Kuzul

MILWAUKEE BREWERS 

Last Year: 77-85, 3rd in NL Central 

Manager: Ron Roenicke

PROJECTED LINEUP

C – Jonathan Lucroy (R)

1B – Prince Fielder (L)

2B – Rickie Weeks (R) 

3B – Casey McGehee (R)

SS – Yuniesky Betancourt (R)

LF – Ryan Braun (R)

CF – Carlos Gomez (R)

RF – Corey Hart (R)

The Brewers have one of the NL’s best offenses, but their bottom of the lineup could pose some problems. The top five hitters in the lineup provide a great combination of OBP, power, and a decent average.  

Fielder is the only left-handed hitter in the lineup and the lineup’s best power hitter. Fielder had one of his least productive seasons in 2010, but he should produce big-time numbers during his contract year with 40-plus home runs while posting a .285/.410/.550 line.

Weeks won’t match the 29 home runs he put up last season, but he should net 15 stolen bases and hit 20 home runs out of the leadoff spot with a solid .260/.360/.450 line.

Betancourt can provide some 10-plus home runs but he is infamously known as a player who has a hard time reaching base.

McGehee is an above-average option at 3B in the number-five hole where he should provide 20 home runs while batting .280. 

Ryan Braun will bat third in the lineup in front of Fielder. Braun is the perfect right-handed compliment to Fielder because he hits for a higher average and has a knack for getting on base. Braun will provide 15-20 stolen bases and 30 home runs with a .310/.380/.560 line.

Hart shouldn’t be counted on to provide 32 home runs, but he is a 20-plus HR hitter who should put up similar numbers to McGehee with some more stolen bases.

Along with Betancourt, Gomez and Lucroy will round out the bottom of the order. This part of the lineup lacks a lot of punch, and Doug Melvin should be checking the market for to replace one of the three.

Gomez should provide 30 stolen bases in a full season, but he proved that he can’t hit higher than a .260 in a season. I don’t know what to make of Lucroy, but I would say he is a capable of hitting 10 home runs and hitting close to .260. 

The Brewers defense ranked 15th in UZR (ultimate zone ratings) last season, but the overall defense will struggle with the loss of Alcides Escobar.

The infield defense has very little range. Fielder and McGehee are at the bottom of their positions in terms of UZR, and Betancourt is considered one of the worst shortstops in baseball. Weeks does have good range at 2B. Lucroy had trouble with passed balls and blocking the plate, but he does have one of the better arms at catcher. 

Gomez is the the Brewers best defender in center field, but Hart and Braun are below-average in the corners. 

BENCH

IF – Craig Counsell (L)

IF – Luis Cruz (R)

OF/1B – Mark Kotsay (L) 

C – Wil Nieves  (R)

OF – Brandon Boggs (S) or OF- Chris Dickerson (L)

STARTING ROTATION 

RHP – Zack Greinke (Will miss first three starts with broken rib)

RHP – Yovani Gallardo 

LHP – Randy Wolf 

RHP – Shaun Marcum 

LHP – Chris Naverson 

RHP – Wily Peralta 

The Brewers rotation struggled in 2010, but the acquisitions of Greinke and Marcum make this a formidable rotation.

Greinke will start the year on the DL with a broken rib, but he should only miss his first three starts of the season. He didn’t repeat his 2009 Cy Young numbers in 2010, but he is still one of baseball’s batter starters with a 92-95 mph moving fastball, a hard breaking slider, slow curve and decent changeup. He has excellent command of all his pitches, and he should strike out close to a hitter an inning in the National League.

The acquisition of Greinke takes some pressure off of Gallardo, the Brewers’ ace the last two seasons. Gallardo will strike out a hitter an inning with a low 90s fastball, great slider, curve and “show me” change. I project him posting a 3.20-3.40 ERA. Gallardo may not be talked about as some of the other young pitchers in the league, but he has the potential to be a perennial Cy Young winner. 

The Brewers signed Wolf last offseason to pitch behind Gallardo, but he is much better suited to do that in the middle of the rotation. Wolf doesn’t have the best stuff, but he will throw 200 innings with an ERA around 4.10 using a lot of slow curves, changeups and sliders to compliment his below-average 88 mph fastball. He should have a strikeout rate of 6.5 per 9 innings, and record walks about three per nine because of his tendency to nibble at the corners. 

Marcum, who will slot behind Wolf, will give the Brewers much needed depth in the rotation.

He doesn’ have explosive stuff, but his changeup is one of the best in baseball. Despite the negligible discrepancy between his change and fastball, 81 mph to 87 mph, its downward movement makes it a tough pitch to handle.

Marcum should excel in the shift from the AL East to the NL Central, and post a 3.30 ERA with a 7.5 K/9 and 2.20 BB/9 rates.

Naverson will be the Brewers’ fifth starter when the rotation is at full strength. He is a lot like Wolf in that he uses an array of off-speed pitches to work off his 88-mph fastball. He has recorded strong strikeout rates for a soft-tossing lefty, 7.35 K/9 in 2010, and his 4.20 xFIP indicates he was the victim of some tough luck last season.  Peralta will start in Greinke’s place for the first few weeks of the season. 

BULLPEN

RHP – John Axford (Closer)

RHP – LaTroy Hawkins 

RHP – Takashi Saito 

LHP – Zach Braddock  

RHP – Kameron Loe 

LHP – Manny Parra

RHP – Sean Green  

The bullpen struggled at times for the Brewers in 2010, but has the potential to be a considerable strength this season.

