Kuzul

The annual winter meetings have come and gone, but what happened in those few days will have long-lasting implications.

Guys such as Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes, who are free agents following the upcoming season, have to be licking their chops at some of the dollars handed out, as that will bode well for them.

Long-term, what does each man have to look forward to, and who would provide the best bang for their buck?

Let’s rewind for a second: Jose Reyes, who is 27 years old, is a talented ballplayer, but he’s one of the faces of what has turned out to be a very disappointing New York Mets team the past few years.

Injuries short-circuited his 2009 season, and he played 133 games this past year but still had oblique issues to go on top of a .321 on-base percentage, his worst figure since 2005.

For a player who relies on speed, his various injuries certainly are troubling, but he’s still young enough to recover and have a nice career, but for whom?

A conversation between the Mets and Giants occurred last week, as it pertained to the services of Reyes, but what the Giants had to offer didn’t meet the requirements of the Mets.

In shifting the focus over to the big bopper in Milwaukee, Prince Fielder, 26, is the prototypical slugging first baseman, so much so that 32 home runs was considered to be a bit of a down year for him.

As he enters the final year of his contract, he sees what Adrian Gonzales and Carlos Pena got, and with Scott Boras representing him, he has to be feeling pretty good.

The Brewers, a mid-market team, have a tough decision to make.  Do they bank on trying to re-sign him after the season, or do they trade him and get some value out of it, as opposed to possibly losing him for next to nothing?

With Boras as his agent, it doesn’t look good for the Brewers, and trading him might be the direction to go.

He can fetch a lot more than Reyes, at this point, who needs to have a bounce back season to regain his past hoopla.

Power-hitting first baseman are a big part of what championship ball clubs are built of, so anyone looking for a deal may be advised to look towards towards Fielder.

At this point, he’s the better trading chip, with the better long-term prospects.  He will be the most costly of the two, yes, but his track record suggests that unlike Reyes, he can back up those dollar signs with consistent year-to-year production.

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According to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Brewers GM Doug Melvin confirmed that the Brewers were one of the teams that met with Carl Pavano and his agent, Tom O’Connel, on Tuesday.

Melvin was rather tight lipped about the meeting saying, “I don’t want to get into anything other than we met with him.”

According to most, Pavano is considered the next best remaining free-agent starter after Cliff Lee and that’s not saying much. This year’s free-agent class is practically devoid of impact arms and probably the next best one, Jorge de la Rosa, has already re-signed with the Colorado Rockies.

If the Brewers are serious in their pursuit of Pavano, they will have competition. There have been multiple reports that the Minnesota Twins are making a strong push to re-sign the 34 year-old right-hander. There have also been reports that the Washington Nationals have serious interest as well. I would assume that their interest may diminish if they are able to pry Cliff Lee away from his other suitors.

Many believe that Pavano and his agent are seeking a three-year deal in the $30-$40 million range. For a pitcher with a lengthy injury history like Pavano’s, the risk with that type of deal is enormous to a team like the Brewers.

The Brewers have been through this before. This stinks a bit like that massive failure that was Jeff Suppan. If Melvin is serious and spends that kind of money on Pavano, he needs to be prepared for the backlash he will receive from Brewer Nation.

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LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — On the floor here at the Winter Meetings, I heard reports that three teams are interested in Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder.

With Jayson Werth signing a seven-year deal for $126 million and the Red Sox’ reported seven-year, $154 million extension for Adrian Gonzalez, the Brewers realize they will never be able to re-sign the pending free agent.

Those teams interested in Fielder appear to be the Chicago White Sox, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Baltimore Orioles. Both the White Sox and Orioles are without first basemen, although the Sox probably will end up re-signing Paul Konerko.

The Dodgers have James Loney at first but appear to be underwhelmed by his play. Loney provides good defense and good hitting ability, but not much power.

I was a little surprised the Chicago Cubs were not on that list of potential trade partners since they were very interested in Adrian Gonzalez. But with the Cubs and Brewers both playing in the NL Central, it might make the Cubbies trading for Fielder a touchy prospect.

One team for which Fielder would make a lot of sense is the Washington Nationals.

They definitely have money to spend and the prospects to trade, plus GM Mike Rizzo and the Lerner ownership group has a great working relationship with Prince’s agent, Scott Boras. Over the last two seasons, the sides have agreed to big deals with first overall picks Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper and also just completed the Werth contract.

The Nationals also now have two, right-handed sluggers in Ryan Zimmerman and Werth back-to-back in that lineup.

Adding the left-handed-hitting Fielder would significantly impact that lineup and break up the two right-handed bats.

While the White Sox and Orioles certainly have the prospects to trade with Milwaukee, what they’d have to give up might hurt them in the long run.

