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With unpredictability comes great opportunity for franchises to find hidden gems late in the 2016 MLB draft.

Some of the 77 players selected on Thursday night won’t stick in the majors. Others will never make it. Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Matt Harvey and Chris Sale make 2010’s opening round one of the most star-studded classes in recent memory, but that group also includes Barrett Loux, Karsten Whitson and Michael Choice.

Meanwhile, the New York Mets found Jacob deGrom hiding in the ninth round. The following year, the Boston Red Sox stole Mookie Betts in the fifth. Plenty of talent remains available after the first day of drafting, which covered two of 40 total rounds.

Of course, identifying those undervalued players proves far tougher without the benefit of hindsight. Thirty teams employing bright and devoted baseball minds won’t all repeatedly pass on a prospect without good reason. Yet with so much volatility in MLB’s first-year selection process, a handful of undervalued studs will produce far beyond their draft slot’s typical expectations.

Still available heading into Friday, these players have the potential to make fools out of the league. 

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The MLB Draft is officially underway, and there was some top talent taken at the top.

The Philadelphia Phillies may have taken the next transcending outfielder in baseball, while the Oakland Athletics and Boston Red Sox both drafted some steals.

Here are some grades and the best and worst from Thursday. 

Best Draft Picks

Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Labeling any high school prospect the next best anything is a stretch. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have set the bar for top overall picks, especially in the outfield.

Enter Mickey Moniak, per the Phillies:

The La Costa Canyon outfielder is the kind of player the Phillies need. He’s someone who can do it all. He has a great arm, can hit for contact with potential for power while possessing stellar speed to run the bases.

Outfielders going No. 1 are a rarity, especially in this decade, according to ESPN Stats & Info:

Right now, he won’t have the power to wow the Phillies. That will come with time. One evaluator told Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly other than that component, there’s no downside to taking Moniak No. 1 overall.

“The bat is good,” the evaluator told Salisbury. “He’s going to hit and hit for average. He’s a good centerfielder. He can run. The question is how many home runs will he hit? If he ends up getting stronger, he could be a corner bat that’s unbelievable. There’s no negative here. It’s a good pick.”

Moniak just turned 18 years old. There’s plenty of room to grow and become that complete player who can be a transcending figure for the Phillies.

Riley Pint, RHP, Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies could use some pitching. Not since the days of Ubaldo Jimenez have the Rockies had a pitcher with so much potential. 

Riley Pint might be just a flamethrower now, but in a few years, MLB could be seeing its next Stephen Strasburg. Just don’t tell Pint that.

“I feel like I’m my own pitcher,” Pint told MLB Network (per Nick Groke of the Denver Post). “I just want to develop more over the next few years.”

Pint is capable of hitting 102 miles per hour on the gun. While he needs time to develop his command on off-speed pitches, that heat can’t be ignored. Even if Pint develops into a closer role in his early days, that’s fine. He’ll have the David Price treatment.

The highest-drafted player out of the state of Kansas, and LSU commit, is the third high school pitcher the Rockies have ever taken in the top 10, per Groke.

He’s got great size at 6’4″ and is only 18 years old. The Rockies need a future star in their rotation, and Pint could be that guy after a healthy stint in the minors.

Worst Draft Picks

Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves

This isn’t necessarily a terrible pick, but it’s a stretch. 

When Ian Anderson is healthy, he has one of the liveliest arms of any prospect in this class. But he suffered an oblique injury this year and saw his stock drop. But the Atlanta Braves don’t see it that way.

The Braves made Anderson the first pitcher taken off the board with the No. 3 pick. His fastball isn’t at the clip of a Riley Pint or A.J. Puk. And while his off-speed pitches are his most dangerous weapons, his health and arm strength are a concern.

Puk’s off-speed pitches can range from 88-90 miles per hour. He can give more velocity and better control than Anderson can. 

