Tag: MLB Free Agency

Updating the Hottest Questions of the 2014-2015 MLB Offseason, Week 4

Major League Baseball’s offseason is barely a month old, and already there are all sorts of rumors and speculation—and questions—around a number of free agents and trade candidates, as well as teams’ objectives and plans of attack.

Some of the latest center on the fallout from the Boston Red Sox’s spending spree, the possibility of Jon Lester being the first big-name pitcher to change teams and the impact of Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Having hit on a number of topics last time, what better way to continue taking the temperature of the hot stove than by running through a batch of the hottest questions to cover the latest potential transaction action across the sport?

See, that’s a question in and of itself, although the five to follow are a bit more meaningful. Promise.

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Assessing Likelihood the Yankees Sign Top 3 Remaining Free-Agent Targets

It is Thanksgiving, which means the holiday season is in full swing.

With Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez both going to Boston and a few other free agents already signed, it is clear that baseball’s offseason is well underway as well. Rumors are swirling and whispers are making their way across the league about which teams are after certain players.

However, one team has been unusually quiet: the New York Yankees.

It has been two seasons since the Yanks made the playoffs, and their roster is in serious need of some help, so you know that New York is bound to have an eventful winter. The question is, who are they going to get and when?

Keeping in mind that there is still plenty of time left in the baseball offseason, take a look at how likely it is the Yankees land a few guys they could really use.

 

 

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Has Wild MLB Spending Actually Made International Free Agents a Bargain?

Major League Baseball’s offseason isn’t yet a month old, and teams have already spent upward of $400 million combined in free agency, a majority of which came from the Boston Red Sox’s same-day splurge on top position players Hanley Ramirez ($88 million for four years) and Pablo Sandoval ($95 million over five).

For context, the free-agent spending last winter, according to ESPN, checked in at a whopping total $1,861,775,000—that’s nearly two billion—an increase from the $1,335,525,000 burned the year prior.

That’s more than a $500 million jump, if you’re counting along at home with your abacus.

This is only counting dollars spent in free agency, an increasingly expensive nexus where the ever-growing demand continues to reign over the always-shrinking supply. 

In part, this is the case because baseball’s finances are exploding thanks to massive national and regional television deals, thus pumping more money into the mix. At the same time, teams are locking up their own young players with long-term extensions more often, thus diluting the pool of players available in free agency every year.

That’s how someone like Russell Martin, a fine all-around player with a skill set that includes above-average defense and on-base ability on offense—but more importantly, the lone definitive starting catcher available on the open market this offseason—can score a five-year, $82 million contract despite entering his age-32 season a year removed from hitting .211.

“There aren’t as many quality, younger free agents out there,” an unnamed baseball executive said in early November, via Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. “Teams are keeping their guys, signing them to extensions. The numbers to choose from are less and less, so free agency is not always the answer.”

Broadening the scope to include extensions, it’s also how a superstar like Giancarlo Stanton, in the prime of his career at age 25, can find himself signing a record-setting, 13-year, $325 million pact with a Miami Marlins team that ranked dead last in team payroll in 2014.

Or how Kyle Seager, the very good but little-known Seattle Mariners third baseman, can put his John Hancock on an extension that will pay him $100 million over the next seven years. Ask the casual baseball fan if Seager is worth a nine-figure contract, and the answer is liable to be: “Kyle who?”

All of which should make it pretty obvious that the international free-agent market remains one of the few areas (along with the draft) where teams can find not only good values, but in many cases, actual bargains.

Take a look at these “big-money” deals (at least $30 million in total value) signed by international free agents who have made it to MLB over the past five years:

That reads like an all-star team, doesn’t it? And given the price tags attached to them, these signings look well worth it in most, if not all, cases.

No wonder clubs are willing to throw money at highly regarded foreign players before they have played even a single inning in America. In fact, these expenditures are less costly than those for actual, proven MLB free agents because these players are untested in the majors.

On Nov. 26, that final name, Yasmany Tomas, was added to the above list. The slugging Cuban outfielder agreed to a six-year, $68.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.

Yes, that’s a lot of money, and it could backfire if Tomas doesn’t live up to the hype and expectations. But if he does—which is to say, if he performs like most of his recent fellow Cuban predecessors—that has the potential to be yet another steal. At least, relative to the dollars being dished out in non-international free agency.

OK, so the $155 million the New York Yankees paid to pick up Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka last January can’t exactly be called a bargain. Then again, the right-hander was available at the age of 25 and did look like one of the very best pitchers in baseball over the first half of his rookie season before an elbow injury sidelined him.

