Tag: MLB Free Agency

Everything You Need to Know About Jung-Ho Kang, Power-Hitting Korean Shortstop

Add Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang to the list of international free agents hoping to make the jump to the major leagues in 2015.

The 27-year-old Kang is expected to be posted this offseason by the Nexen Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization, though Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports hears it’s unlikely to happen until after the winter meetings (Dec. 7 through 11).

Regardless, Kang, who batted .356/.459/.739 with a career-high 40 home runs in 117 games for Nexen this past season, will soon become one of the more sought after free agents in a class that’s thin on impact hitters, let alone ones with legitimate power from a middle-infield position.

Kang was drafted by the Hyundai Unicorns in the second round of the 2006 KBO draft and made his professional debut later that year. However, the 19-year-old’s playing time was limited, as he served primarily as a defensive replacement and appeared in only 10 games, and he didn’t help his cause by going 3-for-20 at the plate.

Unfortunately, Kang’s sophomore campaign with the Unicorns the following year was eerily similar to his professional debut, as he went just 2-for-15 and appeared in 20 games, mostly as a defensive replacement.

Kang finally received regular playing time in 2008, though the circumstances surrounding the 21-year-old’s ascent to everyday-player status was interesting, to say the least.

From Steve Sypa of Amazin’ Avenue:

In 2008, the Hyundai Unicorns disbanded, and in its place, the Woori Heroes were born. Issues between Woori Bank, individual team owners (a rarity in Asian sports, in which teams are generally a subsidiary of their corporate sponsors), and the KBO led to Woori breaking the naming deal, leaving the Heroes unable to pay most of their veteran players. The team was forced to trade most of its star players and veterans, paving the way for the 21-year-old Jung-Ho Kang to get regular playing time.

The right-handed hitting Kang made the most of the opportunity and emerged as one of the KBO’s premier young talents, batting .271/.334/.392 with 27 extra-base hits in 116 games. He continued to make strides the following year with a .286/.349/.508 batting line in 133 games, but it was Kang’s improved power (23 home runs, 33 doubles) that really put him on the map.

Kang didn’t show as much power as a 23-year-old in 2010, amassing 12 home runs and 30 doubles in 133 games, but he still managed a career-best .301 batting average to go along with an .848 OPS. Kang’s production regressed even more in 2011; he still hit a very respectable .282, but tallied only nine home runs and 22 doubles in 123 games.

The 2012 season was when everything seemed to click for Kang, as he raked at a .314 clip over 124 games while contributing 25 home runs and 32 doubles. More importantly, Kang demonstrated vastly improved plate discipline by accruing nearly as many walks (71) as strikeouts (78), and he also came out of nowhere with a career-high 21 stolen bases.

Kang failed to build off his success in 2013, batting .291 with a career-worst 109 strikeouts over 126 games, but he still showed good power and speed with 22 home runs, 21 doubles and 15 stolen bases.

And then there’s Kang’s video game numbers from his latest campaign, which basically tell the whole story: .356/.459/.739 with 40 home runs, 36 doubles and 117 RBI.

Yeah—pretty good.

But how will Kang’s robust power and production translate in the majors next season? Luckily, there’s enough video of Kang from the past two years to get a feel for his swing and general offensive strength.

At 6’0”, 210 pounds, Kang’s upright setup at the plate allows him to employ an elongated and distinct leg kick, which is relatively common among power hitters. However, Kang tries to hold his weight on his backside for as long as possible, which in turn forces him to rush his front-foot timing and prevents him from achieving a favorable point of contact. Surprisingly, he does appear to maintain good balance throughout his swing and doesn’t land as violently on his front side as you’d expect.

Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kang struggles against good velocity in the big leagues, as his swing and timing mechanism could make him susceptible to fastballs on the inner half. That being said, Kang does possess above-average bat speed to go along with raw power to all fields, and he should run into his share of pitches even if he fails to hit for average.

Defensively, Kang appears to move well at shortstop, showing good athleticism with at least average range in all directions, and he also plays the position with a sense of creativity that aids him in making difficult plays. Kang’s arm strength is probably a better fit at second base than shortstop, but his smooth transfer and arm stroke allow him to get rid of the ball quickly without sacrificing any accuracy.

C.J. Nitkowski of Fox Sports has some concerns about Kang’s ability to remain at shortstop, but he believes that Kang will able to offset any defensive shortcoming with 15-20 home runs in a given season.