At least with Anderson, though, the Braves are saving a considerable amount of money, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports:

The Braves are in desperate need of immediate impact on the mound. There’s a lot of pressure now with Anderson being the top pitcher taken. He’ll need to perform well in the next few years to validate him being selected this high.

TJ Zeuch, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are so talented across the board, that this draft was more of a ho-hum set of affairs.

TJ Zeuch is a tall right-handed pitcher out of Pittsburgh with the ability to be a Chris Young-type of pitcher.

Maybe that’s what the Blue Jays need, especially with how Young and the Kansas City Royals bullpen performed in last year’s American League Championship Series.

But Zeuch seems like a filler pick for Toronto. Zeuch has a strong command of his release, but scouts are concerned with off-speed pitching, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (via Baseball America):

Zeuch could be an effective ground-ball pitcher, but it feels like Toronto could’ve addressed other needs like outfielder (especially if Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion leave). Toronto needed pitching, but Zeuch may not be the guy to have in this spot.

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The MLB draft is always a combination of homework, guesswork and gut feeling.

This year, with ample amateur talent available in the high school and college ranks but no consensus No. 1 overall pick, that’s especially true.

In that sense, it’s premature to definitively declare anyone a winner or loser after Day 1.

Still, we can survey the landscape after the initial two rounds and 77 picks and identify some teams and players who made out better or worse than expected.

There’s homework here, but also plenty of guesswork and gut feeling.

Proceed when ready—you’re on the clock.

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By the time 10 p.m. ET rolled around, three of the top five steals on Day 1 of the 2016 MLB draft—players taken lower than expected—were position players. A half-hour later, only one remained.

So while the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees deserve credit for stealing outfielders Kyle Lewis (No. 11) and Blake Rutherford (No. 18), respectively, other picks were bigger steals—defined by key factors such as talent upside vs. draft position, and signability.

Those thefts include a trio of prospects—two pitchers and the lone position player to crack our top five—who, at one point over the past few months, were in the discussion to be the draft’s top overall selection.

It’s going to take a few years before we know who the real steals of the draft are, as there’s a chance that at least one high school prospect who made the cut won’t sign and could head to college.

But with what we know—or at least what we think we know—about these prospects and how they project at the game’s highest level, here are the biggest Day 1 steals of the 2016 MLB draft.

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The Toronto Blue Jays selected second baseman Bo Bichette, the son of four-time All-Star outfielder Dante Bichette, in the second round of Thursday night’s MLB draft at No. 66 overall. 

The 18-year-old is known for packing serious power and finished his senior year at Lakewood High School with a .569 batting average and 13 home runs, according to the Tampa Bay Times‘ Rodney Page. 

Like his father, who smashed 274 home runs over the course of a 14-year MLB career, Bichette uses tremendous power to stand out. However, he will need to refine his swing as his career continues if he wants to produce consistently at the plate.

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Player: Bo Bichette

Position: 2B/SS

DOB: March 5, 1998 (18 years old)

Height/Weight: 6’1″, 200 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

School: Lakewood High School (FL)

College Commitment: Arizona State

Background

The son of 14-year MLB veteran Dante Bichette and brother of 2011 first-round pick Dante Bichette Jr., infielder Bo Bichette has some of the best raw power of any high school bat in the 2016 class.

He’s been on the prospect radar since his sophomore season at Lakewood High School in Florida and has only solidified his stock with a huge senior season.

In 25 games, Bichette hit .569/.698/1.400 with seven doubles, 13 home runs, 40 RBI and 46 runs scored in 96 plate appearances.

The young slugger credits the summer of 2013, when his father was the Colorado Rockies‘ hitting coach, as the turning point in his career, as he was able to learn from some quality MLB hitters as well as his dad.

“I really feel that was the summer where I went from good to really good, learning from [Troy] Tulowitzki and the best players they had,” Bichette told Maggie Hendricks of USA Today.

