Tag: MLB Free Agency

Projecting 1 Impact Free-Agent Move Every MLB Team Will Make This Winter

From David Price to Zack Greinke, the MLB free-agent market is flooded with starting pitchers.

After looking back at the season that was and surveying the upcoming free-agent class, here are projections for where all those impact players will end up signing.

From aces like Price and Greinke to lower-tier guys like Scott Kazmir and Marco Estrada, the list that follows is dominated by starting pitchers. However, there’s still room for a slew of power bullpen arms and big-time bats. One masher who makes the list is Yoenis Cespedes, who could end up inking a deal with a dark-horse club.

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Rapid-Fire Predictions for the Yankees Offseason

The New York Yankees fell short of a World Series title in 2015, but they have some exciting young pieces in place.

What needs must they address this offseason? Will they spend big or keep their wallet holstered? What big-name outfielder should they pursue now that Carlos Beltran’s best days are behind him?

Watch Stephen Nelson and Bleacher Report MLB Analyst Scott Miller discuss the Yankees in the video above.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Free Agency 2015-16: Looking at Every Team’s Offseason Shopping List

The 2015 World Series is officially in the books, as the Kansas City Royals capped off an impressive postseason run with another come-from-behind victory in Game 5 on Sunday night to claim their first title in 30 years.

There will be time to reflect on the 2015 season in the months ahead, but there is no rest for MLB teams in their pursuit of a title, and with the World Series wrapping up, the offseason is officially underway.

All 30 teams have a different to-do list heading into the winter, as each team looks to shore up its roster for a run of its own in 2016.

What follows is a quick rundown of each team’s offseason shopping list as things stand here on the first day of the offseason. Things will obviously change as the weeks and months pass, but for now, this serves as a primer for what to expect from each team.

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MLB Free Agents 2015-16: Finding the Best Values at Each Position

There is no shortage of star power in this year’s MLB free-agent class.

David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto front an impressive class of starting pitchers, while Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Justin Upton, Ian Desmond and Alex Gordon make up the cream of the position player crop.

However, the more intriguing side of free agency is often the under-the-radar bargain signings. Those signings don’t dominate the headlines, but they can wind up being what pushes a team over the top.

A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Johnson, Nori Aoki, Jeff Francoeur, Chris Young, Mark Lowe and Joe Blanton were among the notable unexpected contributors who signed for peanuts last offseason, and teams will look for similar deals in this year’s free-agent class.

With that in mind, what follows is a look at the one guy from each position who could wind up being the best value this offseason, as well as a look back at the top bargain from a year ago.

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2016 MLB Free Agents: Rumors and Predictions for Underrated Stars

The Major League Baseball offseason can be as dramatic as the postseason—at least in most years, though this October is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory—providing thrills and heartache for fans and teams in their quests to build championship rosters.

This winter, all eyes will be on marquee names like Toronto Blue Jays ace David Price and New York Mets slugger Yoenis Cespedes, but only a select group of teams will be able to get in on the bidding for those players. The more interesting dynamic at play involves what will happen in the second- and third-tier markets.

Those players aren’t going to draw the same attention but will serve valuable functions for teams that have a strong nucleus in place and need to make a tweak here or there to get over the hump. 

For instance, no one would have expected Kendrys Morales to hit 20-plus home runs with over 100 RBI in the middle of the Kansas City Royals lineup when the team signed him last year, yet there he is, doing just that. 

Such under-the-radar deals can make all the difference when the postseason rolls around, so here are some of the latest rumblings about unheralded free agents and where they could end up before 2016’s spring training begins.

 

John Lackey to Switch Sides in Rivalry?

The St. Louis Cardinals’ season ended in Game 4 of the National League Division Series against the Chicago Cubs with John Lackey on the mound as the starting pitcher.

Perhaps the script for Lackey will reverse next season. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported that the Cubs could pursue the veteran right-hander this winter.

“It is not out of the realm of possibility that Lackey could wind up with the Cubs next season as a free agent, according to one major league source,” Cafardo noted. “It was Theo Epstein who signed him as a free agent in Boston. Lackey is also a close friend of Jon Lester, who will push Epstein in that direction.”

Lackey played this season under one of the most team-friendly salaries in history. When he originally signed with the Boston Red Sox in 2010, there was a provision in the deal that meant his salary for the final season (2015) would be the major league minimum, worth roughly $500,000. 