Meanwhile, ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required) also expects Kang’s power to translate in the major leagues:

…I see a swing that will generate legit plus power even once he leaves his hitter-friendly home park in the Yangcheon District of Seoul. Kang has a huge leg kick and gets his lead foot down late, which could create timing issues, but the swing is rotational, and I don’t think the power surge he has had the past three years is strictly a function of the rising level of offense in the KBO

Law also has his doubts about Kang’s long-term future at shortstop, though he says he’d give Kang “every chance to show he can handle the position, especially given the scarcity in the middle infield in this free-agent crop.”

Once Nexen officially posts Kang, teams will be able to bid freely on the 27-year-old to determine negotiating rights. Should Nexen accept the highest bid, which Nitkowski estimates will be somewhere in the $5 million to $8 million range, then Kang will be clear to sign with an MLB team.

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe believes Kang will get “serious money” this offseason, and names the St. Louis Cardinals as a team that could be interested in Kang’s services. Meanwhile, a report from Global Sporting Integration (via The Korea Times) notes that the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks have all scouted Kang in Korea.

It’s still too early to say which teams stand the best chance of landing Kang this offseason, or for that matter how much they might be willing to pay, but it’s clear there won’t be a shortage of potential suitors for the 27-year-old shortstop.

 

All stats courtesy of koreabaseball.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Updating the Hottest Questions of the 2014-2015 MLB Offseason, Week 3

Major League Baseball’s offseason has just begun, and already there are all sorts of rumors and speculation—and questions—surrounding a number of free agents and trade candidates, as well as teams’ objectives and plans of attack.

Having hit on a number of topics last time, what better way to continue taking the temperature of the hot stove than by running through a batch of the hottest questions to cover the latest potential transaction action across the sport?

See, that’s a question in and of itself, although the four to follow are a bit more meaningful. Promise.

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High-Reward MLB Reclamation Projects Worth Taking a Chance on

Free agency isn’t just about which teams land the top players on the market. It’s also an opportunity for teams to find value where others don’t.

Teams are always on the hunt for potential reclamation projects, as every free-agent class features a crop of players who, for any number of reasons, are overlooked and/or undervalued on the open market. These players typically are believed to have some remaining upside and therefore represent low-risk, high-reward options at the cost of a one- or two-year deal.

Last offseason, the Miami Marlins signed third baseman Casey McGehee to a one-year, $1.1 million contract, procuring him from the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The then-31-year-old went on to win the 2014 National League Comeback Player of the Year Award, batting .287/.355/.357 with 76 RBI while playing in 160 games.

Here’s a look at some of the top reclamation projects available in this year’s free-agent class.

 

Brandon Morrow, RHP

Some pitchers simply are blessed with filthy stuff. Brandon Morrow is one of them.

Morrow, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2006 draft, was rushed to the major leagues on the merits of his stuff, logging only 16 minor league innings before winning a spot in the Mariners’ 2007 Opening Day bullpen.

Unsurprisingly, Morrow’s control was an utter mess during his three seasons (2007-09) with Seattle, as he walked 5.8 batters per nine innings and posted a 4.56 FIP. Still, the right-hander proved he could miss bats consistently in the late innings, piling up 204 strikeouts in 197.2 innings, and he also tallied 16 saves during that time frame.

The Mariners traded Morrow, 25 at the time, to the Blue Jays following the 2009 season for reliever Brandon League. Toronto decided to convert him to a full-time starter—Morrow started only 15 of his 131 games with Seattle—for the 2010 season.

Morrow pitched to a 3.49 FIP (4.16 ERA) during his first three seasons in Toronto, striking out 489 batters in 450.1 innings (9.8 K/9).

In 2010, Morrow put himself on the map with a 17-strikeout performance as part of a one-hit shutout. The following year, the right-hander led the American League with 10.19 strikeouts per nine innings. 

Things seemed to come together for Morrow in 2012, as he set new career bests with a 2.96 ERA (3.65 FIP), 1.115 WHIP and 3.0 BB/9 over 21 starts. However, he also missed 64 games due to a strained oblique muscle in what was the first of many seasons marred by injuries.

A nerve issue in his right forearm limited Morrow to only 10 starts in 2013, while a tendon sheath injury on his right index finger this past season led to a career-low 33.1 innings pitched. Overall, the right-hander made just 23 appearances (16 starts) for the Blue Jays over the past two seasons, posting a 5.65 ERA (4.78 FIP), 1.551 WHIP and 7.4 K/9 during that time frame.

As a free agent—the Blue Jays declined his $10 million option for 2015—Morrow, 30, should receive plenty of interest as a potential one-year lottery ticket since his combination of age, prior success and pure stuff make him an intriguing upside play.

