs in four innings of work.

He did face the Mets in relief at Citi Field on April 27 in the nightcap of a doubleheader, allowing a hit and striking out two in two innings.

Dodgers manager Joe Torre should have both his setup man Hong-Chih Kuo and closer Jonathan Broxton available for today’s game, giving them a great late-game bullpen advantage if need be.

The Mets, who actually gained a game in the NL East standings last night, will try to begin something positive, as the long West Coast trip is winding to an end.

Mike Pelfrey vs. Los Angeles (career)
0-1, 5.40 ERA, 10 IP, 15 hits, 4 BB, 10 SO

Carlos Monasterios this season (20 games/6 starts)
3-2, 3.61 ERA, 52.1 IP, 50 hits, 18 BB, 24 SO

2010 season series (New York vs. Los Angeles)

April 27 (1): New York 4, Los Angeles 0
April 27 (2): New York 10, Los Angeles 5
April 28: New York 7, Los Angeles 3

July 22: Los Angeles 2, New York 0
July 23: New York 6, Los Angeles 1

Mets lead series 4-1

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