Kuzul

John Axford had an impressive debut season in 2010 when he filled in for Trevor Hoffman as the Milwaukee Brewers closer.

Equally impressive was his mustache which rivaled the infamous beard of Brian Wilson and revived memories of renowned Brewers closer and former Cy Young Award winner, Rollie Fingers.

Axford went 24-3 in save opportunities and compiled 76 K in only 58 innings for a 11.65 K/9—good for fourth best amongst closers. He maintained a 2.60 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in that time.

His performance was one of the few bright spots in the Brewers season and a relief considering the struggles of one of baseball’s all-time greatest relievers.

Now John Axford has become the primary closer for the Milwaukee Brewers entering the 2011 season. 

The promotion might seem like a glorious achievement for the longtime minor leaguer, but in reality, inheriting the Brewers closer role has been something of a curse over the last 10 years.

In fact, you might say it is career suicide as the majority of pitchers to have recorded a save for the team since 2001 have gone on to either immediately retire or suffer severe drop offs in performance.

There might be no such thing as curses in the real world, but in the superstitious sport of baseball they are most definitely real and this particular curse began with Curtis Leskanic.

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John Axford came out of nowhere to save 24 games for the Brewers last year.

He also sported an 8-2 record with a 2.48 WHIP and an 1.19 ERA. He also recorded 76 strikeouts in 58 innings for a rock solid 11.8 strikeout per nine innings ratio.

Axford was good before the All-Star Break going 5-1 with ten saves, a 3.12 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .232 BAA. He was brilliant afterwards though, as he went 3-1 with 14 saves, a 1.97 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and a .180 BAA.

When you consider that Axford split time with Trevor Hoffman, who recorded ten saves of his own last year, the potential is even greater in his first full season with the closer gig.

Especially when you factor in the improvements made to their pitching staff with the acquisition of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.

So is John Axford ready to become an elite closer? Maybe, but I would be a little cautious with him.

For starters, he does have control issues. He walked 27 batters in 58 innings, or 4.2 per nine innings. His 1.19 WHIP was solid last year, but he posted a 1.43 innings to start the year for Triple-A Nashville, which matched his WHIP in his cup of coffee with the Brewers in 2009.

His 1.30 WHIP for Double-A Huntsville and 1.27 for Triple-A Nashville in 2009 are far from dominating.

At the root of his high WHIP totals is his control. He sported a 6.06 BB/9 ratio in his minor league career. He even struggled with it at the collegiate level, walking 118 batters in 144 innings (7.4 BB/9) for Notre Dame.

If he continues to walk batters at an alarming rate, he could find himself out of the closer job, especially with LaTroy Hawkins (87 career saves) and Takashi Saito (84 career saves) waiting in the wings.

I don’t mean to be all doom and gloom with Axford. He does have some serious potential. I just want to make sure you see the whole picture before selecting him on draft day.

What are your thoughts on John Axford?

Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings

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Prince Fielder is to 2011 as Adrian Gonzalez was to 2010. Whether or not he gets traded before the deadline is completely dependent on the Milwaukee Brewer’s place in the NL Central standings by July.

Teams like the Milwaukee Brewers usually need to pick and choose who to spend their money on. Like the Padres, did they feel like they would sink into the abyss if they don’t sign Adrian Gonzalez to a large contract?

Or did they feel like it was better for the franchise to trade him for some prospects like they did with Jake Peavy in 2009 and try to replace at least 65 percent of Adrian’s production with cheap signings and shift to a more pitching and defense team with a small-ball oriented lineup?

Prince Fielder had a bit of a down year Pujols-style last year with 32 home runs, 83 RBI and a .261 batting average. Unlike the Padres’ Adrian Gonzalez situation, the Brewers have other power outlets in their lineup other than Prince.

He is just one of five Milwaukee hitters with more than 20 homers and 80 RBI. They locked up one of the five by signing second baseman Ricky Weeks to a five-year $50 million contract just recently. They already have Ryan Braun locked up, and they will have third baseman Casey McGehee for a while.

And to top all that off, they now have a newly assembled young and proven starting rotation to take care of.