Morrow showed good velocity when he was healthy over the last two seasons, but he threw especially hard out of the Blue Jays bullpen this past September, averaging 97.49 mph on his fastball while topping out at 100.72 mph. Plus, he still boasts two legit swing-and-miss pitches in his slider and splitter.

That being said, harnessing Morrow’s command will be a challenge for whoever signs him, though that could also come down to whether he’s deployed as a starter or reliever. The right-hander should offer value in either role, though his season-high innings total of 179.1 and extensive injury history means his workload will probably be managed carefully as a starter.

Morrow is likely to land a low-risk, high-reward one-year contract this offseason because, well, he’s still plenty nasty. The only question is whether he can stay on the field for an extended period of time.

 

Justin Masterson, RHP

Justin Masterson delivered a long-overdue breakout performance in 2013, posting a 3.45 ERA (3.35 FIP) with a 58 percent ground-ball rate and 195 strikeouts in 193 innings.

The Indians attempted to extend the right-hander following the season with a three-year, $45 million deal, but Masterson rejected the offer in favor of playing out his walk year, banking on another All-Star-caliber performance to drive up his future value as a free agent.

Masterson’s plan backfired, however, as he pitched to a dismal 5.51 ERA and walked 5.84 batters per nine innings over 19 starts, prompting the Indians to trade him to St. Louis before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. But the change of scenery didn’t resolve Masterson’s struggles (7.04 ERA in 30.2 innings), and he failed to make the Cardinals’ postseason roster.

However, there are signs suggesting the soon-to-be 30-year-old might be poised for a bounce-back performance next season. For starters, he maintained a strong ground-ball rate of 58.2 percent despite a career-worst 14.6 percent home-run-to-ground-ball rate and .339 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In terms of his stuff, Masterson’s sinker still induces plenty of groundballs, and he’s continued to miss bats with his slider.

However, Masterson’s command has never been great and was especially bad last season, making him an intriguing reclamation project as a free agent. The right-hander likely is looking at a one-year contract given his enormous struggles last season, but at the same time, there could be teams willing to offer him a multiyear pact.

 

Colby Rasmus, OF

Colby Rasmus enjoyed arguably the best season of his career in 2013, batting .276/.338/.501 with 22 home runs and 26 doubles in 458 plate appearances. His two other full seasons with the Blue Jays have been a much different story, a story featuring .225-or-worse batting averages, sub-.290 on-base percentages and worsening strikeout rates.

However, there’s reason to believe the 28-year-old Rasmus might still have some good seasons ahead of him. The left-handed hitter should continue to offer his usual above-average power in the coming years, as he’s an extreme fly-ball hitter who drives the ball to all fields with authority.

The only potential impediment to Rasmus’ power output is his health, as he’s spent time on the disabled list in three of the last four seasons. Lastly, the center fielder’s defense is bound to improve compared to his subpar showing in 2014.

It’s difficult to predict how the market will treat Rasmus, arguably the top reclamation project in this year’s free-agent class. While some teams might offer him a cheap multiyear deal, Rasmus’ age and untapped potential make him a strong candidate to sign a one-year contract, hoping that a bounce-back performance nets him a big payday next offseason.

 

Josh Johnson, RHP

Josh Johnson was utterly dominant from 2009 to 2011, ranking first among all qualified starters in FIP (2.74) and fourth in ERA (2.64). The right-hander also ranked 13th in fWAR (13.0), which was particularly impressive considering he made only 70 starts and logged 453 innings during that time frame.

Johnson’s breakout year was 2010, when he led the National League with a 2.30 ERA and 180 ERA+ and paced the major leagues with a 2.41 FIP. He opened the 2011 season with a 1.64 ERA over his first nine starts, but shoulder inflammation in mid-May resulted in a trip to the disabled list and ultimately sidelined him for the remainder of the season.

Johnson rebounded in 2012 to post a 3.81 ERA (3.40 FIP) over 31 starts in what turned out to be his final season in Miami, as the Marlins sent him, Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle to the Blue Jays in a blockbuster trade.

But Johnson—a year away from free agency—struggled with his new team, as he registered a 6.20 ERA (4.62 FIP) over 16 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a forearm strain. Johnson’s free-agent stock took another hit during the offseason after he underwent surgery to remove bone spurs.

The San Diego Padres ended up taking a flier on Johnson last winter in the form of a one-year, $8 million deal, but he ended up needing Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season.

The 30-year-old is looking at a much smaller one-year deal this offseason, and he’ll have to prove he can still make an impact against big-league hitters. That said, it’s not surprising that five to six teams have already reached out to the right-hander, according to a tweet from Dennis Lin of the U-T San Diego.

