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Even though free agency in Major League Baseball is one of the most exciting times of the year for fans and players, it’s also one of the most painful and arduous if you fall into the former category. 

There’s so much hearsay and speculation about where an impact hitter or pitcher could end up that it only leads to heartbreak when the dreaded “mystery team” shows up to spoil everything. 

Of course, fans of smaller-market teams have grown accustomed to the pain of free agency. Even great-run franchises, like the Kansas City Royals, have to know that Johnny Cueto‘s potential asking price will be far more than they can afford. 

Yet for all the pain that can come with free agency, the winter is when fans are at their most optimistic because all 30 teams are making moves, large or small, to make that postseason push and hopefully play for a World Series in 2016. 

Taking a look at the list of free agents this offseason, it’s going to be a busy and expensive time for a lot of teams.

Note: Players with options (Zack Greinke, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, etc.) are not included on free-agent list.

There are a lot of names, both at the top and secondary guys, who should provide great value both in 2016 and beyond.

Looking at the potential market for all of the stars, these are the few who appear to be locks to sign with a new team this winter. 

Johnny Cueto, RHP (Kansas City Royals)

No free agent this winter will be as frustrating to figure out as Cueto. The right-hander has shown in the past he can be dominant, boasting two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young voting (2012, 2014). 

However, there are a lot of maddening stretches with Cueto where he’s either unable to pitch due to injury or looks pedestrian. 

Take for instance the stark contrast between what Cueto has done in 2015 with Cincinnati and Kansas City:

Basically, Cueto has provided the same value in Kansas City that a replacement-level pitcher would have. It is a small sample size, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.55 is actually better than what it was with the Reds (4.14). 

The postseason will really determine if Cueto is going to be the second- or third-best pitcher available. David Price is a lock in the top spot and seems likely to get a near-record deal. Jordan Zimmermann is in the mix with Cueto for that second spot. 

Last year, the Royals knew they likely weren’t going to re-sign James Shields, but it likely became easier to let him walk when he posted a 6.12 ERA in the playoffs. 

Cueto also has to fight against being short. He’s a 5’9″ right-hander, and that kind of pitcher doesn’t traditionally age well. Tim Lincecum (5’11”) was basically done at the age of 28. 

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote on Sunday that there are teams that have concerns about Cueto‘s ability to stay healthy over the course of an entire season.

“He’ll have to convince shoppers this offseason that he’s physically fine,” Cafardo wrote. “There will likely be a lot of medical attention devoted to Cueto. One AL executive stayed away from Cueto at the trade deadline because of a possible elbow issue.”

The hope for a team will be that Cueto is on the Pedro Martinez career arc, in which Martinez stayed at an All-Star level through his age-33 season before injuries took away what made him great. 

However, that’s not exactly the kind of player who figures to get a huge six- or seven-year deal. Cueto could do well on a four-year deal with some kind of vesting option for a fifth year based on number of starts and/or innings pitched. 

That makes finding a potential suitor difficult, especially since the major-market teams in need of pitching all figure to be in on Price and Zimmermann. 

One team that makes sense is San Francisco. The Giants will have at least two holes in the rotation to fill with Tim Hudson retiring and the Lincecum era likely ending, but they also have free agents like Ryan Vogelsong and Mike Leake to worry about. 

Madison Bumgarner is the only safe bet to be in the Giants rotation next season. Chris Heston is a back-end starter, at best, and Jake Peavy, 34, really doesn’t offer much at this stage of his career. 

Even if Leake re-signs, the Giants still need a strong No. 2 starter to plug in behind Bumgarner. Cueto could thrive back in the National League in a big park with a solid defense behind him. 

San Francisco has about $57 million coming off the payroll this offseason, before factoring in arbitration-eligible players, so general manager Brian Sabean should have plenty of room to play with. This franchise has won three titles since 2010 largely around great starting pitching and solid offense. 

Prediction: Cueto signs with Giants for four years, $110 million.

Justin Upton, LF (San Diego Padres)

Even though the San Diego Padres’ spending extravaganza last winter turned out to be a bust, Justin Upton’s performance in 2015 might actually work in his favor. 

That’s unusual to say because Upton’s .790 OPS will be his worst in a full season, but a deeper dive into the numbers shows how impressive the 28-year-old has actually been. 

Upton’s biggest problem in 2015 has been hitting left-handed pitching (.191/.258/.300), but that doesn’t line up with what he’s done throughout his career against southpaws (.273/.380/.506). This seems like one of those weird one-year outliers that can happen in baseball. 