Axford took over the ninth-inning duties after Trevor Hoffman’s early-season implosion. He throws a 95 mph fastball, with an outstanding slider and impressive curveball that allows him to record more than a strikeout per inning. He has had serious command problems in the minors, but his 2010 BB total was the best of his career.

The 41-year-old Saito will be the primary setup man for Axford, throwing a 91-mph fastball with a tight slider and decent curveball. He will put up great strikeout numbers (more than a K per inning) with a decent walk rate, but it remains to be seen if he can hold up for the entire season.  

The veteran Hawkins missed most of the 2010 season with a right shoulder injury. Hawkins can be a valuable weapon from the right side because of his ability to get groundballs. 

Braddock will be the primary left-handed specialist after pitching well last year during his rookie campaign. Braddock features a 93-mph fastball and a sharp slider. His ability to strike out left-handed hitters will be a valuable weapon in the later innings.

Loe is a right-handed groundball specialist who will pitch the middle innings for the Brewers. While he has struggled as a starter in the bigs, he has had success as a reliever in three different seasons.

Green will fill the same role as Loe, but the sidearmer should used primarily against right-handed hitters.

Former starter Parra will be used primarly out of long relief. He may get a few spot starts along the way in 2011.

NOTABLE NON-ROSTER INVITEES 

RHP – Mark DiFelice 

OF – Jeremy Reed (L)

KEY PLAYER – Shaun Marcum 

Marcum’s shoulder tightness has been a concern this spring training. A lot of scouts have been concerned about his velocity—86 mph in spring training—but that number isn’t far from his average velocity in 2010. If Marcum goes down for an extended period of time, the Brewers don’t have the pitching depth to stay afloat in the division race. 

PROSPECT TO WATCH – RHP Wily Peralta 

The 21-year-old Peralta will start the season as the fifth starter until Greinke returns from the DL, even though he has never pitched above Double-A. He features a mid 90s fastball with a sharp slider and decent changeup. Peralta dominated rookie and Single-A ball, but his strikeout numbers dropped all the way to 6.43 K/10 in Double-A.

If Narverson struggles early in the season, Peralta has the chance to stick in the rotation when Greinke does return. 

PROJECTED FINISH – 2nd in NL Central

General Manager Doug Melvin decided to go for the pennant this offseason with Fielder entering his final year before free agency. The Brewers will make a run at this division because of the lineup’s power and strong starting rotation. If I were Doug Melvin, I would seriously consider making a run at a veteran SS or C by the deadline.

Right now I see the Brewers falling short of the division, but making a strong run at the Wild Card.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

After a flurry of moves today, the 25-man roster heading north with the parent club has become as clear as it’s been all spring. Justin James and Mike McClendon were optioned to the minor leagues and once GM Doug Melvin traded minor leaguer Cutter Dykstra for OF Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Boggs was placed on waivers.

When those moves were completed, there were 27 players officially left in Major League camp though two of them (Jonathan Lucroy and Corey Hart) are expected to be officially placed on the DL shortly.

As for the current 25-man roster, it’ll break down like this:

Four Starting Pitchers

• Yovani Gallardo
• Shaun Marcum
• Randy Wolf
• Chris Narveson

Eight Relief Pitchers

• John Axford
• Takashi Saito
• Kameron Loe
• Sean Green
• Zach Braddock
• Mitch Stetter
• Sergio Mitre
• Brandon Kintzler

Two Catchers

• George Kottaras
• Wil Nieves

Six Infielders

• 1B – Prince Fielder
• 2B – Rickie Weeks
• SS – Yuniesky Betancourt
• 3B – Casey McGehee
• Bench – Craig Counsell
• Bench – Erick Almonte

Five Outfielders

• LF – Ryan Braun
• CF – Carlos Gomez
• RF – Mark Kotsay
• Bench – Jeremy Reed
• Bench – Nyjer Morgan

Now, obviously things will change throughout April quite a bit. Five expected roster members will be starting the season on the 15-day disabled list. These are pitchers Zack Greinke, Manny Parra and LaTroy Hawkins, catcher Jonathan Lucroy and right-fielder Corey Hart.

All of the DL placements will be retroactive to March 22 (the earliest date allowed by league rule) which means that the men on it to start the year will be eligible to come back to the active roster as of April 6. Not everyone will be ready by then, but two or more might be.

When Lucroy returns, one of the other catchers will be removed from the roster. Kottaras and Nieves are both out of options and, in reality, Lucroy’s injury is simply delaying the inevitable for one of them.

With Martin Maldonado and Mike Rivera set to share the catching duties at Triple-A Nashville, one has to wonder whether the person Lucroy pushes out will even choose to remain with the organization should he clear waivers.

Hart’s situation is much the same though it seems much more clear who loses their job when he returns.

Spring training non-roster invitee Jeremy Reed made the club based on his performance over these past few weeks, but with the Brewers having recently traded for the younger, more talented, team-controlled (contract-wise) Nyjer Morgan, it appears fairly obvious that, barring injury, Reed will be the odd man out when Hart is deemed ready to go.

As for the pitchers, it’s a bit more muddled. The team is only taking four starters north because they don’t need a fifth one until April 6.

That being said, unless they choose to have recently acquired swingman Sergio Mitre make that first spot start, someone will have to be sent out to make room for the fifth starter.

If someone is sent out, it’ll likely be Brandon Kintzler because not only does he have options remaining but they aren’t going to keep eight relief pitchers all year anyway.