The 36-year-old responded by having his best season since he was a Cy Young contender with the Los Angeles Angels, posting a career-low 2.77 ERA and throwing over 200 innings for the first time since 2010. His 3.6 wins above replacement were his most since 2007, according to FanGraphs

Adding a veteran starter of Lackey’s ability behind the dynamic one-two punch of Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester would make the already formidable Cubs more lethal in 2016, though Lackey is not likely to replicate his numbers from this season, as his 3.57 fielding-independent ERA suggests some regression will come.

Yet even factoring in regression, Lackey is a more reliable option than Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel in the No. 3 spot.

Plus, the Cubs wouldn’t have to break the bank to sign Lackey, since he’s at a point where a three-year deal might be too much for some teams. That works to Chicago’s benefit, because by the time Lackey’s contract ends, young stars like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber will be on the verge of earning big raises through arbitration.

It will be shocking if Lackey doesn’t have a robust market this winter, but the Cubs do have a compelling presentation to make.

Prediction: Lackey signs with Cubs.

 

Freese High on Angels’ Wish List

David Freese will be one of the most interesting free-agent test cases of the upcoming offseason. The former All-Star has been an above-average hitter in two seasons with the Angels but also missed 69 games during that span.

Injuries have been a problem for Freese, who has played more than 140 games only once since 2010, though that isn’t deterring the Angels from keeping a close eye on the 32-year-old, according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com.

“When Freese returned, their lineup deepened and their record improved,” Gonzalez noted. “It was no coincidence, which is why the Angels are expected to strongly consider bringing Freese back this offseasoneven though they have two promising young players waiting, and even though they’ll have other holes to fill in their lineup.”

Freese also told Gonzalez that his hope is to remain with the Angels, while admitting both sides will have to explore the situation in greater detail over the winter.

“I think they understand that [I want to return],” Freese said. “With that said, a lot of things have to happen on both sides. It’s a new experience for me. We’ll see what happens when the World Series is over and go from there.”

The Angels, like Freese, will be a fascinating study in the offseason. They have an owner in Arte Moreno who will spend money, at times foolishly, in hopes of winning a championship. New general manager Billy Eppler has to establish his own identity while working within the system, especially since Moreno and manager Mike Scioscia are close.

Being able to spend money in smart ways—Albert Pujols still has power, but a 35-year-old first baseman with a .307 on-base percentage who is still owed $165 million through 2021 doesn’t look good—will determine how successful the Angels are moving forward.

Freese was the third-best Angels hitter by OPS+ (109) last season. Like Pujols, he doesn’t get on base at a high rate, but he does provide enough pop (41 extra-base hits, .420 slugging percentage) to warrant a modest two-year deal.

Since the Angels don’t seem likely to undertake even a short-term rebuild, they have to stick with veteran performers on whom they can depend. Freese falls into that category, even if he’s not the impact hitter the Angels hoped they had acquired from St. Louis two years ago. 

Prediction: Freese re-signs with Angels.

 

Torii Hunter’s Extended Return

When the Minnesota Twins brought Torii Hunter back last winter, it seemed odd that a young, rebuilding franchise would want a 39-year-old outfielder on its roster. 

Then the Twins went out and won 83 games, with a lot of those young players and Hunter working in unison to make it happen.

According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, people in the Twins organization hope to bring Hunter back in 2016.

“Twins people loved the job Torii Hunter did in the clubhouse and are expected to try to bring him back for another year,” Heyman wrote. “Hunter’s influence seems undeniable.”

This is one of those cases in which words like “leadership” and “clubhouse guy” will come up. Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe talked about Hunter’s skills off the field in July with Dave Campbell of the Associated Press.

“The mentality that he brings in, that we’ve kind of embraced, of that short memory, forgetting about yesterday, forgetting about the game that happened an hour ago, that’s something that’s really helped us,” Plouffe said. “That’s kind of been the difference in the team from the years past.”

While those intangibles may hold some type of value, Hunter wasn’t good on the field last season:

Another issue is that the Twins aren’t lacking for outfielders. Eddie Rosario struggled this season with a .289 on-base percentage but is just 24 years old with the potential to get better. Aaron Hicks finally showed flashes of being a capable big leaguer. Max Kepler and Byron Buxton should get a lot of at-bats in 2016, and Miguel Sano, who played mostly as a designated hitter in 2015, is capable of playing right field. 

At Hunter’s age (now 40), his performance isn’t likely to get any better than it was this season, which is a problem, given how talented the young nucleus around him is and what it could be next season. 