Truth of the matter is, the Milwaukee Brewers don’t really need Prince Fielder. They want to have him, they would like to have him, but they don’t need him.

Done right, a Prince Fielder trade in July might actually help the team during it’s playoff push.

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Prince is to 2011 as Adrian Gonzalez is to 2010. Whether or not he gets traded before the deadline is completely dependent on the Milwaukee Brewers’ place in the NL Central standings by July.

Teams like the Milwaukee Brewers usually need to pick and choose who to spend their money on.

Take the Padres for example: did they feel like they would sink into the abyss if they don’t sign Adrian Gonzalez to a large contract, or they feel like it was better for the franchise to trade him for some prospects like they did with Jake Peavy in 2009? Could they try to replace at least 65 percent of Gonzalez’s production with cheap signings and shift to a more pitching and defense team with a small-ball-oriented lineup?

Prince Fielder had a bit of a down year Pujols-style last year with 32 home runs, 83 RBI and a .261 batting average. Unlike the Padres’ Gonzalez situation, the Brewers have power outlets in their lineup other than Prince.

Fielder is just one of five Milwaukee hitters with more than 20 homers and 80 RBI. They locked up one of the five by signing second baseman Ricky Weeks to a five-year, $50M contract just recently. They already have Ryan Braun locked up, and they will have third baseman Casey McGehee for a while.

And to top all that off, they now have a newly assembled, young and proven starting rotation to take care of.

Truth of the matter is, the Milwaukee Brewers don’t really need Prince Fielder. They want to have him, they would like to have him—but they don’t need him.

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Now, I’ve never considered myself a pessimist by any means. However, the Milwaukee Brewers put forth a dismal effort last season.

The 2010 season, let it be known, yielded as many question marks about the future of the franchise as positive associations. Yes, it was that kind of a year for the Brewers.

Embarrassing pitching, disappointing offensive production and questionable coaching gave way to repetitive criticism on a day-to-day basis throughout the early stages of Milwaukee’s offseason.

However, things have taken a turn for the better, as I’m sure you’re aware of.

One of the most notable offseason transactions involved former AL Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke, and it has put the Brew Crew atop a majority of preseason rankings—and deservedly so.

So as spring training draws nearer by the hour, let’s take a look at 10 reasons why the Brewers could be looking down at the rest of the National League come November.

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As Brewers fans slowly thaw this spring from a cold and unforgiving winter, they will be pleasantly surprised to see a Milwaukee team that addressed a much needed weak spot this offseason: Starting pitching. 

With the additions of Zack Greinke and Sean Marcum to a rotation already consisting Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf, the Brewers may now have enough pitching to compete with division rivals St. Louis and Cincinnati. 

The question facing the Brewers is can the revamped starting rotation help the team win the division in 2011, possibly the final season with soon to be free agent Prince Fielder.

In addition, will Zack Greinke prosper in his first season with the team and his first season in the National League? 

Key Acquisitions: 

SP Zack Greinke (Free Agent)

SP Sean Marcum (Trade w/ Blue Jays)

RP Takashi Saito (Free Agent)

SS Yuniesky Betancourt (Free Agent)

Key Losses:  

RP Trevor Hoffman (Retirement)

SP Chris Capuano (Free Agent)

Who to Target 

Not surprisingly, the Brewers’ top two offensive weapons are also the top two fantasy options for the team.

Ryan Braun is a top five outfielder that is a triple threat for fantasy owners, as he is a powerful hitter with a hard to find combination of speed and high average. Braun will most likely be drafted in the first two rounds of a 12 team snake draft and will be a nice bookend outfielder and solid foundation for any fantasy team. 

The second blue chip fantasy player for the Brewers is Prince Fielder, the team’s imposing first baseman. Although Fielder is coming off a down year, in which he had career lows both slugging percentage (.471) and batting average (.261), he is in a contract year and will likely put up monster numbers as he auditions for potential suitors. 

Yovani Gallardo and newly acquired Zack Greinke are the top pitchers to target, with Gallardo being the safer of the two options.

Greinke is a talented pitcher with filthy pitches; however, he struggled in his last season with Kansas City and it is unclear how well he will respond to the move to the senior circuit.