Another reason to be optimistic about Upton’s future is playing in Petco Park is a hitter’s nightmare, yet he’s still slugging .454 overall and has hit 15 of his 26 homers at home. Putting him in a different park should easily get him into 30-homer territory for the first time since 2011. 

Padres general manager A.J. Preller told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com in August that the team will look to keep Upton beyond this season. 

“He’s definitely going to be one of the options we talk about,” Preller said. “He’s made a very positive impression here. We’re going to sit down in the offseason and see what we can do with him.”

Unless the Padres just dwarf every other offer, it’s hard to see a scenario in which Upton returns. 

Instead, let’s look at the other side of the country with the Baltimore Orioles losing virtually their entire roster this winter. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, before factoring in arbitration-eligible players, $77 million is coming off the payroll. 

The Orioles have to remake their roster this winter, though they will have core players like Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Kevin Gausman to work with. Gausman‘s development as a starter next season will be critical because there is no pitching coming.

Top prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey can’t stay healthy, so their potential arrival in the big leagues is a mystery. Baltimore’s front office will likely prioritize starting pitching over offense, but Orioles’ left fielders in 2015 have a combined slash line of .212/.289/.352.

Even better news is no one else in the American League East should be seeking help in left field. New York has Brett Gardner. Boston is building around a slew of young outfielders. Toronto has Ben Revere for another two years. Tampa Bay can’t afford Upton, even if it wanted to make an offer. 

Prediction: Upton signs with Orioles for six years, $115 million.

Doug Fister, RHP (Washington Nationals)

Doug Fister is a free agent I wanted to include because he’s going to be a pitcher every team has a chance to sign. The 31-year-old has been bad this season, which works to the advantage of teams. 

For the first time since 2010, Fister will finish a season with a below-average ERA+ (95), and he does have injury concerns after spending time on the disabled list each of the last two seasons. He’s been taken out of Washington’s rotation, making one start since August. 

James Wagner of the Washington Post did rave about Fister‘s two-inning relief stint against Baltimore on Sept. 22:

An effective sinker from Fister is what teams want to see at this late date. He’s never been a huge strikeout pitcher, so keeping the ball on the ground is what he needs to do. His ground-ball rate this year of 44.6 percent will be his lowest since his rookie season in 2009. 

Given the way everything has fallen apart for Fister in 2015, he seems like a candidate to sign a one-year, incentive-laden deal and hit the market again next winter to get one long-term deal before his prime years pass by.

If that turns out to be the case, the field is open for all 30 teams to get in on the bidding. A perfect landing spot for the right-hander would be Kansas City. 

The Royals should be looking for starting pitching for the second consecutive offseason. A team can only count on Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Kris Medlen and Chris Young for so long. 

Fister‘s knack for letting hitters put the ball in play would fit beautifully with the Royals because of how great the defense is. They’ve proven this year that it’s possible to be a great team without a starter whom anyone would classify as a quality No. 1 or 2 on a playoff team. (Cueto does fit in that category, though he played most of this season with Cincinnati.)

Since the Royals can’t play with the major-market teams, they have to find bargains wherever possible. Their philosophy of building around speed on offense and a defense that can cover a ton of ground will appeal to many ground-ball-type pitchers whose overall talent won’t get them a huge contract. 

Prediction: Fister signs with the Royals for one year, $10 million.

Stats via Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com. 

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With the regular season coming to a close in the near future and the postseason almost ready to get underway, the focus for teams on the outside looking in is shifting toward next season.

Nailing the offseason is of the utmost importance for teams looking to rebuild or retool for next year, and with a number of impact players set to hit the open market—Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com have gone through the trouble of compiling a list of said players—the rumor mill, while currently short on content, should pick up steam in the coming weeks.

Yoenis Cespedes and Marlon Byrd are two names swirling around the inner circles of Major League Baseball, and they just so happen to be among the biggest names available this offseason. So, as we turn our focus to the postseason and eventual offseason, here’s a look at the most recent rumors regarding those two players as well as predictions of where they might end up.

Marlon Byrd to Stay Put in San Francisco?

Marlon Byrd may have no say in where he ends up playing in 2016. The 14-year veteran has a vesting option written into his contract, and that option takes effect if he reaches 550 plate appearances prior to the end of the 2015 season.

Byrd is dangerously close to crossing that plate-appearance threshold and needs just 23 more in the team’s final five games to have that option vest. If it doesn’t, then the option converts to a team option, which will likely be declined. 

Operating under the premise that Byrd fails to reach 550 plate appearances, let’s assume the ensuing team option gets declined.