The notion of clubhouse chemistry became a hot topic late in the season, with USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale speaking to various players and front-office personnel around baseball about its importance. 

“People that don’t understand what team chemistry means don’t work in baseball,’’ Price told Nightengale. “It makes me mad, because obviously they don’t know how important it is. Ask the Giants. Ask the Royals. Ask the Cardinals.”

No one denies that good relationships between players and coaches help over the course of a season that starts in February and ends in October, but the Giants, Royals and Cardinals are loaded with talent. 

Hunter, at this point in his career, serves no purpose for the Twins on the field. Yet it seems the front office believes in his behind-the-scenes skills so much that it would be a surprise if he doesn’t play one more season.

Prediction: Hunter re-signs with Twins.

 

Stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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2016 MLB Free Agents: Rumors and Predictions for Underrated Assets

Every fan wants his or her team to sign the biggest MLB free agents who are on the market every offseason, but sometimes, the middling contracts are the ones that pay off the most.

Big names like David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes will likely take over headlines as soon as the World Series ends. Still, the smarter organizations will find ways to add productive members to their rosters without limiting payroll flexibility in the future.

Here is a look at some of those options who will be available this upcoming winter.

 

John Lackey, SP

Even at 36 years old, John Lackey can clearly get it done at a high level. The St. Louis Cardinals veteran finished the 2015 season with a 2.77 ERA in 218 innings, including a dominant 1.78 ERA in September.

He then showcased his ability on the national stage with 7.1 shutout innings against the Chicago Cubs in the National League Division Series. After making just $500,000 this season at the veteran minimum, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, it’s time for Lackey to once again get paid.

The Cardinals would certainly like to keep him after his success since acquiring him from the Boston Red Sox. Bernie Miklasz of 101Sports.com notes just how well he has pitched, especially at home:

Some competition will come for the free-agent’s services, though, and interestingly enough, it might be from a team he recently defeated, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

It is not out of the realm of possibility that Lackey could wind up with the Cubs next season as a free agent, according to one major league source. It was Theo Epstein who signed him as a free agent in Boston. Lackey is also a close friend of Jon Lester, who will push Epstein in that direction. Lackey played for the major league minimum of $500,000 this season but also reached incentives that made his contract worth more than $2 million.

Although the Cardinals and Cubs are still battling in the playoffs, Lackey makes a lot of sense for Chicago as another veteran addition who can help the team both in the regular season and beyond. For all the young stars in the lineup, there aren’t many top pitchers on the way, and this could be a reasonably priced addition to the rotation.

With his 2.90 postseason ERA and two World Series rings, he would be a nice addition to a young team likely to contend in 2016.

Predicted destination: Chicago Cubs

 

Daniel Murphy, 2B

It has never been easy for the New York Mets to quantify Daniel Murphy’s value to the team. He isn’t a good defender and often makes mental mistakes in the field and on the basepaths. On the other hand, he is a consistent hitter (batting average between .281 and .291 over last four seasons) and is known for big hits in important moments.

One of those big moments came in Game 1 of the NLDS against Clayton Kershaw, which energized his team when it was needed, via Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal:

Despite his value, Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a “strong sense the Mets also do not plan to give Murphy the $15.8 million qualifying offer.” Sherman added an outlook of what he expects from Murphy’s free agency:

The consensus seems to be Murphy will get a three-year, contract in the $30 million-to-$40 million range. That he is best suited to the AL where his sketchy defense can be mitigated somewhat by, say, playing third base 20-30 games, second 20-30 games, first 20-30 games and DHing 30-50 times. The A’s, Astros and Rays are examples of teams that have valued multi-positional versatility.

Based on what we know about Murphy, this makes a lot of sense. The 30-year-old player was forced to play second base out of necessity for the team, but this has been his worst position. According to Baseball-Reference.com, 507 games at second have cost his team 42 runs compared to average. He has been neutral in 86 games at third base and saved 20 runs in 190 games at first base.

If another team has a better fit for Murphy in the field, he would be a much more valuable addition. As Sherman notes, the versatility should also help in negotiations. Add this to the fact the Mets can easily replace him with Wilmer Flores next season, and a chance of returning to New York seems unlikely.

As for his next location, any of the American League teams mentioned could be solid possibilities. One alternative in the National League could be the San Diego Padres, who have a lot of uncertainty in the infield and could use a left-handed hitter to balance the lineup. He wouldn’t be able to spend time as a designated hitter, but the opportunity for playing time around the field will make the deal worthwhile.