At some point—and soon—even the international market no longer will offer good values, in large part because so many of the players to come from Cuba (Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes), Japan (Tanaka, Yu Darvish) and Korea (Hyun-Jin Ryu) in recent years have had immediate impacts and significant success in the majors.

There will come a time when an MLB club will splurge on a supposed-to-be star from a foreign land who disappoints or perhaps doesn’t even reach The Show, and some teams will get wallet-shy as a result.

Maybe that could happen with Tomas. Or perhaps it will be the case for one or both of the other two possible international free agents who are generating a lot of buzz right now: 19-year-old Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada and Kenta Maeda, the 26-year-old Japanese right-hander.

But judging by the recent track record of these players, it’s more likely that this market will get pushed into a territory close to the current MLB free-agent market, where $100 million deals are commonplace and bargains are few and far between.

That wouldn’t be a bad thing for the business of baseball, because big-time players would be getting paid big-time money, no matter where they’re born or where they played professionally before coming to MLB.

But just imagine how much harder it will be for all 30 teams to shop in, let alone find, the “bargain bin” then.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Sleeper MLB Teams That Could Surprise with Huge Splash This Winter

By now, every MLB fan knows that the Boston Red Sox are going for broke. And we all know that the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants have been linked in some way to just about every big name on the open market.

What about teams that may not have pockets quite as deep? What about those clubs best described as sleepers when put into the context of being big players on the free-agent market?

Well, let’s take a look at three such franchises.

To be clear, we will stay away from clubs like the Chicago White Sox. They have already signed two of the top 31 free agents based on fWAR (FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement) in the form of Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke. It’s safe to say they’ve already made a splash.

We’ll also steer clear of teams like the Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees. They are expected to make multiple moves this offseason and have significant financial resources.

And for those of you wondering about the Arizona Diamondbacks, well, you can forget about them being included. After all, they just inked Yasmany Tomas to a six-year, $68.5 million deal, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. True, general manager Dave Stewart likely isn’t finished, but that splash is about as big as they come.

Here are three MLB sleeper teams presented in alphabetical order that could surprise everyone and make a huge splash this winter.

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MLB Free Agents 2014: Latest Rumors, Predictions for Key Stars

Key players have already signed new contracts this winter, setting the standard for how the rest of the offseason is going to unfold.

MLB free agency, much like any other sport’s free agency, is driven heavily by the depth of the market. Competition for stars will drive their prices up, as will how many other options there are at each position in free agency. That’s why you see guys like Russell Martin, a good (but not great) catcher, getting a contract worth $82 million.

Given how early the offseason is, there are still plenty of players left looking for a big contract. There will inevitably be competition for the top players’ services. How far will their prices be driven up?

Read below to see the latest rumors and predictions for which teams will win the bidding wars on a few key stars.

 

Jon Lester

Every team in the bigs could use Jon Lester. Even the World Series champions could benefit from adding him to their staff, and Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets that the team has shown interest:

Adding Lester to a rotation already including Madison Bumgarner, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain and possibly Tim Lincecum would again make the Giants favorites in the National League. The lefty will be 31 in January and is coming off arguably his best season in the league.

He posted a 2.46 ERA (2.80 FIP) and a ERA- of 63—well above the league average of 100, via FanGraphs. Lester pitched well in the offensively potent American League East and American League West, meaning a move to the offensively inept National League West could make him even better.

The competition for Lester is fierce. The Boston Red Sox still can’t be ruled out despite their recent spending spree, while the Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves and possibly even the New York Yankees can make a play for the ace.

The Yankees have been reluctant to spend at this point, but Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe described the team’s strategy when going after top talents: “[Brian] Cashman is one of the best at not showing his hand. He will downplay every possible move the Yankees should or could make, and when it comes down to doing it, the Yankees pounce swiftly.”

That makes the Bombers a true threat.

It’s really a toss-up as to where Lester will play in 2015 and beyond. Any number of teams are equipped to take on his impending salary. This is truly a situation where a dark-horse team could emerge, but it’s tough to not go with a team with a track record of spending big-time dollars on big-time players.

Prediction: Yankees

 

Melky Cabrera

It’s surprising to think that Melky Cabrera is one of the more underrated players available this winter. He has bounced around a lot in his past four seasons, but that shouldn’t change the view of the type of player he is.

The Baltimore Orioles are in need of a right fielder. That could still be Nick Markakis, who is a free agent, but MASN’s Roch Kubatko reports that Cabrera is the Plan B: “I’ve heard from multiple people that he’s a ‘fallback option’ for the Orioles if they can’t re-sign Nick Markakis.”