Even if all that happens, Byrd may end up back in San Francisco for 2016. According to Giants beat writer Henry Schulman, the Giants are interested in bringing back the 38-year-old:

Byrd has been solid in 2015 and has proved to be a worthwhile addition to the Giants roster despite the fact that they’re going to miss the playoffs this year. Over 129 games played (527 plate appearances), Byrd has compiled a .249/.294/.454 batting line with 22 home runs, 24 doubles, 72 RBI and 55 runs scored.

Byrd’s sub-.300 on-base percentage leaves a lot to be desired, and, as Schulman notes, whether he seeks a backup or starting role will be a major factor in his final landing spot. 

Prediction: Byrd re-signs with the Giants.

Yoenis Cespedes on the Giants’ Radar too?

According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, “There is speculation within other organizations that the Giants could be among the teams to pursue Yoenis Cespedes.” That said, Olney wonders if Cespedes‘ incredible second half has sent his price skyrocketing to a level the Giants would find uncomfortable.

There’s merit to both sides of the rumor.

Cespedes—with his plus defense and his ability to hit for power in pitchers’ parks—would be a great get for the Giants, who rank 12th in home runs through this point in the year among National League clubs. Additionally, the 29-year-old would be an upgrade over current right fielder and potential free agent Marlon Byrd.

Cespedes outpaces Byrd by wide margins in practically every offensive measure available—for reference, their OPS+ marks settle in at 138 and 103, respectively, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

Unlike Byrd, though, Cespedes has taken off with his new club, logging an unbelievable 17 home runs, 44 RBI and 38 runs scored in just 52 games with the New York Mets. That, as Olney notes, might have pushed the price too high for the Giants, who have to worry about a Madison Bumgarner extension in a few years.

Whether the price has gone too high is irrelevant in this writer’s mind, as Cespedes‘ play in the second half has possibly earned him a blank check from the Mets as well as several other teams.

If he can get that six-year deal he told ESPN’s Marly Rivera about, then Cespedes won’t be in San Fran or Queens. 

Prediction: Cespedes spurns the Mets and the Giants and sells his services to the highest bidder.

Follow me on Twitter! Follow @TylerDuma.

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There is still an exciting month of playoff baseball separating us from what promises to be another busy offseason around the league, but it’s never too early to start looking ahead at how free agency might play out.

The crop of pitching talent is deep once again, headlined by a handful of aces in David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and Zack Greinke, assuming he opts out of his contract as expected.

Behind them, second-tier guys such as Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo and Mike Leake should also be in line for sizable contracts.

Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard and Darren O’Day top the list of relievers on the market, and all three figure to be hotly pursued with a number of teams in need of bullpen help.

On the offensive side of things, sluggers Chris Davis, Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes will receive plenty of attention, while guys such as Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon should also have no problem landing a nine-figure deal.

As a preview of sorts for the offseason ahead, let’s take a look at one realistic free-agent fit for all 30 MLB teams.

These projected fits were reached with a combination of rumors from around the league and speculation on my part based on team needs and past free-agency trends. Obviously, a lot can change between now and the start of free agency.

For now, here’s a look ahead at some potential offseason free-agency fits.

Note: A number of players could be considered a realistic fit for multiple teams, but for the sake of this exercise, each player was only included once.

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There is still a lot of baseball to be played between now and the offseason, but it’s never too early to look ahead at what promises to be an exciting winter around the league.

This year’s free-agent class will be headlined by a trio of legitimate aces in David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann. On the offensive side of things, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes highlight the top position players on the market.

With that in mind, what follows is an early free-agency preview for all 30 teams.

It features a close look at each team’s top free agent, as well as an overview of everyone else the team is slated to lose and players with team or player options for next year as well.

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It’s never too early to think ahead. With the MLB season chugging along toward its conclusion, some downtrodden teams already have their eyes on the offseason.

Clubs not harboring any postseason aspirations will be fantasizing about free agents. Not everyone possesses the deep pockets to sign a superstar, meaning some top names will shift locations as small-market clubs get more creative.

Nobody wants to think about dark winter days when the summer sun is shining bright, but the Starks have a saying about that. Months from now, baseball season will be over, and everyone will spend their time agonizing over every offseason step.

These two hitters are nearly a decade apart in age and will become multiple millions apart in salary, but both are bolstering their stock this season. Let’s take a look at what may lie ahead for them.

Yoenis Cespedes

When the New York Mets acquired Yoenis Cespedes before the non-waiver trade deadline, they knew they were getting a rental. Desperate for their first playoff appearance since 2006 and embarrassed by the Carlos Gomez trade that never happened, they splurged on the Detroit Tigers outfielder at the end of his original four-year deal.

