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When Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper and Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout were named National and American League Rookie of the Year, respectively, Major League Baseball was the real winner. 

Trout’s victory was a foregone conclusion in June. He came up three weeks into the season and proceeded to have one of the greatest rookie seasons in history, hitting .326/.399/.564 with 30 home runs, 49 stolen bases and playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field. 

Harper’s win was not as predictable as Trout’s, though a strong September pushed his numbers into an area where it was really only a race between him and Arizona’s Wade Miley. Harper finished the season hitting .270/.340/.477 with a WAR of 4.9 (per Fangraphs). 

What made these seasons even more impressive was the age at which both players found success. Trout played most of the 2012 season at age 20, while Harper was 19 until October 16. 

The Rookie of the Year Award has different connotations to different people. To some, it should be about honoring the best first-year player without regard to their status and future upside. To others, there has to be some degree of future projection factored into the voting; otherwise, when you look back on the award, you are going to wonder what the voters were thinking. 

With the latter formula, it is still important to look at the season the rookie had, but you are also helping to elevate a young player who could potentially be one of the faces of the sport for the next decade. 

For example, in 2009, Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan beat a field of candidates that included Atlanta pitcher Tommy Hanson and Pittsburgh centerfielder Andrew McCutchen. Coghlan hit .321/.390/.460 with nine home runs in 128 games and was a poor defensive player. 

By comparison, McCutchen hit .286/.365/.461 with 12 home runs, 22 stolen bases and played much better defense at a more demanding position. But because voters fell in love with peripheral stats, they gave the award to Coghlan. 

Which player would you rather have today?

The point being that what players like McCutchen in 2009 or Harper and Trout in 2012 represent for baseball is something that can’t be taken for granted, and why Harper’s and Trout’s Rookie of the Year Awards are big deals. 

Baseball fans knew Trout and Harper long before they got called up. Both players have been at the top of prospect rankings for a long time. Trout burst onto the scene in 2009; Harper was the most hyped draft pick in history a year later. 

You need to keep the marketing machine going in baseball. The sport is far too reliant on the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs to draw huge television ratings. Instead, you need the voters to get the awards right so MLB can market its players to casual audiences. 

For the most part, the AL and NL Rookie of the Year voting has gone to the right players over the last five years, so it is hard to find much fault here. MVP voting is a different story entirely, but we won’t get into that. 

Harper and Trout were the right winners for Major League Baseball, both in terms of their production on the field this season and future potential, which should include many All-Star appearances and MVP trophies. 

Follow @adamwells1985

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Next Thursday, Major League Baseball will announce the winners of this year’s Most Valuable Player awards. 

Which, I suppose, means we only have a little more than a week to continue arguing about who should win the darn things. We better make the most of it.

There’s really not much of a debate over who should win the MVP on the National League side of the fence, but the argument over who should win the American League MVP is more like a war. I would bet good money that the AL MVP situation has ended at least one marriage and led two or three fathers to disown their sons.

Everyone has their opinions on who should win each MVP award and why, but who will win the awards is another matter entirely. That’s not a question of who really deserves to win; it’s a question of which way the voters will lean.

With that in mind, let’s take one last look at who should win MVPs this year and who will win MVPs this year.

Note: Traditional stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Sabermetric stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Begin Slideshow

Now that Major League Baseball’s regular season has come to a close, the time has come to hand out awards for the best—and worst—performances of the year.

Baseball is inherently ambiguous which naturally leads to discussion and argument. No matter what you are trying to prove in the realm of baseball, it is possible to back it up with an obscure statistic or a quote from an old player’s memoir.

The uncertainty of the sport is what keeps many people invested.

With that in mind, the following are my picks for various awards and honors.

Feel free to respond in the comment section with your own thoughts and opinions.

Begin Slideshow

If Mike Trout does not win the American League MVP, I will lose all faith in humanity.

Okay, maybe that’s a stretch. The Most Valuable Player in the AL has been one of the hottest topics in baseball with the subject becoming scorching hot over the past few weeks.