Baltimore’s interest in Cabrera is likely as an on-base type of player, as the Orioles have struggled to get on base at a consistent clip in recent years—something not conducive to scoring a ton of runs for a team with immense power.

Kubatko notes that their past five OBPs have been .316, .316, .311, .313 and .311. Cabrera can help out in that regard.

Any number of teams should be in on the 30-year-old switch-hitter. His old team, the Toronto Blue Jays, could be maxed out after signing Russell Martin, so that presumably knocks them out of the hunt.

Cabrera is the type of player who could help a lot of teams, making his destination a bit of a question mark. Being a “fallback option” in Baltimore doesn’t exactly scream confidence in a deal working out between the two sides.

It’ll be a dark-horse team that scoops him up—one with major questions in the outfield.

Prediction: Chicago White Sox

 

Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter is lobbying for what will likely be the final contract of his career. The 39-year-old outfielder can still play ball, and the Minnesota Twins are looking to get him back in the Twin Cities to end his career, reports Darren Wolfson of KSTP.com:

LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune echoed Wolfson:

Hunter began his career in Minnesota and played there from 1997 to 2007. He was a fan favorite because of his stellar defense and timely power, so a reunion would certainly reignite the fans. 

Wolfson and Neal aren’t the only ones who have spoken about a reunion. Hunter himself told Charley Walters of TwinCities.com that he would like to come back to where it all started:

(Twins general manager) Terry Ryan and I have talked several times, and there’s definitely a common interest there, for sure.

I would come over to win. All that stuff everybody talks about, ‘a great guy in the clubhouse,’ that’s extra — that’s not No. 1. The No. 1 thing is look at my numbers. They’re still the same, one of the most consistent hitters in baseball over my career.

Hunter probably doesn’t have more than two years left in the tank, even if he has been the staple of consistency since he left the Twins prior to the 2008 season. Regardless, his connection with new manager Paul Molitor will play a big role in making something happen.

A respected veteran at the tail end of his career, Hunter would make a ton of people happy by returning.

Prediction: Twins

 

Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn

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Predicting MLB’s Next Big Dominoes to Fall After Wild Offseason Week

The market for free-agent hitters thinned out quickly Monday when the Boston Red Sox reportedly agreed to sign Pablo Sandoval, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, as well as Hanley Ramirez, according to Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.

With arguably the two best remaining free-agent bats now off the board, we should begin to see the market for secondary players—the guys who aren’t looking at a potential nine-figure payday—take shape.

It can be argued that some teams might have seen the Ramirez and Sandoval signings coming and decided to get ahead of the market. For example, the A’s snatched up Billy Butler last week for three years and $30 million, while the White Sox signed left-handed slugger Adam LaRoche to a two-year, $25 million pact.

There’s still an intriguing crop of hitters available on the market, but with the winter meetings on the horizon, that might not be the case for much longer.

The market for pitching is a much different story, as class headliners Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields are all waiting on each other to sign and establish a market rate for an ace. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the top relievers come off the board in the near future.

With all that said, here’s a look at free agents who could be the next to sign.

 

Chase Headley, 3B

Teams that missed out on Sandoval—including the Giants—and those that might have viewed Hanley Ramirez as an option at third base will now shift their attention to Chase Headley, the obvious beneficiary of Monday’s signings.

Headley has never been considered a potential near-$100 million free agent, but any team that signs him will be getting one of the more well-rounded players on the market.

By now, we all know that Headley isn’t going to be the guy that hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs and 115 RBI with the Padres in 2012. Over the last two seasons, he’s batted .246/.338/.387 with 26 home runs and 99 RBI.

However, Headley’s career .347 on-base percentage and 10.3 percent walk rate highlight his ability to reach base at a favorable clip, and he still proved to be a slightly above-average player (103 wRC+) last season despite posting career worsts with a .243 batting average and .700 OPS.

Beyond that, FanGraphs recognized Headley as the top defensive third baseman in baseball last season, giving him the highest overall rating (22.8) thanks to an MLB-best 20.9 ultimate zone rating (UZR). More importantly, Headley also ranks first in both categories since the start of the 2012 season, with a 41.6 Def and 35.2 UZR.

One drawback with Headley is he’s entering his age-31 season and has seen his share of injuries in recent years. Specifically, thumb and back injuries limited him to 141 games in 2013, while leg and back issues resulted in 135 games played in 2014. At the same time, the fact that he played 161 games in both 2010 and 2012 could help ease some of the concerns regarding his durability.