If they choose to go with Mitre on April 6, Kintzler will survive a while longer. A fifth starter isn’t need again after that until April 16.

So if we go down the diverging paths another step, we get to the two relief pitchers, Hawkins and Parra. If Mitre makes the spot start, Kintzler will be optioned down as soon as Hawkins is ready to come back.

When Parra is deemed healthy he’ll replace one of the other left-handed pitchers in the bullpen, either Braddock or Stetter. Who is sent down to Nashville due to his return will probably rely a great deal on performance over these first couple of weeks.

Of course, the elephant in the room is the eventual return of Zack Greinke. When he is ready to contribute the bullpen shrinks back to seven members. No ifs, ands or buts about that.

If he’s somehow the first pitcher to return, Kintzler again goes. If he’s second behind Parra, it could be Mitre who goes because they’d have their long-man back. If Hawkins is on the roster too, it could be an interesting decision to say the least.

But, for now, the 25-man roster is very clear…for at least a week or so, anyway.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

I had the good fortune of connecting with the Milwaukee Brewers 2009 Minor League Player of the Year, Logan Schafer, and asked if he would have time for a quick interview. He didn’t at the time but we agreed to connect somewhere around the beginning to middle of spring training.

We had originally thought that we could do a phone interview but that had been discussed just prior to Schafer’s thumb injury which he suffered during a spring training game.

Instead, we decided that I would email him some questions and he would respond in kind.

Below are the results of that exchange.

Enjoy!

——–

Big Rygg: Thanks for doing the interview. I really appreciate your time. The first question I like to ask a professional athlete is always the same basic one and that is: When did you first realize that you were better than everybody else at baseball?

Most pros tend to be the best on every team they’re on growing up. From that feeling, when did you decide to pursue baseball as a career?

Logan Schafer: I have never been better than everybody else at baseball. In fact, I was rarely the best player on my team. Baseball has been a passion of mine since i was a little kid playing wiffle ball with my brothers and friends in my backyard. My love for the game has never changed or diminished.

What set me apart from other players at a young age was my ability to focus and learn how to play the game the right way. I am so thankful to have had such great coaches from a young age up through the present.

I was able to put a lot of time and energy into learning the intangibles of the game that have given me this incredible opportunity to be where I am today.

BR: How did you feel when you were drafted by a professional baseball franchise?

LS:  I was drafted three times out of college, and there was no feeling like it. I was drafted in the 31st round of the 2006 draft by the Boston Red Sox, the 47th round of the 2007 draft by the Colorado Rockies, and the third round of the 2008 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers.

My first draft was incredible. It is such an unbelievable thrill to see your name pop up on that screen in front of a Major League Baseball team. I held out however, because I was physically small and felt I had more to learn before I get into pro ball and try and have success.

I continued to have two good years at Cal Poly after attending Cuesta College, and had the happiest day of my life to this point in June of 2008 when the Brew Crew selected me in the thirrd round.

BR: To be drafted that many times, no doubt plenty of scouts had seen you over the years, but I’d like to get your opinion on you. Give me a scouting report on Logan Schafer. What is/are your best tool(s)?

LS: A scouting report of Logan Schafer would have to start with the glove. I take great pride in taking hits away from people, holding runners from taking the extra base and being able to determine where the ball should be thrown before the pitch. I spend a lot of time working on positioning and getting jumps to give me the best chance to be in on every play.

Offensively I hit more for average than power, but will have occasional power to the gaps. The small game is also a big part of who I am, so controlling the bat is also something I concentrate on quite a bit.

BR: Let’s talk about the injury bug for you these past couple of years, starting with the thumb and then the groin and foot last year and whatever update you could give us after surgery, including a projection for when you think you’ll be back on the field.

LS: The injury bug is a very frustrating one, in every facet of life. Typing this is tough with a broken thumb for instance (laughs). I had surgery on my thumb yesterday and everything turned out well. The doctor is sticking with four to six weeks, but they buried the pins so I can do some workouts and keep my arm in baseball shape after a week.

My groin tear turned hernia was the worst last year, since the pain and actual injury were so hard to diagnose. It was very humbling and disappointing to find out that I broke my navicular bone in my foot in late May (last year) coming back from the other injuries.

I just had to keep my head up, and that was tough to do when that light at the end of the tunnel seemed to be running away from me at the time. I played a few games in the Arizona Fall League and started off getting back into the groove in Spring Training, and then I break my thumb breaking up a double play.

I have learned the value of patience, and as frustrating as this might be, I got to spend a few weeks of incredible baseball at big league camp. Learning from the big leaguers and seeing how they go about their business is something special. It has helped me great amount and it gives me more fire to get there again, this year.

BR: To that end, I have to ask what you think about manager Ron Roenicke’s comment that you’ve earned his call-up confidence should the need arise?

LS: Ron has been outstanding towards me since I arrived in camp. He has been such a personable and outgoing skipper and has treated all of us with the (utmost) respect.

I never once felt out of place or as if i didn’t belong in that clubhouse. I have so much respect for the way he keeps the game of baseball fun and encourages guys to test themselves by taking chances. In a short few weeks, I have learned so much that I will take with me into this year.

The comment he made about me earning his “call-up confidence” is undoubtedly a very high honor. My goal has always been to get to the big leagues and have a long career. I will continue to play the game hard and see where it takes me.

BR: So, finally, whether it happens at some point in 2011 or whenever it finally does happen for you, what will it mean to you the first time you step out on a major league field as a big leaguer?