Shortly after his arrival, he spoke fondly of his brief time with the Mets, per ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin.

“This is something I can’t control,” Cespedes said through an interpreter. “I don’t know what the front office is thinking about. But with what I see so far, I would love for everything to work out and stay as a Met for a long, long time, because I like the atmosphere.”

Yet even if his desire to stay amounts to more than a polite sentiment, the Wilpons won’t shell out the cash necessary to keep him. They’re on the hook to pay Michael Cuddyer $12.5 million next year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and Michael Conforto is ready to take over left field, while they hope a healthy Juan Lagares returns to 2013 form in center.

Cespedes is pricing himself out of most teams’ reach with a career year, hitting .290/.319/.490 with 18 homers. While he offered better numbers as a rookie in 2012, he has excelled in left field, registering the top ultimate zone rating (UZR) among left fielders.

Even with his .316 career on-base percentage, the 29-year-old will land a lucrative payday due to his power and defense. As one agent told the Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo, “A five-year, $100 million deal isn’t out of the question.”

Who can shell out that cash? Perhaps the team that just sold him. USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale suggested Cespedes and the Tigers parted ways on good terms:

The Boston Red Sox held a similar thought when trading Jon Lester for Cespedes last summer, but the ace instead bolted to the Chicago Cubs.

Like Boston, Detroit is a big-market, perennial contender that decided to accumulate assets for a pending free agent during a down year. Under owner Mike Ilitch, the Tigers are unlikely to start rebuilding over the winter. Expect them to orchestrate a reunion with the slugger they acquired for Rick Porcello last offseason.

Prediction: Cespedes rejoins Tigers for five-year, $110 million deal.

A.J. Pierzynski

Although he’s not at Cespedes‘ level, A.J. Pierzynski has helped his market value with a strong campaign. The 38-year-old catcher is enjoying his best offensive output since 2012, hitting .296/.333/.434 with seven homers and a 1.7 WAR for the Atlanta Braves.

Despite remaining an aggressive batter, he’s searching for his first .300 average since 2009 with help from a microscopic 8.5 strikeout percentage and his highest line-drive percentage (24.2) since 2002. Last Friday, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution noted his hot streak before adding two more hits on Saturday:

Most clubs with a 51-62 record would have converted that stretch into a prospect at the non-waiver trade deadline, but the Braves are considering keeping him around for next season instead. According to Cafardo, they’re open to bringing back the fiery veteran.

“While it’s not assured yet,” he wrote, “the Braves want Pierzynski back for another season if the price is right.”

Before the season began, Atlanta seemingly acknowledged its need for fresh blood by dealing Craig Kimbrel and Jason Heyward, who will also hit free agency this offseason. But they recently acquired Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher from the Cleveland Indians, two highly compensated veterans on the way down. 

Strong season aside, Pierzynski shouldn’t inspire a bidding war this winter. In 2014, he hit .251/.288/.337 with a minus-0.6 WAR and a career-low five homers. The catcher is already defying the odds by remaining upright and productive at age 38, so why gamble on him being astounding at 39?

If the Braves want him back as a regular contributor, they shouldn’t have much trouble working something out.

Prediction: Pierzynski signs two-year, $14 million deal to close out career.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

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After an absurdly busy trade deadline that saw David Price head to Canada and Johnny Cueto land with the reigning American League champs, the playoff picture is looking a whole lot different than it did just a couple of weeks ago.

The way that all 30 clubs will be approaching the upcoming offseason is also looking different now that all those moves have been made. From swinging trades to signing free agents, each team will have its own set of goals it’s hoping to accomplish when the winter rolls around.

Admittedly, some of those goals will be more obtainable than others. For teams like the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs, one of the top goals will be trying to ditch a couple of overpaid underachievers.

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This past offseason saw plenty of pitchers cash in on the free-agent market, but the upcoming class of free-agent arms could be the best we’ve seen in a long time.

Last winter, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields headlined a solid crop of starters that also included the likes of Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana, Edinson Volquez, Jake Peavy, Brandon McCarthy and Jason Hammel.

This time around, there are once again a trio of ace-caliber arms at the top in David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmerman, but the arms behind them are deeper than any group in recent memory.

Let’s start with a quick ranking of the top 25 starters who could potentially be available.