As of now, there’s a relatively short list of teams reportedly in the market for Headley, but that’s sure to change in the wake of Sandoval’s signing. The Yankees are said to be interested in bringing him back next season, and the two sides have already had begun a dialogue, reports Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com:

According to the source, a baseball executive who requested anonymity because he is not involved in the negotiations, doubts among the Yankees’ “baseball people” about the ability of [Alex] Rodriguez — who will not have played in a major league game in more than 18 months and will turn 40 on July 27 — to play third base regularly next season have made signing Headley a priority this winter.

Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports believes the Giants are “likely” to pursue Headley after failing to re-sign Sandoval.

Even if it’s just a bidding war between the Yankees and Giants, there’s reason to believe Headley is going to sign sooner rather than later.

 

 

Andrew Miller, LHP

Andrew Miller, 29, was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2014, posting a 2.02 ERA, 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.5 walks per nine while appearing in 73 games for the Red Sox and Orioles.

Now, he’s looking to get paid like one of the best relievers in baseball.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported on Nov. 13 that 22 teams had contacted Miller. Now, Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports hears that Miller has multiple three-year offers on the table.

According to a report from Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com (h/t MLB Trade Rumors‘ Steve Adams), Miller is looking for nothing less than a four-year contract that has “astounding” average annual value. For what it’s worth, Morosi believes that multiple teams extending Miller three-year offers means he’ll likely to end up signing a four-year pact.

Normally, giving a deal of that length to a non-closer can be risky, especially one coming off a career-best season like Miller, where subsequent regression seems inevitable. But as David Schoenfield of ESPN.com writes, the market price for a reliable late-inning arms isn’t getting any cheaper, meaning Miller, entering his age-30 season, could be well worth the investment:

Miller doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear on his arm, so a three- or four-year contract should lock up his prime years. For those who don’t think teams should spend big money on a bullpen, just look at your 2014 World Series winners. The Giants had a veteran bullpen with Santiago CasillaSergio RomoJeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez all making at least $4 million. The days of relying solely on a bargain-basement-priced bullpen might be over.

As for the market, Zach Duke has been the only notable left-hander to sign this offseason, inking a three-year, $15 million contract with the Chicago White Sox. And once Miller comes off the board, there won’t be many viable options:

However, Miller isn’t your ordinary left-handed reliever; his dominance against both right- and left-handed hitters makes him a hot commodity, and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick previously heard that some teams are considering him as a closer.

“I think Andrew’s evolution in the bullpen and his numbers this year fortify the belief in baseball that he’s a closer-in-waiting—and maybe the time for waiting is over,” Mark Rodgers, Miller’s agent, said via Crasnick.

Miller’s price tag will be steep, but the fact that he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, thanks to a midseason trade to Boston, means he’ll likely have a variety of potential suitors, and I’d expect all those clubs to make him favorable offers.

  

Colby Rasmus, OF

Colby Rasmus enjoyed arguably the best season of his career in 2013, batting .276/.338/.501 with 22 home runs and 26 doubles in 458 plate appearances. His two other full seasons with the Blue Jays have been a much different story, a story featuring .225-or-worse batting averages, sub-.290 on-base percentages and worsening strikeout rates.

“Last year at the end of the season I definitely didn’t think I’d be in this position right now,” Rasmus said via John Lott of the National Post. “I thought things were looking up and I definitely was excited and didn’t see it going this way. But it is what it is. Baseball’s a crazy game, and it just didn’t work out for me.”

However, there’s reason to believe the 28-year-old Rasmus might still have some good seasons ahead of him. The left-handed hitter should continue to offer his usual above-average power in the coming years, as he’s an extreme fly-ball hitter who drives the ball to all fields with authority.

The only potential impediment to Rasmus’ power output is his health, as he’s spent time on the disabled list in three of the last four seasons.

Lastly, the center fielder’s defense is bound to improve compared to his subpar showing in 2014.

It’s difficult to predict how the market will treat Rasmus, arguably the top reclamation project in this year’s free-agent class, but there’s definitely going to be a market, and soon.

Rasmus isn’t in the same tier as Melky Cabrera or Nick Markakis, obviously, but there’s still something to be said for a younger player capable of hitting 20 home runs and holding down center field. While he doesn’t benefit from a positional standpoint with the Ramirez and Sandoval signings, Rasmus’ stock does receive a slight boost given the lack of remaining power hitters on the market.

While some teams might offer him a cheap multiyear deal, Rasmus’ age and untapped potential make him a strong candidate to sign a one-year contract, hoping that a bounce-back performance nets him a big payday next offseason.