Predicted destination: San Diego Padres

 

Mike Leake, SP

It was an up-and-down year for Mike Leake, but he ended the season as strong as possible. The last start of the season featured a complete-game, two-hit shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers, ending his year with a 3.70 ERA and 11-10 record.

Leake will now hope his performance was enough for his latest team, the San Francisco Giants, to offer a new deal after acquiring him from Cincinnati in a midseason trade. Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted this was a possibility, but another NL West team was also interested:

The Arizona Diamondbacks had a solid season, but a 4.37 starter ERA (23rd in MLB) ruined any chance of making the playoffs. They have stated the plan this offseason is to add more pitching.

“I think that’s the No. 1 goal for Dave [Stewart] and Tony [La Russa] right now—to find a horse that we know when we throw him out there, win or lose, he’s going to give us at least seven innings,” manager Chip Hale said after the season, via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com.

Leake might not win any Cy Young awards, but he has pitched at least 192 innings over each of the last three seasons with an ERA under 4.00 each time. He pitched eight innings or more eight times in 30 starts this season

This goes a long way toward helping a team over the course of a season.

San Francisco might want to keep him around, but Leake to the Diamondbacks makes a lot of sense.

Predicted destination: Arizona Diamondbacks

 

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2016 MLB Free Agents: Rumors and Predictions for Mike Leake, Chris Davis & More

For 22 Major League Baseball teams, all of the focus remains on the field and a quest to win a World Series. The rest of the league is making plans to be where eight teams are at right now, led by the start of free agency in November. 

This is one of the best free-agent classes in recent memory, with a great balance between hitting and pitching. There is no excuse for teams, whether they are in big or small markets, to come out of this winter without having found a way to address their biggest need. 

One big perk of having such a deep and balanced crop of free agents is it works in favor of teams. Simple economics and laws of supply and demand prove that, though in bidding situations, weird things can happen.

Whatever is to come for this year’s crop of free agents, it will be incredibly fun to watch. Until that begins, here’s the latest roundup of rumors and predictions based on what is being talked about.

 

Giants Prioritize Pitching

One of the least surprising stories as the offseason begins in San Francisco is the Giants are looking to upgrade their starting pitching. Madison Bumgarner is fantastic, but there are a lot of questions without answers behind him.

The biggest question will be if the Giants are able to bring back Mike Leake after acquiring him from the Cincinnati Reds at midseason.

According to Alex Pavlovic of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area, Leake is at the top of San Francisco’s wish list right now: 

The focus will almost certainly be Leake, and the right-hander showed what he can do with a two-hitter in his last start for the Giants. Leake didn’t quite live up to expectations after being acquired from the Reds, but the Giants believe he was hampered by hamstring and elbow issues. Fully healthy at the end of the season, Leake had one of the best performances of his career. 

Without trying to sound condescending, Leake is the kind of pitcher a team needs when it already has Bumgarner at the top. The 27-year-old has become a consistent, valuable presence in a starting rotation over the last four years. 

The Giants have holes in their starting rotation because of free agency (Leake, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong), retirement (Tim Hudson) or age/erratic performance (Jake Peavy, Chris Heston). 

Bumgarner has a way of making things look better—because a true ace can put up such ridiculous numbers, everyone else seems impressive by proxy. 

However, the Giants saw the limitations to that strategy this year. Leake seems like a player San Francisco’s front office won’t lose because of his value to the team moving forward and because the Giants traded two quality minor leaguers (Keury Mella and Adam Duvall) to get him in July. 

Prediction: Leake re-signs with Giants

 

Orioles’ Plea for Chris Davis

Chris Davis has had a fascinating three-year stretch. He finished third in AL MVP voting in 2013, was a mess offensively in 2014 before being suspended for 25 games after testing positive for amphetamines and missed Baltimore’s playoff run, then hit 47 homers with a .923 OPS in 2015. 

Now, the Orioles’ star first baseman is getting to test the market for the first time in his career. His case will be fascinating to watch play out, as he’s a player who could easily fall on his face again because of his problems making contact. 

However, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, that isn’t stopping Baltimore manager Buck Showalter from pleading with owner Peter Angelos about trying to retain the 29-year-old:

We keep hearing that manager Buck Showalter will make a strong case to owner Peter Angelos to make an effort to re-sign Davis. Davis is essential to allowing the Orioles to be able to compete somewhat with the Blue Jays’ lineup. Losing Davis after losing Nelson Cruz would be a huge blow to the Orioles’ offense. Agent Scott Boras also thinks there’s a chance the Orioles will step up given their resources.