1. David Price
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Jordan Zimmermann
4. Jeff Samardzija
5. Doug Fister
6. Scott Kazmir
7. Ian Kennedy
8. Mat Latos
9. Hisashi Iwakuma
10. Yovani Gallardo
11. Mike Leake
12. Wei-Yin Chen
13. Mark Buehrle
14. Kyle Lohse
15. Bartolo Colon
16. Tim Lincecum
17. A.J. Burnett
18. Tim Hudson
19. Bud Norris
20. John Lackey
21. Alfredo Simon
22. J.A. Happ
23. Aaron Harang
24. Brandon Morrow
25. Justin Masterson

They are obviously not all front-line starters, but those are 25 pitchers who should be able to legitimately make an impact on a team’s pitching staff in 2016 and beyond.

This group will be worth keeping an eye on throughout the 2015 season, as guys jockey for position on that list and try to set themselves up for an even more lucrative payday.

For now, let’s take a look at a handful of pitchers whose stocks are up and a few whose stocks are trending in the other direction as well.

Stock Up

Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics

(4 GS, 2-0, 0.99 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 0.88 WHIP, 9 BB, 30 K, 27.1 IP)

Out of the majors altogether in 2012, Scott Kazmir has been one of the more impressive comeback stories in recent memory, and at 31 years old, he still has plenty of good baseball ahead of him.

A bounce-back season with the Cleveland Indians in 2013 earned him a two-year, $22 million deal from the Oakland Athletics, who were in need of a veteran starter to replace Bartolo Colon in the rotation.

At that price, the left-hander wound up being a steal, as he went 15-9 with a 3.55 ERA and made the All-Star team for the third time in his career.

He’s put himself in a good position to at least land something in the neighborhood of the three-year, $39 million deal Francisco Liriano signed this past offseason, and if his hot start continues, that price tag figures to climb.

“Every time he goes out there, we feel like we have a good chance to win, even if we’re not squaring the bats well,” manager Bob Melvin told Jane Lee of MLB.com.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

(3 GS, 1-1, 2.00 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 7 BB, 14 K, 18.0 IP)

It wasn’t all that long ago that Tim Lincecum was very much in the conversation for the title of best pitcher in the game.

From 2008 to 2011, he went 62-36 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.173 WHIP and 977 strikeouts in 881.2 innings. That stretch included three strikeout titles, four All-Star appearances and a pair of NL Cy Young awards.

However, in the three years since, he’s been a different pitcher, posting a 32-38 record with a 4.76 ERA and 1.391 WHIP.

Those struggles didn’t stop the Giants from handing the 30-year-old a two-year, $35 million extension prior to the 2014 season, and if he keeps pitching well, the team could be inclined to lock him up for at least a couple more seasons.

Alfredo Simon, Detroit Tigers

(3 GS, 3-0, 1.74 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, 2 BB, 12 K, 20.2 IP)

Count me among those who were skeptical about Alfredo Simon following up his breakout 2014 season with another productive performance.

Forced into the starting rotation last season with Mat Latos ailing, Simon unexpectedly went 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA during the first half of the season to earn a spot on the NL All-Star team.

However, that was followed by a second half that saw him go 3-7 with a 4.52 ERA, and with a 4.33 FIP overall, that second-half showing seemed more indicative of what to expect from the big right-hander moving forward.

Instead, he’s off to a great start in a reworked Detroit Tigers rotation that has been among the best in baseball here in the early going.

Simon will be 34 years old in May, so chances are he’s not headed for a big payday regardless, but a solid season could put him in position for a multiyear deal.

Others Whose Stocks Are Up

A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon, Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister, J.A. Happ, Aaron Harang, Brandon Morrow

Stock Down

Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners

(3 GS, 0-1, 6.61 ERA, 6.23 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 3 BB, 11 K, 16.1 IP)

After a strong showing as a 31-year-old rookie in 2012, Hisashi Iwakuma emerged as one of the best pitchers in the game in 2013, going 14-6 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.006 WHIP to finish third in AL Cy Young voting.

The right-hander was solid once again for most of last season, finishing the year 15-9 with a 3.52 ERA, but he struggled mightily down the stretch with a 7.88 ERA over his final seven starts.

Those struggles have carried over into 2015, and a less effective splitter is to blame.

Opponents hit just .184 against the pitch with a .251 slugging percentage in 2013, but those numbers have spiked to a .260 average and .438 slugging percentage over his last 10 starts, per Brooks Baseball.

Add to that a recent trip to the disabled list for a lat strain, and Iwakuma‘s stock is undoubtedly trending downward.

Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers

(4 GS, 1-3, 7.94 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 4 BB, 14 K, 22.2 IP)

With Yovani Gallardo traded to the Texas Rangers in the offseason, veteran Kyle Lohse earned the Opening Day start for the Milwaukee Brewers this season, the third time in his career he’s received that honor.