For what it’s worth, Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors believes Rasmus will sign a one-year deal worth $12 million but “would not be surprised if he ultimately scores a three-year pact.”

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


3 Potential Offseason Moves the Dodgers Missed out On

The Los Angeles Dodgers front office has begun wheeling and dealing this offseason, acquiring low-cost pitching help over the past two weeks.

New President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman went the familiar route with his first move, trading for former Tampa Bay Rays reliever Joel Peralta and Rays minor league left-hander Adam Liberatore.

Los Angeles then announced it had acquired pitchers Mike Bolsinger from the Arizona Diamondbacks and Juan Nicasio from the Colorado Rockies in low-risk deals. The hope with these trades is that by removing the aforementioned hurlers from hitter-friendly parks in Phoenix and Denver, respectively, perhaps they will be able to find more success pitching in spacious Dodger Stadium.

There have also been a few moves that the Dodgers could have made but didn’t.

 

Andrew Bailey

Relief pitching was the Dodgers’ biggest weakness last season, and the team had an opportunity to buy low on a bullpen arm who was dominant enough to win Rookie of the Year as recently as 2009. Not only was Andrew Bailey the American League‘s best rookie five years ago, but the right-hander has also been a two-time All-Star.

The New York Yankees inked the 30-year-old Bailey to a minor league contract earlier this month, realizing that he has the potential to be a dominant pitcher when healthy. Bailey posted a 2.07 ERA over 174 innings between 2009-2011 but has undergone two surgeries since then and hasn’t pitched in the majors since July 2013.

Although injuries will now always be a concern with Bailey, the Dodgers could have taken a flier on the reliever to help shore up their mediocre bullpen. He probably would have come at a very affordable price, too.

 

Zach Duke

Zach Duke is another quality relief pitcher that Los Angeles decided against signing. Instead, the White Sox acquired the left-hander’s services when he accepted their three-year, $15 million offer, per Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com.

Duke turned in the best season of his career in 2014 with the Milwaukee Brewers, compiling a 2.45 ERA in just over 58 innings of work. His 74 strikeouts were nearly double the amount he recorded during the previous three seasons combined.

The Dodgers could use all the bullpen help they can get at this point, and they may have been able to nab Duke for less than what the White Sox paid simply because they are positioned to win now while Chicago is rebuilding.

Duke, who limited opposing hitters to a .223 average last season, would have made a nice left-handed addition to the Dodgers bullpen to complement J.P. Howell.

 

Russell Martin

The argument could be made that Los Angeles needs an upgrade at catcher after A.J. Ellis mustered a measly .191/.323/.254 slash at the plate last season.

One of the biggest names on the free-agent market was Russell Martin, but the Dodgers were not prepared to take the financial plunge necessary to bring the backstop back to Los Angeles.

Instead, Martin followed the money home to Toronto, where the Blue Jays welcomed him with a five-year, $82 million contract, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick and The Associated Press.

Martin’s 5.5 wins above replacement (WAR) with Pittsburgh in 2014 were the most among all projected free-agent position players. He also led major league catchers by throwing out 37 base stealers a season ago, and his caught stealing percentage of 38.5 was much higher than Ellis’ 25 percent.

The Dodgers’ new front office has shown a commitment to cost-saving strategies so far this offseason, so signing Martin was almost completely out of the question because of the type of contract that the catcher and his agent were demanding.

 

All statistics courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise linked/noted.


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MLB Free Agents 2014: Rumors, Predictions for Top Names on the Market

There’s always that dark-horse team that gets in the way of your MLB free agency predictions.

Don’t worry; it happens to everybody.

But staying informed on the hottest free-agent rumors makes it easier to decipher which teams will be players for which free agents. Of course, you’ll always have those situations like when the Seattle Mariners shocked the entire universe and outbid the New York Yankees for Robinson Cano.

But that doesn’t happen often.

The next month or so is crucial for the outlook of the MLB offseason. Winter meetings will be upon us in a few weeks, and that’s usually when the first of the big deals go down.

Read on to find out which big names could find new homes in the near future, as well as predictions for where those homes will be.

 

David Robertson

David Robertson stepped up to the challenge of replacing Mariano Rivera last season, saving 39 of 44 games for the New York Yankees. That doesn’t mean he’s a lock to return, though, as he rejected the team’s qualifying offer and is seeking a lucrative contract.

Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports that there’s at least one team out there ready to talk turkey with the 29-year-old: “The Astros have communicated with Robertson’s agent Scott Leventhal to express their interest in the Yankees’ closer, an industry source said.”