For the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, you have the phenom and without-a-doubt choice for this year’s Rookie of the Year award-winner in Mike Trout. The center fielder, at 21 years of age, is setting himself up to be the winner of MVP awards for years to come.

On the other side, Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera has the opportunity to accomplish something on a baseball diamond that fans haven’t seen since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967: win the Triple Crown.

Before going into my reasons for why Trout should come out on top, I want to give full and complete disclosure that I believe both have had seasons deserving of the award. Please do not take my higher admiration for Trout’s season as a knock on Cabrera’s accomplishments in 2012. Both are incredible.

This is, however, an article on the most valuable player, not players.

A decision must be made.

And although I don’t have a vote, if I did I would select Trout.

While the numbers speak volumes, the numbers themselves aren’t the entire basis of my argument, but it’s still a good place to start.

Cabrera leads all three major batting categories of batting average, home runs and runs batted in over Trout with just two games left in the season. Cabrera’s stats would earn him the first Triple Crown in 45 years, and that is nothing to just brush off.

Cabrera has a stat line of .329/44/137 and helped earn the Detroit Tigers their first consecutive division titles in 77 years.

At .325/30/83, Trout’s season will end on Wednesday with the Angels failing to make it to October baseball.

These numbers are a tad deceiving for a variety of reasons.

Again, no knock on Cabrera. Any GM in baseball would love to have a guy playing for their team who put up those numbers. Just as I’m sure the Angels would have loved to have had Mike Trout for an entire season as opposed to calling him up in late April when the team was 6-14. Hindsight is 20/20, but for those who value the “did (player) lead his team to the playoffs” argument, you do have to wonder what type of impact on the standings Trout could have made in those 20 games he missed.

Even without those extra 20 games, Trout still managed to do something no rookie has ever accomplished: hitting 30-plus home runs while stealing 40-plus bases in the same season. Currently sitting at 48 steals, if Trout were to swipe two more bags by the end of his season Wednesday, he would join Eric Davis and Barry Bonds as the only players in MLB history with a 30 HR/50 SB season.

Trout has eight triples this season compared to zero by Cabrera and has also scored 129 runs compared to Cabrera’s 109.

Where they bat in the lineup plays a decent-sized role here. Trout is a leadoff guy, so it is assumed he would score more runs than someone like Cabrera who bats in the middle of the order. On the other side, Cabrera typically bats with runners on base more frequently than Trout and that gives him an advantage in the RBI count. Looking at these numbers, the case for Cabrera to win MVP is not huge in my opinion, but from the basic stats alone he would get my vote.

This isn’t your grandfather’s game anymore. The entire hierarchy, from ownership to general managers, to fans like ourselves have new stats and tools to evaluate talent in a much more accurate way than in the past.

Because of this I believe the Triple Crown is overrated.

Since 1909, the award has been won 12 times, including both leagues having Triple Crown winners in Jimmie Foxx and Chuck Klein in 1933. Yes, it was a different era back then, but the whole “once in a lifetime” argument is a bit tired in my opinion. Let’s save that phrase for a Cubs World Series title.

On that same thought, I am not a huge saber metrics guy. I believe the game has done an excellent job at integrating technology (okay, minus the replays) and bringing the game along while still holding on to the romanticism of the good old days of baseball. When determining an MVP, I believe the old school stats and saber metrics should be mixed in with watching the games themselves.

This is where Trout takes over the vote in my opinion.

As mentioned earlier, Trout is much quicker than Cabrera as seen by stats such as stolen bases (48 to 4). What doesn’t show up in the cookie-cut stat sheet of MLB.com is how frequently Trout has advanced from first to third on a shallow fly ball and how often he is able to score from second on a ball that routinely wouldn’t allow a run.

By watching Trout play, you realize just how much of an effect he has on the game that pen and paper could never tell you.