Making consistent contact will be the biggest battle for Bichette once he begins his career at the next level. He has a bit of a hitch in his swing, but if he can adjust to the pro game, he’ll have a chance to make an impact.

If nothing else, his bat-flip game is MLB-ready.

Pick Analysis

Baseball America had the following to say about Bichette while ranking him as the No. 46 prospect in its pre-draft rankings:

The right-handed hitter has exceptionally fast hands, allowing him to whip the bat through the zone and drive the ball. His swing includes a deep load and an exaggerated back elbow swoop, but his bat works through the zone well and he controlled at-bats against elite competition on the showcase circuit.

Bichette has a steady glove and a strong arm. He plays shortstop now and could go out as one, but will eventually move to second base or, more likely owing to his 6-foot, 200-pound frame, third base.

Hitting coaches may try to simplify his swing once he starts his pro career, but his raw power is something you can’t teach, and his in-game power is already at a level that is rare for a high school middle-infield prospect.

He’ll never be a Gold Glove winner, regardless of where he eventually lands defensively, but his bat will carry him to the big leagues.

MLB Player Comparison: Jedd Gyorko

Second basemen with plus power from the right side of the plate are few and far between, but Jedd Gyorko is one player who looks like a reasonable comp for Bichette.

Gyorko burst onto the scene with 26 doubles and 23 home runs as a rookie in 2013, but he’s struggled at times to make enough contact to tap into that pop, which is the biggest concern surrounding Bichette.

The 27-year-old Gyorko also has a similar build to Bichette at 5’11” and 215 pounds, and both players possess below-average speed and athleticism.

Despite his athletic limitations, Gyorko is a capable defender at multiple defensive positions, and Bichette could find himself in a similar role once he reaches the majors, since he doesn’t profile as a shortstop long-term.

Projection: Everyday second baseman or left fielder with 20-homer power

Major League ETA: 2021

Chances of Signing: 90 percent

Bichette has as much power potential as any high school bat in this year’s class, and that should land a bonus high enough to lure him away from his commitment to Arizona State.

All high school stats courtesy of MaxPreps, unless otherwise noted.

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Player: Delvin Perez

Position: SS

DOB: November 24, 1998 (17 years old)

Height/Weight: 6’3″, 165 lbs

Bats/Throws: R/R

School: International Baseball Academy (Puerto Rico)

College Commitment: None

Background

Last June, a total of seven shortstops were selected in the first round of the draft.

Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt), Alex Bregman (LSU) and Brendan Rodgers (Lake Mary HS) were the first three players off the board, followed by Kevin Newman (Arizona, No. 19 overall), Richie Martin (Florida, No. 20 overall), Kyle Holder (San Diego, No. 30 overall) and Ryan Mountcastle (Paul J. Hagerty HS, No. 36 overall).

This year, Delvin Perez appeared to be the only lock at the position to go in the first round.

In fact, Wisconsin high schooler Gavin Lux and Florida Atlantic standout C.J. Chatham looked like the only other threats to go inside the first 50 picks.

However, that all changed when a report surfaced Tuesday, per John Manuel and J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, that Perez had tested positive for “an undisclosed performance enhancer” in his predraft drug test.

Jon Heyman, writing for Today’s Knuckleball and citing sources, was the first to report the failed test.

The failed test doesn’t affect his ability to be selected in the draft but raises some obvious red flags for any team considering him with an early selection.

He’s still an elite talent, though, and if this is in fact just an isolated incident and he develops into the player some expect him to become, he could wind up being an absolute steal.

Pick Analysis

When it comes to evaluating prep shortstops, the biggest question is always whether they have the defensive skill set to remain at the position long-term.

That doesn’t appear to be a concern with Perez.

“His defense is obviously there,” one scout told Alyson Footer of MLB.com. “It’ll take time to see how much he hits. It’s the hardest thing to project, because it’s the hardest thing to do. But he’s where he needs to be with his speed and defense.”