Sleeper 

It was difficult to pick a sleeper for the Brewers, as the team does not have one player that sticks out above the rest as a potential break-out candidate for 2011. 

By default, I chose Carlos Gomez, the once highly touted center fielder who has stellar speed and can flash the glove, but lacks discipline and production at the plate.  

As a career .246 hitter, Gomez has been a disappointment for those who thought he would mature into a possible 20/20 threat. 

It appears he is going to be given one last chance this season as the team’s center fielder and may finally become fantasy worthy in 2011.

This article was originally published on www.kramericasports.com, the home of free fantasy news, rankings and advice.

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With the 26^th ranked ERA in the majors last year, the Brew Crew went to work this off-season to improve their rotation. Sought-after pitcher Zack Greinke is coming off a disappointing 2010, but was last year truly a fluke? Or will the Newer Brewer Shaun Marcum outpitch Greinke this season? It sure is getting exciting in Milwaukee this year.

Baseball’s 2009 AL Cy Young winner is heading to the National League. Greinke will take his 2008 and 2009 stellar years with him to Milwaukee to take on the rest of the NL Central. 

Greinke owners were annoyed all year by his shoddy numbers and lack of production. He went 10-14 in 220 IP with a 4.17 ERA and 181 strikeouts. 

What we can take away from last season was his strikeouts, low home run total, and consistent walk rate. Greinke was able to strikeout more that 180 batters last season, and also allowed less than 20 home runs despite his 4.17 ERA. Along with his 55 walks (56 in 2008 and 51 in 2009), it looks like Greinke can definitely rebound and have a successful 2011 season. 

I think Greinke will be a top-20 pitcher this year, and can possibly see 17 or 18 wins if Milwaukee’s offense can come alive.

Milwaukee’s second ace of the rotation is Yovani Gallardo. The 25-year-old stud is entering 2011 with two consecutive great seasons under his belt. 

Gallardo’s 2009 and 2010 were similar in terms of numbers, but the best part is his health. The injury bug has plagued him for a few seasons in his career, but Gallardo seems to be healthier than ever and ready to go. He has serious potential to be a top-20 starter in 2011. 

One concern is his poor performance after the All Star break last season. Even though he went 6-3, Gallardo’s ERA was 5.77 after the break. 

I think we can expect another solid year from him though. He should be able to get 14 wins, 200 strikeouts, a 3.70 ERA, and 185 IP once again.

One of the Brewers’ newest arrivals is starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. 

Continue Reading >>>

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This is THE year for the Brewers. Just ask anyone. If they are going to win, it will be in 2011. It is a foregone conclusion that Prince Fielder will be leaving via free agency in 2012. If you’re Doug Melvin, you’re probably already coming up with a plan of attack for 2012 and beyond. At least I hope so, because that’s what good General Managers do.

Melvin made the right moves this offseason, but he can’t afford to take any missteps moving forward. The Brewers need to put their money where they will get the most bang for their buck. Dropping a tidy sum for multiple years on Rickie Weeks will not help the Brewers moving forward.

I like Rickie as a player and a person. I certainly won’t claim otherwise, but there are three specific reasons that make keeping Weeks long-term an impractical notion.

1. A player who has played in only 65 percent of the possible games in a six-year career, is a terrible long-term investment.

You may have heard this before, but Weeks has only played in 130 games or more once in his career and that was in 2010. He put up great numbers, and he is a unique player. That is valuable to any team. The problem here is that you can’t count on Rickie to be in the lineup day in and day out.

If you don’t believe you can count on someone, why would you invest millions of dollars in him?

2. Even after all the work Weeks has put in, he is still a below-average defensive second baseman.

To most people it seems that he has improved so much, he must be pretty good by now. In actuality, he was so bad it was impossible for him not to get better. That’s like a 500 lb. person losing 100 lbs. It’s a major improvement, but still not very good. During the 2010 season, Weeks was third in errors for a second baseman in the NL.

3. Spending a lot of money on Weeks will make it harder to keep a solid pitching rotation together.

Now that Doug Melvin has finally realized that pitching wins championships, that is where he needs to invest the money. He needs to sign Shaun Marcum to an extension, which Marcum is open to. At the time of his trade to Milwaukee, Marcum and his agent were talking contract extension with the Blue Jays.