After all, we’ve all seen what a healthy Josh Johnson is capable of.

 

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball and Baseball-Reference.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


10 MLB Free Agents Whose Values Have Peaked at the Perfect Time

There are three types of MLB free agents.

There are those who are flat-out special and have been for some time. Then there are those coming off of their best season as they head into free agency. And sometimes, a free agent is both.

You can consider Russell Martin an example of a special player—offense, defense and leadership all wrapped up into one right-handed-hitting catcher—who played his finest baseball in 2014, parlaying it into a five-year, $82 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.

This list will not focus on guys like Martin—for the most part. There are a couple of free agents who are (or were) stars but who needed to take advantage of certain situations to set them up for the most money this offseason.

By and large, however, we will look at players who’ve been good for several seasons but, thanks to exceptional efforts in 2014, solidified their spot as a free agent who will demand a longer-term contract for more money than they would have received had they simply performed to their past capabilities.

Here are 10 MLB free agents, presented in alphabetical order, whose value has peaked at the perfect time.

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Changes MLB Can Make to Fix the Qualifying Offer Dilemma in Free Agency

The qualifying offer slump now has reached epic proportions, to the point where Major League Baseball should be at least a little worried that this still relatively recent format just isn’t going to hack it.

On Nov. 10, all 12 free agents who had received a qualifying offer (QO) this offseason rejected, meaning in the three-year history of this new wrinkle, the QO has gone a whopping and disturbing 0-for-34.

That’s right: Not a single one of the 34 players since 2012 has been enticed into inking a one-year contract at the average of the 125 highest player salaries—even though that rate might be above what some of them would receive on an average annual value (AAV) basis.

Here’s really where the problem comes in: The QO is attached to draft-pick compensation for no good reason.

If a team signs a player who declined the offer, said team loses a valuable first-round selection the ensuing June. (Unless it’s one of the first 10 picks, which are protected; in that case, the team forfeits its next-highest pick instead.)

This can, in some cases, drastically impact the market for such a free agent, because if teams are unwilling to surrender a selection (and the allotment from the draft bonus pool that comes with it), those clubs won’t go after a player in which they otherwise might have interest.

Meanwhile, the club that loses a QO decliner is rewarded with another draft choice (a compensation pick) at the end of the first round once the free agent signs elsewhere.

This allows teams to gamble that it’s worth tendering the QO and then hope a free agent will turn it down, thus simultaneously netting a draft pick for the team and undercutting the player’s market.

Now, this isn’t necessarily a big problem in the case of the top-tier free agents.

When a team already is willing to cough up nine figures to land, say, Max Scherzer or Pablo Sandoval this year, or Robinson Cano or Jacoby Ellsbury last year, surrendering a draft pick isn’t exactly a major deterrent.

But when it comes to the non-elite free agents, the QO can hinder the market—sometimes too much.

Think back to last winter, when Nelson Cruz’s asking price started out at about $75 million—a number he likely would not have landed even without the QO rejection, partly because he also was coming off a 50-game performance-enhancing drug-related suspension—only to drop until he had to sign a one-year pact with the Baltimore Orioles. In late February. For $8 million.

In the end, Cruz, who wound up being a massive bargain because he led MLB with 40 homers in 2014, would have made nearly twice as much had he simply said, “$14.1 million for a year? Sounds good to me!”

And he didn’t even get the worst of it. Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales said pish-posh to the QO—and then couldn’t find a team willing to relinquish a draft choice by inking them. Like, not one.

Here’s what Drew said to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe when he was still unsigned in mid-March:

You fight for the right to get to free agency, but then it takes a little bit away with draft-pick compensation attached to it. Nobody wants to give up that draft pick.

It’s unusual because I’m an experienced player, but because there’s a draft pick hanging over your head, it’s not really the free agency without strings attached.

Drew eventually returned to the Boston Red Sox for about $10 million in late May—two full months into the season—and with his tail firmly between his legs.

Morales had to wait until after the 2014 draft in June before the Minnesota Twins took pity on him with a prorated $12 million deal.

Drew and Morales, perhaps in part because they didn’t have a normal spring training and missed so much time, had especially poor 2014 seasons.

Those two, and Cruz—as well as the trio’s agents—obviously deserve a huge chunk of the blame for completely misreading their markets.

If you think the players and their reps learned their lesson, though, think again: Both Cruz and starting pitcher Ervin Santana, who also turned down the QO last offseason (more on him below), are going through the process all over again this year.

But that doesn’t mean the current qualifying offer system, which has gone 0-for-34 and resulted in its share of unintended consequences for players and teams alike, couldn’t use fixing—or at least an adjustment or two.