The Cruz aspect of this scenario is interesting because few people would have predicted he was going to follow up a 40-homer season in 2014 with 44 bombs with the Mariners in Seattle this year. 

Davis is nearly six years younger than Cruz and has led the league in homers two of the past three seasons, but that also gives him a lot of leverage in any negotiation because power is always in demand. 

There’s also the matter of how much the Orioles want to invest in offense when their starting rotation finished 22nd in innings pitched and 25th in ERA. This franchise needs to figure out what it’s doing with pitchers from a development standpoint. 

For evidence of that, just look at what the Chicago Cubs were able to do with Jake Arrieta after acquiring him in a trade two years ago, the erratic use of Kevin Gausman between the rotation and bullpen or why top prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey have been unable to stay healthy since the team drafted them. 

Something has gone completely wrong with Baltimore’s ability to develop high-end starting pitching, which means the franchise has to either change its philosophy with players coming through the system or try to build a rotation through free agency. 

Taking that into consideration, the Orioles seem unlikely to retain Davis even if they are able to afford him. 

Prediction: Davis signs with another team

 

Marlins Teasing Major Moves

It’s been a few years since the Miami Marlins have gone on a huge free-agent spending spree—last year, the front office did invest a lot of money in locking up Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich—making this winter an opportune time for the front office to tease some big things. 

According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Marlins do have some level of interest in two of the better pitchers available this winter. 

“The Marlins like impending free agents Johnny Cueto (Kansas City) and Mike Leake (San Francisco), but they would be too expensive unless Jeffrey Loria is willing to spend a ton,” Jackson wrote. “Numerous cheaper options will be discussed.”

The latter option seems more likely given what everyone knows about the Marlins’ spending habits, though if they are willing to open the checkbooks, Cueto could be on the radar simply because his market is so hard to project. 

Everyone knows what Leake is—a solid mid-rotation starter who will throw 180-190 innings every year—and that kind of pitcher will get $15-16 million per season. 

Cueto has as much upside as any free-agent pitcher this winter not named David Price. He’s finished in the top five of NL Cy Young voting twice, posted ERA totals between 2.25 and 2.82 in four consecutive seasons from 2011-14 and thrown at least 212 innings in three of the past four seasons. 

However, the 29-year-old doesn’t look the part of a workhorse as he ages at just 5’11” and 220 pounds. Pedro Martinez is the gold standard of undersized pitchers who dominated for a long stretch of time, and he performed at an elite level through his age-33 season in 2005. 

Cueto isn’t at Martinez’s level—because few pitchers in baseball history have ever been—and he has already had injury problems. He only made 11 starts in 2013 and missed time earlier this season because of elbow problems. His MRI did come back clean, but the right-hander has looked mediocre in 13 starts with Kansas City. 

At his peak, Cueto could get paid like an ace in the $175-180 million range, but all of the questions make it hard to envision him getting a deal at that level unless a team wants to overpay. 

The Marlins have an ace in Jose Fernandez who looked terrific in the second half after returning from Tommy John surgery, but they could certainly use help behind him. 

If Miami owner Jeffrey Loria gets serious about spending money again—which is a HUGE IF because of his historyCueto may simply let the Marlins make the highest offer and take it. 

It doesn’t seem like a scenario that will actually happen, but Loria tends to do weird things that leave people throwing their hands up in ways that are good and bad. 

Prediction: Marlins opt for cheaper options

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2016 MLB Free Agents: Rumors and Bold Predictions for Underrated Stars

All eyes will be on free agents like David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jason Heyward this offseason, but considering the limited number of Major League Baseball teams able to get in a bidding war for that trio, under-the-radar stars and bounce-back candidates are more valuable commodities.

There are signees every winter who don’t draw many headlines, yet manage to end up looking great in hindsight. Jung Ho Kang was an unknown commodity coming over from South Korea, yet turned out to be the second-best National League shortstop as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015. 

Considering the Pirates can’t get in bidding wars for top players, Kang‘s contract for $11 million over four years gives the franchise a lot of flexibility to upgrade other areas of need. 

This year’s crop of free agents is a deep group, with a strong split between pitchers and hitters, so there will be plenty of opportunities for teams to choose from. 