Baseball America offered up a more complete scouting report in its predraft report, ranking Perez as the No. 8 prospect in the class:

There are few questions about Perez’s ability to stay at shortstop; he shows first-step quickness, range to both sides, a plus or better arm, athleticism and smooth infield actions. He has excellent instincts and can make highlight reel plays look easy, though his quick feet and powerful arm can be difficult for him to control at times.

Perez is not as advanced offensively. He is a plus runner with excellent bat speed and can hit blistering line drives, but his pitch recognition and plate discipline will need to improve to allow him to make consistent contact. As a result, he is one of the biggest risk-reward players in the class.

This came before the failed test, so his standing as a risk-reward pick has only been magnified. Still, it’s clear that the 17-year-old Perez has the tools scouts look for in an early shortstop selection.

Pro Comparison: Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor has developed into a budding superstar for the Cleveland Indians, but he was not always a sure thing to make the sort of impact he has at the plate.

The No. 8 pick in the 2011 draft, Lindor was drafted on the strength of his plus-plus defensive tools and his overall athleticism. There was plenty of offensive potential to project on, but that part of his game was still raw, and his eventual ceiling was somewhat unclear.

After steadily improving at the plate as he worked his way through the minors, Lindor burst on the scene last year with a .313/.353/.482 line and 38 extra-base hits in 438 plate appearances to finish second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and post a 4.6 WAR, per Baseball-Reference.com.

He’s backed up that breakout performance with another strong showing at the plate here in 2016, and in the process has quickly emerged as one of the top shortstops in the league.

Lindor is probably a best-case scenario for what Perez can develop into, but the similarities between where the two players were at in their respective development on draft day are tough to ignore.

Projection: Starting shortstop, Gold Glove-caliber defender

Major League ETA: late 2021

Chances of Signing: 99 percent

Considering he doesn’t have a college commitment, it seems Perez is set to begin his pro career regardless of his draft position.

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There was no consensus No. 1 pick entering the 2016 MLB draft, but the Philadelphia Phillies‘ extensive evaluation process led the team to select La Costa Canyon High School outfielder Mickey Moniak with the first selection Thursday evening.  

According to ESPN Stats & Info, Moniak became the first outfielder selected No. 1 overall since the Washington Nationals snagged Bryce Harper in 2010. Moniak is also the first left-handed-hitting high school outfielder to be selected with the draft’s top pick since Josh Hamilton in 1999. 

The Phillies’ official Twitter account confirmed Moniak’s arrival:

Philadelphia could have opted to add a top-tier pitching prospect such as A.J. Puk or Jason Groome—who ended up with the Oakland A’s and Boston Red Sox, respectively—but Moniak offers the team a potential future cornerstone in the outfield. 

“Collectively, we believe Mickey was the best player available in the draft,” Phillies scouting director Johnny Almaraz said, per Philly Voice’s Ryan Lawrence. “He’s a true center fielder with incredible offensive ability and the potential to be a perennial All-Star.”

According to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, the 18-year-old batted .476 with seven home runs, 12 triples, 46 RBI and a .921 slugging percentage during his senior year. 

“The bat is good,” an evaluator said, per CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury. “He’s going to hit and hit for average. He’s a good center fielder. He can run. The question is how many home runs will he hit? If he ends up getting stronger, he could be a corner bat that’s unbelievable. There’s no negative here. It’s a good pick.”

Adding Moniak to the mix gives the Phillies a slew of talented outfielders who should be able to carry the franchise forward as the rebuild accelerates.

Nick Williams, who’s now playing for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, grades out as the team’s third-best prospect, per MLB.com, while 2015 first-round pick Cornelius Randolph ranks No. 5 on the team. 

With an arsenal of assets who are growing and appreciating at a rapid rate, the Phillies have positioned themselves as potential National League contenders by the time the decade comes to a close. 