The Sox would certainly have to trade away Gordon Beckham and the Orioles would likely have to give up some of their vaunted young pitchers.

The Dodgers have the players to make a deal, but while they have spent much more recently than everyone has anticipated, those numbers pale in comparison to what Boras would want for an extension.

There are not many teams with the prospects and financial wherewithal to obtain Fielder and get him to sign a Gonzalez-type extension.

The Nationals are a team to watch as the negotiations for Fielder build, especially if the Nationals fail to add another bat.

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According to Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com, the Brewers and Dodgers are discussing a possible trade that would send 1B Prince Fielder to the Dodgers in exchange for 1B James Loney and closer Jonathan Broxton.

The Dodgers are a team in need of power and run production which Fielder would provide. Fielder’s HR, RBI, BB and OBP numbers would all dwarf the other player’s in the somewhat anemic Dodger’s offense.

While the Brewers would not be getting starting pitching in return, they would be getting a very capable 1B and a once-dominant closer. While Jon Axford acquitted himself admirably in the closer’s role for the Brewers, Broxton would be solid insurance if Axford were to falter in 2011.

The deal makes sense for both sides. Based on what I had been hearing, I am a bit surprised the Brewers would get as much as is being discussed. If Broxton can regain his form, this could end up being a steal for the Brewers especially if Fielder walks as a free-agent.

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According to Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com, the Brewers and Dodgers are discussing a possible trade that would send 1B Prince Fielder to the Dodgers in exchange for 1B James Loney and closer Jonathan Broxton.

The Dodgers are a team in need of power and run production which Fielder would provide. Fielder’s HR, RBI, BB and OBP numbers would all dwarf the other player’s in the somewhat anemic Dodger’s offense.

While the Brewers would not be getting starting pitching in return, they would be getting a very capable 1B and a once-dominant closer. While Jon Axford acquitted himself admirably in the closer’s role for the Brewers, Broxton would be solid insurance if Axford were to falter in 2011.

The deal makes sense for both sides. Based on what I had been hearing, I am a bit surprised the Brewers would get as much as is being discussed. If Broxton can regain his form, this could end up being a steal for the Brewers especially if Fielder walks as a free-agent.

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According to “multiple sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity”, ESPNLosAngeles.com’s Tony Jackson wrote on Monday afternoon that the Milwaukee Brewers are “actively involved in discussions” with the Los Angeles Dodgers on a trade that would send rotund first baseman Prince Fielder to the Dodgers for James Loney and Jonathan Broxton.

The Brewers would be wise to try and move Fielder, since they likely will not be able to afford him long-term. Fielder’s body type may not hold up long enough for him to be a safe gamble on an extended contract anyway.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are looking for offense and an upgrade at first base. Loney is coming off a season that could best be described as “meh”, with a lack of power despite solid defense.

The 26-year-old fielder has averaged 40 homers over the past four seasons, which is driving Ned Colletti’s interest. Further, he gets on base at a high clip, leading the NL in walks last season.

In addition to Loney, the Brewers would be getting a former solid closer in Broxton in the proposed deal.

Broxton saved 22/29 of his chances in 2010, with an ERA slightly over four. In 2009, however, Broxton saved 36 games for Milwaukee, striking out 114 batters in 76 innings and a WHIP of 0.96.

Fielder is arbitration-eligible for the final time, and he will become a free agent after the 2011 season. He is likely to get as much as $15 to $18 million in arbitration, and it may take a Ryan Howard-like deal to get him to avoid free agency. 

As for the effect this trade would have on the Dodgers closer situation, there is speculation that LA is close to re-signing Vicente Padilla and may use him as the replacement for Broxton if Broxton is moved.

For a team like the Dodgers, it just might make sense to make this deal even if they do not get a window to discuss a contract extension, since they wouldn’t be giving up any prospects in the deal. For the Brewers, it doesn’t make sense to me to trade your big gun without getting any blue-chip prospects in return.

Unless you feel you are ready to contend immediately, why trade Fielder for established veteran ballplayers? That is not the path that teams looking to do this sort of thing usually take.

Then again, the Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard contracts may have scared the Brewers into realizing that they cannot afford to keep their star first baseman long-term.

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According to “multiple sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity”, ESPNLosAngeles.com’s Tony Jackson wrote on Monday afternoon that the Milwaukee Brewers are “actively involved in discussions” with the Los Angeles Dodgers on a trade that would send rotund first baseman Prince Fielder to the Dodgers for James Loney and Jonathan Broxton.

The Brewers would be wise to try and move Fielder, since they likely will not be able to afford him long-term. Fielder’s body type may not hold up long enough for him to be a safe gamble on an extended contract anyway.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are looking for offense and an upgrade at first base. Loney is coming off a season that could best be described as “meh”, with a lack of power despite solid defense.