Houston’s bullpen prevented the team from reaching .500 last season, making Robertson a logical fit for the organization. Davidoff writes, “Their relievers tallied a woeful 4.80 ERA, and they converted just 54.39 percent (31-for-57) of their save opportunities, worst in the AL.”

If there’s one team on the market desperate for late-inning help, it’s Houston. It has a problem.

Of course, it’s truly impossible to rule out the Yankees. Uncertainties surrounded the closer role prior to last year, and Robertson stepped up. Does the team want to go with a first-time closer yet again in 2015? It’d likely be Dellin Betances tasked with shutting the door. He might not be the most reliable option.

The question for the Yankees comes down to just how highly they value Robertson—not as a member of the organization, but as a piece toward building a larger puzzle. ESPN’s David Schoenfield broke down how Robertson stacked up to other relievers in 2014:

Robertson is coming off a 3.08 ERA — that’s nothing special these days for a reliever. Sixty-nine relievers who threw at least 50 innings had a lower ERA in 2014. He saved 39 games in 44 opportunities. That’s a save percentage of 88.6. Sounds good, but again, it’s nothing special; 13 closers with at least 20 opportunities had a higher percentage in 2014. Robertson also allowed seven home runs in 2014, six to right-handed batters.

Does that sound like a pitcher deserving of a contract in the ballpark of $50 million?

The Astros’ desperation makes them more likely to pay the type of money Robertson seeks. The Yanks will make a push, but there are other arms in the organization capable of taking over, ultimately ending their pursuit.

Prediction: Astros

 

Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval is widely considered to be the offensive crown jewel of the offseason, making his list of suitors quite a lengthy one. It seems as if he’s already done some deliberating, however, as ESPN reports that he is nearing a decision:

Free-agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval is expected to make a decision about his baseball future this week, according to his brother and co-agent.

Michael Sandoval did not specify which teams are in the running, but he told ESPNBoston.com’s Gordon Edes on Saturday that Pablo Sandoval has received contract offers from all of the teams under consideration and will take the weekend to weigh his options.

Multiple teams have been linked heavily to the 28-year-old. The Boston Red Sox are known to have major interest, as are the San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres, notes ESPN.

Sandoval is a hero in the Bay Area, so it would be a shock to see him move on. He was a catalyst for the Giants in the World Series, recording 12 hits and almost single-handedly keeping his team from allowing the Kansas City Royals to build significant momentum. He has won three rings in his seven-year career.

Of course, it would be hard for the third baseman to turn down a lucrative offer from another team. His agent would be wise to convince him to take the money, as questions surrounding his weight will surely inhibit him from making money the next time he hits the open market.

A player on the wrong side of 30 with his build (5’11”, 245 pounds) certainly won’t make top dollar. Now he can.

CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweeted that the Sox had inked Sandoval, but his agent, Gustavo Vasquez, denied reports, via Alex Speier of 93.7 WEEI: “We have offers, [but] no deal.”

Something’s cooking, however, and it appears imminent that Sandoval will join Boston.

Prediction: Red Sox

 

Jon Lester

Jon Lester more than likely won’t return to the Oakland Athletics, meaning he’s gearing up to change addresses this winter for the second time since July. Where he’ll go is anybody’s guess, and Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that “at least six [teams] are interested.”

That doesn’t count the Yankees, though, and Rosenthal makes a point to say that the Yankees’ stance on Lester could change in an instant given their propensity to quickly decide whether or not they want to outbid other teams for a top star.

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe described the team’s strategy when courting players: “[Brian] Cashman is one of the best at not showing his hand. He will downplay every possible move the Yankees should or could make, and when it comes down to doing it, the Yankees pounce swiftly.”

Cashman is well aware of the holes his team has, and it’s probably overwhelming to figure out which hole to fill first. The Yankees have a ton of pitching, but Cashman is admittedly concerned with the health of his staff, via Cafardo: “I think we have good pitching, but there’s obviously some volatility in it because of the health status and health histories of some of them.”

Will that lead the Bombers to Lester?

Cashman did admit that “ownership has always been very beneficial with the resources to put the team on the field,” so he certainly can’t rule out a big-ticket acquisition.

The Yankees’ insistence on not dishing out big contracts to aging players has preoccupied much of their thinking. CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez haven’t panned out particularly well in recent memory.

But look what happened when the team had them all going strong early in their deals in 2009. The Yankees won the World Series.