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Player: Blake Rutherford

Position: OF

DOB: May 2, 1997 (19 years old)

Height/Weight: 6’2″, 190 lbs

Bats/Throws: L/R

School: Chaminade College Prep (Calif.)

College Commitment: UCLA

Background

Similar to the way a college player can significantly boost his stock with a strong showing in the Cape Cod League, a prep prospect can get a serious shot in the arm from a standout performance with the USA Baseball 18U team.

Long on the MLB draft radar, outfielder Blake Rutherford solidified his standing as an elite prospect last summer when Baseball America identified him as the biggest bat on that star-studded 18U team.

However, his stock has slipped a bit this spring, and he’s fallen behind fellow California outfielder Mickey Moniak, who is now the top prep hitter in the eyes of most evaluators.

That being said, Rutherford is still a top-tier prospect with as high a ceiling as any position player.

He has the potential for five plus tools as his development continues, and he went so far as to identify himself as a five-tool player while breaking down his game for Chuck Wasserstrom of MLB Trade Rumors:

I would describe my game as someone who can do all things on a baseball field. I truly believe I’m a five-tool player who has a very overall strong game. I feel like the main thing people have always talked about is my hitting, but I really feel like my fielding, my running and my throwing have all taken a huge step this year. I’m also someone who’s super competitive, and I’m not going to stop until I get what I want – which is winning. I’m just someone who’s passionate and loves to play the game, but stays calm and cool during all situations.

Even after an up-and-down spring, the superstar potential is still obvious, and he’s more than worthy of being selected in the top half of the first round.

Pick Analysis

So what exactly is it that scouts liked so much about Rutherford heading into the spring, and what has caused his stock to slip a bit?

Here’s what Baseball America had to say in its predraft scouting report while ranking him as the No. 9 overall prospect:

Rutherford has size, strength, athleticism and power potential for scouts to dream on, and would likely be the consensus top prep bat in the class if he had a more consistent spring or if he were a year younger.

Rutherford turned 19 as the calendar turned to May, offering less projection than other prep outfielders, with a physically mature 6-foot-2, 195-pound frame. Scouts have to project on Rutherford’s home run power; he’s produced this spring after being the biggest bat last summer for USA Baseball’s 18U team.

However, he hasn’t taken the next step with his power, at times trying too hard to pull and yank balls for power. When he stays with his approach, he’s as impressive as any prep hitter in the class, with power to all fields, a line-drive swing path that covers the plate and the athleticism for center field.

If he can refine his approach at the plate and maximize his raw power, the sky is the limit for the Chaminade Prep star, who could ultimately develop into one of the game’s elite all-around center fielders.

Pro Comparison: Brady Anderson

Rutherford’s upright stance when he loads up and swing path actually remind me a bit of Joe Mauer, but the similarities between those two players begin and end there.

Looking at the current landscape of left-handed-hitting center fielders, there’s no one who matches up with Rutherford as a well-built power threat who can also hit, run and field at a high level.

Instead, we’ll go back a few years to Baltimore Orioles center fielder Brady Anderson.

A three-time All-Star, Anderson is best remembered for his out-of-nowhere 50-homer season in 1996, but that one anomaly aside, he was a steady producer in a number of areas.

Once he hit his stride as the Orioles’ everyday center fielder, he was a consistent threat for 15-plus home runs, 20-plus stolen bases and strong defense in center field.

Rutherford possesses a better hit tool, as Anderson was a career .256 hitter who never batted over .300 in any one season.

Beyond that, it’s a fair comparison across the board as both players are strong, athletic center fielders capable of providing a good mix of power and speed offensively.

Projection: Starting center fielder, potential middle-of-the-order bat

Major League ETA: 2021

Chances of Signing: 95 percent

Rutherford is committed to UCLA, but given how much has been made about his age and lack of projectability, he’s no doubt anxious to get his pro career started.