LS: The first time I step out onto a major league field wearing a major league uniform is going to be a humbling dream come true. Every year, month, week, day, week, hour and minute I have spent playing this wonderful game of baseball has been to become a Major League Baseball Player.

I see that day all the time; I am a very big visualizer. It will be the greatest day of my life without a doubt.

—

Again, I wanted to make sure that I mention how much I appreciate Logan’s time for this interview. I’ve had a fun time doing prospect interviews and I plan on continuing the tradition going forward.

Thanks again to Logan Schafer and here’s to a quick call up to Miller Park!

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It was recently announced that the Milwaukee Brewers acquired Yankees’ pitcher Sergio Mitre in a deal that sent outfielder Chris Dickerson to New York in return.

At the moment, this seems like a win-win situation for both teams: New York announced that Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia will round out the rotation, and Bartolo Colon will move to the bullpen, most likely as a long reliever, a role which Mitre possessed last season.

Dickerson, on the other hand, has seemed like a bit of a nuisance for the Brewers. At age 28, he was acquired from Cincinnati in the deal that sent Jim Edmonds there from Milwaukee. Once in Milwaukee, he posted a very slight .206/.250/.268 split last season, though he was a bit in 2009, where he posted a .275/.370.373 split. However, he’s still only 28, so he’s got time to develop.

This is hailed as a smarter move for the Brewers, whose rotation is currently suffering. Zack Greinke is currently on the DL due to a cracked rib and will miss a handful of starts at the beginning of the season, and Shaun Marcum, who was acquired from the Blue Jays this offseason is experiencing some shoulder issues, though he will only miss one regular season start, which is good news for Brewers fans.

Because of these issues, the Brewers are lacking some depth.

Yovani Gallardo, who has been an outstanding pitcher for the Brewers and is currently predicted to pitch 219 strikeouts this season, will most likely make the start on Opening Day, though the Brewers have yet to confirm who will start for them against the Reds for the season opener.

Slated to start after Gallardo for Opening Day weekend is Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson, respectively. While this currently doesn’t pose too many risks, the Brewers need a pitcher to fill the role.

This is most likely why they went after Mitre.

Mitre, who is 30 years old, has made at least one start each of the past seven seasons, but he has primarily served as a reliever in the past. Could this be his opportunity to become a starter again?

For right now, it looks like the Brewers plan on using him as a starter until Greinke is healthy again, and he could potentially be the long reliever once Greinke returns.

But is this really a smart move to make?

Mitre’s career record is 13-29, and his career ERA stands at 5.27. He’s posted a 1-1 record this spring training for the Yankees with a 5.73 ERA.

ERA that is consistently over five and a 31 percent win rate over his career? Are these the stats of a truly reliable pitcher?

While Mitre may get more opportunity in Milwaukee, there’s still not a lot of certainty with him as to whether he will succeed or fall.

Like Dickerson, Mitre still has time to develop in the minors if necessary, but that’s probably not the reason the Brewers pursued him.

Regardless of what role he plays, can Sergio Mitre get the job done in 2011?

Please share your thoughts. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In 2010, veteran closer Trevor Hoffman struggled following his brilliant 2009 campaign and rookie John Axford was promoted to fill his place. Axford experienced remarkable success in relief of Hoffman.

Can Axford carry over his success from last season? Brewers fans hope so, but to do so he will have to break a recent trend of one-and-done for Brewers closers.

Sometimes it seems that the Brewers have been under a closer’s curse since 2004. Since Dan Kolb’s run of success as the Brewers closer in 2003-04, the Brewers have had one sensational closer every year, with the exception of 2006, which was a transitional year. Each season it has been a different player.

The inability of the Brewers to maintain continuity in the closer role, despite several stellar performances in individual seasons, has been a fascinating (and frustrating) phenomenon to observe.

Let’s review the history of Brewers firemen since the 2003 season.

Dan Kolb was the Brewers’ “Unsung Hero” in 2003. He pitched in just 37 games, but converted 21 of 23 save opportunities and posted a sparkling 1.98 ERA. In 2004, he had another incredible season, going to the All-Star game and putting up a sub-3.00 ERA while logging 39 saves in 44 chances.

However, the Brewers traded Kolb to the Braves during the offseason, and the Brewers have suffered under a closer’s curse ever since. No Brew Crew closer has been able to put together back-to-back successful seasons.

At first, things seemed to be just fine. An unheralded and wild-haired Derrick Turnbow came out of nowhere in 2005 to record 39 saves in 43 opportunities. He brought excitement to the stands every time he pitched as fans cheered every time his fastball hit 100 mph on the radar gun. He turned in an incredible 1.74 ERA and won the Brewers Top Newcomer Award.

In 2006, Turnbow started off with the same stuff, but was a bit shaky at times. He was named to the All-Star team mainly on the strength of his 2005 season, but he quickly fell completely apart. He soon lost his closer job, and his ERA ballooned all the way to 6.87, FOUR times his ERA of the year before.

Desperate for help, the Brewers traded for Francisco Cordero from the Texas Rangers. Cordero finished the 2006 season even better than had Turnbow pitched in 2005, with a 1.69 ERA for the Brewers.

In 2007, Cordero picked up where he had left off and gave the Brewers a full season of dependable ninth-inning shutdowns. He converted 44 of 51 save opportunities with a 2.98 ERA and made the NL All-Star team.