With very-early rumors starting to trickle out, here are the underrated stars who are already starting to attract attention. 

 

Gerardo Parra, OF (Age: 28)

Gerardo Parra was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles before the July trade deadline in an effort to shore up their porous outfield situation. Instead, the 28-year-old seemed to make things worse, at least offensively, with a .574 OPS in 51 games. 

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Parra, who was having a career year with Milwaukee before being traded. 

Ultimately, Parra‘s pace with Milwaukee was too good to be true and his current output with Baltimore is just one of those random baseball variances that can happen. He’s still at an age and has enough of a track record to think he will return next year closer to his .728 career OPS

In terms of suitors, James Wagner of the Washington Post speculates the Nationals could be a good landing spot for Parra because of his relationship to key members of the front office:

(General manager Mike) Rizzo was the Diamondbacks scouting director when Parra was signed out of his native Venezuela in 2004, and (manager Matt) Williams was on the coaching staff there when Parra patrolled the outfield and won two Gold Gloves. Even after Rizzo moved to Washington and took over the organization, the Nationals remained interested in Parra.

A big part of Parra‘s value is his ability to play all three outfield positions. The Nationals have to deal with possibly losing center fielder Denard Span this offseason. Jayson Werth will still be occupying left field, barring some team willing to trade for him and take on the final two years of his contract. 

Some guy named Bryce Harper is in right field and may have that job locked down for a couple of years. Michael Taylor was given an extended look this season due to Span battling injuries, showing stellar defensive chops with minimal offensive upside.

Even though Parra has played all three outfield positions, he’s best suited to a corner. From 2013-14, he ranked second behind Heyward among right fielders in FanGraphs‘ defensive value. 

Given how Parra ended this season and his limited offensive upside, the Nationals could sign him on a cheap deal for one or two years. 

Assuming they have to start 2016 with Werth in left field, Parra can play well enough in center field. He’s not a difference-making star, yet hits for average with enough power to be a solid offensive contributor with strong defensive chops in the right position. 

Prediction: Nationals sign Parra to one-year, $10 million deal

 

Doug Fister, RHP (Age: 31)

Doug Fister picked a bad year to battle injuries, lose his spot in Washington’s rotation and post the worst ERA of his career, as the soon-to-be free agent has gone from earning a solid four- or five-year deal to possibly having to settle for a one- or two-year contract. 

The good news is that makes Fister a great commodity, especially since he had a strong five-year track record before things fell apart in 2015. He’s not an overpowering pitcher, averaging only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings in his career.

Fister‘s success depends on his ability to pepper the strike zone and generate ground balls, making him an ideal candidate for a team in need of starting pitching help that already has a strong defense in place.

According to Jeff Blair of SportsNet.ca, the newly crowned American League East champion Toronto Blue Jays “will make a play” for Fister

The Blue Jays don’t figure to have much of a shot at retaining Price, unless ownership is so energized by this postseason run that they give general manager Alex Anthopoulos around $210 million-$215 million to invest in the left-hander. 

As a result, Anthopoulos will have to get creative to avoid a decline next season. Fister isn’t a No. 1 starter, but can be a high-end No. 3. Toronto isn’t an elite defensive squad but is good enough, ranking middle of the pack in FanGraphs‘ defensive value and 10th in defensive runs saved.

By comparison, Washington’s 2015 defense has cost the team 12 runs.

With Marcus Stroman back and making a strong impression and R.A. Dickey providing solid innings, Fister can slot in right as the No. 3 in this rotation, knowing the Blue Jays will score a ton of runs and be able to compete for another division title in 2016. 

Prediction: Blue Jays sign Fister to two-year, $22 million deal

 

Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP (Age: 34)

The Seattle Mariners are entering a new era with Jerry DiPoto as general manager, hoping to finally live up to the hype that was around them coming into 2015.

Yet one key piece of the equation is scheduled to hit free agency, Hisashi Iwakuma. The 34-year-old has been nicked up this season, making 19 starts, but has still posted strong strikeout (7.6 per nine innings) and WHIP numbers (1.052). 

DiPoto told ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden that Iwakuma is going to be a priority for the Mariners this offseason. 

Iwakuma‘s contract is going to be interesting because he’s an older free agent, so his leverage isn’t as strong as a typical pitcher with his credentials. He does keep good company in the ERA category, per Gary Hill of Mariners.com:

The Mariners are in a good position to spend money this offseason, as Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists them as having $78.9 million on the books for 2016, down from the $123 million mark when this season started. 