Sure, in the box score it may just say “F-8,” but in reality Trout has made numerous plays this season that should have been singles, doubles in the gap or even home runs, and turned them into outs.

Cabrera is not too great of a defender. And while the move to third, where he is an average/slightly below average fielder in my opinion, was done in order to accommodate Prince Fielder’s arrival in Detroit, the defensive aspect has me swaying heavily toward Trout.

Miguel Cabrera is one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. If you disagree with that, I am not entirely sure why you are still reading this. When that guy has a bat in his hand, the game could change at any moment.

Mike Trout, on the other hand, is the ultimate five-tool player.

He combines hitting for average with power, can field outstandingly with solid arm strength, as well as change the dynamic of the game with his speed.

WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, is a great way to calculate just how a player affects a game based on everything they do on the diamond.  To simplify a rather complex formula, it assigns a numerical value to how many wins that player earns a team compared to a “replacement level” fielder at the same position.

Mike Trout has a WAR of 10.3 while Miguel Cabrera is at 7.1. Trout has led in AL WAR ranking every full month this year with the exception of September, when he was second behind Adrian Beltre. As I’ve stated, I’m not a huge fan of saber metrics, but that stat is very impressive.

There is value in leading your team to the postseason. There is value in the Triple Crown award. There is also value in an outstanding member of a team who virtually carried the organization on his shoulders starting in late April and fell just short of October.

You can’t take a team to the promised land all alone. It takes the entire roster.

Mike Trout didn’t single-handedly fail by not getting the Angels in, just as Miguel Cabrera was not the sole contributor to Detroit’s division title.  For what it’s worth, the Angels have a better record.

At the end of the day, both guys are deserving.  Had the rest of the Angels lived up to expectations and made the playoffs like Detroit, I feel that the conversation would be much closer.

When I eliminate the thought of the team and consider who is the Most Valuable Player?

Mike Trout. Hands down.

Brandon Wheeland is a staff writer for Climbing Tal’s Hill where he covers the Houston Astros. Read his thoughts on all things sports at his blog Wheeland On Sports. Follow him on Twitter @BrandonWheeland

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The race for the 2012 American League Most Valuable Player award looks to be a close one.

Among the top candidates are familiar names you might expect. But this season, we also have a breakout rookie superstar who changed the race as soon as he was called up to the majors.

Bleacher Report’s MLB Lead Writer Ian Casselberry and Pop Culture Lead Writer Gabe Zaldivar name the top candidates for the AL MVP and make their picks for the eventual winner.

Who is your choice for AL MVP? Do you disagree with our picks? Did we snub anyone from the list? Sound off in the comments section below.

Follow Gabe Zaldivar on Twitter @gabezal

Follow Ian Casselberry on Twitter @iancass

If you like what you see, click here for more from Bleacher Report Productions. 

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By all accounts, Mike Trout is having one heck of a season. His wins-above-replacement stat—9.2 games—is more than one-and-a-half times that of the next-highest ranked player in the bigs. His .335 batting average and 42 steals lead the AL, and his OPS of .979 is second only to Miguel Cabrera. Though Cabrera and Josh Hamilton may give him a run for his money, Mike Trout is very likely to win the AL MVP award this year.

And to top it all off, he’s just a rookie.

If Trout wins both the MVP and Rookie of the Year awards, he’ll be joining a very select group of athletes in any sport who’ve managed the feat. Who are the others, and what did they do?

Begin Slideshow

After watching him help the Angels sweep the Red Sox earlier this week, and based on his entire body of work this season, it’s clear that Mike Trout is one of the most exciting young players in the majors. He may even be the American League MVP when all is said and done, but there is one thing I don’t think the 21-year-old phenom should be:

Rookie of the Year.

Technically, Trout is a rookie. As the MLB rules state, “A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

Trout makes the cut…barely. He played in 40 games (32 starts) during 2011, in which he had 123 at-bats. This may qualify someone for rookie status the next year, but it seems like an awful big sample set for me.