But the Brewers, seemingly determined to only get one full season out of any closer, didn’t sign him and he went to the Reds as a free agent in 2008, where he has continued to be a star closer.

The Brewers acquired long-time Dodgers closer Eric Gagne for the 2008 season. He ended up as a bust, just like Turnbow became in 2006 and Hoffman would be in 2010, except Gagne didn’t even give the Brewers one good season. His $10 million contract was a total loss for the very beginning, and Gagne lost the closer’s job within a month of Opening Day.

Veteran Salomon Torres filled the gap admirably, and helped the Brewers to their first playoff berth in 26 years with 28 saves in 35 chances and a 3.49 ERA. But once again the Brewers were left searching for a closer, as Torres retired following the season.

During the offseason, the Brewers again signed a big-name free agent to be their closer. This time it was Padres legend Trevor Hoffman, and in 2009 it worked out beautifully.

Hoffman pitched one of the best seasons of his career, converting 37 of 41 save opportunities along with an ERA of 1.83. He was named to the NL All-Star team and won the Brewers Top Newcomer Award.

But Hoffman was not immune to the closer’s curse. The 2010 season was a total disaster from the very beginning, as Hoffman struggled with his command and got hit hard.

He lost the closer’s role to John Axford, who was promoted to the majors in mid-May. Although Hoffman eventually regained some of his usual form later in the season, he got only a few more save opportunities, finally reaching 600 career saves on September 7.

Axford had a spectacular start to his Brewers career, converting each of his first 14 save opportunities and 24 of 27 overall. He struck out 76 batters in 58 innings and put up an ERA of 2.48. Like Turnbow and Hoffman before him, Axford won the Brewers Top Newcomer Award.

Can Axford avoid the fate of those two closers and with a successful 2011 season? Brewers fans hope so, but it won’t be easy.

It is nearly impossible to project the consistency of closers. They face more pressure than any other player on a game-to-game basis. It is their job to shut down the other team with the game on the line, and handling that pressure is one of the most difficult tasks in all of sports.

There are very few Mariano Riveras in baseball, closers who dependably perform their duties year-in and year-out. Even Hoffman, one of the top five closers of all time, eventually had a breakdown season.

If Axford can break the closer’s curse in 2011 and come repeat the success he enjoyed in 2010, he can begin to establish himself as a top-level closer. Everyone involved with the Brewers organization hopes Axford will be the Brewers closer for years to come.

He certainly has the talent to do so; the question is whether he can handle the mental challenges that are unique to the closer’s role. But if the pressure becomes too much and history repeats itself for the Brewers, Axford could end up struggling in his sophomore season with the club.

Hopefully that won’t be the case, but if it is, Milwaukee fans will have to hope another pitcher can step in and provide a year of solid closing for the Brew Crew.

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Rickie Weeks dominated in 2010. His final stats of 112/29/83/11 and triple slash line of .269/.366/.464 were impressive to say the least.

According to Fangraphs, Rickie’s 6.1 WAR ranked him behind only Robinson Cano for qualified second basemen in 2010. So what makes me think he is a bust?

From 2003-2009, Rickie Weeks had averaged a .300 BABIP with a .247 AVG. Last year, he cashed in on a .332 BABIP for a .269 AVG. The .332 BABIP was unsupported by his 15.4 percent line-drive rate.

Prior to 2010, Rickie Weeks had never hit more than 16 home runs and his HR/FB rate was 12.5 percent. In 2010, he posted a HR/FB rate of 17.3 percent which is Dan Uggla and Alex Rodriguez territory. Rickie Weeks will not hit 29 home runs again.

Since he strikes out at such an alarming rate (28.3 percent in 2010), driving in 83 RBI from the leadoff spot in a NL lineup will be very difficult to replicate and scoring 112 runs won’t be any picnic either.

According to Hittracker, Rickie Weeks hit 11 “Just Enough” home runs last year compared to only four “No Doubts”. The nine other NL players who hit four “No Doubts” were, Colby Rasmus, Brian McCann, Hanley Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Will Venable, Brandon Phillips, Pedro Alvarez, Marlon Byrd, and Juan Uribe.

Of those nine players, not a single batter was lucky enough to hit as many “Just Enoughs” than Rickie Weeks. For comparison, the average number of  “Just Enoughs” for the nine players mentioned was 6.77.

Injuries have plagued Rickie Weeks throughout his career.

The only year he surpassed 475 official at bats was 2010. In 2006, he suffered a season-ending wrist injury. In 2007, he hit the DL for another wrist injury. In 2008, he landed on the DL for a left knee injury, and, in 2009, he had a long stint on the DL for another wrist injury.  

Keep in mind that these are only the DL stints. He has also missed games for minor issues such as a stomach virus, a thumb injury and index finger injury. Do you really think he would have played 160 games in 2010 if it wasn’t a contract year?

According to MockDraftCentral, Rickie’s current ADP is 40.5. Rickie Weeks was the 38th ranked player in Yahoo last year. 

By drafting him at pick 40, you are projecting him to repeat 2010!

He is being taken before Justin Upton (41.4), Andrew McCutchen (43.9), Adam Dunn (46), Buster Posey (45.1), Justin Morneau (50.2) and all but four starting pitchers.

For some reason, he is being drafted before other second basemen such as Dan Uggla (51.7) and Ian Kinsler (50.5).

Some second basemen I like to provide great value in mid-late rounds are, Brian Roberts (135.3), Aaron Hill (172.4), Gordon Beckham (221), Neil Walker (335.1) and Danny Espinosa (381.3).