However, included in Bowden’s piece, DiPoto emphasized the need to build a team that’s suited to Safeco Field and building a better defensive outfield. It’s reasonable to expect the M’s to make a run at outfield upgrades for all three positions, which will take a lot of money. 

Plus, it’s not like the Mariners are lacking starting pitching. Felix Hernandez remains one of the best in the business. Taijuan Walker needs to get more consistent, but showed a lot of progress this season. James Paxton will always have erratic control and needs to stay healthy, but lefties with his stuff are hard to find. 

Prediction: Iwakuma doesn’t re-sign with Seattle.

 

Stats via Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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MLB Free Agents 2015-16: B/R’s Initial Top 25 Big Board

With the final weekend of MLB‘s regular season upon us and the postseason just around the corner, fans around the league are gearing up for what promises to be another exciting month of playoff baseball.

That being said, things tend to move quickly once the World Series wraps up and the offseason officially begins, so it’s never too early to take a look ahead at the upcoming crop of free agents.

What follows will be our initial top 25 big board of the best available free agents around the league this coming winter.

Players are ranked on both the immediate impact they are expected to make upon signing and the long-term impact they are expected to have on the team.

As a result, things like age, past track record and regression indicators had to be taken into account as opposed to simply looking at the surface numbers a player has produced here in 2015.

For position players, offensive abilities carried the most weight, as is generally the case on the free-agent market, but defense was also a factor, and you will see that displayed in defensive runs saved (DRS) and ultimate zone rate per 150 games (UZR/150).

With pitchers, ace-caliber arms in their prime obviously took the top spots, but after that the value of a mid-level pitcher with age on his side (someone like Mike Leake) had to be weighed against a veteran who may be better in the short term but less useful long-term (someone like John Lackey).

Not many relievers made the grade, as they are simply too volatile on a year-in and year-out basis to justify committing big money. There were three bullpen arms that made the cut, though, due in large part to their consistency.

With that, I give you Bleacher Report’s initial top 25 big board of upcoming MLB free agents.

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2016 MLB Free Agents: Predictions for Top Pitchers Set to Hit Open Market

The MLB postseason and World Series still have to unfold before a true gauge can be had of the 2016 free-agent market, but it’s late enough in the 162-game marathon of a regular season to speculate.

Perhaps the No. 1 reminder at this time of year is how paramount starting pitching is. It’s what tends to separate the contenders from the pretenders as the MLB’s elite gears up for a pursuit of pro baseball’s top prize.

But the absence of a salary cap and hefty paydays top-tier pitchers command always complicate matters. Those factors contribute to an air of uncertainty as to whether they will stick with their current clubs despite their obvious, enormous value.

Let’s check in to see how the best dealers in baseball due to hit the open market are faring this year and predict what might happen when they do become free agents.

 

David Price, Toronto Blue Jays

The spark David Price has provided since arriving in Toronto through a deadline trade can’t be minimized. Credit the Blue Jays for being aggressive to upgrade their roster, but Price’s brilliance is almost more than fans could have hoped for.

Price has a 9-1 record in 11 starts since joining the Jays. Prior to his last American League East winning decision over his former club Tampa Bay, ESPN’s Jayson Stark highlighted the impact Price has had on Toronto:

The mighty New York Yankees were atop the AL East, suggesting a return to form by the Bronx Bombers. But Price time and again bested the Yankees as the Blue Jays blew by them in position to capture the divisional crown.

Stellar as Toronto’s rotation is as it stands with R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle on the staff in addition to Price, Buehrle is a free agent after the year is over and is 36 years old (h/t Spotrac). It’s unclear how much Buehrle has left in him. He has a decent 3.76 ERA at the moment but also benefits from the club’s MLB-leading offense in the form of ample run support.

Dickey is 40 years old in his own right and could well retire if Toronto emerges with the Commissioner’s Trophy. Marco Estrada, who has the highest 2015 WAR rating of the Jays starters excluding Price at 3.4 (h/t ESPN.com), is also free to sign elsewhere this winter.

“He does wonders for us, on and off the field. I’m going to do everything in my power to get him back here for sure,” said fellow Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman of Price, per CBC News.

All of this points to the Blue Jays brass’ prioritizing Price above all in the offseason. An ace of Price’s caliber doesn’t come along often, and Toronto has to feel extremely fortunate to have him.