Forty games is nearly a quarter of the MLB schedule, and in Trout’s case, these were not just meaningless down-the-stretch contests. His first appearance came on July 8 against Seattle, and he wound up playing 14 games in July, eight in August, and 19 in September as the Angels battled for both an AL West title and a Wild Card spot. They got neither, but Trout (who hit .220 with five home runs and 16 RBI) got plenty of experience.

This year, of course, has been a different story. Trout has been with the Angels since late April and has torn up the league with an AL-best .336 average, 41 stolen bases, and 103 runs scored (along with 25 home runs) entering last night. Much hoopla was made when he became the first rookie to have both 25 homers and 40 steals during the Red Sox series, but he just doesn’t feel like a first-year guy to me.

He was an everyday player for Los Angeles during a good stretch of LAST season, and while he may seem like an entirely different performer this year, Trout is in fact the same guy who had already seen plenty of big-league pitching entering 2012.

To me, a true Rookie of the Year (ROY) winner is a guy who debuts the year he captures the award, or at most plays in 10 or 15 September games the previous season.

Baseball is the only one of the four major professional sports that has this type of shady rookie status. Football players, of course, go straight from college onto NFL rosters and have zero pro experience entering their first year. Ditto for hockey players, who enter the NHL from college or the minor league ranks. And while basketball players may have overseas professional experience, the first NBA games for every Rookie of the Year are played during his initial season in the league.

My 11-year-old son Jason had a very perceptive comment when I mentioned this discrepancy to him. “If Mike Trout is able to do this, what will keep managers from making sure young players don’t break the 130 at-bat limit so they can get better and older?”

I found no proof of this with Trout, who Angels manager Mike Scioscia played all game, every game down the stretch of 2011. It would have been interesting to see what might have happened had Trout gotten six more at-bats, of course.

Jason also had another funny premise: if a guy came up from the minors for 10 games a year for three years, would he still be considered a rookie going into his fourth season? According to the MLB rules above, he would. This seemed too funny to be plausible, but it happened…the 2008 NL ROY, Cubs catcher Geovany Soto, had played with Chicago for one game in 2005, 11 games in 2006, and 18 games in 2007. A fourth-year rookie!

I first started thinking about Trout’s freshman/sophomore status when Will Middlebrooks was shining for the Red Sox earlier this summer. A broken wrist derailed Middlebrooks in mid-August, and even if he had played out the string the chances are slim he would have put together stats like Trout.

But since Middlebrooks was a TRUE rookie whose 75 major games, 15 homers, and 54 RBI all came this season, one could argue (outside Los Angeles) that he is a more worthy Rookie of the Year winner than the guy who will get the award.

For some additional perspective, I looked back at AL and NL ROY winners from the past 10 seasons to see how they compare with Trout in pre-ROY experience. Soto was the only one I found with three MLB seasons under his belt, but one other player (Angel Berroa in 2003) had played shortstop for the Royals for a combined 35 games and 128 at-bats in 2001-2002. Talk about cutting it close to the 130 at-bat limit!

Most of the others fell into the more reasonable range of 15-20 pre-ROY games and 50-75 at-bats for position players and 5-15 games for pitchers. Six of the 20 awardees were “true” Rookies of the Year who saw their first MLB experience in their winning year: Chris Coughlin, Andrew Bailey, Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Dontrelle Willis and Eric Hinske. Honorable mentions go to 2006 winners Hanley Ramirez and Justin Verlander, who both played in just two MLB contests the previous season.

I think the system needs some revamping. Lower the pre-ROY maximum numbers to 20 games and/or 50 at-bats for position players, and 10 games and/or 30 innings for pitchers. This will ensure that September call-ups can still be considered rookies, but guys who played three months like Trout last year will be out of luck.

And what if Trout pulls off the double-win and captures both the Rookie of the Year and the MVP awards? He would be just the third man to achieve this feat, after Fred Lynn (in 1975) and Ichiro Suzuki (2001): two men who offer another contrast in rookies.