Projection: .251 AVG, 89 R, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 13 SB

Previous Bust Selections: Derek Jeter, Jayson Werth

Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is a Senior Writer for 4thandHome.com where this, and other work, can be found. Additionally, he is co-host of The 4th and Home Show on Blog Talk Radio.

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With the rash of injuries that have hit the Milwaukee Brewers this spring, Crew fans are wondering when it’s going to stop. 

It seems like it’s a case of “when it rains, it pours,” after Shaun Marcum left his start against the Chicago White Sox early.

After working three scoreless innings and only allowing one hit, Marcum complained of shoulder stiffness and was removed from the game.

He missed his next start and was shut down from throwing for almost a week.

Brewers manager Ron Roenicke announced that Marcum would start on Saturday against the Mariners. The club is hoping the tightness he felt against the White Sox is just a small bump in the road to a huge season for Milwaukee.

With Zack Greinke out until at least the latter part of April, the Brewers can not afford to lose another front line starter from the staff.

Marcum has had experience with being injured. After a breakout year in 2007, arm problems in 2008 led to him being put on the Disabled List and sent down to the minor leagues.

In September, he was called up when the rosters expanded and seemed to be back in form. He was taken out of a start on September 19 of that year because of elbow pain.

The Jays soon released the information that Marcum would have to undergo Tommy John surgery and may miss the entire 2009 season.

He did not miss the entire year, but he pitched the whole season in the minor leagues. To prevent injury, he was shut down late in that season.

In March of 2010, Marcum was named the Opening Day starter, replacing Roy Halliday who had been traded.

He went on to win 13 games for the Blue Jays and prove himself to be the ace of that staff.

Will his injury linger and drag him down in 2011?

As of now, it appears he’s ready to take the mound again. The Brewers wouldn’t send him out if they had any concerns about his long term health.

The stiffness was in the shoulder area and not in the elbow, where his previous injury had been.

Milwaukee will get more answers Saturday, but for now, they seemed to have dodged a bullet.

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Thank God.

Those are the two words I uttered when I first heard Ken Macha would not be back with the Brewers for a third season.

That euphoria lasted all of five minutes because then I found out who was going to replace him.

It took a little while to find out who the candidates even were. Two prominent mentions were Bob Brenly (gag!) and Bobby Valentine. I did not want either of them anywhere near the Brewers. Then there was talk of Joey Cora, who wouldn’t have been all bad.

Then came the name Ron Roenicke. My only recollection of him was on a baseball card I had as a kid.

Not much later, more information on Roenicke began trickling in. He was on Mike Scioscia’s staff in Anaheim, and he favored an aggressive style of baseball. Those were certainly two positives.

Scioscia’s two previous bench coaches, Joe Maddon and Bud Black, have gone on to tremendous success managing the Rays and Padres respectively. Could Roenicke do the same?

I have listened to what Roenicke and others have said and not said in the few short months since he has been manager of the Brewers. Everything I hear leads me to believe he will succeed and be the 2011 NL Manager of the Year.

1) Aggressive Style, Yet Calm

Those are two seemingly contradictory notions, but they can work in harmony within the right personality. Roenicke has said from day one that he plans to be aggressive on the bases and constantly put pressure on the opposing defense.

Pressure doesn’t mean running around the bases willy-nilly. To Roenicke, it means being aggressive going from first to third and always taking that extra base. It means hitting and running and bunting for base hits.

While willing to be aggressive, Roenicke won’t pull the plug on that philosophy if someone happens to get thrown out. He knows the risk, and he’s willing to take it. That sense of calm hasn’t been present in the recent past in the Brewers dugout.

Under the previous regime, one mistake meant a shift from aggressiveness to ultra conservatism. That type of panic was a major problem.

2) Positivity

Right or wrong, this spring Ryan Braun made some comments about the negativity that permeated the Brewers clubhouse last year. Other players, including Corey Hart and Prince Fielder, reinforced that sentiment in a slightly more diplomatic way. No matter how the message was sent, it was still the same.

In multiple forums, including on MLBTV’s 30 Clubs in 30 Days, several Brewers players have used the word fun when describing their first spring camp under Ron Roenicke. I thought spring training wasn’t supposed to be fun.

Braun has been up front saying that they are playing a game, and it is supposed to be fun. He’s got a point. Games are meant to be fun. Who knew baseball could be fun in Milwaukee?

3) Open Communication

Coaches under the tutelage of Mike Scioscia become aware of how important people skills are in being a successful major league manager.

After Roenicke was hired and before spring training began, he invited Ryan Braun to lunch. The two live near each other in California, so it seemed to be an easy way for Roenicke to get the pulse of the Brewers from one of its leaders.

Braun said he appreciated that the new manager reached out and sought his opinion. An important line of communication was opened early on.

During spring training, Roenicke has made a point of talking to each player on a regular basis to find out exactly the best way each player can get ready for the regular season. No one knows what a player needs more than that player himself. Roenicke is approachable and more than willing to listen to his players.

Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has characterized the previous two Brewers managers as being wound too tight (Ned Yost) and as “grandpa-grumpy” (Ken Macha). Both of their personalities rubbed many of the players the wrong way. Ron Roenicke is clearly neither of those.

4) Trust and Respect

In my estimation trust and respect are probably the most important components of a solid player/manager relationship, but without open communication, neither of these would be possible.

The Brewers players, most notably Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, felt they couldn’t count on Ken Macha to stand up for them and as a result didn’t respect him or even like him just a little bit.