Here are some suggestions.

 

Up the Salary Average Ante

Instead of making the QO worth an average of the top 125 player salaries, make it an average of, say, the top 100 or even the top 75 AAVs.

The offer still would be only for one season, but that would hike up the pay to the point where one of two things would be bound to happen.

Either teams would be much more hesitant about tendering the QO to a borderline candidate for fear of having to risk $18 million or $20 million being added to the budget. Or some players would have to take it, if only because the money would be too good to pass up.

 

Two Years Instead of One

If these first three years of the QO have taught us anything, it’s that players obviously value some sort of stability in their contracts, meaning multiple years often is preferable to a higher AAV.

Turning the QO from a one-year deal into a two-year pact would mean a bigger commitment from the team, which again might make some squads less likely to extend a QO unless they know they want the player.

And the players at least would receive a little more security going forward. Maybe then a free agent presented with a QO actually might accept, putting an end to this ugly 0-for-34 rut.

 

A Trade Shouldn’t Matter

Under the current rules, a free-agent-to-be who is traded midseason cannot be presented with a QO at the end of the year.

This is primarily to prevent teams from stocking up on expiring players via trade and then reaping the draft-pick compensation rewards, something that had been happening to a small extent under the previous format.

Thing is, that can cause two similar free agents—one who was traded, one who wasn’t—to be valued very differently on the open market.

This is exactly what happened a year ago with Matt Garza and Ervin Santana, two similarly talented mid-rotation right-handers.

Garza was ineligible for a QO since he’d been traded from the Chicago Cubs to the Texas Rangers in July 2013. His market last winter was much more robust and natural, since he wasn’t tied to any compensation, and he landed a four-year, $50 million deal in late January.

Santana, meanwhile, stayed with the Kansas City Royals for the entire 2013 campaign, rejected the QO and then, because his market was artificially undercut by being anchored to a lost draft choice, he had to settle for a one-year deal worth $14.1 million from the Atlanta Braves in mid-March—after spring training was underway.

As former big league pitcher-turned-analyst CJ Nitkowski writes for Fox Sports’ Just a Bit Outside: “Garza benefited from the Cubs being a bad team in 2013. Why should players who weren’t moved during the year be penalized in free agency while those who were traded gain an advantage? They shouldn’t.”

 

Forget Forfeiting a Pick Altogether

Ultimately, this suggestion would address the primary problem with regard to the QO: loss aversion.

When the free agent is not an elite, top-tier player, clubs have shown an inclination toward not losing their draft pick rather than toward focusing on the addition of talent.

Perhaps the simplest solution? Do away with the concept that a team that signs a QO-rejecting free agent has to give up a selection in the following draft.

The club that loses the player still can be compensated with a pick after Round 1—same as now—but eliminate the penalty element for the signing squad on the other end. That way, the only buyer’s remorse comes if the player doesn’t live up to his contract.

At some point, a player will accept the qualifying offer, which can’t go oh-for-forever. But it hasn’t happened yet, three years in. Maybe it will next year. Or maybe only after MLB makes some changes to the system when the current collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2016 season.

 

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.comBaseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Everything You Need to Know About Yoan Moncada, 19-Year-Old Cuban Phenom

The sweepstakes for outfielder Yasmany Tomas appears to be winding down.

The 24-year-old outfielder could sign with a team as soon as this weekend, according to Jorge Arangure of Vice Sports, and when he does, he’s expected to become the highest-paid Cuban player in baseball history. Yet, amazingly, Tomas isn’t the Cuban prospect everyone is talking about.

That honor belongs to Yoan Moncada, whose open workout in Guatemala on Wednesday was seen by an “estimated 60-70 scouts,” per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. The 19-year-old infielder has quickly emerged as one of the more hyped prospects in recent memory and is expected to destroy the record for spending on an amateur player.

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Moncada is expected to receive $30 to $40 million, putting him in the same range as fellow Cubans Yoenis Cespedes ($36 million) and Yasiel Puig ($42 million).

The only difference is that Moncada’s age and lack of professional experience will make him an amateur international free agent and therefore subject to international spending restrictions.

So what does that mean? Well, any team willing to give Moncada $30 to $40 million basically will be ignoring its bonus pool, as they’ll be forced to pay a 100 percent luxury on all overages and face other spending limitations in subsequent years.

But before we get too far into the specifics of Moncada’s potential deal, let’s take a look at the guy set to rewrite the international market.