Lynn played in a reasonable 15 games in September of ’74, and while Suzuki was a “true” rookie in ’01 with regards to his MLB status, he did have nine seasons and more than 1,000 games in the Japanese professional leagues under his belt.

Now that’s another discussion altogether.  

Saul Wisnia lives less than seven miles from Fenway Park and works 300 yards from Yawkey Way. His latest book, Fenway Park: The Centennial, is available at http://amzn.to/qWjQRS, and his Fenway Reflections can be found athttp://saulwisnia.blogspot.com. He can be reached at saulwizz@gmail.com and @saulwizz. 

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Mike Trout is going to be the 2012 American League Rookie of the Year, but before anyone jumps the gun, keep in mind that Trout isn’t the first ROY, and won’t be the last. He still has a lot to work on before being mentioned in the same breath as Mickey Mantle or Ken Griffey Jr. 

Don’t get me wrong, Trout is a five-tooler. He runs like the wind (first in the bigs with 36 stolen bases), hits for power (21 homers), hits for average (tops in the A.L. with .345 avg.), wows us with his defensive skills (this explains it all) and has a cannon for an arm (I don’t have a video, but trust me on this one).

But regardless of those numbers, Mike Trout still hasn’t proven himself to be one of the best players ever. That’s not his fault, though. He hasn’t had the opportunity to play a fruitful 15-20 year career, yet.

Is he one of the best rookies of all time? Maybe. But it’s up for debate if he’s THE best rookie. If it were up to me, that honor would go to “Shoeless” Joe Jackson in his 1911 rookie campaign.

Jackson had a 9.9 WAR (via fangraphs), batted .408/.468./.590, finishing fourth in MVP voting, behind Hall of Famers Eddie Collins, “Big” Ed Walsh and Ty Cobb. And he did it at a respectable 24 years old. 

But alas, this isn’t a history lesson; just food for thought.

Mike Trout has been compared to the likes of Mickey Mantle, and being mentioned in the same sentence as the legend is remarkable on itself, but let me remind you of one thing: He has yet to complete a full season in the majors. 

In 90 games, Trout has proven to us that he can pad his stats in a very short amount of time, but at the end of the day, having one great season doesn’t mean you’ll have ten more just like it. 

What will really make him a superstar is whether or not he can maintain consistency at the MLB level for years to come. The bar has been set very high for Trout, because no one is thinking about this season anymore, but instead, they’re thinking about the impact he’ll have on baseball in the future. 

There is a possibility that Trout steamrolls opposing pitchers in his rookie season, then falls off the truck and never lives up to it again; he wouldn’t be the first.

In 2008, Geovany Soto was the National League rookie of the year, batting .285/.364/.504 (not Mike Trout numbers, but bear with me). He has yet to come close to those numbers again, ultimately resulting in his trade in 2012.

This is a small example, but all I’m saying is don’t be surprised if pitchers figure out Trout’s tendencies in 2013, forcing him to make adjustments and testing his mental capacity. 

From a physical standpoint, he could be a 10-year all-star if he keeps this up, but in reality there is one major difference between major and minor leaguers. Major league ballplayers are consistent.

Minor leaguers might have the talent, more talent than their major league counterparts, but they can’t make adjustments and stay consistent enough, ultimately forcing them to ride buses for the remainder of their careers. 

A lot of people are asking, “is there anything Mike Trout hasn’t done?”. Well, it’s the one thing he has no control over: have an illustrious career.

There is no way to predict a home run king, or an all-time hits leader, or someone breaking the stolen base record, because although the talent might be there, it’s not all that’s required. To be a legend, you need to have mental grit, you need to stay healthy, you need to be smart and you have to, above all, stay consistent and let your playing do the talking. 

Joe Jackson batted .300 every season following his rookie year except for once (.272), going out with a .382/.444/.589 slash line in his final season of baseball in 1920, after being banned in the 1919 Black Sox World Series scandal (where he batted .375 with 12 hits, the best of the series’ and committed no errors).