However, the enjoyment of that honor was short-lived, as the Colorado Rockies shelled the 36-year-old for 10 hits and eight earned runs in 3.1 innings of work.

His subsequent starts have not been nearly as bad, but he’d struggled nonetheless prior to allowing three hits and two runs in seven innings to pick up his first win of the season on Thursday against the Cincinnati Reds.

Lohse has quietly been one of the most consistent starters in the game in recent years, going 54-30 with a 3.28 ERA over the past four seasons and topping 180 innings each year. Given his age, though, he’ll need a great season to have any chance at a multiyear deal.

Others Whose Stocks Are Down

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Bud Norris, Jordan Zimmermann

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted, and current through Friday, April 24.

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The MLB free-agent market is running thin, which means you can count on teams to make a few desperation offers to fill out their rosters. While there are still valuable players to be had, there are also some guys who simply aren’t worth the risk.

In this list of the 10 biggest land mines left in free agency, the rankings are based on risk versus reward—in other words, which decisions have the greatest potential to blow up in a team’s face while also creating the largest explosion?

Reliever Brian Wilson, for example, is only at No. 7 because the Dodgers are paying his 2015 salary and he can be signed at the league minimum. Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada, on the other hand, is near the top of the list because of the huge investment required to sign him.

After reading these names, just don’t say I didn’t warn you.

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Forget the silly chatter of abolishing defensive shifts or the fact that James Shields is still a free agent. The biggest storyline in Major League Baseball right now is when and where Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada will sign.

The 19-year-old, switch-hitting infielder is considered to possess the kind of talent that would get him picked first overall were he eligible for Major League Baseball’s first-year player draft, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.

Instead, because he’s an amateur international free agent, Moncada’s path to the majors will be quite a bit different, but one that has been taken by a number of highly regarded foreign-born players, especially in recent years.

That got us wondering: What kind of success can be expected from big-name, big-money international free agents (IFAs) from Cuba, Japan, Korea and Taiwan?

To find out, we did a little research. (OK, a lot of research.)

First, we need a working list of players, one that goes back far enough to give us a solid sample size but not so far that it starts to become irrelevant.

Going back 10 years feels about about right, especially since that takes us to 2005, which is just after the New York Yankees brought over Cuban right-hander Jose Contreras and Japanese slugger Hideki Matsui (both in 2002) and the New York Mets signed Japanese infielder Kaz Matsui (in 2003)—three of the biggest names in their respective countries whose arrivals helped spur the movement to ink well-known international stars.

Sure, there were others before them, like Hideo Nomo, Hideki Irabu and Ichiro Suzuki from Japan, as well as Rolando Arrojo, Livan and Orlando Hernandez from Cuba. But a decade is a good starting point given the talent that since has reached the United States from Cuba, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

Besides, prior to 2005, the flow of IFAs to MLB really was more of a trickle compared to what has become a surge in recent years.

Next? We need to define the “big name” aspect, which is tricky, because that needs to be based on a player’s reputation at the time of the signing. But money often works as a measure of perceived value and/or talent in baseball, so in the interest of quantifying this, let’s set $10 million as the minimum amount.

Sure, that will leave off a few nice names, like Kendrys Morales ($3 million), Alexei Ramirez ($4 million), Nori Aoki ($2.25 million) and Hisashi Iwakuma ($1.5 million). And recent signees Roberto Baldoquin ($8 million) and Yoan Lopez ($8.27 million) also won’t be included, primarily because they’re technically in a different class as “amateur” IFAs younger than 23 years old and without five years in a professional league. But, hey, we need to cut things off at some point, right?

Besides, $10 million is a hefty enough investment where teams will at least feel it a little if the player doesn’t live up to expectations.

Here, then, are all of the “big-name” IFAs who landed deals for $10 million-plus since 2005, arranged chronologically by signing year:

As you can see, the past 10 years has brought a steadily increasing flow of IFAs to MLB. On average, almost three IFAs have netted a deal for $10 million-plus a year, dating back to 2005.

But of those 26 above, 15 of them—nearly 60 percent—have come since the start of 2012. Suddenly, IFAs have become all the rage, almost no matter the price.

But how well have these well-known, well-paid foreigners performed in the U.S.?

To figure that out, we need to define “success,” which isn’t the easiest thing to do, especially when some of the above players have signed so recently that they have yet to even reach the big leagues. That’s why we’ll start with just that—major league service time. Because these players have to actually, you know, play.