Macha tried to play things as if he had an open-door policy for his players in 2010. It was easy to claim that when he already knew the players didn’t respect him enough to want to talk to him. Then he tried to put it all off on the players, as if he did everything he could to be open to communication, especially with the team’s stars.

Macha never once took any responsibility for the poor lines of communication. When Jason Kendall had issues with Macha in Oakland, that should have told Doug Melvin something.

Ron Roenicke is the complete antithesis of Macha. He truly wants to communicate and get to know his players. He put his trust in the players right from the start.

Roenicke has made clear that he wants the players to come to him when they feel they need a day off this spring. Not only that, Roenicke has been open to players asking for more playing time. Fielder took advantage of that when he felt he needed more at-bats. Roenicke didn’t hesitate to slide Prince into that day’s lineup.

Roenicke has shown trust in his players to not take advantage of that policy, and the players haven’t done that in the least. They have continued working even when they weren’t playing in games. The players realize that when the manager puts his trust in them, they need to do the same with their manager.

Players appreciate not being treated like little kids and constantly being told what to do. When they are treated like adults, odds are they will act like adults.

5) The Starting Rotation

I couldn’t ignore this extremely important change in the Brewers team. We all know what the starting rotation has looked like for some time minus the rental of CC Sabathia.

In the minimal number of games Ben Sheets was healthy, he was a stud and a true No. 1 starter. Yovani Gallardo has been good but is still not considered a No. 1 in my eyes until he becomes more consistent. Signing Randy Wolf was a decent move, but he is only a No. 3 or 4 starter.

Finally, this offseason Doug Melvin got aggressive and brought in two very good starting pitchers in Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.

I won’t pretend things may have been different under previous managers if they had this starting staff, but then again, maybe not. If you can’t talk to your manager or trust and respect him, it doesn’t matter who is on the mound. The team is still going to struggle.

Ron Roenicke has been the bench coach on a team with a dynamic starting staff. That can only help him in connecting with the Brewers starters. It’s a proven fact that better pitching leads to more wins, which will make the Brewers’ run at the NL Central crown that much more probable.

Going down this list, I think you can see why I think the way I do. Roenicke has a good baseball on-field philosophy. He has the right personality. He values communication, trust, respect and positivity throughout the organization.

He will let the players speak their minds and be themselves—in fact, he encourages it. Roenicke will also have one of the better starting rotations in the entire National League.

How can you not view him as being one of the favorites for NL Manager of the Year? I do.

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The Milwaukee Brewers enter the 2011 season with high hopes and expectations of contending in the National League Central.

The Brewers have gone all in this year. They held onto first baseman Prince Fielder, who will be a free agent after the season, and made a splash with offseason acquisitions such as Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum and Takashi Saito.

Fans can count on some things from the Brewers in 2011. Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Corey Hart will provide steady offensive production. The catcher position will once again be the weakest link in an otherwise potent offense. The sausage races will continue to be a popular attraction at Miller Park.

However, several key factors will determine the fate of the Brewers’ season. Read on to find out what needs to happen for the Brewers to make a deep postseason run.

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Milwaukee Brewers (2010 record: 77-85)

The Milwaukee Brewers front office entered the offseason with one primary task: improve the pitching staff. The club finished last season with the third-worst ERA in the National League—the primary reason the club finished with a sub-.500 record.

General Manager Mark Attanasio immersed himself in his task as soon as the offseason got underway, and by Christmas he had remade his starting rotation—trading away some of his building blocks for the future in order to obtain a pair of cornerstones for his pitching staff.

Shortly after Thanksgiving, he traded mercurial second base prospect Brett Lawrie (whom the organization had grown disenchanted with) to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Shaun Marcum.

Then, just two weeks later, he gave his club and his fan base a second Christmas present, shipping starting shortstop Alcides Escobar and three more prospects (speedy outfielder Lorenzo Cain, No. 1 prospect Jake Odorizzi and fireballer Jeremy Jeffress) to the KC Royals for former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt.

While Attanasio may have traded away some of the organization’s future, there is no doubt he dramatically improved its prospects for the immediate future by making the club a contender for the 2011 postseason.

Notable additions: SS Yuniesky Betancourt, RHP Zack Greinke, RHP Shaun Marcum, RHP Takashi Saito

Notable subtractions: OF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, RP Trevor Hoffman, RHP Jeremy Jeffress, 2B Brett Lawrie

The offense:

Catcher: Jonathan Lucroy

Infield: Prince Fielder (1B), Rickie Weeks (2B), Yuniesky Betancourt (SS) and Casey McGehee (3B)

Outfield: Ryan Braun (LF), Carlos Gomez (CF) and Corey Hart (RF)

The Brewers offense ranked fourth in the league in runs scored (750) last year and will almost certainly remain very dangerous in the upcoming season. The lineup features five batters who have the ability to hit 25-plus home runs and drive in 100-plus runs.

The anchor of the offensive attack is 1B Prince Fielder, the impending free agent who had his worst season in terms of productivity since 2006. He established a career-low in batting average (.261) and came close to equaling his career low in both homers and RBI.

It was not the kind of season he wanted to have while trying to convince the Brewers to commit to a long-term contract for his services.

With Fielder potentially departing via free agency at the end of the season, LF Ryan Braun is poised to replace him as the primary cog in the lineup. He hit .304, with 25 HR and 103 RBI last year in what was considered by many to be a disappointing campaign (his home run total has decreased each year since his ROY effort in 2007).