The 26-year-old fielder has averaged 40 homers over the past four seasons, which is driving Ned Colletti’s interest. Further, he gets on base at a high clip, leading the NL in walks last season.

In addition to Loney, the Brewers would be getting a former solid closer in Broxton in the proposed deal.

Broxton saved 22/29 of his chances in 2010, with an ERA slightly over four. In 2009, however, Broxton saved 36 games for Milwaukee, striking out 114 batters in 76 innings and a WHIP of 0.96.

Fielder is arbitration-eligible for the final time, and he will become a free agent after the 2011 season. He is likely to get as much as $15 to $18 million in arbitration, and it may take a Ryan Howard-like deal to get him to avoid free agency. 

As for the effect this trade would have on the Dodgers closer situation, there is speculation that LA is close to re-signing Vicente Padilla and may use him as the replacement for Broxton if Broxton is moved.

For a team like the Dodgers, it just might make sense to make this deal even if they do not get a window to discuss a contract extension, since they wouldn’t be giving up any prospects in the deal. For the Brewers, it doesn’t make sense to me to trade your big gun without getting any blue-chip prospects in return.

Unless you feel you are ready to contend immediately, why trade Fielder for established veteran ballplayers? That is not the path that teams looking to do this sort of thing usually take.

Then again, the Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard contracts may have scared the Brewers into realizing that they cannot afford to keep their star first baseman long-term.

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First off, I’d like to thank everyone who had the chance to read into our first player introduction of the offseason.  Informing the fans is our number one priority here at Bleacher Report.

Now, let’s take a look at the Milwaukee Brewers’ newly added defensive phenom, shortstop Alcides Escobar.

Although you may already believe to know enough about him to get by, let me be the first to tell you that you are indeed, mistaken.

Born on December 16, 1986, Escobar was declared early on as a future baseball star.  Growing up in the tiny town of La Sabana, Venezuela, helped in his early-life baseball pursuits.

Kniown for his extreme base-running speed and skills, Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers were severely interested from the very beginnings of his young career.

The 6’1”, 180-pound frame is clearly makes Escobar one of the most peculiar shortstops in the major leagues.  Along with not attending any college, Escobar is certainly one of the more un-prototypical players in the league.

After being signed by Milwaukee as an international free agent in 2003, Escobar split time between Single-A and Double-A.  Contributing his efforts in 63 games for Single-A Brevard County, as well as 62 games with Double-A Huntsville was Escobar’s official “commencement” time period.  Hitting for a combined .306 BA, with 1 HR and 53 RBI was one of the many reasons why his talents were initially noticed by Brewers’ personnel.

On September 1, 2008, Escobar was called up to the majors for the first time of his young, promising career as a defensive replacement for then starter J.J. Hardy.  In that same game, the growing Escobar recorded his first career hit.

In 2009, Escobar in the MLB future’s All-Star Game, as the starting shortstop for the World Team.  Let it be known he went 2-for-4, including the go-ahead run for the World Team All-Stars.

Following his impressive performance in the Future’s All-Star Game, Escobar was called up from AAA Nashville to replace J.J. Hardy, who would later be traded to the Minnesota Twins later that season.

In 2010, Escobar was able to total up 41 RBI, 4 HR to go with a .235 batting average.  However, the enphasis on Escobar is not primarily his offense, but his defense.

Formerly one of the most touted young defensive shortstops in the minor leagues, Escobar was able to maintain a .964 FPCT (fielding percentage).  

Seemingly making jaw-dropping plays left and right in only his 1st season as a regular starter, Escobar is already making a name for himself within clubhouses around the major leagues.

As for his role within the Brewers in 2011, Escobar is undoubtedly the starting shortstop until further notice.

Rest assured, Escobar’s importance to Milwaukee’s NL Central title hopes is absolutely vital.  He is certainly a diamond in the rough.

Make sure to get all your Brewers’ breaking news, articles, and updates at Brewers Daily

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Heading into 2010, selecting Prince Fielder in the first round of fantasy drafts was an easy decision. 

He was coming off a year in which he had hit .299 with 46 HR, 141 RBI and 103 R. It was the second time in his career that he had hit at least 45 HR, as well as the second time he had gone 100/100. 

Unfortunately for owners who put their faith in him, Fielder started slowly (which is not an oddity for him) and never got going.

Now owners face a new set of questions: How do we value him heading into 2011? Is he a viable first round selection? 

Let’s take a look.

2010 Campaign: Fielder regressed across the board, hitting .261 with 32 HR, 83 RBI and 94 R. 

Previously a fixture in the cleanup role for the Brewers, he just never got going and the team ultimately experimented with flipping Fielder and Ryan Braun in an effort to get him going.  nfortunately, it didn’t work (at least not completely). 