Not extending Weeks would also leave some wiggle room for an eventual contract extension with Zack Greinke as well. The Brewers would have flexibility with their payroll, as well as acquiring draft pick(s) upon Weeks signing with another club.

The Brewers and Rickie Weeks’ agent, Greg Genske, had recently been discussing a contract extension, but those talks have been tabled for the time being. In my estimation, that is the prudent way to go to help maintain the future health of the franchise.

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Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Prince Fielder is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get.

Since 2006, his first full season in the majors, Fielder has produced HR totals of 28, 50, 34, 46 and 32. He’s also posted RBI totals ranging from 81 (2006) to 141 (2009), while batting as low as .261 (2010) and as high as .299 (2009). Notwithstanding, he’s never missed more than five games in any of his first five seasons.

Despite these varying totals, Fielder has posted incredibly consistent peripherals in recent seasons:

Strikeout Rate

• 2008: 22.8%
• 2009: 23.4%
• 2010: 23.9%
• Career: 22.8%

Contact Rate

• 2008: 75.7%
• 2009: 76.9%
• 2010: 76.4%
• Career: 76.2%

Further, Fielder has increased his walk rates progressively over the last three seasons:

• 2008: 12.1%
• 2009: 15.3%
• 2010: 16.0%

In preparation for last season’s big board, we uncovered some interesting data at Hit Tracker Online that suggested a regression in Fielder’s home run total from 2009 to 2010. We included that data in Fielder’s 2010 projection, which we know now to have been an accurate prediction.

This year, the data suggests a bounce-back season as Fielder enters his age 27 season. He’s the sixth-best first baseman, worthy of being drafted No. 15 overall.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Despite failing to hit 30-plus home runs for the first time in his four-year career last season, Ryan Braun remained among the top fantasy producers at a very deep outfield position. His 2010 stat line (101 runs, 25 HRs, 103 RBI, 14 steals, .304 batting average) was perhaps the worst of his career, which speaks volumes to Braun’s potential entering his age 27 season.

Although Braun hit only 25 homers last year, he set a career-high in doubles with 45, the fifth most in baseball.

One theory which could explain Braun’s “off” season stems from being plunked by Tommy Hanson on May 10 last year. He missed the next two games, and was arguably never the same after, especially in the power department:

• Before May 10: 32 games, 31 runs, 6 HRs, 28 RBI, 18/18 K/BB ratio, .359/.443/.594
• After May 10: 125 games, 70 runs, 19 HRs, 75 RBI, 33/87 K/BB ratio, .289/.342/.490

Braun wasn’t DL’d, but the Tommy Hanson pitch he took off the elbow clearly affected his production at the plate for the remaining four and a half months of the season. Given that he’s finally recovered, another 30-plus HR campaign is most certainly on the horizon.

If that isn’t enough to convince you that Braun is the number one fantasy outfielder, consider the growth in his plate discipline peripherals since he entered the league in 2007. A free-swinger who took just 29 walks in his rookie season, Braun has increased his walk rate and decreased his strikeout rate in each of his first four seasons:

BB%

• 2007: 5.9%
• 2008: 6.3%
• 2009: 8.1%
• 2010: 8.2%

K%

• 2007: 24.8%
• 2008: 21.1%
• 2009: 19.1%
• 2010: 17.0%

Similarly, Braun’s contact rate and swinging strike rate have improved each season:

Contact Rate

• 2007: 76.3%
• 2008: 79.2%
• 2009: 80.8%
• 2010: 81.8%

Swinging Strike Rate

• 2007: 12.1%
• 2008: 10.5%
• 2009: 8.7%
• 2010: 8.4%

The law of averages (among many other things which we’ll get into in a later post) suggest a regression for the top outfielder in 2010, Carlos Gonzalez, paving the way for Ryan Braun to be drafted as the number one outfielder in 2011.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera
• No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki
• No. 5: Adrian Gonzalez
• No. 6: David Wright
• No. 7: Evan Longoria

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com