 

Background

Moncada debuted with Cienfuegos in Serie Nacional in 2012-13 as a 17-year-old, playing alongside 2014 American League Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu. The switch-hitter enjoyed a strong rookie season, batting .283/.414/.348 in 172 plate appearances to go along with 13 steals.

Ben Badler of Baseball America notes some of Moncada’s other accomplishments from that season:

Moncada also made his mark at the league’s All-Star Game, where Cuba holds certain skill competitions in addition to a Home Run Derby. Among the events are races to first base and around the bases. At the 2012-13 All-Star Game, Moncada won both races, beating Rusney Castillo, a 70 runner on the 20-80 scale, and Guillermo Heredia, a 60 runner who started in center field in the 2013 World Baseball Classic.

The 2013-14 season was Moncada’s last in Serie Nacional, and he went out on a high note after batting .273/.365/.406 in 195 plate appearances.

Back in early November, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported Moncada had defected from Cuba and established residency in Guatemala. However, the lack of information surrounding his departure from the island, as well as the relative ease with which he established residency, has raised eyebrows within baseball’s inner circles, says Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs:

It’s assumed by people in the international baseball industry that Moncada is at some juncture in the same process that Puig was in and that Moncada will be ‘found’ once the right people get paid, which could be any day or much longer. It may not be pretty, but this is what elite Cuban baseball players have to do to get paid these days.

Passan suggests something similar and wonders whether the Cuban government truly allowed Moncada to leave:

They wonder how he got to Guatemala, and how he did so on what his handlers say is a legal Cuban passport, meaning the government OK’d his departure, something never before done for a high-level ballplayer. Further, they speculate how much money it’s going to take to sign him. And then they try to understand how one kid from Cuba could change the entire structure of amateur talent around the world.

He goes on to mention that Moncada will become a free agent once Major League Baseball has finished its standard investigation into his residency in Guatemala and the Office of Foreign Assets Control has officially cleared him to sign with a team.

 

Scouting Report

I’ll be the first to admit that, like most people, I’ve never seen Moncada play in person. That said, it’s clear we’re talking about a potentially elite prospect.

Per McDaniel:

Moncada is 19 and packs a lot of tools into his 6’1″, 210-pound frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with above-average raw power from both sides of the plate and the tools/skills to stick in the infield, possibly at shortstop. Moncada is the quick-twitch type with big bat speed that clubs covet, and his track record of hitting at big tournaments and in Cuba’s professional leagues is excellent considering his age. 

Meanwhile, Mayo reached out to sources that attended Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala on Wednesday, with one scouting director saying the teenager is “worth going way over your international spending pool.” Mayo added:

Different sources had Moncada timed differently in the 60-yard dash, though he ran somewhere in the 6.56- to 6.6-second range. That gives him a 70 for his speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, or close to the top of the scale. He reportedly looked better at third and second than he did at shortstop, with enough arm from any infield position. Moncada swung the bat well from both sides of the plate, showing plus raw power both ways. The only negative was that he didn’t face live pitching, hitting only off of a BP pitcher. When asked to grade out Moncada‘s tools based on this workout, in combination with previous reports, one scout gave the following grades:

Hit – 60
Power – 60
Speed – 70
Arm – 60
Field – 50

There is no available video of Moncada at the moment, so unfortunately all we have to go on are industry articles and various reports. However, it’s enough to know that if the baseball community is this excited about Moncada, then we should be, too.

 

Free Agency

It’s a foregone conclusion that the team that signs Moncada will set a record for spending on international amateur free agents and then be forced to pay a 100 percent tax on the overage.

The real question is: How soon will Moncada be able to sign?

McDaniel shares his insight on the matter:

If Moncada is declared a free agent between now and July 2, 2015, then [the Red Sox and New York Yankees] have an advantage as they have huge revenues and have already gone over their pool amount and paid the penalty. To sign him, any team would go over their pool and pay the overage, but teams that are under their pool would want their year to go over their pool to also include a full crop of July 2 players to make up for the two-year penalty.

Conversely, if Moncada becomes a free agent any time from July 2, 2015 to 2017, those two clubs have no chance to bid on him because of the two-year penalty. 

Suddenly it makes more sense why there were 60 to 70 scouts in attendance at his showcase Wednesday. Yet Passan still pegs a select few teams as the potential front-runners to sign Moncada:

So far, the closest any team has come to shattering its pool with one player is the Los Angeles Angels, who signed 20-year-old infielder Roberto Baldoquin for $8 million last week. Moncada is considered a far superior prospect, and with the Angels, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox among the teams that have exceeded their 2014 pools by 15 percent, the incentive exists to go strong on Moncada. Few avenues still exist to outright buy amateur talent, and as MLB goes forward, this may represent among the last.