His contact rate and hit rate are very solid, but there are a couple of areas of concern for fantasy baseballers with respect to his home run totals—his HR/FB rate dipped to a career low (at 14 percent, it is just 2/3 of what it was back in 2007) and his ground ball rate (48 percent) has increased more than 20 percent since ’07—Neither of these trends will support a 35-to-40 home run season in 2011.

RF Corey Hart posted career-best home run and RBI totals and had a nice spike in his batting average, paradoxically those numbers in spite of the fact his contact rate regressed to a career-worst (75 percent). It’s unlikely he’ll duplicate this level of productivity moving forward, as his HR/FB rate (17 percent) was well above his career rate (11 percent).

2B Rickie Weeks was healthy and compiled 600 at-bats (651) for the first time, well above his previous high (475). The extra playing time translated into a career-best total in homers, ribbies and runs—and in the process he set club records for a second baseman in each of these categories.

3B Casey McGehee converted his full-time gig into a 20/100 campaign in spite of a significant spike (plus-9 percent) in his ground ball rate. He will need to elevate the ball in 2011 to take full advantage of his power potential.

The rest of the lineup is lacking. Lucroy makes great contact (85 percent last year) but offers little in the way of power. Gomez has a sub-par approach at the plate (.289 OBP) and thus has been unable to take advantage of his best tool (speed) because he does not get on base with sufficient frequency.

Betancourt puts the bat on the ball with the best of them (career contact rate of 90 percent) but has an abysmal hit rate (career 27 percent), suggesting he often puts the ball in play just for the sake of getting it in play. He doesn’t draw walks as often as he needs to (4 percent BB rate).

The pitching staff:

Starting rotation: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, Chris Narveson

Closer: John Axford

The team had only two dependable starters last season (Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf). The front office knew the club would have to upgrade on the likes of David Bush and Manny Parra if they hope to compete.

Enter Marcum and Greinke. They make the Brewers instant threats in the NL Central. While the rotation likely won’t compete with the Phillies or the Giants as the best in the league, it certainly should be one of the top four or five rotations in the league.

Most pundits knew there would be some regression in Greinke’s performance last year, as his 2009 Cy Young peformance was largely driven by an other-worldly strand rate (81 percent).

The baseball gods made him pay by imposing just a 67 percent strand rate on him last season. Under normal circumstances you would expect his numbers to trend toward a normalized rate of 73 percent, but in consideration of the fact he will make the jump to the NL Central—where he will no longer face the DH—it seems likely his strand rate will improve into the low-70′s.

The whole pick-up baseketball fiasco will cost him a month of the season—pity. Regardless, he should still be able to win 14 or 15 games and post an ERA in the high 2′s or low 3′s—assuming he doesn’t suffer from Jacoby Ellsbury Syndrome.

Marcum is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. He posted excellent numbers against the tougher lineups in the AL East. While his elbow remains a concern, as was underscored by his midseason visit to the DL last year, he is also likely to see an improvement in both his win total and ERA in 2011.

Gallardo was the staff ace but now may be no more than the third-best starter on the club. He strikes out hitters with great regularity, but struggles with his control (a 4.1 BB for every nine innings pitched over the last two years).

Those extra base runners cause his ERA to elevate to a much higher number than his talent suggests he’s capable of posting. Wolf had a rough start to last year, but he improved as the year went on as he found his command (fewer BBs, more Ks). Narveson’s stats looked brutal, but his peripherals illustrate he has significant potential (his strand rate was just 66 percent last year) as he compiled an ERA of just 4.07.

The hard-throwing Axford inherited the closer’s role when Trevor Hoffman scuffled last spring. He posted solid numbers in his first year as closer, posting 24 saves in 27 save opportunities and holding opposing hitters to a .204 batting average.

He will need to reduce his walk rate (4.1 BB per 9 IP) to maximize his value to the team. Southpaw Zack Braddock and righty Kameron Loe both have excellent raw stuff and, although unproven, should provide good depth to a bullpen that also includes veteran RHPs LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito.

Prediction for 2011: 2nd place (88-74)

There is a lot to like here, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Brew Crew finishes the year in first place. There is potential for quite a bit of improvement from several hitters, and the presence of Greinke and Marcum improve the rotation exponentially (assuming good health). Narveson could be a sleeper and is someone to watch during spring training.

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Top Five Prospects:

1. Mark Rogers, RHP
2. Wily Peralta, RHP
3. Tyler Thornburg, RHP
4. Scooter Gennett, INF
5. Cody Scarpetta, RHP

Rogers was selected by the Brewers in the first round (fifth overall) of the 2004 draft. He struggled throughout his early career in Low-A and High-A, earning himself a demotion to rookie ball in the middle of his third year. A pair of shoulder surgeries cost him both the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Not the typical resume of a top prospect.

But he returned to the baseball diamond with a vengeance when he was healthy. He posted impressive numbers in High-A in 2009 and then excelled in Double-A last year, earning a September call-up (10 games, 2.70 ERA with the Brewers).

He relies on a lively, mid-90s fastball that will touch 97 on occasion. He also has a knee-buckling curve ball and a slider with decent bite. The problem is he lacks command of all of his pitches and struggles to locate his pitches within the strike zone, but that isn’t surprising for a pitcher who has lost as much development time as Rogers.

Most pundits believe he is destined for the bullpen if he doesn’t improve his command, so 2011 will be an importast year for him.

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