If Mike Trout can play stellar baseball for years upon years to come, I’ll eat my words. But for now let’s enjoy the Mike Trout show, because just like everything else he does, this may never happen again.

For him, or anyone else. 

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Buster Posey has been a grinder for the San Francisco Giants this season, and a player who deserves the National League MVP Award.

Since he broke into the big leagues in 2010, where he batted .305/.357/.505 and ran away with the Rookie of the Year Award, Posey has been an instrumental part of the Giants lineup.

Not only does he call a great game, but he brings a youthful energy to the squad, an energy that’s hard to maintain.

Buster Posey is hands down the most important player on a Giants squad inches ahead in the N.L. West pennant race. 

Why? Because he’s their backbone.

Before the enthusiasm Bryce Harper and Mike Trout brought to the game, Posey showed the world he’s able to carry a World Series team on his back. 

His presence on the diamond is electric, so it’s not a shocker San Francisco missed the postseason last year after losing Posey 45 games into the season.

But alas, he’s back and better than ever, setting career highs in every major hitting category. And if he hasn’t already, he’s on pace to have the best season of his young career.

Thus far he’s batting a blistering .328/.394/.542 to go along with 17 homers, 23 doubles and 41 walks.

But above all, there are two statistics that stand out most about Posey: his 41 RAR and 4.2 WAR.

In simpler terms, the Giants are a better ball club with Posey in their lineup, from both an offensive and defensive standpoint.  

Although guys like Melky Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen will headline the MVP crew, don’t be surprised to hear Buster Posey’s name called, because he’s been climbing to the top of a lot of hitting categories.

And he hasn’t even played 100 games yet.  

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Los Angeles Angels super-rookie Mike Trout is officially 21 years old on Tuesday, meaning he can go out and grab a celebratory beer if he feels so inclined (quick, somebody ask him if he’s going to do that).

Let’s go ahead and consider Trout’s 21st birthday a career milestone. At the rate he’s going, milestones still to come probably include a batting title, a stolen base title, the American League Rookie of the Year award and possibly a Gold Glove as well.

Trout also has a very, very legitimate chance of winning the big one: the American League Most Valuable Player award. 

Those who have been following along with my weekly AL MVP rankings will know that I’m very much in favor of Trout winning the award when all is said and done. He’s had a vice grip on the No. 1 spot in my rankings for weeks, and he’s once again up at No. 1 in this week’s rankings. He has some worthy pursuers in Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano, but the season Trout is having blows theirs out of the water.

But the MVP isn’t my call (sigh…). It’s in the hands of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, and the voters have been known to make some questionable calls regarding the MVP on occasion. The 1999 AL MVP voting comes to mind.

Trout’s situation is complicated by the fact that rookie MVPs are few and far between. Only Fred Lynn in 1975 and Ichiro in 2001 have won the MVP award as rookies. That’s two rookie winners in 80 seasons of MVP voting. Not a good percentage.

Two things have to happen for Trout to have a shot at becoming the third rookie to win the MVP award. 

First and foremost, the one thing Trout must do is avoid slowing down in the final two months. He needs to keep up the level of production he’s established since he was called up to The Show in late April, which is unlike anything we’ve ever seen.

Trout’s numbers are frighteningly good. He has a triple slash line of .348/.411/.598, which makes for an OPS of 1.009. He leads the American League in hitting, ranks third in OBP, and second in slugging and OPS.

Trout’s 36 stolen bases are good for tops in the American League, as are his 86 runs. Per FanGraphs, he also leads the AL with a .443 weighted on-base average. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com have Trout leading the Junior Circuit in WAR.

The short version: Trout is the best player in the American League. By a significant margin.

The fact that he’s just now turning 21 years old boggles the mind, but what boggles the mind even more are the numbers Trout is on pace to finish with.