The seemingly imminent sweepstakes for Moncada will be something baseball has never dealt with before, though it’s yet to be seen what action, if any, the league will take to prevent such a deal. However, keep in mind that any team willing to spend beyond its international bonus pool is free to do so but will be subject to the aforementioned taxes and signing restrictions in future years.

The process behind Moncada becoming a free agent may take some time, especially if there are concerns regarding his departure from Cuba. But make no mistake about it: The teenage phenom has already seared his name into our minds.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Updating the Hottest Questions of the 2014-15 MLB Offseason, Week 2

Major League Baseball’s offseason has just begun, and already there are all sorts of rumors and speculation—and questions—surrounding a number of free agents and trade candidates, as well as teams’ objectives and plans of attack.

Having hit on a number of topics last time, what better way to continue taking the temperature of the hot stove than by running through a batch of the hottest questions to cover the latest potential transaction action across the sport?

See, that’s a question in and of itself, although the five to follow are a bit more meaningful. Promise.

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Ranking the 10 Best Power Hitters Available in Free Agency, Trade Talks

More and more, pitching is dominating Major League Baseball, which means players who provide any kind of offense, and especially power, are coming at a premium on the trade front or in the free-agent market.

Big bats are getting harder and harder to come by, and those that are available tend to come with some sort of flaw or concern, be it age, injury history or contract.

That’s why it’s helpful to know which players who can be labeled “power hitters” are the best targets for teams to go after this offseason.

The aim here is to rank based on the players’ overall skill set and past/future performance with a sprinkle of value mixed in too. But the focus is on those who are not only available, but also can be called power hitters legitimately.

That means you won’t find, say, free agent Pablo Sandoval and trade target Jason Heyward on the pages to follow. They might be better all-around than all but a few of the names, and they do have some pop—but they’re not quite power-hitter-ish.

This also is rooted in projected playing time and role, so power-only sluggers, like free agents Mark Reynolds or Jonny Gomes, who have plenty of power but aren’t everyday players, didn’t make the cut.

Just the same, players with little to no logical chance of being traded, like Giancarlo Stanton, who has engaged in extension talks with the Miami Marlins, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, weren’t considered, either.

Ultimately, think about these rankings like so: a general manager of a contender in need of a big bat and with some payroll to spare might consider trying to obtain these players in this order.

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Japanese Star Kenta Maeda’s Scouting Report, Top Potential Suitors

The (multi) million-dollar question this offseason is whether Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda will be posted by Nippon Professional Baseball’s Hiroshima Carp.

Maeda was the subject of rumors last offseason as well, after the 26-year-old right-hander openly expressed a desire to pursue a career in Major League Baseball. However, with four years of team control remaining at that time, the Carp chose not to post their top pitcher, keeping him in Japan for at least one more year.

Now, with the free agency underway, speculation regarding Maeda’s future in the States is once again picking up steam. But according to a recent report from The Japan Times (h/t MLB Trade Rumors), Hiroshima Carp owner Hajime Matsuda hasn’t decided whether the club will make Maeda available through the posting system.

“We have the right. We would like to let him go, but based on his production this year it will be difficult,” Matsuda said.

When Maeda said last offseason that he’d like to be posted, he was coming off a strong campaign in which he went 15-7 in 26 starts with a 2.10 ERA, 0.962 WHIP and 158 strikeouts in 175.2 innings. The year before that, the right-hander posted a career-best 1.53 ERA with 171 strikeouts in 206.1 innings and allowed only six home runs.

Maeda took a slight step backward (at least by his standards) this past season, as Matsuda alluded to, going 11-9 in 28 starts while posting a 2.60 ERA and allowing 12 home runs in 187 innings.

Yet, Maeda’s body of work speaks for itself: 2.44 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 1,058 strikeouts (7.3 K/9) and 278 walks (1.9 BB/9) in 1,303.1 innings spanning seven seasons. He’s also thrown 23 complete games, 10 of which were shutouts.

Back in mid-October, Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required) was on hand for what might have been Maeda’s final start in NPB, the first game of a best-of-three semifinal matchup between Hiroshima and the Hanshin Tigers.

In the game, Maeda allowed one run on six hits, one walk and one hit batsman over six innings, striking out six. The one run he allowed was a home run in his final inning, though, and Hanshin went on to win, 1-0.

However, while his final line may suggest a strong outing, Badler wasn’t overly impressed.

He praised the right-hander’s fastball in the outing, which sat in the 89-to-94-mph range, noting that he mixed in both four- and two-seamers, and featured “crisp” command of both pitches.