While Fielder did alright in the three hole (.275, 10 HR, 19 RBI) in 142 AB, we have already discussed how much Braun struggled hitting fourth (click here to read the article on Braun). 

On the season, Fielder had four months with just five home runs or less. In comparison, in 2009 after hitting three home runs in April, he hit at least eight home runs in four of the next five months.

What happened: The biggest problem was Fielder’s ability to perform with runners in scoring position (RISP). In 2009, he hit .296 with 13 HR and 93 RBI with RISP; in 2010, he hit just .233 with 2 HR and 47 RBI with RISP. 

If you are looking for the one big explanation for his regression, this is it.

While it may not help explain his fall in power, it certainly helps explain the collapse in RBI. While I don’t think anyone anticipated him repeating his 141 RBI from ‘09, a 58 RBI regression seems extremely dramatic.

Of course, it’s not the only reason for his falloff. His fly ball rate was its lowest since 2006 at 39.7%. What may be even more noteworthy is his HR/FB, which has gone back and forth the past four seasons. 

Just look at the trend, as well as the number of home runs it yielded:

• 2007 – 23.9% (50 HR)
• 2008 – 18.2% (34 HR)
• 2009 – 23.1% (46 HR)
• 2010 – 18.3% (32 HR)

This not only helps explain his power regression, but his fall in average as well. While he did post a lower BABIP (.315 in ‘09 to .291 in ‘10), if he had been able to maintain his power, his average would have been significantly better. 

Just think about it: Home runs are hits not put in play, meaning luck is irrelevant. 

At the end of the day, Fielder posted a .471 SLG, his worst mark in a full season at the major league level. With his power, would anyone have predicted that?

Fielder also struggled against left handed pitchers, hitting .226 with 5 HR and 19 RBI. In comparison, he had at least 10 HR against southpaws each year since 2006.

What to expect in 2011: It’s hard to imagine Fielder once again struggling as badly as he did with RISP, as well as against left handed pitchers. 

The fact that he’s traded these types of “bad” years with tremendous seasons would give you hope. Couple that (which is more superstitious then anything) with the numbers and it should be another solid campaign.

There will be questions about him getting traded throughout the season (if he’s not traded beforehand), and it is possible that it causes a distraction. At the same time, Fielder is going to be playing for a contract and he is going to want to prove that the 40+ HR power is still in his bat.

Is he going to match the monster years he had in 2007 and 2009? Probably not, but the potential is there for him to do so. The problem is, without that being likely, it is almost impossible to select him in the first round this year. 

When you pick someone in the first round you want to at least feel confident that they will perform among the Top 12 players in the league.

Can you honestly say that about Fielder? Can you say it is an absolute certainty?

Throw in the depth among first baseman and it makes it impossible to select him at the end of the first round. 

The truth is, from picks 13-18, you could possibly have first base option like Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard and Adrian Gonzalez still on the board (as well as Fielder). 

Why not take a player at a shallower position in the middle-to-late first round, than look to bank one of these first basemen, with potential first round talent, in the second round? 

It’s not that Fielder doesn’t have the ability to perform like a first rounder, it just doesn’t make sense to pick him as one.

What are your thoughts? Do you see Fielder as a first round pick in 2011? Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our previous first round pick analysis articles:

• Ryan Braun
• Ryan Howard

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has reported via Twitter that the Milwaukee Brewers are in the process of completing a trade for RHP Shaun Marcum, 28, of the Toronto Blue Jays. It appears to be a done deal with only the formalities and paperwork remaining.

A Canadian source has confirmed to Haudricourt that Milwaukee Brewers’ top prospect and 2008 First Round pick 2B Brett Lawrie will be going to the Blue Jays in the deal. Originally it was believed the Jays would be getting pitching prospects in return.

Obtaining Lawrie is a no-brainer for Toronto, as Lawrie is Canadian native born in Langley, British Columbia. He also played for the 2008 Canadian Junior National Team, as well as their 2008 Olympic squad. He has steadily moved up the ladder in the Brewers’ minor league system.

Marcum has proven to be an effective starting pitcher for the Jays and is a solid addition to the middle of the rotation. However, he is not a top of the rotation difference-maker. He does do something many of the Brewers’ starters have struggled with in recent memory.

He gets hitters out.

I am a bit stunned to see Lawrie involved in a trade for Marcum. I would think that, for the organization’s top prospect, Doug Melvin could have a aimed a bit higher. I like Marcum, but he’s a number three starter in my opinion. I just hope Melvin didn’t give up any other high level prospects in the deal.

This probably means a contract extension for 2B Rickie Weeks isn’t far off.

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