The price tag is going to be heavy but well worth it if the Jays muster the gusto to pay their revelation of a southpaw. Price is in a promising situation with Toronto and will likely seek stability after bouncing around to three different teams within the past two years.

Prediction: Price re-signs with Blue Jays.

 

Johnny Cueto, Kansas City Royals

A rough patch of five starts from late August to mid-September saw Johnny Cueto yield 30 runs (28 earned) in 26.1 innings. Since then, he’s rediscovered some form, conceding just eight runs in his past three appearances spanning 20 innings.

The playoffs will likely determine whether Cueto remains in Kansas City. While a player such as Price has proved to be capable and clutch in October before, Cueto sports a 0-2 record with a 5.19 ERA in three prior postseason starts.

Having posted a 20-win season in which he led the National League in strikeouts with Cincinnati just last year, though, there’s no denying Cueto is an elite talent. He is also only 29 years old and figures to produce for most of the duration—if not the entire duration—of his next big contract.

The unusual windup and delivery Cueto has can’t be replicated and will help him keep hitters off balance even when he gets into the latter stages of his career. That makes a long-term investment worthwhile and should put any prospective suitors at ease to a degree.

MLB.com’s Cut4 Twitter account showed the effectiveness of Cueto’s knack for confusing the opposition:

Starting pitching is a bit of a weakness for the Royals, so they ought to strongly consider keeping Cueto in the fold. They rank tied 25th in the MLB with 67 quality starts entering Wednesday’s games.

Nevertheless, Kansas City will likely let Cueto walk. He hasn’t lived up to expectations since the club acquired him just prior to the trade deadline and also no-showed for a fan event in early September. Cueto has even openly admitted to a desire to play for Boston.

“It depends,” said Cueto in August about possibly joining the Red Sox, per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. “Because I’m a free agent, and I’m just going to pick the best choice to go. The main thing—I would like to come here because it’s a championship-caliber team.”

The merging of Cueto and the Royals hasn’t seemed like a comfortable fit for either side. Cueto will have his pick of the lot as to where he wants to get a fresh start, but the Green Monster at Fenway Park is certainly pitcher-friendly.

If Cueto lights it up in the playoffs, there’s little reason for Kansas City to let him go. This is a preliminary projection for a player who can essentially play for whoever is willing to fork over the appropriate funds. A big-market team such as Boston makes a lot of sense in that regard too.

Prediction: Cueto signs with Red Sox.

 

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals

Turmoil has infected these 2015 Nationals. Despite a loaded pitching rotation and no shortage of overall talent on the roster, Washington is out of the playoff picture.

Nationals manager Matt Williams has come under intense scrutiny and reportedly lost the team during a disappointing year, as the Washington Post‘s Barry Svrluga wrote. Washington’s brightest young star, Bryce Harper, got into a dugout scuffle with closer Jonathan Papelbon recently as well.

A change of scenery would seem to suit Jordan Zimmermann in light of his regression following the All-Star break. ESPN’s Mike Wise doesn’t believe it’s feasible for the Nationals to retain Zimmermann as it is:

Anyone with the freedom to leave Washington after the 2015 campaign is bound to exercise that right or at least seriously consider doing so in the end. Zimmermann is chief among the free agents who can exit the dysfunctional clubhouse.

Speaking of the Red Sox, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo admitted in April to discussing a trade involving Zimmermann last offseason with former Boston GM Ben Cherington, according to the Boston Herald‘s Jason Mastrodonato. Now the Red Sox are in the midst of a new front-office regime, so perhaps Zimmermann isn’t as prominent on their radar now.

One team executing a lengthy rebuild that is finally paying dividends is the Chicago Cubs. In November 2014, Chicago was reportedly engaged in trade talks to acquire Zimmermann, according to the Chicago Sun-Times (via MLB.com’s Bill Ladson).

Now that the Cubs are established with a loaded young nucleus that will play in the postseason this year and has all the makings of a future perennial contender, there’s more to sell Zimmermann on in their free-agent pitch.

As it stands for now, the Cubs are approximately $57.5 million below the luxury-tax threshold, per Spotrac. Enough money ought to be available for a marquee free agent such as Zimmermann. Chicago’s bullpen has been solid in 2015, but its starting rotation would be transcendent with another big-time player to plug in with Jon Lester and newly minted 20-game winner Jake Arrieta.

Based on the prior apparent interest and a roster burgeoning with upside, Zimmermann seems like a logical fit on the north side of the Windy City.

Prediction: Zimmermann signs with Cubs.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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