Badler also had good things to say (subscription required) about Maeda’s fastball following his final regular-season start, especially in regard to his velocity:

Maeda’s velocity was impressive, ranging from 90-94 mph and hitting 94 four times. In previous outings, he’s thrown anywhere from 87-94 mph, but he didn’t throw a fastball below 90 today and he spotted it well. Maeda pitched mostly off his four-seamer, though he mixed in a handful of two-seam fastballs with a little more armside run, too.

Unfortunately, Maeda’s slider doesn’t receive glowing reviews like his fastball, which is troubling because it’s his primary secondary offering. In his playoff outing, Badler notes that the right-hander threw the pitch 42 times in 106 pitches, generating 13 whiffs.

However, Badler worries that Maeda’s slider command could be an issue against big league hitters:

It’s not a wipeout slider, but it’s 80-83 mph and usually anywhere from a 50 to 55 on the 20-80 scale, maybe tickling plus if you really like when he snaps off a good one. The problem is that Maeda hung way many sliders up in the zone, but for the most part, the Tigers didn’t capitalize on those opportunities. Against a major league lineup, a pitcher who leaves that many sliders flat and above the belt is rarely going to get through six innings with only one run on the scoreboard.

As for the rest of Maeda’s arsenal, he throws a curveball in the low 70s with a huge vertical break that rivals that of Barry Zito and Ted Lilly, according to Clint Hulsey of I R Fast. The right-hander also will mix in a cutter in the high 80s in his starts, as well as a changeup that comes in a few ticks slower, the latter of which “flashes average,” per Badler.

So what kind of pitcher should we expect Maeda to be should he be posted?

Based on reports of his arsenal, it’s clear that Maeda isn’t the next Yu Darvish or Masahiro Tanaka—not a front-of-the-rotation starter.

However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a spot for him in a big league rotation.

At 26, the 6’0”, 160-pound right-hander possesses three average-or-better pitches with room left to develop. Sure, there is uncertainty as to how his stuff and approach will translate in the major leagues, but that’s also been the case with every international pitcher, and the majority of the time, teams know what they’re doing. Based on his deep arsenal and strong command profile, Maeda seemingly has the floor of a high-end No. 4 starter for a major league team. At the same time, I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he surpassed that rather conservative projection.

Any team interested in landing Maeda can make a run at him (if he’s posted) by submitting a bid no larger than $20 million, a rule established last offseason that facilitated the sweepstakes for Masahiro Tanaka, with negotiating rights going to the high bidder. Therefore, expect a host of clubs, likely many of the same ones that bid on Tanaka, to target the right-hander.

The Red Sox already have expressed interest in Maeda, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe:

The Red Sox have had multiple scouts and executives watch Hiroshima Carp righthander Kenta Maeda, including his most recent start. Maeda will be posted in November and it would be surprising if the Red Sox didn’t post the $25 million fee for the chance to negotiate with Maeda, who could fill one of their five rotation slots. Maeda is considered a smaller version of Masahiro Tanaka.

Meanwhile, Nick Piecoro of AZCentral.com believes that the Diamondbacks will pursue Maeda after coming up short last year with Tanaka.

And for what it’s worth, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors believes Maeda, whom he lists as the offseason’s 12th-best free agent, will end up with the Astros.

Maeda’s future price tag, should he be posted, is a whole different story; it could come down to his performance in the upcoming five-game All-Star Series in Japan against an MLB roster loaded with stars. (Check out MLB.com for more on the series, which begins next Wednesday.)

Regardless, it’s not going to be anywhere in the ballpark of the $155 million the Yankees gave to Tanaka last winter. And in case you’re wondering, the Rangers paid nearly $108 million to acquire Yu Darvish in 2012, including a winning bid of $51,703,411 for negotiating rights.

One thing is certain: We’ll all have a better idea about Maeda next week after watching him face many of MLB’s premier hitters.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Free Agency 2015: Top Free Agent/Trade Buzz for Every Team

One week into November, the MLB offseason rumor mill is kicking into full swing, as teams begin kicking the tires on this year’s class of free agents and trade targets.

Keeping up with all of the latest rumor news around the league is no easy task, so this article will provide a quick rundown of the most recent buzz surrounding all 30 teams.

The following has been provided for each team:

  • The latest notable rumor(s)
  • The source of the rumor(s)
  • A pertinent quote summing up the rumor(s)
  • Analysis of the rumor(s)

As always, MLBTradeRumors remains an invaluable resource during the MLB offseason, and a tip of the hat goes to them for providing a clearinghouse for all things rumor to sort through.

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