This shows that 23 of 26 IFAs have at least reached the majors. And the only three who haven’t—Raisel Iglesias, Yasmany Tomas and Jung-ho Kang—can chalk that up to signing in just last June (Iglesias) or over this offseason (Tomas and Kang), meaning they haven’t exactly had the chance to break into the bigs. 

In other words, there’s a pretty good track record of highly regarded, highly paid IFAs making it to the majors, and typically once they do, they tend to stay for a bit. To wit, of the 23 who have debuted, they have accumulated 71 individual MLB seasons—or more than three per player.

That said, there are some exceptions to that rule, like Japanese pitchers Kei Igawa and Kenshin Kawakami, as well as Alexander Guerrero and Erisbel Arruebarrena, two big Cuban misses for the Los Angeles Dodgers after they hit it out of the park with Yasiel Puig and Hyun-jin Ryu the year prior.

But success means more than just sticking in The Show—it also requires a certain level of productivity.

For this, let’s run down each player’s career wins above replacement (WAR), according to both Baseball-Reference.com (rWAR) and FanGraphs (fWAR).

Now, pay attention to the highlighted players, because here’s where we quickly remind that a per-season WAR of 2.0 is roughly the production that corresponds to a “solid starter,” per FanGraphs. North of that is equivalent to even more success.

There are 12 players highlighted in the table—almost exactly half—each of whom proved or has proved to be something close to a 2.0-WAR/season player or better. In some cases, a lot better.

Using WAR might knock relievers a bit, but it’s pretty easy to argue that, say, Koji Uehara and Aroldis Chapman have been successful, valuable performers—and, most importantly, worth their contracts—even if they come in just below the 2.0-WAR/season mark.

To that same end, players like Leonys Martin and Jorge Soler, who have yet to reach this standard officially, shouldn’t be penalized simply because we haven’t quite had enough time to judge them more. Martin only became a full-time starting player in the majors in 2013, and Soler debuted just last August. Both look like strong candidates to cover going forward at this point.

Obviously, we can’t even begin to evaluate Raisel Iglesias, Rusney Castillo, Yasmany Tomas and Jung-ho Kang, but only the middle two have especially large contracts to make good on at $72.5 million and $68.5 million, respectively.

What all this means is that MLB clubs have gotten pretty darn good at scouting and evaluating pro talent overseas—not to mention, getting them to the U.S. and acclimated to a new country, culture and level of competition.

There’s also a strong correlation between paying a premium price for IFAs and then watching them produce as above-average (and occasionally elite) major leaguers. While there are expensive busts—Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kawakami and especially Igawa come to mind—essentially, 50 percent of all these players wind up being worth it in the end.

Some might consider that a coin flip—and an expensive one—but the salaries paid out to the large majority of these IFAs have been bargain rates relative to what major leaguers of equivalent talent levels are getting on the open market.

In fact, the only pact that is on par with the going rates for MLB free agent is Masahiro Tanaka’s $155 million with the Yankees. Even the deals for Castillo and Tomas, while steep, could turn out to be good buys, if not bargains.

And remember: Almost all of these high-end IFAs have been owned during the prime years of their careers, as opposed to MLB free agents, who usually reach free agency while already in their prime or even on the downside of it. The IFA market is more about upside, which is what teams want and are willing to pay for.

So it’s understandable why so many clubs are now going this route—and why the prices are picking up.

That’s good news, because even though Moncada is the biggest name out there on the IFA market at the moment, he’s not alone.

Fellow Cuban infielders Hector Olivera and Andy Ibanez also are free agents who could sign soon, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, who estimates that Moncada could require a total investment (signing bonus plus a dollar-for-dollar tax on the overage) of upward of $80 million.

And there’s a good chance that Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda could be posted next winter after it nearly happened this offseason. More names pop up on this front every year, too.

While international free agents, like Moncada and others, carry with them an inherent risk and many unknowns, it’s clear that MLB teams willing to pay up—in excess of $10 million—when a particular IFA is worth it have received a rather rewarding return, especially in recent years.

If anything, Moncada’s price just went up.

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In less than three weeks, pitchers and catchers will begin reporting to spring training facilities across Florida and Arizona to prepare for the start of the 2015 Major League Baseball season.

There’s at least a chance that James Shields won’t be among them.

Shields, one of the top free agents when this offseason started about three months ago now, has yet to find a new team and thus potentially could be without a home when the first teams officially open up shop Feb. 18.