Winning the Fall Classic is worth suffering through a few tough years when the contracts are close to expiring. If Cashman wants to truly improve his team, then he’ll go hard after Lester in hopes of recapturing the same magic he had prior to the team’s last championship.

Given the resources at his disposal, Cashman can make it happen.

Prediction: Yankees

 

Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn

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The Detroit Tigers’ Best Free-Agency Backup Plans If They Miss on Top Targets

The Detroit Tigers have had a productive offseason to this point. Their biggest priority, Victor Martinez, was promptly inked for another four years, and signings/trades have also yielded Joakim Soria, Alex Avila, Anthony Gose, Joel Hanrahan and Josh Zeid.

Not bad for seven weeks’ work.

Assembling Detroit’s squad won’t stop there. Despite answering questions regarding designated hitter, catcher and, to a degree, center field, one glaring blemish still remains: the bullpen.

Speaking recently to Matt Dery on Detroit Sports 105.1 radio, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports believes it is essential that Detroit continues upgrading its relief stocks: “This (signing Hanrahan) can’t be the end of their bullpen spending. You cannot allow the bullpen to be your downfall for the third straight year.”

But with considerable cash already spent, what can we expect from team president/general manager Dave Dombrowski? His recent words suggest continued investment but of a more subtle nature, per Chris Iott of MLive: “I’m not saying we’re done, but sometimes they’re not the big splashy ones. They don’t have to be big dollars and big splashes.”

Detroit is particularly thin at left-handed relief. Andrew Miller is by far the best lefty available and arguably the best reliever overall on the market. Tigers fans would be tickled pink if their former first-round pick once again donned the home blue and whites; however, Dombrowski’s words seem to imply that Miller is not on the team’s radar.

There are still plenty of other fish in the sea that Detroit may wish to cast a line at if, indeed, Miller is beyond its ambitions.

We cannot forget that there are also internal options. Blaine Hardy was good last season until his performances dropped off late in the year. Ian Krol had an excellent start to the season (2.33 ERA in April-May), but he was awful after that. Kyle Ryan, whom manager Brad Ausmus turned to a few times out of the bullpen in September, is another alternative.

But if the Tigers do decide to look externally, these are the best candidates…

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Analyzing Yasmany Tomas’ Potential Impact on Each Top MLB Suitor

The sweepstakes for Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas is down to four teams, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, with the Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants all in the mix.

However, the last week has seen the Braves and Padres rise to the top and become front-runners to sign Tomas, and both clubs are now sending their top officials to meet with the 24-year-old in the Dominican Republic this weekend.

Unfortunately, it might be a few more weeks until either team can claim an offseason victory, as Tomas is “mulling a number of contract offers” and also considering attending next week’s winter meetings in San Diego, per Austin Laymance of MLB.com.

Until then, here’s a look at how signing Tomas might impact his top suitors.

 

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants are viewed as one of the top suitors for Tomas, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required). On Thursday, Giants assistant general manager Bobby Evans confirmed to KNBR radio (via a tweet from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle) that the team is “very interested” in Tomas.

However, the Giants’ ability to sign Tomas is tied to free-agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval’s status. He’s currently listening to contract offers for upward of $100 million from multiple teams, including the Giants.

For what it’s worth, Evans sincerely believes the Giants are still in the mix to re-sign the three-time World Series champion. More on that from Schulman:

Evans spoke to Sandoval’s agent this morning. Contrary to the notion that Sandoval has no interest in returning to San Francisco, put forth in a report by KPIX on Wednesday, Evans said, ‘We’ve got every indication that we’re right in the middle of it.’

Evans said he understands that money and years will play the dominant role in Sandoval’s ultimate decision, but he still feels the Panda’s ties to San Francisco will play a role. ‘I think the interest is sincere,’ Evans said. ‘I think Pablo loves this fanbase as much as any player loves a fanbase, and that could go a long way.

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Evans remained tight-lipped during the aforementioned radio interview when asked whether the Giants could afford to sign both Tomas and Sandoval.

The Giants lack viable internal options at third base and left field, and should they fail to re-sign Sandoval as well as free-agent Michael Morse—who hit 16 home runs last season on a one-year deal with the Giants—then it’d make sense to go all-in and meet Tomas’ lofty asking price.

“Power is the calling card for Tomas, a strong man with big lift in his swing,” writes Badler. “It’s 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, with a chance to hit 25-plus home runs over a full season, possibly more depending on contact frequency in game situations.”