According to ESPN.com, Trout is on pace to finish with 28 home runs, 87 RBI, 53 stolen bases and 127 runs scored. It’s of course assumed that he’ll maintain his .348/.411/.598 line for the rest of the season.

Ever wonder how many players have finished with numbers like those?

Nobody. No player in history has ever hit .340 with 25 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a single season (h/t Baseball-Reference.com).

So it’s by no means an exaggeration to say that Trout is in the middle of a historic season. If he sees it through all the way to the end, him not winning the AL MVP would be a travesty.

But can he keep it up all the way to the end?

One’s first instinct is to say no, but what’s amazing about Trout is that he’s gotten better and better as the season has gone along. His OPS increased each month in May, June and July. He’s also proven to be slump-proof, as he hasn’t strung together back-to-back 0-fers since the middle of June.

You have to throw conventional wisdom out the door when it comes to Trout. Rookies aren’t supposed to be this good, but it’s abundantly obvious by now that he really is this good.

But this doesn’t mean that the voters are going to have to lend Trout their support when it comes time to fill out their MVP ballots at the end of the season. He’ll have the numbers, but voters rightfully consider more than just numbers when choosing MVPs.

There’s Trout’s team to consider. There’s no question Trout has made the Angels a much better team since his arrival, but he hasn’t made them a first-place team. Entering Tuesday, the Angels are still five games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West, and they’re only a half-game ahead of a Oakland A’s for second place.

MVPs tend to come from first-place teams. Case in point, seven of the last 10 American League MVPs have played on first-place teams, with the exceptions being Alex Rodriguez in 2003 and 2007 and Dustin Pedroia in 2008.

Trout’s MVP candidacy will still be strong even if the Angels fail to overtake the Rangers in the AL West by the end of the season, but he won’t be a lock for the award. The matter will be further complicated by the possibility that some voters will prioritize veteran players in their ballots.

You know, players like Cabrera, Cano, Josh Hamilton and maybe even Albert Pujols if he stays on a torrid pace until the end of the season.

Of the bunch, Cabrera will be the biggest threat to Trout. He’s on pace to hit 40 home runs and drive in 130 runs for the first time in his career, and he’s probably also going to finish with a .325 average and an OPS up around 1.000. Even for him, those are impressive numbers.

The voters are going to see those numbers, and they’re also going to recognize the fact that Cabrera has been putting up similar numbers for the past three seasons. He’s been the AL’s most dominant hitter ever since 2009. 

Yet he hasn’t won an MVP. He finished fourth in the voting in 2009, second in 2010 and fifth last year, but he has yet to win the coveted hardware. If it comes down to him and Trout for the AL MVP, there will no doubt be some voters who will want to throw Cabrera a bone.

That could cost Trout the MVP. There’s also a chance that Pujols and Mark Trumbo will steal votes from him and that Prince Fielder could steal votes from Cabrera, thus opening the door for Cano or somebody else to swoop in and steal the MVP in an upset victory.

If the MVP was given to the guy with the best numbers every year, there’s no question that Trout would be in line to win it this year. It’s the human element of the matter that makes him less of a lock. 

The bright side for Trout is that he clearly has a lot of fans out there. You don’t have to search far and wide to find writers who have squeed (yes, that’s a word) over Trout over the last few months. Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com, Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com are just a few of many who have waxed poetic about the baseball genius of Trout.

It’s clear that there’s not a whole lot of skepticism regarding Trout among the “Knights of the Keyboard,” as Ted Williams used to refer to baseball writers. They love Trout.

Because of that, it’s hard to see them spurning Trout on their MVP ballots even if some of the scenarios we discussed regarding deserving veterans are in play when it comes time to vote. If Trout finishes with the numbers he’s teasing right now, he’ll get the support he deserves.

And if he gets the support he deserves, he’ll win the American League MVP. 

So can he win it? The answer is most certainly yes.

Should he win it?

That remains to be seen. But for now, you know where I stand.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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