At this stage, with the beginning of baseball hurtling ever faster—heck, the Super Bowl has come and gone—it’s pretty evident that Shields’ approach this winter hasn’t worked. And the biggest reason why appears to be that the right-hander and his representation have overestimated his worth—and not by a small margin, either, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports:

Remaining on the open market this long likely was not part of the plan. In fact, there were reports in early January that Shields had an offer worth north of $100 million from a team but that said team was one for whom he didn’t want to pitch, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

So Shields could have been signed, sealed and delivered a few weeks ago, readying to report to spring training with his new club. At least, in theory.

In reality, Shields’ situation has played out exactly the opposite.

There are two very big problems for Shields right now. One, time is running out on him, and so is the money. There are only so many days—and so many dollars—left now that reporting dates are getting nearer, and most teams already have made their major moves and started planning out their 2015 payrolls and budgets.

On top of that, the team that eventually signs Shields, who rejected the Kansas City Royals’ qualifying offer, will lose a draft pick in June. That’s not something that’s easy to give up at this point, only four months out from the draft, especially if it’s a first-round choice.

And two? There are still alternative arms that could be acquired via trade, from Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies or perhaps Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds or even one of the Washington Nationals’ studs, Jordan Zimmermann or Stephen Strasburg.

In other words, Shields is the best pitcher available by far in free agency, but he’s not necessarily the best pitcher available—period.

Shields clearly missed his chance at leveraging his value while it was at its highest point earlier in the winter, as Buster Olney of ESPN writes:

With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, it’s apparent that James Shields reached the zenith of his negotiation leverage on the night of Dec. 9. That was the night when Jon Lester finalized his decision to go to the Chicago Cubs, and the San Francisco Giants and other teams faced the reality that they needed a Plan B.

Shields was in a good spot in that moment, it seemed, because unlike Cole Hamesl, he wouldn’t require a trade investment of prospects, and unlike Max Scherzer, he wouldn’t require the equivalent of a Defense Department budget to sign. Whatever cards Shields held at that time were probably the best he has seen all winter.

But that leverage is now gone, and Shields is in the worst possible spot of any free agent, when most teams are finished spending for the winter and more readily identify reasons to dismiss an available player. In Shields’ case, the loudest concerns are about his age (33), his heavy workloads (eight straight seasons of 203 or more innings pitched), his need for a ballpark that forgives his tendency to surrender fly balls to left-center field; his home games have been in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field and Kauffmann Stadium.

Now, despite all of that, Shields still is a proven, consistent and very durable starter who fits best as a No. 2 but can pitch at the top of a rotation if needed. He’s also capable of being an impact addition, the kind who could turn a good team into a great one or a borderline contender into a no-doubt one.

And being the best—and last—readily available option on the open market can be a good thing, provided there is an actual market. That’s where Shields’ reps at PSI Sports Management have to come into play to build some leverage and get multiple teams—even if it’s only two—invested in the idea of how the righty can help them in 2015 and beyond.

That, however, could be part of the problem. According to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe: “One prominent baseball official feels Shields has been miscast and not marketed and/or positioned well by his agent, Page Odle. Shields is a super pitcher, but the notion that he’s a bad postseason pitcher seems to have overwhelmed his total body of work.”

And yet there plenty of teams are being mentioned as potential Shields suitors—at a reduced price, of course—including the Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays, among others, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

If Shields’ market doesn’t advance, though, or if some starter on a contender doesn’t blow out an elbow early in spring training, then Shields’ tough spot will only get tougher.

While some free agents who have lingered on the market too long in recent years (think: Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales last year) were willing to take a one-year, below-market contract and hit the market again a year later, that wouldn‘t be such an easy path for Shields.

Not only will Shields once again be extended a qualifying offer if he performs like his usual self, but he’ll also be a year older. And the chances that some club is going to give a four- or five-year contract to a pitcher entering his age-34 campaign will be dramatically reduced.

After all, the history of starting pitchers getting big money at age 32 or older isn’t exactly promising.

The most recent contract handed out to such a starter was Mark Buehrle’s four-year, $58 million pact with the Miami Marlins in December of 2011, as Rosenthal points out.

“Buehrle entered the market with an even greater number of innings pitched than Shields has now, but he also boasted a better adjusted ERA,” Rosenthal writes. “Executives cite not only Shields’ age as a negative, but also his backlog of innings, declining strikeout rate and spotty postseason performance.”

The way this has played out so far has been rather unexpected given Shields’ abilities and placement as a top free agent at the outset of the offseason.

It’s also been rather unfortunate for Shields, who will wind up signing somewhere, but almost certainly not for the amount of money he had been hoping initially.

The questions now are: How much less money? And how much more time?

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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