Some evaluators, such as Badler, believe Tomas might be better off with a few months at the Triple-A level. However it’s safe to assume that if the Giants ultimately sign Tomas, they’ll expect him to make the jump directly to the major leagues and supplant Morse and Sandoval’s power in the heart of the lineup.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been linked to Tomas for what feels like an eternity, and up until this week they were widely considered the front-runners to sign him.

Back on Nov. 5, Heyman wrote:

The Phillies are said by people in the know to be ‘all over’ Tomas, the outfielder/third baseman who has been holding private workouts in the Dominican Republic in recent days after a widely attended September showcase that is said to have drawn all 30 MLB teams.

However, recent reports suggest Philadelphia’s interest level has waned in the last few weeks, and the team might be ready to completely drop out of the sweepstakes for Tomas.

Per Paul Hagen of MLB.com:

The Phillies, once considered favorites to land free-agent outfielder Yasmany Tomas, have cooled on the idea of signing the 24-year-old Cuban defector, according to Major League sources.

While the Phils, who had a private workout with Tomas, still like his bat, there are concerns about his defense. They now view him as more of a designated hitter-type player, the sources added.

Of course, that thinking could change if the price for Tomas, once estimated to be as high as $100 million, begins to come down. The Phillies are trying to trade right fielder Marlon Byrd with an eye toward moving Domonic Brown from left to right. That would mean they would need to fill the vacancy in left internally (Grady Sizemore, Darin Ruf, Aaron Altherr) or from outside the organization.

I still view Tomas as a good fit for the Phillies given his age, raw power and overall potential, and in theory he’d give the team something to build around moving forward should they trade Hamels and launch a long-overdue rebuilding process. Plus, signing Tomas to play either right or left field would allow the Phillies to explore trades for Marlon Byrd and/or Domonic Brown.

Therefore, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Hagen’s latest report is nothing more than the Phillies attempting to soften a suddenly aggressive market for Tomas. And for what it’s worth, there was still one MLB executive that, as of Thursday, saw the Phillies as the the easy favorites to land Tomas this offseason, per a tweet from ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.

 

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is the latest team to enter the sweepstakes for Tomas, according MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, and they’re quickly emerging as one of the favorites.

Meanwhile, Heyman also hears the Braves are interested in Tomas, noting the team is set to see him in a private workout:

The Braves could qualify as a surprise team, but they recently made room in the outfield by trading Jason Heyward. They also have been in trade talks involving outfielders Justin Upton and Evan Gattis, but new Braves president of baseball operations John Hart has long loved power hitters, as folks may recall from his Cleveland and Texas days.

Whether the Braves actually try to sign Tomas is likely to hinge on their plans for Upton; it doesn’t strike me as a coincidence that news of Atlanta’s sudden interest in Tomas emerged at the same time as reports suggesting Upton is available.

Mark Bowman of MLB.com believes the Braves will trade Upton before pulling the trigger on Tomas:

To be in position to sign either Lester or Tomas, the Braves would likely first have to trade Justin Upton, who is owed $14.5 million before becoming eligible for free agency next year. Upton’s market is improved by the fact that he is being made available at a time when there are not many attractive outfielders on the free-agent market.

If the Braves expect to sign Tomas, it makes sense for them to first deal Upton in exchange for prospects, presumably pitchers. With Upton out, the team would then be free to deploy Tomas in left field or possibly even right should Evan Gattis be moved to the outfield.

 

San Diego Padres

A.J. Preller appears poised to make a splash in his first offseason as general manager of the Padres, as he’s currently on the brink of landing two of the top hitters in this year’s free-agent class.

The Padres are believed to be one of three teams in the mix to sign third baseman Pablo Sandoval, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweeted Thursday that San Diego was expected to offer him a five-year deal in the $90 to $95 million range.

Meanwhile, Preller has continued to aggressively pursue Tomas, targeting the Cuban outfielder for his universal power and middle-of-the-order potential.

From Corey Brock of MLB.com:

The Padres have scouted 24-year-old outfielder Tomas on several occasions and have also looked at him at third base, Preller said recently. A report in recent weeks discounted the Padres’ chances, but a source said Wednesday the Padres are still considering Tomas. …

… Tomas is believed to be seeking at least a five- to seven-year deal with an annual salary near $15 million, but the Tomas camp has not ruled out the possibility of signing a short-term, high-value deal that would allow him to return to the free-agent market sooner.

FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel tweeted Thursday that he’d heard the Padres were still in the mix for Tomas and were willing to offer him up to $70 million, which could be a potential steal depending on the length of the contract.

Regardless, the fact that the Padres are trying to secure not one but two impact hitters this offseason is a huge step in the right direction.

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