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Player: Jason Groome

Position: LHP

DOB: Aug. 23, 1998 (Age: 17)

Height/Weight: 6’6″, 220 lbs

Bats/Throws: L/L

School: Barnegat High School (New Jersey)

College Commitment: Vanderbilt

Background

When Baseball America released its first top-100 draft prospects list on March 10, Jason Groome was perched atop those rankings in the No. 1 spot.

However, eligibility issues put a damper on his senior season as he attempted to transfer back to Barnegat High School following a junior season at IMG Academy in Florida.

Joe Zedalis and Matthew Stanmyre of NJ.com provided the details on April 14:

Barnegat High School senior left-handed pitcher Jason Groome, the No. 1 overall prospect for June’s Major League Baseball draft, has been ruled ineligible by the state’s governing body for high school athletics for violating the state’s transfer rule, NJ Advance Media has learned. 

Barnegat must forfeit victories in which Groome played this season and his statistics over the past two weeks will be erased, including the 19 strikeouts he racked up during a no-hitter he threw against Central Regional Monday.

Groome spent last season at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., before transferring back to Barnegat this year to finish his high school career playing with childhood friends. According to New Jersey State Interscholastic Athletic Association bylaws, Groome’s move from the boarding school back to Barnegat did not constitute a bona fide change of address and Groome had to sit out 30 days or half of the season’s games before becoming eligible.

He continued to impress scouts upon returning to the mound, but his standing as the consensus No. 1 prospect was gone, and some scouts began to question his elite standing.

“There’s a feeling that Groome should just be blowing people away, not giving up hits and walks to average high school hitters,” one scout told Zedalis in another article.

“He’s a legitimate top-three pick as a lefty who throws hard, but he’s a high schooler, which makes him a bit more of a gamble,” said another scout, per the article.

Prior to Groome, the highest-drafted players in New Jersey high school history were Jeff Kunkel (1983) and Willie Banks (1987), both of whom went No. 3 overall in their respective drafts.

Pick Analysis

While his senior season was somewhat polarizing, Groome still has the makings of an elite talent. Left-handers with big, projectable frames and polished power stuff are few and far between.

Here’s what MLB.com’s Prospect Watch had to say about Groome:

Groome has everything to be a top-of-the-rotation left-handed starting pitcher, from his 6-foot-6 frame to the potential to have three above-average to plus offerings. The fastball is already there, up to 96 mph and sitting 92-93 mph over the summer, and in the 90-94 mph range in the early stages of the spring.

Groome features a nasty curve as well, with tight rotation and bite. He doesn’t throw his changeup often, but he’s shown some feel for it, with some sink. Groome is generally around the plate and has clean mechanics, with a pretty good overall feel for pitching.

That certainly sounds like a pitcher capable of leading a staff if all goes according to plan, and that’s exactly what his new team is hoping he’ll develop into.

MLB Player Comparison: Clayton Kershaw at the same age

Comparing anyone to present-day Kershaw is simply unfair, so the second part there is important.

Groome has tremendous upside and all the physical tools to develop into a front-line starter, and Kershaw was a similar prospect when he was taken No. 7 overall in the 2006 draft out of Highland Park High School in Texas.

While Kershaw relies more on his slider these days as his main secondary offering, he was a fastball/curveball guy when he began his pro career just like Groome is now.

Kershaw had an advanced feel for pitching and smooth mechanics as a prep prospect, just like Groome, and both possess the ideal projectable size with Kershaw standing 6’4″ and a sturdy 225 pounds these days.

It seems every projectable left-hander with a good curveball draws comparisons to Kershaw, but Groome actually has the complete package to come close to delivering on that high praise.

Projection: No. 2 starter with ace upside

Major League ETA: 2021

Chances of Signing: 95 percent

It’s always tricky with Vanderbilt commits, but Groome went high enough and is headed for a big enough bonus that he’ll almost certainly be starting his pro career.

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